Methodological issues in the use of composite endpoints in clinical trials: examples from the HIV field

A systematic review and meta-analysis assessing antiretroviral therapy for treatment-experienced HIV adult patients using an optimized background therapy approach: is there evidence enough for a standardized third-line strategy?

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) has identified the need for evidence on third-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) for adults living with HIV/AIDS, given that some controversy remains as to the best combinations of ART for experienced HIV-1-infected patients. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to (i) assess the efficacy of third-line therapy for adults with HIV/AIDS based on randomized controlled trials (RCT) that adopted the "new antiretroviral (ARV) + optimized background therapy (OBT)" approach and (ii) address the key issues identified in WHO's guidelines on the use of third-line therapy.

METHODS

MEDLINE, EMBASE, LILACS, ISI Web of Science, SCOPUS, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched for RCTs assessing third-line ARV therapy that used an OBT approach between 1966 and 2015. Data was extracted using an Excel-structured datasheet based on the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) recommendations. The primary outcome of this meta-analysis was the proportion of patients reaching undetectable HIV RNA levels (< 50 copies/mL) at 48 weeks of follow-up. Included studies were evaluated using the Cochrane's Risk of Bias assessment tool. Summarized evidence was rated according to the GRADE approach.

RESULTS

Eighteen trials assessing 9 new ARV + OBT combinations defined as third-line HIV therapy provided the efficacy data: 7 phase IIb trials and 11 phase III trials. Four of the 18 trials provided extension data, thus resulting in 14 trials providing 48-week efficacy data. In the meta-analysis, considering the outcome regarding the proportion of patients with a viral load below 50 copies/ml at 48 weeks, 9 out of 14 trials demonstrated the superiority of the new combination being studied (risk difference = 0.18, 95% CI 0.13-0.23). The same analysis stratified by the number of fully active ARVs demonstrated a risk difference of 0.29 (95% CI 0.12-0.46), 0.28 (95% CI 0.17-0.38) and 0.17 (95% CI 0.10-0.24) respectively from zero, one, and two or more active drugs strata. Nine of the 18 trials were considered to have a high risk of bias.

CONCLUSIONS

Efficacy results demonstrated that the groups of HIV-experienced patients receiving the new ARV + OBT were more likely to achieve viral suppression when compared to the control groups. However, most of these trials may be at a high risk of bias. Thus, there is still not enough evidence to stipulate which combinations are the most effective for therapeutic regimens that are to be used sequentially due to documented multi-resistance.

Differentiated prevention and care to reduce the risk of HIV acquisition and transmission among female sex workers in Zimbabwe: study protocol for the ‘AMETHIST’ cluster randomised trial

Background

Female sex workers (FSW) in sub-Saharan Africa are disproportionately affected by HIV and are critical to engage in HIV prevention, testing and care services. We describe the design of our evaluation of the ‘AMETHIST’ intervention, nested within a nationally-scaled programme for FSW in Zimbabwe. We hypothesise that the implementation of this intervention will result in a reduction in the risk of HIV transmission within sex work.

Methods

The AMETHIST intervention (Adapted Microplanning to Eliminate Transmission of HIV in Sex Transactions) is a risk-differentiated intervention for FSW, centred around the implementation of microplanning and self-help groups. It is designed to support uptake of, and adherence to, HIV prevention, testing and treatment behaviours among FSW. Twenty-two towns in Zimbabwe were randomised to receive either the Sisters programme (usual care) or the Sisters programme plus AMETHIST. The composite primary outcome is defined as the proportion of all FSW who are at risk of either HIV acquisition (HIV-negative and not fully protected by prevention interventions) or of HIV transmission (HIV-positive, not virally suppressed and not practicing consistent condom use). The outcome will be assessed after 2 years of intervention delivery in a respondent-driven sampling survey (total n = 4400; n = 200 FSW recruited at each site). Primary analysis will use the ‘RDS-II’ method to estimate cluster summaries and will adapt Hayes and Moulton’s ‘2-step’ method produce adjusted effect estimates. An in-depth process evaluation guided by our project trajectory will be undertaken.

