Predictive value of the Essen Stroke Risk Score and Ankle Brachial Index in acute ischaemic stroke patients from 85 German stroke units

Association of plaque characteristics with long-term stroke recurrence in patients with intracranial atherosclerotic disease: a 3D high-resolution MRI-based cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the predictive ability of plaque characteristics for long-term stroke recurrence among patients with symptomatic intracranial atherosclerotic disease (ICAD).

METHODS

This cohort study included 132 patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) attributed to ICAD who were recruited between July 2017 and December 2020 and followed until stroke recurrence or December 2021. Plaque surface irregularity, degree of stenosis, plaque burden, remodeling ratio, enhancement ratio, and intraplaque hemorrhage were assessed with 3-dimensional high-resolution magnetic resonance vessel wall imaging (3D HR-MRI). Data were analyzed using Cox models, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis.

RESULTS

Of the 132 patients, during a median follow-up of 2.8 years, stroke recurrence occurred in 35 patients. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of stroke recurrence was 3.15 (1.34-7.42) per 10% increase in plaque burden and 2.17 (1.27-3.70) for enhancement ratio. The area under the curve (AUC) to predict stroke recurrence was 0.725 (95% CI 0.629-0.822) for plaque burden, 0.692 (95% CI 0.593-0.792) for enhancement ratio, and only 0.595 (95% CI 0.492-0.699) for the Essen stroke risk score. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis further demonstrated significant differences in survival of free recurrent stroke between patients with plaque burden or enhancement ratio below and above the optimum cut-offs (both p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Higher plaque burden and enhancement ratio are independent risk factors for long-term stroke recurrence among patients with symptomatic ICAD, and valuable imaging markers for predicting and stratifying risk of stroke recurrence.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

In patients with symptomatic ICAD, the results of this high-resolution magnetic resonance vessel wall imaging study have potential implications for optimal management of intracranial plaques and secondary prevention of stroke recurrence based on plaque burden and enhancement ratio.

KEY POINTS

• Identification of intracranial plaque characteristics responsible for stroke recurrence is essential to preventing stroke recurrence in patients with symptomatic intracranial atherosclerotic disease. • Higher plaque burden and enhancement ratio are independent risk factors for stroke recurrence. • Plaque burden and enhancement ratio are valuable imaging markers in the prediction and stratification of the risk of stroke recurrence.

Carotid plaque score and ischemic stroke risk stratification through a combination of B-mode and contrast-enhanced ultrasound in patients with low and intermediate carotid stenosis

Objective

The occurrence of ischemic stroke (IS) is closely related to the characteristics of carotid plaque (CP). Due to the effect of stroke risk stratification based on B-mode ultrasound (US) and contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) that has not been studied in patients with low and intermediate carotid stenosis, we construct and validate a CP score and ischemic stroke risk stratification (ISRS) using a combination of B-mode and CEUS, in order to provide new convenient strategies to stratify these patients to prevent stroke.

Materials and methods

This retrospective study evaluated 705 patients with low and intermediate carotid stenosis who underwent B-mode and CEUS from November 2021 to April 2023. Qualitative B-mode and CEUS features of carotid plaques were analyzed using a univariable and multivariable logistic regression to construct the CP score. Then, we combined the CP score with Essen stroke risk score (ESRS) to develop ISRS.

Results

This study included a total of 705 patients with low and intermediate carotid stenosis, of which 394 were symptomatic patients (with a mean age of 71.03 ± 10.48 years) and 311 were asymptomatic patients (with a mean age of 65.13 ± 10.31 years). Plaque echogenicity, plaque morphology, carotid intima-media thickness in B-mode US and intraplaque neovascularization grading and perfusion pattern in CEUS were significantly associated with IS. The ISRS incorporating these five predictors and ESRS showed good discrimination and calibration in both primary cohort [area under the curve (AUC), 0.91; Hosmer-Lemeshow test, p = 0.903] and validation cohort (AUC, 0.84; Hosmer-Lemeshow test, p = 0.886).

Conclusion

We developed an effective and practical tool to identify and stratify patients with low and intermediate carotid stenosis, based on the CP score and ISRS estimation. Our study may provide new insights into managing patients with no indication of surgery.

The Predictive Value of Essen and SPI-II on the Risk of 5-Year Recurrence in Chinese Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke

Background

The risk prediction score for stroke recurrence is an important tool for stratifying patients based on the risk of cerebrovascular events and selecting potential preventive treatments.

Objective

The study aimed to validate the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) and Stroke Prognosis Instrument II (SPI-II) for predicting long-term risk of stroke recurrence and combined vascular events in Chinese patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS).

Methods

A total of 876 consecutive patients with non-atrial fibrillation AIS were recruited. The Kaplan-Meier (KM) method was used to estimate the cumulative incidence of stroke recurrence and combined vascular events in different subgroups stratified by the ESRS and SPI-II scores. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated to evaluate the predictive value of the two scores for stroke recurrence and combined vascular events.

Results

The KM estimate for 5-year cumulative incidence of stroke recurrence and combined vascular events was 28.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 25.4-32.0) and 35.6% (95% CI, 32.3-38.9), respectively, in Chinese AIS patients. The risk of stroke recurrence and combined vascular events were increased significantly with increasing ESRS and SPI-II scores. The ESRS and SPI-II scores had similar predictive accuracy for stroke recurrence (AUC 0.57 [95% CI 0.52-0.64] vs 0.59 [95% CI 0.55-0.64]) and combined vascular events (AUC 0.59 [95% CI 0.55-0.63] vs 0.62 [95% CI 0.58-0.66]) at 5 years.

Conclusion

In Chinese patients with AIS, both ESRS and SPI-II scores were able to stratify the risk of 5-year recurrent stroke and combined vascular events. The predictive power of the two scores were modest and a prediction model suitable for Chinese IS populations is needed.

Ticagrelor Aspirin vs Clopidogrel Aspirin in CYP2C19 Loss-of-Function Carriers With Minor Stroke or TIA Stratified by Risk Profile

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Genotype data of the Clopidogrel with Aspirin in Acute Minor Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack (CHANCE) trial showed that efficacy of clopidogrel aspirin depended on CYP2C19 genotype and risk profile. A stratification of patients who carried CYP2C19 loss-of-function (LOF) alleles according to the risk of recurrent stroke may be important for selecting optimal antiplatelet therapy. We aimed to compare the efficacy and safety of ticagrelor aspirin with clopidogrel aspirin in CYP2C19 LOF carriers with minor stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) stratified by risk profile.

METHODS

Data were obtained from Ticagrelor or Clopidogrel with Aspirin in High-Risk Patients with Acute Nondisabling Cerebrovascular Events II (CHANCE-2) trial. Low-risk and high-risk profiles were defined by Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) (<3 [low risk] and ≥3 [high risk], respectively).

