Prospective Validation of the Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade for Acute Heart Failure

Role of spot urinary sodium in outpatients with heart failure

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Spot determination of urinary sodium (UNa+) has emerged as a useful tool for monitoring diuretic response in patients with acute heart failure (AHF). However, the evidence in outpatients is scarce. We aimed to examine the relationship between spot UNa+ levels and the risk of mortality and worsening heart failure (WHF) events in individuals with chronic HF.

METHODS

This observational and ambispective study included 1145 outpatients with chronic HF followed in a single center specialized HF clinic. UNa+ assessment was carried out 1-5 days before each visit. The endpoints of the study were the association between UNa+ and risk of a) long-term death and b) AHF-hospitalization and total WHF events (including AHF-hospitalization, emergency department visits or parenteral loop-diuretic administration in HF clinic), assessed by multivariate Cox and negative binomial regressions.

RESULTS

The mean±standard deviation of age was 73±11 years, 670 (58.5%) were men, 902 (78.8%) were on stable NYHA class II, and 595 (52%) had LFEF ≥50%. The median (interquartile range) UNa+ was 72 (51-94) mmol/L. Over a median follow-up of 2.63 (1.70-3.36) years, there were 293 (25.6%) deaths and 382 WHF events (244 AHF-admissions) in 233 (20.3%) patients. After multivariate adjustment, baseline UNa+ was inverse and linearly associated with the risk of total WHF (IRR, 1.07; 95%CI, 1.02-1.12; P=.007) and AHF-admissions (IRR, 1.08; 95%CI, 1.02-1.14; P=.012) and borderline associated with all-cause mortality (HR, 1.04; 95%CI, 0.99-1.09; P=.068).

CONCLUSIONS

In outpatients with chronic HF, lower UNa+ was associated with a higher risk of recurrent WHF events.

The HEARTRISK6 Scale: Predicting Short-Term Serious Outcomes in Emergency Department Acute Heart Failure Patients

Background

Acute heart failure (AHF) is a common emergency department (ED) presentation that may have poor outcomes but often does not require hospital admission. There is little evidence to guide dispositional decisions.

Objectives

The authors sought to create a risk score for predicting short-term serious outcomes (SSO) in patients with AHF.

Methods

We pooled data from 3 prospective cohorts: 2 published studies and 1 new cohort. The 3 cohorts prospectively enrolled patients who required treatment for AHF at 10 tertiary care hospital EDs. The primary outcome was SSO, defined as death <30 days, intubation or noninvasive ventilation (NIV), myocardial infarction, or relapse to ED <14 days. The logistic regression model evaluated 13 predictors, used an AIC-based step-down procedure, and bootstrapped internal validation.

Results

Of the 2,246 patients in the 3 cohorts (N = 559; 1,100; 587), the mean age was 77.4 years, 54.5% were male, 3.1% received intravenous nitroglycerin, 5.2% received ED NIV, and 48.6% were admitted to the hospital. There were 281 (12.5%) SSOs including 70 deaths (3.1%) with many in discharged patients. The final HEARTRISK6 Scale included 6 variables: valvular heart disease, tachycardia, need for NIV, creatinine, troponin, and failed reassessment (walk test). Choosing HEARTRISK6 total-point admission thresholds of ≥1 or ≥2 would yield, respectively, sensitivities of 88.3% (95% CI: 83.9%-91.8%) and 71.5% (95% CI: 65.9%-76.7%) and specificities of 24.7% (95% CI: 22.8%-26.7%) and 50.1% (95% CI: 47.9%-52.4%) for SSO.

Conclusions

Using 3 large prospectively collected datasets, we created a concise and sensitive risk scale for patients with AHF in the ED. Implementation of the HEARTRISK6 scale could lead to safer and more efficient disposition decisions.

Blood pressure and heart failure: focused on treatment

Heart failure (HF) remains a significant global health burden, and hypertension is known to be the primary contributor to its development. Although aggressive hypertension treatment can prevent heart changes in at-risk patients, determining the optimal blood pressure (BP) targets in cases diagnosed with HF is challenging owing to insufficient evidence. Notably, hypertension is more strongly associated with HF with preserved ejection fraction than with HF with reduced ejection fraction. Patients with acute hypertensive HF exhibit sudden symptoms of acute HF, especially those manifested with severely high BP; however, no specific vasodilator therapy has proven beneficial for this type of acute HF. Since the majority of medications used to treat HF contribute to lowering BP, and BP remains one of the most important hemodynamic markers, targeted BP management is very concerned in treatment strategies. However, no concrete guidelines exist, prompting a trend towards optimizing therapies to within tolerable ranges, rather than setting explicit BP goals. This review discusses the connection between BP and HF, explores its pathophysiology through clinical studies, and addresses its clinical significance and treatment targets.

New insights in acute heart failure

Acute heart failure (AHF) is a clinical complex disease and a worldwide issue due to its inconsistent diagnosis and poor prognosis. The cornerstone of pathophysiology of AHF is systemic venous congestion, which is led by the underlying structural and functional cardiac condition. Systemic venous congestion is a major target for AHF management because it causes symptoms and organs dysfunction, and is associated with poor prognosis. The mainstay of decongestive therapy is diuresis with intravenous loop diuretics combined with other diuretics including thiazides when necessary, and non-invasive ventilation. The presence of unresolved congestion at discharge can lead heart failure related rehospitalization, and careful follow-up is required especially during "vulnerable phase", several months after discharge. The updated recommendation for management of AHF has been provided by latest guidelines from European Society of Cardiology and American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology/Heart Failure Society of America. Several large studies have currently demonstrated the benefits of guideline-directed oral medical therapies, and trials are ongoing on medication such as selective sodium-glucose transport proteins 2 inhibitors and protocols for congestive therapy. This review aimed to summarize the latest insights in AHF, based primarily on the most recent guidelines and large randomized controlled trials.

The prognostic value of improving congestion on lung ultrasound during treatment for acute heart failure differs based on patient characteristics at admission

BACKGROUND

Lung ultrasound congestion scoring (LUS-CS) is a congestion severity biomarker. The BLUSHED-AHF trial demonstrated feasibility for LUS-CS-guided therapy in acute heart failure (AHF). We investigated two questions: 1) does change (∆) in LUS-CS from emergency department (ED) to hospital-discharge predict patient outcomes, and 2) is the relationship between in-hospital decongestion and adverse events moderated by baseline risk-factors at admission?

METHODS

We performed a secondary analysis of 933 observations/128 patients from 5 hospitals in the BLUSHED-AHF trial receiving daily LUS. ∆LUS-CS from ED arrival to inpatient discharge (scale -160 to +160, where negative = improving congestion) was compared to a primary outcome of 30-day death/AHF-rehospitalization. Cox regression was used to adjust for mortality risk at admission [Get-With-The-Guidelines HF risk score (GWTG-RS)] and the discharge LUS-CS. An interaction between ∆LUS-CS and GWTG-RS was included, under the hypothesis that the association between decongestion intensity (by ∆LUS-CS) and adverse outcomes would be stronger in admitted patients with low-mortality risk but high baseline congestion.

RESULTS

Median age was 65 years, GWTG-RS 36, left ventricular ejection fraction 36 %, and ∆LUS-CS -20. In the multivariable analysis ∆LUS-CS was associated with event-free survival (HR = 0.61; 95 % CI: 0.38-0.97), while discharge LUS-CS (HR = 1.00; 95%CI: 0.54-1.84) did not add incremental prognostic value to ∆LUS-CS alone. As GWTG-RS rose, benefits of LUS-CS reduction attenuated (interaction p < 0.05). ∆LUS-CS and event-free survival were most strongly correlated in patients without tachycardia, tachypnea, hypotension, hyponatremia, uremia, advanced age, or history of myocardial infarction at ED/baseline, and those with low daily loop diuretic requirements.

CONCLUSIONS

Reduction in ∆LUS-CS during AHF treatment was most associated with improved readmission-free survival in heavily congested patients with otherwise reassuring features at admission. ∆LUS-CS may be most useful as a measure to ensure adequate decongestion prior to discharge, to prevent early readmission, rather than modify survival.

Two way workable microchanneled hydrogel suture to diagnose, treat and monitor the infarcted heart

During myocardial infarction, microcirculation disturbance in the ischemic area can cause necrosis and formation of fibrotic tissue, potentially leading to malignant arrhythmia and myocardial remodeling. Here, we report a microchanneled hydrogel suture for two-way signal communication, pumping drugs on demand, and cardiac repair. After myocardial infarction, our hydrogel suture monitors abnormal electrocardiogram through the mobile device and triggers nitric oxide on demand via the hydrogel sutures' microchannels, thereby inhibiting inflammation, promoting microvascular remodeling, and improving the left ventricular ejection fraction in rats and minipigs by more than 60% and 50%, respectively. This work proposes a suture for bidirectional communication that acts as a cardio-patch to repair myocardial infarction, that remotely monitors the heart, and can deliver drugs on demand.

