Assessing cigarette packaging and labelling policy effects on early adolescents: results from a discrete choice experiment

Would plain packaging and health warning labels reduce smoking in the presence of informal markets? A choice experiment in Colombia

BACKGROUND

Despite progress made by many countries on the adoption of plain tobacco packaging laws over the last years, low- and middle-income countries, with a large supply of loose cigarettes via informal vendors, remain far behind.

AIM

To study the potential effectiveness of plain tobacco packaging and dissuasive cigarette sticks, via willingness-to-pay estimates, when illicit cigarette options are available.

METHODS

We conducted a discrete choice experiment (DCE) in which respondents chose licit and illicit products with three attributes: packaging (standard vs. plain packaging), stick design (branded stick vs. stick with warning), and price level. The sample, collected on 12/2021, consisted of 1761 respondents from an internet panel involving smokers and nonsmokers. Conditional logit and latent class models were used to estimate the willingness-to-pay (WTP) to avoid restrictive packaging elements.

RESULTS

Nonsmokers are willing to pay USD $5.63 for a pack of cigarettes to avoid plain packaging, which is higher than the actual commercial price of illicit cigarettes (USD $2.40). The WTP increases to USD $12.14 in the presence of illicit alternatives. Smokers are also willing to pay to avoid illicit options, which they also deem riskier, and the presence of such options increases the WTP to avoid plain packaging. However, nonsmokers do not perceive the illicit option as riskier. The dissuasive stick (stick with warning) does not affect perceptions of risk and plays a small role in terms of choice for both smokers and nonsmokers.

CONCLUSIONS

Even in the presence of illicit tobacco alternatives, plain packaging seems to be as effective in reducing the attractiveness of tobacco products in Colombia as in other countries that have already adopted it. Given conflicting results on the case for dissuasive sticks, there is a need for more research.

The Use of Packaging Descriptors in a Rapidly Growing Market for Capsule Cigarettes: Evidence From Mexico

INTRODUCTION

The global market for capsule cigarettes has grown rapidly, especially in Latin America. This research examined the sales trends and patterns as well as packaging characteristics of capsule cigarette in Mexico in recent years.

METHODS

National data on cigarette sales in Mexico between October 2018 and September 2021 licensed from NielsenIQ were supplemented with cigarette pack pictures and Internet searches to determine whether characterizing flavor, concept flavor, and action descriptors were used. Market share in sales value and volume was calculated by capsule and flavor status, descriptors, price tier, manufacturer, pack size, and cigarette length for the whole time period and for each month. Number of unique brand variants was also examined.

RESULTS

Capsule cigarette sales totaled US$4.29 billion or 30.99 billion sticks during the assessed period, comprising 37.7% of the cigarette market share in sales value or 35.5% in sales volume. Over half of capsule cigarettes sold during this time period had concept flavor descriptors, 17.8% contained characterizing flavor descriptors, and 15.1% contained action descriptors that were suggestive of the interactive aspects of capsules. The monthly market share of capsule cigarette sales volume among all cigarette sales in Mexico increased steadily from 33.3% in October 2018 to 37.3% in September 2021.

CONCLUSIONS

The expanding capsule cigarette market in Mexico is concerning, given the product's associated misconceptions of reduced harm and greater appeal among youth. Findings underline the need for enhanced regulations to address the public health threat posed by capsule cigarettes.

IMPLICATIONS

Capsule cigarettes have a substantial market share in Mexico, with increasing popularity. Descriptors and other product characteristics such as cigarette length might be used to increase the appeal and target particular populations. Policy makers should consider banning capsules and flavors in cigarettes including descriptors or other indication in product presentation that could be perceived as denoting a taste, aroma, or sensation, and making the appearance and design of tobacco products more commensurate with the harm they cause by adopting plain and standardized packaging.

Does removing menthol cigarettes in convenience stores reduce susceptibility to cigarette smoking? An experimental investigation in young people

BACKGROUND

Evidence for the effectiveness of menthol cigarette bans comes mostly from studies of adults that smoke. This experiment evaluated whether the absence of menthol products from a convenience store influenced young people's susceptibility to cigarette smoking after they shopped in the store.

