Diminishing warming effects on plant phenology over time

Plant phenology, the timing of recurrent biological events, shows key and complex response to climate warming, with consequences for ecosystem functions and services. A key challenge for predicting plant phenology under future climates is to determine whether the phenological changes will persist with more intensive and long-term warming. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis of 103 experimental warming studies around the globe to investigate the responses of four phenophases - leaf-out, first flowering, last flowering, and leaf coloring. We showed that warming advanced leaf-out and flowering but delayed leaf coloring across herbaceous and woody plants. As the magnitude of warming increased, the response of most plant phenophases gradually leveled off for herbaceous plants, while phenology responded in proportion to warming in woody plants. We also found that the experimental effects of warming on plant phenology diminished over time across all phenophases. Specifically, the rate of changes in first flowering for herbaceous species, as well as leaf-out and leaf coloring for woody species, decreased as the experimental duration extended. Together, these results suggest that the real-world impact of global warming on plant phenology will diminish over time as temperatures continue to increase.

Modelling thermal reaction norms for development and viability in Drosophila suzukii under constant, fluctuating and field conditions

Phenological models for insect pests often rely on knowledge of thermal reaction norms. These may differ in shape depending on developmental thermal conditions (e.g. constant vs. fluctuating) and other factors such as life-stages. Here, we conducted an extensive comparative study of the thermal reaction norms for development and viability in the invasive fly, Drosophila suzukii, under constant and fluctuating thermal regimes. Flies, were submitted to 15 different constant temperatures (CT) ranging from 8 to 35 °C. We compared responses under CT with patterns observed under 15 different fluctuating temperature (FT) regimes. We tested several equations for thermal performance curves and compared various models to obtain thermal limits and degree-day estimations. To validate the model's predictions, the phenology was monitored in two artificial field-like conditions and two natural conditions in outdoor cages during spring and winter. Thermal reaction norm for viability from egg to pupa was broader than that from egg to adult. FT conditions yielded a broader thermal breadth for viability than CT, with a performance extended towards the colder side, consistent with our field observations in winter. Models resulting from both CT and FT conditions made accurate predictions of degree-day as long as the temperature remained within the linear part of the developmental rate curve. Under cold artificial and natural winter conditions, a model based on FT data made more accurate predictions. Model based on CT failed to predict adult's emergence in winter. We also document the first record of development and adult emergence throughout winter in D. suzukii. Population dynamics models in D. suzukii are all based on summer phenotype and CT. Accounting for variations between seasonal phenotypes, stages, and thermal conditions (CT vs. FT) could improve the predictive power of the models.

Weak evidence of provenance effects in spring phenology across Europe and North America

Forecasting the biological impacts of climate change requires understanding how species respond to warmer temperatures through interannual flexible variation vs through adaptation to local conditions. Yet, we often lack this information entirely or find conflicting evidence across studies, which is the case for spring phenology. We synthesized common garden studies across Europe and North America that reported spring event dates for a mix of angiosperm and gymnosperm tree species in the northern hemisphere, capturing data from 384 North American and 101 European provenances (i.e. populations) with observations from 1962 to 2019, alongside autumn event data when provided. Across continents, we found no evidence of provenance effects in spring phenology, but strong clines with latitude and mean annual temperature in autumn. These effects, however, appeared to diverge by continent and species type (gymnosperm vs angiosperm), with particularly pronounced clines in North America in autumn events. Our results suggest flexible, likely plastic responses, in spring phenology with warming, and potential limits - at least in the short term - due to provenance effects for autumn phenology. They also highlight that, after over 250 yr of common garden studies on tree phenology, we still lack a holistic predictive model of clines across species and phenological events.

Tracking Phenological Changes over 183 Years in Endemic Species of a Mediterranean Mountain (Sierra Nevada, SE Spain) Using Herbarium Specimens

Phenological studies have a crucial role in the global change context. The Mediterranean basin constitutes a key study site since strong climate change impacts are expected, particularly in mountain areas such as Sierra Nevada, where we focus. Specifically, we delve into phenological changes in endemic vascular plants over time by analysing data at three scales: entire massif, altitudinal ranges, and particular species, seeking to contribute to stopping biodiversity loss. For this, we analysed 5262 samples of 2129 herbarium sheets from Sierra Nevada, dated from 1837 to 2019, including reproductive structure, complete collection date, and precise location. We found a generalized advancement in phenology at all scales, and particularly in flowering onset and flowering peak. Thus, plants flower on average 11 days earlier now than before the 1970s. Although similar trends have been confirmed for many territories and species, we address plants that have been studied little in the past regarding biotypes and distribution, and which are relevant for conservation. Thus, we analysed phenological changes in endemic plants, mostly threatened, from a crucial hotspot within the Mediterranean hotspot, which is particularly vulnerable to global warming. Our results highlight the urgency of phenological studies by species and of including ecological interactions and effects on their life cycles.

Phenological Mapping of Invasive Insects: Decision Support for Surveillance and Management

Readily accessible and easily understood forecasts of the phenology of invasive insects have the potential to support and improve strategic and tactical decisions for insect surveillance and management. However, most phenological modeling tools developed to date are site-based, meaning that they use data from a weather station to produce forecasts for that single site. Spatial forecasts of phenology, or phenological maps, are more useful for decision-making at area-wide scales, such as counties, states, or entire nations. In this review, we provide a brief history on the development of phenological mapping technologies with a focus on degree-day models and their use as decision support tools for invasive insect species. We compare three different types of phenological maps and provide examples using outputs of web-based platforms that are presently available for real-time mapping of invasive insects for the contiguous United States. Next, we summarize sources of climate data available for real-time mapping, applications of phenological maps, strategies for balancing model complexity and simplicity, data sources and methods for validating spatial phenology models, and potential sources of model error and uncertainty. Lastly, we make suggestions for future research that may improve the quality and utility of phenological maps for invasive insects.

Seasonal variation in dragonfly assemblage colouration suggests a link between thermal melanism and phenology

Phenology, the seasonal timing of life events, is an essential component of diversity patterns. However, the mechanisms involved are complex and understudied. Body colour may be an important factor, because dark-bodied species absorb more solar radiation, which is predicted by the Thermal Melanism Hypothesis to enable them to thermoregulate successfully in cooler temperatures. Here we show that colour lightness of dragonfly assemblages varies in response to seasonal changes in solar radiation, with darker early- and late-season assemblages and lighter mid-season assemblages. This finding suggests a link between colour-based thermoregulation and insect phenology. We also show that the phenological pattern of dragonfly colour lightness advanced over the last decades. We suggest that changing seasonal temperature patterns due to global warming together with the static nature of solar radiation may drive dragonfly flight periods to suboptimal seasonal conditions. Our findings open a research avenue for a more mechanistic understanding of phenology and spatio-phenological impacts of climate warming on insects.