Clinical Review of Hypertensive Acute Heart Failure

Although acute heart failure (AHF) is a common disease associated with significant symptoms, morbidity and mortality, the diagnosis, risk stratification and treatment of patients with hypertensive acute heart failure (H-AHF) still remain a challenge in modern medicine. Despite great progress in diagnostic and therapeutic modalities, this disease is still accompanied by a high rate of both in-hospital (from 3.8% to 11%) and one-year (from 20% to 36%) mortality. Considering the high rate of rehospitalization (22% to 30% in the first three months), the treatment of this disease represents a major financial blow to the health system of each country. This disease is characterized by heterogeneity in precipitating factors, clinical presentation, therapeutic modalities and prognosis. Since heart decompensation usually occurs quickly (within a few hours) in patients with H-AHF, establishing a rapid diagnosis is of vital importance. In addition to establishing the diagnosis of heart failure itself, it is necessary to see the underlying cause that led to it, especially if it is de novo heart failure. Given that hypertension is a precipitating factor of AHF and in up to 11% of AHF patients, strict control of arterial blood pressure is necessary until target values are reached in order to prevent the occurrence of H-AHF, which is still accompanied by a high rate of both early and long-term mortality.

Short-Stay Units vs Routine Admission From the Emergency Department in Patients With Acute Heart Failure: The SSU-AHF Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

More than 80% of patients who present to the emergency department (ED) with acute heart failure (AHF) are hospitalized. With more than 1 million annual hospitalizations for AHF in the US, safe and effective alternatives are needed. Care for AHF in short-stay units (SSUs) may be safe and more efficient than hospitalization, especially for lower-risk patients, but randomized clinical trial data are lacking.

Objective

To compare the effectiveness of SSU care vs hospitalization in lower-risk patients with AHF.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This multicenter randomized clinical trial randomly assigned low-risk patients with AHF 1:1 to SSU or hospital admission from the ED. Patients received follow-up at 30 and 90 days post discharge. The study began December 6, 2017, and was completed on July 22, 2021. The data were analyzed between March 27, 2020, and November 11, 2023.

Intervention

Randomized post-ED disposition to less than 24 hours of SSU care vs hospitalization.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The study was designed to detect at least 1-day superiority for a primary outcome of days alive and out of hospital (DAOOH) at 30-day follow-up for 534 participants, with an allowance of 10% participant attrition. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, enrollment was truncated at 194 participants. Before unmasking, the primary outcome was changed from DAOOH to an outcome with adequate statistical power: quality of life as measured by the 12-item Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ-12). The KCCQ-12 scores range from 0 to 100, with higher scores indicating better quality of life.

Results

Of the 193 patients enrolled (1 was found ineligible after randomization), the mean (SD) age was 64.8 (14.8) years, 79 (40.9%) were women, and 114 (59.1%) were men. Baseline characteristics were balanced between arms. The mean (SD) KCCQ-12 summary score between the SSU and hospitalization arms at 30 days was 51.3 (25.7) vs 45.8 (23.8) points, respectively (P = .19). Participants in the SSU arm had 1.6 more DAOOH at 30-day follow-up than those in the hospitalization arm (median [IQR], 26.9 [24.4-28.8] vs 25.4 [22.0-27.7] days; P = .02). Adverse events were uncommon and similar in both arms.

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings show that the SSU strategy was no different than hospitalization with regard to KCCQ-12 score, superior for more DAOOH, and safe for lower-risk patients with AHF. These findings of lower health care utilization with the SSU strategy need to be definitively tested in an adequately powered study.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03302910.

Home Hospital Outcomes for Acute Decompensated Heart Failure and Factors Associated With Escalation of Care

BACKGROUND

Overall outcomes and the escalation rate for home hospital admissions for heart failure (HF) are not known. We report overall outcomes, predict escalation, and describe care provided after escalation among patients admitted to home hospital for HF.

METHODS

Our retrospective analysis included all patients admitted for HF to 2 home hospital programs in Massachusetts between February 2020 and October 2022. Escalation of care was defined as transfer to an inpatient hospital setting (emergency department, inpatient medical unit) for at least 1 overnight stay. Unexpected mortality was defined as mortality excluding those who desired to pass away at home on admission or transitioned to hospice. We performed the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression to predict escalation.

RESULTS

We included 437 hospitalizations; patients had a median age of 80 (interquartile range, 69-89) years, 58.1% were women, and 64.8% were White. Of the cohort, 29.2% had reduced ejection fraction, 50.9% had chronic kidney disease, and 60.6% had atrial fibrillation. Median admission Get With The Guidelines HF score was 39 (interquartile range, 35-45; 1%-5% predicted inpatient mortality). Escalation occurred in 10.3% of hospitalizations. Thirty-day readmission occurred in 15.1%, 90-day readmission occurred in 33.8%, and 6-month mortality occurred in 11.5%. There was no unexpected mortality during home hospitalization. Patients who experienced escalation had significantly longer median length of stays (19 versus 7.5 days, P<0.001). The most common reason for escalation was progressive renal dysfunction (36.2%). A low mean arterial pressure at the time of admission to home hospital was the most significant predictor of escalation in the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression.

CONCLUSIONS

About 1 in 10 home hospital patients with HF required escalation; none had unexpected mortality. Patients requiring escalation had longer length of stays. A low mean arterial pressure at the time of admission to home hospital was the most important predictor of escalation of care in the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression model.

Impact of the MEESSI-AHF tool to guide disposition decision-making in patients with acute heart failure in the emergency department: a before-and-after study

OBJECTIVES

To determine the impact of risk stratification using the MEESSI-AHF (Multiple Estimation of risk based on the Emergency department Spanish Score In patients with acute heart failure) scale to guide disposition decision-making on the outcomes of ED patients with acute heart failure (AHF), and assess the adherence of emergency physicians to risk stratification recommendations.

METHODS

This was a prospective quasi-experimental study (before/after design) conducted in eight Spanish EDs which consecutively enrolled adult patients with AHF. In the pre-implementation stage, the admit/discharge decision was performed entirely based on emergency physician judgement. During the post-implementation phase, emergency physicians were advised to 'discharge' patients classified by the MEESSI-AHF scale as low risk and 'admit' patients classified as increased risk. Nonetheless, the final decision was left to treating emergency physicians. The primary outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were days alive and out of hospital, in-hospital mortality and 30-day post-discharge combined adverse event (ED revisit, hospitalisation or death).

RESULTS

The pre-implementation and post-implementation cohorts included 1589 and 1575 patients, respectively (median age 85 years, 56% females) with similar characteristics, and 30-day all-cause mortality was 9.4% and 9.7%, respectively (post-implementation HR=1.03, 95% CI=0.82 to 1.29). There were no differences in secondary outcomes or in the percentage of patients entirely managed in the ED without hospitalisation (direct discharge from the ED, 23.5% vs 24.4%, OR=1.05, 95% CI=0.89 to 1.24). Adjusted models did not change these results. Emergency physicians followed the MEESSI-AHF-based recommendation on patient disposition in 70.9% of cases (recommendation over-ruling: 29.1%). Physicians were more likely to over-rule the recommendation when 'discharge' was recommended (56.4%; main reason: need for hospitalisation for a second diagnosis) than when 'admit' was recommended (12.8%; main reason: no appreciation of severity of AHF decompensation by emergency physician), with an OR for over-ruling the 'discharge' compared with the 'admit' recommendation of 8.78 (95% CI=6.84 to 11.3).

CONCLUSIONS

Implementing the MEESSI-AHF risk stratification tool in the ED to guide disposition decision-making did not improve patient outcomes.

Establishment and validation of a prediction nomogram for heart failure risk in patients with acute myocardial infarction during hospitalization

BACKGROUND

Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) with consequent heart failure is one of the leading causes of death in humans. The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model to identify heart failure risk in patients with AMI during hospitalization.

METHODS

The data on hospitalized patients with AMI were retrospectively collected and divided randomly into modeling and validation groups at a ratio of 7:3. In the modeling group, the independent risk factors for heart failure during hospitalization were obtained to establish a logistic prediction model, and a nomogram was constructed. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the predictive performance and clinical value. Machine learning models with stacking method were also constructed and compared to logistic model.

RESULTS

A total of 1875 patients with AMI were enrolled in this study, with a heart failure rate of 5.1% during hospitalization. The independent risk factors for heart failure were age, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, troponin T, left ventricular ejection fraction and pro-brain natriuretic peptide levels. The area under the curve (AUC) of the model in modeling group and validation group were 0.829 and 0.846, respectively. The calibration curve showed high prediction accuracy and the DCA curve showed good clinical value. The AUC value of the ensemble model by the stacking method in the validation group were 0.821, comparable to logistic prediction model.

CONCLUSIONS

This model, combining laboratory and clinical factors, has good efficacy in predicting heart failure during hospitalization in AMI patients.

