Evaluation of the Modified Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation Scoring System for Prediction of Mortality in Patients Admitted to an Emergency Department

Objective

To evaluate the ability of the Modified Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (M-APACHE II) scoring system for the prediction of mortality in patients admitted to a tertiary emergency department in Iran.

Methods

During the study period, all patients aged >12 years who had been admitted to the emergency department of a tertiary hospital in Tehran, Iran were enrolled in the study. Traumatic and poisoned patients and those who died immediately after arriving at the emergency room were excluded. Using the M-APACHE II, risk of mortality was calculated for each patient. Finally, expected and observed mortalities were compared and the accuracy of M-APACHE II for prediction of mortality was determined using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis.

Results

During the study period, 389 cases including 236 males (60.7%) were enrolled into the study. The mean age of the patients was 60.6±19.4 years (range 14 to 98 years). 117 patients died (30%) while the M-APACHE II predicted 129 deaths. The greatest discrepancy between observed and expected deaths occurred at M-APACHE II scores ≥21. The constructed area under the ROC curve basng on predicted and observed death was 0.938 (95% confidence interval 0.915-0.961).

Conclusion

M-APACHE II is an accurate scoring system for predicting mortality in patients admitted to the emergency department. However, further studies are needed to confirm our findings.

[Validation of APACHE II and SOFA scores in 2 cohorts of patients with suspected infection and sepsis, not admitted to critical care units]

OBJECTIVE

To validate the APACHE II and SOFA scores in patients with suspected infection in clinical settings other than intensive care units.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A secondary analysis was performed on 2,530 adult patients participating in 2 cohort studies, with suspected infection as admission diagnosis within the first 24 h of hospitalization. The performance of both scoring systems was studied in order to set calibration and discrimination, respectively, on the outcomes such as mortality, admission to Intensive Care Unit, development of septic shock, or multiple organ dysfunctions.

RESULTS

The AUC-ROC values for mortality at discharge and on day 28 in the first cohort were around 0.50 for the SOFA and APACHE II scores; whereas for the second cohort the discrimination value was around 0.70. Calibration of both scoring systems for primary outcomes, according to Hosmer-Lemeshow test, showed p>.05 in the first cohort; while in the second cohort calibration it only showed a p>.05 in the case of the SOFA for mortality at hospital discharge.

CONCLUSION

This validation study of SOFA and APACHE II scores in patients with suspected infection in-hospital units other than the Intensive Care Unit, showed no consistent performance for calibration and discrimination. Its application in emergency and in-hospital patients is limited.