Climate-driven shifts in leaf senescence are greater for boreal species than temperate species in the Acadian Forest region in contrast to leaf emergence shifts

The Acadian Forest Region is a temperate-boreal transitional zone in eastern North America which provides a unique opportunity for understanding the potential effects of climate change on both forest types. Leaf phenology, the timing of leaf life cycle changes, is an important indicator of the biological effects of climate change, which can be observed with stationary timelapse cameras known as phenocams. Using four growing seasons of observations for the species Acer rubrum (red maple), Betula papyrifera (paper/white birch) and Abies balsamea (balsam fir) from the Acadian Phenocam Network as well as multiple growing season observations from the North American PhenoCam Network we parameterized eight leaf emergence and six leaf senescence models for each species which span a range in process and driver representation. With climate models from the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) we simulated future leaf emergence, senescence and season length (senescence minus emergence) for these species at sites within the Acadian Phenocam Network. Model performances were similar across models and leaf emergence model RMSE ranged from about 1 to 2 weeks across species and models, while leaf senescence model RMSE ranged from about 2 to 4 weeks. The simulations suggest that by the late 21st century, leaf senescence may become continuously delayed for boreal species like Betula papyrifera and Abies balsamea, though remain relatively stable for temperate species like Acer rubrum. In contrast, the projected advancement in leaf emergence was similar across boreal and temperate species. This has important implications for carbon uptake, nutrient resorption, ecology and ecotourism for the Acadian Forest Region. More work is needed to improve predictions of leaf phenology for the Acadian Forest Region, especially with respect to senescence. Phenocams have the potential to rapidly advance process-based model development and predictions of leaf phenology in the context of climate change.

Citizen science data reveal regional heterogeneity in phenological response to climate in the large milkweed bug, Oncopeltus fasciatus

Regional populations of geographically widespread species may respond to different environmental factors across the species' range, generating divergent effects of climate change on life-history phenology. Using thousands of citizen science observations extracted from iNaturalist and associated with corresponding temperature, precipitation, elevation, and daylength information, we examined the drivers of adult mating and of nymphal phenology, development, and group size for populations of the large milkweed bug, Oncopeltus fasciatus, in different ecoregions. Research-grade iNaturalist images were correctly identified 98.3% of the time and yielded more than 3000 observations of nymphal groups and 1000 observations of mating adults spanning 18 years. Mating phenology showed distinct regional patterns, ranging from year-round mating in California to temporally restricted mating in the Great Lakes Northeastern Coast ecoregion. Relative temperature increases of 1°C for a given daylength expanded the mating season by more than a week in western ecoregions. While increases in relative temperature delayed mating phenology in all ecoregions, greater winter precipitation advanced mating in the California ecoregion. In the eastern ecoregions, nymphal phenology was delayed by increases in summer rainfall but was advanced by relative temperature increases, whereas in western regions, relative temperature increases delayed nymphal phenology. Furthermore, accumulated growing degree days (AGDD) was a poor predictor of developmental progression, as we found a positive but weak correlation between AGDD and age structure only for the Appalachian Southeast North America and the Great Lakes Northern Coast ecoregions. These complex phenological responses of O. fasciatus are just one example of how populations may be differentially susceptible to a diversity of climatic effects; using data across a species' whole distribution is critical for exposing regional variations, especially for species with large, continental-scale ranges. This study demonstrates the potential of photodocumented biodiversity data to aid in the monitoring of life history, host plant-insect interactions, and climate responsiveness.

A molecular phenology scale of grape berry development

Fruit growth and development consist of a continuous succession of physical, biochemical, and physiological changes driven by a genetic program that dynamically responds to environmental cues. Establishing recognizable stages over the whole fruit lifetime represents a fundamental requirement for research and fruit crop cultivation. This is especially relevant in perennial crops like grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) to scale the development of its fruit across genotypes and growing conditions. In this work, molecular-based information from several grape berry transcriptomic datasets was exploited to build a molecular phenology scale (MPhS) and to map the ontogenic development of the fruit. The proposed statistical pipeline consisted of an unsupervised learning procedure yielding an innovative combination of semiparametric, smoothing, and dimensionality reduction tools. The transcriptomic distance between fruit samples was precisely quantified by means of the MPhS that also enabled to highlight the complex dynamics of the transcriptional program over berry development through the calculation of the rate of variation of MPhS stages by time. The MPhS allowed the alignment of time-series fruit samples proving to be a complementary method for mapping the progression of grape berry development with higher detail compared to classic time- or phenotype-based approaches.

Temperature sensitivity of leaf flushing in 12 common woody species in eastern China

Leaf phenology is one of the most reliable indicators of global warming in temperate regions because it is highly sensitive to temperatures. Temperature sensitivity (S_T) is defined as the values of changed days of leaf flushing date (LUD) per degree increase in temperatures. Climate warming substantially advanced LUD in the temperate region, but its effect on S_T of LUD is still not clear. We used spring phenological records of 12 woody plants in eastern China in the years of 1983-2014 to explore temporal and spatial changes of LUD and S_T. Furthermore, we compared the difference of S_T and preseason temperatures in two periods (1983-1997 and 2000-2014), and explored the main factors regulating S_T. The results showed that the average LUD significantly advanced (-2.7 days per decade). The mean LUD over the period 1983-2014 was in day of the year (DOY) 87 ± 7 across sites and species for the early leaf flushing species (EFS), and mean DOY 102 ± 5 for the late leaf flushing species (LFS). LUD was earlier in low latitude than that in high latitude. S_T of Armeniaca vulgaris was the most sensitive to temperature across all sites (-3.66 d °C^-1), while Firmiana simplex was the most insensitive (-2.37 d °C^-1). LUD of EFS was more sensitive to temperature warming than that of LFS. At the same site, LUD of EFS would advance more obviously than that of LFS under global warming. For all species, S_T decreased significantly with shorter preseason length and warmer temperatures at the preseason end. Our results had demonstrated a strong relationship between S_T and the preseason length (mean temperature at the preseason end).

Environmental Drivers of Amphibian Breeding Phenology across Multiple Sites

A mechanistic understanding of phenology, the seasonal timing of life history events, is important for understanding species’ interactions and the potential responses of ecological communities to a rapidly changing climate. We present analysis of a seven-year dataset on the breeding phenology of wood frogs (Rana sylvatica), tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum), blue-spotted salamanders (Ambystoma laterale), and associated unisexual Ambystoma salamanders from six wetlands in Southeast Michigan, USA. We assess whether the ordinal date of breeding migrations varies among species, sexes, and individual wetlands, and we describe the specific environmental conditions associated with breeding migrations for each species/sex. Breeding date was significantly affected by species/sex identity, year, wetland, and the interactions between species/sex and year as well as wetland and year. There was a great deal of variation among years, with breeding occurring nearly synchronously among groups in some years but widely spaced between groups in other years. Specific environmental triggers for movement varied for each species and sex and changed as the breeding season progressed. In general, salamanders responded to longer temperature lags (more warmer days in a row) than wood frogs, whereas wood frogs required longer precipitation lags (more rainy days in a row) than salamanders. Wood frogs were more likely to migrate around the time of a new moon, whereas in contrast, Ambystoma salamander migration was not associated with a moon phase. Ordinal day was an important factor in all models, suggesting that these amphibians require a latency period or similar mechanism to avoid breeding too early in the year, even when weather conditions appear favorable. Male wood frogs migrated earlier than female wood frogs, and male blue-spotted salamanders migrated earlier than female A. laterale and associated unisexual females. Larger unisexual salamanders migrated earlier than smaller individuals. Differences in species’ responses to environmental cues led to wood frogs and A. laterale breeding later than tiger salamanders in colder years but not in warmer years. This suggests that, as the climate warms, wood frog and A. laterale larvae may experience less predation from tiger salamander larvae due to reduced size differences when they breed simultaneously. Our study is one of few to describe the proximate drivers of amphibian breeding migrations across multiple species, wetlands, and years, and it can inform models predicting how climate change may shift ecological interactions among pond-breeding amphibian species.

