1
|
Møgelmose S, Neels K, Hens N. Incorporating human dynamic populations in models of infectious disease transmission: a systematic review. BMC Infect Dis 2022; 22:862. [DOI: 10.1186/s12879-022-07842-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/06/2022] [Accepted: 11/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Background
An increasing number of infectious disease models consider demographic change in the host population, but the demographic methods and assumptions vary considerably. We carry out a systematic review of the methods and assumptions used to incorporate dynamic populations in infectious disease models.
Methods
We systematically searched PubMed and Web of Science for articles on infectious disease transmission in dynamic host populations. We screened the articles and extracted data in accordance with the guidelines of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA).
Results
We identified 46 articles containing 53 infectious disease models with dynamic populations. Population dynamics were modelled explicitly in 71% of the disease transmission models using cohort-component-based models (CCBMs) or individual-based models (IBMs), while 29% used population prospects as an external input. Fertility and mortality were in most cases age- or age-sex-specific, but several models used crude fertility rates (40%). Households were incorporated in 15% of the models, which were IBMs except for one model using external population prospects. Finally, 17% of the infectious disease models included demographic sensitivity analyses.
Conclusions
We find that most studies model fertility, mortality and migration explicitly. Moreover, population-level modelling was more common than IBMs. Demographic characteristics beyond age and sex are cumbersome to implement in population-level models and were for that reason only incorporated in IBMs. Several IBMs included households and networks, but the granularity of the underlying demographic processes was often similar to that of CCBMs. We describe the implications of the most common assumptions and discuss possible extensions.
Collapse
|
2
|
Hernandez-Suarez G, Saha D, Lodroño K, Boonmahittisut P, Taniwijaya S, Saha A, Badur S, Poovorawan Y. Seroprevalence and incidence of hepatitis A in Southeast Asia: A systematic review. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0258659. [PMID: 34851983 PMCID: PMC8635355 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0258659] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2021] [Accepted: 10/02/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND A previous review on hepatitis A virus (HAV) seroprevalence in 2005 categorized Southeast Asia as a low HAV endemicity region. In 2010, the World Health Organization modified this from low to low/medium endemicity, pointing out that these estimates were based on limited evidence. Since then, there has been no attempt to review HAV epidemiology from this region. We conducted a systematic review of literature to collect information on HAV incidence and seroprevalence in select countries in the Southeast Asian region, specifically, The Association of Southeast Asian Nations over the last 20 years. METHODOLOGY This systematic review was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses guidelines. From the relevant articles, we extracted data and conducted a risk of bias assessment of individual studies. RESULTS The search yielded 22 and 13 publications on HAV seroprevalence and incidence, respectively. Overall, our findings point to a very low HAV endemicity profile in Thailand and Singapore and evidence of a shift towards low HAV endemicity in Indonesia, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Only Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines have existing HAV disease surveillance and reported incidence rates below 1 per 100,000. Several outbreaks with varying magnitude documented in the region provide insights into the evolving epidemiology of HAV in the region. Risk of bias assessment of studies revealed that the individual studies were of low to medium risk. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE The available HAV endemicity profiles in Southeast Asian countries, aside from Thailand, are limited and outdated, but suggest an endemicity shift in the region that is not fully documented yet. These findings highlight the need to update information on HAV epidemiology through strengthening of disease surveillance mechanisms to confirm the shift in HAV endemicity in the region.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Debasish Saha
- GSK, Medical & Clinical Emerging Markets, Wavre, Belgium
| | - Kris Lodroño
- GSK, Medical Affairs Philippines, Manila, The Philippines
| | | | | | | | - Selim Badur
- GSK, Medical & Clinical Emerging Markets, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Yong Poovorawan
- Center of Excellence in Clinical Virology, Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Li R, Cheng X, Schwebel DC, Yang Y, Ning P, Cheng P, Hu G. Disability-adjusted life years associated with population ageing in China, 1990-2017. BMC Geriatr 2021; 21:369. [PMID: 34134664 PMCID: PMC8207592 DOI: 10.1186/s12877-021-02322-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2021] [Accepted: 06/01/2021] [Indexed: 01/15/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Chinese population has aged significantly in the last few decades. Comprehensive health losses including both fatal and non-fatal health outcomes associated with ageing in China have not been detailed. METHODS Based on freely accessible disability adjusted life years (DALYs) estimated by the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2017, we adopted a robust decomposition method that ascribes changes in DALYs in any given country across two time points to changes resulting from three sources: population size, age structure, and age-specific DALYs rate per 100,000 population. Using the method, we calculated DALYs associated with population ageing in China from 1990 to 2017 and examined the counteraction between the effects of DALYs rate change and population ageing. This method extends previous work through attributing the change in DALYs to the three sources. RESULTS Population ageing was associated with 92.8 million DALYs between 1990 and 2017 in China, of which 65.8% (61.1 million) were years of life lost (YLLs). Males had comparatively more DALYs associated with population ageing than females in the study period. The five leading causes of DALYs associated with population ageing between 1990 and 2017 were stroke (23.6 million), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (18.3 million), ischemic heart disease (13.0 million), tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (6.1 million) and liver cancer (5.0 million). Between 1990 and 2017, changes in DALYs associated with age-specific DALY rate reductions far exceeded those related to population ageing (- 196.2 million versus 92.8 million); 57.5% (- 112.8 million) of DALYs were caused by decreases in rates attributed to 84 modifiable risk factors. CONCLUSION Population ageing was associated with growing health loss in China from 1990 to 2017. Despite the recent progress in alleviating health loss associated with population ageing, the government should encourage scientific research on effective and affordable prevention and control strategies and should consider investment in resources to implement strategies nationwide to address the future challenge of population ageing.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ruotong Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha, 410078, China
| | - Xunjie Cheng
- Department of Geriatric Medicine, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, China
| | - David C Schwebel
- Department of Psychology, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA
| | - Yang Yang
- Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.,Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Peishan Ning
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha, 410078, China
| | - Peixia Cheng
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha, 410078, China
| | - Guoqing Hu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha, 410078, China. .,National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Disorders, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, China.
