Extended cost-benefit analysis of tobacco taxation in Brazil

Equity implications of tobacco taxation: results from WHO FCTC investment cases

BACKGROUND

Across time, geographies and country income levels, smoking prevalence is highest among people with lower incomes. Smoking causes further impoverishment of those on the lower end of the income spectrum through expenditure on tobacco and greater risk of ill health.

METHODS

This paper summarises the results of investment case equity analyses for 19 countries, presenting the effects of increased taxation on smoking prevalence, health and expenditures. We disaggregate the number of people who smoke, smoking-attributable mortality and cigarette expenditures using smoking prevalence data by income quintile. A uniform 30% increase in price was applied across countries. We estimated the effects of the price increase on smoking prevalence, mortality and cigarette expenditures.

RESULTS

In all but one country (Bhutan), a one-time 30% increase in price would reduce smoking prevalence by the largest percent among the poorest 20% of the population. All income groups in all countries would spend more on cigarettes with a 30% increase in price. However, the poorest 20% would pay an average of 12% of the additional money spent.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results confirm that health benefits from increases in price through taxation are pro-poor. Even in countries where smoking prevalence is higher among wealthier groups, increasing prices can still be pro-poor due to variable responsiveness to higher prices. The costs associated with higher smoking prevalence among the poor, together with often limited access to healthcare services and displaced spending on basic needs, result in health inequality and perpetuate the cycle of poverty.

Global burden of stomach cancer attributable to smoking from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2044

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to assess the global temporal trends of stomach cancer attributable to smoking from 1990 to 2019 and to predict the global burden by 2044.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a comprehensive analysis based on data provided by the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

METHODS

Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and corresponding age-standardised rates of stomach cancer attributable to smoking by sociodemographic index (SDI), region, country, sex, and age were used to assess temporal trends from 1990 to 2019 by calculating the average annual percentage change (AAPC). In addition, the global burden of stomach cancer attributable to smoking up to 2044 was predicted using age-period-cohort models.

RESULTS

Globally, in 2019, 17.96% of stomach cancer deaths (1.72 million) and 17.15% of stomach cancer DALYs (38.13 million) were attributable to smoking, representing an increase compared to 1990; however, smoking-attributable age-standardised rates of mortality (ASMRs) and DALYs (ASDRs) significantly declined to 2.12/100,000 and 45.82/100,000 in 2019, respectively. While stomach cancer ASMR and ASDR attributable to smoking decreased in all regions and in most countries, they increased by >10% in some countries. A positive correlation was found between SDI and age-standardised rates (rASMR = 0.28, P < 0.01; rASDR = 0.29, P < 0.01). By 2044, although global age-standardised rates for smoking-attributable stomach cancer are predicted to decline, deaths and DALYs are estimated to increase to 2.22 million and 42.14 million, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Stomach cancer deaths and DALYs attributable to smoking have increased over the past 30 years and will continue to increase. Consequently, targeted prevention efforts and tobacco-control strategies need to be further developed and improved.

Patterns of Birth Cohort‒Specific Smoking Histories in Brazil

INTRODUCTION

Smoking prevalence has decreased considerably in Brazil from 34.8% in 1989 to 12.6% in 2019 owing to the implementation of strong tobacco control policies. However, recent data show that the downward trend may be stagnating. Detailed analyses of historical smoking patterns by birth cohort could guide tobacco control decision making in Brazil.

METHODS

Using the 2008 Global Adult Tobacco Survey and the 2013 and 2019 National Health Surveys, historical smoking patterns in Brazil were estimated, supplemented with data from the 2006‒2019 Surveillance System of Risk Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Interviews. Age‒period‒cohort models with constrained natural splines were applied to estimate the annual probabilities of smoking initiation and cessation, current smoker prevalence, and mean cigarettes smoked per day by age, gender, and birth cohort. Analysis was conducted in 2021‒2022.

RESULTS

Current smoker prevalence has declined considerably since the 1950 and 1955 birth cohorts for males and females, respectively, reflecting decreased smoking initiation and increased smoking-cessation probabilities over time. Among female cohorts born on or after 2000, smoking initiation may be increasing even as their smoking cessation has increased considerably. Mean cigarettes smoked per day has remained relatively constant across period and cohorts, showing only a minor decrease among males.

CONCLUSIONS

These detailed cohort-specific smoking parameters can be used to inform models that evaluate the impact of tobacco use and policies on long-term health outcomes and guide public health decision making in Brazil. Stagnant mean cigarettes smoked per day, increasing female smoking initiation, and limited improvement in male cessation among recent cohorts present challenges to tobacco control.

Global burden of cancers attributable to tobacco smoking, 1990-2019: an ecological study

Aim and background

Identifying risk factors for cancer initiation and progression is the cornerstone of the preventive approach to cancer management and control (EPMA J. 4(1):6, 2013). Tobacco smoking is a well-recognized risk factor for initiation and spread of several cancers. The predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine (PPPM) approach to cancer management and control focuses on smoking cessation as an essential cancer prevention strategy. Towards this end, this study examines the temporal patterns of cancer burden due to tobacco smoking in the last three decades at global, regional, and national levels.

Data and methods

The data pertaining to the burden of 16 cancers attributable to tobacco smoking at global, regional, and national levels were procured from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study. Two main indicators, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), were used to describe the burden of cancers attributable to tobacco smoking. The socio-economic development of countries was measured using the socio-demographic index (SDI).

Results

Globally, deaths due to neoplasms caused by tobacco smoking increased from 1.5 million in 1990 to 2.5 million in 2019, whereas the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) decreased from 39.8/100,000 to 30.6/100,000 and the age-standardized DALY rate (ASDALR) decreased from 948.9/100,000 to 677.3/100,000 between 1990 and 2019. Males accounted for approximately 80% of global deaths and DALYs in 2019. Populous regions of Asia and a few regions of Europe account for the largest absolute burden, whereas countries in Europe and America have the highest age-standardized rates of cancers due to tobacco smoking. In 8 out of 21 regions, there were more than 100,000 deaths due to cancers attributable to tobacco smoking led by East Asia, followed by Western Europe in 2019. The regions of Sub-Saharan Africa (except southern region) had one of the lowest absolute counts of deaths, DALYs, and age-standardized rates. In 2019, tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL), esophageal, stomach, colorectal, and pancreatic cancer were the top 5 neoplasms attributable to tobacco smoking, with different burdens in regions as per their development status. The ASMR and ASDALR of neoplasms due to tobacco smoking were positively correlated with SDI, with pairwise correlation coefficient of 0.55 and 0.52, respectively.

Conclusion

As a preventive tool, tobacco smoking cessation has the biggest potential among all risk factors for preventing millions of cancer deaths every year. Cancer burden due to tobacco smoking is found to be higher in males and is positively associated with socio-economic development of countries. As tobacco smoking begins mostly at younger ages and the epidemic is unfolding in several parts of the world, more accelerated efforts are required towards tobacco cessation and preventing youth from entering this addiction. The PPPM approach to medicine suggests that not only personalized and precision medicine must be provided to cancer patients afflicted by tobacco smoking but personalized and targeted preventive solutions must be provided to prevent initiation and progression of smoking.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13167-022-00308-y.