The demographics of human and malaria movement and migration patterns in East Africa

Patterns and predictors of malaria among head porters: a mobile population in Ghana

BACKGROUND

Head porters popularly known as 'Kayayeis in Ghana, face challenges in accessing essential health care services due to the mobile nature of their trade, low formal education, poor settlements, low-income among others. Kayayeis are predominantly females and form part of the mobile population who are at increased risk of malaria infection. Despite their increased risk of malaria, mobile populations are difficult to target for malaria interventions, hence serving as potential drivers of transmission even if malaria in the general population is controlled. The study, therefore, assessed the patterns and predictors of malaria among the Kayayei population in Ghana to inform policy decisions.

METHODS

A mixed methods study was conducted among Head-porters and their leaders in the three main hubs of Head-porters in Ghana; namely Accra, Kumasi, and Tamale. Blood samples were collected from participants and tested for malaria parasites using Rapid Diagnostic Test (RDT). Additionally, data including socio-demographics, malaria knowledge, attitude and practice were collected using a semi-structured questionnaire. Associations between malaria status and participants characteristics were determined by logistic regression (p < 0.05). Thematic analysis was used to analyse transcripts from the key informant interviews.

RESULTS

Out of 754 head porters studied, 10.48% (79) tested positive for malaria. The majority 43.10% (325/754) of the head porters were twenty years and below, and most 67.11% (506/754) had no formal education. Nearly half (50.4%) were not on any health insurance. Receiving malaria education in the past 6 months [AOR = 0.48, (0.26-0.88), p-value 0.02], and having poor knowledge of malaria [AOR = 2.23, (1.26-4.27), p < 0.02], were the factors significantly associated with malaria infection.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of malaria among 'Kayayei's was estimated at 10.46%. A majority of them sleeps outside and in structures without mosquito screens. Receiving malaria education in the past 6 months reduced the odds of malaria infection whilst poor knowledge of malaria increased the odds of malaria infection among the porters. The authors recommend that the National Malaria Elimination Programme and partners should provide long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN) and other outdoor interventions for use by this special group. Designated state institutions should arrange free National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) registration for 'Kayayeis' to narrow the health access gap.

Spatiotemporal analysis of within-country imported malaria in Brazilian municipalities, 2004-2022

Human mobility has challenged malaria elimination efforts and remains difficult to routinely track. In Brazil, administrative records from the Ministry of Health allow monitoring of mobility locally and internationally. Although most imported malaria cases are between municipalities in Brazil, detailed knowledge of patterns of mobility is limited. Here, we address this gap by quantifying and describing patterns of malaria-infected individuals across the Amazon. We used network analysis, spatial clustering, and linear models to quantify and characterize the movement of malaria cases in Brazil between 2004 and 2022. We identified sources and sinks of malaria within and between states. We found that between-state movement of cases has become proportionally more important than within-state, that source clusters persisted longer than sink clusters, that movement of cases into sinks was seasonal while movement out of sources was not, and that importation is an impediment for subnational elimination in many municipalities. We elucidate the vast travel networks of malaria infected individuals that characterize the Amazon region. Uncovering patterns of malaria case mobility is vital for effective microstratification within Brazil. Our results have implications for intervention stratification across Brazil in line with the country's goal of malaria elimination by 2035.

Assessing the risk of malaria local transmission and re-introduction in China from pre-elimination to elimination: A systematic review

Assessing the risk of malaria local transmission and re-introduction is crucial for the preparation and implementation of an effective elimination campaign and the prevention of malaria re-introduction in China. Therefore, this review aims to evaluate the risk factors for malaria local transmission and re-introduction in China over the period of pre-elimination to elimination. Data were obtained from six databases searched for studies that assessed malaria local transmission risk before malaria elimination and re-introduction risk after the achievement of malaria elimination in China since the launch of the NMEP in 2010, employing the keywords "malaria" AND ("transmission" OR "re-introduction") and their synonyms. A total of 8,124 articles were screened and 53 articles describing 55 malaria risk assessment models in China from 2010 to 2023, including 40 models assessing malaria local transmission risk (72.7%) and 15 models assessing malaria re-introduction risk (27.3%). Factors incorporated in the 55 models were extracted and classified into six categories, including environmental and meteorological factors (39/55, 70.9%), historical epidemiology (35/55, 63.6%), vectorial factors (32/55, 58.2%), socio-demographic information (15/26, 53.8%), factors related to surveillance and response capacity (18/55, 32.7%), and population migration aspects (13/55, 23.6%). Environmental and meteorological factors as well as vectorial factors were most commonly incorporated in models assessing malaria local transmission risk (29/40, 72.5% and 21/40, 52.5%) and re-introduction risk (10/15, 66.7% and 11/15, 73.3%). Factors related to surveillance and response capacity and population migration were also important in malaria re-introduction risk models (9/15, 60%, and 6/15, 40.0%). A total of 18 models (18/55, 32.7%) reported the modeling performance. Only six models were validated internally and five models were validated externally. Of 53 incorporated studies, 45 studies had a quality assessment score of seven and above. Environmental and meteorological factors as well as vectorial factors play a significant role in malaria local transmission and re-introduction risk assessment. The factors related to surveillance and response capacity and population migration are more important in assessing malaria re-introduction risk. The internal and external validation of the existing models needs to be strengthened in future studies.

Epidemiology of malaria in Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh within 2017-2020

BACKGROUND

Malaria causes significant morbidity and mortality in tropical and sub-tropical regions, particularly in humanitarian emergencies including refugee camps in malaria endemic areas. An epidemiological investigation was conducted on malaria disease distribution and risk factors in the world's largest refugee settlement, the Rohingya refugee camps on the south-eastern border area of Bangladesh, within 2017-2020.

METHODS

From February 2017 to March 2020, 30,460 febrile patients were tested for malaria using light microscopy and rapid diagnostic tests. Most were self-presenting symptomatic patients and a minority were from door-to-door malaria screening. Diagnostic tests were done by trained medical technologists upon the advice of the concerned physicians in the camps. Test positivity rate (%) and annual parasite incidence were calculated and compared using chi-squared (χ 2) test or odds ratios.

RESULTS

The overall average annual test positivity rate (TPR) was 0.05%. TPR was highest in people who had travelled to the forest in the previous 2 months, at 13.60%. Cases were clustered among male adults aged 15-60 years. There were no cases among children under five years or pregnant women and no deaths from malaria.

CONCLUSION

This study found very few malaria cases among Rohingya refugees with the majority of cases being imported from hilly forested areas, which were thus assumed to act as the reservoir for transmission.

Gaps in mobility data and implications for modelling epidemic spread: A scoping review and simulation study

Reliable estimates of human mobility are important for understanding the spatial spread of infectious diseases and the effective targeting of control measures. However, when modelling infectious disease dynamics, data on human mobility at an appropriate temporal or spatial resolution are not always available, leading to the common use of model-derived mobility proxies. In this study we reviewed the different data sources and mobility models that have been used to characterise human movement in Africa. We then conducted a simulation study to better understand the implications of using human mobility proxies when predicting the spatial spread and dynamics of infectious diseases. We found major gaps in the availability of empirical measures of human mobility in Africa, leading to mobility proxies being used in place of data. Empirical data on subnational mobility were only available for 17/54 countries, and in most instances, these data characterised long-term movement patterns, which were unsuitable for modelling the spread of pathogens with short generation times (time between infection of a case and their infector). Results from our simulation study demonstrated that using mobility proxies can have a substantial impact on the predicted epidemic dynamics, with complex and non-intuitive biases. In particular, the predicted times and order of epidemic invasion, and the time of epidemic peak in different locations can be underestimated or overestimated, depending on the types of proxies used and the country of interest. Our work underscores the need for regularly updated empirical measures of population movement within and between countries to aid the prevention and control of infectious disease outbreaks. At the same time, there is a need to establish an evidence base to help understand which types of mobility data are most appropriate for describing the spread of emerging infectious diseases in different settings.

Characterizing human movement patterns using GPS data loggers in an area of persistent malaria in Zimbabwe along the Mozambique border

BACKGROUND

Human mobility is a driver for the reemergence or resurgence of malaria and has been identified as a source of cross-border transmission. However, movement patterns are difficult to measure in rural areas where malaria risk is high. In countries with malaria elimination goals, it is essential to determine the role of mobility on malaria transmission to implement appropriate interventions.

METHODS

A study was conducted in Mutasa District, Zimbabwe, to investigate human movement patterns in an area of persistent transmission along the Mozambique border. Over 1 year, a convenience sample of 20 participants/month was recruited from active malaria surveillance cohorts to carry an IgotU^® GT-600 global positioning system (GPS) data logger during all daily activities. Consenting participants were tested for malaria at data logger distribution using rapid antigen diagnostic tests and completed a survey questionnaire. GPS data were analyzed using a trajectory analysis tool, and participant movement patterns were characterized throughout the study area and across the border into Mozambique using movement intensity maps, activity space plots, and statistical analyses.

RESULTS

From June 2016-May 2017, 184 participants provided movement tracks encompassing > 350,000 data points and nearly 8000 person-days. Malaria prevalence at logger distribution was 3.7%. Participants traveled a median of 2.8 km/day and spent a median of 4.6 h/day away from home. Movement was widespread within and outside the study area, with participants traveling up to 500 km from their homes. Indices of mobility were higher in the dry season than the rainy season (median km traveled/day = 3.5 vs. 2.2, P = 0.03), among male compared to female participants (median km traveled/day = 3.8 vs. 2.0, P = 0.0008), and among adults compared to adolescents (median total km traveled = 104.6 vs. 59.5, P = 0.05). Half of participants traveled outside the study area, and 30% traveled into Mozambique, including 15 who stayed in Mozambique overnight.