What are the Data for Current Prognostic Tools Used to Determine the Risk of Short-Term Adverse Events in Patients with Acute Heart Failure?

BACKGROUND

Acute heart failure (AHF) is a common condition evaluated in the emergency department (ED). Patients may present with a wide range of signs and symptoms, comorbidities, exacerbating factors, and ability to follow-up. Having a decision tool to objectively assess the risk of near-term events would help guide disposition decisions in these patients.

CLINICAL QUESTION

What are the data for current tools used to determine the short-term risk of adverse events of patients with AHF in the ED setting?

EVIDENCE REVIEW

Studies retrieved included six prospective studies and three retrospective cohort studies that evaluated the following five different risk scores that may predict the risk of serious adverse events in those with AHF: Ottawa Heart Failure Risk Score (OHFRS), Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade (EHMRG), EHMRG at 30 days with addition of an ST depression variable (EHMRG30-ST), Multiple Estimation of Risk Based on the Emergency Department Spanish 40 Score in Patients with AHF Score (MEESSI-AHF), and the Improving Heart Failure Risk Stratification in the ED (STRATIFY) tool.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the available literature, risk scores, including the OHFRS; EHMRG; EHMRG30-ST; MEESSI-AHF; and STRATIFY, can help identify short-term risk of adverse events, but are insufficient in isolation. Clinicians should use these tools in conjunction with other factors, such as the patient's symptom trajectory, hemodynamics, and access to follow-up care.

Association of neighbourhood-level material deprivation with adverse outcomes and processes of care among patients with heart failure in a single-payer healthcare system: A population-based cohort study

AIM

We studied the association between neighbourhood material deprivation, a metric estimating inability to attain basic material needs, with outcomes and processes of care among incident heart failure patients in a universal healthcare system.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In a population-based retrospective study (2007-2019), we examined the association of material deprivation with 1-year all-cause mortality, cause-specific hospitalization, and 90-day processes of care. Using cause-specific hazards regression, we quantified the relative rate of events after multiple covariate adjustment, stratifying by age ≤65 or ≥66 years. Among 395 763 patients (median age 76 [interquartile range 66-84] years, 47% women), there was significant interaction between age and deprivation quintile for mortality/hospitalization outcomes (p ≤ 0.001). Younger residents (age ≤65 years) of the most versus least deprived neighbourhoods had higher hazards of all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR] 1.19, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10-1.29]) and cardiovascular hospitalization (HR 1.29 [95% CI 1.19-1.39]). Older individuals (≥66 years) in the most deprived neighbourhoods had significantly higher hazard of death (HR 1.11 [95% CI 1.08-1.14]) and cardiovascular hospitalization (HR 1.13 [95% CI 1.09-1.18]) compared to the least deprived. The magnitude of the association between deprivation and outcomes was amplified in the younger compared to the older age group. More deprived individuals in both age groups had a lower hazard of cardiology visits and advanced cardiac imaging (all p < 0.001), while the most deprived of younger ages were less likely to undergo implantable cardioverter-defibrillator/cardiac resynchronization therapy-pacemaker implantation (p = 0.023), compared to the least deprived.

CONCLUSION

Patients with newly-diagnosed heart failure residing in the most deprived neighbourhoods had worse outcomes and reduced access to care than those less deprived.

Acute heart failure: current pharmacological treatment and perspectives

Acute heart failure (AHF) represents the most frequent cause of unplanned hospital admission in patients older than 65 years. Symptoms and clinical signs of AHF (e.g. dyspnoea, orthopnoea, oedema, jugular vein distension, and variation of body weight) are mostly related to systemic venous congestion secondary to various mechanisms including extracellular fluids, increased ventricular filling pressures, and/or auto-transfusion of blood from the splanchnic into the pulmonary circulation. Thus, the initial management of AHF patients should be mostly based on decongestive therapies on admission followed, before discharge, by rapid implementation of guideline-directed oral medical therapies for heart failure. The therapeutic management of AHF requires the identification and rapid diagnosis of the disease, the diagnosis of the cause (or triggering factor), the evaluation of severity, the presence of comorbidities, and, finally, the initiation of a rapid treatment. The most recent guidelines from ESC and ACC/AHA/HFSA have provided updated recommendations on AHF management. Recommended pharmacological treatment for AHF includes diuretic therapy aiming to relieve congestion and achieve optimal fluid status, early and rapid initiation of oral therapies before discharge combined with a close follow-up. Non-pharmacological AHF management requires risk stratification in the emergency department and non-invasive ventilation in case of respiratory failure. Vasodilators should be considered as initial therapy in AHF precipitated by hypertension. On the background of recent large randomized clinical trials and international guidelines, this state-of-the-art review describes current pharmacological treatments and potential directions for future research in AHF.

Examining predictors for 6-month mortality and healthcare utilization for patients admitted for heart failure in the acute care setting

BACKGROUND

Acute heart failure (AHF) is a leading cause of mortality and hospitalization. Past studies reported increased healthcare spending in the last year of life in high-income countries, and this has been characterized as inappropriate healthcare resource utilization. The study aimed to examine potentially (in)appropriate healthcare utilization by comparing healthcare utilization patterns across predicted and observed 6-month mortality among patients admitted for HF.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study among patients presenting at the emergency department (ED) of a tertiary hospital with HF as primary diagnosis and admitted after their ED discharge. We used LASSO Cox proportional hazards models to predict 6-month mortality, and estimated healthcare utilization patterns of predicted and observed mortality across inpatient healthcare services.

RESULTS

3946 patients were admitted into the emergency department with a primary diagnosis of HF. From 57 candidate variables, 17 were retained in the final 6- month mortality model (C-statistic 0.66). Patients who died within 6-months of ED admission had longer length of stay (LOS) and less inpatient surgeries than those who survived. Patients with a greater predicted mortality risk were admitted to the ICU more often and had a longer LOS than those with a lower predicted mortality risk.

CONCLUSIONS

There were significant differences in healthcare resource utilization in patients admitted for AHF across predicted versus actual mortality. Lack of information on patients' preferences prevents the estimation of (in)appropriateness. Future studies should account for these considerations to estimate inappropriate healthcare utilization among these patients.

Hospital at Home as a Treatment Strategy for Worsening Heart Failure

Hospital at home (HaH) is an innovative care model that may be particularly suited for heart failure (HF). Outpatient visits and inpatient care have been the 2 traditional settings for HF care, yet may not match the social and medical needs of patients at all times. Alternative models such as HaH may represent an effective and patient-centered option for select patients with worsening HF. To date, limited research in HF and other disease states has supported HaH as being safe and lower cost than traditional inpatient admission. Supporting HaH are new payment structures, such as Medicare's Acute Hospital Care at Home waiver program. In combination with outpatient visits, outpatient intravenous diuretic clinics, inpatient care, and cardiac intensive care, HaH could be a core component of a comprehensive care model with the potential to match resource utilization with the needs of patients across the spectrum of HF severity, and improve patient outcomes.

Outcomes of acute heart failure patients managed in the emergency department

BACKGROUND

Acute heart failure is a serious condition commonly seen in the emergency department (ED). The HEARTRISK6 Scale has been recently developed to identify the risk of poor outcomes but has not been tested. We sought to describe the management and outcomes of ED patients with acute heart failure and to evaluate the potential impact of the HEARTRISK6 Scale.

METHODS

We conducted a health records review of 300 consecutive acute heart failure patients presenting to two tertiary care EDs. Two evaluators abstracted clinical variables, ED management and treatment details, and patient outcomes using the electronic health records platform (EPIC) and attending physicians verified the data. The primary outcome measure was a short-term serious outcome, as shown in Results. In addition, the HEARTRISK6 score was calculated retrospectively.

RESULTS

We included 300 patients with mean age of 78.5 years, 51.0% male, 56.3% arrival by ambulance, and 67.0% admitted to hospital. 25.3% experienced a short-term serious outcome 1) after admission (N = 201): non-invasive ventilation 14.9%, intubation 1.5%, major cardiac procedure 5.0%, myocardial infarction 2.0%, death 8.5%; 2) after ED discharge (N = 99): return to ED 21.2%, death 4.0%. Those initially admitted experienced a much higher proportion of serious outcomes compared to those discharged (29.9% vs. 16.2%). A HEARTRISK6 Scale cut-point score of ≥ 1 would have had a sensitivity of 91.0%, specificity 24.5%, and negative likelihood ratio 0.37 for short-term serious outcomes and suggested hospital admission for 80.7% of cases.

CONCLUSION

There was a large range of severity of illness of acute heart failure patients and a wide variety of treatments were administered in the ED. Both admitted and discharged patients experienced a high proportion of poor outcomes. The HEARTRISK6 Scale showed a high sensitivity for short-term serious outcomes but with the potential to increase hospital admissions. Further validation of the HEARTRISK6 Scale is required before routine clinical use.