Discussion

Innovative pragmatic trials are needed to generate evidence on effectiveness of combination interventions in HIV prevention and treatment in different contexts. We describe the design and analysis of such a study.

Trial registration

Pan African Clinical Trials Registry PACTR202007818077777. Registered on 2 July 2020.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13063-022-06119-w.

Increasing power in the analysis of responder endpoints in rheumatology: a software tutorial

BACKGROUND

Composite responder endpoints feature frequently in rheumatology due to the multifaceted nature of many of these conditions. Current analysis methods used to analyse these endpoints discard much of the data used to classify patients as responders and are therefore highly inefficient, resulting in low power. We highlight a novel augmented methodology that uses more of the information available to improve the precision of reported treatment effects. Since these methods are more challenging to implement, we developed free, user-friendly software available in a web-based interface and as R packages. The software consists of two programs: one that supports the analysis of responder endpoints; the second that facilitates sample size estimation. We demonstrate the use of the software to conduct the analysis with both the augmented and standard analysis method using the MUSE study, a phase IIb trial in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus.

RESULTS

The software outputs similar point estimates with smaller confidence intervals for the odds ratio, risk ratio and risk difference estimators using the augmented approach. The sample size required in each arm for a future trial using the novel approach based on the MUSE data is 50 versus 135 for the standard method, translating to a reduction in required sample size of approximately 63%.

CONCLUSIONS

We encourage trialists to use the software demonstrated to implement the augmented methodology in future studies to improve efficiency.

Virologic Response to Very Early HIV Treatment in Neonates

Factors that influence viral response when antiretroviral therapy (ART) is initiated in neonates are not well characterized. We assessed if there is consistency in predictive factors when operationalizing viral response using different methods. Data were collected from a clinical study in South Africa that started ART in neonates within 14 days of birth (2013–2018). Among 61 infants followed for ≥48 weeks after ART initiation, viral response through 72 weeks was defined by three methods: (1) clinical endpoints (virologic success, rebound, and failure); (2) time to viral suppression, i.e., any viral load (VL: copies/mL) <400, <50, or target not detected (TND) using time-to-event methods; and (3) latent class growth analysis (LCGA) to empirically estimate discrete groups with shared patterns of VL trajectories over time. We investigated the following factors: age at ART initiation, sex, birthweight, preterm birth, mode of delivery, breastfeeding, pre-treatment VL and CD4, maternal ART during pregnancy, and maternal VL and CD4 count. ART was initiated 0–48 h of birth among 57.4% of the infants, 48 h–7 days in 29.5% and 8–14 days in 13.1%. By Method 1, infants were categorized into ‘success’ (54.1%), ‘rebound’ (21.3%), and ‘failure’ (24.6%) for viral response. For Method 2, median time to achieving a VL <400, <50, or TND was 58, 123, and 331 days, respectively. For Method 3, infants were categorized into three trajectories: ‘rapid decline’ (29.5%), ‘slow decline’ (47.5%), and ‘persistently high’ (23.0%). All methods found that higher pre-treatment VL, particularly >100,000, was associated with less favorable viral outcomes. No exposure to maternal ART was associated with a better viral response, while a higher maternal VL was associated with less favorable viral response and higher maternal CD4 was associated with better viral response across all three methods. The LCGA method found that infants who initiated ART 8–14 days had less favorable viral response than those who initiated ART earlier. The other two methods trended in a similar direction. Across three methods to operationalize viral response in the context of early infant treatment, findings of factors associated with viral response were largely consistent, including infant pre-treatment VL, maternal VL, and maternal CD4 count.

