Factors predicting one-year post-surgical mortality amongst older Asian patients undergoing moderate to major non-cardiac surgery - a retrospective cohort study

Perioperative mortality among geriatric patients in Ethiopia: a prospective cohort study

Background

With the dramatic growth in the aged population observed in developed and developing nations, the older population burdened by unmet demand for surgical treatment has become a significant yet unnoticed public health concern in resource-limited countries. Studies are limited regarding surgical mortality of geriatric patients in Africa. Therefore, this study aims to estimate the incidence and identify predictors of postoperative mortality using prospective data in a low-income country, Ethiopia.

Methods and materials

A prospective cohort study was conducted from June 01, 2019, to June 30, 2021, at a tertiary-level hospital in Ethiopia. Perioperative data were collected using an electronic data collection tool. Cox regression analysis was used to identify predictor variables. The association between predictors and postoperative mortality among geriatrics was computed using a hazard ratio (HR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI); p-value <0.05 was a cutoff value to declare statistical significance.

Results

Of eligible 618 patients, 601 were included in the final analysis. The overall incidence of postoperative mortality among geriatrics was 5.16%, with a rate of 1.91 (95% CI: 1.34, 2.72) deaths per 1,000 person-day observation. Age ≥ 80 years (Adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 2.59, 95% CI: 1.05, 6.36), ASA physical status III/IV (AHR = 2.40, 95%CI 1.06, 5.43), comorbidity (AHR = 2.53, 95% CI: 1.19, 7.01), and emergency surgery (AHR = 2.92, 95% CI: 1.17, 7.27) were the significant predictors of postoperative mortality among older patients.

Conclusion

Postoperative mortality among geriatrics was high. Identified predictors were age ≥ 80 years, ASA status III/IV, comorbidity, and emergency surgery. Target-specific interventions should be addressed to improve high surgical mortality in these patients.

Predictors of unplanned hospital readmission after non-cardiac surgery in Singapore: a 2-year retrospective review

INTRODUCTION

Unplanned hospital readmissions after surgery contribute significantly to healthcare costs and potential complications. Identifying predictors of readmission is inherently complex and involves an intricate interplay between medical factors, healthcare system factors and sociocultural factors. Therefore, the aim of this study was to elucidate the predictors of readmissions in an Asian surgical patient population.

METHODS

A two-year single-institution retrospective cohort study of 2744 patients was performed in a university-affiliated tertiary hospital in Singapore, including patients aged 45 and above undergoing intermediate or high-risk non-cardiac surgery. Unadjusted analysis was first performed, followed by multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

Two hundred forty-nine patients (9.1%) had unplanned 30-day readmissions. Significant predictors identified from multivariable analysis include: American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) Classification grades 3 to 5 (adjusted OR 1.51, 95% CI 1.10-2.08, p = 0.01), obesity (adjusted OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.18-2.34, p = 0.04), asthma (OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.03-2.81, p = 0.04), renal disease (OR 2.03, 95% CI 1.41-2.92, p < 0.001), malignancy (OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.29-2.37, p < 0.001), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR 2.46, 95% CI 1.19-5.11, p = 0.02), cerebrovascular disease (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.17-2.58, p < 0.001) and anaemia (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.07-1.96, p = 0.02).

CONCLUSION

Several significant predictors of unplanned readmissions identified in this Asian surgical population corroborate well with findings from Western studies. Further research will require future prospective studies and development of predictive risk modelling to further address and mitigate this phenomenon.

Effect of preoperative psychiatric morbidity on postoperative outcomes of lung cancer surgery: A nationwide cohort study in South Korea

OBJECTIVE

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide, and cancer is associated with severe psychological distress. We aimed to investigate whether preoperative psychiatric morbidities affect clinical outcomes of lung cancer surgery in South Korea.

METHODS

Using the National Health Insurance Service database, all adult patients who were diagnosed with lung cancer and underwent lung cancer surgery from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2018, were included in this retrospective, population-based cohort study. Depression, anxiety disorder, schizophrenia, alcohol abuse, non-alcohol substance abuse, and post-traumatic stress disorder were considered as preoperative psychiatric morbidities.