Electronic Health Record Embedded Strategies for Improving Care of Patients With Heart Failure

PURPOSE

A majority of clinical decisions use the electronic health record (EHR) and there is an unmet need to use its capability to help providers to make evidence-based decisions that improve care for heart failure patients. These electronic nudges are rooted in the human psychology of decision-making and often target specific cognitive biases. This review outlines the development of novel EHR nudges and specific lessons learned from each experience to inform the development of future interventions.

RECENT FINDINGS

There have been several randomized clinical trials examining the impact of EHR alerts on quality of care for heart failure patients. These interventions have targeted both clinicians and patients. There are features of each trial that inform best practices and future directions for EHR nudges. Recent clinical trials have demonstrated that some EHR alerts can improve care for heart failure patients. These trials utilized default options, involved clinicians in the alert design process, provided actionable recommendations, and aimed to minimize disruptions to typical workflow. Alerts aimed at improving care should be examined in a randomized fashion in order to evaluate their impact on clinician satisfaction and patient care.

Emergency department risk assessment and disposition of acute heart failure patients: existing evidence and ongoing challenges

Heart failure (HF) is a global public health burden, characterized by frequent emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations. Identifying successful strategies to avoid admissions is crucial for the management of acutely decompensated HF, let alone resource utilization. The primary challenge for ED management of patients with acute heart failure (AHF) lies in the identification of those who can be safely discharged home instead of being admitted. This is an elaborate decision, based on limited objective evidence. Thus far, current biomarkers and risk stratification tools have had little impact on ED disposition decision-making. A reliable definition of a low-risk patient profile is warranted in order to accurately identify patients who could be appropriate for early discharge. A brief period of observation can facilitate risk stratification and allow for close monitoring, aggressive treatment, continuous assessment of response to initial therapy and patient education. Lung ultrasound may represent a valid bedside tool to monitor cardiogenic pulmonary oedema and determine the extent of achieved cardiac unloading after treatment in the observation unit setting. Safe discharge mandates multidisciplinary collaboration and thoughtful assessment of socioeconomic and behavioural factors, along with a clear post-discharge plan put forward and a close follow-up in an outpatient setting. Ongoing research to improve ED risk stratification and disposition of AHF patients may mitigate the tremendous public health challenge imposed by the HF epidemic.

Frequency and Impact of Infectious Disease Conditions Diagnosed During Decompensated Heart Failure Hospitalizations in the United States

There are limited data on the frequency of diagnosis of infectious disease and its impact on patients hospitalized with decompensated heart failure. We sought to evaluate the prevalence, types, trends, and outcomes of infectious disease diagnosis in patients admitted with decompensated heart failure. We performed a retrospective cohort study in patients admitted with a primary diagnosis of heart failure using the National Inpatient Sample database from 2009 to 2019. Patients with a length of stay ≥3 days were included. Patients with chronic dialysis, left ventricular assist devices, cardiogenic shock, or solid organ transplantation or who required mechanical ventilation or mechanical circulatory support were excluded. Patients were stratified according to the presence or absence of infectious disease diagnosis. Outcomes of interest were in-hospital mortality, length of stay, and resource utilization. Among the 7,228,521 admissions with a primary diagnosis of heart failure that met the inclusion and exclusion criteria, an infectious disease diagnosis was reported in 1,806,514 (24.9%). Infectious disease diagnosis was more frequent in patients who were female, older, and White, and who had higher baseline co-morbidity. Since 2014, there has been a steady decrease in infectious conditions in patients admitted with a primary diagnosis of heart failure (p for trend <0.01). After propensity match analysis was performed, patients with infectious disease diagnosis had a longer length of stay (6.9 vs 5.7 days, p <0.001) and higher cost ($14,305 vs $11,760, p <0.001), were less likely to be discharged home (35.3% vs 44.7%, p <0.001), and had higher in-hospital mortality (2.6% vs 1.6%, p <0.001). In conclusion, approximately 1 in 4 patients admitted with primary heart failure will be diagnosed with an infectious condition. The presence of an infectious disease diagnosis is associated with increased morbidity and mortality.

Trial of an Intervention to Improve Acute Heart Failure Outcomes

BACKGROUND

Patients with acute heart failure are frequently or systematically hospitalized, often because the risk of adverse events is uncertain and the options for rapid follow-up are inadequate. Whether the use of a strategy to support clinicians in making decisions about discharging or admitting patients, coupled with rapid follow-up in an outpatient clinic, would affect outcomes remains uncertain.

METHODS

In a stepped-wedge, cluster-randomized trial conducted in Ontario, Canada, we randomly assigned 10 hospitals to staggered start dates for one-way crossover from the control phase (usual care) to the intervention phase, which involved the use of a point-of-care algorithm to stratify patients with acute heart failure according to the risk of death. During the intervention phase, low-risk patients were discharged early (in ≤3 days) and received standardized outpatient care, and high-risk patients were admitted to the hospital. The coprimary outcomes were a composite of death from any cause or hospitalization for cardiovascular causes within 30 days after presentation and the composite outcome within 20 months.

RESULTS

A total of 5452 patients were enrolled in the trial (2972 during the control phase and 2480 during the intervention phase). Within 30 days, death from any cause or hospitalization for cardiovascular causes occurred in 301 patients (12.1%) who were enrolled during the intervention phase and in 430 patients (14.5%) who were enrolled during the control phase (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.78 to 0.99; P = 0.04). Within 20 months, the cumulative incidence of primary-outcome events was 54.4% (95% CI, 48.6 to 59.9) among patients who were enrolled during the intervention phase and 56.2% (95% CI, 54.2 to 58.1) among patients who were enrolled during the control phase (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.92 to 0.99). Fewer than six deaths or hospitalizations for any cause occurred in low- or intermediate-risk patients before the first outpatient visit within 30 days after discharge.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with acute heart failure who were seeking emergency care, the use of a hospital-based strategy to support clinical decision making and rapid follow-up led to a lower risk of the composite of death from any cause or hospitalization for cardiovascular causes within 30 days than usual care. (Funded by the Ontario SPOR Support Unit and others; COACH ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02674438.).

Evaluating Social Determinants of Health Variables in Advanced Analytic and Artificial Intelligence Models for Cardiovascular Disease Risk and Outcomes: A Targeted Review

Introduction/Purpose

Predictive models incorporating relevant clinical and social features can provide meaningful insights into complex interrelated mechanisms of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and progression and the influence of environmental exposures on adverse outcomes. The purpose of this targeted review (2018-2019) was to examine the extent to which present-day advanced analytics, artificial intelligence, and machine learning models include relevant variables to address potential biases that inform care, treatment, resource allocation, and management of patients with CVD.

Methods

PubMed literature was searched using the prespecified inclusion and exclusion criteria to identify and critically evaluate primary studies published in English that reported on predictive models for CVD, associated risks, progression, and outcomes in the general adult population in North America. Studies were then assessed for inclusion of relevant social variables in the model construction. Two independent reviewers screened articles for eligibility. Primary and secondary independent reviewers extracted information from each full-text article for analysis. Disagreements were resolved with a third reviewer and iterative screening rounds to establish consensus. Cohen's kappa was used to determine interrater reliability.

Results

The review yielded 533 unique records where 35 met the inclusion criteria. Studies used advanced statistical and machine learning methods to predict CVD risk (10, 29%), mortality (19, 54%), survival (7, 20%), complication (10, 29%), disease progression (6, 17%), functional outcomes (4, 11%), and disposition (2, 6%). Most studies incorporated age (34, 97%), sex (34, 97%), comorbid conditions (32, 91%), and behavioral risk factor (28, 80%) variables. Race or ethnicity (23, 66%) and social variables, such as education (3, 9%) were less frequently observed.

Conclusions

Predictive models should adjust for race and social predictor variables, where relevant, to improve model accuracy and to inform more equitable interventions and decision making.

Retrospective validation of acute heart failure risk stratification in the emergency department

BACKGROUND

Heart Failure (HF) is a primary diagnosis for hospital admission from the Emergency Department (ED), although not all patients require hospitalization. The Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade (EHMRG) estimates 7-day mortality in patients with acute HF in ED settings, but further validation is needed in the United States (US).

OBJECTIVES

To validate EHMRG scores by risk-stratifying patients with acute HF in a large tertiary healthcare center in the US and analyze outcome measures to determine if EHMRG risk scores safely identify low-risk groups that may be discharged or managed in ED observation units (EDOUs).

METHODS

A retrospective cohort analysis of 304 patients with acute HF presenting to an ED at a large, tertiary healthcare center was completed. EHMRG scores were calculated to stratify patients according to published thresholds. Mortality and major adverse cardiac event (MACE) rates were analyzed.

RESULTS

No deaths occurred in very low and low-risk EHMRG groups at 7 days post discharge. 30-day mortality was significantly less in the lower risk groups (3.1%) when compared to all other patients (11.1%). MACE rates at 30 days in the very low risk group (15%) were significantly less when compared to all other patients (31.3%). Hospitalizations occurred in 23.4% of patients in lower risk groups.