METHODS

This experiment took place in the RAND StoreLab (RSL), a life-sized research convenience store. A three-group, between-subjects design was used. Study conditions differed in the mix of flavored tobacco products the RSL displayed: 1) All tobacco-, sweet-, and menthol-flavors displayed; 2) only tobacco- and menthol-flavors displayed; and 3) only tobacco-flavors displayed. Participants were randomly assigned to shop in the RSL under one of these conditions and after shopping, completed measures of their susceptibility to cigarette smoking, one measure for menthol cigarettes and one for unflavored cigarettes (scores on each susceptibility measure was dichotomized: 0 = not susceptible; 1 = susceptible).

RESULTS

Multivariable logistic regression assessed the main effects of condition on susceptibility to smoking menthol and unflavored cigarettes. There was no condition effect on susceptibility to smoking unflavored cigarettes. However, removing menthol-flavored products significantly increased participants' susceptibility to smoking menthol cigarettes compared to when all flavored products were available (OR = 3.66, 95% CI [1.33, 10.03]). This significant effect was only found among young people with some pre-existing risk of cigarette smoking (OR = 5.92, 95% CI [1.81, 19.39]).

CONCLUSION

Results suggest the need to consider that menthol bans could unintentionally increase the appeal of menthol cigarettes among youth already at risk of smoking.

Graphic health warnings and plain packaging in the Philippines: results of online and household surveys

In line with Article 11 of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, the Philippines has implemented graphic health warnings on cigarette packs. To date, there has been no published literature evaluating the perceived effectiveness of GHWs in the Philippines. This study aims to contribute to the evidence on the perceived effects of graphic health warnings (GHWs) in cigarette packaging and the potential impact of plain packaging in the Philippines. The study involved an online convenience survey and a nationwide household survey. Mock-up sets of cigarette packs based on the Philippines' law on GHWs, and Thailand's and Singapore's plain packaging were shown to respondents to rate their attractiveness, quality, taste, cost, social appeal, appeal to youth, noticeability, appeal to non-smokers, attempt to quit, ease of quitting, discouraging smoking, and perceived harm to health on a five-point Lickert scale. The online and household surveys recruited 2,701 respondents in total. Online and household survey respondents considered plain packaging with larger graphic health warnings and visible quitlines from Thailand and Singapore to be more effective in discouraging them from smoking. Both sets of survey respondents also found mock-ups from Thailand and Singapore more motivating for them to attempt quitting than cigarette pack mock-ups from the Philippines. The study concludes that current graphic health warnings in the Philippines are ineffective in instilling health consciousness among Filipinos. Policymakers should consider larger graphic health warnings and plain packaging of cigarettes to motivate smokers to quit and discourage Filipinos from smoking.

Price differences between capsule, menthol non-capsule and unflavoured cigarettes in 65 countries in 2018

The global consumption of flavoured cigarettes, particularly capsule and menthol non-capsule cigarettes, has been rising rapidly. Their attractiveness has been fuelled by perceptions of improved palatability, along with industry marketing tactics such as lower price points in some regions. This study aimed to compare prices of unflavoured, capsule, and menthol non-capsule cigarettes across 65 countries by analysing 2018 cigarette price data from Euromonitor Passport. Median prices of capsule and menthol non-capsule cigarettes were each compared to unflavoured cigarettes at the country-level. Countries were included in the analysis if they contained price data for capsule or menthol non-capsule and unflavoured cigarettes (n = 65). The median price of capsule cigarettes was the same as unflavoured cigarettes in 12 out of 50 countries and not statistically different in another 31 countries (p > 0.05). Capsule cigarettes were more expensive than unflavoured cigarettes in five countries and cheaper in two (p < 0.05). The median price of menthol non-capsule cigarettes was the same as unflavoured cigarettes in 6 out of 51 countries and not statistically different in another 39 countries (p > 0.05). Menthol non-capsule cigarettes were more expensive than unflavoured cigarettes in five countries and cheaper in one country (p < 0.05). There was no pattern found in the pricing of capsule or menthol non-capsule cigarettes, suggesting variability in the tobacco industry's pricing strategies across countries. Tailoring tobacco control policies to match national market conditions, particularly in countries with significant market shares of capsule and menthol non-capsule cigarettes could help address the public health threat posed by the tobacco epidemic.