Wildflower phenological escape differs by continent and spring temperature

Temperate understory plant species are at risk from climate change and anthropogenic threats that include increased deer herbivory, habitat loss, pollinator declines and mismatch, and nutrient pollution. Recent work suggests that spring ephemeral wildflowers may be at additional risk due to phenological mismatch with deciduous canopy trees. The study of this dynamic, commonly referred to as "phenological escape", and its sensitivity to spring temperature is limited to eastern North America. Here, we use herbarium specimens to show that phenological sensitivity to spring temperature is remarkably conserved for understory wildflowers across North America, Europe, and Asia, but that canopy trees in North America are significantly more sensitive to spring temperature compared to in Asia and Europe. We predict that advancing tree phenology will lead to decreasing spring light windows in North America while spring light windows will be maintained or even increase in Asia and Europe in response to projected climate warming.

Modeling the effect of adaptation to future climate change on spring phenological trend of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.)

Temperate trees could cope with climate change through phenotypic plasticity of phenological key events or adaptation in situ via selection on genetic variation. However, the relative contribution of local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity to phenological change is unclear for many ecologically important tree species. Here, we analyzed the leaf-out data of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) from 50 provenances planted in 7 trial sites. We first constructed a function between chilling accumulation (CA) and photoperiod-associated heat requirement (PHR) of leaf-out date for each provenance and quantified the relationship between parameters of the CA-PHR function and climatic variables at provenance origins by using the random forest model. Furthermore, we used the provenance-specific CA-PHR function to simulate future leaf-out dates under two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and two assumptions (no adaptation and adaptation). The results showed that both CA, provenance, and their interactions affected the PHR of leaf-out. The provenances from southeastern Europe exhibited a stronger response of PHR to CA and thus flushed earlier than northwestern provenances. The parameters of the CA-PHR function were connected with climatic variables (e.g., mean diurnal temperature range, temperature seasonality) at the originating sites of each provenance. If only considering the phenotypic plasticity, the leaf-out date of European beech in 2070-2099 will advance by 6.8 and 9.0 days on average relative to 1951-2020 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. However, if F. sylvatica adapts to future climate change by adopting the current strategy, the advance of the leaf-out date will weaken by 1.4 and 3.4 days under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Our results suggest that the European beech could slow down its spring phenological advances and reduce its spring frost risk if it adopts the current strategy to adapt to future climate change.

Integrating experiments to predict interactive cue effects on spring phenology with warming

Climate change has advanced plant phenology globally 4-6 d °C^-1 on average. Such shifts are some of the most reported and predictable biological impacts of rising temperatures. Yet as climate change has marched on, phenological shifts have appeared muted over recent decades - failing to match simple predictions of an advancing spring with continued warming. The main hypothesis for these changing trends is that interactions between spring phenological cues - long-documented in laboratory environments - are playing a greater role in natural environments due to climate change. Here, we argue that accurately linking shifts observed in long-term data to underlying phenological cues is slowed by biases in observational studies and limited integration of insights from laboratory studies. We synthesize seven decades of laboratory experiments to quantify how phenological cue-space has been studied and how treatments compare with shifts caused by climate change. Most studies focus on one cue, limiting our ability to make accurate predictions, but some well-studied forest species offer opportunities to advance forecasting. We outline how greater integration of controlled-environment studies with long-term data could drive a new generation of laboratory experiments, built on physiological insights, that would transform our fundamental understanding of phenology and improve predictions.

Temperature-dependent Development, Survival, and Oviposition of Laricobius osakensis (Coleoptera: Derodontidae): A Specialist Predator of Adelges tsugae (Hemiptera: Adelgidae)

A predator, Laricobius osakensis Montgomery and Shiyake (Coleoptera: Derodontidae), is being mass-produced and released for the biological control of the invasive hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA), Adelges tsugae Annand (Hemiptera: Adelgidae). To better understand and predict the seasonality of this predator in North America, the development and reproduction of L. osakensis were evaluated at constant temperatures ranging from 5 to 22°C. The predicted seasonal biology was compared with data from field collections. L. osakensis did not complete development from egg to adult at the two lowest temperatures tested, 5 and 8°C, but did so at the highest temperature of 22°C. The minimum development thresholds were estimated for eggs (4.2°C), first (1.8°C), second (5.5°C), third (4.6°C), and fourth instar (4.1°C), prepupa (3.6°C), and pupa (7.5°C). Oviposition rates were significantly greater at 5 and 10°C than at 20 and 25°C. Head capsule width significantly increased for each of the four larval instars with a mean of 0.19, 0.26, 0.35, and 0.44 mm, respectively. Laboratory and field data were used to develop a phenology forecasting model to predict the occurrence of all developmental stages of L. osakensis. This model will allow land managers to more accurately predict the optimal timing for L. osakensis larval sampling throughout its established range.

Species differences in the green-up date of typical vegetation in Inner Mongolia and climate-driven mechanism based on process-based phenology models

Different species within the same community may exhibit distinct phenological responses to climate change, so it is necessary to study species differences in the green-up date among abundant species within a wide area, and a suitable phenology model should be introduced to explain the associated climate-driven mechanism. Although various models have been developed, very few studies have aimed to compare their efficiency and robustness, and the relative contributions of climate driving factors have not been sufficiently examined. We analyzed phenology data for 12 species across 17 stations in Inner Mongolia and found that essential spatiotemporal and interspecies differences existed in the green-up date. Five process-based models were established for each species and their performance was comprehensively evaluated. The two-phase models (sequential model, parallel model, unified model and unified model combined with precipitation driving) generally performed better than the one-phase model (thermal time model), and the model considering precipitation performed the best, which indicates that it is necessary to introduce the chilling effect and precipitation driving effect to improve the model accuracy in arid environments. We proposed a method to estimate the contribution rates of various climate driving factors, and significant differences in the relative demand for the various climate driving factors among different species were clearly revealed. The results indicated that for natural vegetation in Inner Mongolia, the need for the chilling and temperature driving is relatively high, and the precipitation driving is very important for herbaceous vegetation, which leads to considerable spatial and interspecies differences in green-up date. We demonstrated the feasibility of quantitatively evaluating the contributions of different climate driving factors with a process-based model, and the contradiction in phenological changes among different studies may eventually be clarified.

