Using Google Location History data to quantify fine-scale human mobility

Privacy and security concerns with passively collected location data for digital contact tracing among U.S. college students

People continue to use technology in new ways, and how governments harness digital information should consider privacy and security concerns. During COVID19, numerous countries deployed digital contact tracing that collect location data from user's smartphones. However, these apps had low adoption rates and faced opposition. We launched an interdisciplinary study to evaluate smartphone location data concerns among college students in the US. Using interviews and a large survey, we find that college students have higher concerns regarding privacy, and place greater trust in local government with their location data. We discuss policy recommendations for implementing improved contact tracing efforts.

Revealed versus potential spatial accessibility of healthcare and changing patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

Timely access to healthcare is essential but measuring access is challenging. Prior research focused on analyzing potential travel times to healthcare under optimal mobility scenarios that do not incorporate direct observations of human mobility, potentially underestimating the barriers to receiving care for many populations.

METHODS

We introduce an approach for measuring accessibility by utilizing travel times to healthcare facilities from aggregated and anonymized smartphone Location History data. We measure these revealed travel times to healthcare facilities in over 100 countries and juxtapose our findings with potential (optimal) travel times estimated using Google Maps directions. We then quantify changes in revealed accessibility associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

RESULTS

We find that revealed travel time differs substantially from potential travel time; in all but 4 countries this difference exceeds 30 minutes, and in 49 countries it exceeds 60 minutes. Substantial variation in revealed healthcare accessibility is observed and correlates with life expectancy (⍴=-0.70) and infant mortality (⍴=0.59), with this association remaining significant after adjusting for potential accessibility and wealth. The COVID-19 pandemic altered the patterns of healthcare access, especially for populations dependent on public transportation.

CONCLUSIONS

Our metrics based on empirical data indicate that revealed travel times exceed potential travel times in many regions. During COVID-19, inequitable accessibility was exacerbated. In conjunction with other relevant data, these findings provide a resource to help public health policymakers identify underserved populations and promote health equity by formulating policies and directing resources towards areas and populations most in need.

Nowcasting tourist nights spent using innovative human mobility data

The publication of tourism statistics often does not keep up with the highly dynamic tourism demand trends, especially critical during crises. Alternative data sources such as digital traces and web searches represent an important source to potentially fill this gap, since they are generally timely, and available at detailed spatial scale. In this study we explore the potential of human mobility data from the Google Community Mobility Reports to nowcast the number of monthly nights spent at sub-national scale across 11 European countries in 2020, 2021, and the first half of 2022. Using a machine learning implementation, we found that this novel data source is able to predict the tourism demand with high accuracy, and we compare its potential in the tourism domain to web search and mobile phone data. This result paves the way for a more frequent and timely production of tourism statistics by researchers and statistical entities, and their usage to support tourism monitoring and management, although privacy and surveillance concerns still hinder an actual data innovation transition.

A vision for incorporating human mobility in the study of human-wildlife interactions

As human activities increasingly shape land- and seascapes, understanding human-wildlife interactions is imperative for preserving biodiversity. Habitats are impacted not only by static modifications, such as roads, buildings and other infrastructure, but also by the dynamic movement of people and their vehicles occurring over shorter time scales. Although there is increasing realization that both components of human activity substantially affect wildlife, capturing more dynamic processes in ecological studies has proved challenging. Here we propose a conceptual framework for developing a 'dynamic human footprint' that explicitly incorporates human mobility, providing a key link between anthropogenic stressors and ecological impacts across spatiotemporal scales. Specifically, the dynamic human footprint integrates a range of metrics to fully acknowledge the time-varying nature of human activities and to enable scale-appropriate assessments of their impacts on wildlife behaviour, demography and distributions. We review existing terrestrial and marine human-mobility data products and provide a roadmap for how these could be integrated and extended to enable more comprehensive analyses of human impacts on biodiversity in the Anthropocene.

Cross-municipality migration and spread of tuberculosis in South Africa

Human migration facilitates the spread of infectious disease. However, little is known about the contribution of migration to the spread of tuberculosis in South Africa. We analyzed longitudinal data on all tuberculosis test results recorded by South Africa's National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS), January 2011-July 2017, alongside municipality-level migration flows estimated from the 2016 South African Community Survey. We first assessed migration patterns in people with laboratory-diagnosed tuberculosis and analyzed demographic predictors. We then quantified the impact of cross-municipality migration on tuberculosis incidence in municipality-level regression models. The NHLS database included 921,888 patients with multiple clinic visits with TB tests. Of these, 147,513 (16%) had tests in different municipalities. The median (IQR) distance travelled was 304 (163 to 536) km. Migration was most common at ages 20-39 years and rates were similar for men and women. In municipality-level regression models, each 1% increase in migration-adjusted tuberculosis prevalence was associated with a 0.47% (95% CI: 0.03% to 0.90%) increase in the incidence of drug-susceptible tuberculosis two years later, even after controlling for baseline prevalence. Similar results were found for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis. Accounting for migration improved our ability to predict future incidence of tuberculosis.

Bring Your Own Location Data: Use of Google Smartphone Location History Data for Environmental Health Research

BACKGROUND

Environmental exposures are commonly estimated using spatial methods, with most epidemiological studies relying on home addresses. Passively collected smartphone location data, like Google Location History (GLH) data, may present an opportunity to integrate existing long-term time-activity data.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to evaluate the potential use of GLH data for capturing long-term retrospective time-activity data for environmental health research.

METHODS

We included 378 individuals who participated in previous Global Positioning System (GPS) studies within the Washington State Twin Registry. GLH data consists of location information that has been routinely collected since 2010 when location sharing was enabled within android operating systems or Google apps. We created instructions for participants to download their GLH data and provide it through secure data transfer. We summarized the GLH data provided, compared it to available GPS data, and conducted an exposure assessment for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) air pollution.

