Determinants of first line antiretroviral therapy treatment failure among adult patients on ART at central Ethiopia: un-matched case control study

Machine learning to predict virological failure among HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy in the University of Gondar Comprehensive and Specialized Hospital, in Amhara Region, Ethiopia, 2022

BACKGROUND

Treatment with effective antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces viral load as well as HIV-related morbidity and mortality in HIV-positive patients. Despite the expanded availability of antiretroviral therapy around the world, virological failure remains a serious problem for HIV-positive patients. Thus, Machine learning predictive algorithms have the potential to improve the quality of care and predict the needs of HIV patients by analyzing huge amounts of data, and enhancing prediction capabilities. This study used different machine learning classification algorithms to predict the features that cause virological failure in HIV-positive patients.

METHOD

An institution-based secondary data was used to conduct patients who were on antiretroviral therapy at the University of Gondar Comprehensive and Specialized Hospital from January 2020 to May 2022. Patients' data were extracted from the electronic database using a structured checklist and imported into Python version three software for data pre-processing and analysis. Then, seven supervised classification machine-learning algorithms for model development were trained. The performances of the predictive models were evaluated using accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, precision, f1-score, and AUC. Association rule mining was used to generate the best rule for the association between independent features and the target feature.

RESULT

Out of 5264 study participants, 1893 (35.06%) males and 3371 (64.04%) females were included. The random forest classifier (sensitivity = 1.00, precision = 0.987, f1-score = 0.993, AUC = 0.9989) outperformed in predicting virological failure among all selected classifiers. Random forest feature importance and association rules identified the top eight predictors (Male, younger age, longer duration on ART, not taking CPT, not taking TPT, secondary educational status, TDF-3TC-EFV, and low CD4 counts) of virological failure based on the importance ranking, and the CD-4 count was recognized as the most important predictor feature.

CONCLUSION

The random forest classifier outperformed in predicting and identifying the relevant predictors of virological failure. The results of this study could be very helpful to health professionals in determining the optimal virological outcome.

First line antiretroviral treatment failure and its association with drug substitution and sex among children in Ethiopia: systematic review and meta-analysis

Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) has significantly decreased HIV-related morbidity and mortality among children despite the issue of drug resistance and subsequent treatment failure appearing as a challenge. Different studies have been conducted in Ethiopia regarding the prevalence of first-line ART failure among children but the magnitudes of these studies were inconsistent and had great variability. This review aimed to estimate the pooled prevalence of first line ART failure among children and its association with drug substitution and sex of children among first-line ART users in Ethiopia. The review was conducted using both published and unpublished studies until September 2020 in Ethiopia. MEDLINE, PubMed, Hinari, Web of Science, Google Scholar, Africa journal online (AJOL), Open gray literature, and online repository articles were searched. The quality of individual studies was assessed by Joanna Briggs Institute's (JBI) critical appraisal checklist. The statistical analysis was done by STATA-14 software and a random effect model was used. Heterogeneity was assessed using forest plot Cochrane Q-test and I-squared statistic. Publication bias was checked by using a funnel plot and Egger's and Begg's statistical tests. The interpretation was made by an odds ratio and with their respective 95% confidence intervals. The heterogeneity rate was 90% and Begg's and Egger's for publication bias were insignificant with p-values of 0.89 and 0.11 respectively. The pooled prevalence of pediatric first line ART failure in Ethiopia was 14.98% (95% CI 11.74, 18.21). Subgroup analysis showed that the highest failure rate was virological (9.13%). Female children had 1.4 times more risk of first-line ART failure (OR = 1.42; 95% CI 1.08, 1.85). First-line ART failure among children in Ethiopia is considerably high. Being female increases the likelihood of facing first line ART failure. More attention should be given to female children.

The impact of tuberculosis co-infection on virological failure among adults living with HIV in Ethiopia: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Tuberculosis (TB) is the most common serious opportunistic infection among people with Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection and are considered as the double burden diseases of the world. TB is the leading cause of death among people living with HIV, accounting one in three HIV related deaths. Although TB is responsible for high burden of virological unsuppressed in Ethiopia, there is no national level evidence. Therefore, this systematic review and meta-analysis was aimed at estimating the pooled burden of virological unsuppressed among adults with both HIV-TB and impact of TB on virological failure in Ethiopia.