Effects of Modified Tobacco Risk Products with Claims and Nicotine Features on Perceptions among Racial and Ethnic Groups

Research suggests consumers may misunderstand modified risk tobacco product (MRTP) claims. We examined the effects of nicotine content across four tobacco products with and without MRTP claims among a racially and ethnically diverse sample of adults who do and do not smoke. Adults (n = 1484) aged 21-65 completed an online experiment using a 2 × 2 × 4 mixed factorial design to examine the effects of tobacco product (Classic White Snus, IQOS, JUUL e-cigarette, and VLN cigarette) and nicotine content (high vs. low) stratified by MRTP claim (present vs. absent) across four outcomes: (1) likely to try (2) serious disease if used regularly, (3) least addictive, and (4) ease of quitting smoking. Not including an MRTP claim resulted in an increased likelihood of trying a product, decreased concern of serious disease, lower perceived addictiveness, and increased ease of quitting smoking. Participants selected low nicotine IQOS without a claim as the least likely to cause serious disease. Low nicotine JUUL, without a claim, was selected as least addictive and most likely to facilitate quitting. Intentions to try were highest for low nicotine JUUL. Participants selected low-nicotine products as less addictive than high nicotine products. Regulatory efforts should consider how MRTP claims interact with different product characteristics. Subtle differences exist across outcomes between racial and ethnic groups, which indicates that further research is warranted.

How do current tobacco warnings compare to the WHO FCTC guidelines: a content analysis of combustible tobacco warnings worldwide

OBJECTIVE

Many countries have adopted warning labels for combustible tobacco products, yet little research exists describing tobacco warning characteristics globally and to what extent they meet the WHO Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC) Guidelines. This study evaluates characteristics of combustible tobacco warnings.

DESIGN

We conducted a content analysis to describe the overall landscape of warnings using descriptive statistics and compared to the WHO FCTC Guidelines.

SETTING

We searched existing warning databases for combustible tobacco warnings from English-speaking countries. We compiled warnings meeting inclusion criteria and coded for message and image characteristics using a pre-defined codebook.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES MEASURES

Characteristics of combustible tobacco warning text statements and warning images were the primary study outcomes. There were no secondary study outcomes.

RESULTS

We identified a total of 316 warnings from 26 countries or jurisdictions worldwide. Of these warnings, 94% included warning text and an image. Warning text statements most often described health effects to the respiratory (26%), circulatory (19%) and reproductive systems (19%). Cancer was the most frequently mentioned health topic (28%). Fewer than half of warnings included a Quitline resource (41%). Few warnings included messages about secondhand smoke (11%), addiction (6%) or cost (1%). Of warnings with images, most were in colour and showed people (88%), mostly adults (40%). More than 1 in 5 warnings with images included a smoking cue (ie, cigarette).

CONCLUSIONS

While most tobacco warnings followed WHO FCTC guidance on effective tobacco warnings, such as communicating health risks and inclusion of images, many did not include local Quitline or cessation resources. A sizeable minority include smoking cues that could inhibit effectiveness. Full alignment with WHO FCTC guidelines will improve warnings and better achieve the WHO FCTC objectives.

First tobacco product tried and current use of cigarettes and electronic cigarettes among adolescents from Guatemala City

OBJECTIVE

To assess how first experimenting with ciga-rettes or e-cigarettes is associated with current use in Gua-temala, a middle-income country with weak tobacco control and no e-cigarette regulations.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We surveyed students from private schools in Guatemala City, limiting analyses to ever users (n=1 026). Multinomial logistic models regressed current product use on first product used, adjusting for sociodemographics and friends and family use.

RESULTS

The most common first product used was e-cigarettes (56%), followed by flavored cigarettes (24%) and regular cigarettes (20%). At the time of the survey, 4% were exclusive smokers, 37% were exclusive e-cigarette users, 18% dual users, and 40% had ever tried either but were not current users. Compared to those who first tried cigarettes, students who first tried e-cigarettes were less likely to be current smokers (RR=0.19 [CI: 0.11,0.31]) or dual users (RR=0.26 [CI: 0.14,0.49]) and students who first tried flavored cigarettes were more likely to be current smokers (RR=1.66 [CI=1.13,2.42]).

CONCLUSIONS

In our sample, Guatemalan adolescents from private schools more frequently experiment and continue to use e-cigarettes than cigarettes. There is urgent need to implement e-cigarette restrictions in addition to tobacco control policy implementation.