RESULTS

Of 378 individuals contacted, we received GLH data from 61 individuals (16.1%) and 53 (14.0%) indicated interest but did not have historical GLH data available. The provided GLH data spanned 2010-2021 and included 34 million locations, capturing 66,677 participant days. The median number of days with GLH data per participant was 752, capturing 442 unique locations. When we compared GLH data to 2-wk GPS data (∼1.8 million points), 95% of GPS time-activity points were within 100m of GLH locations. We observed important differences between NO2 exposures assigned at home locations compared with GLH locations, highlighting the importance of GLH data to environmental exposure assessment.

DISCUSSION

We believe collecting GLH data is a feasible and cost-effective method for capturing retrospective time-activity patterns for large populations that presents new opportunities for environmental epidemiology. Cohort studies should consider adding GLH data collection to capture historical time-activity patterns of participants, employing a "bring-your-own-location-data" citizen science approach. Privacy remains a concern that needs to be carefully managed when using GLH data. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10829.

Movement under state and non-state authorities during COVID-19: Evidence from Lebanon

COVID-19 has presented governing authorities with challenging decisions that have required them to consider the tradeoffs between movement restriction and economic activity. We propose that non-state armed groups may make different decisions than state governments in response to these challenges. Drawing upon the case of Hezbollah in Lebanon, we investigate whether movement levels differed between areas with Hezbollah private governance in comparison to other areas of Lebanon. Using Google COVID-19 mobility data and a difference in differences model, we show that following the first COVID-related death in Lebanon, movement in districts with private Hezbollah governance decreased significantly less than in other districts. We present a number of potential reasons for this disparity, arguing that the most probable explanation is the relatively high level of economic assistance that Hezbollah provided to people living in areas under Hezbollah's authority, which led to comparatively lesser rates of movement decline.

Google Mobility Data as a Predictor for Tourism in Romania during the COVID-19 Pandemic—A Structural Equation Modeling Approach for Big Data

Our exploratory research focuses on the possible relations between tourism and the mobility of people, using short longitudinal data for mobility dimensions during the COVID-19 pandemic. One of these is real-time, exhaustive type data, published by Google, about the mobility of people in six different dimensions, (retail, parks, residential, workplace, grocery, and transit). The aim is to analyze the directional, intensity, causal, and complex interplay between the statistical data of tourism and mobility data for Romanian counties. The main objective is to determine if real-world big data can be linked with tourism arrivals in the first 14 months of the pandemic. We have found, using correlations, factorial analysis (PCA), regression models, and SEM, that there are strong and/or medium relationships between retail and parks and overnights, and weak or no relations between other mobility dimensions (workplace, transit). By applying factorial analysis (PCA), we have regrouped the six Google Mobility dimensions into two new factors that are good predictors for Romanian tourism at the county location. These findings can help provide a better understanding of the relationship between the real movement of people in different urban areas and the tourism phenomenon: the GM parks dimension best predicts tourism indicators (overnights), the GM residential dimension correlates inversely with the tourism indicator, and the rest of the GM indices are generally weak predictors for tourism. A more complex analysis could signal the potential and the character of tourism in different destinations, by territorially and chronologically determining the GM indices that are better linked with the tourism statistical indicators. Further research is required to establish forecasting models using Google Mobility data.

Internet of Things-based smart helmet to detect possible COVID-19 infections

At the beginning of 2020, while the world was celebrating New Year’s Eve, China’s headquarter of the World Health Organization came across a case of pneumonia in the city of Wuhan, China and was termed as coronavirus. Initially the symptoms were fever, cold, and cough; so thermal screening was done that could cause infection to the medical staff. In this chapter we discuss the design of the system known as smart helmet that has the capability to detect coronavirus automatically by using thermal imaging, which is used to capture the image with less human interaction. The thermal camera technology is integrated with smart helmets and combined with Internet of Things technology for monitoring of the screening process to get the real-time data. It is equipped with facial recognition technology; it can also display personal information of the infectee, which can automatically take temperature and can detect more infectee than normal thermal screening.

Domestic and international mobility trends in the United Kingdom during the COVID-19 pandemic: an analysis of facebook data

BACKGROUND

Since early March 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic across the United Kingdom has led to a range of social distancing policies, which resulted in changes to mobility across different regions. An understanding of how these policies impacted travel patterns over time and at different spatial scales is important for designing effective strategies, future pandemic planning and in providing broader insights on the population geography of the country. Crowd level data on mobile phone usage can be used as a proxy for population mobility patterns and provide a way of quantifying in near-real time the impact of social distancing measures on changes in mobility.

METHODS

Here we explore patterns of change in densities, domestic and international flows and co-location of Facebook users in the UK from March 2020 to March 2021.

RESULTS

We find substantial heterogeneities across time and region, with large changes observed compared to pre-pademic patterns. The impacts of periods of lockdown on distances travelled and flow volumes are evident, with each showing variations, but some significant reductions in co-location rates. Clear differences in multiple metrics of mobility are seen in central London compared to the rest of the UK, with each of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland showing significant deviations from England at times. Moreover, the impacts of rapid changes in rules on international travel to and from the UK are seen in substantial fluctuations in traveller volumes by destination.

CONCLUSIONS

While questions remain about the representativeness of the Facebook data, previous studies have shown strong correspondence with census-based data and alternative mobility measures, suggesting that findings here are valuable for guiding strategies.

Population Mobility, Lockdowns, and COVID-19 Control: An Analysis Based on Google Location Data and Doubling Time from India

Objectives

Physical distancing is a control measure against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Lockdowns are a strategy to enforce physical distancing in urban areas, but they are drastic measures. Therefore, we assessed the effectiveness of the lockdown measures taken in the world’s second-most populous country, India, by exploring their relationship with community mobility patterns and the doubling time of COVID-19.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective analysis based on community mobility patterns, the stringency index of lockdown measures, and the doubling time of COVID-19 cases in India between February 15 and April 26, 2020. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated between the stringency index, community mobility patterns, and the doubling time of COVID-19 cases. Multiple linear regression was applied to predict the doubling time of COVID-19.