RESULTS

A total of 6,412 CYP2C19 LOF carriers were enrolled; ticagrelor aspirin was associated with a reduced risk of primary outcome (new stroke within 90-day follow-up) in patients at low risk (hazard ratio [HR], 0.65; 95% CI, 0.48-0.82), but not in those at high risk (HR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.73-1.29), compared with clopidogrel aspirin (p = 0.02 for interaction). Secondary outcomes generally went in the same direction as the primary outcome. The primary safety outcome of severe or moderate bleeding did not differ based on risk profile (p = 0.24 for interaction), although the incidence of total bleeding was greater with ticagrelor aspirin than with clopidogrel aspirin among patients at low risk (p < 0.01 for interaction). Analysis in the per-protocol population yielded similar results.

DISCUSSION

This post hoc analysis of CHANCE-2 trial showed that CYP2C19 LOF carriers with minor stroke or TIA at low risk of recurrent stroke received a greater benefit from ticagrelor aspirin than from clopidogrel aspirin.

CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE

This study provides Class II evidence that CYP2C19 LOF carriers with minor stroke or TIA at low risk, but not at high risk, of recurrent stroke (by the ESRS) received a greater benefit from ticagrelor aspirin than from clopidogrel aspirin.

TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION

URL: www.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov. Unique identifier: NCT04078737.

Association between CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, ATRIA, and Essen Stroke Risk Scores and Unsuccessful Recanalization after Endovascular Thrombectomy in Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients

Background: The CHADS₂, CHA₂DS₂-VASc, ATRIA, and Essen scores have been developed for predicting vascular outcomes in stroke patients. We investigated the association between these stroke risk scores and unsuccessful recanalization after endovascular thrombectomy (EVT). Methods: From the nationwide multicenter registry (Selection Criteria in Endovascular Thrombectomy and Thrombolytic therapy (SECRET)) (Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02964052), we consecutively included 501 patients who underwent EVT. We identified pre-admission stroke risk scores in each included patient. Results: Among 501 patients who underwent EVT, 410 (81.8%) patients achieved successful recanalization (mTICI ≥ 2b). Adjusting for body mass index and p < 0.1 in univariable analysis revealed the association between all stroke risk scores and unsuccessful recanalization (CHADS₂ score: odds ratio (OR) 1.551, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.198–2.009, p = 0.001; CHA₂DS₂VASc score: OR 1.269, 95% CI 1.080–1.492, p = 0.004; ATRIA score: OR 1.089, 95% CI 1.011–1.174, p = 0.024; and Essen score: OR 1.469, 95% CI 1.167–1.849, p = 0.001). The CHADS₂ score had the highest AUC value and differed significantly only from the Essen score (AUC of CHADS₂ score; 0.618, 95% CI 0.554–0.681). Conclusion: All stroke risk scores were associated with unsuccessful recanalization after EVT. Our study suggests that these stroke risk scores could be used to predict recanalization in stroke patients undergoing EVT.

Delayed massive cerebral infarction after perioperative period of anterior cervical discectomy and fusion: A case report

BACKGROUND

Cerebral infarction is an extremely rare postoperative complication of anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF), particularly in the delayed setting. We present a case who had a sudden stroke on day 18 after surgery. By sharing our experience with this case, we hope to provide new information about stroke after anterior cervical surgery.

CASE SUMMARY

We present the case of a 61-year-old man with more than 20 years of hypertension and 14 years of coronary heart disease who had suffered a stroke 11 years ago. The patient was admitted for a multiple ACDF due to symptoms of cervical spondylotic myelopathy and had a sudden stroke on day 18 after surgery. Imaging findings showed a large-area infarct of his left cerebral hemisphere and thrombosis in his left common carotid artery. With the consent of his family, the thrombus was removed and a vascular stent was implanted through an interventional operation. Forty days later, the patient was transferred to a rehabilitation hospital for further treatment. He had normal consciousness but slurred speech at the 1-year follow-up evaluation. The motor and sensory functions of his hemiplegic limbs partially recovered.

CONCLUSION

This case illustrated that a postoperative stroke related to anterior cervical surgery may be attributed to prolonged carotid retraction and might have a long silent period. Preventive measures include careful preoperative and postoperative examination for high-risk patients as well as gentle and intermittent retraction of carotid artery sheath during operation.

Risk of recurrent stroke and antiplatelet choice in breakthrough stroke while on aspirin

Uncertainty regarding an optimal antiplatelet regimen still exists in patients with breakthrough acute ischemic stroke (AIS) while on aspirin. This study provides an analysis of a prospective multicenter registry between April 2008 and April 2014. Eligible patients were on aspirin at the time of AIS and treated with antiplatelet regimens (aspirin, clopidogrel, or clopidogrel-aspirin). Potential factors associated with the choice of each antiplatelet regimen were explored and included a predictive risk score for future vascular events, the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS). A total of 2348 patients (age, 69 ± 11 years; male, 57.7%) were analyzed, and 55.3%, 25.3% and 19.4% were treated with clopidogrel-aspirin, aspirin and clopidogrel, respectively. While the likelihood of choosing clopidogrel-aspirin increased as the ESRS increased, the likelihood of choosing aspirin decreased as the ESRS increased (P_trend < 0.001). The ESRS category (0-1/2-3/ ≥ 4) modified the effect of antiplatelet regimens for 1-year vascular events (P_interaction < 0.01). Among patients with ESRS ≥ 4, clopidogrel-aspirin (HR 0.47 [0.30-0.74]) and clopidogrel (HR 0.30 [0.15-0.60]) significantly reduced the risk of outcome events. Our study showed that more than half of the patients with aspirin failure were treated with clopidogrel-aspirin. In particular, a higher ESRS, which indicates an increased risk of recurrent stroke, was associated with the choice of clopidogrel-aspirin rather than aspirin.

A score to predict one-year risk of recurrence after acute ischemic stroke

BACKGROUND

An acute ischemic stroke carries a substantial risk of further recurrences. We aimed at developing and validating a prognostic tool to predict one-year stroke recurrence after acute ischemic stroke.

METHODS

An integer score was derived by Cox regression analysis on a hospital-referred cohort of 3246 acute ischemic stroke patients from Switzerland, and tested for external validity in three similar independent cohorts from Athens (n = 2495), Milan (n = 1279), and Helsinki (n = 714) by means of calibration and discrimination.