CONCLUSIONS

Study participants in Mutasa District, Zimbabwe, were highly mobile throughout the year. Many participants traveled long distances from home, including overnight trips into Mozambique, with clear implications for malaria control. Interventions targeted at mobile populations and cross-border transmission may be effective in preventing malaria introductions in this region.

Effect of out-of-village working activities on recent malaria exposure in the Peruvian Amazon using parametric g-formula

In the Amazon Region of Peru, occupational activities are important drivers of human mobility and may increase the individual risk of being infected while contributing to increasing malaria community-level transmission. Even though out-of-village working activities and other mobility patterns have been identified as determinants of malaria transmission, no studies have quantified the effect of out-of-village working activities on recent malaria exposure and proposed plausible intervention scenarios. Using two population-based cross-sectional studies in the Loreto Department in Peru, and the parametric g-formula method, we simulated various hypothetical scenarios intervening in out-of-village working activities to reflect their potential health benefits. This study estimated that the standardized mean outcome (malaria seroprevalence) in the unexposed population (no out-of-village workers) was 44.6% (95% CI: 41.7%-47.5%) and 66.7% (95% CI: 61.6%-71.8%) in the exposed population resulting in a risk difference of 22.1% (95% CI: 16.3%-27.9%). However, heterogeneous patterns in the effects of interest were observed between peri-urban and rural areas (Cochran's Q test = 15.5, p < 0.001). Heterogeneous patterns were also observed in scenarios of increased prevalence of out-of-village working activities and restriction scenarios by gender (male vs. female) and age (18 and under vs. 19 and older) that inform possible occupational interventions targetting population subgroups. The findings of this study support the hypothesis that targeting out-of-village workers will considerably benefit current malaria elimination strategies in the Amazon Region. Particularly, males and adult populations that carried out out-of-village working activities in rural areas contribute the most to the malaria seropositivity (recent exposure to the parasite) in the Peruvian Amazon.

Leaving no one behind: targeting mobile and migrant populations with health interventions for disease elimination-a descriptive systematic review

BACKGROUND

Mobile and migrant populations (MMPs) pose a unique challenge to disease elimination campaigns as they are often hard to survey and reach with treatment. While some elimination efforts have had success reaching MMPs, other campaigns are struggling to do so, which may be affecting progress towards disease control and elimination. Therefore, this paper reviews the literature on elimination campaigns targeting MMPs across a selection of elimination diseases-neglected tropical diseases, malaria, trypanosomiasis, polio, smallpox, and rinderpest.

METHODS

Through a systematic review process following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, a three-person review team identified papers from databases, conference records, and citation searches using inclusion/exclusion criteria. Papers were divided into three key outcome domains during the synthetization process: (1) MMP movement patterns in East Africa including reasons for movement and consequences in terms of health outcomes and healthcare access; (2) MMP contribution to the transmission of disease across all geographies; (3) surveillance methods and treatment interventions used to implement programming in MMPs across all geographies. Experts in the field also provided supplemental information and gray literature to support this review.

RESULTS

The review identified 103 records which were descriptively analyzed using the outcome domains. The results indicate that in East Africa, there are various motivations for migration from economic opportunity to political unrest to natural disasters. Regardless of motivation, mobile lifestyles affect health service access such that MMPs in East Africa report barriers in accessing healthcare and have limited health knowledge. Often lower service delivery to these populations has resulted in higher disease prevalence. A minority of articles suggest MMPs do not pose challenges to reaching disease control and elimination thresholds. Finally, the literature highlighted surveillance methods (e.g., using satellite imagery or mobile phone data to track movement, participatory mapping, snowball sampling) and intervention strategies (e.g., integration with animal health campaigns, cross-border coordination, alternative mass drug administration [MDA] methods) to implement health interventions in MMPs.

CONCLUSIONS

Ultimately, the literature reviewed here can inform programmatic decisions as the community attempts to reach these never treated populations.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

The protocol for this manuscript was registered with the International Prospective Registry of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) (No. CRD42021214743).

Gender difference in the incidence of malaria diagnosed at public health facilities in Uganda

BACKGROUND

Routine malaria surveillance data in Africa primarily come from public health facilities reporting to national health management information systems. Although information on gender is routinely collected from patients presenting to these health facilities, stratification of malaria surveillance data by gender is rarely done. This study evaluated gender difference among patients diagnosed with parasitological confirmed malaria at public health facilities in Uganda.

METHODS

This study utilized individual level patient data collected from January 2020 through April 2021 at 12 public health facilities in Uganda and cross-sectional surveys conducted in target areas around these facilities in April 2021. Associations between gender and the incidence of malaria and non-malarial visits captured at the health facilities from patients residing within the target areas were estimated using poisson regression models controlling for seasonality. Associations between gender and data on health-seeking behaviour from the cross-sectional surveys were estimated using poisson regression models controlling for seasonality.

RESULTS

Overall, incidence of malaria diagnosed per 1000 person years was 735 among females and 449 among males (IRR = 1.72, 95% CI 1.68-1.77, p < 0.001), with larger differences among those 15-39 years (IRR = 2.46, 95% CI 2.34-2.58, p < 0.001) and over 39 years (IRR = 2.26, 95% CI 2.05-2.50, p < 0.001) compared to those under 15 years (IRR = 1.46, 95% CI 1.41-1.50, p < 0.001). Female gender was also associated with a higher incidence of visits where malaria was not suspected (IRR = 1.77, 95% CI 1.71-1.83, p < 0.001), with a similar pattern across age strata. These associations were consistent across the 12 individual health centres. From the cross-sectional surveys, females were more likely than males to report fever in the past 2 weeks and seek care at the local health centre (7.5% vs. 4.7%, p = 0.001) with these associations significant for those 15-39 years (RR = 2.49, 95% CI 1.17-5.31, p = 0.018) and over 39 years (RR = 2.56, 95% CI 1.00-6.54, p = 0.049).

CONCLUSIONS

Females disproportionately contribute to the burden of malaria diagnosed at public health facilities in Uganda, especially once they reach childbearing age. Contributing factors included more frequent visits to these facilities independent of malaria and a higher reported risk of seeking care at these facilities for febrile illnesses.

In search of the last malaria cases: ethnographic methods for community and private-sector engagement in malaria elimination in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia

Background

Despite significant strides made in reducing malaria morbidity and mortality in the Greater Mekong Subregion, malaria transmission continues amongst the most ‘hard-to-reach’, such as forest-goers and mobile and migrant populations, who face access obstacles to malaria diagnosis and treatment. As such, regional malaria elimination strategies endeavour to incorporate the private sector and local communities in improving surveillance and detection of the last malaria cases in remote forested areas. The question remains, however, whether such strategies can reach these hard-to-reach populations and effectively reduce their disproportionate burden of malaria. This paper evaluates the strategy of community and private sector engagement in a malaria elimination project in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia.

Methods

Ethnographic research, incorporating in-depth interviews, participant observations with informal discussions, and group discussions were conducted in Bu Gia Map commune, Binh Phuc province of Vietnam; in Phouvong district, Attapeu province of Laos; and, in nine newly established and informal communities in the provinces of Mondul Kiri, Steung Treng, Kratie, Kampong Thom, and Prah Vihear of Cambodia.

Results

Different types of factors limited or enhanced the effectiveness of the participatory approaches in the different settings. In Vietnam, inter-ethnic tensions and sensitivity around forest-work negatively affected local population’s health-seeking behaviour and consequent uptake of malaria testing and treatment. In Laos, the location of the project collaborative pharmacies in the district-centre were a mismatch for reaching hard-to-reach populations in remote villages. In Cambodia, the strategy of recruiting community malaria-workers, elected by the community members, did manage to reach the remote forested areas where people visited or stayed.

Conclusions

‘Hard-to-reach’ populations remain hard to reach without proper research identifying the socio-economic-political environment and the key dynamics determining uptake in involved communities and populations. Solid implementation research with a strong ethnographic component is required to tailor malaria elimination strategies to local contexts.

Analysing human population movement data for malaria control and elimination

BACKGROUND

Human population movement poses a major obstacle to malaria control and elimination. With recent technological advances, a wide variety of data sources and analytical methods have been used to quantify human population movement (HPM) relevant to control and elimination of malaria.

METHODS

The relevant literature and selected studies that had policy implications that could help to design or target malaria control and elimination interventions were reviewed. These studies were categorized according to spatiotemporal scales of human mobility and the main method of analysis.

RESULTS

Evidence gaps exist for tracking routine cross-border HPM and HPM at a regional scale. Few studies accounted for seasonality. Out of twenty included studies, two studies which tracked daily neighbourhood HPM used descriptive analyses as the main method, while the remaining studies used statistical analyses or mathematical modelling.

CONCLUSION

Although studies quantified varying types of human population movement covering different spatial and temporal scales, methodological gaps remain that warrant further studies related to malaria control and elimination.

Prevalence and determinants of anemia among pregnant women in East Africa; A multi-level analysis of recent Demographic and Health Surveys

Introduction

Anemia during pregnancy is a public health problem that leads to different life-threatening complications and poor pregnancy outcomes. So far, the evidence is scarce on pooled prevalence and determinants of anemia during pregnancy in East Africa for integrated intervention. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the prevalence and determinants of anemia among pregnant women in eastern Africa using recent Demographic and Health Surveys.

Method

Secondary data analysis was conducted using data from recent Demographic and Health Survey datasets from 10 East African countries. A total of 8583 (weighted sample) pregnant women were included in the analysis. The multi-level mixed-effects generalized linear model (Poisson regression with robust error variance) was fitted to identify determinants of anemia. Finally, the adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) with 95% CI and random effects for the multilevel generalized linear mixed-effects model was reported.