Results

Community mobility drastically fell after the lockdown was instituted. The doubling time of COVID-19 cases was negatively correlated with population mobility patterns in outdoor areas (r = −0.45 to −0.58). The stringency index and outdoor mobility patterns were also negatively correlated (r = −0.89 to −0.95). Population mobility patterns (R² = 0.67) were found to predict the doubling time of COVID-19, and the model’s predictive power increased when the stringency index was also added (R² = 0.73).

Conclusions

Lockdown measures could effectively ensure physical distancing and reduce short-term case spikes in India. Therefore, lockdown measures may be considered for tailored implementation on an intermittent basis, whenever COVID-19 cases are predicted to exceed the health care system’s capacity to manage.

Trip duration drives shift in travel network structure with implications for the predictability of spatial disease spread

Human travel is one of the primary drivers of infectious disease spread. Models of travel are often used that assume the amount of travel to a specific destination decreases as cost of travel increases with higher travel volumes to more populated destinations. Trip duration, the length of time spent in a destination, can also impact travel patterns. We investigated the spatial patterns of travel conditioned on trip duration and find distinct differences between short and long duration trips. In short-trip duration travel networks, trips are skewed towards urban destinations, compared with long-trip duration networks where travel is more evenly spread among locations. Using gravity models to inform connectivity patterns in simulations of disease transmission, we show that pathogens with shorter generation times exhibit initial patterns of spatial propagation that are more predictable among urban locations. Further, pathogens with a longer generation time have more diffusive patterns of spatial spread reflecting more unpredictable disease dynamics.

During an epidemic of an infectious pathogen, cases of disease can be imported to new locations when people travel. The amount of time that an infected person spends in a destination (trip duration) determines how likely they are to infect others while travelling. In this study, we analyzed travel data and found specific spatial patterns in trip duration, where short-duration trips are more common between urban destinations and long-duration trips are evenly spread out among locations. To show how this spatial pattern impacts the spread of infectious diseases, we used data-driven models and simulations to show that pathogens with shorter generation times have patterns of spatial spread that are more predictable among urban locations. However, pathogens with longer generation times tend to spread along the long-duration travel networks that are more evenly distributed among locations giving them more unpredictable disease dynamics.

The use of smartphone-derived location data to evaluate participation following critical illness: A pilot observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Disability is common following critical illness, impacting the quality of life of survivors, and is difficult to measure. 'Participation' can be quantified as involvement in life outside of their home requiring movement from their home to other locations. Participation restriction is a key element of disability, and following critical illness, participation may be diminished. It may be possible to quantify this change using pre-existing smartphone data.

OBJECTIVES

The feasibility of extracting location data from smartphones of survivors of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and assessing participation, using location-based outcomes, during recovery from critical illness was evaluated.

METHODS

Fifty consecutively admitted, consenting adult survivors of non-elective admission to ICU of greater than 48-h duration were recruited to a prospective observational cohort study where they were followed up at 3 and 6 months following discharge. The feasibility of extracting location data from survivors' smartphones and creating location-derived outcomes assessing participation was investigated over three 28-d study periods: pre-ICU admission and at 3 and 6 months following discharge. The following were calculated: time spent at home; the number of destinations visited; linear distance travelled; and two 'activity spaces', a minimum convex polygon and standard deviation ellipse.

RESULTS

Results are median [interquartile range] or n (%). The number of successful extractions was 9/50 (18%), 12/39 (31%), and 13/33 (39%); the percentage of time spent at home was 61 [56-68]%, 77 [66-87]%, and 67 [58-77]% (P = 0.16); the number of destinations visited was 34 [18-64], 38 [22-63], and 65 [46-88] (P = 0.02); linear distance travelled was 367 [56-788], 251 [114-323], and 747 [326-933] km over 28 d (P = 0.02), pre-ICU admission and at 3 and 6 months following ICU discharge, respectively. Activity spaces were successfully created.

CONCLUSION

Limited smartphone ownership, missing data, and time-consuming data extraction limit current implementation of mass extraction of location data from patients' smartphones to aid prognostication or measure outcomes. The number of journeys taken and the linear distance travelled increased between 3 and 6 months, suggesting participation may improve over time.

Home alone? Effect of weather-induced behaviour on spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany

In early 2020 the world was struck by the epidemic of novel SARS-CoV-2 virus. Like many others, German government has introduced severe contact restrictions to limit the spread of infection. This paper analyses effects of weather on the spread of the disease under the described circumstances. We demonstrate that regions reported lower growth rates of the number of the infection cases after days with higher temperatures, no rain and low humidity. We argue that this effect is channelled through human behaviour. The evidence suggests that "good" weather attracts individuals to outdoor (safer) environments, thus, deterring people from indoor (less safe) environments. Understanding this relationship is important for improving the measures aiming at combating the spread of the virus.