CONCLUSIONS

ED risk stratification with EHMRG differentiates high-risk patients requiring hospitalization from lower risk patients who can be safely managed in alternative settings with good outcomes. Data supports improved pathways for patients with acute HF during a time of high hospital volumes.

Point-of-care echocardiography of the right heart improves acute heart failure risk stratification for low-risk patients: The REED-AHF prospective study

OBJECTIVES

Validated acute heart failure (AHF) clinical decision instruments (CDI) insufficiently identify low-risk patients meriting consideration of outpatient treatment. While pilot data show that tricuspid annulus plane systolic excursion (TAPSE) is associated with adverse events, no AHF CDI currently incorporates point-of-care echocardiography (POCecho). We evaluated whether TAPSE adds incremental risk stratification value to an existing CDI.

METHODS

Prospectively enrolled patients at two urban-academic EDs had POCechos obtained before or <1 h after first intravenous diuresis, positive pressure ventilation, and/or nitroglycerin. STEMI and cardiogenic shock were excluded. AHF diagnosis was adjudicated by double-blind expert review. TAPSE, with an a priori cutoff of ≥17 mm, was our primary measure. Secondary measures included eight additional right heart and six left heart POCecho parameters. STRATIFY is a validated CDI predicting 30-day death/cardiopulmonary resuscitation, mechanical cardiac support, intubation, new/emergent dialysis, and acute myocardial infarction or coronary revascularization in ED AHF patients. Full (STRATIFY + POCecho variable) and reduced (STRATIFY alone) logistic regression models were fit to calculate adjusted odds ratios (aOR), category-free net reclassification index (NRI_cont ), ΔSensitivity (NRI_events ), and ΔSpecificity (NRI_nonevents ). Random forest assessed variable importance. To benchmark risk prediction to standard of care, ΔSensitivity and ΔSpecificity were evaluated at risk thresholds more conservative/lower than the actual outcome rate in discharged patients.

RESULTS

A total of 84/120 enrolled patients met inclusion and diagnostic adjudication criteria. Nineteen percent experiencing the primary outcome had higher STRATIFY scores compared to those event free (233 vs. 212, p = 0.009). Five right heart (TAPSE, TAPSE/PASP, TAPSE/RVDD, RV-FAC, fwRVLS) and no left heart measures improved prediction (p < 0.05) adjusted for STRATIFY. Right heart measures also had higher variable importance. TAPSE ≥ 17 mm plus STRATIFY improved prediction versus STRATIFY alone (aOR 0.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.06-0.91; NRI_cont  0.71, 95% CI 0.22-1.19), and specificity improved by 6%-32% (p < 0.05) at risk thresholds more conservative than the standard-of-care benchmark without missing any additional events.

CONCLUSIONS

TAPSE increased detection of low-risk AHF patients, after use of a validated CDI, at risk thresholds more conservative than standard of care.

Barriers and Opportunities Regarding Implementation of a Machine Learning-Based Acute Heart Failure Risk Stratification Tool in the Emergency Department

Hospital admissions for patients with acute heart failure (AHF) remain high. There is an opportunity to improve alignment between patient risk and admission decision. We recently developed a machine learning (ML)-based model that stratifies emergency department (ED) patients with AHF based on predicted risk of a 30-day severe adverse event. Prior to deploying the algorithm and paired clinical decision support, we sought to understand barriers and opportunities regarding successful implementation. We conducted semi-structured interviews with eight front-line ED providers and surveyed 67 ED providers. Audio-recorded interviews were transcribed and analyzed using thematic analysis, and we had a 65% response rate to the survey. Providers wanted decision support to be streamlined into workflows with minimal disruptions. Most providers wanted assistance primarily with ED disposition decisions, and secondarily with medical management and post-discharge follow-up care. Receiving feedback on patient outcomes after risk tool use was seen as an opportunity to increase acceptance, and few providers (<10%) had significant hesitations with using an ML-based tool after education on its use. Engagement with key front-line users on optimal design of the algorithm and decision support may contribute to broader uptake, acceptance, and adoption of recommendations for clinical decisions.

Evaluation of the HEFESTOS scale to predict outcomes in emergency department acute heart failure patients

The HEFESTOS scale was developed in 14 Spanish primary care centres and validated in 9 primary care centres of other European countries. It showed good performance to predict death/hospitalisation during the first 30 days after an episode of acute heart failure (AHF), with c-statistics of 0.807/0.730 in the derivation/validation cohorts. We evaluated this scale in the emergency department (ED) setting, comparing it to the EHMRG and MEESSI scales in the ED and the EFFECT and GWTG scales in hospitalised patients, to predict 30-day outcomes, including death and hospitalisation. Consecutive AHF patients were enrolled in 34 Spanish EDs in January-February 2016, 2018, and 2019 with variables needed to calculate outcome scores. Thirty-day hospitalisation/death (together and separately) and post-discharge combined adverse event (ED revisit or hospitalisation for AHF or all-cause death) were determined for patients discharged home after ED care. Predictive capacity was assessed by c-statistic with 95% confidence intervals. Of 10,869 patients, 4,044 were included (median age: 83 years, 54% women). The performance of HEFESTOS was modest for 30-day hospitalisation/death, c-statistic=0.656 (0.637-0.675), hospitalisation, 0.650 (0.631-0.669), and death, 0.610 (0.576-0.644). Of 1,034 patients with scores for the 5 scales, HEFESTOS had the numerically highest c-statistic for hospitalisation/death at 30 days, 0.666 (0.627-0.704), vs. MEESSI= 0.650 (0.612-0.687, p=0.51), EFFECT=0.633 (0.595-0.672, p=0.21), GWTG=0.618 (0.578-0.657, p=0.06) and EHMRG=0.617 (0.577-0.704, p=0.07). Similar modest performances were observed for predicting hospitalisation [ranging from HEFESTOS=0.656 (0.618-0.695) to GWTG=0.603 (0.564-0.643)]. Conversely, prediction of 30-day death was good with the MEESSI=0.787 (0.728-845), EFFECT=0.754 (0.691-0.818) and GWTG=0.749 (0.689-0.809) scales, and modest with EHMRG=0.649 (0.581-0.717) and HEFESTOS=0.610 (0.538-0.683). Although the HEFESTOS scale was numerically better for predicting 30-day hospitalisation/death in ED AHF patients, its modest performance precludes routine use. Only 30-day mortality was adequately predicted by some scales, with the MEESSI achieving the best results.

Incremental cost-effectiveness of extracorporeal membranous oxygenation as a bridge to cardiac transplant or left ventricular assist device placement in patients with refractory cardiogenic shock

Objective

Emerging literature has described using venoarterial extracorporeal membranous oxygenation (ECMO) as a bridge to transplant or left ventricular assist device (LVAD) placement. We sought to identify the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of ECMO used as a bridge to cardiac transplant or LVAD.

Methods

Patients with refractory cardiogenic shock who received venoarterial ECMO and were bridged to either cardiac transplant (n = 7) or a HeartMate 3 LVAD (n = 6) placement were included. Markov modeling was used, comparing ECMO bridging with non–ECMO-bridged patients. Cohorts entered the model alive and at every 1-year cycle, were exposed to risk of death, and ran forward for 20 years after transplant or LVAD.

Results

Patients bridged with ECMO to cardiac transplant were stratified as group 1 whereas those bridged with ECMO to LVAD were stratified as group 2. The average ECMO run was 3 days in group 1 versus 11 days in group 2. Among group 1 patients, the ICER was $246,629 but was paired with a longer life expectancy. The ICER of group 2 patients was –$107,088 and was not paired with a longer life expectancy. The average inpatient cost for group 1 was found to be $636,023 versus $769,471 for group 2 patients. The average inpatient costs for patients not bridged to ECMO who received cardiac transplant or LVAD was $538,928 and $325,242, respectively.

Conclusions

Using ECMO to bridge to transplant or LVAD placement is not cost effective. However, patients bridged to transplant are paired with longer life expectancy in contrast to patients bridged to LVAD.

Incidence of Timely Outpatient Follow-Up Care After Emergency Department Encounters for Acute Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Patients who are discharged from the emergency department (ED) after an encounter for acute heart failure are at high risk for return hospitalization. These patients may benefit from timely outpatient follow-up care to reassess volume status, adjust medications, and reinforce self-care strategies. This study examines the incidence of outpatient follow-up care after ED encounters for acute heart failure and describes patient characteristics associated with obtaining timely follow-up care.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using an administrative claims database for a large US commercial insurer, from January 1, 2012 to June 30, 2019. Participants included adult patients discharged from the ED with principal diagnosis of acute heart failure. The primary outcome was obtaining an in-person outpatient clinic visit for heart failure within 30 days. We also examined the competing risk of all-cause hospitalization within 30 days and without an intervening outpatient clinic visit. We estimated competing risk regression models to identify patient characteristics associated with obtaining outpatient follow-up and report cause-specific hazard ratios.

