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Jinga P, Palagi J. Dry and wet miombo woodlands of south-central Africa respond differently to climate change. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2020; 192:372. [PMID: 32417982 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-020-08342-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/09/2019] [Accepted: 05/04/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
It is important to understand how species distributions will shift under climate change. While much focus has been on species tracking temperature changes in the northern hemisphere, changing precipitation patterns in tropical regions have received less attention. The aim of the study was to estimate the current distribution of wet and dry miombo woodlands of sub-Saharan Africa and to predict their distributions under different climate change scenarios. A maximum entropy method (Maxent) was used to estimate the distributions and for projections. Occurrence records of dominant tree species in each woodland were used for modeling, together with altitude, soil characteristics, and climate variables as the environmental variables. Modeling was done under all four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and three general circulation models. Three dominant tree species were used in models of dry miombo while seven were used for wet miombo. Models estimated dry miombo to cover almost the entire known distribution of miombo woodlands while wet miombo were estimated to predominate in parts of Angola, southern Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Future climate scenarios predict a drier climate in sub-Saharan Africa, and as a result, the range of dry miombo will expand. Dry miombo were predicted to expand by up to 17.3% in 2050 and 22.7% in 2070. In contrast, wet miombo were predicted to contract by up to - 28.6% in 2050 and - 41.6% in 2070. A warming climate is conducive for the proliferation of dry miombo tree species but unfavorable for wet miombo tree species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Percy Jinga
- Biological Sciences Department, Bindura University of Science Education, Private Bag, 1020, Bindura, Zimbabwe.
| | - Jason Palagi
- Biological Sciences Department, Sewanee: The University of the South, 735 University Avenue, Sewanee, TN, 37383, USA
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Bates M, Shibemba A, Mudenda V, Chimoga C, Tembo J, Kabwe M, Chilufya M, Hoelscher M, Maeurer M, Sinyangwe S, Mwaba P, Kapata N, Zumla A. Burden of respiratory tract infections at post mortem in Zambian children. BMC Med 2016; 14:99. [PMID: 27363601 PMCID: PMC4929772 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-016-0645-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2016] [Accepted: 06/14/2016] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Autopsy studies are the gold standard for determining cause-of-death and can inform on improved diagnostic strategies and algorithms to improve patient care. We conducted a cross-sectional observational autopsy study to describe the burden of respiratory tract infections in inpatient children who died at the University Teaching Hospital in Lusaka, Zambia. METHODS Gross pathology was recorded and lung tissue was analysed by histopathology and molecular diagnostics. Recruitment bias was estimated by comparing recruited and non-recruited cases. RESULTS Of 121 children autopsied, 64 % were male, median age was 19 months (IQR, 12-45 months). HIV status was available for 97 children, of whom 34 % were HIV infected. Lung pathology was observed in 92 % of cases. Bacterial bronchopneumonia was the most common pathology (50 %) undiagnosed ante-mortem in 69 % of cases. Other pathologies included interstitial pneumonitis (17 %), tuberculosis (TB; 8 %), cytomegalovirus pneumonia (7 %) and pneumocystis Jirovecii pneumonia (5 %). Comorbidity between lung pathology and other communicable and non-communicable diseases was observed in 80 % of cases. Lung tissue from 70 % of TB cases was positive for Mycobacterium tuberculosis by molecular diagnostic tests. A total of 80 % of TB cases were comorbid with malnutrition and only 10 % of TB cases were on anti-TB therapy when they died. CONCLUSIONS More proactive testing for bacterial pneumonia and TB in paediatric inpatient settings is needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew Bates
- HerpeZ, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia. .,University of Zambia and University College London Medical School (UNZA-UCLMS) Research and Training Programme, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia. .,Department of Infection, Division of Infection and Immunity, University College London, and NIHR Biomedical Research centre at UCL Hospitals, London, UK.