Impact of Visual Elements of Tobacco Packaging on Health Risk Perceptions of Youth Groups

Tobacco products are hazardous to public health and are one of the greater public health threats facing the world to date. Although international research on tobacco packaging has been thorough and comprehensive, the risk perception of visual elements in tobacco packaging varies by country, race, and smoking status. Therefore, the study aimed to investigate the risk perceptions of visual elements in tobacco packaging among young and middle-aged people in selected cities in China. This study used a questionnaire to construct an index system for visual elements of tobacco packaging and used it to design a related questionnaire. Our group conducted an online questionnaire survey among 296 young people (18-44 years old) in selected cities in China between 16 June and 26 June 2022. The results of the influence of visual elements of tobacco packaging on the perception of tobacco health risks in the youth group were analyzed by SPSS 26.0. A chi-square test analysis yielded differences in the perception of tobacco package color among youths with different smoking status. A linear regression analysis revealed that age group and visual elements were significant, and five groups of visual element comparisons had an effect on the youth group. First, there were differences in the perceptions of tobacco products among participants with different smoking status. Secondly, the more youthful the respondents were, the greater the probability that they were able to identify that the picture fitness warnings had a greater probability of making them conscious of the fitness dangers of smoking (p < 0.05). The older the participants, the greater the probability that the textual content fitness warnings made them conscious of the fitness risks of smoking (p < 0.05). Third, the percentage of health warnings did not make a good-sized impact for the youth groups (p > 0.05). Fourth, the more youthful the participant, the greater the probability that cigarette products with whole brand images would appeal to buyer(p < 0.01).

Standardised packs and larger health warnings: visual attention and perceptions among Colombian smokers and non-smokers

AIMS

To measure how cigarette packaging (standardised packaging and branded packaging) and health warning size affect visual attention and pack preferences among Colombian smokers and non-smokers.

DESIGN

To explore visual attention, we used an eye-tracking experiment where non-smokers, weekly smokers and daily smokers were shown cigarette packs varying in warning size (30%-pictorial on top of the text, 30%-pictorial and text side-by-side, 50%, 70%) and packaging (standardised packaging, branded packaging). We used a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to examine the impact of warning size, packaging and brand name on preferences to try, taste perceptions and perceptions of harm.

SETTING

Eye-tracking laboratory, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, Colombia.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants (n = 175) were 18 to 40 years old.

MEASUREMENTS

For the eye-tracking experiment, our primary outcome measure was the number of fixations toward the health warning compared with the branding. For the DCE, outcome measures were preferences to try, taste perceptions and harm perceptions.

FINDINGS

We observed greater visual attention to warning labels on standardised versus branded packages (F[3,167] = 22.87, P < 0.001) and when warnings were larger (F[9,161] = 147.17, P < 0.001); as warning size increased, the difference in visual attention to warnings between standardised and branded packaging decreased (F[9,161] = 4.44, P < 0.001). Non-smokers visually attended toward the warnings more than smokers, but as warning size increased these differences decreased (F[6,334] = 2.92, P = 0.009). For the DCE, conditional trials showed that increasing the warning size from 30% to 70% reduced preferences to try (odds ratio [OR] = 0.48, 95% CI = [0.42,0.54], P < 0.001), taste perceptions (OR = 0.61, 95% CI = [0.54,0.68], P < 0.001); and increased harm perceptions (OR = 0.78, 95% CI = [0.76,0.80], P < 0.001). Compared with branded packaging, standardised packaging reduced our DCE outcome measures with ORs ranging from OR = 0.25 (95% CI = [0.17,0.38], P < 0.001) to OR = 0.79 (95% CI = [0.67,0.93], P < 0.001) across two brands. These effects were more pronounced among non-smokers, males and younger participants. Unconditional trials showed similar results.

CONCLUSIONS

Standardised cigarette packaging and larger health warnings appear to decrease positive pack perceptions and have the potential to reduce the demand for cigarette products in Colombia.

Strategies to enhance the effects of pictorial warnings for cigarettes: results from a discrete choice experiment

AIMS

To measure the effects of changing attributes of pictorial health warning labels (HWLs) on cigarette packs in a country that has already implemented pictorial HWLs.

MEASURES

For each choice set, participants were presented with two cigarette packs and asked the following three questions: (1) 'If only these two cigarette packs were available, which would you buy?'; (2) 'Each of these two packs has warnings on the front and back about the health effects of smoking. Which of these warnings best informs you about the dangers from smoking?'; and (3) 'Which warning most makes you think about quitting smoking?'. As recommended for best practices in discrete choice experiments, each of these questions was followed by an 'opt-out' question for participants to indicate whether they really believed there was a difference between the options presented (i.e. 'Would you really choose one of them?'; 'Do you really think that either of these warnings informs you about dangers from smoking?'; or 'Do you really think that either of these warnings would make you think about quitting smoking?', respectively). Each choice set could be viewed for as long as the participant wished. For each choice question (i.e. willingness to buy, informative, motivating to quit), the pack chosen was coded as 1 and the other pack as 0, with both packs being given a value of 0 if the participant 'opted out'.