Climate change effects on bread wheat phenology and grain quality: A case study in the north of Italy

Increasing temperatures, heat waves, and reduction of annual precipitation are all the expressions of climate change (CC), strongly affecting bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) grain yield in Southern Europe. Being temperature the major driving force of plants' phenological development, these variations also have effects on wheat phenology, with possible consequences on grain quality, and gluten protein accumulation. Here, through a case study in the Bolognese Plain (North of Italy), we assessed the effects of CC in the area, the impacts on bread wheat phenological development, and the consequences on grain gluten quality. The increasing trend in mean annual air temperature in the area since 1952 was significant, with a breakpoint identified in 1989, rising from 12.7 to 14.1°C, accompanied by the signals of increasing aridity, i.e., increase in water table depth. Bread wheat phenological development was compared in two 15-year periods before and after the breakpoint, i.e., 1952-1966 (past period), and 2006-2020 (present period), the latest characterized by aridity and increased temperatures. A significant shortening of the chronological time necessary to reach the main phenological phases was observed for the present period compared to the past period, finally shortening the whole life cycle. This reduction, as well as the higher temperature regime, affected gluten accumulation during the grain-filling process, as emerged analyzing gluten composition in grain samples of the same variety harvested in the area both before and after the breakpoint in temperature. In particular, the proportion of gluten polymers (i.e., gliadins, high and low molecular weight glutenins, and their ratio) showed a strong and significant correlation with cumulative growing degree days (CGDDs) accumulated during the grain filling. Higher CGDD values during the period, typical of CC in Southern Europe, accounting for higher temperature and faster grain filling, correlated with gliadins, high molecular weight glutenins, and their proportion with low molecular weight glutenins. In summary, herein reported, data might contribute to assessing the effects of CC on wheat phenology and quality, representing a tool for both predictive purposes and decision supporting systems for farmers, as well as can guide future breeding choices for varietal innovation.

To Every Thing There Is a Season: Phenology and Photoperiodic Control of Seasonal Development in the Invasive Caucasian Population of the Brown Marmorated Stink Bug, Halyomorpha halys (Hemiptera: Heteroptera: Pentatomidae)

Studies on the phenology of local populations of invasive insects are necessary for monitoring and predicting their dispersion. We investigated the phenology of the brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys, in the Sochi region (Krasnodar Territory, Russia) from 2018 to 2021 by regular field sampling and dissecting. The results of the sampling suggest that H. halys is at least partially bivoltine in the studied region: the main period of mass oviposition (by the overwintered females) occurs from June to July; the second, much shorter period of egg-laying (by females of the new, i.e., the first generation) occurs in August. Reproductively active individuals (i.e., females with developed ovaries and filled spermatheca and males with filled ectodermal sac) were recorded from the end of May to the beginning of September. Such a seasonal pattern correlated with day length: when the natural photoperiod decreased below the experimentally determined critical day length (15.0−15.5 h), the proportions of females with fully developed ovaries sharply dropped to zero. Both the rate of H. halys pre-adult development and the timing of the induction of winter adult diapause observed under natural conditions fully agreed with the earlier predictions that had been based on the results of laboratory experiments.

Quantifying phenological diversity: a framework based on Hill numbers theory

Background

Despite the great concern triggered by the environmental crisis worldwide, the loss of temporal key functions and processes involved in biodiversity maintenance has received little attention. Species are restricted in their life cycles by environmental variables because of their physiological and behavioral properties; thus, the timing and duration of species' presence and their activities vary greatly between species within a community. Despite the ecological relevance of such variation, there is currently no measure that summarizes the key temporal aspects of biological diversity and allows comparisons of community phenological patterns. Here, we propose a measure that synthesizes variability of phenological patterns using the Hill numbers-based attribute diversity framework.

Methods

We constructed a new phenological diversity measure based on the aforementioned framework through pairwise overlapping distances, which was supplemented with wavelet analysis. The Hill numbers approach was chosen as an adequate way to define a set of diversity values of different order q, a parameter that determines the sensitivity of the diversity measure to abundance. Wavelet transform analysis was used to model continuous variables from incomplete data sets for different phenophases. The new measure, which we call Phenological Hill numbers (PD), considers the decouplings of phenophases through an overlapping area value between pairs of species within the community. PD was first tested through simulations with varying overlap in phenophase magnitude and intensity and varying number of species, and then by using one real data set.

Results

PD maintains the diversity patterns of order q as in any other diversity measure encompassed by the Hill numbers framework. Minimum PD values in the simulated data sets reflect a lack of differentiation in the phenological curves of the community over time; by contrast, the maximum PD values reflected the most diverse simulations in which phenological curves were equally distributed over time. PD values were consistent with the homogeneous distribution of the intensity and concurrence of phenophases over time, both in the simulated and the real data set.

Discussion

PD provides an efficient, readily interpretable and comparable measure that summarizes the variety of phenological patterns observed in ecological communities. PD retains the diversity patterns of order q characteristic of all diversity measures encompassed by the distance-based Hill numbers framework. In addition, wavelet transform analysis proved useful for constructing a continuous phenological curve. This methodological approach to quantify phenological diversity produces simple and intuitive values for the examination of phenological diversity and can be widely applied to any taxon or community's phenological traits.

Understorey light quality affects leaf pigments and leaf phenology in different plant functional types

Forest understorey plants receive most sunlight in springtime before canopy closure, and in autumn following leaf-fall. We hypothesised that plant species must adjust their phenological and photoprotective strategies in response to large changes in the spectral composition of the sunlight they receive. Here, we identified how plant species growing in northern deciduous and evergreen forest understoreys differ in their response to blue light and ultraviolet (UV) radiation according to their functional strategy. We installed filters in a forest understorey in southern Finland, to create the following treatments attenuating: UV radiation below 350 nm, all UV radiation (< 400 nm), all blue light and UV radiation (< 500 nm), and a transparent control. In eight species, representing different functional strategies, we assessed leaf optical properties, phenology, and epidermal flavonoid contents over two years. Blue light accelerated leaf senescence in all species measured in the understorey, apart from Quercus robur seedlings, whereas UV radiation only accelerated leaf senescence in Acer platanoides seedlings. More light-demanding species accumulated flavonols in response to seasonal changes in light quality compared to shade-tolerant and wintergreen species and were particularly responsive to blue light. Reduction of blue and UV radiation under shade reveals an important role for microclimatic effects on autumn phenology and leaf photoprotection. An extension of canopy cover under climate change, and its associated suppression of understorey blue light and UV radiation, may delay leaf senescence for understorey species with an autumn niche.

Is winter coming? Minor effect of the onset of chilling accumulation on the prediction of endodormancy release and budbreak

The buds of perennial plants become dormant in autumn and must integrate the information related to chilling and forcing temperatures to resume their growth in spring. In many studies, the initial date for chilling accumulation (D_CA ) is set arbitrarily using various rules resulting in high variability across studies and sites. To test the relevancy of different rules to set D_CA , sequential models (taking into account or not the negative effect of warm temperature) were optimized by minimizing the sums of squares between observed and predicted values for 34 endodormancy release and 77 budbreak dates for the walnut Juglans regia L. cv Franquette across France. Optimization of these different models highlighted that many of the D_CA rules, incorporating a photoperiod signal on endodormancy induction, were effective (predicted root mean square standard error less than 10 and 8 days for endodormancy onset and bud break, respectively). Furthermore, the use of functions that compute negative chilling accumulation did not improve the performance of the models. Among the different rules, the projections of the best models were explored under different climates (current climate and Representative Concentration Pathways RCP scenarios). The projections revealed a tipping point at a mean annual temperature between 13 and 15°C, beyond which the advance in ontogenic development during ecodormancy does not compensate for the delay in endodormancy release. Although the physiological mechanisms driving the onset of endodormancy may be profoundly altered by global change, they appear to have minimal impact on the way current models predict dormancy and budbreak dates in walnut.