Results

In this study, the overall prevalence of anemia among pregnant women was 41.82% (95% CI: 40.78, 42.87) with a large difference between specific countries which ranged from 23.36% in Rwanda to 57.10% in Tanzania. In the multi-level analysis, teenage pregnant women (aPR = 1.22;95%CI:1.02, 1.40), unmarried women (aPR = 1.14; 95% CI;1.02,1.28), pregnant women who had unimproved toilet facility (aPR = 1.17;95%CI:1.06,1.27), and those women from countries with high illiteracy level (aPR = 1.12;95%CI; 1.07,1.18) had a higher prevalence of anemia during pregnancy.

Conclusion

Anemia is still a public health problem in East Africa. Therefore, enabling the households to have improved toilet facilities by strengthening the existing health extension program, reducing teenage pregnancy, and improving the community literacy level is vital to reduce the prevalence of anemia during pregnancy in East Africa.

Residual Malaria: Limitations of Current Vector Control Strategies to Eliminate Transmission in Residual Foci

The transmission of Plasmodium parasites in residual foci is currently a major roadblock for malaria elimination. Human activities and behavior, along with outdoor biting mosquitoes with opportunistic feeding preferences are the main causes of the inefficacy of the main vector control interventions, long lasting insecticide-impregnated nets and insecticide residual spraying. Several strategies to abate or repel outdoor biting mosquito vectors are currently being researched, but the impact of insecticide resistance on the efficacy of these and current indoor-applied insecticides requires further assessment. Understanding the human, ecological and vector factors, determining transmission in residual foci is necessary for the design and implementation of novel control strategies. Vector control alone is insufficient without adequate epidemiological surveillance and prompt treatment of malaria cases, the participation of endemic communities in prevention and control is required. In addition, malaria control programs should optimize their structure and organization, and their coordination with other government sectors.

Intraday Variation Mapping of Population Age Structure via Urban-Functional-Region-Based Scaling

The spatial distribution of the population is uneven for various reasons, such as urban-rural differences and geographical conditions differences. As the basic element of the natural structure of the population, the age structure composition of populations also varies considerably across the world. Obtaining accurate and spatiotemporal population age structure maps is crucial for calculating population size at risk, analyzing populations mobility patterns, or calculating health and development indicators. During the past decades, many population maps in the form of administrative units and grids have been produced. However, these population maps are limited by the lack of information on the change of population distribution within a day and the age structure of the population. Urban functional regions (UFRs) are closely related to population mobility patterns, which can provide information about population variation intraday. Focusing on the area within the Beijing Fifth Ring Road, the political and economic center of Beijing, we showed how to use the temporal scaling factors obtained by analyzing the population survey sampling data and population dasymetric maps in different categories of UFRs to realize the intraday variation mapping of elderly individuals and children. The population dasymetric maps were generated on the basis of covariates related to population. In this article, 50 covariates were calculated from remote sensing data and geospatial data. However, not all covariates are associate with population distribution. In order to improve the accuracy of dasymetric maps and reduce the cost of mapping, it is necessary to select the optimal subset for the dasymetric model of elderly and children. The random forest recursive feature elimination (RF-RFE) algorithm was introduced to obtain the optimal subset of different age groups of people and generate the population dasymetric model in this article, as well as to screen out the optimal subset with 38 covariates and 26 covariates for the dasymetric models of the elderly and children, respectively. An accurate UFR identification method combining point of interest (POI) data and OpenStreetMap (OSM) road network data is also introduced in this article. The overall accuracy of the identification results of UFRs was 70.97%, which is quite accurate. The intraday variation maps of population age structure on weekdays and weekends were made within the Beijing Fifth Ring Road. Accuracy evaluation based on sampling data found that the overall accuracy was relatively high—R2 for each time period was higher than 0.5 and root mean square error (RMSE) was less than 0.05. On weekdays in particular, R2 for each time period was higher than 0.61 and RMSE was less than 0.02.

High variation expected in the pace and burden of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks across sub-Saharan Africa

A surprising feature of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to date is the low burdens reported in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries relative to other global regions. Potential explanations (e.g., warmer environments1, younger populations2-4) have yet to be framed within a comprehensive analysis accounting for factors that may offset the effects of climate and demography. Here, we synthesize factors hypothesized to shape the pace of this pandemic and its burden as it moves across SSA, encompassing demographic, comorbidity, climatic, healthcare and intervention capacity, and human mobility dimensions of risk. We find large scale diversity in probable drivers, such that outcomes are likely to be highly variable among SSA countries. While simulation shows that extensive climatic variation among SSA population centers has little effect on early outbreak trajectories, heterogeneity in connectivity is likely to play a large role in shaping the pace of viral spread. The prolonged, asynchronous outbreaks expected in weakly connected settings may result in extended stress to health systems. In addition, the observed variability in comorbidities and access to care will likely modulate the severity of infection: We show that even small shifts in the infection fatality ratio towards younger ages, which are likely in high risk settings, can eliminate the protective effect of younger populations. We highlight countries with elevated risk of 'slow pace', high burden outbreaks. Empirical data on the spatial extent of outbreaks within SSA countries, their patterns in severity over age, and the relationship between epidemic pace and health system disruptions are urgently needed to guide efforts to mitigate the high burden scenarios explored here.

Mapping the Structure of Social Vulnerability Systems for Malaria in East Africa

Millions of people fall ill with malaria every year—most of them are located in sub-Saharan Africa. The weight of the burden of malaria on a society is determined by a complex interplay of environmental and social factors, including poverty, awareness and education, among others. A substantial share of the affected population is characterized by a general lack of anticipation and coping capacities, which renders them particularly vulnerable to the disease and its adverse side effects. This work aims at identifying interdependencies and feedback mechanisms in the malaria social vulnerability system and their variations in space by combining concepts, methods and tools from Climate Change Adaptation, Spatial Analysis, and Statistics and System Dynamics. The developed workflow is applied to a selected set of social, economic and biological vulnerability indicators covering five East-African Nations. As the study areas’ local conditions vary in a multitude of aspects, the social vulnerability system is assumed to vary accordingly throughout space. The study areas’ spatial entities were therefore aggregated into three system-regions using correlation-based clustering. Their respective correlation structures are displayed as Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs). While the three resulting CLDs do not necessarily display causal relations (as the set of social vulnerability indicators are likely linked through third variables and parts of the data are proxies), they give a good overview of the data, can be used as basis for discussions in participatory settings and can potentially enhance the understanding the malaria vulnerability system.

A seven-year surveillance of epidemiology of malaria reveals travel and gender are the key drivers of dispersion of drug resistant genotypes in Kenya

Malaria drug resistance is a global public health concern. Though parasite mutations have been associated with resistance, other factors could influence the resistance. A robust surveillance system is required to monitor and help contain the resistance. This study established the role of travel and gender in dispersion of chloroquine resistant genotypes in malaria epidemic zones in Kenya. A total of 1,776 individuals presenting with uncomplicated malaria at hospitals selected from four malaria transmission zones in Kenya between 2008 and 2014 were enrolled in a prospective surveillance study assessing the epidemiology of malaria drug resistance patterns. Demographic and clinical information per individual was obtained using a structured questionnaire. Further, 2 mL of blood was collected for malaria diagnosis, parasitemia quantification and molecular analysis. DNA extracted from dried blood spots collected from each of the individuals was genotyped for polymorphisms in Plasmodium falciparum chloroquine transporter gene (Pfcrt 76), Plasmodium falciparum multidrug resistant gene 1 (Pfmdr1 86 and Pfmdr1 184) regions that are putative drug resistance genes using both conventional polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and real-time PCR. The molecular and demographic data was analyzed using Stata version 13 (College Station, TX: StataCorp LP) while mapping of cases at the selected geographic zones was done in QGIS version 2.18. Chloroquine resistant (CQR) genotypes across gender revealed an association with chloroquine resistance by both univariate model (p = 0.027) and by multivariate model (p = 0.025), female as reference group in both models. Prior treatment with antimalarial drugs within the last 6 weeks before enrollment was associated with carriage of CQR genotype by multivariate model (p = 0.034). Further, a significant relationship was observed between travel and CQR carriage both by univariate model (p = 0.001) and multivariate model (p = 0.002). These findings suggest that gender and travel are significantly associated with chloroquine resistance. From a gender perspective, males are more likely to harbor resistant strains than females hence involved in strain dispersion. On the other hand, travel underscores the role of transport network in introducing spread of resistant genotypes, bringing in to focus the need to monitor gene flow and establish strategies to minimize the introduction of resistance strains by controlling malaria among frequent transporters.

Mapping the travel patterns of people with malaria in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Spread of malaria and antimalarial resistance through human movement present major threats to current goals to eliminate the disease. Bordering the Greater Mekong Subregion, southeast Bangladesh is a potentially important route of spread to India and beyond, but information on travel patterns in this area are lacking.

METHODS

Using a standardised short survey tool, 2090 patients with malaria were interviewed at 57 study sites in 2015-2016 about their demographics and travel patterns in the preceding 2 months.

RESULTS

Most travel was in the south of the study region between Cox's Bazar district (coastal region) to forested areas in Bandarban (31% by days and 45% by nights), forming a source-sink route. Less than 1% of travel reported was between the north and south forested areas of the study area. Farmers (21%) and students (19%) were the top two occupations recorded, with 67 and 47% reporting travel to the forest respectively. Males aged 25-49 years accounted for 43% of cases visiting forests but only 24% of the study population. Children did not travel. Women, forest dwellers and farmers did not travel beyond union boundaries. Military personnel travelled the furthest especially to remote forested areas.