RESULTS

In the derivation cohort, the recurrence rate was 7% (n = 228/3246). We developed a nine-point score comprising: previous stroke or transient ischemic attack (1-point), stroke mechanism (small vessel disease and unknown mechanism: 0-points; rare stroke mechanism: 3-points; other mechanisms: 1-point), pre-stroke antiplatelets (1-point), active malignancy (2-points), chronic cerebrovascular lesions on imaging (1-point) and absence of early ischemic changes on first imaging (1-point). In the derivation cohort, the one-year risk of re-stroke was 3.0% (95%CI 1.9-4.1) in 932 (29%) patients with a score 0-1, 7.2% (6.1-8.3) in 2038 (63%) with a score 2-4, and 19.2% (14.6-23.9) in 276 (8%) with a score ≥ 5. The score calibrated well in the Athens (recurrences = 208/2495), but not in the Helsinki (recurrences = 15/714) or Milan (recurrences = 65/1279) cohorts. The AUC was 0.67 in the derivation cohort, and 0.56, 0.70, and 0.63 in the Athens, Helsinki, and Milan cohorts, respectively.

CONCLUSION

We developed a score to predict one-year stroke recurrence risk in patients with acute ischemic stroke. Since the score was not completely validated when applied to external datasets where it displayed poor to fair calibration and discrimination, additional efforts are required to ameliorate our accuracy for predicting stroke recurrence, by better refining this prognostic tool or developing new ones. Clinical and radiological markers of established cerebrovascular disease and stroke etiology were better predictors than the usual demographic vascular risk factors.

Matrix Gla protein polymorphism rs1800801 associates with recurrence of ischemic stroke

The MGP single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs1800801 has previously been associated with recurrent ischemic stroke in a Spanish cohort. Here, we tested for association of this SNP with ischemic stroke recurrence in a North American Caucasian cohort. Acute ischemic stroke patients admitted between 10/2009 and 12/2016 at three hospitals within a large healthcare system in the northeastern United States that were enrolled in a healthcare system-wide exome sequencing program were retrospectively reviewed. Patients with recurrent stroke within 1 year after index event were compared to those without recurrence. Of 9,348 suspected acute ischemic strokes admitted between 10/2009 and 12/2016, 1,727 (18.5%) enrolled in the exome-sequencing program. Among those, 1,068 patients had exome sequencing completed and were eligible for inclusion. Recurrent stroke within the first year of stroke was observed in 79 patients (7.4%). In multivariable analysis, stroke prior to the index stroke (OR 9.694, 95% CI 5.793-16.224, p ≤ 0.001), pro-coagulant status (OR = 3.563, 95% CI 1.504-8.443, p = 0.004) and the AA genotype of SNP rs1800801 (OR = 2.408, 95% CI 1.079-4.389, p = 0.004) were independently associated with recurrent stroke within the first year. The AA genotype of the MGP SNP rs1800801 is associated with recurrence within the first year after ischemic stroke in North American Caucasians. Study of stroke subtypes and additional populations will be required to determine if incorporation of allelic status at this SNP into current risk scores improves prediction of recurrent ischemic stroke.

Impact of Low Ankle-Brachial Index on the Risk of Recurrent Vascular Events

Background and Purpose- Low ankle-brachial index (ABI) identifies a stroke subgroup with high risk of recurrent stroke, cardiovascular events, and death. However, limited data exist on the relationship between low ABI and stroke in low and middle-income countries. Therefore, we evaluated the prevalence of ABI ≤0.90 (which is diagnostic of peripheral artery disease) in nonembolic stroke patients or transient ischemic attack and assessed the correlation of low ABI with stroke risk, factors, and recurrent vascular events and death. Methods- Patients ≥45 years with acute transient ischemic attack or minor ischemic strokes were recruited consecutively from over 17 low-income and middle-income countries (Latin America [1543 patients], Middle East [1041 patients], North Africa [834 patients], and South Africa [217 patients]). The ABI measurement was performed at a single visit. Stroke recurrence and risk of new vascular events were assessed after 24 months of follow-up. Results- Among 3487 enrolled patients, abnormal ABI (<0.9) was present in 22.3 %. Patients with an ABI of ≤0.9 were more likely ( P<0.05) to be male, older, and have a history of peripheral artery disease, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus. During 2-year follow-up, the rate of major cardiovascular event was higher in patients with ABI <0.9 than those with ABI ≥0.9 (Kaplan-Meier estimates, 22.5%; 95% CI, 19.6-25.8 versus 13.7%; 21.4-15.1; P<0.001), and when ABI was categorized into 4 groups (≤0.6; 95% CI, 0.6-0.9; 0.9-1; 1-1.4), the rate of major cardiovascular event was higher in those with ABI ≤0.6 than the other groups (Kaplan-Meier estimates, 32.6%; 95% CI, 21.0-48.3 for ABI≤0.6 versus 21.7%; 95% CI, 18.8-25.0 for ABI 0.6-0.9 versus 14.3%; 95% CI, 12.4-16.6 for ABI 0.9-1 versus 13.3%; 95% CI, 11.6-15.2 for ABI 1-1.4; P<0.001). Conclusions- Among patients with nonembolic ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack, those with low ABI had a higher rate of vascular events and death in this population. Screening for ABI in stroke patients may help identify patients at high risk of future events.

Clinical Risk Score for Predicting Recurrence Following a Cerebral Ischemic Event

Introduction: Recurrent stroke has a higher rate of death and disability. A number of risk scores have been developed to predict short-term and long-term risk of stroke following an initial episode of stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) with limited clinical utilities. In this paper, we review different risk score models and discuss their validity and clinical utilities.

Methods: The PubMed bibliographic database was searched for original research articles on the various risk scores for risk of stroke following an initial episode of stroke or TIA. The validation of the models was evaluated by examining the internal and external validation process as well as statistical methodology, the study power, as well as the accuracy and metrics such as sensitivity and specificity.

Results: Different risk score models have been derived from different study populations. Validation studies for these risk scores have produced conflicting results. Currently, ABCD² score with diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) and Recurrence Risk Estimator at 90 days (RRE-90) are the two acceptable models for short-term risk prediction whereas Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) and Stroke Prognosis Instrument-II (SPI-II) can be useful for prediction of long-term risk.

Conclusion: The clinical risk scores that currently exist for predicting short-term and long-term risk of recurrent cerebral ischemia are limited in their performance and clinical utilities. There is a need for a better predictive tool which can overcome the limitations of current predictive models. Application of machine learning methods in combination with electronic health records may provide platform for development of new-generation predictive tools.