DESIGN

A within-subject discrete choice experiment that involved systematic manipulation of pictorial HWL size [75 versus 30% (current policy)]; inclusion of imagery on the back of the pack [versus none (current policy)]; and color formatting [black on yellow versus yellow on black (current policy)].

SETTING

Mexico, on-line panel.

PARTICIPANTS

Adult smokers (n = 705).

MEASUREMENTS

For each choice set, participants selected one pack as having the most informative HWL about smoking harms, the one that makes them think the most about quitting and the one they were most willing to buy. We assessed the independent and interactive effects of HWL attributes on choices.

FINDINGS

Larger HWL size on the pack front (75 versus 30%) and inclusion of a pictorial image on the pack back were both independently associated with lower willingness to buy a pack [b = -0.228, standard error (SE) = 0.023 and -0.089, SE = 0.016, respectively] and greater perception of an HWL as informative (b = 0.214, SE = 0.022, and 0.191, SE = 0.017, respectively) and motivating to quit (b = 0.251, SE = 0.023 and 0.194, SE = 0.017, respectively). HWL with black text and yellow background were perceived as less informative (b = -0.037, SE = 0.016) and less motivating to quit (b = -0.032, SE = 0.015) compared with yellow text on a black background.

CONCLUSIONS

Among adult Mexican smokers, pictorial health warning labels on cigarette packages that are larger or cover both sides of the pack appear more effective at lowering purchase intentions and increasing risk perceptions and motivation to quit than smaller health warning labels or health warning labels with imagery only on the pack front.

Heated tobacco product use, its correlates, and reasons for use among Mexican smokers

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the use of novel heated tobacco products (HTPs) in low- and middle-income countries. We examined among smokers in Mexico the prevalence and correlates of HTP use, as well as reasons for using HTPs.

METHODS

We analyzed data from five surveys (November 2019-March 2021) of an open cohort of adult smokers (n = 6500), including an oversample of those who also use e-cigarettes. Mixed-effects multinomial logistic models were used to estimate associations between study variables and current HTP use or prior HTP trial relative to never trying HTPs.

RESULTS

The weighted prevalence of current HTP use was 1.1%. Independent correlates of current HTP use included smoking frequency, intention to quit, e-cigarette use, having partners/family-members who use e-cigarettes, friends who use HTPs, and exposure to HTP information inside/outside tobacco shops. Having partners/family members who smoke and not knowing about the harm of HTPs relative to cigarettes were associated with lower likelihood of current HTP use. Having tried HTPs was more likely among light daily smokers, those with family who use HTPs and exposure to HTP information outside shops and on newspapers/magazines. Among current users, the top reasons for using HTPs were greater social acceptability (50.6%) and lower perceived harm (34.9%) relative to cigarettes.

CONCLUSIONS

Uptake of HTPs appears relatively low among Mexican smokers, and correlates of use are similar to those for e-cigarette use. Further research is needed to determine if HTPs use promotes or impedes smoking cessation, given current HTP users are also likely to use various nicotine products.

Achievements, challenges, priorities and needs to address the current tobacco epidemic in Latin America

Most Latin American countries have signed and ratified the FCTC, although implementation has been uneven. Countries across the region were relatively quick to adopt mandatory smoke-free workplace policies, but regional progress in other areas has been slower. In taxation, for example, Uruguay and Brazil have made considerable progress while Paraguay and Bolivia have relatively weak policies. More recently, the region is grappling with challenges regulating novel tobacco and nicotine products. Market share for flavor capsule cigarettes in Latin America is the highest in the world; electronic cigarettes and heated tobacco products are, for the most part, dissimilarly regulated; and uptake of these emerging products by adolescents and young adults is on the rise. In examining the needs and challenges in the region, we conclude that the adoption of a strong regulatory framework based on the FCTC and its Protocols is needed to accelerate a positive public health impact. In particular, countries in the region need more consistent progress in implementing FCTC provisions while strengthening regulation of flavored tobacco products, electronic cigarettes and heated tobacco products. Failing to do so threatens to undermine the progress Latin America has made in tobacco use prevention and control.