| | - Aaron Shibemba
- Department of Pathology & Microbiology, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Victor Mudenda
- Department of Pathology & Microbiology, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Charles Chimoga
- HerpeZ, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia.,University of Zambia and University College London Medical School (UNZA-UCLMS) Research and Training Programme, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - John Tembo
- HerpeZ, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia.,University of Zambia and University College London Medical School (UNZA-UCLMS) Research and Training Programme, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia.,Institute for Infectious Diseases, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Mwila Kabwe
- HerpeZ, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia.,University of Zambia and University College London Medical School (UNZA-UCLMS) Research and Training Programme, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Moses Chilufya
- HerpeZ, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia.,University of Zambia and University College London Medical School (UNZA-UCLMS) Research and Training Programme, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Michael Hoelscher
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine, Medical Centre of the University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Markus Maeurer
- Therapeutic Immunology, Department of Laboratory Medicine, Department of Microbiology, and Department of Tumour and Cell Biology, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Sylvester Sinyangwe
- Department of Paediatrics & Child Health, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Peter Mwaba
- University of Zambia and University College London Medical School (UNZA-UCLMS) Research and Training Programme, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia.,Ministry of Health, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Nathan Kapata
- University of Zambia and University College London Medical School (UNZA-UCLMS) Research and Training Programme, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia.,National Tuberculosis Control Programme, Ministry of Community Development, Maternal and Child Health, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Alimuddin Zumla
- University of Zambia and University College London Medical School (UNZA-UCLMS) Research and Training Programme, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia.,Department of Infection, Division of Infection and Immunity, University College London, and NIHR Biomedical Research centre at UCL Hospitals, London, UK
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Schneibel A, Stellmes M, Röder A, Finckh M, Revermann R, Frantz D, Hill J. Evaluating the trade-off between food and timber resulting from the conversion of Miombo forests to agricultural land in Angola using multi-temporal Landsat data. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2016; 548-549:390-401. [PMID: 26803737 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.12.137] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2015] [Revised: 12/21/2015] [Accepted: 12/27/2015] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
The repopulation of abandoned areas in Angola after 27years of civil war led to a fast and extensive expansion of agricultural fields to meet the rising food demand. Yet, the increase in crop production at the expense of natural resources carries an inherent potential for conflicts since the demand for timber and wood extraction are also supposed to rise. We use the concept of ecosystem services to evaluate the trade-off between food and woody biomass. Our study area is located in central Angola, in the highlands of the upper Okavango catchment. We used Landsat data (spatial resolution: 30×30m) with a bi-temporal and multi-seasonal change detection approach for five time steps between 1989 and 2013 to estimate the conversion area from woodland to agriculture. Overall accuracy is 95%, user's accuracy varies from 89-95% and producer's accuracy ranges between 92-99%. To quantify the trade-off between woody biomass and the amount of food, this information was combined with indicator values and we furthermore assessed biomass regrowth on fallows. Our results reveal a constant rise in agricultural expansion from 1989-2013 with the mean annual deforestation rate increasing from roughly 5300ha up to about 12,000ha. Overall, 5.6% of the forested areas were converted to agriculture, whereas the FAO states a national deforestation rate for Angola of 5% from 1990-2010 (FAO, 2010). In the last time step 961,000t per year of woodland were cleared to potentially produce 1240t per year of maize. Current global agro-economical projections forecast increasing pressure on tropical dry forests from large-scale agriculture schemes (Gasparri et al., 2015; Searchinger and Heimlich, 2015). Our study underlines the importance of considering subsistence-related change processes, which may contribute significantly to negative effects associated with deforestation and degradation of these forest ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anne Schneibel
- University of Trier, Department of Environmental Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics, Behringstr. 21, 54286 Trier, Germany.
| | - Marion Stellmes
- University of Trier, Department of Environmental Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics, Behringstr. 21, 54286 Trier, Germany.
| | - Achim Röder
- University of Trier, Department of Environmental Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics, Behringstr. 21, 54286 Trier, Germany.
| | - Manfred Finckh
- University of Hamburg, Department of Biodiversity, Evolution and Ecology of Plants, Biocentre Klein Flottbek and Botanical Garden, Ohnhorststr. 18, 22609 Hamburg, Germany.
| | - Rasmus Revermann
- University of Hamburg, Department of Biodiversity, Evolution and Ecology of Plants, Biocentre Klein Flottbek and Botanical Garden, Ohnhorststr. 18, 22609 Hamburg, Germany.
| | - David Frantz
- University of Trier, Department of Environmental Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics, Behringstr. 21, 54286 Trier, Germany.
| | - Joachim Hill
- University of Trier, Department of Environmental Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics, Behringstr. 21, 54286 Trier, Germany.
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