Interim monitoring in a treatment strategy trial with a composite primary endpoint

When a clinical trial has a composite endpoint and a comparison of treatment strategies with multiple intervention components, interim data reviews by a data safety and monitoring board (DSMB) can be challenging as the data evolve on multiple fronts. We illustrate with a study in the treatment of Kaposi sarcoma (KS), an HIV-associated cancer with a multi-faceted disease presentation. The study, ACTG-A5264/AMC-067, was a 1:1 randomized trial to compare two strategies: immediate initiation of etoposide with antiretroviral therapy (ART), or ART with delayed etoposide upon disease progression. The outcome was a composite endpoint that included the following events, ordered from worst to best in the following three categories: (1) KS progression at 48 weeks, death, initiation of alternate KS treatment, loss to study follow-up; (2) stable KS; and (3) partial or complete KS response at 48 weeks. We present the interim results on the composite endpoint and the individual components, where components favored different study arms at an interim review. To facilitate interim data monitoring for complex trials, we recommend clear communications between the study team and the DSMB prior to the initiation of the trial on the need for a composite endpoint, the intentions behind the defined strategies, and relative importance of individual components of the composite endpoint. We also recommend flexibility in the timing of data reviews by the DSMB to interpret emerging data in multiple dimensions. Clinicaltrials.govNCT01352117.

Myeloablative Autologous Stem-Cell Transplantation for Severe Scleroderma

BACKGROUND

Despite current therapies, diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (scleroderma) often has a devastating outcome. We compared myeloablative CD34+ selected autologous hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation with immunosuppression by means of 12 monthly infusions of cyclophosphamide in patients with scleroderma.

METHODS

We randomly assigned adults (18 to 69 years of age) with severe scleroderma to undergo myeloablative autologous stem-cell transplantation (36 participants) or to receive cyclophosphamide (39 participants). The primary end point was a global rank composite score comparing participants with each other on the basis of a hierarchy of disease features assessed at 54 months: death, event-free survival (survival without respiratory, renal, or cardiac failure), forced vital capacity, the score on the Disability Index of the Health Assessment Questionnaire, and the modified Rodnan skin score.

RESULTS

In the intention-to-treat population, global rank composite scores at 54 months showed the superiority of transplantation (67% of 1404 pairwise comparisons favored transplantation and 33% favored cyclophosphamide, P=0.01). In the per-protocol population (participants who received a transplant or completed ≥9 doses of cyclophosphamide), the rate of event-free survival at 54 months was 79% in the transplantation group and 50% in the cyclophosphamide group (P=0.02). At 72 months, Kaplan-Meier estimates of event-free survival (74% vs. 47%) and overall survival (86% vs. 51%) also favored transplantation (P=0.03 and 0.02, respectively). A total of 9% of the participants in the transplantation group had initiated disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) by 54 months, as compared with 44% of those in the cyclophosphamide group (P=0.001). Treatment-related mortality in the transplantation group was 3% at 54 months and 6% at 72 months, as compared with 0% in the cyclophosphamide group.

CONCLUSIONS

Myeloablative autologous hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation achieved long-term benefits in patients with scleroderma, including improved event-free and overall survival, at a cost of increased expected toxicity. Rates of treatment-related death and post-transplantation use of DMARDs were lower than those in previous reports of nonmyeloablative transplantation. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the National Institutes of Health; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00114530 .).

Clinical trials and systematic reviews addressing similar interventions for the same condition do not consider similar outcomes to be important: a case study in HIV/AIDS

BACKGROUND

The usefulness of clinical trials and systematic reviews is compromised when they report different outcomes. We compared outcomes in reviews of HIV/AIDS and the trials included in the reviews.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We examined all Cochrane reviews of HIV/AIDS (as of June 2013) that included ≥1 trial and the trials that the reviews included. We compared outcomes within subgroups defined by type of intervention: clinical management, biomedical prevention, behavioral prevention, and health services.

RESULTS

We included 84 reviews that encompassed 524 trials. Although the median number of outcomes per trial (8) and per review (7.5) was similar, the trials reported a considerably greater number of unique outcomes than the reviews (779 vs. 218), ranging from 2.3 times greater (clinical management) to 5.4 times greater (behavioral prevention). High proportions of trial outcomes were not in any review: 68% (clinical management) to 83% (behavioral prevention). Lower proportions of review outcomes were not in any trial: 11% (clinical management) to 39% (health services).