Essen Risk Score in Prediction of Myocardial Infarction After Transient Ischemic Attack or Ischemic Stroke Without Prior Coronary Artery Disease

Background and Purpose- More intensive secondary prevention with newer drugs may be cost-effective in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). Whether some subgroups of patients who had a transient ischemic attack (TIA) or ischemic stroke, but no prior CAD are at similar high risk of myocardial infarction as those with prior CAD remains unclear. We determined whether the Essen score identified a subset of TIA/stroke patients without known prior CAD who, nevertheless, had a high risk of myocardial infarction on current secondary prevention management. Methods- In a population-based cohort (Oxford Vascular Study) of consecutive TIA or ischemic stroke patients recruited from 2002 to 2014, 10-year actuarial risks of myocardial infarction and of recurrent ischemic stroke were determined by face-to-face follow-up in patients with and without prior CAD using Kaplan-Meier analyses. Predictive value of the Essen score was assessed with C statistic. Results- Of 2555 patients with TIA/stroke (13 070 patient-years of follow-up), 10-year risk of myocardial infarction in those without prior CAD (n=2017, 78.9%) ranged from 0.9% (95% CI, 0-1.9) at Essen score ≤1 to 29.8% (95% CI, 7.7-46.6) in those with a score ≥5 (C statistic =0.64 [95% CI, 0.57-0.71]; P<0.001). The score tended to be less predictive (difference: P=0.0460) for the risk of recurrent ischemic stroke (C statistic =0.57 [95% CI, 0.54-0.60]). Compared with patients with prior CAD (n=538, 21.1%), an Essen risk score of ≥4 (n=294, 11.5%) in those without prior CAD identified a subgroup at similar high 10-year risks of myocardial infarction (17.2% [95% CI, 6.9-26.3] versus 16.9% [95% CI, 11.5-22.0]) and of recurrent stroke (40.4% [95% CI, 26.7-51.6] versus 32.4% [95% CI, 25.2-38.8]). Conclusions- The Essen score is a simple clinical score to risk-stratify patients with TIA/stroke without prior CAD and to identify subsets who may be at sufficiently high risk of myocardial infarction and recurrent stroke to justify more intensive treatment or inclusion in trials.

German EstSmoke: estimating adult smoking-related costs and consequences of smoking cessation for Germany

AIMS

We compared predicted life-time health-care costs for current, never and ex-smokers in Germany under the current set of tobacco control polices. We compared these economic consequences of the current situation with an alternative in which Germany were to implement more comprehensive tobacco control policies consistent with the World Health Organization (WHO) Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC) guidelines.

DESIGN

German EstSmoke, an adapted version of the UK EstSmoke simulation model, applies the Markov modelling approach. Transition probabilities for (re-)currence of smoking-related diseases were calculated from large German disease-specific registries and the German Health Update (GEDA 2010). Estimations of both health-care costs and effect sizes of smoking cessation policies were taken from recent German studies and discounted at 3.5%/year.

SETTING

Germany.

PARTICIPANTS

German population of prevalent current, never and ex-smokers in 2009.

MEASUREMENT

Life-time cost and outcomes in current, never and ex-smokers.

FINDINGS

If tobacco control policies are not strengthened, the German smoking population will incur €41.56 billion life-time excess costs compared with never smokers. Implementing tobacco control policies consistent with WHO FCTC guidelines would reduce the difference of life-time costs between current smokers and ex-smokers by at least €1.7 billion.

CONCLUSIONS

Modelling suggests that the life-time healthcare costs of people in Germany who smoke are substantially greater than those of people who have never smoked. However, more comprehensive tobacco control policies could reduce health-care expenditures for current smokers by at least 4%.

Validation of the Essen Stroke Risk Score in different subtypes of ischemic stroke

OBJECTIVE

Predictive scores are important tools for stratifying patients based on their risk of future vascular events and for selecting preventive therapies. The aim of this study is to validate the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) for stratifying stroke recurrence in different subtypes of non-atrial fibrillation ischemic stroke in a large Chinese cohort.

METHODS

Data were derived from the Blood pressure and clinical Outcome in Stroke Survivors registry, which includes a cohort of 2204 stroke patients. All patients were further classified according to the TOAST (Trial of Org 10 172 in Acute Stroke Treatment) criteria. We stratified one-year cumulative rates for stroke and composite vascular events using the ESRS. The predictive power of the ESRS was assessed using the area under the receiver-operator curves (AUC).

RESULTS

Among 1699 patients included in the study, the AUC of ESRS was 0.58 (95% CI: 0.52-0.64) for recurrent stroke, whereas 0.59 (95% CI: 0.53-0.64) for composite vascular events at 1 year. In patients with large-artery atherosclerosis (LAA) subtype of stroke, the AUC of ESRS was both 0.61 (95% CI: 0.54-0.68) for recurrent stroke and composite vascular events. However, no significant AUC was observed in patients with small-artery occlusion subtype of stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with LAA subtype of non-atrial fibrillation stroke, the ESRS has moderate accuracy in stratifying the risk of both recurrent strokes and major vascular events within the first year. However, the ESRS couldn't accurately stratify the risk of recurrent strokes in patients with small-artery atherosclerosis subtype of non-atrial fibrillation stroke.

GRECOS Project (Genotyping Recurrence Risk of Stroke): The Use of Genetics to Predict the Vascular Recurrence After Stroke

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Vascular recurrence occurs in 11% of patients during the first year after ischemic stroke (IS) or transient ischemic attack. Clinical scores do not predict the whole vascular recurrence risk; therefore, we aimed to find genetic variants associated with recurrence that might improve the clinical predictive models in IS.

METHODS

We analyzed 256 polymorphisms from 115 candidate genes in 3 patient cohorts comprising 4482 IS or transient ischemic attack patients. The discovery cohort was prospectively recruited and included 1494 patients, 6.2% of them developed a new IS during the first year of follow-up. Replication analysis was performed in 2988 patients using SNPlex or HumanOmni1-Quad technology. We generated a predictive model using Cox regression (GRECOS score [Genotyping Reurrence Risk of Stroke]) and generated risk groups using a classification tree method.

RESULTS

The analyses revealed that rs1800801 in the MGP gene (hazard ratio, 1.33; P=9×10^-03), a gene related to artery calcification, was associated with new IS during the first year of follow-up. This polymorphism was replicated in a Spanish cohort (n=1.305); however, it was not significantly associated in a North American cohort (n=1.683). The GRECOS score predicted new IS (P=3.2×10^-09) and could classify patients, from low risk of stroke recurrence (1.9%) to high risk (12.6%). Moreover, the addition of genetic risk factors to the GRECOS score improves the prediction compared with previous Stroke Prognosis Instrument-II score (P=0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

The use of genetics could be useful to estimate vascular recurrence risk after IS. Genetic variability in the MGP gene was associated with vascular recurrence in the Spanish population.

CHA2DS2-VASc Score: A Predictor of Thromboembolic Events and Mortality in Patients With an Implantable Monitoring Device Without Atrial Fibrillation

OBJECTIVE

To determine if the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years, diabetes mellitus, stroke or transient ischemic attack, vascular disease, age 65-74 years, sex category) predicts thromboembolism and death in patients without atrial fibrillation in a population with implantable cardiac monitoring devices.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A retrospective review utilizing the Rochester Epidemiology Project research infrastructure was conducted to evaluate the CHA₂DS₂-VASc tool as a predictor of mortality and ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, or systemic embolism in patients without atrial fibrillation. An implantable device was required in the inclusion criteria to discern the absence of atrial fibrillation. The study period was January 1, 2004, through March 7, 2016.