RESULTS

Overall, 60,031 adult patients who underwent lung cancer surgery were included in the final analysis. Of these, 17,255 (28.7%) patients had preoperative psychiatric morbidity before lung cancer surgery. Multivariable logistic regression modeling revealed patients with preoperative alcohol abuse (odds ratio [OR]: 2.51, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.24, 5.08; P = 0.011) and those with bipolar disorder (OR: 2.91, 95% CI: 1.94, 4.53; P &lt; 0.001) to be associated with increased in-hospital mortality. Moreover, patients with preoperative psychiatric morbidities were associated with longer length of hospitalization (LOS), higher cost of hospitalization, and increased 1-year all-cause mortality.

CONCLUSION

In South Korea, patients with preoperative alcohol abuse and bipolar disorder were associated with increased in-hospital mortality after lung cancer surgery. Moreover, they were associated with increased 1-year all-cause mortality, longer LOS, and higher total costs for lung cancer surgery.

Missed Opportunities and Health Disparities for Advance Care Planning Before Elective Surgery in Older Adults

Importance

Advance care planning (ACP) prepares patients and caregivers for medical decision-making, yet it is underused in the perioperative surgical setting, particularly among older adults undergoing high-risk procedures who are at risk for postoperative complications. It is unknown what patient factors are associated with perioperative ACP documentation among older surgical patients.

Objective

To assess ACP documentation among high-risk patients 65 years and older undergoing elective surgery.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this observational cohort study including 3671 patients 65 years and older undergoing elective surgery at a tertiary academic center in California, electronic health record data were linked to the National Surgical Quality Improvement Project outcomes data and the California statewide death registry. The study was conducted from January 1 to December 31, 2019. Data were analyzed from January to May 2022.

Exposures

Elective surgery requiring an inpatient admission.

Main Outcomes and Measures

ACP documentation, defined as a discussion regarding goals of care documented in an ACP note, an advance directive, or a physician order for life-sustaining treatment (POLST) form, within 90 days before elective surgery requiring inpatient admission. Multivariate regression was performed to identify factors associated with missing ACP.

Results

Among 3671 patients (median [IQR] age 72 [65-94] years; 1784 [48.6%] female; 401 [10.9%] Asian, 155 [4.2%] Black, 284 [7.7%] Latino/Latina, 2647 [72.1%] White, and 184 [5.0%] of other races or ethnicities, including American Indian or Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, multiple races or ethnicities, other, and unknown or declined to respond, combined owing to small numbers), 539 (14.7%) had ACP documentation in the 90-day presurgery window. Of these 539, 448 (83.1%) had advance directives, and 60 (11.1%) had POLST forms. The 30-day and 1-year mortality were 0.7% (n = 27) and 6.6% (n = 244), respectively. Missing ACP was significantly associated with male sex (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.39; 95% CI, 1.14-1.69) and having a non-English preferred language (aOR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.18-2.79). Medicare insurance was significantly associated with having ACP (aOR for missing ACP, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.40-0.95).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, perioperative ACP was uncommon, particularly in men, individuals with a non-English preferred language, and those without Medicare insurance coverage. The perioperative setting may represent a missed opportunity for ACP for older surgical patients. When addressing ACP for surgical patients, particular attention should be paid to overcoming language-related disparities.

A risk scoring system integrating postoperative factors for predicting early mortality after major non-cardiac surgery

We aimed to develop a risk scoring system for 1-week and 1-month mortality after major non-cardiac surgery, and assess the impact of postoperative factors on 1-week and 1-month mortality using machine learning algorithms. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 21,510 patients who were transfused with red blood cells during non-cardiac surgery and collected pre-, intra-, and postoperative features. We derived two patient cohorts to predict 1-week and 1-month mortality and randomly split each of them into training and test cohorts at a ratio of 8:2. All the modeling steps were carried out solely based on the training cohorts, whereas the test cohorts were reserved for the evaluation of predictive performance. Incorporation of postoperative information demonstrated no significant benefit in predicting 1-week mortality but led to substantial improvement in predicting 1-month mortality. Risk scores predicting 1-week and 1-month mortality were associated with area under receiver operating characteristic curves of 84.58% and 90.66%, respectively. Brain surgery, amount of intraoperative red blood cell transfusion, preoperative platelet count, preoperative serum albumin, and American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status were included in the risk score predicting 1-week mortality. Postoperative day (POD) 5 (neutrophil count × mean platelet volume) to (lymphocyte count × platelet count) ratio, preoperative and POD 5 serum albumin, and occurrence of acute kidney injury were included in the risk score predicting 1-month mortality. Our scoring system advocates the importance of postoperative complete blood count differential and serum albumin to better predict mortality beyond the first week post-surgery.

