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Hirai K, Kitano T, Nakayama K, Morita F, Satomura H, Tanaka T, Yoshioka T, Matsumoto M, Kimura Y, Shikanai T, Sasaki K, Zhang Z, Ito K, Ookawara S, Morishita Y. Approximation of Glomerular Filtration Rate after 1 Year Using Annual Medical Examination Data. J Clin Med 2024; 13:4207. [PMID: 39064247 PMCID: PMC11278328 DOI: 10.3390/jcm13144207] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2024] [Revised: 07/14/2024] [Accepted: 07/16/2024] [Indexed: 07/28/2024] Open
Abstract
Background: This cohort study was conducted to devise an approximation formula for predicting the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) after 1 year using annual medical examination data from the general population. Methods: Consecutive annual medical examination data were obtained for 41,337 inhabitants. Machine learning with the random forest method was used to assess the importance of each clinical parameter in terms of its association with estimated GFR (eGFR) after 1 year. An approximation formula was developed by multiple linear regression analysis based on the four most important clinical parameters. The relationship between the GFR after 1 year approximated by our formula and the eGFR after 1 year was analyzed using Pearson's correlation coefficient. Results: The following approximation formula was obtained by multiple linear regression analysis: approximate GFR after 1 year (mL/min/1.73 m2) = -0.054 × age + 0.162 × hemoglobin - 0.085 × uric acid + 0.849 × eGFR + 11.5. The approximate GFR after 1 year was significantly and strongly correlated with the eGFR at that time (r = 0.884; p < 0.001). Conclusions: An approximation formula including age, hemoglobin, uric acid, and eGFR may be useful for predicting GFR after 1 year among members of the general population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Keiji Hirai
- Division of Nephrology, First Department of Integrated Medicine, Saitama Medical Center, Jichi Medical University, Saitama 330-8503, Japan; (T.K.); (K.I.); (S.O.); (Y.M.)
| | - Taisuke Kitano
- Division of Nephrology, First Department of Integrated Medicine, Saitama Medical Center, Jichi Medical University, Saitama 330-8503, Japan; (T.K.); (K.I.); (S.O.); (Y.M.)
| | - Keiji Nakayama
- Omiya Medical Association Cohort Study Group, Saitama 331-8689, Japan; (K.N.); (F.M.); (H.S.); (T.T.); (T.Y.); (M.M.)
- Nakayama Clinic, Saitama 330-0855, Japan
| | - Fujiko Morita
- Omiya Medical Association Cohort Study Group, Saitama 331-8689, Japan; (K.N.); (F.M.); (H.S.); (T.T.); (T.Y.); (M.M.)
- Morita Clinic, Saitama 337-0051, Japan
| | - Hajime Satomura
- Omiya Medical Association Cohort Study Group, Saitama 331-8689, Japan; (K.N.); (F.M.); (H.S.); (T.T.); (T.Y.); (M.M.)
- Satomura Clinic, Saitama 331-0813, Japan
| | - Takahisa Tanaka
- Omiya Medical Association Cohort Study Group, Saitama 331-8689, Japan; (K.N.); (F.M.); (H.S.); (T.T.); (T.Y.); (M.M.)
- Tanaka Diabetes Clinic Omiya, Saitama 330-0846, Japan
| | - Toru Yoshioka
- Omiya Medical Association Cohort Study Group, Saitama 331-8689, Japan; (K.N.); (F.M.); (H.S.); (T.T.); (T.Y.); (M.M.)
- Yoshioka Clinic, Saitama 330-0851, Japan
| | - Masahiko Matsumoto
- Omiya Medical Association Cohort Study Group, Saitama 331-8689, Japan; (K.N.); (F.M.); (H.S.); (T.T.); (T.Y.); (M.M.)