RESULTS

The study population (N=1606) had a mean (SD) age of 69.8 (12.6) years and median follow-up of 4.8 years (range, 0-12 years; quartile 1, 2.6 years and quartile 3, 8.1 years). The number of thromboembolic and mortality events stratified by CHA₂DS₂-VASc score groupings of 0 to 2 (399 patients), 3 to 5 (756 patients), and 6 to 9 (451 patients) were 12 (3.0%), 109 (14.4%), and 123 (27.3%) and 22 (5.5%), 205 (27.1%), and 214 (47.4%), respectively. The CHA₂DS₂-VASc score predicted thromboembolism and death. The hazard ratios (HRs) for thromboembolic events for CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores 3 to 5 and 6 to 9 were 4.84 (95% CI, 2.66-8.80) and 10.53 (95% CI, 5.77-19.21) (reference group, scores 0-2). The HRs for death for the corresponding score categories were 4.45 (95% CI, 2.86-6.91) and 8.18 (95% CI, 5.23-12.78). The CHA₂DS₂-VASc score also predicted development of atrial fibrillation, for which the HRs for scores 3 to 5 and 6 to 9 were 1.51 (95% CI, 1.13-2.00) and 2.17 (95% CI, 1.60-2.95).

CONCLUSION

The CHA₂DS₂-VASc tool predicts thromboembolic events and overall mortality in patients without atrial fibrillation who have implantable devices.

A Validation of the Essen Stroke Risk Score in Outpatients with Ischemic Stroke

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the predictive accuracy of the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) for Chinese stroke outpatients. Our goal was to perform an external validation of the ESRS using a large multicenter cohort of outpatients with ischemic stroke (IS).

METHODS

We estimated the 1-year cumulative event rates for both recurrent stroke and combined vascular events for patients in different ESRS categories using data from a prospective cohort of 3316 outpatients with IS admitted to 18 hospitals in China. In addition, we evaluated the predictive accuracy of the ESRS for both recurrent stroke and combined vascular events using C statistic.

RESULTS

In the nonatrial fibrillation IS outpatients, the cumulative 1-year event rate was 2.47% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.97%-3.06%) for recurrent stroke and 4.32% (95% CI, 3.65%-5.06%) for combined vascular events. The event rates were significantly higher in patients in higher ESRS categories. The ESRS had a predictive accuracy of .63 (.57-.69) for recurrent stroke and .63 (.58-.68) for combined vascular events.

CONCLUSION

Among the Chinese outpatients with IS, the ESRS was able to stratify the risk of both recurrent stroke and combined vascular events equally well. A prediction model suitable for Chinese IS populations is needed.

Prevalences of Peripheral Arterial Disease Diagnosed by Computed Tomography Angiography in Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke

BACKGROUND

Few studies have examined the prevalence of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) with the use of computed tomography angiography (CTA) in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS), although several reports have examined its prevalence using an ankle brachial index (ABI). We aimed to determine the prevalence of PAD indicated by CTA in patients with AIS and to clarify the prevalence of PAD in each clinical ischemic stroke subtype.

METHODS

We included 199 consecutive patients with AIS admitted to our hospital and divided them into PAD and non-PAD groups according to the CTA findings.

RESULTS

Of the 199 patients, 40 (20.1%) had PAD; 27 (67.5%) of the PAD patients were asymptomatic. The prevalence of abnormal ABI (≤.9) was 12.2%. Patients with PAD were older (78.3 ± 10.2 versus 71.5 ± 10.9, P <.001) and had a significantly lower ABI value (.89 ± .24 versus 1.15 ± .09, P <.001) and higher prevalence of diabetes mellitus (50.0% versus 31.4%, P = .028), atrial fibrillation (40.0% versus 16.4%, P = .001), coronary artery disease (32.5% versus 8.2%, P <.001), and intracranial arterial stenosis (47.5% versus 28.9%, P = .025) than patients without PAD. The prevalence of cerebral microbleeds was not different between patients with PAD and those without PAD (25.6% versus 25.4%, P = .985). The prevalence of PAD among ischemic stroke subtypes was highest in patients with cardioembolic infarction (40.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

Almost one fourth of the AIS patients examined had PAD on CTA. Cardioembolic infarction patients showed the highest prevalence of PAD among the clinical ischemic subtypes, suggesting the coexistence of atheromatous diseases and atrial fibrillation.

Prognostic implications of the Ankle Brachial Index in patients with acute ischemic stroke: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The ankle brachial index (ABI) is recognized as a marker of atherosclerotic disease. The detection of ABI may improve the risk stratification.

METHODS

We systematically searched Pubmed and Embase (from the earliest date to October 2015) for studies evaluating the prognostic value of ABI in patients with acute ischemic stroke. Stroke or cardiovascular events, mortality and functional outcomes were analyzed.

RESULTS

Seventeen studies, containing 9404 patients, were included. The mean age of participants in each study ranged from 64 to 79 years. The prevalence of low ABI varied from 7.4% to 40.5%. In this quantitative analysis, we found that low ABI increased the risk of composite outcomes (myocardial infarction or stroke or mortality), disability and mortality.

CONCLUSION

The detection of ABI may help to identify high-risk patients for secondary stroke prevention.

Brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity and ankle-brachial index are complementary tools for transcranial Doppler ultrasonography in early diagnosis of intracranial arterial stenosis/occlusion in patients with acute ischemic stroke

The aim of this study was to explore whether brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) and ankle-brachial index (ABI) are suitable to serve as complementary tools for TCD in early diagnosis of intracranial arterial stenosis/occlusion in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS). A total of 52 patients with AIS onset and 52 age-matched healthy controls were included in this study. All participants received TCD detection, and baPWV and ABI were measured. Computed topography (CT)/magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was applied to confirm diagnosis. TCD data from all participants was collected and reviewed to diagnose stenosis and occlusion of the major intracranial arteries. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and logistic regression analysis were used to assess and compare the diagnostic accuracy of the various diagnostic approaches. We found that a combination of TCD with either baPWV or ABI, or a combination of the three provided a significantly higher area under the curve (AUC) in detecting stenosis or occlusion in various intracranial arteries, excluding the anterior cerebral artery (ACA), when compared to TCD alone, thereby demonstrating that these combined approaches provide improved diagnostic accuracy. In conclusion, our findings suggest that both baPWV and ABI are suitable complementary tools for TCD in early diagnosis of intracranial arterial stenosis/occlusion in AIS patients and that these combinations may assist in facilitating the diagnostic process associated with this disease.

Ankle-Brachial Index and Recurrent Stroke Risk: Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The ankle-brachial index (ABI) is a fast, cheap, noninvasive indicator of atherosclerotic burden that may also be a predictor of stroke recurrence. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we sought to explore ABI's merit as a marker for stroke recurrence and vascular risk by synthesizing the data currently available in stroke literature.