CONCLUSION

Outcomes in trials and reviews are not well aligned for appropriate inclusion of trial results in reviews and meta-analyses. Differences in perspectives, goals, and constraints between trialists and reviewers may explain differences in outcomes they consider important.

Beyond Composite Endpoints Analysis: Semicompeting Risks as an Underutilized Framework for Cancer Research

BACKGROUND

Composite endpoints (CEP), such as progression-free survival, are commonly used in cancer research. Notwithstanding their popularity, however, CEP analyses suffer from a number of drawbacks, especially when death is combined with a nonterminal event (ie, progression or recurrence), exemplifying the semicompeting risks setting. We investigated the semicompeting risks framework as a complementary analysis strategy that avoids certain drawbacks of CEPs.

METHODS

The illness-death model under the semicompeting risks framework was compared with standard analysis approaches: CEP analyses and (separate) univariate analyses for each component endpoint. Data from a previously published phase III randomized clinical trial in metastatic colon cancer including 1419 participants in the N9741 trial (conducted between 1997 and 2003) were used to determine the impact of the loss of information associated with combining multiple endpoints, as well as of ignoring the potentially informative role of death. A simulation study was conducted to further explore these issues.

RESULTS

Failure to account for critical features of semicompeting risks data can lead to potentially severely misleading conclusions. Advantages of semicompeting risks analyses include a clear delineation of treatment effects on both events, the ability to draw conclusions about a patient's joint risk of the two events, and an assessment of the dependence between the two event types.

CONCLUSIONS

Embedding and analyzing component outcomes in the semicompeting risks framework, either as a supplement or alternative to CEP analyses, represents an important, underutilized, and feasible opportunity for cancer research.

An extension of generalized pairwise comparisons for prioritized outcomes in the presence of censoring

Generalized pairwise comparisons have been proposed to permit a comprehensive assessment of several prioritized outcomes between two groups of observations. This procedure estimates Δ, the net chance of a better outcome with treatment than with control by comparing the patients outcomes among all possible pairs taking one patient from the treatment group and one patient from the control group. For time to event outcomes, the standard procedure of generalized pairwise comparisons is analogous to the Gehan’s modification of the Mann-Whitney test which is biased in presence of censored observation and less powerful than Efron’s modification of this test. We adapt Efron’s modification to generalized pairwise comparisons. We show how a pairwise contribution to Δ can be calculated from the estimates of the survival function in the presence of right-censored data. We performed a simulation study to assess the bias, the type I error and the power of the new procedure. The estimate of Δ with the new procedure is only slightly biased even in presence of heavy censoring. We also show how this bias can be corrected when only one time-to-event outcome is analyzed. The new procedure has higher power in most cases compared to the standard procedure.

A systematic review of randomised controlled trials in rheumatoid arthritis: the reporting and handling of missing data in composite outcomes

Background

Most reported outcome measures in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) trials are composite, whose components comprise single measures that are combined into one outcome. The aims of this review were to assess the range of missing data rates in primary composite outcomes and to document the current practice for handling and reporting missing data in published RA trials compared to the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) recommendations.

Methods

A systematic search for randomised controlled trials was conducted for RA trials published between 2008 and 2013 in four rheumatology and four high impact general medical journals.

Results

A total of 51 trials with a composite primary outcome were identified, of which 38 (75 %) used the binary American College of Rheumatology responder index and 13 (25 %) used the Disease Activity Score for 28 joints (DAS28). Forty-four trials (86 %) reported on an intention-to-treat analysis population, while 7 trials (14 %) analysed according to a modified intention-to-treat population. Missing data rates for the primary composite outcome ranged from 2–53 % and were above 30 % in 9 trials, 20–30 % in 11 trials, 10–20 % in 18 trials and below 10 % in 13 trials. Thirty-eight trials (75 %) used non-responder imputation and 10 (20 %) used last observation carried forward to impute missing composite outcome data at the primary time point. The rate of dropout was on average 61 % times higher in the placebo group compared to the treatment group in the 34 placebo controlled trials (relative rate 1.61, 95 % CI: 1.29, 2.02). Thirty-seven trials (73 %) did not report the use of sensitivity analyses to assess the handling of missing data in the primary analysis as recommended by CONSORT guidelines.