Mosaics of climatic stress across species' ranges: tradeoffs cause adaptive evolution to limits of climatic tolerance

Studies in birds and trees show climatic stresses distributed across species' ranges, not only at range limits. Here, new analyses from the butterfly Euphydryas editha reveal mechanisms generating these stresses: geographic mosaics of natural selection, acting on tradeoffs between climate adaptation and fitness traits, cause some range-central populations to evolve to limits of climatic tolerance, while others remain resilient. In one ecotype, selection for predator avoidance drives evolution to limits of thermal tolerance. In a second ecotype, the endangered Bay Checkerspot, selection on fecundity drives evolution to the climate-sensitive limit of ability to complete development within the lifespans of ephemeral hosts, causing routinely high mortality from insect-host phenological asynchrony. The tradeoff between maternal fecundity and offspring mortality generated similar values of fitness on different dates, partly explaining why fecundity varied by more than an order of magnitude. Evolutionary response to the tradeoff rendered climatic variability the main driver of Bay Checkerspot dynamics, and increases in this variability, associated with climate change, were a key factor behind permanent extinction of a protected metapopulation. Finally, we discuss implications for conservation planning of our finding that adaptive evolution can reduce population-level resilience to climate change and generate geographic mosaics of climatic stress. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)'.

Spatial Difference between Temperature and Snowfall Driven Spring Phenology of Alpine Grassland Land Surface Based on Process-Based Modeling on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

As a sensitive indicator for climate change, the spring phenology of alpine grassland on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) has received extensive concern over past decade. It has been demonstrated that temperature and precipitation/snowfall play an important role in driving the green-up in alpine grassland. However, the spatial differences in the temperature and snowfall driven mechanism of alpine grassland green-up onset are still not clear. This manuscript establishes a set of process-based models to investigate the climate variables driving spring phenology and their spatial differences. Specifically, using 500 m three-day composite MODIS NDVI datasets from 2000 to 2015, we first estimated the land surface green-up onset (LSGO) of alpine grassland in the QTP. Further, combining with daily air temperature and precipitation datasets from 2000 to 2015, we built up process-based models for LSGO in 86 meteorological stations in the QTP. The optimum models of the stations separating climate drivers spatially suggest that LSGO in grassland is: (1) controlled by temperature in the north, west and south of the QTP, where the precipitation during late winter and spring is less than 20 mm; (2) driven by the combination of temperature and precipitation in the middle, east and southwest regions with higher precipitation and (3) more likely controlled by both temperature and precipitation in snowfall dominant regions, since the snow-melting process has negative effects on the air temperature. The result dictates that snowfall and rainfall should be concerned separately in the improvement of the spring phenology model of the alpine grassland ecosystem.

Modeling Temperature-Dependent Development Rate in Insects and Implications of Experimental Design

Characterizing the temperature-dependent development rate requires empirical data acquired by rearing individuals at different temperatures. Many mathematical models can be fitted to empirical data, making model comparison a mandatory step, yet model selection practices widely vary. We present guidelines for model selection using statistical criteria and the assessment of biological relevance of fits, exemplified throughout a Lepidoptera pest dataset. We also used in silico experiments to explore how experimental design and species attributes impact estimation accuracy of biological traits. Our results suggested that the uncertainty in model predictions was mostly determined by the rearing effort and the variance in development times of individuals. We found that a higher number of tested temperatures instead of a higher sample size per temperature may lead to more accurate estimations of model parameters. Our simulations suggested that an inappropriate model choice can lead to biased estimated values of biological traits (defined as attributes of temperature dependent development rate, i.e., optimal temperature for development and critical thresholds), highlighting the need for standardized model selection methods. Therefore, our results have direct implications for future studies on the temperature-dependent development rate of insects.

A Mechanistic Framework for Understanding the Effects of Climate Change on the Link Between Flowering and Fruiting Phenology

Phenological shifts are a widely studied consequence of climate change. Little is known, however, about certain critical phenological events, nor about mechanistic links between shifts in different life-history stages of the same organism. Among angiosperms, flowering times have been observed to advance with climate change, but, whether fruiting times shift as a direct consequence of shifting flowering times, or respond differently or not at all to climate change, is poorly understood. Yet, shifts in fruiting could alter species interactions, including by disrupting seed dispersal mutualisms. In the absence of long-term data on fruiting phenology, but given extensive data on flowering, we argue that an understanding of whether flowering and fruiting are tightly linked or respond independently to environmental change can significantly advance our understanding of how fruiting phenologies will respond to warming climates. Through a case study of biotically and abiotically dispersed plants, we present evidence for a potential functional link between the timing of flowering and fruiting. We then propose general mechanisms for how flowering and fruiting life history stages could be functionally linked or independently driven by external factors, and we use our case study species and phenological responses to distinguish among proposed mechanisms in a real-world framework. Finally, we identify research directions that could elucidate which of these mechanisms drive the timing between subsequent life stages. Understanding how fruiting phenology is altered by climate change is essential for all plant species but is particularly critical to sustaining the large numbers of plant species that rely on animal-mediated dispersal, as well as the animals that rely on fruit for sustenance.

Variation in seasonal timing traits and life history along a latitudinal transect in Mimulus ringens

Seasonal timing traits are commonly under recurrent, spatially variable selection, and are therefore predicted to exhibit clinal variation. Temperate perennial plants often require vernalization to prompt growth and reproduction; however, little is known about whether vernalization requirements change across the range of a broadly distributed species. We performed a critical vernalization duration study in Mimulus ringens, coupled with population genomic analysis. Plants from eight populations spanning the latitudinal range were exposed to varying durations of 4°C vernalization between 0 and 56 days, and flowering response was assessed. RADSeq was also performed to generate 1179 polymorphic SNPs, which were used to examine population structure. We found unexpected life history variation, with some populations lacking vernalization requirement. Population genomic analyses show that these life history variants are highly divergent from perennials, potentially revealing a cryptic species. For perennial populations, minimum vernalization time was surprisingly consistent. However, once vernalized, northern populations flowered almost 3 weeks faster than southern. Furthermore, southern populations exhibited sensitivity to vernalization times beyond flowering competency, suggesting an ability to respond adaptively to different lengths of winter. Mimulus ringens, therefore, reveals evidence of clinal variation, and provides opportunities for future studies addressing mechanistic and ecological hypotheses both within and between incipient species.

Genetic Consequences of Biologically Altered Environments

Evolvable traits of organisms can alter the environment those organisms experience. While it is well appreciated that those modified environments can influence natural selection to which organisms are exposed, they can also influence the expression of genetic variances and covariances of traits under selection. When genetic variance and covariance change in response to changes in the evolving, modified environment, rates and outcomes of evolution also change. Here we discuss the basic mechanisms whereby organisms modify their environments, review how those modified environments have been shown to alter genetic variance and covariance, and discuss potential evolutionary consequences of such dynamics. With these dynamics, responses to selection can be more rapid and sustained, leading to more extreme phenotypes, or they can be slower and truncated, leading to more conserved phenotypes. Patterns of correlated selection can also change, leading to greater or less evolutionary independence of traits, or even causing convergence or divergence of traits, even when selection on them is consistent across environments. Developing evolutionary models that incorporate changes in genetic variances and covariances when environments themselves evolve requires developing methods to predict how genetic parameters respond to environments-frequently multifactorial environments. It also requires a population-level analysis of how traits of collections of individuals modify environments for themselves and/or others in a population, possibly in spatially explicit ways. Despite the challenges of elucidating the mechanisms and nuances of these processes, even qualitative predictions of how environment-modifying traits alter evolutionary potential are likely to improve projections of evolutionary outcomes.