METHODS

We searched Embase, MEDLINE, and Pubmed databases for prospective cohort studies that included consecutive patients with stroke and transient ischemic attack, measured ABI at baseline, and performed a follow-up assessment at least 12 months after initial stroke or transient ischemic attack. The following end points were chosen for our analysis: recurrent stroke and combined vascular end point (recurrent vascular event or vascular death). Crude risk ratios and adjusted Cox proportional hazard ratios were combined separately using the random-effects model. Study-level characteristics (eg, percent of cohort with a history of hypertension, average cohort age, level of adjustment, and mean follow-up duration) were included as covariates in a metaregression analysis.

RESULTS

We identified 11 studies (5374 patients) that were not significantly heterogeneous. Pooling adjusted hazard ratios showed that low ABI was associated with both an increased hazard of recurrent stroke (hazard ratio, 1.70; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-2.64) and an increased risk of vascular events or vascular death (hazard ratio, 2.22; 95% confidence interval, 1.67-2.97).

CONCLUSION

Our results confirm the positive association between ABI and stroke recurrence. Further studies are needed to see whether inclusion of ABI will help improve the accuracy of prediction models and management of stroke patients.

The ARTICO study: identification of patients at high risk of vascular recurrence after a first non-cardioembolic stroke

BACKGROUND

About 20% of patients with a first ischaemic stroke will experience a new vascular event within the first year. The atherosclerotic burden, an indicator of the extension of atherosclerosis in a patient, has been associated with the risk of new cardiovascular events in the general population. However, no predictive models reliably identify groups at a high risk of recurrence. The ARTICO study prospectively analysed the predictive value for the risk of recurrence of specific atherosclerotic markers.

METHODS

The multicentre ARTICO study included 620 consecutive independent patients older than 60 years suffering from a first non-cardioembolic stroke. We analysed classical stroke risk factors; duplex study of supraaortic trunk including intima-media thickness (IMT) measurement; quantification of internal carotid (ICA) stenosis; number, morphology and surface characteristics of carotid plaques; ankle brachial index (ABI); and the presence of microalbuminuria. Patients were followed up at 6 and 12 months after inclusion. The primary end-point was death or major cardiovascular events.

RESULTS

Any vascular event or death at 12 months occurred in 78 (13.8%) patients. In 40 (7.1%) of these the vascular event was a stroke recurrence. Weight, history of diabetes mellitus, history of symptomatic PAD, ABI <0.9 and significant ICA stenosis (>50%) were associated with a higher risk of vascular events on follow-up in the bivariate analysis. In the final Cox regression analysis, body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes mellitus, symptomatic PAD (HR, 2.76; 95% CI, 1.10-6.95; p=0.03), and particularly patients with both ICA stenosis >50% and PAD (HR 4.52; 95% CI, 2.14-9.53; p<0.001) were independently associated with an increased risk of vascular events. Neither isolated ICA stenosis >50% nor isolated abnormal ABI remained associated with an increased risk of recurrence in comparison with the whole population.

CONCLUSIONS

Symptomatic PAD identifies a high risk group of vascular recurrence after a first non-cardioembolic stroke. The associated increased risk was particularly high in patients with both ICA stenosis and either symptomatic or asymptomatic PAD. Neither asymptomatic PAD alone nor isolated ICA stenosis >50% were associated with an increased risk of recurrence in this particularly high-risk group of non-cardioembolic stroke.

Increased pulsatility of the intracranial blood flow spectral waveform on transcranial Doppler does not point to peripheral arterial disease in stroke patients

BACKGROUND

Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is common in patients with acute cerebral ischemia. Indexes of resistance derived from the systolic and diastolic velocities are routinely used in diagnostic transcranial Doppler (TCD) to detect intracranial arterial disease. We sought to explore whether these indexes can predict the presence of PAD in acute cerebral ischemia.

METHODS

We prospectively evaluated consecutive patients with acute cerebral ischemia. On TCD, peak-systolic and end-diastolic velocities in both middle cerebral and basilar arteries were manually measured to calculate pulsatility index (PI) and resistance index (RI). Increased resistance was defined as PI equal to 1.2 or more and RI equal to .75 or more. Ankle-brachial index (ABI) measurements were performed and an ABI equal to .9 or more was considered predictive of definite PAD.

RESULTS

We included 95 patients (45 male, 50 female) aged 66 ± 9 years with a median National Institutes Health Stroke Scale score of 3 (interquartile range, 8) points. The ABI was abnormal and consistent with definite PAD in 24 of 95 (25.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 16.4-34.2) patients. Increased PI did not differ among patients with and without PAD (20.8% vs. 28.2%, P = .60). Only 1 patient with PAD had increased RI as opposed to 4 patients without PAD (4.2% vs. 5.6%, P = 1.0). Increased PI was not found to be an independent predictor of PAD (odds ratio [OR], .68; 95% CI, .22-2.12; P = .51). Increases in both PI and RI independently predicted arterial hypertension (OR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.19-2.21; P = .002 and OR, 3.20; 95% CI, 1.51-6.77; P = .002, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that PAD cannot be inferred from intracranial flow parameters predictive of arterial disease and risk factors such as hypertension among patients with acute cerebral ischemia.

Formal and informal prediction of recurrent stroke and myocardial infarction after stroke: a systematic review and evaluation of clinical prediction models in a new cohort

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to: (1) systematically review the reporting and methods used in the development of clinical prediction models for recurrent stroke or myocardial infarction (MI) after ischemic stroke; (2) to meta-analyze their external performance; and (3) to compare clinical prediction models to informal clinicians' prediction in the Edinburgh Stroke Study (ESS).

METHODS

We searched Medline, EMBASE, reference lists and forward citations of relevant articles from 1980 to 19 April 2013. We included articles which developed multivariable clinical prediction models for the prediction of recurrent stroke and/or MI following ischemic stroke. We extracted information to assess aspects of model development as well as metrics of performance to determine predictive ability. Model quality was assessed against a pre-defined set of criteria. We used random-effects meta-analysis to pool performance metrics.

RESULTS

We identified twelve model development studies and eleven evaluation studies. Investigators often did not report effective sample size, regression coefficients, handling of missing data; typically categorized continuous predictors; and used data dependent methods to build models. A meta-analysis of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC) was possible for the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) and for the Stroke Prognosis Instrument II (SPI-II); the pooled AUROCCs were 0.60 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.62) and 0.62 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.64), respectively. An evaluation among minor stroke patients in the ESS demonstrated that clinicians discriminated poorly between those with and those without recurrent events and that this was similar to clinical prediction models.

CONCLUSIONS

The available models for recurrent stroke discriminate poorly between patients with and without a recurrent stroke or MI after stroke. Models had a similar discrimination to informal clinicians' predictions. Formal prediction may be improved by addressing commonly encountered methodological problems.