Conclusions

This review highlights an improvement in rheumatology trial practice since the revision of CONSORT guidelines, in terms of power calculation and participant’s flow diagram. However, there is a need to improve the handling and reporting of missing composite outcome data and their components in RA trials. In particular, sensitivity analyses need to be more widely used in RA trials because imputation is widespread and generally uses single imputation methods, and in this area the missing data rates are commonly differentially higher in the placebo group.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13063-016-1402-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Achieving the composite endpoint of glycated haemoglobin <7.0%, no weight gain and no hypoglycaemia in the once-weekly dulaglutide AWARD programme

AIM

To compare the effectiveness of dulaglutide 1.5 and 0.75 mg with active comparators and placebo with regard to a composite endpoint of glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), weight and hypoglycaemia, using post hoc analyses.

METHODS

A logistic regression analysis was performed on the intention-to-treat population, using data from the last observation carried forward, and the composite endpoint of HbA1c <7.0% (53 mmol/mol), no weight gain (≤0 kg) and no hypoglycaemia (glucose <3.0 mmol/l or severe hypoglycaemia) after 26 weeks for each trial in the AWARD programme separately.

RESULTS

At 26 weeks, within each study, 37-58% of patients on dulaglutide 1.5 mg, 27-49% of patients on dulaglutide 0.75 mg, and 9-61% of patients on active comparators achieved the composite endpoint. Significantly more patients reached the composite endpoint with dulaglutide 1.5 mg than with metformin, sitagliptin, exenatide twice daily or insulin glargine: odds ratio (OR) 1.5 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.0, 2.2; p < 0.05], OR 4.5 (95% CI 3.0, 6.6; p < 0.001), OR 2.6 (95% CI 1.8, 3.7; p < 0.001) and OR 7.4 (95% CI 4.4, 12.6; p < 0.001), respectively, with no difference between dulaglutide 1.5 mg and liraglutide 1.8 mg. In addition, significantly more patients reached the composite endpoint with dulaglutide 0.75 mg than with sitagliptin or insulin glargine: OR 3.3 (95% CI 2.2, 4.8; p < 0.001) and OR 4.5 (95% CI 2.7, 7.8; p < 0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Dulaglutide is an effective treatment option, resulting in a similar or greater proportion of patients reaching the HbA1c target of <7.0% (53 mmol/mol), without weight gain or hypoglycaemia compared with active comparators.

Ritonavir-boosted darunavir combined with raltegravir or tenofovir-emtricitabine in antiretroviral-naive adults infected with HIV-1: 96 week results from the NEAT001/ANRS143 randomised non-inferiority trial

BACKGROUND

Standard first-line antiretroviral therapy for HIV-1 infection includes two nucleoside or nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NtRTIs), but these drugs have limitations. We assessed the 96 week efficacy and safety of an NtRTI-sparing regimen.

METHODS

Between August, 2010, and September, 2011, we enrolled treatment-naive adults into this randomised, open-label, non-inferiority trial in treatment-naive adults in 15 European countries. The composite primary outcome was change to randomised treatment before week 32 because of insufficient virological response, no virological response by week 32, HIV-1 RNA concentration 50 copies per mL or higher at any time after week 32; death from any cause; any new or recurrent AIDS event; or any serious non-AIDS event. Patients were randomised in a 1:1 ratio to receive oral treatment with 400 mg raltegravir twice daily plus 800 mg darunavir and 100 mg ritonavir once daily (NtRTI-sparing regimen) or tenofovir-emtricitabine in a 245 mg and 200 mg fixed-dose combination once daily, plus 800 mg darunavir and 100 mg ritonavir once daily (standard regimen). This trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01066962.