CONCLUSIONS

The approach demonstrated here provides a framework for identifying key traveller groups and their origins and destinations of travel in combination with knowledge of local epidemiology to inform malaria control and elimination efforts. Working with the NMEP, the findings were used to derive a set of policy recommendations to guide targeting of interventions for elimination.

The potential of pregnant women as a sentinel population for malaria surveillance

Background

With increasing spatial heterogeneity of malaria transmission and a shift of the disease burden towards older children and adults, pregnant women attending antenatal care (ANC) have been proposed as a pragmatic sentinel population for malaria surveillance. However, the representativeness of routine ANC malaria test-positivity and its relationship with prevalence in other population subgroups are yet to be investigated.

Methods

Monthly ANC malaria test-positivity data from all Tanzanian health facilities for January 2014 to May 2016 was compared to prevalence data from the School Malaria Parasitaemia Survey 2015, the Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS) 2015/16, the Malaria Atlas Project 2015, and a Bayesian model fitted to MIS data. Linear regression was used to describe the difference between malaria test-positivity in pregnant women and respective comparison groups as a function of ANC test-positivity and potential covariates.

Results

The relationship between ANC test-positivity and survey prevalence in children follows spatially and biologically meaningful patterns. However, the uncertainty of the relationship was substantial, particularly in areas with high or perennial transmission. In comparison, modelled data estimated higher prevalence in children at low transmission intensities and lower prevalence at higher transmission intensities.

Conclusions

Pregnant women attending ANC are a pragmatic sentinel population to assess heterogeneity and trends in malaria prevalence in Tanzania. Yet, since ANC malaria test-positivity cannot be used to directly predict the prevalence in other population subgroups, complementary community-level measurements remain highly relevant.

Closing in on the Reservoir: Proactive Case Detection in High-Risk Groups as a Strategy to Detect Plasmodium falciparum Asymptomatic Carriers in Cambodia

Background

In the frame of elimination strategies of Plasmodium falciparum (Pf), active case detection has been recommended as complementary approach to the existing passive case detection programs. We trialed a polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based active detection strategy targeting asymptomatic individuals, named proactive case detection (PACD), with the aim of assessing its feasibility, the extra yield of Pf infections, and the at-risk population for Pf carriage status.

Methods

A pilot of PACD was conducted in 3 villages in Chey Saen district (Preah Vihear province, Cambodia), from December 2015 to March 2016. Voluntary screening and treatment, following health promotion sensitization, was used as mobilization strategy.

Results

A total of 2802 persons were tested, representing 54% of the population. PACD (n = 30) and the respective reactive case detection (RACD) (n = 3) identified 33 Pf carriers, approximately twice as many as the Pf infections (n = 17) diagnosed in passive case detection and respective RACD, by health centers and village malaria workers using PCR, in the same villages/period. Final positivity rate was 1.07% (30/2802). People spending nighttime in forests and plantations were found to be at increased risk for Pf infection (odds ratio [OR], 3.4 [95% CI, 1.6-7.2], P = .002 and OR, 2.3 [95% CI, 1.1-4.9], P = .03, respectively).

Conclusions

We demonstrated the usefulness of the PACD component in identifying Pf asymptomatic carriers. Social mobilization and promotion led to good attendance of specific risk groups, identified to be, in the Cambodian context, individuals spending nighttime in forest and plantations.

The use of GPS data loggers to describe the impact of spatio-temporal movement patterns on malaria control in a high-transmission area of northern Zambia

Background

Human movement is a driver of malaria transmission and has implications for sustainable malaria control. However, little research has been done on the impact of fine-scale movement on malaria transmission and control in high-transmission settings. As interest in targeted malaria control increases, evaluations are needed to determine the appropriateness of these strategies in the context of human mobility across a variety of transmission settings.

Methods

A human mobility study was conducted in Nchelenge District, a high-transmission setting in northern Zambia. Over 1 year, 84 participants were recruited from active malaria surveillance cohorts to wear a global positioning system data logger for 1 month during all daily activity. Participants completed a survey questionnaire and underwent malaria testing and treatment at the time of logger distribution and at collection 1 month later. Incident malaria infections were identified using polymerase chain reaction. Participant movement was characterized throughout the study area and across areas targeted for an indoor residual spraying (IRS) intervention. Participant movement patterns were compared using movement intensity maps, activity space plots, and statistical analyses. Malaria risk was characterized across participants using spatial risk maps and time spent away from home during peak vector biting hours.

Results

Movement data were collected from 82 participants, and 63 completed a second study visit. Participants exhibited diverse mobility patterns across the study area, including movement into and out of areas targeted for IRS, potentially mitigating the impact of IRS on parasite prevalence. Movement patterns did not differ significantly by season or age, but male participants traveled longer distances and spent more time away from home. Monthly malaria incidence was 22%, and malaria risk was characterized as high across participants. Participants with incident parasitemia traveled a shorter distance and spent more time away from home during peak biting hours; however, these relationships were not statistically significant, and malaria risk score did not differ by incident parasitemia.

Conclusions

Individual movement patterns in Nchelenge District, Zambia have implications for malaria control, particularly the effectiveness of targeted IRS strategies. Large and fine-scale population mobility patterns should be considered when planning intervention strategies across transmission settings.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12942-019-0183-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Comparison of Micro-Census Results for Magarya Ward, Wurno Local Government Area of Sokoto State, Nigeria, with Other Sources of Denominator Data

Routine immunization coverage in Nigeria is suboptimal. In the northwestern state of Sokoto, an independent population-based survey for 2016 found immunization coverage with the third dose of Pentavalent vaccine to be 3%, whereas administrative coverage in 2016 was reported to be 69%. One possibility driving this large discrepancy is that administrative coverage is calculated using an under-estimated target population. Official population projections from the 2006 Census are based on state-specific standard population growth rates. Immunization target population estimates from other sources have not been independently validated. We conducted a micro-census in Magarya ward, Wurno Local Government Area of Sokoto state to obtain an accurate count of the total population living in the ward, and to compare these results with other sources of denominator data. We developed a precise micro-plan using satellite imagery, and used the navigation tool EpiSample v1 in the field to guide teams to each building, without duplications or omissions. The particular characteristics of the selected ward underscore the importance of using standardized shape files to draw precise boundaries for enumeration micro-plans. While the use of this methodology did not resolve the discrepancy between independent and administrative vaccination coverage rates, a simplified application can better define the target population for routine immunization services and estimate the number of children still unprotected from vaccine-preventable diseases.

Analysis of polymorphisms in the circumsporozoite protein gene of Plasmodium vivax isolates from Henan Province, China

BACKGROUND

Plasmodium vivax malaria has historically been a major source of disease in Henan, China. In the 1970s, the morbidity of malaria was highest in the country. With support from the government and the efforts of healthcare personnel, the reported malaria cases have declined dramatically and a national elimination programme was launched in 2010. To achieve the goal, it is essential to study the diversity of autochthonous malaria and transmission of Plasmodium parasites, which will provide baseline data for disease control and management.

METHODS

Thirty-two P. vivax isolates from Henan province were collected from 2008 to 2011, and circumsporozoite protein (csp) genes were analysed to estimate the genetic diversity of this parasite.

RESULTS

The assessment of csp sequences indicated that all the isolates were the VK210 type, however, none of them was identical to the VK210 strain. The sequences displayed variations in the central region, and eight sub-types were observed. Among the sub-types, HN7 was the most prevalent (37.5%), followed by HN3 (34.4%). A total of 653 repeat units were discovered in 32 Henan isolates. Nucleotide sequences were grouped in 13 unique repeat nucleotide sequence allotypes that coded for 7 different repeated amino acid allotypes. B (GNGAGGQAA) and D (GDRAAGQPA) were more frequent based on the results; they represented 53.9% (352/653) of the total. In comparison to the basic repeat units of VK210, more than 75% of the central repeat units had at least one non-synonymous nucleotide change.

CONCLUSIONS

Recent P. vivax populations in Henan province showed some degree of genetic diversity in csp, with 8 sub-types among 32 samples. Meantime, the results also suggested its relative conserved parasite populations. This could provide interesting baseline data that allow identifying whether potential new cases differ from the parasites already circulating in the area.

Malaria prevalence in Mangaluru city area in the southwestern coastal region of India

Background

Malaria is highly prevalent in many parts of India and the Indian subcontinent. Mangaluru, a city in the southwest coastal region of Karnataka state in India, and surrounding areas are malaria endemic with 10–12 annual parasite index. Despite high endemicity, to-date, very little has been reported on the epidemiology and burden of malaria in this area.

Methods

A cross-sectional surveillance of malaria cases was performed among 900 febrile symptomatic native people (long-time residents) and immigrant labourers (temporary residents) living in Mangaluru city area. During each of dry, rainy, and end of rainy season, blood samples from a group of 300 randomly selected symptomatic people were screened for malaria infection. Data on socio-demographic, literacy, knowledge of malaria, and treatment-seeking behaviour were collected to understand the socio-demographic contributions to malaria menace in this region.

Results

Malaria is prevalent in Mangaluru region throughout the year and Plasmodium vivax is predominant species compared to Plasmodium falciparum. The infection frequency was found to be high during rainy season. Infections were markedly higher in males than females, and in adults aged 16–45 years than both younger and older age groups. Also, malaria incidence was high among immigrants compared to native population. In both groups, infection rate was directly correlated with their literacy level, knowledge on malaria, dwelling environment, and protective measures used. There was also a significant difference in treatment-seeking behaviour between these two groups.