- Matsumoto Clinic, Saitama 331-0822, Japan
| | - Yuichi Kimura
- LIMNO Co., Ltd., Tottori 680-8634, Japan;
- BioICT Co., Ltd., Yokohama 227-0038, Japan
| | - Taku Shikanai
- Azest, Inc., Chiyoda 101-0052, Japan; (T.S.); (K.S.); (Z.Z.)
| | - Koji Sasaki
- Azest, Inc., Chiyoda 101-0052, Japan; (T.S.); (K.S.); (Z.Z.)
| | - Zhiying Zhang
- Azest, Inc., Chiyoda 101-0052, Japan; (T.S.); (K.S.); (Z.Z.)
| | - Kiyonori Ito
- Division of Nephrology, First Department of Integrated Medicine, Saitama Medical Center, Jichi Medical University, Saitama 330-8503, Japan; (T.K.); (K.I.); (S.O.); (Y.M.)
| | - Susumu Ookawara
- Division of Nephrology, First Department of Integrated Medicine, Saitama Medical Center, Jichi Medical University, Saitama 330-8503, Japan; (T.K.); (K.I.); (S.O.); (Y.M.)
| | - Yoshiyuki Morishita
- Division of Nephrology, First Department of Integrated Medicine, Saitama Medical Center, Jichi Medical University, Saitama 330-8503, Japan; (T.K.); (K.I.); (S.O.); (Y.M.)
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Dong W, Tang Y, Lei M, Ma Z, Zhang X, Shen J, Hao J, Jiang W, Hu Z. The effect of perioperative sequential application of multiple doses of tranexamic acid on postoperative blood loss after PLIF: a prospective randomized controlled trial. Int J Surg 2024; 110:2122-2133. [PMID: 38215261 PMCID: PMC11020010 DOI: 10.1097/js9.0000000000001083] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2023] [Accepted: 12/27/2023] [Indexed: 01/14/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Tranexamic acid (TXA) has been utilized in spinal surgery to effectively reduce intraoperative blood loss (IBL) and allogeneic blood transfusion rates. However, the traditional TXA regimen might last the entire duration of hyperfibrinolysis caused by surgical trauma, resulting in its limited ability to reduce postoperative blood loss (PBL). Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of perioperative sequential administration of multiple doses of TXA in reducing PBL in patients who underwent posterior lumbar interbody fusion (PLIF). METHODS From October 2022 to June 2023, 231 patients who were diagnosed with lumbar degenerative disease and scheduled to undergo PLIF were prospectively enrolled in the present study. The patients were randomly divided into three groups. Moreover, all patients received an intravenous injection of TXA at a dose of 15 mg/kg 15 min before the surgical skin incision. Patients in Group A received a placebo of normal saline after surgery, while patients in Group B received three additional intravenous injections of TXA at a dose of 15 mg/kg every 24 h. Patients in Group C received three additional intravenous injections of TXA at a dose of 15 mg/kg every 5 h. The primary outcome measure was PBL. In addition, this study assessed total blood loss (TBL), IBL, routine blood parameters, liver and kidney function, coagulation parameters, fibrinolysis indexes, inflammatory indicators, drainage tube removal time (DRT), length of hospital stay (LOS), blood transfusion rate, and incidence of complications for all subjects. RESULTS The PBL, TBL, DRT, and LOS of Group B and Group C were significantly lower than those of Group A ( P <0.05). The level of D-dimer (D-D) in Group C was significantly lower than that in Group A on the first day after the operation ( P =0.002), and that in Group B was significantly lower than that in Group A on the third day after the operation ( P =0.003). The interleukin-6 levels between the three groups from 1 to 5 days after the operation were in the order of Group A > Group B > Group C. No serious complications were observed in any patient. The results of multiple stepwise linear regression analysis revealed that PBL was positively correlated with incision length, IBL, smoking history, history of hypertension, preoperative fibrinogen degradation product level, and blood transfusion. It was negatively correlated with preoperative levels of fibrinogen, red blood cells, blood urea nitrogen, and age. Compared to female patients, male patients had an increased risk of PBL. Finally, the incidence of PBL was predicted. CONCLUSIONS Sequential application of multiple doses of TXA during the perioperative period could safely and effectively reduce PBL and TBL, shorten DRT and LOS, reduce postoperative D-D generation, and reduce the postoperative inflammatory response. In addition, this study provided a novel prediction model for PBL in patients undergoing PLIF.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei Dong
- Department of Orthopedics, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Orthopedic Laboratory of Chongqing Medical University
| | - Yuchen Tang
- Department of Orthopedics, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Orthopedic Laboratory of Chongqing Medical University
| | - Miao Lei
- Department of Orthopedics, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Orthopedic Laboratory of Chongqing Medical University
| | - Zhaoxin Ma
- Department of Orthopedics, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Orthopedic Laboratory of Chongqing Medical University
| | - Xiaojun Zhang
- Department of Orthopedics, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Orthopedic Laboratory of Chongqing Medical University
