The CURB65 pneumonia severity score outperforms generic sepsis and early warning scores in predicting mortality in community-acquired pneumonia

Variation in nurses' compliance with an Early Warning Score protocol: A retrospective cohort study

Introduction

Early Warning Score (EWS) protocols are based on intermittent vital sign measurements, and aim to detect clinical deterioration in a timely manner. Despite its predictive value, its effectiveness remains suboptimal. An important limitation appears to be poor compliance with the EWS protocol and its variation between general wards. The current research does not yet provide an understanding of EWS compliance and variation in different nursing wards.

Aim

To explore the variation in nurses' compliance with the EWS protocol among patients with and without complications and between different nursing wards.

Methods

In a retrospective single-center cohort study, all patient files from three nursing wards of a tertiary teaching hospital in the Netherlands were reviewed over a 1-month period. Compliance was divided into three categories:1) calculation accuracy, 2) monitoring frequency end 3) clinical response.

Results

The cohort of 210 patients contained 5864 measurements, of which 4125 (70.6 %) included EWS. Significant differences in the measured vital signs within incomplete measurements were found among nursing wards. Compliance to monitoring frequency was higher within EWSs of 0-1 (78.4 %) than within EWSs of ≥2 (26.1 %). The proportion of correct follow-up was significantly higher in patients with complications, as was the correct clinical response to an EWS of ≥3 (84.8 % vs. 55.0; p = .011).

Conclusion

Our results suggest suboptimal compliance with the EWS protocol, with large variations between patients with and without complications and between different general care wards. Nurses tended to be more compliant with the EWS protocol for patients with complications.

Wearable wireless continuous vital signs monitoring on the general ward

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Wearable wireless sensors for continuous vital signs monitoring (CVSM) offer the potential for early identification of patient deterioration, especially in low-intensity care settings like general wards. This study aims to review advances in wearable CVSM - with a focus on the general ward - highlighting the technological characteristics of CVSM systems, user perspectives and impact on patient outcomes by exploring recent evidence.

RECENT FINDINGS

The accuracy of wearable sensors measuring vital signs exhibits variability, especially notable in ambulatory patients within hospital settings, and standard validation protocols are lacking. Usability of CMVS systems is critical for nurses and patients, highlighting the need for easy-to-use wearable sensors, and expansion of the number of measured vital signs. Current software systems lack integration with hospital IT infrastructures and workflow automation. Imperative enhancements involve nurse-friendly, less intrusive alarm strategies, and advanced decision support systems. Despite observed reductions in ICU admissions and Rapid Response Team calls, the impact on patient outcomes lacks robust statistical significance.

SUMMARY

Widespread implementation of CVSM systems on the general ward and potentially outside the hospital seems inevitable. Despite the theoretical benefits of CVSM systems in improving clinical outcomes, and supporting nursing care by optimizing clinical workflow efficiency, the demonstrated effects in clinical practice are mixed. This review highlights the existing challenges related to data quality, usability, implementation, integration, interpretation, and user perspectives, as well as the need for robust evidence to support their impact on patient outcomes, workflow and cost-effectiveness.

AB2CO risk score for in-hospital mortality of COVID-19 patients admitted to intensive care units

PURPOSE

To develop a mortality risk score for COVID-19 patients admitted to intensive care units (ICU), and to compare it with other existing scores.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective observational study included consecutive adult patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to ICUs of 18 hospitals from nine Brazilian cities, from September 2021 to July 2022. Potential predictors were selected based on the literature review. Generalized Additive Models were used to examine outcomes and predictors. LASSO regression was used to derive the mortality score.

RESULTS

From 558 patients, median age was 69 years (IQR 58-78), 56.3 % were men, 19.7 % required mechanical ventilation (MV), and 44.8 % died. The final model comprised six variables: age, pO2/FiO2, respiratory function (respiratory rate or if in MV), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and obesity. The AB2CO had an AUROC of 0.781 (95 % CI 0.744 to 0.819), good overall performance (Brier score = 0.191) and an excellent calibration (slope = 1.063, intercept = 0.015, p-value = 0.834). The model was compared with other scores and displayed better discrimination ability than the majority of them.

CONCLUSIONS

The AB2CO score is a fast and easy tool to be used upon ICU admission.

Enhancing pneumonia prognosis in the emergency department: a novel machine learning approach using complete blood count and differential leukocyte count combined with CURB-65 score

BACKGROUND

Pneumonia poses a major global health challenge, necessitating accurate severity assessment tools. However, conventional scoring systems such as CURB-65 have inherent limitations. Machine learning (ML) offers a promising approach for prediction. We previously introduced the Blood Culture Prediction Index (BCPI) model, leveraging solely on complete blood count (CBC) and differential leukocyte count (DC), demonstrating its effectiveness in predicting bacteremia. Nevertheless, its potential in assessing pneumonia remains unexplored. Therefore, this study aims to compare the effectiveness of BCPI and CURB-65 in assessing pneumonia severity in an emergency department (ED) setting and develop an integrated ML model to enhance efficiency.

METHODS

This retrospective study was conducted at a 3400-bed tertiary medical center in Taiwan. Data from 9,352 patients with pneumonia in the ED between 2019 and 2021 were analyzed in this study. We utilized the BCPI model, which was trained on CBC/DC data, and computed CURB-65 scores for each patient to compare their prognosis prediction capabilities. Subsequently, we developed a novel Cox regression model to predict in-hospital mortality, integrating the BCPI model and CURB-65 scores, aiming to assess whether this integration enhances predictive performance.

RESULTS

The predictive performance of the BCPI model and CURB-65 score for the 30-day mortality rate in ED patients and the in-hospital mortality rate among admitted patients was comparable across all risk categories. However, the Cox regression model demonstrated an improved area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.713 than that of CURB-65 (0.668) for in-hospital mortality (p<0.001). In the lowest risk group (CURB-65=0), the Cox regression model outperformed CURB-65, with a significantly lower mortality rate (2.9% vs. 7.7%, p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The BCPI model, constructed using CBC/DC data and ML techniques, performs comparably to the widely utilized CURB-65 in predicting outcomes for patients with pneumonia in the ED. Furthermore, by integrating the CURB-65 score and BCPI model into a Cox regression model, we demonstrated improved prediction capabilities, particularly for low-risk patients. Given its simple parameters and easy training process, the Cox regression model may be a more effective prediction tool for classifying patients with pneumonia in the emergency room.

P. G, Potdar V, Manna B, Amarchand R, Choudekar A, Gopal G, Sarda K, Lafond KE, Azziz-Baumgartner E, Saha S, Dar L, Krishnan A. Adverse outcomes in patients hospitalized with pneumonia at age 60 or more: A prospective multi-centric hospital-based study in India

BACKGROUND

Limited data exists regarding risk factors for adverse outcomes in older adults hospitalized with Community-Acquired Pneumonia (CAP) in low- and middle-income countries such as India. This multisite study aimed to assess outcomes and associated risk factors among adults aged ≥60 years hospitalized with pneumonia.

METHODS

Between December 2018 and March 2020, we enrolled ≥60-year-old adults admitted within 48 hours for CAP treatment across 16 public and private facilities in four sites. Clinical data and nasal/oropharyngeal specimens were collected by trained nurses and tested for influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and other respiratory viruses (ORV) using the qPCR. Participants were evaluated regularly until discharge, as well as on the 7th and 30th days post-discharge. Outcomes included ICU admission and in-hospital or 30-day post-discharge mortality. A hierarchical framework for multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models identified risk factors (e.g., demographics, clinical features, etiologic agents) associated with critical care or death.

FINDINGS

Of 1,090 CAP patients, the median age was 69 years; 38.4% were female. Influenza viruses were detected in 12.3%, RSV in 2.2%, and ORV in 6.3% of participants. Critical care was required for 39.4%, with 9.9% in-hospital mortality and 5% 30-day post-discharge mortality. Only 41% of influenza CAP patients received antiviral treatment. Admission factors independently associated with ICU admission included respiratory rate >30/min, blood urea nitrogen>19mg/dl, altered sensorium, anemia, oxygen saturation <90%, prior cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and private hospital admission. Diabetes, anemia, low oxygen saturation at admission, ICU admission, and mechanical ventilation were associated with 30-day mortality.

CONCLUSION

High ICU admission and 30-day mortality rates were observed among older adults with pneumonia, with a significant proportion linked to influenza and RSV infections. Comprehensive guidelines for CAP prevention and management in older adults are needed, especially with the co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2.