Satellite-derived NDVI underestimates the advancement of alpine vegetation growth over the past three decades

Satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data are increasingly relied on to reveal the growth responses of vegetation to climate change, yet the vegetation growth tracking accuracy of these data remains unclear due to a lack of long-term field data. Here, we adopted a unique field-measured seasonal aboveground biomass dataset from 1982-2014 to assess the potential of using satellite-derived NDVI data to match field data in regard to the interannual variability in seasonal vegetation growth in a Tibetan alpine grassland. We revealed that Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS) NDVI data captured the advancement of field-measured vegetation growth throughout the entire study period but not from 2000-2014, while MODIS NDVI data still observed this advancing trend after 2000 to a limited extent. However, satellite-derived NDVI data consistently underestimated the advancement degree of field-measured vegetation growth, regardless of whether GIMMS or MODIS NDVI data were considered. We tentatively attribute this underestimation to an increased ratio of grass biomass to forb biomass, which could delay the advancement of NDVI development but not affect that of field-measured biomass development. Our results suggest that satellite-derived NDVI data may miss critical responses of vegetation growth to global climate change, potentially due to long-term shifts in plant community composition.

How phenological tracking shapes species and communities in non-stationary environments

Climate change alters the environments of all species. Predicting species responses requires understanding how species track environmental change, and how such tracking shapes communities. Growing empirical evidence suggests that how species track phenologically - how an organism shifts the timing of major biological events in response to the environment - is linked to species performance and community structure. Such research tantalizingly suggests a potential framework to predict the winners and losers of climate change, and the future communities we can expect. But developing this framework requires far greater efforts to ground empirical studies of phenological tracking in relevant ecological theory. Here we review the concept of phenological tracking in empirical studies and through the lens of coexistence theory to show why a community-level perspective is critical to accurate predictions with climate change. While much current theory for tracking ignores the importance of a multi-species context, basic community assembly theory predicts that competition will drive variation in tracking and trade-offs with other traits. We highlight how existing community assembly theory can help understand tracking in stationary and non-stationary systems. But major advances in predicting the species- and community-level consequences of climate change will require advances in theoretical and empirical studies. We outline a path forward built on greater efforts to integrate priority effects into modern coexistence theory, improved empirical estimates of multivariate environmental change, and clearly defined estimates of phenological tracking and its underlying environmental cues.

Spring understory herbs flower later in intensively managed forests

Many organisms respond to anthropogenic environmental change through shifts in their phenology. In plants, flowering is largely driven by temperature, and therefore affected by climate change. However, on smaller scales climatic conditions are also influenced by other factors, including habitat structure. A group of plants with a particularly distinct phenology are the understory herbs in temperate European forests. In these forests, management alters tree species composition (often replacing deciduous with coniferous species) and homogenizes stand structure, and as a consequence changes light conditions and microclimate. Forest management should thus also affect the phenology of understory herbs. To test this, we recorded the flowering phenology of 16 early-flowering herbs on 100 forest plots varying in management intensity, from near-natural to intensely managed forests, in central and southern Germany. We found that in forest stands with a high management intensity, such as Norway spruce plantations, the plants flowered on average about 2 weeks later than in unmanaged forests. This was largely because management also affected microclimate (e.g., spring temperatures of 5.9°C in managed coniferous, 6.7 in managed deciduous, and 7.0°C in unmanaged deciduous plots), which in turn affected phenology, with plants flowering later on colder and moister forest stands (+4.5 d per -1°C and 2.7 d per 10% humidity increase). Among forest characteristics, the percentage of conifers had the greatest influence on microclimate, but also the age, overall crown projection area, structural complexity and spatial distribution of the forest stands. Our study indicates that forest management alters plant phenology, with potential far-reaching consequences for the ecology and evolution of understorey communities. More generally, our study demonstrates that besides climate change other drivers of environmental change, too, can influence the phenology of organisms.

A hundred years after: endodormancy and the chilling requirement in subtropical trees

Endodormancy and the related chilling requirement synchronize the seasonal development of trees from the boreal and temperate regions under the climatic conditions prevailing at their native growing sites. The phenomenon of endodormancy has been known at the whole-plant level for 100 years, and in the last couple of decades, insights into the physiological and molecular basis of endodormancy and its release have also been obtained. Intriguingly, recent studies have shown experimentally that subtropical trees also show endodormancy and a chilling requirement. Motivated by the climatic differences between the subtropical and more northern zones, here we address the similarities and differences in endodormancy between trees growing in the subtropical zone and those growing in more northern zones.

The Effect of Diet Interacting With Temperature on the Development Rate of a Noctuidae Quinoa Pest

The quinoa pest Copitarsia incommoda (Walker, Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is a cause of significant damage, and it is thus critical for Andean countries to have access to phenological models to maintain production and food safety. These models are key components in pest control strategies in the context of global warming and in the development of sustainable production integrating agroecological concepts. Phenological models are mainly based on outlining the relationship between temperature and development rate. In this study, we investigated the combined effect of protein content within the diet (artificial diet; artificial diet with -20% protein; artificial diet with +20% protein; natural quinoa diet) and temperature (12, 16.9, 19.5, 22.7, 24.6°C) as drivers of the development rate. Our study supports the literature, since temperature was found to be the main driver of the development rate. It highlights the significant role played by protein content and its interaction with temperature (significant effects of temperature, diet, and diet:temperature on development time using GLMs for all foraging life stages). We discuss the implications of such drivers of the development rate for implementing and applying phenological models that may benefit from including factors other than temperature. While performance curves such as development rate curves obtained from laboratory experiments are still a useful basis for phenological development, we also discuss the need to take into account the heterogeneity of the insect response to environmental factors. This is critical if pest control practices are to be deployed at the optimal time.

Climate-Aware and IoT-Enabled Selection of the Most Suitable Stone Fruit Tree Variety

The application of new technologies such as the Internet of Things offers the opportunity to improve current agricultural development, facilitate daily tasks, and turn farms into efficient and sustainable production systems. The use of these new technologies enables the digital transformation process demanded by the sector and provides agricultural collectives with more optimized analysis and prediction tools. Due to climate change, one of the farm industry’s problems is the advance or decay in the cycle of stone fruit trees. The objective is to recommend whether a specific area meets the minimum climatic requirements for planting certain stone fruit trees based on climatic data and bioclimatic indicators. The methodology used implements a large amount of meteorological data to generate information on specific climatic conditions and interactions on crops. In this work, a pilot study has been carried out in the Region of Murcia using an IoT platform. We simulate scenarios for the development of stone fruit varieties better adapted to the environment. Based on the standard, open interfaces, and protocols, the platform integrates heterogeneous information sources and interoperability with other third-party solutions to exchange and exploit such information.

Phenological sensitivity to temperature mediates herbivory

Species interactions drive ecosystem processes and are a major focus of global change research. Among the most consequential interactions expected to shift with climate change are those between insect herbivores and plants, both of which are highly sensitive to temperature. Insect herbivores and their host plants display varying levels of synchrony that could be disrupted or enhanced by climate change, yet empirical data on changes in synchrony are lacking. Using evidence of herbivory on herbarium specimens collected from the northeastern United States and France from 1900 to 2015, we provide evidence that plant species with temperature-sensitive phenologies experience higher levels of insect damage in warmer years, while less temperature-sensitive, co-occurring species do not. While herbivory might be mediated by interactions between warming and phenology through multiple pathways, we suggest that warming might lengthen growing seasons for phenologically sensitive plant species, exposing their leaves to herbivores for longer periods of time in warm years. We propose that elevated herbivory in warm years may represent a previously underappreciated cost to phenological tracking of climate change over longer timescales.