| | - Jieliang Shen
- Department of Orthopedics, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Orthopedic Laboratory of Chongqing Medical University
| | - Jie Hao
- Department of Orthopedics, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Orthopedic Laboratory of Chongqing Medical University
| | - Wei Jiang
- Department of Orthopedics, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Orthopedic Laboratory of Chongqing Medical University
| | - Zhenming Hu
- Department of Orthopedics, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Orthopedic Laboratory of Chongqing Medical University
- Department of Orthopedics Surgery, University-Town Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, People’s Republic of China
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Andrade JF, Dalboni MA, Clemente OC, Silva BM, Domingues BF, Rodrigues AM, Canziani ME, Zarjou A, Cendoroglo M, Goes MA. A retrospective view of the relationship of soluble Fas with anemia and outcomes in chronic kidney disease. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0286854. [PMID: 37390095 PMCID: PMC10313056 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0286854] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/08/2023] [Accepted: 05/24/2023] [Indexed: 07/02/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Anemia is common in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and is associated with outcomes. In addition, serum soluble Fas (sFas) levels are related to anemia and erythropoietin (EPO) resistance. OBJECTIVES Firstly, to compare clinical data and serum levels of sFas, EPO, and pro-inflammatory markers between patients with non-dialytic CKD (NDD-CKD) and healthy subjects. Subsequently, to compare and evaluate the relationship of serum EPO, sFas levels with anemia, and outcomes in patients with NDD-CKD over a long follow-up period. METHODS We performed a retrospective study in 58 NDD-CKD patients compared with 20 healthy subjects on complete blood count, kidney function, serum EPO, sFas, and inflammatory markers (CRP, IL- 6, and IFN-γ) at baseline. We then compared the same baseline data between patients with NDD-CKD who evolved to anemia and those who did not have anemia over the follow-up. We also evaluated the frequency of outcomes in patients with CKD with higher sFas levels. Finally, we performed a multivariate analysis of factors associated with CKD anemia. RESULTS There were lower eGFR and Hb but higher serum inflammatory markers, sFas levels, sFas/eGFR, and EPO/Hb ratios in patients with NDD-CKD. Comparatively, on the other hand, NDD-CKD patients with anemia had lower eGFR but were older, had more diabetes, and had higher sFas/ eGFR, EPO/Hb ratios, and serum levels of IL-6 and sFas than NDD-CKD without anemia for an extended period. In addition, there was an association in a multivariate analysis of diabetes, age, and sFas levels with kidney anemia. Furthermore, there were higher frequencies of outcomes in increased serum sFas levels. CONCLUSION As an elective risk factor, serum sFas levels, in addition to age and diabetes, were independently associated with kidney anemia for an extended period. Thus, more studies are necessary to analyze the proper relationship of sFas with kidney anemia and its outcomes and therapy in CKD.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Maria A. Dalboni
- Department of Research and Graduate, Universidade Nove de Julho/UNINOVE, São Paulo, Brazil
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Abolfazl Zarjou
- Division of Nephrology, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, Alabama, United States of America
| | - Miguel Cendoroglo
- Department of Superintendence and Board, Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Miguel Angelo Goes
- Division of Nephrology, Federal University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
- Medical School, Faculdade Israelita de Ciências da Saúde Albert Einstein, São Paulo, Brazil
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Helegbe GK, Aryee P, Mohammed BS. Preterm Delivery and Neonatal Deaths among Anaemic Pregnant Women in the Bolgatanga Metropolis of Ghana. Anemia 2023; 2023:9865224. [PMID: 37363756 PMCID: PMC10287521 DOI: 10.1155/2023/9865224] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/31/2022] [Revised: 05/01/2023] [Accepted: 05/24/2023] [Indexed: 06/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Preterm deliveries and neonatal deaths as functions of anaemia in pregnancy are of major public health interest. However, data on the prevalence of preterm deliveries and their association with mortality in anaemic pregnant women in the study area are scanty. Thus, the study sought to investigate the prevalence of preterm delivery and neonatal deaths among anaemic pregnant women in the Bolgatanga Regional Hospital in the Upper East Region of Ghana during the past five years. A retrospective study design was adopted, and data were gathered between March and May 2016. Records of women who were anaemic during any trimester of their pregnancy and delivered in the hospital within the last five years were included in the study. In all, two hundred (200) cases