Early machine learning prediction of hospitalized patients at low risk of respiratory deterioration or mortality in community-acquired pneumonia: Derivation and validation of a multivariable model

Current prognostic tools for pneumonia predominantly focus on mortality, often neglecting other crucial outcomes such as the need for advanced respiratory support. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a tool that predicts the early risk of non-occurrence of respiratory deterioration or mortality. We conducted a single-center, retrospective cohort study involving hospitalized adult patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and acute hypoxic respiratory failure from January 2009 to December 2019 (n = 4379). We employed the gradient boosting machine (GBM) learning to create a model that estimates the likelihood of patients requiring advanced respiratory support (high flow nasal cannula [HFNC], non-invasive mechanical ventilation [NIMV], and invasive mechanical ventilation [IMV]) or facing mortality during hospitalization. This model utilized readily available data including demographic, physiologic, and laboratory data, sourced from electronic health records and obtained within the first six hours of admission. Out of the cohort, 890 patients (25.2%) either required advanced respiratory support or died during their hospital stay. Our predictive model displayed superior discrimination and higher sensitivity (cross-validation C-statistic = 0.71; specificity = 0.56; sensitivity = 0.72) compared to the pneumonia severity index (PSI) (C-statistic = 0.65; specificity = 0.91; sensitivity = 0.24; P value < 0.001), while maintaining a negative predictive value (NPV) of approximately 0.85. These data demonstrate that our machine learning model predicted the non-occurrence of respiratory deterioration or mortality among hospitalized CAP patients more accurately than the PSI. The enhanced sensitivity of this model holds potential for reliably excluding low-risk patients from pneumonia clinical trials.

Clinical features that predict the mortality risk in older patients with Omicron pneumonia: the MLWAP score

In December 2022, the Chinese suffered widespread Omicron of SARS-CoV-2 with variable symptom severity and outcome. We wanted to develop a scoring model to predict the mortality risk of older Omicron pneumonia patients by analyzing admission data. We enrolled 227 Omicron pneumonia patients aged 60 years and older, admitted to our hospital from December 15, 2022, to January 16, 2023, and divided them randomly into a 70% training set and a 30% test set. The former were used to identify predictors and develop a model, the latter to verify the model, using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, a calibration curve to test its performance and comparing it to the existing scores. The MLWAP score was calculated based on a multivariate logistic regression model to predict mortality with a weighted score that included immunosuppression, lactate ≥ 2.4, white blood cell count ≥ 6.70 × 109/L, age ≥ 77 years, and PaO2/FiO2 ≤ 211. The AUC for the model in the training and test sets was 0.852 (95% CI, 0.792-0.912) and 0.875 (95% CI, 0.789-0.961), respectively. The calibration curves showed a good fit. We grouped the risk scores into low (score 0-7 points), medium (8-10 points), and high (11-13 points). This model had a sensitivity of 0.849, specificity of 0.714, and better predictive ability than the CURB-65 and PSI scores (AUROC = 0.859 vs. 0.788 vs. 0.801, respectively). The MLWAP-mortality score may help clinicians to stratify hospitalized older Omicron pneumonia patients into relevant risk categories, rationally allocate medical resources, and reduce the mortality.

Effectiveness of primary series, first, and second booster vaccination of monovalent mRNA COVID-19 vaccines against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections and severe diseases during the SARS-CoV-2 omicron BA.5 epidemic in Japan: vaccine effectiveness real-time surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 (VERSUS)

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to evaluate VE of primary, first, and second booster ancestral-strain monovalent mRNA COVID-19 vaccination against symptomatic infections and severe diseases in Japan.

METHODS

We conducted a test-negative case-control study. We included medically attended episodes and hospitalizations involving individuals aged ≥ 16 with signs and symptoms from July to November 2022, when Omicron BA.5 was dominant nationwide. To evaluate VE, we calculated adjusted ORs of vaccination among test-positive versus test-negative individuals using a mixed-effects logistic regression.

RESULTS

For VE against symptomatic infections among individuals aged 16 to 59, VE of primary vaccination at > 180 days was 26.1% (95% CI: 10.6-38.8%); VE of the first booster was 58.5% (48.4-66.7%) at ≤ 90 days, decreasing to 41.1% (29.5-50.8%) at 91 to 180 days. For individuals aged ≥ 60, VE of the first booster was 42.8% (1.7-66.7%) at ≤ 90 days, dropping to 15.4% (-25.9-43.2%) at 91 to 180 days, and then increasing to 44.0% (16.4-62.5%) after the second booster. For VE against severe diseases, VE of the first and second booster was 77.3% (61.2-86.7%) at ≤ 90 days and 55.9% (23.4-74.6%) afterward.

CONCLUSION

mRNA booster vaccination provided moderate protection against symptomatic infections and high-level protection against severe diseases during the BA.5 epidemic in Japan.

Risk Factors for 30-Day Mortality in Patients with Bacteremic Pneumonia Caused by Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae: A Retrospective Study

Objective

Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae are prevalent Gram-negative microorganisms responsible for pneumonia, as well as the primary Enterobacteriaceae pathogens causing bacteremic pneumonia. The objective of this research is to analyze the risk factors associated with bacteremic pneumonia caused by these pathogens and develop a predictive model.

Patients and Methods

This retrospective investigation encompassed a cohort of 252 patients diagnosed with Escherichia coli or Klebsiella pneumoniae-induced bacteremic pneumonia between 2018 and 2022. The primary endpoint was 30-day mortality, which was analyzed using multifactorial logistic regression, nomogram construction, and Bootstrap validation.

Results

Among the 252 patients diagnosed with Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae, 65 succumbed to the disease while 187 survived. The overall 30-day mortality was found to be 25.8%. A multifactorial logistic regression analysis revealed that diastolic blood pressure, cerebrovascular diseases/transient ischemic attacks (TIA), immunosuppression, blood urea nitrogen, Pitt score, and CURB-65 score were statistically significant factors. The Nomogram model demonstrated an AUC of 0.954, which closely aligns with the Bootstrap-derived mean AUC of 0.953 (95% CI: 0.952-0.954).

Conclusion

In patients with bacteremic pneumonia caused by Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae, Low diastolic blood pressure (≤61 mmHg), pre-existing cerebrovascular disease/ transient ischemic attacks (TIA), immunosuppression status, elevated blood urea nitrogen levels (≥8.39 mmol/L), high Pitt score (≥3), and a high CURB-65 score (≥2) are all independent risk factors for Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae bacteremic pneumonia, among which the first three warrant particular attention.

Evaluating the performance of the National Early Warning Score in different diagnostic groups

BACKGROUND

The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) is used in hospitals across the UK to detect deterioration of patients within care pathways. It is used for most patients, but there are relatively few studies validating its performance in groups of patients with specific conditions.

METHODS

The performance of NEWS was evaluated against 36 other Early Warning Scores, in 123 patient groups, through use of the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve technique, to compare the abilities of each Early Warning Score to discriminate an outcome within 24hrs of vital sign recording. Outcomes evaluated were death, ICU admission, or a combined outcome of either death or ICU admission within 24 hours of an observation set.

RESULTS

The National Early Warning Score 2 performs either best or joint best within 120 of the 123 patient groups evaluated and is only outperformed in prediction of unanticipated ICU admission. When outperformed by other Early Warning Scores in the remaining 3 patient groups, the performance difference was marginal.

CONCLUSIONS

Consistently high performance indicates that NEWS is a suitable early warning score to use for all diagnostic groups considered by this analysis, and patients are not disadvantaged through use of NEWS in comparison to any of the other evaluated Early Warning Scores.

Assessment of the ABC2-SPH risk score to predict invasive mechanical ventilation in COVID-19 patients and comparison to other scores

Background

Predicting the need for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) is important for the allocation of human and technological resources, improvement of surveillance, and use of effective therapeutic measures. This study aimed (i) to assess whether the ABC2-SPH score is able to predict the receipt of IMV in COVID-19 patients; (ii) to compare its performance with other existing scores; (iii) to perform score recalibration, and to assess whether recalibration improved prediction.

Methods

Retrospective observational cohort, which included adult laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients admitted in 32 hospitals, from 14 Brazilian cities. This study was conducted in two stages: (i) for the assessment of the ABC2-SPH score and comparison with other available scores, patients hospitalized from July 31, 2020, to March 31, 2022, were included; (ii) for ABC2-SPH score recalibration and also comparison with other existing scores, patients admitted from January 1, 2021, to March 31, 2022, were enrolled. For both steps, the area under the receiving operator characteristic score (AUROC) was calculated for all scores, while a calibration plot was assessed only for the ABC2-SPH score. Comparisons between ABC2-SPH and the other scores followed the Delong Test recommendations. Logistic recalibration methods were used to improve results and adapt to the studied sample.

Results

Overall, 9,350 patients were included in the study, the median age was 58.5 (IQR 47.0-69.0) years old, and 45.4% were women. Of those, 33.5% were admitted to the ICU, 25.2% received IMV, and 17.8% died. The ABC2-SPH score showed a significantly greater discriminatory capacity, than the CURB-65, STSS, and SUM scores, with potentialized results when we consider only patients younger than 80 years old (AUROC 0.714 [95% CI 0.698-0.731]). Thus, after the ABC2-SPH score recalibration, we observed improvements in calibration (slope = 1.135, intercept = 0.242) and overall performance (Brier score = 0.127).

Conclusion

The ABC2-SPHr risk score demonstrated a good performance to predict the need for mechanical ventilation in COVID-19 hospitalized patients under 80 years of age.

COVID-19: An evaluation of predictive scoring systems in South Africa

Background

| The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by SARS-CoV-2, has resulted in more than 700 million cases worldwide. Sepsis and pneumonia severity scores assist in risk assessment of critical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. This allows healthcare workers to triage patients, by using clinical parameters and limited special investigations, thus offering the most appropriate level of care.