FINDINGS

Of 805 patients enrolled, 401 received the NtRTI-sparing regimen and 404 the standard regimen, with median follow-up of 123 weeks (IQR 112-133). Treatment failure was seen in 77 (19%) in the NtRTI-sparing group and 61 (15%) in the standard group. Kaplan-Meier estimated proportions of treatment failure by week 96 were 17·8% and 13·8%, respectively (difference 4·0%, 95% CI -0·8 to 8·8). The frequency of serious or treatment-modifying adverse events were similar (10·2 vs 8·3 per 100 person-years and 3·9 vs 4·2 per 100 person-years, respectively).

INTERPRETATION

Our NtRTI-sparing regimen was non-inferior to standard treatment and represents a treatment option for patients with CD4 cell counts higher than 200 cells per μL.

FUNDING

European Union Sixth Framework Programme, Inserm-ANRS, Gilead Sciences, Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Merck Laboratories.

Composite endpoints in trials of type-2 diabetes

Composite endpoints (CEPs) are being used more frequently as outcomes for trials of drugs in type-2 diabetes. We reviewed the literature to determine how CEPs have been used to date in trials of drugs for type-2 diabetes. A systematic search was undertaken on Medline, Embase and Cochrane databases and Clinicaltrials.gov for randomized controlled trials of currently marketed agents including SGLT-2 inhibitors (dapagliflozin), GLP-1 agonists (exenatide, liraglutide) and DPP-4 inhibitors (linagliptin, saxagliptin, sitagliptin and vildagliptin). CEPs used were identified as well as numbers and percentages of patients achieving each. Thirty-six studies were identified that reported results on ≥1 CEP; 15 different CEPs were reported (7 with 2 components, 8 with 3 components). All CEPs addressed goals recommended by the American Diabetes Association (ADA). All included HbA1c<7%; other endpoints measured weight, blood pressure and hypoglycaemic events. Results were obtained for CEPs from 6 months to 2 years. Rates of achieving CEPs decreased with increasing numbers of components and outcomes assessed. CEPs are becoming used as indicators of clinical outcomes in type-2 diabetes trials, but are still not common. More research is required to identify optimal CEPs. Standardization of outcomes and their reporting is needed.

Relationship between hunger, adherence to antiretroviral therapy and plasma HIV RNA suppression among HIV-positive illicit drug users in a Canadian setting

Food insecurity may be a barrier to achieving optimal HIV treatment-related outcomes among illicit drug users. This study therefore, aimed to assess the impact of severe food insecurity, or hunger, on plasma HIV RNA suppression among illicit drug users receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). A cross-sectional Multivariate logistic regression model was used to assess the potential relationship between hunger and plasma HIV RNA suppression. A sample of n = 406 adults was derived from a community-recruited open prospective cohort of HIV-positive illicit drug users, in Vancouver, British Columbia (BC), Canada. A total of 235 (63.7%) reported "being hungry and unable to afford enough food," and 241 (59.4%) had plasma HIV RNA < 50 copies/ml. In unadjusted analyses, self-reported hunger was associated with lower odds of plasma HIV RNA suppression (Odds Ratio = 0.59, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.39-0.90, p = 0.015). In multivariate analyses, this association was no longer significant after controlling for socio-demographic, behavioral, and clinical characteristics, including 95% adherence (Adjusted Odds Ratio [AOR] = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.37-1.10, p = 0.105). Multivariate models stratified by 95% adherence found that the direction and magnitude of this association was not significantly altered by the adherence level. Hunger was common among illicit drug users in this setting. Although, there was an association between hunger and lower likelihood of plasma HIV RNA suppression, this did not persist in adjusted analyses. Further research is warranted to understand the social-structural, policy, and physical factors shaping the HIV outcomes of illicit drug users.

Methodological challenges in the use of hip-specific composite outcomes: linking measurements from hip fracture trials to the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health Framework

INTRODUCTION

The prevalence of hip-specific outcome measures in randomized trials reflects what directs our outcome assessment following a hip fracture. The present study provides an overview on the most commonly-used hip-specific outcome instruments used for postoperative assessment of hip fracture with respect to their covered contents. This can facilitate the selection of appropriate items for specific purposes in clinical as well as research settings.