were reviewed. Data on the sociodemographic characteristics, health status, and birth outcome of participants were captured, and analyses were conducted using SPSS version 21 while considering significant differences at p < 0.05. The study revealed that more than half of the anaemic women (52.5%, n = 105) had preterm deliveries, while neonatal mortality was 8.5% (n = 17). The proportion of mothers who received dietary or medical intervention for the treatment of anaemia and the number of attendances to antenatal clinics were comparable between preterm and normal-term mothers (p > 0.05). Mothers with preterm deliveries had a higher risk of neonatal mortality (AOR = 13.66, 95% CI = 1.65-113.30, and p=0.015). This study has shown that anaemia in pregnancy increases the risk of preterm delivery and neonatal death. It is recommended that extra care be given to pregnant women with anaemia, while further studies are conducted with a larger sample size to substantiate the claims made in this study.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gideon K. Helegbe
- Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Medicine, School of Medicine, University for Development Studies, Tamale, Ghana
| | - Paul Aryee
- Department of Nutritional Sciences, School of Allied Health Sciences, University for Development Studies, Tamale, Ghana
| | - Baba Sulemana Mohammed
- Department of Pharmacology, School of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences, University for Development Studies, Tamale, Ghana
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Hwang JA, Shin J, Cho E, Ahn SY, Ko GJ, Kwon YJ, Kim JE. Risk factors associated with the discordance in kidney function decline rate in identical twins. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0284154. [PMID: 37053150 PMCID: PMC10101412 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0284154] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2022] [Accepted: 03/26/2023] [Indexed: 04/14/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The rate of kidney function decline is different for each individual regardless of any difference in the medical histories. This study set out to identify the risk factors for high discordance in kidney function decline in an identical twin cohort. METHODS This study included 333 identical twins from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study who were categorized into two groups according to the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline: the slow and rapid progressor groups. The mean differences of variables were compared between the two groups. We calculated the difference in the annual eGFR change between twins and analyzed the risk factors associated with high discordance in twins who had > 5 mL/min/1.73 m2 /yr of the intra-twin difference in the annual eGFR decline. Identical twins with diabetes and baseline eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 were excluded. RESULTS The high discordance twins showed significant differences in body mass index; waist-to-hip ratio; total body fat percentage; and levels of blood hemoglobin, serum fasting glucose, albumin, triglyceride, and uric acid; however, there were no differences in low discordance twins. Multivariable logistic regression showed that blood hemoglobin level is the only significant factor associated with high discordance of eGFR decline in twins. CONCLUSIONS Blood hemoglobin level may play a role in the individual differences in kidney function decline.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeong Ah Hwang
- Department of Internal Medicine, Korea University Guro Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jaeun Shin
- Department of Internal Medicine, Korea University Guro Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Eunjung Cho
- Department of Internal Medicine, Korea University Guro Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Shin Young Ahn
- Department of Internal Medicine, Korea University Guro Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Department of Internal Medicine, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Gang-Jee Ko
- Department of Internal Medicine, Korea University Guro Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Department of Internal Medicine, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Young Joo Kwon
- Department of Internal Medicine, Korea University Guro Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Department of Internal Medicine, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Ji Eun Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Korea University Guro Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Department of Internal Medicine, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
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Cai YL, Wang SQ, Zhong HJ, He XX. The effect of anemia on the severity and prognosis of patients with acute pancreatitis: A single-center retrospective study. Medicine (Baltimore) 2022; 101:e32501. [PMID: 36596024 PMCID: PMC9803478 DOI: 10.1097/md.0000000000032501] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/06/2022] [Accepted: 12/08/2022] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