RESULTS

The cohort included 52 732 patients, with mean age of 73.9 years (95% CI, 73.8-74.0) and 27 395 (52.0% [95% CI, 51.5-52.4]) female patients. Within 30 days of the ED encounter, 12 279 (23.2%) patients attended an outpatient clinic visit for heart failure, with 8382 (15.9%) patients hospitalized before they could obtain an outpatient clinic visit. In the adjusted analysis, patients that were younger, women, reporting non-Hispanic Black race, and had fewer previous clinic visits were less likely to obtain outpatient follow-up care.

CONCLUSIONS

Few patients obtain timely outpatient follow-up after ED visits for heart failure, although nearly 20% require hospitalization within 30 days. Improved transitions following discharge from the ED may represent an opportunity to improve outcomes for patients with acute heart failure.

Alerting Clinicians to 1-Year Mortality Risk in Patients Hospitalized With Heart Failure: The REVEAL-HF Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Heart failure is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. The use of risk scores has the potential to improve targeted use of interventions by clinicians that improve patient outcomes, but this hypothesis has not been tested in a randomized trial.

Objective

To evaluate whether prognostic information in heart failure translates into improved decisions about initiation and intensity of treatment, more appropriate end-of-life care, and a subsequent reduction in rates of hospitalization or death.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a pragmatic, multicenter, electronic health record-based, randomized clinical trial across the Yale New Haven Health System, comprising small community hospitals and large tertiary care centers. Patients hospitalized for heart failure who had N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels of greater than 500 pg/mL and received intravenous diuretics within 24 hours of admission were automatically randomly assigned to the alert (intervention) or usual-care groups.

Interventions

The alert group had their risk of 1-year mortality calculated using an algorithm that was derived and validated using similar historic patients in the electronic health record. This estimate, including a categorical risk assessment, was presented to clinicians while they were interacting with a patient's electronic health record.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was a composite of 30-day hospital readmissions and all-cause mortality at 1 year.

Results

Between November 27, 2019, through March 7, 2021, 3124 patients were randomly assigned to the alert (1590 [50.9%]) or usual-care (1534 [49.1%]) group. The alert group had a median (IQR) age of 76.5 (65-86) years, and 796 were female patients (50.1%). Patients from the following race and ethnicity groups were included: 13 Asian (0.8%), 324 Black (20.4%), 136 Hispanic (8.6%), 1448 non-Hispanic (91.1%), 1126 White (70.8%), 6 other ethnicity (0.4%), and 127 other race (8.0%). The usual-care group had a median (IQR) age of 77 (65-86) years, and 788 were female patients (51.4%). Patients from the following race and ethnicity groups were included: 11 Asian (1.4%), 298 Black (19.4%), 162 Hispanic (10.6%), 1359 non-Hispanic (88.6%), 1077 White (70.2%), 13 other ethnicity (0.9%), and 137 other race (8.9%). Median (IQR) NT-proBNP levels were 3826 (1692-8241) pg/mL in the alert group and 3867 (1663-8917) pg/mL in the usual-care group. A total of 284 patients (17.9%) and 270 patients (17.6%) were admitted to the intensive care unit in the alert and usual-care groups, respectively. A total of 367 patients (23.1%) and 359 patients (23.4%) had a left ventricular ejection fraction of 40% or less in the alert and usual-care groups, respectively. The model achieved an area under the curve of 0.74 in the trial population. The primary outcome occurred in 619 patients (38.9%) in the alert group and 603 patients (39.3%) in the usual-care group (P = .89). There were no significant differences between study groups in the prescription of heart failure medications at discharge, the placement of an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator, or referral to palliative care.

Conclusions and Relevance

Provision of 1-year mortality estimates during heart failure hospitalization did not affect hospitalization or mortality, nor did it affect clinical decision-making.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT03845660.

Comparison of machine learning and the regression-based EHMRG model for predicting early mortality in acute heart failure

BACKGROUND

Although risk stratification of patients with acute decompensated heart failure (HF) is important, it is unknown whether machine learning (ML) or conventional statistical models are optimal. We developed ML algorithms to predict 7-day and 30-day mortality in patients with acute HF and compared these with an existing logistic regression model at the same timepoints.

METHODS

Patients presenting to one of 86 hospitals, who were either admitted to hospital or discharged home directly from the emergency department, were randomly selected using stratified random sampling. ML approaches, including neural networks, random forest, XGBoost, and the Lasso, were compared with a validated logistic regression model for discrimination and calibration.

RESULTS

Among 12,608 patients in our analysis, lasso regression (c-statistic 0.774; 95% CI, 0.743, 0.806) performed better than other ML models for 7-day mortality but did not outperform the baseline logistic regression model (0.794; 95% CI, 0.789, 0.800). For 30-day mortality, XGBoost performed better than other ML models (c-statistic 0.759; 95% CI; 0.740, 0.779), but was not significantly better than logistic regression (c-statistic 0.755; 95% CI, 0.750, 0.762). Logistic regression demonstrated better calibration at 7 days (calibration-in-the-large 0.017; 95% CI, -0.657, 0.692, and calibration slope 0.954; 95% CI,0.769, 1.139) and at 30 days (-0.026; 95% CI, -0.374, 0.322 and 0.964; 95% CI, 0.831, 1.098), and best Brier scores, compared to ML approaches.

CONCLUSIONS

Logistic regression was comparable to ML in discrimination, but was superior to ML algorithms in calibration overall. ML algorithms for prognosis should routinely report calibration metrics in addition to discrimination.

Validation and derivation of short-term prognostic risk score in acute decompensated heart failure in China

Background

Few prognostic risk scores (PRSs) have been routinely used in acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). We, therefore, externally validated three published PRSs (3A3B, AHEAD, and OPTIME-CHF) and derived a new PRS to predict the short-term prognosis in ADHF.

Methods

A total of 4550 patients from the Heb-ADHF registry in China were randomly divided into the derivation and validation cohorts (3:2). Discrimination of each PRS was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Logistic regression was exploited to select the predictors and create the new PRS. The Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was used to assess the calibration of the new PRS.

Results

The AUROCs of the 3A3B, AHEAD, and OPTIME-CHF score in the derivation cohort were 0.55 (95% CI 0.53–0.57), 0.54 (95% CI 0.53–0.56), and 0.56 (95% CI 0.54–0.57), respectively. After logistic regression analysis, the new PRS computed as 1 × (diastolic blood pressure < 80 mmHg) + 2 × (lymphocyte > 1.11 × 10⁹/L) + 1 × (creatinine > 80 μmol/L) + 2 × (blood urea nitrogen > 21 mg/dL) + 1 × [BNP 500 to < 1500 pg/mL (NT-proBNP 2500 to < 7500 pg/mL)] or 3 × [BNP ≥ 1500 (NT-proBNP ≥ 7500) pg/mL] + 3 × (QRS fraction of electrocardiogram < 55%) + 4 × (ACEI/ARB not used) + 1 × (rhBNP used), with a better AUROC of 0.67 (95% CI 0.64–0.70) and a good calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow χ² = 3.366, P = 0.186). The results in validation cohort verified these findings.

Conclusions

The short-term prognostic values of 3A3B, AHEAD, and OPTIME-CHF score in ADHF patients were all poor, while the new PRS exhibited potential predictive ability. We demonstrated the QRS fraction of electrocardiogram as a novel predictor for the short-term outcomes of ADHF for the first time. Our findings might help to recognize high-risk ADHF patients.

Role of prehospital point-of-care N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide in acute life-threatening cardiovascular disease

INTRODUCTION

The evidence about the use of natriuretic peptides (NP) to predict mortality in the pre-hospital setting is limited. The main objective of this study is to assess the ability of point-of-care testing (POCT) N-terminal portion of B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) to predict 2-day in-hospital mortality of acute cardiovascular diseases (ACVD).

METHODS

We conducted a multicentric, prospective, observational study in adults with ACVD transferred by ambulance to emergency departments (ED). The primary outcome was 2-day in-hospital mortality. The discrimination capacity of the NT-proBNP was performed through a prediction model trained using a derivation cohort and evaluated by the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic on a validation cohort.

RESULTS

A total of 1006 patients were recruited. The median age was 75 (IQR 63-84) years and 421 (41.85%) were females. The 2-day in-hospital mortality was 5.8% (58 cases). The predictive validity of NT-proBNP, for 2-day mortality reached the following AUC: 0.823 (95%CI: 0.758-0.889, p < 0.001), and the optimal specificity and sensitivity were 73.1 and 82.7. Predictive power of NT-proBNP obtained an AUC 0.549 (95%CI: 0.432-0.865, p 0.215) for acute heart failure, AUC 0.893 (95%CI: 0.617-0.97, p < 0.001) for ischemic heart disease, AUC 0.714 (95%CI: 0.55-0.87, p = 0.0069) for arrhythmia and AUC 0.927 (95%CI: 0.877-0.978, p < 0,001) for syncope.