METHODS

We used the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) model to distinguish concepts within the instrument. All items from the questionnaires were categorized into one of three categories using the ICF linking rules for a standardized approach. The hip-specific composites measures were also compared to other types of prevalent measures: generic and patient-based instruments.

RESULTS

All of the items in the instruments could be mapped to the ICF. We report the highest frequency of ICF activity and participation (71%) within the Harris hip score (HHS) which is similar to the frequency of ICF content found in the generic measures (82%). Hip-specific composites focused mostly on walking and moving long and short distances, while in patient-reported measures there was a concentration on the concept of sensation of pain and pain in body parts.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

The prevalent use of the HHS, over the other hip-specific instruments, could be attributed to its likeness in concept to other generic measures. The dominance of the ICF category of activity and participation reflects what is important to clinicians treating a hip fracture. Composite scores remain problematic as they cut across different ICF concepts. As long as the popularity of composite scoring systems continues, an overall score may not represent the true patient preferences and concerns in clinical trials. Future studies could apply the results from this study for the creation of an ICF category-based item banking or investigators could operationalize the ICF categories within these candidate measures for specific interventions.

Planning and evaluating clinical trials with composite time-to-first-event endpoints in a competing risk framework

Composite endpoints combine several events of interest within a single variable. These are often time-to-first-event data, which are analyzed via survival analysis techniques. To demonstrate the significance of an overall clinical benefit, it is sufficient to assess the test problem formulated for the composite. However, the effect observed for the composite does not necessarily reflect the effects for the components. Therefore, it would be desirable that the sample size for clinical trials using composite endpoints provides enough power not only to detect a clinically relevant superiority for the composite but also to address the components in an adequate way. The single components of a composite endpoint assessed as time-to-first-event define competing risks. We consider multiple test problems based on the cause-specific hazards of competing events to address the problem of analyzing both a composite endpoint and its components. Thereby, we use sequentially rejective test procedures to reduce the power loss to a minimum. We show how to calculate the sample size for the given multiple test problem by using a simply applicable simulation tool in SAS. Our ideas are illustrated by two clinical study examples.

Clinical use of HIV integrase inhibitors: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Optimal regimen choice of antiretroviral therapy is essential to achieve long-term clinical success. Integrase inhibitors have swiftly been adopted as part of current antiretroviral regimens. The purpose of this study was to review the evidence for integrase inhibitor use in clinical settings.

Methods

MEDLINE and Web-of-Science were screened from April 2006 until November 2012, as were hand-searched scientific meeting proceedings. Multiple reviewers independently screened 1323 citations in duplicate to identify randomized controlled trials, nonrandomized controlled trials and cohort studies on integrase inhibitor use in clinical practice. Independent, duplicate data extraction and quality assessment were conducted.

Results

48 unique studies were included on the use of integrase inhibitors in antiretroviral therapy-naive patients and treatment-experienced patients with either virological failure or switching to integrase inhibitors while virologically suppressed. On the selected studies with comparable outcome measures and indication (n = 16), a meta-analysis was performed based on modified intention-to-treat (mITT), on-treatment (OT) and as-treated (AT) virological outcome data. In therapy-naive patients, favorable odds ratios (OR) for integrase inhibitor-based regimens were observed, (mITT OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.59–0.86). However, integrase inhibitors combined with protease inhibitors only did not result in a significant better virological outcome. Evidence further supported integrase inhibitor use following virological failure (mITT OR 0.27; 95% CI 0.11–0.66), but switching to integrase inhibitors from a high genetic barrier drug during successful treatment was not supported (mITT OR 1.43; 95% CI 0.89–2.31). Integrase inhibitor-based regimens result in similar immunological responses compared to other regimens. A low genetic barrier to drug-resistance development was observed for raltegravir and elvitegravir, but not for dolutegravir.

Conclusion

In first-line therapy, integrase inhibitors are superior to other regimens. Integrase inhibitor use after virological failure is supported as well by the meta-analysis. Careful use is however warranted when replacing a high genetic barrier drug in treatment-experienced patients switching successful treatment.