Anemia was a risk factor for a worse prognosis of many diseases. This study aims to investigate the relationship between anemia and the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis (AP). Inpatients hospitalized at the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Pharmaceutical University with a primary diagnosis of AP between 1st July 2016 to 31st December 2020 were enrolled. Subsequently, disease severity, the incidence of complications, and the prognosis of patients with AP were compared between the anemic group and the non-anemic group. A total of 282 patients with acute pancreatitis were enrolled; 68.43% of them were also diagnosed with anemia. Notably, these patients had more severe disease (higher RANSON, acute physiologic assessment and chronic health evaluation-II, bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis, and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome scores); higher incidence of organ failure (acute kidney injury [AKI] and acute heart failure); worse prognosis (higher incidence of vasoactive and diuretic agent use, longer hospital stays, and higher hospital costs) compared to that of patients without anemia (all P < .05). After adjusting for potential confounders, acute physiologic assessment and chronic health evaluation-II, bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis, multiple organ dysfunction syndrome scores, hospital stay, and hospital costs in anemic patients were higher than those in non-anemic patients; besides, the incidence of AKI and using a diuretic agent in anemic patients was 6.645 and 4.053 times that of non-anemic patients in AP, respectively (all P < .05). Acute pancreatitis patients with anemia have more disease severity, higher incidence of AKI, and worse prognosis compared to those without anemia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ying-Li Cai
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, China
- Department of Endoscope Center, Jiangmen Central Hospital, Jiangmen, Guangdong, China
| | - Si-Qi Wang
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Hao-Jie Zhong
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, China
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Microbial Safety and Health, State Key Laboratory of Applied Microbiology Southern China, Guangdong Institute of Microbiology, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China
| | - Xing-Xiang He
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, China
- * Correspondence: Xing-Xiang He, Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China (e-mail: )
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Wittbrodt ET, James G, Kumar S, van Haalen H, Chen H, Sloand JA, Kalantar-Zadeh K. Contemporary outcomes of anemia in US patients with chronic kidney disease. Clin Kidney J 2022; 15:244-252. [PMID: 35145639 PMCID: PMC8824810 DOI: 10.1093/ckj/sfab195] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/12/2021] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Long-term clinical outcome data from patients with non-dialysis-dependent (NDD) chronic kidney disease (CKD) are lacking. We characterized patients with NDD-CKD and anemia using real-world data from the USA. Methods This retrospective longitudinal observational study evaluated integrated Limited Claims and Electronic Health Record Data (IBM Health, Armonk, NY), including patients ≥18 years with two or more estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) measures <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 ≥90 days apart. Anemia was defined as the first observed hemoglobin <10 g/dL within 6-month pre- and post-CKD index date. Data were analyzed from January 2012 to June 2018. Patients with documented iron-deficiency anemia at baseline were excluded. Results Comprising 22 720 patients (57.4% female, 63.9% CKD stage 3, median hemoglobin 12.5 g/dL), median (interquartile range) follow-up for patients with and without anemia were 2.9 (1.5-4.4) and 3.8 (2.2-4.8) years, respectively. The most prevalent comorbidities were dyslipidemia (57.6%), type 2 diabetes mellitus (38.8%) and uncontrolled hypertension (20.0%). Overall, 23.3% of patients had anemia, of whom 1.9% and <0.1% received erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) or intravenous iron, respectively. Anemia prevalence increased with CKD stage from 18.2% (stage 3a) to 72.8% (stage 5). Patients with anemia had a higher incidence rate of hospitalizations for heart failure (1.6 versus 0.8 per 100 patient-years), CKD stage advancement (43.5 versus 27.5 per 100 patient-years), and a 40% eGFR decrease (18.1 versus 7.3 per 100 patient-years) versus those without anemia. Conclusions Anemia, frequently observed in NDD-CKD and associated with adverse clinical outcomes, is rarely treated with ESAs and intravenous iron. These data suggest that opportunities exist for improved anemia management in patients with NDD-CKD.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Glen James
- AstraZeneca, Biopharmaceuticals Medical, Cambridge, UK
| | - Supriya Kumar
- AstraZeneca, Biopharmaceuticals Medical, Gaithersburg, MD, USA
| | | | - Hungta Chen
- AstraZeneca, Biopharmaceuticals Medical, Gaithersburg, MD, USA
| | - James A Sloand