Transient ischemic attacks: predictability of future ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack events

The short-term risk of an ischemic stroke after a transient ischemic attack (TIA) is estimated to be approximately 3%–10% at 2 days, 5% at 7 days, and 9%–17% at 90 days, depending on active or passive ascertainment of ischemic stroke. Various risk prediction scores are available to identify high-risk patients. We present here a pragmatic review of the literature discussing the main scoring systems. We also provide the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for each scoring system. Our review shows that scoring systems including brain imaging and vascular imaging are better at risk prediction than scores that do not include this information.

Ankle-brachial index long-term outcome after first-ever ischaemic stroke

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Ankle-brachial blood pressure index (ABI) is a clinical tool to identify the presence of peripheral artery disease. There is a scarcity of data associating ABI with long-term outcome in patients with IS. The association between ABI and long-term outcome in patients with first-ever acute IS was assessed.

METHODS

Ankle-brachial blood pressure index was assessed in all consecutive patients with a first-ever acute IS admitted at Alexandra University hospital (Athens, Greece) between January 2005 and December 2010. ABI was considered normal when > 0.90 and ≤ 1.30. The Kaplan-Meier product limit method was used to estimate the probability of 5-year composite cardiovascular event-free (defined as recurrent stroke, myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death) and overall survival. A multivariate analysis was performed to assess whether ABI is an independent predictor of 5-year mortality and dependence.

RESULTS

Amongst 653 patients, 129 (19.8%) with ABI ≤ 0.9 were identified. Five-year cumulative composite cardiovascular event-free and overall survival rates were better in normal ABI stroke patients (log-rank test: 7.22, P = 0.007 and 23.40, P < 0.001, respectively). There was no difference in 5-year risk of stroke recurrence between low and normal ABI groups (hazard ratio, HR = 1.23, 95% CI 0.68-2.23). In multivariate Cox regression analysis, independent predictors of 5-year mortality included age (HR = 2.55 per 10 years, 95% CI 1.86-3.48, P < 0.001), the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (per point increase HR = 1.12, 95% CI 1.08-1.16, P < 0.001), and low ABI (HR = 2.22, 95% CI 1.22-4.03, P = 0.009). Age (HR = 1.21 per 10 years, 95% CI 1.01-1.45, P = 0.04) and low ABI (HR = 1.72, 95% CI 1.11-2.67, P = 0.01) were independent predictors of the composite cardiovascular end-point.

CONCLUSIONS

Low ABI in patients with acute IS is associated with increased 5-year cardiovascular event risk and mortality. However, ABI does not appear to predict long-term stroke recurrence.

High-sensitivity troponin assay improves prediction of cardiovascular risk in patients with cerebral ischaemia

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Clinical scores are recommended for predicting cardiovascular risk in patients with cerebral ischaemia to inform secondary prevention. Blood biomarkers may improve prediction beyond clinical scores.

METHODS

Within the observational Find-AF trial (ISRCTN46104198), 197 patients >18 years of age with cerebral ischaemia and without atrial fibrillation had blood sampled at baseline. The predictive value of five biomarkers for a combined vascular endpoint (acute coronary syndrome, stroke, cardiovascular death) and all-cause mortality was determined, alone and in addition to the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS), Stroke Prognostic Instrument 2 (SPI-2) and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIH-SS).

RESULTS

There were 23 vascular events (11.7%) and 13 deaths (6.6%) to 1 year follow-up. In multivariate analyses of all markers, only high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTropT) remained independently predictive for vascular events (p=0.045) and all-cause mortality (p=0.004). hsTropT was higher in patients with a vascular event (median 12.7 ng/ml vs 5.1 ng/ml), and patients with hsTropT above the median of 6.15 ng/ml had vascular events more frequently (HR 3.86, p=0.008). For prediction of vascular events as well as all-cause mortality, hsTropT significantly improved multivariate Cox regression models with ESRS, SPI-2 or NIH-SS. The c-statistic increased non-significantly from 0.695 (ESRS) or 0.710 (hsTropT) to 0.747 (ESRS+hsTropT) and from 0.699 (SPI-2) to 0.763 (SPI-2+hsTropT). No patient with a low-risk ESRS and an hsTropT below the median had a vascular event or died.

CONCLUSIONS

hsTropT predicts vascular events and all-cause mortality in patients with acute cerebral ischaemia and improves prediction beyond established clinical scores.

Prediction of vascular risk after stroke - protocol and pilot data of the Prospective Cohort with Incident Stroke (PROSCIS)

RATIONALE

Long-term risk of vascular disease is substantially increased after stroke with several models proposed to predict subsequent stroke and other vascular events after an index event. However, recent validation studies demonstrate limited predictive properties of available prognostic models.

AIMS

We aim to determine prediction models of different complexity for the combined vascular end-point of stroke, myocardial infarction, and vascular death at three-years after first-ever stroke. An independent external validation of the developed models will be performed.

DESIGN

Prospective observational hospital-based cohort study of patients after first-ever stroke.

METHODS

The new predictive models will be developed using the following steps: (1) Development of a basic score based on clinical history data (e.g. hypertension, myocardial infarction, and atrial fibrillation); (2) Development of an advanced score including additional factors such as blood-based biomarkers and results of vascular imaging; (3) Comparing the models fit using different methods (discrimination, calibration); (4) Assessment of clinical utility of an advanced score using methods based on reclassification tables (e.g. net reclassification improvement, integrated discrimination improvement, decision curve analysis); and (5) Investigation of external validity.

OUTCOMES

Primary outcome is a combined vascular end-point composed of stroke, myocardial infarction, and vascular death at three-years after stroke. Furthermore, each component of the composite end-point will be investigated individually and the patterns and time points of risk transitions between vascular end-points and stroke sub-types will be determined.

A Modified Essen Stroke Risk Score for Predicting Recurrent Cardiovascular Events: Development and Validation

Background

The Essen stroke risk score is widely applied to predict the risk of recurrent ischemic stroke. We developed a modified Essen stroke risk score and validated it using a large prospective Effective Vascular Event REduction after STroke (EVEREST) registry including 3588 patients with ischemic stroke in Japan. Patients with cardioembolic stroke were excluded, and follow-up was one-year.

Methods

The modified Essen stroke risk score was calculated from scores for waist circumference, stroke subtype by etiology, and gender in addition to age, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, previous myocardial infarction, other cardiovascular diseases except myocardial infarction and atrial fibrillation, peripheral artery disease, smoking, and previous stroke or transient ischemic attack. A multiple logistic regression model identified the predictors (each assigned one or two points) and provided c-statistics for the modified Essen stroke risk score. We considered two outcomes, recurrent ischemic stroke and cardiovascular events (defined as the combined outcomes of fatal or nonfatal stroke, myocardial infarction, nonfatal unstable angina, and cardiac death).