Fidaxomicin versus vancomycin for Clostridium difficile infection: meta-analysis of pivotal randomized controlled trials

Two recently completed phase 3 trials (003 and 004) showed fidaxomicin to be noninferior to vancomycin for curing Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) and superior for reducing CDI recurrences. In both studies, adults with active CDI were randomized to receive blinded fidaxomicin 200 mg twice daily or vancomycin 125 mg 4 times a day for 10 days. Post hoc exploratory intent-to-treat (ITT) time-to-event analyses were undertaken on the combined study 003 and 004 data, using fixed-effects meta-analysis and Cox regression models. ITT analysis of the combined 003/004 data for 1164 patients showed that fidaxomicin reduced persistent diarrhea, recurrence, or death by 40% (95% confidence interval [CI], 26%–51%; P < .0001) compared with vancomycin through day 40. A 37% (95% CI, 2%–60%; P = .037) reduction in persistent diarrhea or death was evident through day 12 (heterogeneity P = .50 vs 13–40 days), driven by 7 (1.2%) fidaxomicin versus 17 (2.9%) vancomycin deaths at <12 days. Low albumin level, low eosinophil count, and CDI treatment preenrollment were risk factors for persistent diarrhea or death at 12 days, and CDI in the previous 3 months was a risk factor for recurrence (all P < .01). Fidaxomicin has the potential to substantially improve outcomes from CDI.

Considerations for Endpoint Selection When Designing HIV Clinical Trials

Selecting the primary endpoint is one of the most important decisions in designing clinical trials. Many HIV trials are powered for surrogate markers, often virologic suppression. Among 49 recently published Phase 3 or higher randomized HIV trials only 14% were powered for clinical outcomes such as the progression to AIDS, death, or serious non-AIDS diseases. We provide two examples where interventions modified the targeted surrogate markers but failed to provide clinical benefit. We review the use of surrogate and clinical endpoints, discuss the composition of clinical endpoints, and the need for endpoint verification. In HIV-infected individuals with CD4 cell counts above 200 cells/mm(3) serious non-AIDS conditions such as cardiovascular, renal, hepatic diseases and cancer contribute substantially to morbidity and mortality. In this population clinical endpoint trials should be powered for non-AIDS morbidity along with AIDS.

Consensus statement on diagnostic end points for infant tuberculosis vaccine trials

BACKGROUND

 Definition of clinical trial end points for childhood tuberculosis is hindered by lack of a standard case definition. We aimed to identify areas of consensus or debate on potential end points for tuberculosis vaccine trials among human immunodeficiency virus-uninfected children.

METHODS

 Thirty-eight opinion leaders participated in a Consensus Workshop at the Second Global Forum on TB Vaccines (Estonia, 2010). Outcomes were categorized as unanimity, modified consensus, or lack of consensus. Individual reservations were noted.

RESULTS

 Modified consensus was achieved on 3 issues: (1) unsuitability of historical BCG trial end points as sole primary end points for modern infant trials; (2) symptomatic, complicated intrathoracic tuberculosis as an uncommon but clinically relevant disease phenotype; (3) primary complex tuberculosis in younger children as a common, high-risk phenotype, with a high rate of spontaneous resolution. Participants agreed that radiologic diagnosis of intrathoracic tuberculosis would be based primarily on hilar lymphadenopathy. Lack of consensus was noted for (1) significance of isolated culture of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and (2) the need for evidence of prior tuberculosis exposure to support a diagnosis of tuberculosis disease. Reservations were expressed regarding use of interferon-γ release assays and the clinical relevance, and potential for misclassification, of primary complex tuberculosis.

CONCLUSIONS

 The Workshop did not achieve consensus on a single primary end-point definition. Tuberculosis disease phenotypes with optimal diagnostic certainty will be uncommon in the study population. Criteria for composite or multiple end points were identified, and we propose a hierarchy of end-point criteria, based on rate of occurrence, clinical relevance, and diagnostic certainty.