Methods

| A retrospective cohort study of 605 adult patients hospitalised with moderate to severe COVID-19, at a tertiary state hospital in South Africa. Evaluating the utility of the CURB65, NEWS2 and ISARIC-4C Mortality Score, in predicting critical outcomes, using clinical characteristics on admission. Outcomes included in-hospital mortality, invasive mechanical ventilation, and intensive care unit admission (ICU). Performance of severity scores and risk factors was assessed by area under the receiver operator characteristics (AUROC) analysis and logistic regression.

Findings |

A total of 605 records were used, 129 (21 %) non-survivors, 101 (17 %) ICU admissions and 77 (13 %) requiring invasive ventilation. Greater odds of mortality was associated with moderate and severe risk groups of the CURB65, ISARIC-4C and NEWS2 score. Mortality AUROC curve analysis for the CURB65 score was 0·76 (95 % CI: 0·71-0·8), 0·77 (95 % CI: 0·73-0·81) for the ISARIC-4C and 0·77 (95 % CI: 0·73-0·82) for the NEWS2 score. The CURB65 score had a sensitivity of 86 % with 12·8 % mortality, ISARIC-4C score a sensitivity of 87·6 % with 8 % mortality and NEWS2 score a sensitivity of 92·2 % with 8·6 % mortality.

Interpretation |

In 605 hospitalised patients with moderate to severe COVID-19, predominantly infected by the ancestral strain, good performance of the NEWS2 and ISARIC-4C score in predicting in-hospital mortality was noted. The CURB65 score had a high mortality rate in its low-risk group suggesting unexplained risk factors, not accounted for in the score, thus limiting its utility in the South African setting.

Ceftriaxone versus ampicillin for the treatment of community-acquired pneumonia. A propensity matched cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Ceftriaxone is recommended as first-line antibiotic treatment (with the addition of macrolide) for hospitalised adults with community acquired pneumonia (CAP). Narrower-spectrum β-lactam as ampicillin, may be associated with comparable clinical outcomes, with less emergence of resistant pathogens or Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI). We aimed to examine whether ampicillin and ceftriaxone (with the addition of macrolides for both arms) are comparable for the treatment of hospitalized adults due to CAP.

METHODS

This was a single center, observational cohort study. We included adult patients who were hospitalized in internal medicine wards due to CAP and were treated with either ceftriaxone or ampicillin with the addition of macrolide. A propensity-score model was used. The primary outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality. A multivariable logistic regression analysis and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed. We performed subgroup analyses for the main outcome based on CURB-65 score and age.

RESULTS

A total of 1586 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria. There was no difference in 30-day mortality rate in the total cohort (28/233 vs. 208/1353 in ampicillin and ceftriaxone arm, respectively; p = 0.184). In the propensity matched cohort (197 in ampicillin and 394 in ceftriaxone arm), there was no significant difference in 30-day all-cause mortality between treatment groups in multivariable analysis of the main model (OR 0.67, 95% CI, 0.37-1.2; p = 0.189) and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis (p = 0.108). Thirty-day mortality rate was (19/197 vs. 57/394, in ampicillin and ceftriaxone arms, respectively; p = 0.108) Patients who were treated with ampicillin experienced significantly lower rates of CDI (0/197, 0% vs. 8/394, 2%; p = 0.044).

DISCUSSION

Ampicillin was associated with comparable clinical outcomes in comparison to ceftriaxone for patients who were hospitalized due to CAP. Ampicillin was associated with significantly lower rate of CDI. Results need to be confirmed by more robust study designs.

Comparison Between Physiological Scores SIPF, CURB-65, and APACHE II as Predictors of Prognosis and Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19 Pneumonia: A Multicenter Study, Saudi Arabia

Background

A coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) is associated with catastrophic effects on the world with high morbidity and mortality. We aimed to evaluate the accuracy of physiological shock index (SIPF) (shock index and hypoxemia), CURB -65, acute physiology, and chronic health assessment II (APACHE II) as predictors of prognosis and in-hospital mortality in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.

Methods

In Saudi Arabia, a multicenter retrospective study was conducted on hospitalized adult patients confirmed to have COVID-19 pneumonia. Information needed to calculate SIPF, CURB-65, and APACHE II scores were obtained from medical records within 24 hours of admission.

Results

The study included 1131 COVID-19 patients who met the inclusion criteria. They were divided into two groups: (A) the ICU group (n=340; 30.1%) and (B) the ward group (n=791; 69.9%). The most common concomitant diseases of patients at initial ICU admission were hypertension (71.5%) and diabetes (62.4%), and most of them were men (63.8%). The overall mortality was 18.7%, and the mortality rate was higher in the ICU group than in the ward group (39.4% vs 9.6%; p < 0.001). The SIPF score showed a significantly higher ability to predict both ICU admission and mortality in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia compared with APACHE II and CURB -65; (AUC 0.89 vs 0.87; p < 0.001) and (AUC 0.89 vs 0.84; p < 0.001) for ICU admission and (AUC 0.90 vs 0.65; p < 0.001) and (AUC 0.90 vs 0.80; p < 0.001) for mortality, respectively.

Conclusion

The ability of the SIPF score to predict ICU admission and mortality in COVID-19 pneumonia is higher than that of APACHE II and CURB-65. The overall mortality was 18.7%, and the mortality rate was higher in the ICU group than in the ward group (39.4% vs 9.6%; p < 0.001).

Low triiodothyronine syndrome is associated with stroke-associated pneumonia

OBJECTIVE

Stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP) is the most common early consequence in patients suffering from an acute ischaemic stroke (AIS). The purpose of this study was to explore the possible relationship between low triiodothyronine (T3) syndrome and SAP in stroke patients.

METHODS

This study recruited 2460 consecutive AIS patients. SAP was defined according to the modified Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for hospital-acquired pneumonia. The thyroid hormones levels were measured within 24 h after admission. Low T3 syndrome was characterized as T3 below the lower limit of the reference interval accompanied by normal TSH levels.

RESULTS

Among the total patients, 336 (13.7%) patients were diagnosed with SAP. SAP in individuals with low T3 syndrome was substantially greater (p < .001) as compared to those without low T3 syndrome. After adjusting for possible confounders, low T3 syndrome (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.59; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.20-2.09; p = .001) remained significant in our logistic model. Patients with low T3 syndrome had a higher risk of severe SAP (aOR = 2.17, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.38-3.44; p = .001).

CONCLUSION

Low T3 syndrome, independent of recognized risk factors, is a possible risk factor for in-hospital SAP, which can help clinicians in the early detection and treatment of high-risk patients.

Long-term impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines for children on adult pneumococcal pneumonia in Japan: Two multicenter observational studies from 2011 to 2020

BACKGROUND

Pediatric pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) introduction has directly and indirectly reduced pneumococcal pneumonia and invasive disease caused by PCV-covered serotypes among children and adults globally. In Japan, both PCV7 and PCV13 were introduced into the national immunization program (NIP) for children in 2013. However, the long-term impact of PCV use in children on adult pneumococcal pneumonia in Japan remains unclear.

METHODS

We assessed serotypes isolated from adult pneumococcal pneumonia patients (in- and outpatients) in two multicenter observational studies in Japan: 2011-2014 and 2016-2020. The latter study period was divided into two periods to evaluate changes after PCV introduction in children. The Quellung reaction was used to determine serotypes. We evaluated trends of individual and vaccine-covered serotypes over three periods and assessed the difference in changes by patient group before and after the introduction of pediatric PCVs.

RESULTS

A total of 650 patients were enrolled: 224, 322, and 104 in 2011-2014, 2016-2017, and 2018-2020, respectively. The median age was 73 years; 59.7% (388/650) were male; 86.9% (565/650) had comorbidities; and 10.2% (66/650) were nursing-home residents. The proportion of PCV13 serotypes decreased from 52.7% in 2011-2014 to 30.4% in 2016-2017 (p <0.001) after PCV13 introduction for children. However, PCV13, PCV15, and PCV20 serotypes still accounted for 38.5, 43.3, and 59.6% of total pneumococcal pneumonia in 2018-2020, respectively. Decline of PCV13 serotypes was more marked in patients aged ≥65 (-23.5%; p <0.001) than those aged <65 (-12.3%; p = 0.104) from 2011-2014 to 2016-2020. The proportion of PPSV23 non-PCV13 serotypes didn't change over time.

CONCLUSIONS

The proportion of adult pneumococcal pneumonia caused by PCV13 serotypes in Japan declined after pediatric PCVs introduction into NIP, possibly due to indirect effects of pediatric PCVs. However, use of new PCVs in Japanese adults may potentially prevent additional pneumococcal pneumonia cases. Now, pneumococcal vaccination strategy for older adults requires discussion.

Severity and prognostic factors of SARS-CoV-2-induced pneumonia: The value of clinical and laboratory biomarkers and the A-DROP score

Introduction

Numerous clinical and laboratory scores that include C-reactive protein (CRP), D-dimer, ferritin, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), interleukin 6 (IL-6), procalcitonin (PCT), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), creatinine levels and oxygenation (PaO₂ and SaO₂) have been used for the prognosis of COVID-19. In addition, composite scores have been developed for the assessment of general state and risk in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) that may be applied for COVID-19 as well. In this study, we assessed severity and potential prognostic risk factors for unfavorable outcome among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. We also applied the A-DROP general scoring system used in CAP to COVID-19.