CONCLUSION

POCT NT-proBNP has proven to be a strong predictor of early mortality in ACVD, showing an excellent predictive capacity in cases of syncope. However, this biomarker does not appear to be useful for predicting outcome in patients with acute heart failure.

Risk adjusted 30-day mortality and serious adverse event rates among a large, multi-center cohort of emergency department patients with acute heart failure

Background

Admission rates for emergency department (ED) patients with acute heart failure (AHF) remain elevated. Use of a risk stratification tool could improve disposition decision making by identifying low-risk patients who may be safe for outpatient management.

Methods

We performed a secondary analysis of a retrospective, multi-center cohort of 26,189 ED patients treated for AHF from January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2018. We applied a 30-day risk model we previously developed and grouped patients into 4 categories (low, low/moderate, moderate, and high) of predicted 30-day risk of a serious adverse event (SAE). SAE consisted of death or cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), intra-aorta balloon pump, endotracheal intubation, renal failure requiring dialysis, or acute coronary syndrome. We measured the 30-day mortality and composite SAE rates among patients by risk category according to ED disposition: direct discharge, discharge after observation, and hospital admission.

Results

The observed 30-day mortality and total SAE rates were less than 1% and 2%, respectively, among 25% of patients in the low and low/moderate risk groups. These rates did not vary significantly by ED disposition. An additional 23% of patients were moderate risk and experienced an approximate 2% 30-day mortality rate.

Conclusion

Use of a risk stratification tool could help identify lower risk AHF patients who may be appropriate for ED discharge. These findings will help inform prospective testing to determine how this risk tool can augment ED decision making.

Hemodynamic profiles by non-invasive monitoring of cardiac index and vascular tone in acute heart failure patients in the emergency department: External validation and clinical outcomes

Background

Non-invasive finger-cuff monitors measuring cardiac index and vascular tone (SVRI) classify emergency department (ED) patients with acute heart failure (AHF) into three otherwise-indistinguishable subgroups. Our goals were to validate these “hemodynamic profiles” in an external cohort and assess their association with clinical outcomes.

Methods

AHF patients (n = 257) from five EDs were prospectively enrolled in the validation cohort (VC). Cardiac index and SVRI were measured with a ClearSight finger-cuff monitor (formerly NexFin, Edwards Lifesciences) as in a previous study (derivation cohort, DC, n = 127). A control cohort (CC, n = 127) of ED patients with sepsis was drawn from the same study as the DC. K-means cluster analysis previously derived two-dimensional (cardiac index and SVRI) hemodynamic profiles in the DC and CC (k = 3 profiles each). The VC was subgrouped de novo into three analogous profiles by unsupervised K-means consensus clustering. PERMANOVA tested whether VC profiles 1–3 differed from profiles 1–3 in the DC and CC, by multivariate group composition of cardiac index and vascular tone.

Profiles in the VC were compared by a primary outcome of 90-day mortality and a 30-day ranked composite secondary outcome (death, mechanical cardiac support, intubation, new/emergent dialysis, coronary intervention/surgery) as time-to-event (survival analysis) and binary events (odds ratio, OR). Descriptive statistics were used to compare profiles by two validated risk scores for the primary outcome, and one validated score for the secondary outcome.

Results

The VC had median age 60 years (interquartile range {49–67}), and was 45% (n = 116) female. Multivariate profile composition by cardiac index and vascular tone differed significantly between VC profiles 1–3 and CC profiles 1–3 (p = 0.001, R² = 0.159). A difference was not detected between profiles in the VC vs. the DC (p = 0.59, R² = 0.016).

VC profile 3 had worse 90-day survival than profiles 1 or 2 (HR = 4.8, 95%CI 1.4–17.1). The ranked secondary outcome was more likely in profile 1 (OR = 10.0, 1.2–81.2) and profile 3 (12.8, 1.7–97.9) compared to profile 2. Diabetes prevalence and blood urea nitrogen were lower in the high-risk profile 3 (p<0.05). No significant differences between profiles were observed for other clinical variables or the 3 clinical risk scores.

Conclusions

Hemodynamic profiles in ED patients with AHF, by non-invasive finger-cuff monitoring of cardiac index and vascular tone, were replicated de novo in an external cohort. Profiles showed significantly different risks of clinically-important adverse patient outcomes.

Emergency Heart failure Mortality Risk Grade may help to reduce heart failure admissions

Introduction

Hospital admissions for heart failure (HF) are frequent and pose a heavy burden on health care resources. Currently, the decision to hospitalise is based on clinical judgement rather than on prognostic risk stratification. The Emergency Heart failure Mortality Risk Grade (EHMRG) was recently developed to identify high-risk HF patients in the emergency department (ED).

Objective

To assess the ability of the EHMRG to predict 30-day mortality in Dutch HF patients visiting the ED and to evaluate whether the EHMRG could help to reduce the number of hospital admissions for decompensated HF.

Methods

Patients visiting the ED for decompensated HF were included. The decision to hospitalise or discharge was based on clinical judgement. The EHMRG was calculated retrospectively. Based on their EHMRG, patients were stratified as very low risk, low risk, intermediate risk, high risk and very high risk.

Results

In 227 patients (age 73 ± 12 years, 69% male) 30-day mortality was 11%. Mortality differed significantly among the EHMRG risk groups at 7‑day (p = 0.012) and 30-day follow-up (p < 0.01). Based on clinical judgement, 76% of patients were hospitalised. If decision-making had been based on EHMRG, the hospitalisation rate could have been reduced to 66% (p < 0.01), particularly by reducing hospitalisations in patients at low risk of death. Mortality in discharged patients, whether the decision was based on EHMRG or clinical judgement, was 0%.

Conclusion

The EHMRG accurately differentiates between high- and low-risk decompensated HF patients visiting the ED, making it a promising tool to safely reduce the number of HF admissions.

Supplementary Information

The online version of this article (10.1007/s12471-022-01661-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Improving the EHMRG Prognostic Evaluation of Acute Heart Failure with TAPSE/PASp: A Sequential Approach

The Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade (EHMRG) can predict short-term mortality in patients admitted for acute heart failure (AHF) in the emergency department (ED). This paper aimed to evaluate if TAPSE/PASp, an echocardiographic marker of ventricular desynchronization, can improve in-hospital death prediction in patients at moderate-to-high risk, according to EHMRG score classification. From 1 January 2018 to 30 December 2019, we retrospectively enrolled all the consecutive subjects admitted to our Internal Medicine Department for AHF from the ED. We performed bedside echocardiography within the first 24 h of admission. We evaluated EHMRG and NYHA in the ED, days of admission in Internal Medicine, and in-hospital mortality. We assessed cutoffs with ROC curve analysis and survival with Kaplan–Meier and Cox regression. We obtained a cohort of 439 subjects; 10.3% underwent in-hospital death. Patients with normal TAPSE/PASp in EHMRG Classes 4, 5a, and 5b had higher survival rates (100%, 100%, and 94.3%, respectively), while subjects with pathologic TAPSE/PASp had lower survival rates (81.8%, 78.3%, and 43.4%, respectively) (p < 0.0001, log-rank test). TAPSE/PASp, an echocardiographic marker of ventricular desynchronization, can further stratify the risk of in-hospital death evaluated by EHMRG.

Using fractional polynomials and restricted cubic splines to model non-proportional hazards or time-varying covariate effects in the Cox regression model

The Cox proportional hazards model is used extensively in clinical and epidemiological research. A key assumption of this model is that of proportional hazards. A variable satisfies the proportional hazards assumption if the effect of that variable on the hazard function is constant over time. When the proportional hazards assumption is violated for a given variable, a common approach is to modify the model so that the regression coefficient associated with the given variable is assumed to be a linear function of time (or of log‐time), rather than being constant or fixed. However, this is an unnecessarily restrictive assumption. We describe two different methods to allow a regression coefficient, and thus the hazard ratio, in a Cox model to vary as a flexible function of time. These methods use either fractional polynomials or restricted cubic splines to model the log‐hazard ratio as a function of time. We illustrate the utility of these methods using data on 12 705 patients who presented to a hospital emergency department with a primary diagnosis of heart failure. We used a Cox model to assess the association between elevated cardiac troponin at presentation and the hazard of death after adjustment for an extensive set of covariates. SAS code for implementing the restricted cubic spline approach is provided, while an existing Stata function allows for the use of fractional polynomials.

Association between prehospital arterial hypercapnia and mortality in acute heart failure: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Acute Heart Failure (AHF) is a potentially lethal pathology and is often encountered in the prehospital setting. Although an association between prehospital arterial hypercapnia in AHF patients and admission in high-dependency and intensive care units has been previously described, there is little data to support an association between prehospital arterial hypercapnia and mortality in this population.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study based on electronically recorded prehospital medical files. All adult patients with AHF were included. Records lacking arterial blood gas data were excluded. Other exclusion criteria included the presence of a potentially confounding diagnosis, prehospital cardiac arrest, and inter-hospital transfers. Hypercapnia was defined as a PaCO2 higher than 6.0 kPa. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality, and secondary outcomes were 7-day mortality and emergency room length of stay (ER LOS). Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were used.