Methods

The finding of this meta-analysis was reported using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses checklists. Major data bases PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane Library, Science Direct and Google scholar were searched to access articles. Cochran’s Q statistic quantified with inverse variance was computed to check heterogeneity. Funnel plot visualization and Egger’s test were fitted to assess publication bias across included studies. Random effects model meta-analysis using STATA version-15 statistical software was used to estimate the pooled effect with respective 95% confidence intervals.

Results

A total of 15 primary studies reporting on impact of tuberculosis on virological unsuppressed among adults living with HIV in Ethiopia were eligible for this meta-analysis. Accordingly, the pooled prevalence of virological unsuppressed among adults with both HIV-TB in Ethiopia was 39.09% (95% CI: 29.04, 49.15). In addition, the odds of virological unsuppressed among adults with both HIV-TB was 2.46 times higher when compared with adults living with HIV infection alone (OR = 2.46, 95% CI: 1.74, 3.46).

Conclusion

The present systematic review and meta-analysis evidenced that the pooled prevalence of virological unsuppressed among adults with both HIV-TB was much higher than virological unsuppressed among adults living with HIV alone. Moreover, the odds of virological failure among adults with both HIV-TB was significantly higher when compared with among only HIV infection in Ethiopia. Therefore, strengthening TB prevention interventions, early identification and managing the case and prioritizing viral load monitoring and adherence support among adults living with HIV are recommended.

Effects of undernutrition on opportunistic infections among adults living with HIV on ART in Northwest Ethiopia: Using inverse-probability weighting

BACKGROUND

Opportunistic infections (OIs) are the leading causes of hospitalization, morbidity, and mortality (accounting for 94.1% of all deaths) in people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV). Despite evidence suggested that undernutrition significantly increases the risk of OIs in PLHIV, to our knowledge, no study has examined the actual effects of undernutrition on OIs in this population, particularly in low-income countries. Thus, this study examined the effects of undernutrition on OIs in adults living with HIV receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART).

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study among 841adults living with HIV receiving ART between June 2014 and June 2020 at Debre Markos Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia. Study participants were selected using a simple random sampling technique. Data from participants' medical records were extracted using a project-specific data extraction checklist. The Kaplan Meier survival curve estimated the OIs free survival time. The effects of undernutrition on time to develop OIs was estimated using inverse-probability weighting. Finally, regression coefficients with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were reported, with a statistical significance of p < 0.05.

RESULTS

Of 841 study participants, 262 (31.2%) developed OIs, and the overall incidence rate was 16.7 (95% CI: 14.8, 18.8) per 100 person-years. The incWidence of OIs in undernourished participants (21/100 person-years, 95% CI: 17.8, 27.4) was higher than well-nourished participants (15.0/100 person-years, 95% CI: 12.9, 17.4). When everyone in the population of interest is well-nourished, average time to develop OIs is estimated as 26.5 (coefficient: 26.5, 95% CI: 20.6, 32.4, p < 0.001) months. When everyone in the population of interest is undernourished, average time to develop OIs is estimated as 17.7 (95% CI: 12.8, 22.6) months. However, when everyone is undernourished, average time to develop OIs decreases by 8.8 (coefficient: -8.8, 95% CI: -16.6, -1.0, p = 0.026) months. Lastly, exposure to undernourishment (intervention) (ratio of average treatment effects to well-nourished potential outcome means in this study was a 32.5% reduction in OIs among adults living with HIV on ART.

CONCLUSION

We found that undernutrition significantly shortened time to develop OIs in adults living with HIV. This implies that the occurrence of OIs in this vulnerable population can be improved through different cost-effective nutritional interventions, such as routine nutritional assessments and education.

Virological and Immunological Antiretroviral Treatment Failure and Predictors Among HIV Positive Adult and Adolescent Clients in Southeast Ethiopia

Background

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimen failure is linked to an increased risk of disease progression and death, while early detection of ART failure can help to prevent the development of resistance. This study aimed to evaluate virological and immunological ART failure and predictors among HIV-positive adult and adolescent clients in southeast Ethiopia.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was implemented from January 2016 to November 30, 2020; all HIV-positive nave patients on follow-up during the study period from four hospitals were included. Virological and immunological treatment failure was the primary outcome of the study. Cox proportional hazards regression models were employed for analysis. Hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals were reported and variables with p-values <0.05 were considered statistically significant predictors of treatment failure.