Olfactory Dysfunction Predicts Frailty and Poor Postoperative Outcome in Older Patients Scheduled for Elective Non-Cardiac Surgery

OBJECTIVES

Frailty has been suggested to take part in the recently demonstrated link between olfactory dysfunction and overall mortality risk. Preoperative assessment of frailty is essential to detect the most vulnerable patients scheduled for surgery. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether olfactory dysfunction is a reliable predictor of preoperative frailty and postoperative outcome.

DESIGN

This was a single-center prospective observational study conducted between July and October 2020 in Brussels, Belgium.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

155 preoperative patients aged from 65 years old and scheduled for elective non-cardiac surgery.

MEASUREMENTS

Olfactory function was examined using the Sniffin' Sticks 12-item identification test. Frailty was assessed using the Edmonton Frail Scale (EFS) and handgrip strength. The clock drawing test (CDT) from the EFS was also analyzed separately to evaluate cognitive function. Patients were followed for postoperative complications and mortality over one year.

RESULTS

Olfactory dysfunction was significantly associated with the EFS score, anosmic patients having a higher median EFS score than normosmic patients (6[4-7] vs 4[2-5], p = .025). Anosmic patients had an increased odds of being frail after adjusting for possible confounding factors (OR: 6.19, 95% CI: 1.65-23.20, p = .007) and were more at risk of poor postoperative outcome (including complications and death) (OR: 4.33, 95% CI: 1.28-14.67, p = .018).

CONCLUSIONS

Olfactory dysfunction is associated with preoperative frailty determined by the EFS and with poor post-surgical outcome at one-year.

The neglected perioperative population of undiagnosed diabetics - a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is known to increase morbidity and 30-day mortality in adults undergoing non-cardiac surgery, but longer term outcomes are less studied. This study was done to explore how undiagnosed and known diabetes affect 30-day and one-year morbidity and mortality outcomes. The secondary aim was to study the prevalence of undiagnosed diabetics in our perioperative Asian surgical population.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of 2106 patients aged > 45 years undergoing non-cardiac surgery in a single tertiary hospital was performed. Undiagnosed diabetics were identified (HbA1c ≥6.5% or fasting blood glucose ≥126 mg/dL) and relevant demographic, clinical and surgical data were analyzed to elicit the relationship to adverse outcomes. Univariate analysis was first performed to identify significant variables with p-values ≤0.1, which were then analyzed using multiple logistic regression to calculate the adjusted odds ratio.

RESULTS

The prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes was 7.4%. The mean and median HbA1c of known diabetics were 7.9 and 7.5%, while the mean and median HbA1c for undiagnosed diabetics were 7.2 and 6.8% respectively. 36.4% of known diabetics and 20.5% of undiagnosed diabetics respectively had a random blood glucose > 200 mg/dL. Undiagnosed diabetics had a three-fold increase in 1-year mortality compared to non-diabetics (adjusted OR 3.46(1.80-6.49) p < 0.001) but this relationship was not significant between known and non-diabetics. Compared to non-diabetics, known diabetics were at increased risks of new-onset atrial fibrillation (aOR 2.48(1.01-6.25) p = 0.047), infection (aOR 1.49(1.07-2.07) p = 0.017), 30-day readmission (aOR 1.62(1.17-2.25) p = 0.004) and 30-day mortality (aOR 3.11(1.16-8.56) p = 0.025).

CONCLUSIONS

Although undiagnosed diabetics have biochemically less severe disease compared to known diabetics at the point of testing, they are at a one-year mortality disadvantage which is not seen among known diabetics. This worrying trend highlights the importance of identifying and treating diabetes. Congruent to previous studies, known diabetics have higher morbidity and 30-day mortality compared to non-diabetics.