Patients and methods

Altogether 233 patients admitted to our center with COVID-19 were included in the study. Clinical status, several laboratory biomarkers described above, indicators of oxygenation were determined at hospital admission. We also applied the A-DROP composite scoring system that includes Age (≥ 70 years in males and ≥ 75 years in females), Dehydration (BUN ≥ 7.5 mmol/l), Respiratory failure (SaO₂ ≤ 90% or PaO₂ ≤ 60 mmHg), Orientation disturbance (confusion) and low blood Pressure (systolic BP ≤ 90 mmHg) to COVID-19.

Results

At the time of admission, most patients had elevated CRP, LDH, ferritin, D-dimer, and IL-6 levels indicating multisystemic inflammatory syndrome (MIS). Altogether 49 patients (21.2%) required admission to ICU, 46 (19.7%) needed ventilation and 40 patients (17.2%) died. In the binary analysis, admission to ICU, the need for ventilation and death were all significantly associated with the duration of hospitalization, history of hypertension or obesity, confusion/dizziness, as well as higher absolute leukocyte and neutrophil and lower lymphocyte counts, elevated CRP, PCT, LDH, ferritin, IL-6, BUN, and creatinine levels, low PaO₂ and SaO₂ and higher A-DROP score at the time of admission (p < 0.05).

Conclusion

Numerous laboratory biomarkers in addition to obesity, dizziness at the time of admission and the history of hypertension may predict the need for ICU admission and ventilation, as well as mortality in COVID-19. Moreover, A-DROP may be a suitable scoring system for the assessment of general health and disease outcome in COVID-19.

Remote investigation and assessment of vital signs (RIA-VS)-proof of concept for contactless estimation of blood pressure, pulse, respiratory rate, and oxygen saturation in patients with suspicion of COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Vital signs are critical in assessing the severity and prognosis of infections, for example, COVID-19, influenza, sepsis, and pneumonia. This study aimed to evaluate a new method for rapid camera-based non-contact measurement of heart rate, blood oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, and blood pressure.

METHODS

Consecutive adult patients attending a hospital emergency department for suspected COVID-19 infection were invited to participate. Vital signs measured with a new camera-based method were compared to the corresponding standard reference methods. The camera device observed the patient's face for 30 s from ∼1 m.

RESULTS

Between 1 April and 1 October 2020, 214 subjects were included in the trial, 131 female (61%) and 83 male (39%). The mean age was 44 years (range 18-81 years). The new camera-based device's vital signs measurements were, on average, very close to the gold standard but the random variation was larger than the reference methods.

CONCLUSIONS

The principle of contactless measurement of blood pressure, pulse, respiratory rate, and oxygen saturation works, which is very promising. However, technical improvements to the equipment used in this study to reduce its random variability is required before clinical implementation. This will likely be a game changer once this is sorted out.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

Universal Trial Number (UTN) U1111-1251-4114 and the ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT04383457.

Utility of severity assessment tools in COVID-19 pneumonia: a multicentre observational study

BACKGROUND

Severity scores in pneumonia and sepsis are being applied to SARS-CoV-2 infection. We aimed to assess whether these severity scores are accurate predictors of early adverse outcomes in COVID-19.

METHODS

We conducted a multicentre observational study of hospitalised SARS-CoV-2 infection. We assessed risk scores (CURB65, qSOFA, Lac-CURB65, MuLBSTA and NEWS2) in relation to admission to intensive care or death within 7 days of admission, defined as early severe adverse events (ESAE). The 4C Mortality Score was also assessed in a sub-cohort of patients.

FINDINGS

In 2,387 participants, the overall mortality was 18%. In all scores examined, increasing score was associated with increased risk of ESAE. Area under the curve (AUC) to predict ESAE for CURB65, qSOFA, Lac-CURB65, MuLBSTA and NEWS2 were 0.61, 0.62, 0.59, 0.59 and 0.68, respectively. AUC to predict ESAE was 0.60 with ISARIC 4C Mortality Score.

CONCLUSION

None of the scores examined accurately predicted ESAE in SARS-CoV-2 infection. Non-validated scores should not be used to inform clinical decision making in COVID-19.

The timing of use of risk stratification tools affects their ability to predict mortality from sepsis. A meta-regression analysis

Background: Risk stratification tools (RSTs) are used in healthcare settings to identify patients at risk of sepsis and subsequent adverse outcomes. In practice RSTs are used on admission and thereafter as ‘trigger’ tools prompting sepsis management. However, studies investigating their performance report scores at a single timepoint which varies in relation to admission. The aim of this meta-analysis was to determine if the predictive performance of RSTs is altered by the timing of their use. Methods: We conducted a systematic review and meta-regression analysis of studies published from inception to 31 October 2018, using EMBASE and PubMed databases. Any cohort studies investigating the ability of an RST to predict mortality in adult sepsis patients admitted to hospital, from which a 2x2 table was available or could be constructed, were included. The diagnostic performance of RSTs in predicting mortality was the primary outcome. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and area under the receiver-operating curve (AUROC) were the primary measures, enabling further meta-regression analysis. Results: 47 studies were included, comprising 430,427 patients. Results of bivariate meta-regression analysis found tools using a first-recorded score were less sensitive than those using worst-recorded score (REML regression coefficient 0.57, 95% CI 0.07-1.08). Using worst-recorded score led to a large increase in sensitivity (summary sensitivity 0.76, 95% CI 0.67-0.83, for worst-recorded scores vs. 0.64 (0.57-0.71) for first-recorded scores). Scoring system type did not have a significant relationship with studies’ predictive ability. The most analysed RSTs were qSOFA (n=37) and EWS (n=14). Further analysis of these RSTs also found timing of their use to be associated with predictive performance. Conclusion: The timing of any RST is paramount to their predictive performance. This must be reflected in their use in practice, and lead to prospective studies in future.

Prevalence and clinical consequences of atelectasis in SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia: a computed tomography retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The aim of the study is to estimate the prevalence of atelectasis assessed with computer tomography (CT) in SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia and the relationship between the amount of atelectasis with oxygenation impairment, Intensive Care Unit admission rate and the length of in-hospital stay.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Two-hundred thirty-seven patients admitted to the hospital with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia diagnosed by clinical, radiology and molecular tests in the nasopharyngeal swab who underwent a chest computed tomography because of a respiratory worsening from Apr 1 to Apr 30, 2020 were included in the study. Patients were divided into three groups depending on the presence and amount of atelectasis at the computed tomography: no atelectasis, small atelectasis (< 5% of the estimated lung volume) or large atelectasis (> 5% of the estimated lung volume). In all patients, clinical severity, oxygen-therapy need, Intensive Care Unit admission rate, the length of in-hospital stay and in-hospital mortality data were collected.

RESULTS

Thirty patients (19%) showed small atelectasis while eight patients (5%) showed large atelectasis. One hundred and seventeen patients (76%) did not show atelectasis. Patients with large atelectasis compared to patients with small atelectasis had lower SatO2/FiO2 (182 vs 411 respectively, p = 0.01), needed more days of oxygen therapy (20 vs 5 days respectively, p = 0,02), more frequently Intensive Care Unit admission (75% vs 7% respectively, p < 0.01) and a longer period of hospitalization (40 vs 14 days respectively p < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

In patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia, atelectasis might appear in up to 24% of patients and the presence of larger amount of atelectasis is associated with worse oxygenation and clinical outcome.

M-BLUE protocol for coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) patients: interobserver variability and correlation with disease severity

AIM

To retrospectively evaluate the interobserver variability of intensive care unit (ICU) practitioners and radiologists who used the M-BLUE (modified bedside lung ultrasound in emergency) protocol to assess coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) patients, and to determine the correlation between total M-BLUE protocol score and three different scoring systems reflecting disease severity.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Institutional review board approval was obtained and informed consent was not required. Ninety-six lung ultrasonography (LUS) examinations were performed using the M-BLUE protocol in 79 consecutive COVID-19 patients. Two ICU practitioners and three radiologists reviewed video clips of the LUS of eight different regions in each lung retrospectively. Each observer, who was blind to the patient information, described each clip with M-BLUE terminology and assigned a corresponding score. Interobserver variability was assessed using intraclass correlation coefficient. Spearman's correlation coefficient analysis (R-value) was used to assess the correlation between the total score of the eight video clips and disease severity.

RESULTS

For different LUS signs, fair to good agreement was obtained (ICC = 0.601, 0.339, 0.334, and 0.557 for 0-3 points respectively). The overall interobserver variability was good for both the five different readers and consensus opinions (ICC = 0.618 and 0.607, respectively). There were good correlations between total LUS score and scores from three systems reflecting disease severity (R=0.394-0.660, p<0.01).

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, interobserver agreement for different signs and total scores in LUS is good and justifies its use in patients with COVID-19. The total scores of LUS are useful to indicate disease severity.