Conclusions

Malaria incidences in Mangaluru region are predominantly localized to certain hotspot areas within the city, where socioeconomically underprivileged and immigrant labourers are densely populated. These areas have inadequate sanitation and constant water stagnation, harbouring high vector density and contributing to high infection incidences. Additionally, people in these areas seldom practice preventive measures such as using bed nets. The high incidences of malaria in adults are due to minimal cloth wearing, and long working hours stretching to late evenings in places with high vector density. Instituting heightened preventive public measures by governments and creating awareness on using preventive protective and environmental hygienic measures through educational programmes may substantially reduce the risk of contracting infections in these areas and spreading to other areas.

Population Movement as a Risk Factor for Malaria Infection in High-Altitude Villages of Tahtay-Maychew District, Tigray, Northern Ethiopia: A Case-Control Study

Key goal and targets of the Ethiopia National Malaria Control Program are to achieve malaria elimination within specific geographical areas with historically low malaria transmission and to reach near-zero malaria transmission in the remaining malarious areas by 2020. However, back and forth population movement between high-transmission and low-transmission area imposes challenge on the success of national malaria control programs. Therefore, examining the effect of human movement and identification of at-risk populations is crucial in an elimination setting. A matched case-control study was conducted among 520 study participants at a community level in low malaria transmission settings in northern Ethiopia. Study participants who received a malaria test were interviewed regarding their recent travel history. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were carried out to determine if the reported travel was related to malaria infection. Younger age (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 3.20, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.73, 5.89) and travel in the previous month (AOR = 11.40, 95% CI: 6.91, 18.82) were statistically significant risk factors for malaria infection. Other statistically significant factors, including lower educational level (AOR = 2.21, 95% CI: 1.26, 3.86) and nonagricultural in occupation (AOR = 2.0, 95% CI: 1.02, 3.94), were also found as risk factors for malaria infection. Generally, travel history was found to be a strong predictor for malaria acquisition in the high-altitude villages. Therefore, besides the existing efforts in endemic areas, targeting those who frequently travel to malarious areas is crucial to reduce malaria infection risks and possibility of local transmissions in high-altitude areas of northern Ethiopia.

Risk assessment of malaria transmission at the border area of China and Myanmar

Background

In order to achieve the goal of malaria elimination, the Chinese government launched the National Malaria Elimination Programme in 2010. However, as a result of increasing cross-border population movements, the risk of imported malaria cases still exists at the border areas of China, resulting in a potential threat of local transmission. The focus of this paper is to assess the Plasmodium vivax incidences in Tengchong, Yunnan Province, at the border areas of China and Myanmar.

Methods

Time series of P. vivax incidences in Tengchong from 2006 to 2010 are collected from the web-based China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, which are further separated into time series of imported and local cases. First, the seasonal and trend decomposition are performed on time series of imported cases using Loess method. Then, the impact of climatic factors on the local transmission of P. vivax is assessed using both linear regression models (LRM) and generalized additive models (GAM). Specifically, the notion of vectorial capacity (VCAP) is used to estimate the transmission potential of P. vivax at different locations, which is calculated based on temperature and rainfall collected from China Meteorological Administration.

Results

Comparing with Ruili County, the seasonal pattern of imported cases in Tengchong is different: Tengchong has only one peak, while Ruili has two peaks during each year. This may be due to the different cross-border behaviors of peoples in two locations. The vectorial capacity together with the imported cases and the average humidity, can well explain the local incidences of P. vivax through both LRM and GAM methods. Moreover, the maximum daily temperature is verified to be more suitable to calculate VCAP than the minimal and average temperature in Tengchong County.

Conclusion

To achieve malaria elimination in China, the assessment results in this paper will provide further guidance in active surveillance and control of malaria at the border areas of China and Myanmar.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40249-017-0322-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Genetic diversity of Plasmodium Vivax revealed by the merozoite surface protein-1 icb5-6 fragment

Background

Plasmodium vivax remains a potential cause of morbidity and mortality for people living in its endemic areas. Understanding the genetic diversity of P. vivax from different regions is valuable for studying population dynamics and tracing the origins of parasites. The PvMSP-1 gene is highly polymorphic and has been used as a marker in many P. vivax population studies. The aim of this study was to investigate the genetic diversity of the PvMSP-1 gene icb5-6 fragment and to provide more genetic polymorphism data for further studies on P. vivax population structure and tracking of the origin of clinical cases.

Methods

Nested PCR and sequencing of the PvMSP-1 icb5-6 marker were performed to obtain the nucleotide sequences of 95 P. vivax isolates collected from Zhejiang province, China. To investigate the genetic diversity of PvMSP-1, the 95 nucleotide sequences of the PvMSP-1 icb5-6 fragment were genotyped and analyzed using DnaSP v5, MEGA software.

Results

The 95 P. vivax isolates collected from Zhejiang province were either indigenous cases or imported cases from different regions around the world. A total of 95 sequences ranging from 390 to 460 bp were obtained. The 95 sequences were genotyped into four allele-types (Sal I, Belem, R-III and R-IV) and 17 unique haplotypes. R-III and Sal I were the predominant allele-types. The haplotype diversity (Hd) and nucleotide diversity (Pi) were estimated to be 0.729 and 0.062, indicating that the PvMSP-1 icb5-6 fragment had the highest level of polymorphism due to frequent recombination processes and single nucleotide polymorphism. The values of dN/dS and Tajima’s D both suggested neutral selection for the PvMSP-1icb5-6 fragment. In addition, a rare recombinant style of R-IV type was identified.

Conclusions

This study presented high genetic diversity in the PvMSP-1 marker among P. vivax strains from around the world. The genetic data is valuable for expanding the polymorphism information on P. vivax, which could be helpful for further study on population dynamics and tracking the origin of P. vivax.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40249-017-0302-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Geographic Resource Allocation Based on Cost Effectiveness: An Application to Malaria Policy

Healthcare services are often provided to a country as a whole, though in many cases the available resources can be more effectively targeted to specific geographically defined populations. In the case of malaria, risk is highly geographically heterogeneous, and many interventions, such as insecticide-treated bed nets and malaria community health workers, can be targeted to populations in a way that maximises impact for the resources available. This paper describes a framework for geographically targeted budget allocation based on the principles of cost-effectiveness analysis and applied to priority setting in malaria control and elimination. The approach can be used with any underlying model able to estimate intervention costs and effects given relevant local data. Efficient geographic targeting of core malaria interventions could significantly increase the impact of the resources available, accelerating progress towards elimination. These methods may also be applicable to priority setting in other disease areas.

Different origin and dispersal of sulfadoxine-resistant Plasmodium falciparum haplotypes between Eastern Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo

Sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine (SP) is still used for malaria control in sub-Saharan Africa; however, widespread resistance is a major concern. This study aimed to determine the dispersal and origin of sulfadoxine resistance lineages in the Democratic Republic of the Congo compared with East African Plasmodium falciparum dihydropteroate synthetase (Pfdhps) haplotypes. The analysis involved 264 isolates collected from patients with uncomplicated malaria from Tanzania, Uganda and DR Congo. Isolates were genotyped for Pfdhps mutations at codons 436, 437, 540, 581 and 613. Three microsatellite loci (0.8, 4.3 and 7.7 kb) flanking the Pfdhps gene were assayed. Evolutionary analysis revealed a shared origin of Pfdhps haplotypes in East Africa, with a distinct population clustering in DR Congo. Furthermore, in Tanzania there was an independent distinct origin of Pfdhps SGEGA resistant haplotype. In Uganda and Tanzania, gene flow patterns contribute to the dispersal and shared origin of parasites carrying double- and triple-mutant Pfdhps haplotypes associated with poor outcomes of intermittent preventive treatment during pregnancy using SP (IPTp-SP). However, the origins of the Pfdhps haplotypes in DR Congo and Eastern Africa sites are different. The genetic structure demonstrated a divergent and distinct population cluster predominated by single-mutant Pfdhps haplotypes at the DR Congo site. This reflects the limited dispersal of double- and triple-mutant Pfdhps haplotypes in DR Congo. This study highlights the current genetic structure and dispersal of high-grade Pfdhps resistant haplotypes, which is important to guide implementation of SP in malaria chemoprevention strategies in the region.

Patterns and determinants of malaria risk in urban and peri-urban areas of Blantyre, Malawi

Background

Although malaria disease in urban and peri-urban areas of sub-Saharan Africa is a growing concern, the epidemiologic patterns and drivers of transmission in these settings remain poorly understood. Factors associated with variation in malaria risk in urban and peri-urban areas were evaluated in this study.

Methods

A health facility-based, age and location-matched, case–control study of children 6–59 months of age was conducted in four urban and two peri-urban health facilities (HF) of Blantyre city, Malawi. Children with fever who sought care from the same HF were tested for malaria parasites by microscopy and PCR. Those testing positive or negative on both were defined as malaria cases or controls, respectively.

Results

A total of 187 cases and 286 controls were studied. In univariate analyses, higher level of education, possession of TV, and electricity in the house were negatively associated with malaria illness; these associations were similar in urban and peri-urban zones. Having travelled in the month before testing was strongly associated with clinical malaria, but only for participants living in the urban zones (OR = 5.1; 95% CI = 1.62, 15.8). Use of long-lasting insecticide nets (LLINs) the previous night was not associated with protection from malaria disease in any setting. In multivariate analyses, electricity in the house, travel within the previous month, and a higher level of education were all associated with decreased odds of malaria disease. Only a limited number of Anopheles mosquitoes were found by aspiration inside the households in the peri-urban areas, and none was collected from the urban households.