Practical geospatial and sociodemographic predictors of human mobility

Understanding seasonal human mobility at subnational scales has important implications across sciences, from urban planning efforts to disease modelling and control. Assessing how, when, and where populations move over the course of the year, however, requires spatially and temporally resolved datasets spanning large periods of time, which can be rare, contain sensitive information, or may be proprietary. Here, we aim to explore how a set of broadly available covariates can describe typical seasonal subnational mobility in Kenya pre-COVID-19, therefore enabling better modelling of seasonal mobility across low- and middle-income country (LMIC) settings in non-pandemic settings. To do this, we used the Google Aggregated Mobility Research Dataset, containing anonymized mobility flows aggregated over users who have turned on the Location History setting, which is off by default. We combined this with socioeconomic and geospatial covariates from 2018 to 2019 to quantify seasonal changes in domestic and international mobility patterns across years. We undertook a spatiotemporal analysis within a Bayesian framework to identify relevant geospatial and socioeconomic covariates explaining human movement patterns, while accounting for spatial and temporal autocorrelations. Typical pre-pandemic mobility patterns in Kenya mostly consisted of shorter, within-county trips, followed by longer domestic travel between counties and international travel, which is important in establishing how mobility patterns changed post-pandemic. Mobility peaked in August and December, closely corresponding to school holiday seasons, which was found to be an important predictor in our model. We further found that socioeconomic variables including urbanicity, poverty, and female education strongly explained mobility patterns, in addition to geospatial covariates such as accessibility to major population centres and temperature. These findings derived from novel data sources elucidate broad spatiotemporal patterns of how populations move within and beyond Kenya, and can be easily generalized to other LMIC settings before the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding such pre-pandemic mobility patterns provides a crucial baseline to interpret both how these patterns have changed as a result of the pandemic, as well as whether human mobility patterns have been permanently altered once the pandemic subsides. Our findings outline key correlates of mobility using broadly available covariates, alleviating the data bottlenecks of highly sensitive and proprietary mobile phone datasets, which many researchers do not have access to. These results further provide novel insight on monitoring mobility proxies in the context of disease surveillance and control efforts through LMIC settings.

Assessing the Effect of Global Travel and Contact Restrictions on Mitigating the COVID-19 Pandemic

Travel restrictions and physical distancing have been implemented across the world to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, but studies are needed to understand their effectiveness across regions and time. Based on the population mobility metrics derived from mobile phone geolocation data across 135 countries or territories during the first wave of the pandemic in 2020, we built a metapopulation epidemiological model to measure the effect of travel and contact restrictions on containing COVID-19 outbreaks across regions. We found that if these interventions had not been deployed, the cumulative number of cases could have shown a 97-fold (interquartile range 79-116) increase, as of May 31, 2020. However, their effectiveness depended upon the timing, duration, and intensity of the interventions, with variations in case severity seen across populations, regions, and seasons. Additionally, before effective vaccines are widely available and herd immunity is achieved, our results emphasize that a certain degree of physical distancing at the relaxation of the intervention stage will likely be needed to avoid rapid resurgences and subsequent lockdowns.

Linking excess mortality to mobility data during the first wave of COVID-19 in England and Wales

Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented worldwide to curb the spread of COVID-19. However, the effectiveness of such governmental measures in reducing the mortality burden remains a key question of scientific interest and public debate. In this study, we leverage digital mobility data to assess the effects of reduced human mobility on excess mortality, focusing on regional data in England and Wales between February and August 2020. We estimate a robust association between mobility reductions and lower excess mortality, after adjusting for time trends and regional differences in a mixed-effects regression framework and considering a five-week lag between the two measures. We predict that, in the absence of mobility reductions, the number of excess deaths could have more than doubled in England and Wales during this period, especially in the London area. The study is one of the first attempts to quantify the effects of mobility reductions on excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Poverty and COVID-19 in Africa and Latin America

Since March 2020, governments have recommended or enacted lockdown policies to curb the spread of COVID-19. Yet, poorer segments of the population cannot afford to stay at home and must continue to work. In this paper, we test whether work-related mobility is effectively influenced by the local intensity of poverty. To do so, we exploit poverty data and Google mobility data for 242 regions of nine Latin American and African countries. We find that the drop in work-related mobility during the first lockdown period was indeed significantly lower in high-poverty regions compared to other regions. We also illustrate how higher poverty has induced a faster spread of the virus. The policy implication is that social protection measures in the form of food or cash trasfers must be complementary to physical distancing measures. Further research must evaluate how such transfers, when implemented, have attenuated the difference between poor and non-poor regions in terms of exposure to the virus.

The ethical use of high-performance computing and artificial intelligence: fighting COVID-19 at Barcelona Supercomputing Center

The COVID-19 pandemic has created an extraordinary medical, economic and humanitarian emergency. Artificial intelligence, in combination with other digital technologies, is being used as a tool to support the fight against the viral pandemic that has affected the entire world since the beginning of 2020. Barcelona Supercomputing Center collaborates in the battle against the coronavirus in different areas: the application of bioinformatics for the research on the virus and its possible treatments, the use of artificial intelligence, natural language processing and big data techniques to analyse the spread and impact of the pandemic, and the use of the MareNostrum 4 supercomputer to enable massive analysis on COVID-19 data. Many of these activities have included the use of personal and sensitive data of citizens, which, even during a pandemic, should be treated and handled with care. In this work we discuss our approach based on an ethical, transparent and fair use of this information, an approach aligned with the guidelines proposed by the European Union.

Association of the Timing of School Closings and Behavioral Changes With the Evolution of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic in the US

Importance

The consequences of school closures for children's health are profound, but existing evidence on their effectiveness in limiting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission is unsettled.

Objective

To determine the independent associations of voluntary behavioral change, school closures, and bans on large gatherings with the incidence and mortality due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Design, Setting, and Participants

This population-based, interrupted-time-series analysis of lagged independent variables used publicly available observational data from US states during a 60-day period from March 8 to May 18, 2020. The behavioral measures were collected from anonymized cell phone or internet data for individuals in the US and compared with a baseline of January 3 to February 6, 2020. Estimates were also controlled for several state-level characteristics.

Exposures

Days since school closure, days since a ban on gatherings of 10 or more people, and days since residents voluntarily conducted a 15% or more decline in time spent at work via Google Mobility data.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The natural log of 7-day mean COVID-19 incidence and mortality.