Temperate Fruit Trees under Climate Change: Challenges for Dormancy and Chilling Requirements in Warm Winter Regions

Adequate chill is of great importance for successful production of deciduous fruit trees. However, temperate fruit trees grown under tropical and subtropical regions may face insufficient winter chill, which has a crucial role in dormancy and productivity. The objective of this review is to discuss the challenges for dormancy and chilling requirements of temperate fruit trees, especially in warm winter regions, under climate change conditions. After defining climate change and dormancy, the effects of climate change on various parameters of temperate fruit trees are described. Then, dormancy breaking chemicals and organic compounds, as well as some aspects of the mechanism of dormancy breaking, are demonstrated. After this, the relationships between dormancy and chilling requirements are delineated and challenging aspects of chilling requirements in climate change conditions and in warm winter environments are demonstrated. Experts have sought to develop models for estimating chilling requirements and dormancy breaking in order to improve the adaption of temperate fruit trees under tropical and subtropical environments. Some of these models and their uses are described in the final section of this review. In conclusion, global warming has led to chill deficit during winter, which may become a limiting factor in the near future for the growth of temperate fruit trees in the tropics and subtropics. With the increasing rate of climate change, improvements in some managing tools (e.g., discovering new, more effective dormancy breaking organic compounds; breeding new, climate-smart cultivars in order to solve problems associated with dormancy and chilling requirements; and improving dormancy and chilling forecasting models) have the potential to solve the challenges of dormancy and chilling requirements for temperate fruit tree production in warm winter fruit tree growing regions.

Fine tuning of hormonal signaling is linked to dormancy status in sweet cherry flower buds

In temperate trees, optimal timing and quality of flowering directly depend on adequate winter dormancy progression, regulated by a combination of chilling and warm temperatures. Physiological, genetic and functional genomic studies have shown that hormones play a key role in bud dormancy establishment, maintenance and release. We combined physiological and transcriptional analyses, quantification of abscisic acid (ABA) and gibberellins (GAs), and modeling to further investigate how these signaling pathways are associated with dormancy progression in the flower buds of two sweet cherry cultivars. Our results demonstrated that GA-associated pathways have distinct functions and may be differentially related with dormancy. In addition, ABA levels rise at the onset of dormancy, associated with enhanced expression of ABA biosynthesis PavNCED genes, and decreased prior to dormancy release. Following the observations that ABA levels are correlated with dormancy depth, we identified PavUG71B6, a sweet cherry UDP-GLYCOSYLTRANSFERASE gene that up-regulates active catabolism of ABA to ABA glucosyl ester (ABA-GE) and may be associated with low ABA content in the early cultivar. Subsequently, we modeled ABA content and dormancy behavior in three cultivars based on the expression of a small set of genes regulating ABA levels. These results strongly suggest the central role of ABA pathway in the control of dormancy progression and open up new perspectives for the development of molecular-based phenological modeling.

Diverging models introduce large uncertainty in future climate warming impact on spring phenology of temperate deciduous trees

Spring phenology influences terrestrial ecosystem carbon, water and energy exchanges between the biosphere and atmosphere. Accurate prediction of spring phenology is therefore a prerequisite to foresee the impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ecosystems. In the present study, we studied the model performance of four widely used process-based models of spring leaf unfolding, including both a one-phase model (not considering a chilling phase: the Thermal Time model) and three two-phase models (all accounting for a required chilling period: the Parallel model, the Sequential model, the Unified model). Models were tested on five deciduous tree species occurring across Europe. We specifically investigated the divergence of their phenology predictions under future climate warming scenarios and studied the differences in the chilling periods. We found that, in general, the two-phase models performed slightly better than the one-phase model when fitting to the observed data, with all two-phase models performing similarly. However, leaf unfolding projections diverged substantially among the two-phase models over the period 2070-2100. Furthermore, we found that the modeled end dates of the chilling periods in these models also diverged, with advances for both the Sequential and Parallel models during the period 2070-2100 (compared to the period 1980-2010), and delays in the Unified model. These findings thus highlight large uncertainty in the two-phase phenology models and confirm that the mechanism underlying the leaf unfolding process is not yet understood. We therefore urgently need an improved understanding of the leaf unfolding process in order to improve the representation of phenology in terrestrial ecosystem models.

Extending the Cultivation Area of Pecan (Carya illinoinensis) Toward the South in Southeastern Subtropical China May Cause Increased Cold Damage

Pecan (Carya illinoinensis) is an important nut tree species in its native areas in temperate and subtropical North America, and as an introduced crop in subtropical southeastern China as well. We used process-based modeling to assess the effects of climatic warming in southeastern China on the leaf-out phenology of pecan seedlings and the subsequent risk of "false springs," i.e., damage caused by low temperatures occurring as a result of prematurely leafing out. In order to maximize the biological realism of the model used in scenario simulations, we developed the model on the basis of experiments explicitly designed for determining the responses modeled. The model showed reasonable internal accuracy when calibrated against leaf-out observations in a whole-tree chamber (WTC) experiment with nine different natural-like fluctuating temperature treatments. The model was used to project the timing of leaf-out in the period 2022-2099 under the warming scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in southeastern China. Two locations in the main pecan cultivation area in the northern subtropical zone and one location south of the main cultivation area were addressed. Generally, an advancing trend of leaf-out was projected for all the three locations under both warming scenarios, but in the southern location, a delay was projected under RCP8.5 in many years during the first decades of the 21st century. In the two northern locations, cold damage caused by false springs was projected to occur once in 15-26 years at most, suggesting that pecan cultivation can be continued relatively safely in these two locations. Paradoxically, more frequent cold damage was projected for the southern location than for the two northern locations. The results for the southern location also differed from those for the northern locations in that more frequent cold damage was projected under the RCP4.5 warming scenario (once in 6 years) than under the RCP8.5 scenario (once in 11 years) in the southern location. Due to the uncertainties of the model applied, our conclusions need to be re-examined in an additional experimental study and further model development based on it; but on the basis of our present results, we do not recommend starting large-scale pecan cultivation in locations south of the present main pecan cultivation area in southeastern subtropical China.

DDRP: Real-time phenology and climatic suitability modeling of invasive insects

Rapidly detecting and responding to new invasive species and the spread of those that are already established is essential for reducing their potential threat to food production, the economy, and the environment. We describe a new spatial modeling platform that integrates mapping of phenology and climatic suitability in real-time to provide timely and comprehensive guidance for stakeholders needing to know both where and when invasive insect species could potentially invade the conterminous United States. The Degree-Days, Risk, and Phenological event mapping (DDRP) platform serves as an open-source and relatively easy-to-parameterize decision support tool to help detect new invasive threats, schedule monitoring and management actions, optimize biological control, and predict potential impacts on agricultural production. DDRP uses a process-based modeling approach in which degree-days and temperature stress are calculated daily and accumulate over time to model phenology and climatic suitability, respectively. Outputs include predictions of the number of completed generations, life stages present, dates of phenological events, and climatically suitable areas based on two levels of climate stress. Species parameter values can be derived from laboratory and field studies or estimated through an additional modeling step. DDRP is written entirely in R, making it flexible and extensible, and capitalizes on multiple R packages to generate gridded and graphical outputs. We illustrate the DDRP modeling platform and the process of model parameterization using two invasive insect species as example threats to United States agriculture: the light brown apple moth, Epiphyas postvittana, and the small tomato borer, Neoleucinodes elegantalis. We then discuss example applications of DDRP as a decision support tool, review its potential limitations and sources of model error, and outline some ideas for future improvements to the platform.