Conclusion

Travel was the main factor influencing the incidence of malaria illness among residents of urban Blantyre compared with peri-urban areas. Identification and understanding of key mobile demographic groups, their behaviours, and the pattern of parasite dispersal is critical to the design of more targeted interventions for the urban setting.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1623-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Seasonal Population Movements and the Surveillance and Control of Infectious Diseases

National policies designed to control infectious diseases should allocate resources for interventions based on regional estimates of disease burden from surveillance systems. For many infectious diseases, however, there is pronounced seasonal variation in incidence. Policy-makers must routinely manage a public health response to these seasonal fluctuations with limited understanding of their underlying causes. Two complementary and poorly described drivers of seasonal disease incidence are the mobility and aggregation of human populations, which spark outbreaks and sustain transmission, respectively, and may both exhibit distinct seasonal variations. Here we highlight the key challenges that seasonal migration creates when monitoring and controlling infectious diseases. We discuss the potential of new data sources in accounting for seasonal population movements in dynamic risk mapping strategies.

Dynamic denominators: the impact of seasonally varying population numbers on disease incidence estimates

BACKGROUND

Reliable health metrics are crucial for accurately assessing disease burden and planning interventions. Many health indicators are measured through passive surveillance systems and are reliant on accurate estimates of denominators to transform case counts into incidence measures. These denominator estimates generally come from national censuses and use large area growth rates to estimate annual changes. Typically, they do not account for any seasonal fluctuations and thus assume a static denominator population. Many recent studies have highlighted the dynamic nature of human populations through quantitative analyses of mobile phone call data records and a range of other sources, emphasizing seasonal changes. In this study, we use mobile phone data to capture patterns of short-term human population movement and to map dynamism in population densities.

METHODS

We show how mobile phone data can be used to measure seasonal changes in health district population numbers, which are used as denominators for calculating district-level disease incidence. Using the example of malaria case reporting in Namibia we use 3.5 years of phone data to investigate the spatial and temporal effects of fluctuations in denominators caused by seasonal mobility on malaria incidence estimates.

RESULTS

We show that even in a sparsely populated country with large distances between population centers, such as Namibia, populations are highly dynamic throughout the year. We highlight how seasonal mobility affects malaria incidence estimates, leading to differences of up to 30 % compared to estimates created using static population maps. These differences exhibit clear spatial patterns, with likely overestimation of incidence in the high-prevalence zones in the north of Namibia and underestimation in lower-risk areas when compared to using static populations.

CONCLUSION

The results here highlight how health metrics that rely on static estimates of denominators from censuses may differ substantially once mobility and seasonal variations are taken into account. With respect to the setting of malaria in Namibia, the results indicate that Namibia may actually be closer to malaria elimination than previously thought. More broadly, the results highlight how dynamic populations are. In addition to affecting incidence estimates, these changes in population density will also have an impact on allocation of medical resources. Awareness of seasonal movements has the potential to improve the impact of interventions, such as vaccination campaigns or distributions of commodities like bed nets.

Tafenoquine and its potential in the treatment and relapse prevention of Plasmodium vivax malaria: the evidence to date

Despite declining global malaria incidence, the disease continues to be a threat to people living in endemic regions. In 2015, an estimated 214 million new malaria cases and 438,000 deaths due to malaria were recorded. Plasmodium vivax is the second most common cause of malaria next to Plasmodium falciparum. Vivax malaria is prevalent especially in Southeast Asia and the Horn of Africa, with enormous challenges in controlling the disease. Some of the challenges faced by vivax malaria-endemic countries include limited access to effective drugs treating liver stages of the parasite (schizonts and hypnozoites), emergence/spread of drug resistance, and misperception of vivax malaria as nonlethal. Primaquine, the only 8-aminoquinoline derivative approved by the US Food and Drug Administration, is intended to clear intrahepatic hypnozoites of P. vivax (radical cure). However, poor adherence to a prolonged treatment course, drug-induced hemolysis in patients with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency, and the emergence of resistance make it imperative to look for alternative drugs. Therefore, this review focuses on data accrued to date on tafenoquine and gives insight on the potential role of the drug in preventing relapse and radical cure of patients with vivax malaria.

Molecular monitoring of Plasmodium falciparum super-resistance to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine in Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) is recommended for prophylactic treatment of malaria in pregnancy while artemisinin combination therapy is the recommended first-line anti-malarial treatment. Selection of SP resistance is ongoing since SP is readily available in health facilities and in private drug shops in sub-Saharan Africa. This study reports on the prevalence and distribution of Pfdhps mutations A540E and A581G in Tanzania. When found together, these mutations confer high-level SP resistance (sometimes referred to as 'super-resistance'), which is associated with loss in protective efficacy of SP-IPTp.

METHODS

DNA samples were extracted from malaria-positive blood samples on filter paper, used malaria rapid diagnostic test strips and whole blood collected from eight sites in seven administrative regions of Tanzania. PCR-RFLP and SSOP-ELISA techniques were used to genotype the A540E and A581G Pfdhps. Data were analysed using SPSS version 18 while Chi square and/or Fischer Exact tests were used to compare prevalence between regions.

RESULTS

A high inter-regional variation of Pfdhps-540E was observed (χ(2) = 76.8, p < 0.001). High inter-regional variation of 581G was observed (FE = 85.3, p < 0.001). Both Tanga and Kagera were found to have the highest levels of SP resistance. A high prevalence of Pfdhps-581G was observed in Tanga (56.6 %) in northeastern Tanzania and in Kagera (20.4 %) in northwestern Tanzania and the 540-581 EG haplotype was found at 54.5 and 19.4 %, respectively. Pfdhps-581G was not detected in Pwani and Lindi regions located south of Tanga region.

CONCLUSIONS

Selection of SP super-resistant Pfdhps A581G is highest in northern Tanzania. Variation in distribution of SP resistance is observed across the country: northeastern Tanga region and northwestern Kagera region have highest prevalence of SP super-resistance markers, while in Pwani and Lindi in the southeast the prevalence of super-resistance was zero. More studies should be conducted to understand the factors underlying the remarkable heterogeneity in SP resistance in the country.

Epidemic predictions in an imperfect world: modelling disease spread with partial data

‘Big-data’ epidemic models are being increasingly used to influence government policy to help with control and eradication of infectious diseases. In the case of livestock, detailed movement records have been used to parametrize realistic transmission models. While livestock movement data are readily available in the UK and other countries in the EU, in many countries around the world, such detailed data are not available. By using a comprehensive database of the UK cattle trade network, we implement various sampling strategies to determine the quantity of network data required to give accurate epidemiological predictions. It is found that by targeting nodes with the highest number of movements, accurate predictions on the size and spatial spread of epidemics can be made. This work has implications for countries such as the USA, where access to data is limited, and developing countries that may lack the resources to collect a full dataset on livestock movements.

Independent origin of plasmodium falciparum antifolate super-resistance, Uganda, Tanzania, and Ethiopia

Super-resistant Plasmodium falciparum threatens the effectiveness of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine in intermittent preventive treatment for malaria during pregnancy. It is characterized by the A581G Pfdhps mutation on a background of the double-mutant Pfdhps and the triple-mutant Pfdhfr. Using samples collected during 2004-2008, we investigated the evolutionary origin of the A581G mutation by characterizing microsatellite diversity flanking Pfdhps triple-mutant (437G+540E+581G) alleles from 3 locations in eastern Africa and comparing it with double-mutant (437G+540E) alleles from the same area. In Ethiopia, both alleles derived from 1 lineage that was distinct from those in Uganda and Tanzania. Uganda and Tanzania triple mutants derived from the previously characterized southeastern Africa double-mutant lineage. The A581G mutation has occurred multiple times on local Pfdhps double-mutant backgrounds; however, a novel microsatellite allele incorporated into the Tanzania lineage since 2004 illustrates the local expansion of emergent triple-mutant lineages.

Characterizing Types of Human Mobility to Inform Differential and Targeted Malaria Elimination Strategies in Northeast Cambodia

Human population movements currently challenge malaria elimination in low transmission foci in the Greater Mekong Subregion. Using a mixed-methods design, combining ethnography (n = 410 interviews), malariometric data (n = 4996) and population surveys (n = 824 indigenous populations; n = 704 Khmer migrants) malaria vulnerability among different types of mobile populations was researched in the remote province of Ratanakiri, Cambodia. Different structural types of human mobility were identified, showing differential risk and vulnerability. Among local indigenous populations, access to malaria testing and treatment through the VMW-system and LLIN coverage was high but control strategies failed to account for forest farmers’ prolonged stays at forest farms/fields (61% during rainy season), increasing their exposure (p = 0.002). The Khmer migrants, with low acquired immunity, active on plantations and mines, represented a fundamentally different group not reached by LLIN-distribution campaigns since they were largely unregistered (79%) and unaware of the local VMW-system (95%) due to poor social integration. Khmer migrants therefore require control strategies including active detection, registration and immediate access to malaria prevention and control tools from which they are currently excluded. In conclusion, different types of mobility require different malaria elimination strategies. Targeting mobility without an in-depth understanding of malaria risk in each group challenges further progress towards elimination.

Malaria Parasitemia Among Febrile Patients Seeking Clinical Care at an Outpatient Health Facility in an Urban Informal Settlement Area in Nairobi, Kenya

Nairobi is considered a low-risk area for malaria transmission, but travel can influence transmission of malaria. We investigated the demographic characteristics and travel history of patients with documented fever and malaria in a study clinic in a population-based surveillance system over a 5-year period, January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2011. During the study period, 11,480 (68%) febrile patients had a microscopy test performed for malaria, of which 2,553 (22%) were positive. Malaria was detected year-round with peaks in January, May, and September. Children aged 5–14 years had the highest proportion (28%) of positive results followed by children aged 1–4 years (23%). Almost two-thirds of patients with malaria reported traveling outside Nairobi; 79% of these traveled to three counties in western Kenya. History of recent travel (i.e., in past month) was associated with malaria parasitemia (odds ratio: 10.0, 95% confidence interval: 9.0–11.0). Malaria parasitemia was frequently observed among febrile patients at a health facility in the urban slum of Kibera, Nairobi. The majority of patients had traveled to western Kenya. However, 34% reported no travel history, which raises the possibility of local malaria transmission in this densely populated, urban setting. These findings have important implications for malaria control in large Nairobi settlements.