Results

Recurrent ischemic stroke occurred in 121 patients (3·7%) and cardiovascular events occurred in 133 (4·0%) within a year. The c-statistic (used for discrimination) was 0·632 for recurrent stroke and 0·640 for cardiovascular events. Patients scoring 6 or greater were classified as high risk, otherwise were classified as low risk. Kaplan–Meier analysis revealed that the modified risk score was more predictive than the Essen stroke risk score in both men and women.

Conclusions

The modified Essen stroke risk score increased the ability of the Essen stroke risk score to predict recurrent cardiovascular events. Patients with a high modified Essen stroke risk score should be candidates for intensified secondary prevention strategies.

Atherothrombotic burden and medium-term prognosis in patients with acute ischemic stroke: findings of the SIRIO study

BACKGROUND

Short- and medium-term mortality after acute stroke is related to the severity of the index event and the patient's age. However, recent studies have reassessed the prognostic value of the systemic atherothrombotic burden in these patients, not only in the long term. This post hoc analysis of the findings of the SIRIO trial (Stroke in Italy and Related Impact on Outcome) examined the prognostic impact of systemic atherothrombosis.

METHODS

SIRIO was a multicenter observational study enrolling patients during the acute phase of stroke of both ischemic and hemorrhagic origin. The present analysis, however, only covered patients with ischemic stroke. At baseline, the main personal and clinical details were recorded and patients were classified as having either polyvascular disease or single arterial disease on the basis of whether they had symptomatic atherothrombotic disease in other sites besides the cerebrovascular location. For all patients we calculated the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS), dividing them into groups with scores of less than 3 or 3 and more. We recorded total mortality and nonfatal vascular events 12 months after enrolment. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to select predictors of medium-term mortality and nonfatal cardiovascular events. There were 2,561 patients with ischemic stroke, 823 of them classified as having polyvascular disease; 940 (out of 2,485) had an ESRS of less than 3 and 1,545 had a score of 3 or more.

RESULTS

The combined endpoint 'death (all causes) and nonfatal cardiovascular events within 12 months of hospital discharge' was significantly dependent on the following factors: ESRS, Rankin scale and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale scores, and polyvascular disease. Polyvascular disease status significantly affected mortality and nonfatal cardio- and cerebrovascular events after discharge (OR = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.10-1.88). Age was also confirmed as a significant predictor of the combined endpoint.

CONCLUSIONS

Besides age and the clinical severity of the index event, symptomatic involvement of several vascular districts was also an important predictor of mortality and nonfatal cardiovascular events in the medium term in patients with ischemic stroke.

Vascular risk prediction in ischemic stroke patients undergoing in-patient rehabilitation - insights from the investigation of patients with ischemic stroke in neurologic rehabilitation (INSIGHT) registry

BACKGROUND

In-patient rehabilitation following ischemic stroke offers a unique opportunity for risk factor and lifestyle modification. Quantification of risk in this setting may help to tailor therapy, increase physician awareness and patient compliance and thus to reduce recurrent vascular events.

AIMS

To validate the predictive value of established secondary stroke risk scores.

METHODS

One thousand one hundred sixty-three patients undergoing in-patient rehabilitation following recent ischemic stroke in 15 German neurologic rehabilitation centers were included 0·9 ± 0·5 months after the index event. Outcome information was available for 846 participants (72·7%) after a mean follow-up of 13 ± 2·3 months.

RESULTS

Patients' mean age was 66·3 ± 12·3 years and 42·5% were women. The National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (mean 4·0 ± 3·9), modified Rankin scale (median 2, range 0-5), and Barthel Index (median 90, range 0-100) indicated good functional status. A recurrent fatal or nonfatal stroke during follow-up occurred in 6·7% and combined vascular events (stroke, myocardial infarction, vascular death) in 10·9%. The predictive accuracy for recurrent stroke was slightly higher on the Essen Stroke Risk Score than on the Stroke Prognostis Instrument II (area under the curve 0·62 vs. 0·56), while both scores had a similar predictive accuracy for combined vascular events.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk stratification on the Essen Stroke Risk Score and Stroke Prognostis Instrument II provides a moderate accuracy for the prediction of recurrent stroke and vascular events in patients undergoing neurologic in-patient rehabilitation. Although individual risk prediction may remain imprecise, the use of these scores should be encouraged.

Was gibt es Neues beim Schlaganfall?

Anhand von selektierten Publikationen aus den vergangenen 12 Monaten werden aktuelle Entwicklungen und Neuheiten in der Prävention und Behandlung des Schlaganfalls dargestellt. Der orale direkte Thrombininhibitor Dabigatran zeigt weniger intrakranielle Blutungskomplikationen bei überlegener Wirksamkeit gegenüber Warfarin und ist seit August 2011 für die Behandlung von Patienten mit Vorhofflimmern zugelassen. Andere Antikoagulantien der neuen Generation wie Rivaroxaban und Apixaban sind gegenüber Warfarin ebenfalls überlegen, jedoch in Europa bislang noch nicht zur Behandlung von Patienten mit Vorhofflimmern zugelassen. Bei Patienten mit Vorhofflimmern wird das Risiko kardio- oder zerebrovaskulärer Ereignisse durch Angiotensin-Rezeptorblocker nicht reduziert. Eine aggressive Therapie des Diabetes mellitus senkt das Risiko für mikrovaskuläre, nicht jedoch für zerebro- und kardiovaskuläre Ereignisse oder die Sterblichkeit. Das Absetzen von Thrombozytenfunktionshemmern erhöht das Schlaganfall-Rezidivrisiko um 40%. Die Ausweitung des Zeitfensters für eine systemische Thrombolyse von 3 auf 4,5 Stunden hat weder die Blutungsrate oder Mortalität noch die mediane Latenzzeit von Aufnahme bis Lysebeginn erhöht. Ein Alter über 80 Jahre allein sollte kein Grund sein Patienten von der Lysetherapie auszuschließen. Angiotensin-Rezeptorblocker führen weder zur Verbesserung des Behandlungsergebnisses noch zur Reduktion kognitiver Störungen nach Schlaganfall. Zur Behandlung symptomatischer Carotisstenosen ist die Thrombendarteriektomie dem Stenting vorzuziehen. Das Stenting intrakranieller Stenosen und asymptomatischer extrakranieller Stenosen wird eher nicht empfohlen. Die zeitnahe Gabe von niedermolekularen Heparinen zur Thromboseprophylaxe und die Wiederaufnahme der oralen Antikoagulation 10–30 Wochen nach intrazerebraler Blutung sind wahrscheinlich sicher. Durch moderne CT-Diagnostik können Subarachnoidalblutungen und intrakranielle Aneurysmen ausreichend zuverlässig diagnostiziert werden. Endothelin-Rezeptor-Antagonisten sind zur Behandlung von Vasospasmen nach Subarachnoidalblutung unwirksam.