Results

During the study period, the rate of restaurant dining declined from 1 year earlier by a mean (SD) of 98.3% (5.2%) during the study period. Time at work declined by a mean (SD) of 40.0% (7.9%); time at home increased by a mean (SD) of 15.4% (3.7%). In fully adjusted models, an advance of 1 day in implementing mandatory school closures was associated with a 3.5% reduction (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.965; 95% CI, 0.946-0.984) in incidence, whereas each day earlier that behavioral change occurred was associated with a 9.3% reduction (IRR, 0.907; 95% CI, 0.890-0.925) in incidence. For mortality, each day earlier that school closures occurred was associated with a subsequent 3.8% reduction (IRR, 0.962; 95% CI, 0.926-0.998), and each day of advance in behavioral change was associated with a 9.8% reduction (IRR, 0.902; 95% CI, 0.869-0.936). Simulations suggest that a 2-week delay in school closures alone would have been associated with an additional 23 000 (95% CI, 2000-62 000) deaths, whereas a 2-week delay in voluntary behavioral change with school closures remaining the same would have been associated with an additional 140 000 (95% CI, 65 000-294 000) deaths.

Conclusions and Relevance

In light of the harm to children of closing schools, these findings suggest that policy makers should consider better leveraging the public's willingness to protect itself through voluntary behavioral change.

Changes of Spatiotemporal Pattern and Network Characteristic in Population Flow under COVID-19 Epidemic

The COVID-19 pandemic is a major problem facing humanity throughout the world. The rapid and accurate tracking of population flows may therefore be epidemiologically informative. This paper adopts a massive amount of daily population flow data (from January 10 to March 15, 2020) for China obtained from the Baidu Migration platform to analyze the changes of the spatiotemporal patterns and network characteristics in population flow during the pre-outbreak period, outbreak period, and post-peak period. The results show that (1) for temporal characteristics of population flow, the total population flow varies greatly between the three periods, with an overall trend of the pre-outbreak period flow > the post-peak period flow > the outbreak period flow. Impacted by the lockdown measures, the population flow in various provinces plunged drastically and remained low until the post-peak period, at which time it gradually increased. (2) For the spatial pattern, the pattern of population flow is divided by the geographic demarcation line known as the Hu (Heihe-Tengchong) Line, with a high-density interconnected network in the southeast half and a low-density serial-connection network in the northwest half. During the outbreak period, Wuhan city appeared as a hollow region in the population flow network; during the post-peak period, the population flow increased gradually, but it was mainly focused on intra-provincial flow. (3) For the network characteristic changes, during the outbreak period, the gap in the network status between cities at different administrative levels narrowed significantly. Thus, the feasibility of Baidu migration data, comparison with non-epidemic periods, and optimal implications are discussed. This paper mainly described the difference and specific information under non-normal situation compared with existing results under a normal situation, and analyzed the impact mechanism, which can provide a reference for local governments to make policy recommendations for economic recovery in the future under the epidemic period.

An approach to integrate population mobility patterns and sociocultural factors in communicable disease preparedness and response

Complex human movement patterns driven by a range of economic, health, social, and environmental factors influence communicable disease spread. Further, cross-border movement impacts disparate public health systems of neighboring countries, making an effective response to disease importation or exportation more challenging. Despite the array of quantitative techniques and social science approaches available to analyze movement patterns, there continues to be a dearth of methods within the applied public health setting to gather and use information about community-level mobility dynamics. Population Connectivity Across Borders (PopCAB) is a rapidly-deployable toolkit to characterize multisectoral movement patterns through community engagement using focus group discussions or key informant interviews, each with participatory mapping, and apply the results to tailor preparedness and response strategies. The Togo and Benin Ministries of Health (MOH), in collaboration with the Abidjan Lagos Corridor Organization and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, adapted and applied PopCAB to inform cross-border preparedness and response strategies for multinational Lassa fever outbreaks. Initially, the team implemented binational, national-level PopCAB activities in March 2017, highlighting details about a circular migration pathway across northern Togo, Benin, and Nigeria. After applying those results to respond to a cross-border Lassa fever outbreak in February 2018, the team designed an expanded PopCAB initiative in April 2018. In eight days, they trained 54 MOH staff who implemented 21 PopCAB focus group discussions in 14 cities with 224 community-level participants representing six stakeholder groups. Using the newly-identified 167 points of interest and 176 routes associated with a circular migration pathway across Togo, Benin, and Nigeria, the Togo and Benin MOH refined their cross-border information sharing and collaboration processes for Lassa fever and other communicable diseases, selected health facilities with increased community connectivity for enhanced training, and identified techniques to better integrate traditional healers in surveillance and community education strategies. They also integrated the final toolkit in national- and district-level public health preparedness plans. Integrating PopCAB in public health practice to better understand and accommodate population movement patterns can help countries mitigate the international spread of disease in support of improved global health security and International Health Regulations requirements.

Internet of Things for Current COVID-19 and Future Pandemics: an Exploratory Study

In recent years, the Internet of Things (IoT) has gained convincing research ground as a new research topic in a wide variety of academic and industrial disciplines, especially in healthcare. The IoT revolution is reshaping modern healthcare systems by incorporating technological, economic, and social prospects. It is evolving healthcare systems from conventional to more personalized healthcare systems through which patients can be diagnosed, treated, and monitored more easily. The current global challenge of the pandemic caused by the novel severe respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 presents the greatest global public health crisis since the pandemic influenza outbreak of 1918. At the time this paper was written, the number of diagnosed COVID-19 cases around the world had reached more than 31 million. Since the pandemic started, there has been a rapid effort in different research communities to exploit a wide variety of technologies to combat this worldwide threat, and IoT technology is one of the pioneers in this area. In the context of COVID-19, IoT-enabled/linked devices/applications are utilized to lower the possible spread of COVID-19 to others by early diagnosis, monitoring patients, and practicing defined protocols after patient recovery. This paper surveys the role of IoT-based technologies in COVID-19 and reviews the state-of-the-art architectures, platforms, applications, and industrial IoT-based solutions combating COVID-19 in three main phases, including early diagnosis, quarantine time, and after recovery.