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Lemon SM, Ott JJ, Van Damme P, Shouval D. Type A viral hepatitis: A summary and update on the molecular virology, epidemiology, pathogenesis and prevention. J Hepatol 2017; 68:S0168-8278(17)32278-X. [PMID: 28887164 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhep.2017.08.034] [Citation(s) in RCA: 158] [Impact Index Per Article: 22.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2017] [Revised: 08/30/2017] [Accepted: 08/30/2017] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
Although epidemic jaundice was well known to physicians of antiquity, it is only in recent years that medical science has begun to unravel the origins of hepatitis A virus (HAV) and the unique pathobiology underlying acute hepatitis A in humans. Improvements in sanitation and the successful development of highly efficacious vaccines have markedly reduced the worldwide prevalence and incidence of this enterically-transmitted infection over the past quarter century, yet the virus persists in vulnerable populations and remains a common cause of food-borne disease outbreaks in economically-advantaged societies. Reductions in the prevalence of HAV have led to increases in the median age at which infection occurs, often resulting in more severe disease in affected persons and paradoxical increases in disease burden in some developing nations. Here, we summarize recent advances in the molecular virology of HAV, an atypical member of the Picornaviridae family, survey what is known of the pathogenesis of hepatitis A in humans and the host-pathogen interactions that typify the infection, and review medical and public health aspects of immunisation and disease prevention.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Stanley M Lemon
- Lineberger Comprehensive Cancer Center, and the Departments of Medicine and Microbiology & Immunology, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-7292, USA.
| | - Jördis J Ott
- Department of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research, Braunschweig, Germany; Hannover Medical School, Hannover, Germany.
| | - Pierre Van Damme
- Centre for the Evaluation of Vaccination, Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute, Antwerp University, Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Daniel Shouval
- Liver Unit, Institute for Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Hadassah-Hebrew University Hospital, P.O.Box 12000, Jerusalem 91120, Israel
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Abstract
The age-associated increased susceptibility to infectious disease would suggest that vaccination should be a route to promote healthy aging and keep our seniors autonomous and independent. While vaccination represents a cost-effective and efficient strategy at community level, the ability of the immune system to mount a protective immune response is still unpredictable at the level of the individual. Thus, at a similar age, some individuals, including the elderly, might still be 'good' responders while some other, even younger, would definitely fail to mount a protective response. In this review, the current burden of vaccine-preventable diseases in the aging and aged population will be detailed with the aim to identify the ideal vaccine candidates over the age of 50 years. This article will conclude with potential strategies to reduce, as best as possible, this burden and the imperative need to overcome barriers in extending current vaccine coverage towards to a lifelong vaccine schedule.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Pierre-Olivier Lang
- Translational Medicine Research group, Cranfield Health, Cranfield University, Cranfield, England,
| | | |
Collapse
|
6
|
Bouwknegt M, van Pelt W, Havelaar AH. Scoping the impact of changes in population age-structure on the future burden of foodborne disease in the Netherlands, 2020-2060. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2013; 10:2888-96. [PMID: 23851976 PMCID: PMC3734465 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph10072888] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2013] [Revised: 06/17/2013] [Accepted: 06/28/2013] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
Abstract
A demographic shift towards a larger proportion of elderly in the Dutch population in the coming decades might change foodborne disease incidence and mortality. In the current study we focused on the age-specific changes in the occurrence of foodborne pathogens by combining age-specific demographic forecasts for 10-year periods between 2020 and 2060 with current age-specific infection probabilities for Campylobacter spp., non-typhoidal Salmonella, hepatitis A virus, acquired Toxoplasma gondii and Listeria monocytogenes. Disease incidence rates for the former three pathogens were estimated to change marginally, because increases and decreases in specific age groups cancelled out over all ages. Estimated incidence of reported cases per 100,000 for 2060 mounted to 12 (Salmonella), 51 (Campylobacter), 1.1 (hepatitis A virus) and 2.1 (Toxoplasma). For L. monocytogenes, incidence increased by 45% from 0.41 per 100,000 in 2011 to 0.60 per 100,000. Estimated mortality rates increased two-fold for Salmonella and Campylobacter to 0.5 and 0.7 per 100,000, and increased by 25% for Listeria from 0.06 to 0.08. This straightforward scoping effort does not suggest major changes in incidence and mortality for these food borne pathogens based on changes in de population age-structure as independent factor. Other factors, such as changes in health care systems, social clustering and food processing and preparation, could not be included in the estimates.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Martijn Bouwknegt
- Centre for Zoonoses and Environmental Microbiology, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, P.O. Box 1, Bilthoven NL-3720BA, The Netherlands; E-Mail:
| | - Wilfrid van Pelt
- Centre for Epidemiology and Surveillance of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, P.O. Box 1, Bilthoven NL-3720BA, The Netherlands; E-Mail:
| | - Arie H. Havelaar
- Centre for Zoonoses and Environmental Microbiology, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, P.O. Box 1, Bilthoven NL-3720BA, The Netherlands; E-Mail:
- Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Utrecht NL-3508TD, The Netherlands
| |
Collapse
|