Soil thawing regulates the spring growth onset in tundra and alpine biomes

Soil temperature remains isothermal at 0 °C and water shifts to a liquid phase during soil thawing. Vegetation may receive this process as a signal and a key to restore physiological activity. We aimed to show the relationship between the timing of soil thawing and the spring growth onset. We estimated the delay between the soil thawing and the spring growth onset in 78 sites of the FLUXNET network. We built a soil thawing map derived from modeling for the northern hemisphere and related it to the greenness onset estimated with satellite imagery. Spring onset estimated with GPP time series occurred shortly after soil surface thawing in tundra (1.1 ± 3.5 days) and alpine grasslands (16.6 ± 5.8 days). The association was weaker for deciduous forests (40.3 ± 4.2 days), especially where soils freeze infrequently. Needleleaved forests tended to start the growing season before the end of thawing (-17.4 ± 3.6 days), although observations from remote sensing (MODIS Land Cover Dynamics) indicated that the onset of greenness started after the thawing period (26.8 ± 3.2 days). This study highlights the role of soil temperature at the spring growth onset at high latitudes. Soil thawing becomes less relevant in temperate forests, where soil is occasionally frozen and other climate factors become more important.

The influence of climate and habitat on stable isotope signatures and the isotopic niche of nestling White-headed Woodpeckers (Dryobates albolarvatus)

The majority of landbird species feed their nestlings arthropods and variation in arthropod populations can impact reproductive outcomes in these species. Arthropod populations in turn are influenced by climate because temperature affects survival and reproduction, and larval development. Thus, climate factors have the potential to influence many bird species during their reproductive phases. In this study, we assessed climate factors that impact the diet of nestling White-headed Woodpecker (Dryobates albolarvatus), an at-risk keystone species in much of its range in western North America. To do this, we measured stable isotope signatures (δ13C and δ15N) in 152 nestlings across six years and linked variation in isotopic values to winter (December-February) and spring (June) precipitation and temperature using mixed effects models. We also explored habitat factors that may impact δ13C and δ15N and the relationship between δ15N and nest productivity. Last, we estimated isotopic niche width for nestlings in different watersheds and years using Bayesian standard ellipses, which allowed us to compare dietary niche width and overlap. We found that colder winter temperatures were associated with an increase in δ15N and δ15N levels had a weak positive relationship with nest productivity. We also found that sites with a more diverse tree community were associated with a broader isotopic niche width in nestlings. Our findings suggest that nestling diet is affected by climate, and under future warming climate scenarios, White-headed Woodpecker nestling diet may shift in favor of lower trophic level prey (prey with lower δ15N levels). The impact of such changes on woodpecker populations merits further study.

Seasonal Population Dynamics of Potato Psyllid (Hemiptera: Triozidae) in the Columbia River Basin

Understanding factors that affect the population dynamics of insect pest species is key for developing integrated pest management strategies in agroecosystems. Most insect pest populations are strongly regulated by abiotic factors such as temperature and precipitation, and assessing relationships between abiotic conditions and pest dynamics can aid decision-making. However, many pests are also managed with insecticides, which can confound relationships between abiotic factors and pest dynamics. Here we used data from a regional monitoring network in the Pacific Northwest United States to explore effects of abiotic factors on populations of an intensively managed potato pest, the potato psyllid (Bactericera cockerelli Šulc), which can vector Candidatus Liberibacter psyllaurus, a bacterial pathogen of potatoes. We assessed effects of temperature on psyllid populations, and show psyllid population growth followed predictable patterns within each year, but there was considerable variation across years in psyllid abundance. Examination of seasonal weather patterns suggested that in 2017, when psyllid populations were less abundant by several orders of magnitude than other years, a particularly long and cold period of winter weather may have harmed overwintering populations and limited population growth. The rate of degree-day accumulation over time, as well as total degree-day accumulation also affected trap catch abundance, likely by mediating the number of psyllid generations per season. Our findings indicate that growers can reliably infer the potential magnitude of risk from potato psyllids using monitoring data, date of first detection, seasonal weather patterns, and population size early in the growing season.

Modeling leaf senescence of deciduous tree species in Europe

Autumnal leaf senescence signals the end of photosynthetic activities in temperate deciduous trees and consequently exerts a strong control on various ecological processes. Predicting leaf senescence dates (LSD) with high accuracy is thus a prerequisite for better understanding the climate-ecosystem interactions. However, modeling LSD at large spatial and temporal scales is challenging. In this study, first, we used 19972 site-year records (848 sites and four deciduous tree species) from the PAN European Phenology network to calibrate and evaluate six leaf senescence models during the period 1980-2013. Second, we extended the spatial analysis by repeating the procedure across Europe using satellite-derived end of growing season and a forest map. Overall, we found that models that considered photoperiod and temperature interactions outperformed models using simple temperature or photoperiod thresholds for Betula pendula, Fagus sylvatica and Quercus robur. On the contrary, no model displayed reasonable predictions for Aesculus hippocastanum. This inter-model comparison indicates that, contrary to expectation, photoperiod does not significantly modulate the accumulation of cooling degree days (CDD). On the other hand, considering the carryover effect of leaf unfolding date could promote the models' predictability. The CDD models generally matched the observed LSD at species level and its interannual variation, but were limited in explaining the inter-site variations, indicating that other environmental cues need to be considered in future model development. The discrepancies remaining between model simulations and observations highlight the need of manipulation studies to elucidate the mechanisms behind the leaf senescence process and to make current models more realistic.

Phenological responses of temperate and boreal trees to warming depend on ambient spring temperatures, leaf habit, and geographic range

Changes in plant phenology associated with climate change have been observed globally. What is poorly known is whether and how phenological responses to climate warming will differ from year to year, season to season, habitat to habitat, or species to species. Here, we present 5 y of phenological responses to experimental warming for 10 subboreal tree species. Research took place in the open-air B4WarmED experiment in Minnesota. The design is a two habitat (understory and open) × three warming treatments (ambient, +1.7 °C, +3.4 °C) factorial at two sites. Phenology was measured twice weekly during the growing seasons of 2009 through 2013. We found significant interannual variation in the effect of warming and differences among species in response to warming that relate to geographic origin and plant functional group. Moreover, responses to experimental temperature variation were similar to responses to natural temperature variation. Warming advanced the date of budburst more in early compared to late springs, suggesting that to simulate interannual variability in climate sensitivity of phenology, models should employ process-based or continuous development approaches. Differences among species in timing of budburst were also greater in early compared to late springs. Our results suggest that climate change-which will make most springs relatively "early"-could lead to a future with more variable phenology among years and among species, with consequences including greater risk of inappropriately early leafing and altered interactions among species.