Comparing scoring systems for prediction of mortality in patients with bloodstream infection

BACKGROUND

Blood stream infections (BSIs) are associated with significant short-term mortality. There are many different scoring systems for assessing the severity of BSI.

AIM

We studied confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure, age 65(CURB65), Confusion Respiratory Rate, Blood pressure, age 65(CRB65), quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA), systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and assessed how effective they were at predicting 30-day mortality across three separate BSI cohorts.

DESIGN

A retrospective analysis was performed on three established BSI cohorts: (i) All cause BSI, (ii) Escherichia coli and (iii) Streptococcus pneumoniae.

METHODS

The performance characteristics (sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and area under receiver operating curve [AUROC]) for the prediction of 30-day mortality were calculated for the 5 scores using clinically relevant cut-offs.

RESULTS

528 patients were included: All cause BSI-148, E. coli-191 and S. pneumoniae-189. Overall, 30-day mortality was 22%. In predicting mortality, the AUROC for CURB65 and CRB65 were superior compared with qSOFA, SIRS and NEWS in the all cause BSI (0.72, 0.70, 0.66, 0.51 and 0.53) and E. coli cohorts (0.81, 0.76, 0.73, 0.55 and 0.71). In the pneumococcal cohort, CURB65, CRB65, qSOFA and NEWS were broadly equal (0.63, 0.65, 0.66 and 0.62), but all were superior to SIRS (0.57). CURB65, CRB65 and qSOFA had considerably higher accuracy than SIRS or NEWS across all cohorts.

CONCLUSION

CURB65 was superior to other scores in predicting 30-day mortality in the E. coli and all cause BSI cohorts. Further research is required to assess the potential of broadening the application of CURB65 beyond pneumonia.

High Child-Pugh and CRUB65 scores predict mortality of decompensated cirrhosis patients with COVID-19: A 23-center, retrospective study

Background: COVID-19 has rapidly become a major health emergency worldwide. The characteristic, outcome, and risk factor of COVID-19 in patients with decompensated cirrhosis remain unclear.

Methods: Medical records were collected from 23 Chinese hospitals. Patients with decompensated cirrhosis and age- and sex-matched non-liver disease patients were enrolled with 1:4 ratio using stratified sampling.

Results: There were more comorbidities with higher Chalson Complication Index (p < 0.001), higher proportion of patients having gastrointestinal bleeding, jaundice, ascites, and diarrhea among those patients (p < 0.05) and in decompensated cirrhosis patients. Mortality (p < 0.05) and the proportion of severe ill (p < 0.001) were significantly high among those patients. Patients in severe ill subgroup had higher mortality (p < 0.001), MELD, and CRUB65 score but lower lymphocytes count. Besides, this subgroup had larger proportion of patients with abnormal (PT), activated partial thromboplatin time (APTT), D-Dimer, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), total bilirubin (TBL) and Creatinine (Cr) (p < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression for severity shown that MELD and CRUB65 score reached significance. Higher Child-Pugh and CRUB65 scores were found among non-survival cases and multivariate logistic regression further inferred risk factors for adverse outcome. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves also provided remarkable demonstrations for the predictive ability of Child-Pugh and CRUB65 scores.

Conclusions: COVID-19 patients with cirrhosis had larger proportion of more severely disease and higher mortality. MELD and CRUB65 score at hospital admission may predict COVID-19 severity while Child-Pugh and CRUB65 score were highly associated with non-survival among those patients.

Pneumonia scoring systems for severe COVID-19: which one is better

PURPOSE

To investigate the predictive significance of different pneumonia scoring systems in clinical severity and mortality risk of patients with severe novel coronavirus pneumonia.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 53 cases of severe novel coronavirus pneumonia were confirmed. The APACHE II, MuLBSTA and CURB-65 scores of different treatment methods were calculated, and the predictive power of each score on clinical respiratory support treatment and mortality risk was compared.

RESULTS

The APACHE II score showed the largest area under ROC curve in both noninvasive and invasive respiratory support treatment assessments, which is significantly different from that of CURB-65. Further, the MuLBSTA score had the largest area under ROC curve in terms of death risk assessment, which is also significantly different from that of CURB-65; however, no difference was noted with the APACHE II score.

CONCLUSION

For patients with COVID, the APACHE II score is an effective predictor of the disease severity and mortality risk. Further, the MuLBSTA score is a good predictor only in terms of mortality risk.

Association of prior lymphopenia with mortality in pneumonia: a cohort study in UK primary care

BACKGROUND

Lymphopenia (reduced lymphocyte count) during infections, such as pneumonia, is common and is associated with increased mortality. Little is known about the relationship between lymphocyte count before developing infections and mortality risk.

AIM

To identify whether patients with lymphopenia who develop pneumonia have increased risk of death.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A cohort study set in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked to national death records, in primary care. This database is representative of the UK population and is extracted from routine records.

METHOD

Patients aged >50 years with a pneumonia diagnosis were included from January 1998 until January 2019. The relationship between lymphocyte count and mortality was measured, using a time-to-event (multivariable Cox regression) approach, adjusted for age, sex, social factors, and potential causes of lymphopenia. The primary analysis used the most recent test before pneumonia. The primary outcome was 28-day, all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 40 909 participants with pneumonia were included, with 28 556 having had a lymphocyte count test before pneumonia (median time between test and diagnosis was 677 days). When lymphocyte count was categorised (0-1 × 10⁹ cells/L, 1-2 × 10⁹ cells/L, 2-3 × 10⁹ cells/L, >3 × 10⁹ cells/L, never tested), both 28-day and 1-year mortality varied significantly: 14%, 9.2%, 6.5%, 6.1%, and 25%, respectively, for 28-day mortality, and 41%, 29%, 22%, 20%, and 52% for 1-year mortality. In multivariable Cox regression, lower lymphocyte count was consistently associated with increased hazard of death.

CONCLUSION

Lymphopenia is an independent predictor of mortality in primary care pneumonia. Even low-normal lymphopenia (1-2 × 10⁹ cells/L) is associated with an increase in short- and long-term mortality compared with higher counts.

Prognostic Implications of Preoperative Pneumonia for Geriatric Patients Undergoing Hip Fracture Surgery or Arthroplasty

Objective

To report outcomes of geriatric patients undergoing hip fracture surgery or arthroplasty with or without preoperative pneumonia and to evaluate the influence of pneumonia severity on patient prognosis.

Methods

In this single center retrospective study, we included geriatric patients (≥60 years old) who had undergone hip fracture surgery or arthroplasty at Peking University People's Hospital from January 2008 to September 2018. Patients with fractures caused by neoplasms or patients with incomplete clinical data were excluded. Using logistic regression and the CURB‐65 (confusion, uremia, respiratory rate, blood pressure, and age ≥65 years) score as a prediction tool of 1‐year mortality, the effect of preoperative pneumonia on 1‐year mortality was evaluated. Survival of patients with different response to pneumonia‐specific therapy and survival of patients with different pneumonia severity (evaluated with CURB‐65 score) were analyzed using Cox regression.

Results

A total of 1386 patients were included; among them, 109 patients (7.86%) were diagnosed with preoperative pneumonia. Outcomes were evaluated in August 2019 (at least 1 year after surgery for all patients). Compared to patients without preoperative pneumonia, patients with this condition had higher 30‐day mortality (11.9% vs 5%, P = 0.002) and 1‐year mortality rates (33.9% vs 16.3%, P < 0.001) and higher incidence of acute heart failure (7.3% vs 3.4%, P = 0.034) and acute kidney injury (5.5% vs 1.8%, P = 0.009). In multivariate regression, preoperative pneumonia was identified as an independent predictor of 1‐year mortality (odds ratio [OR], 1.45; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.39–3.52; P = 0.021), with other factors including age (≥84 years, OR, 1.46; 95% CI 1.08–1.60; P = 0.027), body mass index (<18.5 kg/m², OR 2.23; 95% CI 1.52–3.17, P < 0.001), anesthesia type (regional, OR 0.87; 95% CI 0.19–0.97, P = 0.042), preoperative pneumonia (OR 1.45; 95% CI 1.39–3.52; P = 0.002), congestive heart failure (OR 2.05, 95% CI 1.57–6.21, P < 0.001), chronic kidney disease (OR 1.73; 95% CI 1.50–2.62; P < 0.001). There was a trend of increased 1‐year mortality as the CURB‐65 score elevated (P for trend = 0.006). Cox regression reveals a higher risk of mortality in patient with preoperative pneumonia, especially in patients with no radiologic improvements after therapy (log‐rank, P = 0.035). Analysis of the impact of pneumonia severity on patient survival using Cox regression reveals that a CURB‐65 score ≥3 indicated a lower rate of survival (CURB‐65 score of 3: hazard ratio [HR] 3.12, 95% CI 1.39–7.03, P = 0.006; score of 4: HR 3.41, 95% CI 1.69–6.92, P = 0.001; score of 5: HR 6.28, 95% CI 2.95–13.35, P < 0.001).