Fine resolution mapping of population age-structures for health and development applications

The age-group composition of populations varies considerably across the world, and obtaining accurate, spatially detailed estimates of numbers of children under 5 years is important in designing vaccination strategies, educational planning or maternal healthcare delivery. Traditionally, such estimates are derived from population censuses, but these can often be unreliable, outdated and of coarse resolution for resource-poor settings. Focusing on Nigeria, we use nationally representative household surveys and their cluster locations to predict the proportion of the under-five population in 1 × 1 km using a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model. Results showed that land cover, travel time to major settlements, night-time lights and vegetation index were good predictors and that accounting for fine-scale variation, rather than assuming a uniform proportion of under 5 year olds can result in significant differences in health metrics. The largest gaps in estimated bednet and vaccination coverage were in Kano, Katsina and Jigawa. Geolocated household surveys are a valuable resource for providing detailed, contemporary and regularly updated population age-structure data in the absence of recent census data. By combining these with covariate layers, age-structure maps of unprecedented detail can be produced to guide the targeting of interventions in resource-poor settings.

Urban Malaria: Understanding its Epidemiology, Ecology, and Transmission Across Seven Diverse ICEMR Network Sites

A major public health question is whether urbanization will transform malaria from a rural to an urban disease. However, differences about definitions of urban settings, urban malaria, and whether malaria control should differ between rural and urban areas complicate both the analysis of available data and the development of intervention strategies. This report examines the approach of the International Centers of Excellence for Malaria Research (ICEMR) to urban malaria in Brazil, Colombia, India (Chennai and Goa), Malawi, Senegal, and Uganda. Its major theme is the need to determine whether cases diagnosed in urban areas were imported from surrounding rural areas or resulted from transmission within the urban area. If infections are being acquired within urban areas, malaria control measures must be targeted within those urban areas to be effective. Conversely, if malaria cases are being imported from rural areas, control measures must be directed at vectors, breeding sites, and infected humans in those rural areas. Similar interventions must be directed differently if infections were acquired within urban areas. The hypothesis underlying the ICEMR approach to urban malaria is that optimal control of urban malaria depends on accurate epidemiologic and entomologic information about transmission.

Sub-National Targeting of Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention in the Sahelian Countries of the Nouakchott Initiative

Background

Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) has been shown to be highly efficacious against clinical malaria in areas where transmission is acutely seasonal. SMC targeting depends on a complex interplay of climate, malaria transmission and population distribution. In this study a spatial decision support framework was developed to identify health districts suitable for the targeting of SMC across seven Sahelian countries and northern states of Nigeria that are members of the Nouakchott Initiative.

Methods

A spatially explicit decision support framework that links information on seasonality, age-structured population, urbanization, malaria endemicity and the length of transmission season was developed to inform SMC targeting in health districts. Thresholds of seasonality, population and receptive risks were defined to delineate SMC suitable health districts and define the age range of children for targeting. Numbers of children were then computed for the period 2015–2020 in SMC districts. For 2015, this was combined with maps of length of malaria transmission seasons and WHO recommended treatment regimen to quantify the number of tablets required across the SMC health districts.

Results

A total of 597 Sahelian health districts were mapped, out of which 478 (80.1%) were considered suitable for SMC based on seasonality and endemicity thresholds. These districts had an estimated 119.8 million (85%) of the total population in 2015. In the six years from 2015–2020, it is estimated that a total of 158 million children 3m to <5 years, 121 million of whom were in rural areas, will need SMC to achieve universal coverage in the Sahel. If the upper age limit of SMC targeted children was increased to <10 years in low transmission districts, a total 177 million overall, of whom 135 million were rural children, will require chemoprevention in 2015–2020. In 2015 alone, an estimated 49–72 million SP tablets and 148–217 million AQ tablets will be needed to cover all or rural children respectively under the different scenarios of upper age limits.

Conclusions

Our proposed framework provides a standardised approach to support targeting and scale up of SMC by the countries of the Nouakchott Initiative. Our analysis suggests that the vast majority of the population in this region are likely to benefit from SMC and substantial resources will be required to reach universal coverage each year.

Malaria and the mobile and migrant population in Cambodia: a population movement framework to inform strategies for malaria control and elimination

BACKGROUND

The relationships between human population movement (HPM) and health are a concern at global level. In the case of malaria, those links are crucial in relation to the spread of drug resistant parasites and to the elimination of malaria in the Greater Mekong sub-Region (GMS) and beyond. The mobile and migrant populations (MMP) who are involved in forest related activities are both at high risk of being infected with malaria and at risk of receiving late and sub-standard treatment due to poor access to health services. In Cambodia, in 2012, the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) identified, as a key objective, the development of a specific strategy for MMPs in order to address these challenges. A population movement framework (PMF) for malaria was developed and operationalized in order to contribute to this strategy.

METHODS

A review of the published and unpublished literature was conducted. Based on a synthesis of the results, information was presented and discussed with experienced researchers and programme managers in the Cambodian NMCP and led to the development and refinement of a PMF for malaria. The framework was "tested" for face and content validity with national experts through a workshop approach.

RESULTS

In the literature, HPM has been described using various spatial and temporal dimensions both in the context of the spread of anti-malarial drug resistance, and in the context of malaria elimination and previous classifications have categorized MMPs in Cambodia and the GMS through using a number of different criteria. Building on these previous models, the PMF was developed and then refined and populated with in-depth information relevant to Cambodia collected from social science research and field experiences in Cambodia. The framework comprises of the PMF itself, MMP activity profiles and a Malaria Risk Index which is a summation of three related indices: a vulnerability index, an exposure index and an access index which allow a qualitative ranking of malaria risk in the MMP population. Application of currently available data to the framework illustrates that the highest risk population are those highly mobile populations engaged in forest work.

CONCLUSION

This paper describes the process of defining MMPs in Cambodia, identifying the different activities and related risks to appropriately target and tailor interventions to the highest risk groups. The framework has been used to develop more targeted behaviour change and outreach interventions for MMPs in Cambodia and its utility and effectiveness will be evaluated as part of those interventions.

Re-imagining malaria: heterogeneity of human and mosquito behaviour in relation to residual malaria transmission in Cambodia

Background

In certain regions in Southeast Asia, where malaria is reduced to forested regions populated by ethnic minorities dependent on slash-and-burn agriculture, malaria vector populations have developed a propensity to feed early and outdoors, limiting the effectiveness of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLIN) and indoor residual spraying (IRS). The interplay between heterogeneous human, as well as mosquito behaviour, radically challenges malaria control in such residual transmission contexts. This study examines human behavioural patterns in relation to the vector behaviour.

Methods

The anthropological research used a sequential mixed-methods study design in which quantitative survey research methods were used to complement findings from qualitative ethnographic research. The qualitative research existed of in-depth interviews and participant observation. For the entomological research, indoor and outdoor human landing collections were performed. All research was conducted in selected villages in Ratanakiri province, Cambodia.

Results

Variability in human behaviour resulted in variable exposure to outdoor and early biting vectors: (i) indigenous people were found to commute between farms in the forest, where malaria exposure is higher, and village homes; (ii) the indoor/outdoor biting distinction was less clear in forest housing often completely or partly open to the outside; (iii) reported sleeping times varied according to the context of economic activities, impacting on the proportion of infections that could be accounted for by early or nighttime biting; (iv) protection by LLINs may not be as high as self-reported survey data indicate, as observations showed around 40% (non-treated) market net use while (v) unprotected evening resting and deep forest activities impacted further on the suboptimal use of LLINs.

Conclusions

The heterogeneity of human behaviour and the variation of vector densities and biting behaviours may lead to a considerable proportion of exposure occurring during times that people are assumed to be protected by the distributed LLINs. Additional efforts in improving LLIN use during times when people are resting in the evening and during the night might still have an impact on further reducing malaria transmission in Cambodia.

Modelling the effects of mass drug administration on the molecular epidemiology of schistosomes

As national governments scale up mass drug administration (MDA) programs aimed to combat neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), novel selection pressures on these parasites increase. To understand how parasite populations are affected by MDA and how to maximize the success of control programmes, it is imperative for epidemiological, molecular and mathematical modelling approaches to be combined. Modelling of parasite population genetic and genomic structure, particularly of the NTDs, has been limited through the availability of only a few molecular markers to date. The landscape of infectious disease research is being dramatically reshaped by next-generation sequencing technologies and our understanding of how repeated selective pressures are shaping parasite populations is radically altering. Genomics can provide high-resolution data on parasite population structure, and identify how loci may contribute to key phenotypes such as virulence and/or drug resistance. We discuss the incorporation of genetic and genomic data, focussing on the recently sequenced Schistosoma spp., into novel mathematical transmission models to inform our understanding of the impact of MDA and other control methods. We summarize what is known to date, the models that exist and how population genetics has given us an understanding of the effects of MDA on the parasites. We consider how genetic and genomic data have the potential to shape future research, highlighting key areas where data are lacking, and how future molecular epidemiology knowledge can aid understanding of transmission dynamics and the effects of MDA, ultimately informing public health policy makers of the best interventions for NTDs.

Serological markers for monitoring historical changes in malaria transmission intensity in a highly endemic region of Western Kenya, 1994-2009

Background

Monitoring local malaria transmission intensity is essential for planning evidence-based control strategies and evaluating their impact over time. Anti-malarial antibodies provide information on cumulative exposure and have proven useful, in areas where transmission has dropped to low sustained levels, for retrospectively reconstructing the timing and magnitude of transmission reduction. It is unclear whether serological markers are also informative in high transmission settings, where interventions may reduce transmission, but to a level where considerable exposure continues.

