Two heads are better than one: benefits of joint models for ALS trials

Composite endpoint for ALS clinical trials based on patient preference: Patient-Ranked Order of Function (PROOF)

BACKGROUND

Patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) show considerable variation in symptoms. Treatments targeting an overall improvement in symptomatology may not address what the majority of patients consider to be most important. Here, we propose a composite endpoint for ALS clinical trials that weighs the improvement in symptoms compared with what the patient population actually wants.

METHODS

An online questionnaire was sent out to a population-based registry in The Netherlands. Patients with ALS were asked to score functional domains with a validated self-reported questionnaire, and rank the order of importance of each domain. This information was used to estimate variability in patient preferences and to develop the Patient-Ranked Order of Function (PROOF) endpoint.

RESULTS

There was extensive variability in patient preferences among the 433 responders. The majority of the patients (62.1%) preferred to prioritise certain symptoms over others when evaluating treatments. The PROOF endpoint was established by comparing each patient in the treatment arm to each patient in the placebo arm, based on their preferred order of functional domains. PROOF averages all pairwise comparisons, and reflects the probability that a patient receiving treatment has a better outcome on domains that are most important to them, compared with a patient receiving placebo. By means of simulation we illustrate how incorporating patient preference may upgrade or downgrade trial results.

CONCLUSIONS

The PROOF endpoint provides a balanced patient-focused analysis of the improvement in function and may help to refine the risk-benefit assessment of new treatments for ALS.

Current trends in the clinical trial landscape for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To review the current developments in the design and conduct of clinical trials for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), illustrated by a critical appraisal of ClinicalTrials.gov.

RECENT FINDINGS

In total, 63 clinical trials were included in the analysis, of which 13 phase 1, 35 phase 2 and 15 phase 3. Virtually all phase 3 clinical trials can be classified as randomized, placebo controlled, whereas this is only true for 57% of the phase 2 clinical trials. There are promising developments in the routes of drug administration, eligibility criteria, efficacy endpoints and overall trial design. Some of these innovative approaches may, however, not fulfil clinical trial guidelines or regulatory requirements. This could delay the development of effective therapy or hamper our ability to determine whether a treatment is truly (in)effective. The initiation of trial consortia comprising patient organizations, academia, industry and funding bodies may significantly strengthen the future clinical trial landscape for ALS.

SUMMARY

The ALS clinical trial landscape is currently highly active with several promising innovative developments and therapeutic options. By further refinement of evidence-based guidelines, and alignment of our current endeavours, we may soon be able to positively impact the lives of people living with ALS.

Cognitive reserve in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS): a population-based longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is often associated with cognitive and/or behavioural impairment. Cognitive reserve (CR) may play a protective role in offsetting cognitive impairment. This study examined the relationship between CR and longitudinal change in cognition in an Irish ALS cohort.

METHODS

Longitudinal neuropsychological assessment was carried out on 189 patients over 16 months using the Edinburgh cognitive and behavioural ALS screen (ECAS) and an additional battery of neuropsychological tests. CR was measured by combining education, occupation and physical activity data. Joint longitudinal and time-to-event models were fitted to investigate the associations between CR, performance at baseline and decline over time while controlling for non-random drop-out.

RESULTS

CR was a significant predictor of baseline neuropsychological performance, with high CR patients performing better than those with medium or low CR. Better cognitive performance in high CR individuals was maintained longitudinally for ECAS, social cognition, executive functioning and confrontational naming. Patients displayed little cognitive decline over the course of the study, despite controlling for non-random drop-out.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that CR plays a role in the presentation of cognitive impairment at diagnosis but is not protective against cognitive decline. However, further research is needed to examine the interaction between CR and other objective correlates of cognitive impairment in ALS.

Critical design considerations for time-to-event endpoints in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis clinical trials

BACKGROUND

Funding and resources for low prevalent neurodegenerative disorders such as amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) are limited, and optimising their use is vital for efficient drug development. In this study, we review the design assumptions for pivotal ALS clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints and provide optimised settings for future trials.

METHODS

We extracted design settings from 13 completed placebo-controlled trials. Optimal assumptions were estimated using parametric survival models in individual participant data (n=4991). Designs were compared in terms of sample size, trial duration, drug use and costs.

RESULTS

Previous trials overestimated the hazard rate by 18.9% (95% CI 3.4% to 34.5%, p=0.021). The median expected HR was 0.56 (range 0.33-0.66). Additionally, we found evidence for an increasing mean hazard rate over time (Weibull shape parameter of 2.03, 95% CI 1.93 to 2.15, p<0.001), which affects the design and planning of future clinical trials. Incorporating accrual time and assuming an increasing hazard rate at the design stage reduced sample size by 33.2% (95% CI 27.9 to 39.4), trial duration by 17.4% (95% CI 11.6 to 23.3), drug use by 14.3% (95% CI 9.6 to 19.0) and follow-up costs by 21.2% (95% CI 15.6 to 26.8).

CONCLUSIONS

Implementing distributional knowledge and incorporating accrual at the design stage could achieve large gains in the efficiency of ALS clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints. We provide an open-source platform that helps investigators to make more accurate sample size calculations and optimise the use of their available resources.