Conclusion

In this single center retrospective study, preoperative pneumonia was identified as an independent risk factor of 1‐year mortality in geriatric patients undergoing hip fracture surgery or arthroplasty. A CURB‐65 score ≥3 indicated a higher risk of mortality.

Prediction for Progression Risk in Patients With COVID-19 Pneumonia: The CALL Score

Background

We aimed to clarify the high-risk factors with multivariate analysis and establish a prediction of disease progression, so as to help clinicians to better choose therapeutic strategy.

Methods

All the consecutive patients with COVID-19 admitted to Fuyang second people’s hospital or the fifth medical center of Chinese PLA general hospital between January 20 and February 22, 2020, were enrolled and their clinical data were retrospectively collected. Multivariate COX regression was used to identify the risk factors associated with progression, and then were incorporated into the nomogram to establish a novel prediction scoring model. ROC was used to assess the performance of the novel model.

Results

Overall, 208 patients were divided into stable group (n=168, 80.8%) and progressive group (n=40,19.2%) based on whether their conditions worsened during the hospitalization Univariate and multivariate analysis showed that comorbidity, older age, lower lymphocyte and higher lactate dehydrogenase at presentation were independent high-risk factors for COVID-19 progression. Incorporating these 4 factors, the nomogram achieved good concordance indexes of 0.86 (95%CI 0.81 - 0.91), and had well-fitted calibration curves. A novel scoring model, named as CALL, was established, and its area under ROC was 0.91 (95% CI 0.86 to 0.94). Using a cutoff value of 6 points, the positive and negative predictive values were 50.7% (38.9% - 62.4%) and 98.5% (94.7% - 99.8%), respectively.

Conclusion

Using the CALL score model, clinicians can improve the therapeutic effect and reduce the mortality of COVID-19 with more accurate and reasonable resolutions on medical resources.

An audit of community-acquired pneumonia antimicrobial compliance using an intervention bundle in an Irish hospital

•

Audit of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) antimicrobial compliance using an intervention bundle.

•

Intervention bundle including a MARS and promoting access to local CAP guidelines.

•

The intervention bundle can improve antimicrobial stewardship practices and reduce total duration of antibiotics.

•

The intervention bundle can also increase documentation of CURB-65 and uptake of streptococcal urinary antigen testing.

Objectives

Hospitalisations with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) are often not managed in accordance with antimicrobial guidelines. This study aimed to assess whether guideline-driven antimicrobial prescribing for CAP can be improved using an intervention bundle. Secondary measures assessed were hospital length of stay (LOS), mortality, duration of intravenous antibiotics and total antibiotics, improved uptake of appropriate investigations, and documentation of CURB-65 score.

Methods

A retrospective cohort of hospitalised CAP patients from August–September 2018 was compared with a post-intervention prospective cohort from May–June 2019. The intervention bundle included a mobile audience response system, promotion of the antimicrobial app, development of a physical card with local guidelines, and incorporating CURB-65 into the unscheduled admission proforma. Local guidelines are in keeping with British Thoracic Society CAP guidelines.

Results

A total of 69 adult patients (aged >18 years) were included in the study (37 retrospective, 32 prospective). Overall compliance with local CAP guidelines improved from 21.6% to 62.5% (P < 0.001). No difference in initial intravenous antibiotic duration was seen (median 4 days vs. 4 days; P = 0.70) and total antibiotic duration was significantly shorter in the post-intervention group (median 9 days vs. 7 days; P = 0.01). No difference in LOS or mortality was seen between the groups. Documentation of CURB-65 improved from 5.4% to 46.9% (P < 0.001). Uptake of streptococcal urinary antigen testing improved from 18.9% to 40.6% (P = 0.024).

Conclusions

A simple, low-cost quality improvement bundle can significantly increase appropriate antimicrobial prescribing and shorten the total antibiotic duration.

Early warning score validation methodologies and performance metrics: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Early warning scores (EWS) have been developed as clinical prognostication tools to identify acutely deteriorating patients. In the past few years, there has been a proliferation of studies that describe the development and validation of novel machine learning-based EWS. Systematic reviews of published studies which focus on evaluating performance of both well-established and novel EWS have shown conflicting conclusions. A possible reason is the heterogeneity in validation methods applied. In this review, we aim to examine the methodologies and metrics used in studies which perform EWS validation.

METHODS

A systematic review of all eligible studies from the MEDLINE database and other sources, was performed. Studies were eligible if they performed validation on at least one EWS and reported associations between EWS scores and inpatient mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) transfers, or cardiac arrest (CA) of adults. Two reviewers independently did a full-text review and performed data abstraction by using standardized data-worksheet based on the TRIPOD (Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis) checklist. Meta-analysis was not performed due to heterogeneity.

RESULTS

The key differences in validation methodologies identified were (1) validation dataset used, (2) outcomes of interest, (3) case definition, time of EWS use and aggregation methods, and (4) handling of missing values. In terms of case definition, among the 48 eligible studies, 34 used the patient episode case definition while 12 used the observation set case definition, and 2 did the validation using both case definitions. Of those that used the patient episode case definition, 18 studies validated the EWS at a single point of time, mostly using the first recorded observation. The review also found more than 10 different performance metrics reported among the studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Methodologies and performance metrics used in studies performing validation on EWS were heterogeneous hence making it difficult to interpret and compare EWS performance. Standardizing EWS validation methodology and reporting can potentially address this issue.

Pneumocystis jirovecii Pneumonia in Patients with Nephrotic Syndrome: Application of Lymphocyte Subset Analysis in Predicting Clinical Outcomes

Purpose

With immunosuppressants being widely used, Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PCP) has been increasing and could be life-threatening among HIV-negative patients. This study aimed at identifying prognostic factors of PCP in patients with nephrotic syndrome.

Methods

We retrospectively investigated patients with nephrotic syndrome who were diagnosed with PCP. The diagnosis of PCP was based on clinical manifestations, radiological findings, and microbiological confirmatory tests. Predictors of outcome were determined with multivariate logistic regression analysis.

Results

A total of 57 patients were included in this study. The PCP mortality was 33.3%, which increased to 48.6% if ICU admission was required and to 60% when mechanical ventilation was needed. The T lymphocyte count and CD4/CD8 ratio independently predicted the outcome of PCP, so did the CD4⁺ T lymphocyte count (OR, 0.981; 95% CI, 0.967–0.996; p=0.001). The cut-off value of 71 cells/μl for the CD4⁺ T lymphocyte count was determined to identify patients with poor prognosis. No association was found between PCP mortality and the type of immunosuppressant used.

Conclusions

PCP is a fatal complication among nephrotic syndrome patients receiving immunosuppressive therapy. The CD4⁺ T lymphocyte count is suggested as an independent predictor of prognosis, which can be used clinically to identify patients with high risk of unfavorable outcomes.

Model for end-stage liver disease and pneumonia: An improved scoring model for critically ill cirrhotic patients with pneumonia

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Critically ill patients with cirrhosis with pneumonia are at an increased risk for mortality. Only a few accurate predictive models are existing specific to these patients. The aim of the present study was to compare the existing prognostic models and to develop an improved mortality risk model for patients with cirrhosis and pneumonia.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 231 patients were enrolled in our study (70% training and 30% validation cohorts). All participants were followed up for at least 21 days. Model for End-stage Liver Disease and Pneumonia (MELD-P) was derived by the Cox proportional hazards model. The performances of prognostic scoring systems were compared by calculation of the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve.

RESULTS

MELD-P showed better discriminative capabilities than existing scoring systems. Four clinical variables, including loge bilirubin (hazard ratio (HR) 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.73), loge international normalized ratio (HR 3.57, 95% CI 1.30-9.78), loge pulse oxygen saturation/fraction of inspired oxygen (HR 0.38, 95% CI 0.14-0.99), and vasopressors used (HR 3.72, 95% CI 1.85-7.49), were considered as independent prognostic values associated with 21-day mortality. MELD-P had AUROC curve values of 0.78 (95% CI 0.71-0.84) in predicting in-hospital mortality, 0.78 (95% CI 0.70-0.84) at 21-day, 0.88 (95% CI 0.82-0.93) at 14-day, and 0.87 (95% CI 0.81-0.92) at 7-day. A similar result was obtained in validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

MELD-P, as the first model specifically designed to evaluate the risk of mortality in critically ill patients with cirrhosis and pneumonia, performs well on the mortality assessment of short-term mortality.

Clinical Features Predicting Mortality Risk in Patients With Viral Pneumonia: The MuLBSTA Score

Objective

The aim of this study was to further clarify clinical characteristics and predict mortality risk among patients with viral pneumonia.

Methods

A total of 528 patients with viral pneumonia at RuiJin hospital in Shanghai from May 2015 to May 2019 were recruited. Multiplex real-time RT-PCR was used to detect respiratory viruses. Demographic information, comorbidities, routine laboratory examinations, immunological indexes, etiological detections, radiological images and treatment were collected on admission.