Effects of tobacco product type and characteristics on appeal and perceived harm: Results from a discrete choice experiment among Guatemalan adolescents

Guatemala is one of the few countries where both heated tobacco products (HTPs) and electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) remain unregulated. We used a discrete choice experiment (DCE) administered to 2038 high school students to assess how tobacco product attributes influence their appeal among Guatemalan adolescents. Participants were randomly assigned to evaluate 4 of 32 contrasting sets, each containing 3 packs (1 of each product type). Experimental manipulations included: product type, brand, nicotine content and flavor. Participants then indicated which product they were most and least interested in trying and would be most and least harmful to their health. Conditional logistic regression models were used to assess the impact of product characteristics on choice. Product type accounted for almost 90% of variation in choices. Respondents were less interested in trying HTPs (B = -0.93; p < 0.001) and viewed them as more harmful (B = 2.77; p < 0.001) compared to cigarettes. They were more interested in trying e-cigarettes (B = 1.22; p < 0.001), which were also perceived as less harmful (B = -1.47; p < 0.001) compared to cigarettes. Products without nicotine were of more interest for trying (B = 0.14; p < 0.001) and perceived as more harmful (B = 0.20; p < 0.001) than those with. Students were more interested in trying a flavor compared to regular tobacco and among the flavors, berry was the highest rated one (B = 0.28; p < 0.001). Finally, in this country with weak tobacco control, e-cigarettes appear to be more appealing and perceived as less harmful than HTPs and cigarettes. Packaging and flavoring regulations are urgently needed on these products as they are a marketing strategy targeting adolescents.

Methods for Conducting Stated Preference Research with Children and Adolescents in Health: A Scoping Review of the Application of Discrete Choice Experiments

BACKGROUND

Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) are a common method used to describe and quantitatively assess preferences in health applications. Increasingly, DCEs have been used to elicit preferences from children and adolescents and generate evidence to inform policies affecting this population.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this review was to summarize and describe the application of DCEs conducted with children and adolescents and describe author-reported age-specific considerations in design, implementation, and analysis.

METHODS

A scoping review was conducted using a 'pearl-growing' technique whereby the reference lists of existing systematic reviews of DCEs were used to identify potential studies conducted with children or adolescents as respondents published between 1990 and 2017. This list was supplemented with an updated electronic search using the same strategy as the initial reviews to identify studies from 2017 to 2020.

RESULTS

Of 480 studies identified, 19 were included; topics included vaccines (32%), drugs/medical devices (26%), treatment or health promotion interventions/programs (21%), warning labels on cigarettes/nicotine products (10%), and preferences for physical activity and healthy food choices (10%). The youngest reported age for independent DCE completion was 8 years. Approaches to assessing validity and reliability of choices were consistent with best practices for the conduct of DCEs. Reported age-specific considerations included use of visual aids, age-appropriate language, reducing task complexity and cognitive burden, and exploration of interpretation of willingness-to-pay.

CONCLUSION

The number of DCEs conducted with children and adolescents has increased in recent years. Detailed explanation of why reported age-specific considerations were necessary, how they could be used to interpret results, or to understand the appropriateness of this methodology for different age groups was limited. Despite a recognition of the need for special consideration when conducting DCEs in this population, the unique issues in the context of age-specific considerations are largely unexplored, and further research is required. Moving forward, stated preference research conducted with children and adolescents should report in more detail methods of recruitment, results of validity assessments, and provide specific reflection on the extent to which modeled results are consistent with expectations and underlying theory.

The duration effect of pictorial health warnings on tobacco consumption in Mexico

Pictorial health warnings (PHW) were introduced in Mexico by the end of 2010. Different studies have assessed how PHW influence attitude or desire to renounce smoking, but they have not studied the actual effect on the demand of tobacco products. Our objective in this paper is to analyze the effect of duration of pictorial health warnings on consumption of tobacco in Mexico. We assess the influence of different consecutive rounds of pictorial warnings, taking into account their length and the use of repeated images. We use a Dynamic Least Squares model (DOLS) with quarterly data (1994-2015), to estimate the long run demand of cigarettes in Mexico, as a function of per-capita income, the relative price of tobacco, different regulatory measures and the different rounds of pictograms, its duration, and the use of repeated images. We find evidence indicating that the pictorial health warnings have reduced consumption of cigarettes, that the effect has decreased in the last rounds, and that the most effective duration of the rounds is six months. PHW regulation deters consumption; however, its effectiveness decreases over time, suggesting that consumers tend to adapt to images.