Methods

This study was conducted through ongoing KEMRI and CDC collaboration. Asembo, in Western Kenya, is an area where intense malaria transmission was drastically reduced during a 1997–1999 community-randomized, controlled insecticide-treated net (ITN) trial. Two approaches were taken to reconstruct malaria transmission history during the period from 1994 to 2009. First, point measurements were calculated for seroprevalence, mean antibody titre, and seroconversion rate (SCR) against three Plasmodium falciparum antigens (AMA-1, MSP-1₁₉, and CSP) at five time points for comparison against traditional malaria indices (parasite prevalence and entomological inoculation rate). Second, within individual post-ITN years, age-stratified seroprevalence data were analysed retrospectively for an abrupt drop in SCR by fitting alternative reversible catalytic conversion models that allowed for change in SCR.

Results

Generally, point measurements of seroprevalence, antibody titres and SCR produced consistent patterns indicating that a gradual but substantial drop in malaria transmission (46-70%) occurred from 1994 to 2007, followed by a marginal increase beginning in 2008 or 2009. In particular, proportionate changes in seroprevalence and SCR point estimates (relative to 1994 baseline values) for AMA-1 and CSP, but not MSP-1₁₉, correlated closely with trends in parasite prevalence throughout the entire 15-year study period. However, retrospective analyses using datasets from 2007, 2008 and 2009 failed to detect any abrupt drop in transmission coinciding with the timing of the 1997–1999 ITN trial.

Conclusions

In this highly endemic area, serological markers were useful for generating accurate point estimates of malaria transmission intensity, but not for retrospective analysis of historical changes. Further investigation, including exploration of different malaria antigens and/or alternative models of population seroconversion, may yield serological tools that are more informative in high transmission settings.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-451) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The effect of intermittent preventive treatment on anti-malarial drug resistance spread in areas with population movement

Background

The use of intermittent preventive treatment in pregnant women (IPTp), children (IPTc) and infant (IPTi) is an increasingly popular preventive strategy aimed at reducing malaria risk in these vulnerable groups. Studies to understand how this preventive intervention can affect the spread of anti-malarial drug resistance are important especially when there is human movement between neighbouring low and high transmission areas. Because the same drug is sometimes utilized for IPTi and for symptomatic malaria treatment, distinguishing their individual roles on accelerating the spread of drug resistant malaria, with or without human movement, may be difficult to isolate experimentally or by analysing data. A theoretical framework, as presented here, is thus relevant as the role of IPTi on accelerating the spread of drug resistance can be isolated in individual populations and when the populations are interconnected and interact.

Methods

A previously published model is expanded to include human movement between neighbouring high and low transmission areas, with focus placed on the malaria parasites. Parasite fitness functions, determined by how many humans the parasites can infect, are used to investigate how fast resistance can spread within the neighbouring communities linked by movement, when the populations are at endemic equilibrium.

Results

Model simulations indicate that population movement results in resistance spreading fastest in high transmission areas, and the more complete the anti-malarial resistance the faster the resistant parasite will tend to spread through a population. Moreover, the demography of infection in low transmission areas tends to change to reflect the demography of high transmission areas. Additionally, when regions are strongly connected the rate of spread of partially resistant parasites (R1) relative to drug sensitive parasites (RS), and fully resistant parasites (R2) relative to partially resistant parasites (R1) tend to behave the same in both populations, as should be expected.

Conclusions

In fighting anti-malarial drug resistance, different drug resistance monitoring and management policies are needed when the area in question is an isolated high or low transmission area, or when it is close and interacting with a neighbouring high or low transmission area, with human movement between them.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-428) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Dynamic population mapping using mobile phone data

During the past few decades, technologies such as remote sensing, geographical information systems, and global positioning systems have transformed the way the distribution of human population is studied and modeled in space and time. However, the mapping of populations remains constrained by the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to assess and limit the application of human population maps in situations in which timely information is required, such as disasters, conflicts, or epidemics. Mobile phones (MPs) now have an extremely high penetration rate across the globe, and analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of MP calls geolocated to the tower level may overcome many limitations of census-based approaches, provided that the use of MP data is properly assessed and calibrated. Using datasets of more than 1 billion MP call records from Portugal and France, we show how spatially and temporarily explicit estimations of population densities can be produced at national scales, and how these estimates compare with outputs produced using alternative human population mapping methods. We also demonstrate how maps of human population changes can be produced over multiple timescales while preserving the anonymity of MP users. With similar data being collected every day by MP network providers across the world, the prospect of being able to map contemporary and changing human population distributions over relatively short intervals exists, paving the way for new applications and a near real-time understanding of patterns and processes in human geography.

Is there really such a thing as "one health"? Thinking about a more than human world from the perspective of cultural anthropology

Today's era of globalization is characterized by intensified interspecies encounters, growing ecological concerns and the (re-)emergence of infectious diseases, manifesting themselves in the interplay of medical and biological, but also social, cultural and political processes. One health approaches – which combine multidisciplinary efforts to stimulate collaborations between different health professionals such as veterinarians, medical practitioners, biologists, and public health professionals – can be understood as a response to this complex interconnectedness. Integrating a social science perspective might prove beneficial to this endeavor. This essay locates the one health discussion on disease ecologies in a more than human world within recent developments in cultural and medical anthropology that focus on the entanglements between health and a multitude of animals, plants or microbes, as they are characteristic of a globalized modernity. The paper aims to examine the social dimensions of human–animal-disease-interactions, claiming that disease is a biocultural phenomenon and that social factors generally play a crucial role in the emergence, spread and management of (infectious) disease. Consequently, it will be argued that there is a need to rethink our objects of inquiry and any given assumptions of human health, the human body or the constitution of “the global” as such. Incorporating the social sciences into one health approaches can help address topics such as consumption patterns, human–animal behavior or environmental conflicts in a novel way and on a grander scale than ever before. Yet, a greater sensitivity to context may entail some skepticism about the idea of one health – not in spite of the complex entanglements between humans, environments, animals and pathogens, but precisely because of them.

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Microbial globalization processes are neither unidirectional nor homogenous.

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Human and microbial social worlds are mutually correlated.

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Infectious diseases are a product of both, biological and social relations.

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Anthropological studies might help to situate and contextualize this interaction.

Quantifying cross-border movements and migrations for guiding the strategic planning of malaria control and elimination

Background

Identifying human and malaria parasite movements is important for control planning across all transmission intensities. Imported infections can reintroduce infections into areas previously free of infection, maintain ‘hotspots’ of transmission and import drug resistant strains, challenging national control programmes at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Recent analyses based on mobile phone usage data have provided valuable insights into population and likely parasite movements within countries, but these data are restricted to sub-national analyses, leaving important cross-border movements neglected.

Methods

National census data were used to analyse and model cross-border migration and movement, using East Africa as an example. ‘Hotspots’ of origin-specific immigrants from neighbouring countries were identified for Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. Populations of origin-specific migrants were compared to distance from origin country borders and population size at destination, and regression models were developed to quantify and compare differences in migration patterns. Migration data were then combined with existing spatially-referenced malaria data to compare the relative propensity for cross-border malaria movement in the region.

Results

The spatial patterns and processes for immigration were different between each origin and destination country pair. Hotspots of immigration, for example, were concentrated close to origin country borders for most immigrants to Tanzania, but for Kenya, a similar pattern was only seen for Tanzanian and Ugandan immigrants. Regression model fits also differed between specific migrant groups, with some migration patterns more dependent on population size at destination and distance travelled than others. With these differences between immigration patterns and processes, and heterogeneous transmission risk in East Africa and the surrounding region, propensities to import malaria infections also likely show substantial variations.

Conclusion

This was a first attempt to quantify and model cross-border movements relevant to malaria transmission and control. With national census available worldwide, this approach can be translated to construct a cross-border human and malaria movement evidence base for other malaria endemic countries. The outcomes of this study will feed into wider efforts to quantify and model human and malaria movements in endemic regions to facilitate improved intervention planning, resource allocation and collaborative policy decisions.

Integrating rapid risk mapping and mobile phone call record data for strategic malaria elimination planning

Background

As successful malaria control programmes re-orientate towards elimination, the identification of transmission foci, targeting of attack measures to high-risk areas and management of importation risk become high priorities. When resources are limited and transmission is varying seasonally, approaches that can rapidly prioritize areas for surveillance and control can be valuable, and the most appropriate attack measure for a particular location is likely to differ depending on whether it exports or imports malaria infections.

Methods/Results

Here, using the example of Namibia, a method for targeting of interventions using surveillance data, satellite imagery, and mobile phone call records to support elimination planning is described. One year of aggregated movement patterns for over a million people across Namibia are analyzed, and linked with case-based risk maps built on satellite imagery. By combining case-data and movement, the way human population movements connect transmission risk areas is demonstrated. Communities that were strongly connected by relatively higher levels of movement were then identified, and net export and import of travellers and infection risks by region were quantified. These maps can aid the design of targeted interventions to maximally reduce the number of cases exported to other regions while employing appropriate interventions to manage risk in places that import them.

Conclusions

The approaches presented can be rapidly updated and used to identify where active surveillance for both local and imported cases should be increased, which regions would benefit from coordinating efforts, and how spatially progressive elimination plans can be designed. With improvements in surveillance systems linked to improved diagnosis of malaria, detailed satellite imagery being readily available and mobile phone usage data continually being collected by network providers, the potential exists to make operational use of such valuable, complimentary and contemporary datasets on an ongoing basis in infectious disease control and elimination.