Differential price responses for tobacco consumption: implications for tax incidence

On the impacts of higher tobacco taxes in Argentina: a computable general equilibrium approach

OBJECTIVES

We analyse the employment effects of increasing tobacco taxation in Argentina by building a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model.

METHODS

In line with recent changes in tobacco taxation in the country, the CGE model simulates an increase in excise tax on cigarettes.

RESULTS

The results show that even a substantial increase in tobacco taxation induces a zero-net change in overall employment in the economy when the newly raised tax revenues are spent by the government on education, health or public infrastructure. Increased tobacco taxes may shift jobs from tobacco-related sectors to other sectors of the economy, but the overall impact on the total number of jobs is negligible.

CONCLUSIONS

The widely documented positive effects of higher tobacco taxes (including a healthier population, more productive workers, savings from avoided costs of medical treatment for tobacco-related diseases, reductions in the number of new young smokers, among others) would far outweigh the nearly null effect of higher taxes on total net employment.

Cost Comparison and Spending on Tobacco Products: Evidence from A Nationally Representative Sample of Adult E-Cigarette Users

Background

Over 20 states and local jurisdictions in the U.S. have imposed e-cigarette taxes. It is important to evaluate how adult vapers, including those who also smoke respond to e-cigarette taxation. The purpose of this study is to examine factors associated with adult vapers' cost perception of e-cigarettes relative to cigarettes and budget allocations between two products.

Methods

We recruited a nationally representative sample of 801 adult e-cigarette users in the U.S., who participated in an online survey in April and May 2023. Nested-ordered logit models and ordinary least squares regressions were used in the analysis.

Results

On average, monthly e-cigarette spending was $82.22, and cigarette spending was $118.77 among dual users. Less frequent e-cigarette use and higher state-level e-cigarette taxes were associated with perceiving smoking as cheaper than vaping. Age and exclusive use of tank systems were associated with perceiving vaping as cheaper than smoking. Exclusive use of tank systems was also associated with lower e-cigarette spending. Adults who used e-cigarettes more frequently preferred to report weekly budget on e-cigarettes ( p < 0.01), and among dual users, everyday smokers preferred to report weekly (versus monthly) budget on cigarettes compared to someday smokers ( p < 0.001).

Conclusion

Among US adult vapers, frequencies of tobacco use and e-cigarette device type are closely related to cost measures; and e-cigarette taxes are associated with cost perception of e-cigarettes relative to cigarettes, suggesting potential financial disincentive for vaping. Policymaker may consider imposing differential taxes by e-cigarette product types due to their different costs to consumers.

How much to pay for a track and trace system: a simulation model for South Africa

BACKGROUND

The illicit trade in tobacco reduces the effectiveness of tobacco-control policies. Independent track and trace (T&T) systems are considered one of the most effective measures available to reduce the illicit tobacco trade. South Africa, with an illicit trade estimated at over 35% of the total market, is yet to implement a T&T system.

METHODS

An Excel-based simulation model is used to determine the break-even T&T marker cost per pack. At the break-even cost per pack, the government would recover all costs associated with implementing T&T by collecting additional revenues. We conduct a scenario analysis to provide a range of break-even marker costs.

FINDINGS

A marker cost of between R2.68 (US$0.17) and R5.24 (US$0.34) per pack allows the South African government to collect enough additional revenue to recover all costs associated with T&T. Implementing such a system would reduce cigarette consumption by between 5% and 11.5%. Given that comparable systems cost significantly less than this range (roughly US$0.02 per pack), the government would in all likelihood be able to implement a system at a cost below the break-even rate, thus generating additional revenue.

CONCLUSION

The break-even simulation model provides a practical tool for the government to plan the implementation of T&T and to set up an evaluation criteria for the T&T tender process. The simulations illustrate that implementing T&T in South Africa would both reduce consumption (licit and illicit) and generate additional revenue. With some modifications, the model can be applied to other countries as well.

Mapping alcohol and tobacco tax policy interventions to inform health and economic impact analyses: A United Kingdom based qualitative framework analysis

BACKGROUND

Alcohol and tobacco have different policy regimes and there is little understanding of how changes to policy on each commodity might combine to affect the same outcomes or to affect people who both drink and smoke. The aim of this study was to deepen understanding of the policy objectives of UK alcohol and tobacco tax options being considered at the time of the interviews with a set of UK policy participants in 2018, and the factors affecting the implementation and outcomes of the policy options discussed.

METHODS

Ten tax policy experts were recruited from government arms-length organisations and advocacy groups in England and Scotland (4 alcohol, 4 tobacco, 2 alcohol and tobacco). Alcohol and tobacco experts were interviewed together in pairs and asked to discuss alcohol and tobacco tax policy objectives, options, and the mechanisms of effect. Interviews were semi-structured, supported by a briefing document and topic guide, audio-recorded, transcribed and then analysed deductively using framework analysis.

RESULTS

Alcohol and tobacco tax policy share objectives of health improvement and there is a common set of policy options: increasing duty rates, duty escalators, multi-rate tax structures, industry levies and the hypothecation of tax revenue for investment in societal benefits. However, participants agreed that the harms caused by alcohol and tobacco and their industries are viewed differently, and that this influences the impacts that are prioritised in tax policymaking. Working-out how alcohol and tobacco taxes could work synergistically to reduce health inequalities was seen as desirable. Participants also highlighted the importance of avoiding the combined effects of price increases on alcohol and tobacco widening economic inequalities.

CONCLUSIONS

Impact analyses should consider the combined effects of alcohol and tobacco tax policies on health and economic inequalities, and how the effects of changes to the tax on each commodity might trade-off.