Results

76 (14.4%) patients died within 90 days in hospital. A predictive MuLBSTA score was calculated on the basis of a multivariate logistic regression model in order to predict mortality with a weighted score that included multilobular infiltrates (OR = 5.20, 95% CI 1.41–12.52, p = 0.010; 5 points), lymphocyte ≤ 0.8^∗10⁹/L (OR = 4.53, 95% CI 2.55–8.05, p < 0.001; 4 points), bacterial coinfection (OR = 3.71, 95% CI 2.11–6.51, p < 0.001; 4 points), acute-smoker (OR = 3.19, 95% CI 1.34–6.26, p = 0.001; 3 points), quit-smoker (OR = 2.18, 95% CI 0.99–4.82, p = 0.054; 2 points), hypertension (OR = 2.39, 95% CI 1.55–4.26, p = 0.003; 2 points) and age ≥60 years (OR = 2.14, 95% CI 1.04–4.39, p = 0.038; 2 points). 12 points was used as a cut-off value for mortality risk stratification. This model showed sensitivity of 0.776, specificity of 0.778 and a better predictive ability than CURB-65 (AUROC = 0.773 vs. 0.717, p < 0.001).

Conclusion

Here, we designed an easy-to-use clinically predictive tool for assessing 90-day mortality risk of viral pneumonia. It can accurately stratify hospitalized patients with viral pneumonia into relevant risk categories and could provide guidance to make further clinical decisions.

The impact of certain underlying comorbidities on the risk of developing hospitalised pneumonia in England

Background

UK specific data on the risk of developing hospitalised CAP for patients with underlying comorbidities is lacking. This study compared the likelihood of hospitalised all-cause community acquired pneumonia (CAP) in patients with certain high-risk comorbidities and a comparator group with no known risk factors for pneumococcal disease.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study interrogated data in the Hospital Episodes Statistics (HES) dataset between financial years 2012/13 and 2016/17. In total 3,078,623 patients in England (aged ≥18 years) were linked to their hospitalisation records. This included 2,950,910 individuals with defined risk groups and a comparator group of 127,713 people who had undergone tooth extraction with none of the risk group diagnoses. Risk groups studied were chronic respiratory disease (CRD), chronic heart disease (CHD), chronic liver disease (CLD), chronic kidney disease (CKD), diabetes (DM) and post bone marrow transplant (BMT). The patients were tracked forward from year 0 (2012/13) to Year 3 (2016/17) and all diagnoses of hospitalised CAP were recorded. A Logistic regression model compared odds of developing hospitalised CAP for patients in risk groups compared to healthy controls. The model was simultaneously adjusted for age, sex, strategic heath authority (SHA), index of multiple deprivation (IMD), ethnicity, and comorbidity. To account for differing comorbidity profiles between populations the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) was applied. The model estimated odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals of developing hospitalised CAP for each specified clinical risk group.

Results

Patients within all the risk groups studied were more likely to develop hospitalised CAP than patients in the comparator group. The odds ratios varied between underlying conditions ranging from 1.18 (95% CI 1.13, 1.23) for those with DM to 5.48 (95% CI 5.28, 5.70) for those with CRD.

Conclusions

Individuals with any of 6 pre-defined underlying comorbidities are at significantly increased risk of developing hospitalised CAP compared to those with no underlying comorbid condition. Since the likelihood varies by risk group it should be possible to target patients with each of these underlying comorbidities with the most appropriate preventative measures, including immunisations.

Factors Affecting Cost of Patients with Severe Community-Acquired Pneumonia in Intensive Care Unit

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study is to investigate the factors affecting cost in patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) who were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective cohort study was conducted between January 2013 and December 2016. A total of 291 sequential patients with severe CAP were included in the study. Patients' demographic and clinical data; the need for invasive mechanical ventilation or non-invasive mechanical ventilation; intensive care severity (ICU) scores, including Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II), Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment, Quick SOFA, pneumonia severity index (PSI); and Confusion, Urea, Respiratory Rate, and Blood Pressure-65 (CURB-65) scores were obtained from medical records and recorded for all cases.

RESULTS

The mean age of 291 patients was 68.4±16.8 years, and 61% were female. The median length of ICU stay was 7 days. Forty-six percent of patients had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and 42% had hypertension. The mean cost of each hospitalization was US$ 2722 (TL 5578). The highest cost was found in the group of patients aged 50-59 years, and the lowest cost was found in the patients aged <50 years. A statistically significant relationship was found between ICU severity scores and health cost. The cost of patients in PSI class V, APACHE II (>20 points), and CURB-65 score were higher. The presence of COPD, atrial fibrillation, congestive heart failure, hypoalbuminemia, mental state deterioration, in-hospital mortality, severe sepsis, septic shock, mechanical ventilation requirement, and haloperidol and vasopressor usage were associated with higher cost, while the use of florokinolon was associated with lower cost.

CONCLUSION

The presence of certain comorbidities and high disease severity in patients with severe CAP hospitalized in ICU increase the cost of inpatient treatment. The need for mechanical ventilation during treatment and the presence of sepsis/septic shock are additional factors that increase the cost.

Blood circRNAs as biomarkers for the diagnosis of community-acquired pneumonia

Circular RNAs (circRNAs) have been reported as effective diagnostic and therapeutic biomarkers in many diseases, but the potential of using this easy-to-monitor and highly stable materials for diagnosing Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) remains unexplored. Here, aiming to identify potential CAP-related circRNAs in peripheral blood and seeking to deepen the understanding of how circRNA-miRNA-mRNA regulatory networks may contribute to CAP, we applied microarrays profiling analysis and identified 8296 differentially expressed (DE) circRNAs between patients with CAP (n = 6) and healthy controls (n = 6). Subsequently, we validated the accumulation trends for the top 100 DE circRNAs based on qPCR in an independent validation cohort (30 patients vs 30 controls), and ultimately identified a panel of four circRNAs that perform extremely well as sensitive and specific biomarkers for diagnosing CAP: hsa_circ_0018429 (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.8216), hsa_circ_0026579 (AUC = 0.7733), hsa_circ_0125357 (AUC = 0.7730), and hsa_circ_0099188 (AUC = 0.6978); combined as a panel (AUC = 0.8776). In addition, hsa_circ_0026579 exhibited good performance in differentiating viral from bacterial or mixed infection, with an AUC of 0.863. We also identified 10 miRNAs that most likely to interact with these four circRNAs, and then predicted 205 mRNA target genes. The KEGG pathway enrichment analysis suggested highly plausible functional implications related to inflammation and to virus-infection-related signaling pathways (such as HTLV-1 infection and hepatitis B infection). Thus, we generated a genetic network of potential CAP-related regulatory interactions that should inform future hypothesis-driven research into the causes and potential treatment of this widespread and frequently fatal disease.

Predictive and prognostic roles of electrical cardiometry in noninvasive assessments of community-acquired pneumonia patients with dyspnoea

Background:

Thoracic impedance monitoring able to detect pneumonia in the very early phase of emerging infiltration prior the patient developed remarkable clinical symptoms. However, no studies have yet been conducted on the usefulness of predicting pneumonia patient outcomes with parameters from electrical cardiometry.

Objective:

In the present study, we evaluated whether parameters measured by electrical cardiometry can predict clinical outcomes including mortality and length of hospital stay in patients with community-acquired pneumonia in the emergency department.

Methods:

Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were collected from enrolled patient. Electrical cardiometry monitoring was done with a portable electrical cardiometry device connected to the body surface sensor. The continuous data from electrical cardiometry were recorded, and parameters were stored on the electrical cardiometry device automatically and then the data were downloaded for further analysis.

Results:

Thoracic fluid content has shown to be significantly higher in the intensive care unit admission group and in the death group. Expired patients had higher value of thoracic fluid content at emergency department admission. From a receiver operating characteristics curve analysis, thoracic fluid content presented fair AUC values of 0.72 (95% confidence interval, 0.71–0.74) and 0.73 (0.62–0.82) for prediction of 28-day mortality and intensive care unit admission. Arterial partial pressure of oxygen (PaO2), the ratio of arterial partial pressure of oxygen to inspired oxygen fraction (PaO2/FiO2 ratio) also showed excellent AUC value for prediction of mortality and intensive care unit admission.

Conclusion:

Electrical cardiometry monitoring indicated new possibility to anticipate prognosis of community-acquired pneumonia patient. Increased thoracic fluid content value would relate worse outcome of the patient like mortality and intensive care unit admission. Electrical cardiometry monitoring allows real-time measurements of thoracic fluid content without restraining the patient or invasive catheters.

Meta-analysis of Calibration, Discrimination, and Stratum-Specific Likelihood Ratios for the CRB-65 Score

BACKGROUND

The CRB-65 score is recommended as a decision support tool to help identify patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) who can safely be treated as outpatients.

OBJECTIVE

To perform an updated meta-analysis of the accuracy, discrimination, and calibration of the CRB-65 score using a novel approach to calculation of stratum-specific likelihood ratios.

DESIGN

Meta-analysis of accuracy, discrimination, and calibration.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Google, previous systematic reviews, and reference lists of included studies. Data was abstracted and quality assessed in parallel by two investigators. The quality assessment used an adaptation of the TRIPOD and PROBAST criteria. Measures of discrimination, calibration, and stratum-specific likelihood ratios are reported.