Virus database annotations assist in tracing information on patients infected with emerging pathogens

The global pandemic of SARS-CoV-2 has disrupted human social activities. In restarting economic activities, successive outbreaks by new variants are concerning. Here, we evaluated the applicability of public database annotations to estimate the virulence, transmission trends and origins of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. Among the detectable multiple mutations, we retraced the mutation in the spike protein. With the aid of the protein database, structural modelling yielded a testable scientific hypothesis on viral entry to host cells. Simultaneously, annotations for locations and collection dates suggested that the variant virus emerged somewhere in the world in approximately February 2020, entered the USA and propagated nationwide with periodic sampling fluctuation likely due to an approximately 5-day incubation delay. Thus, public database annotations are useful for automated elucidation of the early spreading patterns in relation to human behaviours, which should provide objective reference for local governments for social decision making to contain emerging substrains. We propose that additional annotations for past paths and symptoms of the patients should further assist in characterizing the exact virulence and origins of emerging pathogens.

Open-Source 3D Printable GPS Tracker to Characterize the Role of Human Population Movement on Malaria Epidemiology in River Networks: A Proof-of-Concept Study in the Peruvian Amazon

Human movement affects malaria epidemiology at multiple geographical levels; however, few studies measure the role of human movement in the Amazon Region due to the challenging conditions and cost of movement tracking technologies. We developed an open-source low-cost 3D printable GPS-tracker and used this technology in a cohort study to characterize the role of human population movement in malaria epidemiology in a rural riverine village in the Peruvian Amazon. In this pilot study of 20 participants (mean age = 40 years old), 45,980 GPS coordinates were recorded over 1 month. Characteristic movement patterns were observed relative to the infection status and occupation of the participants. Applying two analytical animal movement ecology methods, utilization distributions (UDs) and integrated step selection functions (iSSF), we showed contrasting environmental selection and space use patterns according to infection status. These data suggested an important role of human movement in the epidemiology of malaria in the Peruvian Amazon due to high connectivity between villages of the same riverine network, suggesting limitations of current community-based control strategies. We additionally demonstrate the utility of this low-cost technology with movement ecology analysis to characterize human movement in resource-poor environments.

Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe

As rates of new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases decline across Europe owing to nonpharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing policies and lockdown measures, countries require guidance on how to ease restrictions while minimizing the risk of resurgent outbreaks. We use mobility and case data to quantify how coordinated exit strategies could delay continental resurgence and limit community transmission of COVID-19. We find that a resurgent continental epidemic could occur as many as 5 weeks earlier when well-connected countries with stringent existing interventions end their interventions prematurely. Further, we find that appropriate coordination can greatly improve the likelihood of eliminating community transmission throughout Europe. In particular, synchronizing intermittent lockdowns across Europe means that half as many lockdown periods would be required to end continent-wide community transmission.

Uncovering temporal changes in Europe's population density patterns using a data fusion approach

The knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of human population is vital for the study of cities, disaster risk management or planning of infrastructure. However, information on the distribution of population is often based on place-of-residence statistics from official sources, thus ignoring the changing population densities resulting from human mobility. Existing assessments of spatio-temporal population are limited in their detail and geographical coverage, and the promising mobile-phone records are hindered by issues concerning availability and consistency. Here, we present a multi-layered dasymetric approach that combines official statistics with geospatial data from emerging sources to produce and validate a European Union-wide dataset of population grids taking into account intraday and monthly population variations at 1 km² resolution. The results reproduce and systematically quantify known insights concerning the spatio-temporal population density structure of large European cities, whose daytime population we estimate to be, on average, 1.9 times higher than night time in city centers.

Mapping global variation in human mobility

The geographic variation of human movement is largely unknown, mainly due to a lack of accurate and scalable data. Here we describe global human mobility patterns, aggregated from over 300 million smartphone users. The data cover nearly all countries and 65% of Earth's populated surface, including cross-border movements and international migration. This scale and coverage enable us to develop a globally comprehensive human movement typology. We quantify how human movement patterns vary across sociodemographic and environmental contexts and present international movement patterns across national borders. Fitting statistical models, we validate our data and find that human movement laws apply at 10 times shorter distances and movement declines 40% more rapidly in low-income settings. These results and data are made available to further understanding of the role of human movement in response to rapid demographic, economic and environmental changes.

Review of Big Data Analytics, Artificial Intelligence and Nature-Inspired Computing Models towards Accurate Detection of COVID-19 Pandemic Cases and Contact Tracing

The emergence of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) which was declared a pandemic has spread to 210 countries worldwide. It has had a significant impact on health systems and economic, educational and social facets of contemporary society. As the rate of transmission increases, various collaborative approaches among stakeholders to develop innovative means of screening, detecting and diagnosing COVID-19's cases among human beings at a commensurate rate have evolved. Further, the utility of computing models associated with the fourth industrial revolution technologies in achieving the desired feat has been highlighted. However, there is a gap in terms of the accuracy of detection and prediction of COVID-19 cases and tracing contacts of infected persons. This paper presents a review of computing models that can be adopted to enhance the performance of detecting and predicting the COVID-19 pandemic cases. We focus on big data, artificial intelligence (AI) and nature-inspired computing (NIC) models that can be adopted in the current pandemic. The review suggested that artificial intelligence models have been used for the case detection of COVID-19. Similarly, big data platforms have also been applied for tracing contacts. However, the nature-inspired computing (NIC) models that have demonstrated good performance in feature selection of medical issues are yet to be explored for case detection and tracing of contacts in the current COVID-19 pandemic. This study holds salient implications for practitioners and researchers alike as it elucidates the potentials of NIC in the accurate detection of pandemic cases and optimized contact tracing.