Results

A total of 641 HIV patients’ charts were reviewed, 62.6% of the study participants were females. Of the total study participants, 18.4% and 15% developed virological and immunological ART regimen treatment failure respectively. The median time to virological failure was 40 months. WHO stage IV [AHR = 4.616; 95% CI: (2.136–9.974)], WHO stage III [AHR = 2.323; 95% CI: (1.317–4.098)], poor adherence to HAART regimen [AHR = 3.097; 95% CI: (1.349–7.108)], and fair adherence [AHR = 2.058; 95% CI: (1.234–3.432)] were significantly associated with virological treatment failure among adolescent and adult study participants in southeast Ethiopia.

Conclusion

The prevalence of virological treatment failure was 18.4% (95% CI: 15.4 −21.4) and the prevalence of immunological treatment failure was 15% (95% CI: 11.8–18.4). WHO clinical stage III/IV and non-adherence were independent predictors of virological ART treatment failure. Early management of clinical WHO stages and improving patients’ ART regimen adherence are important to decrease the prevalence of ART regimen treatment failure.

Determinants of first-line antiretroviral treatment failure among adult patients on treatment in Mettu Karl Specialized Hospital, South West Ethiopia; a case control study

Background

Antiretroviral therapy has dramatically reduced Human Immunodeficiency Virus related morbidity and mortality. It has also transformed HIV infection into a manageable chronic condition. However, first-line antiretroviral treatment failure continues to grow especially in resource limited settings. Despite this, determinants of first-line antiretroviral treatment failure are not well studied in Ethiopia.

Objective

To identify determinants of first-line antiretroviral treatment failure among adult patients on antiretroviral therapy in Mettu Karl Specialized Hospital, South West Ethiopia, in 2020.

Methods

A hospital based case-control study was conducted from October to November 2020. Simple random sampling technique was used to select participants. Interviewer administered questionnaire and record review were used for data collection. Data were entered into epi data version 3.1 and exported to SPSS version 20 for analysis. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis were used. At the end, variables with P-value < 0.05 at 95% confidence intervals for adjusted odds ratio were considered statistically significant determinants of first line treatment failure.

Result

A total of 113 cases and 339 controls were included in the study with response rate of 98.6%. Sixty-four (56.6%) of cases and 183 (54.0%) of controls were females. Baseline WHO clinical stage III and IV (AOR = 1.909, 95% CI: (1.103, 3.305), baseline body mass index<18.5kg/m²(AOR = 2.208,95% CI:(1.257,3.877),baseline CD4 cell count <100cells/mm³ (AOR = 3.016, 95% CI: (1.734, 5.246), having history of TB co-infection (AOR = 1.855, 95% CI: (1.027, 3.353), having history of lost to follow up (AOR = 3.235, 95% CI: (1.096, 9.551), poor adherence to medication (AOR = 7.597, 95% CI: (4.059, 14.219) and initiation of treatment after two years of diagnosis with HIV (AOR = 4.979, 95% CI: (2.039, 12.158) were determinants of first-line antiretroviral treatment failure.

Conclusion

In this study several variables were found to be determinants of first-line antiretroviral treatment failure. Concerned bodies should give more attention to early diagnosis of HIV, early enrollment in chronic HIV care and early initiation of ART before patients develop advanced WHO clinical stages. In addition, focus has to be given for patients with low CD4 count. Regular screening for TB, counseling on optimal adherence to medication and enhancing nutritional status of patients with low body mass index are also crucial to prevent first-line antiretroviral treatment failure.

Predictors of virological failure among people living with HIV receiving first line antiretroviral treatment in Myanmar: retrospective cohort analysis

Background

Progress toward the global target for 95% virological suppression among those on antiretroviral treatment (ART) is still suboptimal. We describe the viral load (VL) cascade, the incidence of virological failure and associated risk factors among people living with HIV receiving first-line ART in an HIV cohort in Myanmar treated by the Médecins Sans Frontières in collaboration with the Ministry of Health and Sports Myanmar.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study, including adult patients with at least one HIV viral load test result and having received of at least 6 months’ standard first-line ART. The incidence rate of virological failure (HIV viral load ≥ 1000 copies/mL) was calculated. Multivariable Cox’s regression was performed to identify risk factors for virological failure.