RESULTS

We included 225 patients in the analysis. Prehospital hypercapnia was found in 132 (58.7%) patients. In-hospital mortality was higher in patients with hypercapnia (17.4% [23/132] versus 6.5% [6/93], p = 0.016), with a crude odds-ratio of 3.06 (95%CI 1.19-7.85). After adjustment for pre-specified covariates, the adjusted OR was 3.18 (95%CI 1.22-8.26). The overall 7-day mortality was also higher in hypercapnic patients (13.6% versus 5.5%, p = 0.044), and ER LOS was shorter in this population (5.6 h versus 7.1 h, p = 0.018).

CONCLUSION

Prehospital hypercapnia is associated with an increase in in-hospital and 7-day mortality in patient with AHF.

Prognosis of acute heart failure based on clinical data of congestion

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

This work aims to assess whether symptoms/signs of congestion in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) evaluated in hospital emergency departments (HED) allows for predicting short-term progress.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study group comprised consecutive patients diagnosed with AHF in 45 HED from EAHFE Registry. We collected clinical variables of systemic congestion (edema in the lower extremities, jugular vein distention, hepatomegaly) and pulmonary congestion (dyspnea on exertion, paroxysmal nocturnal dyspnea, orthopnea, and pulmonary crackles) and analysed their individual and group association with all-cause 30-day of mortality crudely and adjusted for differences between groups.

RESULTS

We analysed 18,120 patients (median = 83 years, interquartile range [IQR] = 76-88; women = 55.7%). Of them, 44.6% had > 3 congestive symptoms/signs. Individually, the 30-day adjusted risk of death increased 14% for jugular vein distention (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.14, 95% confidence interval [95%CI] = 1.01-1.28) and 96% for dyspnea on exertion (HR = 1.96, 95% CI = 1.55-2.49). Assessed jointly, the risk progressively increased with the number of symptoms/signs present; compared to patients without symptoms/signs of congestion, the risk increased by 109%, 123 %, and 156% in patients with 1-2, 3-5, and 6-7 symptoms/signs, respectively. These associations did not show interaction with the final disposition of the patient after their emergency care (discharge/hospitalization) with the exception of edema in the lower extremities, which had a better prognosis in discharged patients (HR = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.49-0.89) than hospitalised patients (HR = 1.01, 95% CI = 0.65-1.57; interaction p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The presence of a greater number of congestive symptoms/signs was associated with greater all-cause 30-day mortality. Individually, jugular vein distention and dyspnea on exertion were associated with higher short-term mortality.

Rationale and design of the comparison of outcomes and access to care for heart failure (COACH) trial: A stepped wedge cluster randomized trial

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) is an ambulatory care sensitive condition and a leading reason for emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations. Improved decision-making and care may enhance safety and efficiency for patients presenting to the ED with acute HF.

OBJECTIVES

We will evaluate an intervention comprised of 2 complementary components: (1) the Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade simultaneous 7- and 30-day (EHMRG30-ST) risk scores, which will inform admission-discharge decisions, and (2) a rapid outpatient follow-up (RAPID-HF) clinic for low-to-intermediate risk patients on cardiovascular readmissions or death.

STUDY DESIGN

Stepped wedge cluster randomized trial with cross-sectional measurement at 10 acute care hospitals in Ontario, Canada. Patients presenting during control and intervention periods are eligible if they have a primary ED diagnosis of HF. In the intervention periods, access to the EHMRG30-ST web calculator will become available to hospitals' internet protocol (IP) addresses, and referral to the RAPID-HF clinic will be facilitated by a study nurse navigator. Patients with a high risk EHMRG30-ST score will be admitted to hospital. The RAPID-HF clinic will accept referrals for patients: (1) with low risk 7- and 30-day EHMRG30-ST scores who are discharged directly from the ED, or (2) intermediate risk patients with hospital length of stay < 72 hours. The RAPID-HF clinic, staffed by a nurse-clinician and cardiologist, will provide care during the 30-day transition after hospital separation.

CONCLUSION

This trial will determine whether novel risk stratification coupled with rapid ambulatory care achieves better outcomes than conventional decision-making and care for patients with HF.

Disposition of acute decompensated heart failure from the emergency department: An evidence-based review

INTRODUCTION

Acute heart failure (HF) exacerbation is a serious and common condition seen in the Emergency Department (ED) that has significant morbidity and mortality. There are multiple clinical decision tools that Emergency Physicians (EPs) can use to reach an appropriate evidence-based disposition for these patients.

OBJECTIVE

This narrative review is an evidence-based discussion of clinical decision-making tools aimed to assist EPs risk stratify patients with AHF and determine disposition.

DISCUSSION

Risk stratification in patients with AHF exacerbation presenting to the ED is paramount in reaching an appropriate disposition decision. High risk features include hypotension, hypoxemia, elevated brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and/or troponin, elevated creatinine, and hyponatremia. Patients who require continuous vasoactive infusions, respiratory support, or are initially treatment-resistant generally require intensive care unit admission. In most instances, new-onset AHF patients should be admitted for further evaluation. Other AHF patients in the ED can be risk stratified with the Ottawa HF Risk Score (OHFRS), the Multiple Estimation of Risk Based on Spanish Emergency Department Score (MEESSI), or the Emergency HF Mortality Risk Grade (EHFMRG). These tools take various factors into account such as mode of arrival to the ED, vital signs, laboratory values like troponin and pro-BNP, and clinical course. If used appropriately, these scores can predict patients at low risk for adverse outcomes.

CONCLUSION

This article discusses evidence-based disposition of patients in acute decompensated HF presenting to the ED. Knowledge of these factors and risk tools can assist emergency clinicians in determining appropriate disposition of patients with HF.

Early invasive coronary angiography and acute ischaemic heart failure outcomes

Aims 

While myocardial ischaemia plays a major role in the pathogenesis of heart failure (HF), the indications for coronary angiography during acute HF are not established. We determined the association of early coronary angiography during acute HF hospitalization with 2-year mortality, cardiovascular death, HF readmissions, and coronary revascularization.

Methods and results 

In a two-stage sampling process, we identified acute HF patients who presented to 70 emergency departments in Ontario (April 2010 to March 2013) and determined whether they underwent early coronary angiography within 14 days after presentation using administrative databases. After clinical record review, we defined a cohort with acute ischaemic HF as patients with at least one factor suggesting underlying ischaemic heart disease, including previous myocardial infarction, troponin elevation, or angina on presentation. We oversampled patients undergoing angiography. We used inverse-probability-of-treatment weighting (IPTW) to adjust for baseline differences. Of 7239 patients with acute HF, 2994 met inclusion criteria [median age 75 (interquartile range 65–83) years; 40.9% women]. Early angiography was performed in 1567 patients (52.3%) and was associated with lower all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 0.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.61–0.90, P = 0.002], cardiovascular death (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.56–0.93, P = 0.012), and HF readmissions (HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.71–0.99, P = 0.042) after IPTW. Those undergoing early angiography experienced higher rates of percutaneous coronary intervention (HR 2.58, 95% CI 1.73–3.86, P < 0.001) and coronary artery bypass grafting (HR 2.94, 95% CI 1.75–4.93, P < 0.001) within 2 years.

Conclusions 

Early coronary angiography was associated with lower all-cause mortality, cardiovascular death, HF readmissions, and higher rates of coronary revascularization in acute HF patients with possible ischaemia.

Acute heart failure in elderly patients: a review of invasive and non-invasive management

Acute heart failure (AHF) is a major cause of unplanned hospitalisations in the elderly and is associated with high mortality. Its prevalence has grown in the last years due to population aging and longer life expectancy of chronic heart failure patients. Although international societies have provided guidelines for the management of AHF in the general population, scientific evidence for geriatric patients is often lacking, as these are underrepresented in clinical trials. Elderly have a different risk profile with more comorbidities, disability, and frailty, leading to increased morbidity, longer recovery time, higher readmission rates, and higher mortality. Furthermore, therapeutic options are often limited, due to unfeasibility of invasive strategies, mechanical circulatory support and cardiac transplantation. Thus, the in-hospital management of AHF should be tailored to each patient's clinical situation, cardiopulmonary condition and geriatric assessment. Palliative care should be considered in some cases, in order to avoid unnecessary diagnostics and/or treatments. After discharge, a strict follow-up through outpatient clinic or telemedicine is can improve quality of life and reduce rehospitalisation rates. The aim of this review is to offer an insight on current literature and provide a clinically oriented, patient-tailored approach regarding assessment, treatment and follow-up of elderly patients admitted for AHF.