Population mobility and adult orthopaedic trauma services during the COVID-19 pandemic: fragility fracture provision remains a priority

Aims

This study aims to define the epidemiology of trauma presenting to a single centre providing all orthopaedic trauma care for a population of ∼ 900,000 over the first 40 days of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to that presenting over the same period one year earlier. The secondary aim was to compare this with population mobility data obtained from Google.

Methods

A cross-sectional study of consecutive adult (> 13 years) patients with musculoskeletal trauma referred as either in-patients or out-patients over a 40-day period beginning on 5 March 2020, the date of the first reported UK COVID-19 death, was performed. This time period encompassed social distancing measures. This group was compared to a group of patients referred over the same calendar period in 2019 and to publicly available mobility data from Google.

Results

Orthopaedic trauma referrals reduced by 42% (1,056 compared to 1,820) during the study period, and by 58% (405 compared to 967) following national lockdown. Outpatient referrals reduced by 44%, and inpatient referrals by 36%, and the number of surgeries performed by 36%. The regional incidence of traumatic injury fell from 5.07 (95% confidence interval (CI) 4.79 to 5.35) to 2.94 (95% CI 2.52 to 3.32) per 100,000 population per day. Significant reductions were seen in injuries related to sports and alcohol consumption. No admissions occurred relating to major trauma (Injury Severity Score > 16) or violence against the person. Changes in population mobility and trauma volume from baseline correlated significantly (Pearson's correlation 0.749, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.85, p < 0.001). However, admissions related to fragility fractures remained unchanged compared to the 2019 baseline.

Conclusion

The profound changes in social behaviour and mobility during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic have directly correlated with a significant decrease in orthopaedic trauma referrals, but fragility fractures remained unaffected and provision for these patients should be maintained.Cite this article: Bone Joint Open 2020;1-6:182-189.

Activity-specific mobility of adults in a rural region of western Kenya

Improving rural household access to resources such as markets, schools and healthcare can help alleviate poverty in low-income settings. Current models of geographic accessibility to various resources rarely take individual variation into account due to a lack of appropriate data, yet understanding mobility at an individual level is key to knowing how people access their local resources. Our study used both an activity-specific survey and GPS trackers to evaluate how adults in a rural area of western Kenya accessed local resources. We calculated the travel time and time spent at six different types of resource and compared the GPS and survey data to see how well they matched. We found links between several demographic characteristics and the time spent at different resources, and that the GPS data reflected the survey data well for time spent at some types of resource, but poorly for others. We conclude that demography and activity are important drivers of mobility, and a better understanding of individual variation in mobility could be obtained through the use of GPS trackers on a wider scale.

Innovations in research and clinical care using patient-generated health data

Patient-generated health data (PGHD), or health-related data gathered from patients to help address a health concern, are used increasingly in oncology to make regulatory decisions and evaluate quality of care. PGHD include self-reported health and treatment histories, patient-reported outcomes (PROs), and biometric sensor data. Advances in wireless technology, smartphones, and the Internet of Things have facilitated new ways to collect PGHD during clinic visits and in daily life. The goal of the current review was to provide an overview of the current clinical, regulatory, technological, and analytic landscape as it relates to PGHD in oncology research and care. The review begins with a rationale for PGHD as described by the US Food and Drug Administration, the Institute of Medicine, and other regulatory and scientific organizations. The evidence base for clinic-based and remote symptom monitoring using PGHD is described, with an emphasis on PROs. An overview is presented of current approaches to digital phenotyping or device-based, real-time assessment of biometric, behavioral, self-report, and performance data. Analytic opportunities regarding PGHD are envisioned in the context of big data and artificial intelligence in medicine. Finally, challenges and solutions for the integration of PGHD into clinical care are presented. The challenges include electronic medical record integration of PROs and biometric data, analysis of large and complex biometric data sets, and potential clinic workflow redesign. In addition, there is currently more limited evidence for the use of biometric data relative to PROs. Despite these challenges, the potential benefits of PGHD make them increasingly likely to be integrated into oncology research and clinical care.

On the accuracy and potential of Google Maps location history data to characterize individual mobility for air pollution health studies

Appropriately characterizing spatiotemporal individual mobility is important in many research areas, including epidemiological studies focusing on air pollution. However, in many retrospective air pollution health studies, exposure to air pollution is typically estimated at the subjects' residential addresses. Individual mobility is often neglected due to lack of data, and exposure misclassification errors are expected. In this study, we demonstrate the potential of using location history data collected from smartphones by the Google Maps application for characterizing historical individual mobility and exposure. Here, one subject carried a smartphone installed with Google Maps, and a reference GPS data logger which was configured to record location every 10 s, for a period of one week. The retrieved Google Maps Location History (GMLH) data were then compared with the GPS data to evaluate their effectiveness and accuracy of the GMLH data to capture individual mobility. We also conducted an online survey (n = 284) to assess the availability of GMLH data among smartphone users in the US. We found the GMLH data reasonably captured the spatial movement of the subject during the one-week time period at up to 200 m resolution. We were able to accurately estimate the time the subject spent in different microenvironments, as well as the time the subject spent driving during the week. The estimated time-weighted daily exposures to ambient particulate matter using GMLH and the GPS data logger were also similar (error less than 1.2%). Survey results showed that GMLH data may be available for 61% of the survey sample. Considering the popularity of smartphones and the Google Maps application, detailed historical location data are expected to be available for large portion of the population, and results from this study highlight the potential of these location history data to improve exposure estimation for retrospective epidemiological studies.