Results

We included 25,260 patients with a median age of 33.1 years (interquartile range, IQR 28.0–39.1) and a median observation time of 5.4 years (IQR 3.7–7.9). Virological failure was documented in 3,579 (14.2%) participants, resulting in an overall incidence rate for failure of 2.5 per 100 person-years of follow-up. Among those who had a follow-up viral load result, 1,258 (57.1%) had confirmed virological failure, of which 836 (66.5%) were switched to second-line treatment. An increased hazard for failure was associated with age ≤ 19 years (adjusted hazard ratio, aHR 1.51; 95% confidence intervals, CI 1.20–1.89; p < 0.001), baseline tuberculosis (aHR 1.39; 95% CI 1.14–1.49; p < 0.001), a history of low-level viremia (aHR 1.60; 95% CI 1.42–1.81; p < 0.001), or a history of loss-to-follow-up (aHR 1.24; 95% CI 1.41–1.52; p = 0.041) and being on the same regimen (aHR 1.37; 95% CI 1.07–1.76; p < 0.001). Cumulative appointment delay was not significantly associated with failure after controlling for covariates.

Conclusions

VL monitoring is an important tool to improve programme outcomes, however limited coverage of VL testing and acting on test results hampers its full potential. In our cohort children and adolescents, PLHIV with history of loss-to-follow-up or those with low-viremia are at the highest risk of virological failure and might require more frequent virological monitoring than is currently recommended.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12981-021-00336-0.

Immunological Treatment Failure Among Adult Patients Receiving Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy in East Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Minimizing antiretroviral treatment failure is crucial for improving patient health and for maintaining long-term access to care in low-income settings such as eastern Africa. To develop interventions to support adherence, policymakers must understand the extent and scope of treatment failure in their programs. However, estimates of treatment failure in eastern Africa have been variable and inconclusive.

Objective

This systematic review and meta-analysis sought to determine the pooled prevalence of immunological failure among adults receiving antiretroviral therapy in eastern Africa.

Methods

We performed a systematic search of the PubMed, Google Scholar, Excerpta Medica Database, and the World Health Organization's Hinari portal (which includes the Scopus, African Index Medicus, and African Journals Online databases) databases. Unpublished studies were also accessed from conference websites and university repositories. We used Stata version 14 for data analysis. The Cochrane Q test and I ² test statistic were used to test for heterogeneity across the studies. Due to high levels of heterogeneity, a random effects model was used to estimate the pooled prevalence of immunological failure. Begg and Egger tests of the intercept in the random effects model were used to check for publication bias.

Results

After removing duplicates, 25 articles remained for assessment and screening. After quality screening, 15 articles were deemed eligible and incorporated into the final analysis. The average pooled estimate of immunological treatment failure prevalence was found to be 21.89% (95% CI, 15.14-28.64). In the subgroup analysis conducted by geographic region, the pooled prevalence of immunological treatment failure in Ethiopia was 15.2% (95% CI, 12.27-18.13) while in Tanzania it was 53.93% (95% CI, 48.14-59.73). Neither the results of Egger test or Begg tests suggested publication bias; however, on visual examination, the funnel plot appeared asymmetric. The large heterogeneity across the studies could be explained by study country.

Conclusion

Immunological treatment failure among patients receiving antiretroviral therapy in eastern Africa was high, and greater than previously reported. The relatively low rates of treatment failure found in Ethiopia suggest that its health extension program should be studied as a model for improving adherence in the region. (Curr Ther Res Clin Exp. 2021; 82:XXX-XXX) © 2021 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc.

Determinants of Virological Failure Among Patients on First-line Antiretroviral Therapy in Central Oromia, Ethiopia: A Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND

Viral suppression among people living with HIV is the main goal of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Despite the treatment, more than four million people and over 55 thousand patients globally and in Ethiopia had virological failure respectively in 2017. The purpose of this study was to identify determinants of virological failure among patients on ART in central Oromia, Ethiopia.

METHODS

A facility-based unmatched case-control study was conducted. Sample size was calculated using EpiInfo software, and 504 randomly selected patient's records were analyzed. Case to control ratio was one to one. Separate sampling frames were prepared for cases and controls using medical registration numbers (MRN) from patients' registrations data. Cases and controls were selected from respective sampling frames. Respective patient charts were traced using the MRN, and data were extracted from patient charts using data abstraction format. The data were entered using EpiInfo version seven and analyzed using SPSS version 20.0. Descriptive statistics and binary logistic regression were used for the analysis. Adjusted odds ratio with its 95%CI was used to present strength association. A P-value of <0.05 was used to determine statistical significance of the association.