- AstraZeneca, Biopharmaceuticals Medical, Gaithersburg, MD, USA
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Zhang Q, Lu J, Lei L, Li G, Liang H, Zhang J, Li Y, Lu X, Zhang X, Chen Y, Pan J, Chen Y, Lin X, Li X, Zhou S, An S, Xiu J. Nomogram to predict rapid kidney function decline in population at risk of cardiovascular disease. BMC Nephrol 2022; 23:62. [PMID: 35144580 PMCID: PMC8830119 DOI: 10.1186/s12882-022-02696-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2021] [Accepted: 02/07/2022] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND To develop a reliable model to predict rapid kidney function decline (RKFD) among population at risk of cardiovascular disease. METHODS In this retrospective study, key monitoring residents including the elderly, and patients with hypertension or diabetes of China National Basic Public Health Service who underwent community annual physical examinations from January 2015 to December 2020 were included. Healthy records were extracted from regional chronic disease management platform. RKFD was defined as the reduction of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥ 40% during follow-up period. The entire cohort were randomly assigned to a development cohort and a validation cohort in a 2:1 ratio. Cox regression analysis was used to identify the independent predictors. A nomogram was established based on the development cohort. The concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots were calculated. Decision curve analysis was applied to evaluate the clinical utility. RESULTS A total of 8455 subjects were included. During the median follow-up period of 3.72 years, the incidence of RKFD was 11.96% (n = 1011), 11.98% (n = 676) and 11.92% (n = 335) in the entire cohort, development cohort and validation cohort, respectively. Age, eGFR, hemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, and diabetes were identified as predictors for RKFD. Good discriminating performance was observed in both the development (C-index, 0.73) and the validation (C-index, 0.71) cohorts, and the AUCs for predicting 5-years RKFD was 0.763 and 0.740 in the development and the validation cohort, respectively. Decision curve analysis further confirmed the clinical utility of the nomogram. CONCLUSIONS Our nomogram based on five readily accessible variables (age, eGFR, hemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, and diabetes) is a useful tool to identify high risk patients for RKFD among population at risk of cardiovascular disease in primary care. Whereas, further external validations are needed before clinical generalization.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qiuxia Zhang
- Department of Cardiology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, No. 1838, Guangzhou Avenue North, Guangzhou, 510515, China
| | - Junyan Lu
- Department of Cardiology, Zhengcheng Branch of Nanfang Hospital, Zengcheng District, Guangzhou, China
| | - Li Lei
- Department of Cardiology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, No. 1838, Guangzhou Avenue North, Guangzhou, 510515, China
| | - Guodong Li
- Department of Cardiology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, No. 1838, Guangzhou Avenue North, Guangzhou, 510515, China
| | - Hongbin Liang
- Department of Cardiology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, No. 1838, Guangzhou Avenue North, Guangzhou, 510515, China
| | - Jingyi Zhang
- Community Health Service Center, Zengjiang Avenue, Zengcheng District, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yun Li
- Department of Public health, Xintang Hospital, Zengcheng District, Guangzhou, China
| | - Xiangqi Lu
- Department of Cardiology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, No. 1838, Guangzhou Avenue North, Guangzhou, 510515, China
| | - Xinlu Zhang
- Department of Cardiology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, No. 1838, Guangzhou Avenue North, Guangzhou, 510515, China
| | - Yaode Chen
- Department of Cardiology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, No. 1838, Guangzhou Avenue North, Guangzhou, 510515, China
| | - Jiazhi Pan
- Department of Cardiology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, No. 1838, Guangzhou Avenue North, Guangzhou, 510515, China
| | - Yejia Chen
- Department of Cardiology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, No. 1838, Guangzhou Avenue North, Guangzhou, 510515, China
| | - Xinxin Lin
- Department of Cardiology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, No. 1838, Guangzhou Avenue North, Guangzhou, 510515, China
| | - Xiaobo Li
- Department of Cardiology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, No. 1838, Guangzhou Avenue North, Guangzhou, 510515, China
| | - Shiyu Zhou
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, No. 1838, Guangzhou Avenue North, Guangzhou, 510515, China
| | - Shengli An
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, No. 1838, Guangzhou Avenue North, Guangzhou, 510515, China.
| | - Jiancheng Xiu
- Department of Cardiology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, No. 1838, Guangzhou Avenue North, Guangzhou, 510515, China.
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