Measuring mobility, disease connectivity and individual risk: a review of using mobile phone data and mHealth for travel medicine

RATIONALE FOR REVIEW

The increasing mobility of populations allows pathogens to move rapidly and far, making endemic or epidemic regions more connected to the rest of the world than at any time in history. However, the ability to measure and monitor human mobility, health risk and their changing patterns across spatial and temporal scales using traditional data sources has been limited. To facilitate a better understanding of the use of emerging mobile phone technology and data in travel medicine, we reviewed relevant work aiming at measuring human mobility, disease connectivity and health risk in travellers using mobile geopositioning data.

KEY FINDINGS

Despite some inherent biases of mobile phone data, analysing anonymized positions from mobile users could precisely quantify the dynamical processes associated with contemporary human movements and connectivity of infectious diseases at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Moreover, recent progress in mobile health (mHealth) technology and applications, integrating with mobile positioning data, shows great potential for innovation in travel medicine to monitor and assess real-time health risk for individuals during travel.

CONCLUSIONS

Mobile phones and mHealth have become a novel and tremendously powerful source of information on measuring human movements and origin-destination-specific risks of infectious and non-infectious health issues. The high penetration rate of mobile phones across the globe provides an unprecedented opportunity to quantify human mobility and accurately estimate the health risks in travellers. Continued efforts are needed to establish the most promising uses of these data and technologies for travel health.

Exploring the use of mobile phone data for national migration statistics

Statistics on internal migration are important for keeping estimates of subnational population numbers up-to-date as well as urban planning, infrastructure development and impact assessment, among other applications. However, migration flow statistics typically remain constrained by the logistics of infrequent censuses or surveys. The penetration rate of mobile phones is now high across the globe with rapid recent increases in ownership in low-income countries. Analysing the changing spatiotemporal distribution of mobile phone users through anonymized call detail records (CDRs) offers the possibility to measure migration at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Based on a dataset of 72 billion anonymized CDRs in Namibia from October 2010 to April 2014, we explore how internal migration estimates can be derived and modelled from CDRs at subnational and annual scales, and how precision and accuracy of these estimates compare to census-derived migration statistics. We also demonstrate the use of CDRs to assess how migration patterns change over time, with a finer temporal resolution compared to censuses. Moreover, we show how gravity-type spatial interaction models built using CDRs can accurately capture migration flows. Results highlight that estimates of migration flows made using mobile phone data is a promising avenue for complementing more traditional national migration statistics and obtaining more timely and local data.

Use of open mobile mapping tool to assess human mobility traceability in rural offline populations with contrasting malaria dynamics

Infectious disease dynamics are affected by human mobility more powerfully than previously thought, and thus reliable traceability data are essential. In rural riverine settings, lack of infrastructure and dense tree coverage deter the implementation of cutting-edge technology to collect human mobility data. To overcome this challenge, this study proposed the use of a novel open mobile mapping tool, GeoODK. This study consists of a purposive sampling of 33 participants in six villages with contrasting patterns of malaria transmission that demonstrates a feasible approach to map human mobility. The self-reported traceability data allowed the construction of the first human mobility framework in rural riverine villages in the Peruvian Amazon. The mobility spectrum in these areas resulted in travel profiles ranging from 2 hours to 19 days; and distances between 10 to 167 km. Most Importantly, occupational-related mobility profiles with the highest displacements (in terms of time and distance) were observed in commercial, logging, and hunting activities. These data are consistent with malaria transmission studies in the area that show villages in watersheds with higher human movement are concurrently those with greater malaria risk. The approach we describe represents a potential tool to gather critical information that can facilitate malaria control activities.

Fluctuations in anthropogenic nighttime lights from satellite imagery for five cities in Niger and Nigeria

Dynamic measures of human populations are critical for global health management but are often overlooked, largely because they are difficult to quantify. Measuring human population dynamics can be prohibitively expensive in under-resourced communities. Satellite imagery can provide measurements of human populations, past and present, to complement public health analyses and interventions. We used anthropogenic illumination from publicly accessible, serial satellite nighttime images as a quantifiable proxy for seasonal population variation in five urban areas in Niger and Nigeria. We identified population fluxes as the mechanistic driver of regional seasonal measles outbreaks. Our data showed 1) urban illumination fluctuated seasonally, 2) corresponding population fluctuations were sufficient to drive seasonal measles outbreaks, and 3) overlooking these fluctuations during vaccination activities resulted in below-target coverage levels, incapable of halting transmission of the virus. We designed immunization solutions capable of achieving above-target coverage of both resident and mobile populations. Here, we provide detailed data on brightness from 2000–2005 for 5 cities in Niger and Nigeria and detailed methodology for application to other populations.

Seasonal and interannual risks of dengue introduction from South-East Asia into China, 2005-2015

Due to worldwide increased human mobility, air-transportation data and mathematical models have been widely used to measure risks of global dispersal of pathogens. However, the seasonal and interannual risks of pathogens importation and onward transmission from endemic countries have rarely been quantified and validated. We constructed a modelling framework, integrating air travel, epidemiological, demographical, entomological and meteorological data, to measure the seasonal probability of dengue introduction from endemic countries. This framework has been applied retrospectively to elucidate spatiotemporal patterns and increasing seasonal risk of dengue importation from South-East Asia into China via air travel in multiple populations, Chinese travelers and local residents, over a decade of 2005-15. We found that the volume of airline travelers from South-East Asia into China has quadrupled from 2005 to 2015 with Chinese travelers increased rapidly. Following the growth of air traffic, the probability of dengue importation from South-East Asia into China has increased dramatically from 2005 to 2015. This study also revealed seasonal asymmetries of transmission routes: Sri Lanka and Maldives have emerged as origins; neglected cities at central and coastal China have been increasingly vulnerable to dengue importation and onward transmission. Compared to the monthly occurrence of dengue reported in China, our model performed robustly for importation and onward transmission risk estimates. The approach and evidence could facilitate to understand and mitigate the changing seasonal threat of arbovirus from endemic regions.