RESULTS

Age <15 years (AOR=3.72, 95%CI: 1.70-8.12), baseline CD4 count <100/mm3 (AOR=2.31, 95%CI: 1.05-5.08), TDF-3TC-NVP regimen (AOR=2.81, 95%CI: 1.28-6.18), nondisclosure of HIV status (AOR=6.78, 95%CI: 3.24-14.15) and history of poor adherence (AOR=11.19, 95%CI: 5.65-22.15) were factors independently associated with virological failure among the study participants.

CONCLUSION

Younger age, low baseline CD4 count, TDF/NVP containing regimen, poor adherence, and nondisclosure of HIV status were significant determinants of virological failure. Therefore, adherence counseling and paying due attention to patients having these determinants are required to achieve adequate viral load suppression.

Determinants of Virologic Failure among Adult HIV Patients on First-Line Antiretroviral Therapy at Waghimra Zone, Northern Ethiopia: A Case-Control Study

Introduction. The primary goal of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is to reduce the viral load in HIV-infected patients to promote quality of life, as well as to reduce HIV-related morbidity and mortality. A high rate of virologic failure was reported in Waghimra Zone, Northwest Ethiopia, in viral load assessment conducted among HIV-infected patients on ART in the Amhara region. However, there is limited evidence on the determinants of virological failure in the study area. This study aimed to identify the determinants of virological failure among HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy in Waghimra zone, Northern Ethiopia, 2019. Methods. An institutional-based unmatched case-control study was conducted from May 21 to June 30, 2019. Cases were people living with HIV (PLHIV) on ART who had already experienced virological failure; controls were those without virological failure. Data were extracted from 92 cases and 184 controls through chart review using a pretested and structured checklist. The data were entered using Epi Info version 7 and exported to SPSS version 20 for analysis. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was carried out to identify factors associated with virological failure, and variables with a P value <0.05 were considered statistically significant. Results. This study revealed that poor adherence to ART (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 4.24, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.17, 8.31), taking ART for longer than five years (AOR = 3.11, 95% CI: 1.17, 8.25), having drug toxicity (AOR = 3.34, 95% CI: 1.54, 7.23), age of PLHIV ≥ 35 years (AOR = 2.45, 95% CI: 1.29,4.64), and recent CD4 count <200 cells/mm³ (AOR = 3.06, 95% CI: 1.52, 6.13) were factors associated with virologic failure. Conclusion and Recommendation. This study showed that poor adherence to treatment, longer duration on ART, experiencing drug toxicity, older age, and recent CD4 <200 cell/mm³ are factors that increase the risk of virologic failure.

Long-term efficacy and safety of nevirapine-containing regimens in virologically suppressed patients: a 17-year follow up

Background: To evaluate long term outcomes in patients maintaining a NVP based regimen for more than 10 years.Materials and methods: Retrospective, multicenter, cohort study including virologically suppressed patients, currently receiving a NVP-based regimen that had been started at least 10 years previously. Demographic, clinical, and analytical variables were recorded.Results: Two hundred and seventy four subjects were included. Median (IQR) follow up was 17.1 (13.8-18.5) years. Dyslipidemia (29.9%), hypertension (11.4%) and diabetes (8%) were the most common reported co-morbidities. After a median of 17 years of follow-up we observed a significant increase in general health markers such as hemoglobin and CD4 cells (all p<0.001) as well as a significant reduction in CD8 and ALT [-111 cells/uL (-346.5-151) p 0.003 and ALT median (IQR) -4.2 (-18.5-4) p<0.001 respectively]. LDL-c and serum triglyceride levels decreased significantly [-0,1 (-1-0.6) p:<0.001 and -0,3 (-1.2-0.4) p:0.002 respectively]. HDL-c increased significantly 0.3 (00.5-0.6). Median (IQR) time with persistent HIV VL <50 copies was 16 (13-18) years. During follow up, subjects presented with median (IQR) 1 (0-2) blip (HIV VL >50<1000 copies/ml).Conclusions: Based on the extensive experience as well as a good tolerance and efficacy profile, NVP should be considered for treatment continuation in those patients already receiving this inexpensive generic drug.