KEY RESULTS

Twenty-nine studies met our inclusion criteria and provided usable data. Most studies were set in Europe, none in North America, and 12 were judged to be at low risk of bias. The pooled estimate of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.74 (95% CI 0.71-0.77) for all studies. Calibration was good although there was significant heterogeneity; the pooled estimate of the ratio of observed to expected mortality for all studies was 1.04 (95% CI 0.91-1.19). The corresponding values for studies at low risk of bias where patients could be treated as outpatients or inpatients were 0.76 (0.70-0.81) and 0.88 (0.69-1.13). Summary estimates of stratum-specific likelihood ratios for all studies were 0.19 for the low-risk group, 1.1 for the moderate-risk group, and 4.5 for the high-risk group, and 0.13, 1.3, and 5.6 for studies at low risk of bias where patients could be treated as outpatients or inpatients.

CONCLUSIONS

The CRB-65 is useful for identifying low-risk patients for outpatient therapy. Given a 4% overall mortality risk, patients classified as low risk by the CRB-65 had an outpatient mortality risk of no more than 0.5%.

Early identification of severe community-acquired pneumonia: a retrospective observational study

Background

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a leading cause of sepsis worldwide. Prompt identification of those at high risk of adverse outcomes improves survival by enabling early escalation of care. There are multiple severity assessment tools recommended for risk stratification; however, there is no consensus as to which tool should be used for those with CAP. We sought to assess whether pneumonia-specific, generic sepsis or early warning scores were most accurate at predicting adverse outcomes.

Methods

We performed a retrospective analysis of all cases of CAP admitted to a large, adult tertiary hospital in the UK between October 2014 and January 2016. All cases of CAP were eligible for inclusion and were reviewed by a senior respiratory physician to confirm the diagnosis. The association between the CURB65, Lac-CURB-65, quick Sequential (Sepsis-related) Organ Failure Assessment tool (qSOFA) score and National Early Warning Score (NEWS) at the time of admission and outcome measures including intensive care admission, length of hospital stay, in-hospital, 30-day, 90-day and 365-day all-cause mortality was assessed.

Results

1545 cases were included with 30-day mortality of 19%. Increasing score was significantly associated with increased risk of poor outcomes for all four tools. Overall accuracy assessed by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was significantly greater for the CURB65 and Lac-CURB-65 scores than qSOFA. At admission, a CURB65 ≥2, Lac-CURB-65 ≥moderate, qSOFA ≥2 and NEWS ≥medium identified 85.0%, 96.4%, 40.3% and 79.0% of those who died within 30 days, respectively. A Lac-CURB-65 ≥moderate had the highest negative predictive value: 95.6%.

Conclusion

All four scoring systems can stratify according to increasing risk in CAP; however, when a confident diagnosis of pneumonia can be made, these data support the use of pneumonia-specific tools rather than generic sepsis or early warning scores.

Mortality Predictive Scores for Community-Acquired Pneumonia in Children

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The use of severity score for the staging of pneumonias has emerged as a necessity for the physician caring for this disease. Although there are several established prognostic scoring systems for community-acquired pneumonia in adults, the availability for children are scarce.

RECENT FINDINGS

Recently, scoring system for risk stratification of children with pneumonia were developed in low- and middle-income countries. They use clinical variables that represent known risk factors for severe outcomes of respiratory illness in children, such as hypoxemia, chest indrawing, refusal to feed, malnutrition, age, and stage of HIV disease among others factors. Although they showed good discriminating power and are very useful in low-resource settings, the characteristics of the patients, the local epidemiology of concurrent diseases, the social conditions, and the facilities of the hospitals make them not applicable to developed countries. A new prognostic scale for estimating mortality based on the modified PIRO scale used in adults with pneumonia can be useful for developed countries. Although several scoring systems for the estimation of mortality in childhood CAP were developed in the last years, most of them come from developing countries and the results are not applicable to patients with pneumonia in developed countries. Prospective studies applying scores adapted to the reality of the developed countries are needed.

Guideline for Antibiotic Use in Adults with Community-acquired Pneumonia

Community-acquired pneumonia is common and important infectious disease in adults. This work represents an update to 2009 treatment guideline for community-acquired pneumonia in Korea. The present clinical practice guideline provides revised recommendations on the appropriate diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of community-acquired pneumonia in adults aged 19 years or older, taking into account the current situation regarding community-acquired pneumonia in Korea. This guideline may help reduce the difference in the level of treatment between medical institutions and medical staff, and enable efficient treatment. It may also reduce antibiotic resistance by preventing antibiotic misuse against acute lower respiratory tract infection in Korea.

Rebounds after discharge from the emergency department for community-acquired pneumonia: focus on the usefulness of severity scoring systems

Background:

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is common cause of hospital admission and leading cause of morbidity and mortality. Severity scoring systems are used to predict risk profile, outcome and mortality, and to help decisions about management strategies.

Aim of the work and Methods:

To critically analyze pneumonia “rebound” cases, once discharged from the emergency department (ED) and afterwards admitted. We conducted an observational clinical study in the acute setting of a university teaching hospital, prospectively analyzing, in a 1 year period, demographic, medical, clinical and laboratory data, and the outcome.

Results:

249 patients were discharged home with diagnosis of CAP; 80 cases (32.1%) resulted in the high-intermediate risk class according to CURB-65 or CRB-65. Twelve patients (4.8%) presented to the ED twice and were then admitted. At their first visit 5 were in the high-intermediate risk group; just 4 of them were in the non-low risk group at the time of their admission. The rebound cohort showed some peculiar abnormalities in laboratory parameters (coagulation and renal function) and severe chest X-rays characteristics. None died in 30 days.

Conclusions:

The power of CURB-65 to correctly predict mortality for CAP patients discharged home from the ED is not confirmed by our results; careful clinical judgement seems to be irreplaceable in the management process. Many patients with a high-intermediate risk according to CURB-65 can be safely treated as outpatients, according to adequate welfare conditions; we identified a subgroup of cases that should worth a special attention and, therefore, a brief observation period in the ED before the final decision to safely discharge or admit. (www.actabiomedica.it)

Early Warning Scores do not accurately predict mortality in sepsis: A meta-analysis and systematic review of the literature

OBJECTIVES

Early Warning Scores are used to evaluate patients in many hospital settings. It is not clear if these are accurate in predicting mortality in sepsis. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of multiple studies in sepsis. Our aim was to estimate the accuracy of EWS for mortality in this setting.

METHODS

PubMED, CINAHL, Cochrane, Web of Science and EMBASE were searched to October 2016. Studies of adults with sepsis who had EWS calculated using any appropriate tool (e.g. NEWS, MEWS) were eligible for inclusion. Study quality was assessed using QUADAS-2. Summary estimates were derived using HSROC analysis.

RESULTS

Six studies (4298 participants) were included. Results suggest that EWS cannot be used to predict which patients with sepsis will (positive likelihood ratio 1.79, 95% CI 1.53 to 2.11) or will not die (negative likelihood ratio 0.59, 95% CI 0.45 to 0.78). Two studies were rated as low risk of bias and one as unclear risk of bias on all domains. The other three studies were judged at high risk of bias in one domain.

CONCLUSION

Early Warning Scores are not sufficiently accurate to rule in or rule out mortality in patients with sepsis, based on the evidence available, which is generally poor quality.

Management of community-acquired pneumonia in immunocompetent adults: updated Swedish guidelines 2017

Based on expert group work, Swedish recommendations for the management of community-acquired pneumonia in adults are here updated. The management of sepsis-induced hypotension is addressed in detail, including monitoring and parenteral therapy. The importance of respiratory support in cases of acute respiratory failure is emphasized. Treatment with high-flow oxygen and non-invasive ventilation is recommended. The use of statins or steroids in general therapy is not found to be fully supported by evidence. In the management of pleural infection, new data show favourable effects of tissue plasminogen activator and deoxyribonuclease installation. Detailed recommendations for the vaccination of risk groups are afforded.

Prognostic value of early warning scores in the emergency department (ED) and acute medical unit (AMU): A narrative review

BACKGROUND

A wide array of early warning scores (EWS) have been developed and are used in different settings to detect which patients are at risk of deterioration. The aim of this review is to provide an overview of studies conducted on the value of EWS on predicting intensive care (ICU) admission and mortality in the emergency department (ED) and acute medical unit (AMU).

METHODS

A literature search was conducted in the bibliographic databases PubMed and EMBASE, from inception to April 2017. Two reviewers independently screened all potentially relevant titles and abstracts for eligibility.

RESULTS

42 studies were included. 36 studies reported on mortality as an endpoint, 13 reported ICU admission and 9 reported the composite outcome of mortality and ICU admission. For mortality prediction National Early Warning Score (NEWS) was the most accurate score in the general ED population and in those with respiratory distress, Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis score (MEDS) had the best accuracy in patients with an infection or sepsis. ICU admission was best predicted with NEWS, however in patients with an infection or sepsis Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) yielded better results for this outcome.

CONCLUSION

MEWS and NEWS generally had favourable results in the ED and AMU for all endpoints. Many studies have been performed on ED and AMU populations using heterogeneous prognostic scores. However, future studies should concentrate on a simple and easy to use prognostic score such as NEWS with the aim of introducing this throughout the (pre-hospital and hospital) acute care chain.