Geographic variation in the response of Culex pipiens life history traits to temperature

Plasticity in mosquito size and thermal tolerance across a latitudinal climate gradient

Variation in heat tolerance among populations can determine whether a species is able to cope with ongoing climate change. Such variation may be especially important for ectotherms whose body temperatures, and consequently, physiological processes, are regulated by external conditions. Additionally, differences in body size are often associated with latitudinal clines, thought to be driven by climate gradients. While studies have begun to explore variation in body size and heat tolerance within species, our understanding of these patterns across large spatial scales, particularly regarding the roles of plasticity and genetic differences, remains incomplete. Here, we examine body size, as measured by wing length, and thermal tolerance, as measured by the time to immobilisation at high temperatures ("thermal knockdown"), in populations of the mosquito Aedes sierrensis collected from across a large latitudinal climate gradient spanning 1300 km (34-44° N). We find that mosquitoes collected from lower latitudes and warmer climates were more tolerant of high temperatures than those collected from higher latitudes and colder climates. Moreover, body size increased with latitude and decreased with temperature, a pattern consistent with James' rule, which appears to be a result of plasticity rather than genetic variation. Our results suggest that warmer environments produce smaller and more thermally tolerant populations.

Drivers and epidemiological patterns of West Nile virus in Serbia

Background

West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen in Serbia, where it has been detected as a cause of infection in humans since 2012. We analyzed and modelled WNV transmission patterns in the country between 2012 and 2023.

Methods

We applied a previously developed modelling approach to quantify epidemiological parameters of interest and to identify the most important environmental drivers of the force of infection (FOI) by means of statistical analysis in the human population in the country.

Results

During the study period, 1,387 human cases were recorded, with substantial heterogeneity across years. We found that spring temperature is of paramount importance for WNV transmission, as FOI magnitude and peak timing are positively associated with it. Furthermore, FOI is also estimated to be greater in regions with a larger fraction of older adult people, who are at higher risk to develop severe infections.

Conclusion

Our results highlight that temperature plays a key role in shaping WNV outbreak magnitude in Serbia, confirming the association between spring climatic conditions and WNV human transmission risk and thus pointing out the importance of this factor as a potential early warning predictor for timely application of preventive and control measures.

Culex-Transmitted Diseases: Mechanisms, Impact, and Future Control Strategies using Wolbachia

Mosquitoes of the Culex genus are responsible for a large burden of zoonotic virus transmission globally. Collectively, they play a significant role in the transmission of medically significant diseases such as Japanese encephalitis virus and West Nile virus. Climate change, global trade, habitat transformation and increased urbanisation are leading to the establishment of Culex mosquitoes in new geographical regions. These novel mosquito incursions are intensifying concerns about the emergence of Culex-transmitted diseases and outbreaks in previously unaffected areas. New mosquito control methods are currently being developed and deployed globally. Understanding the complex interaction between pathogens and mosquitoes is essential for developing new control strategies for Culex species mosquitoes. This article reviews the role of Culex mosquitos as vectors of zoonotic disease, discussing the transmission of viruses across different species, and the potential use of Wolbachia technologies to control disease spread. By leveraging the insights gained from recent successful field trials of Wolbachia against Aedes-borne diseases, we comprehensively discuss the feasibility of using this technique to control Culex mosquitoes and the potential for the development of next generational Wolbachia-based control methods.

Population-specific thermal responses contribute to regional variability in arbovirus transmission with changing climates

Temperature is increasing globally, and vector-borne diseases are particularly responsive to such increases. While it is known that temperature influences mosquito life history traits, transmission models have not historically considered population-specific effects of temperature. We assessed the interaction between Culex pipiens population and temperature in New York State (NYS) and utilized novel empirical data to inform predictive models of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission. Genetically and regionally distinct populations from NYS were reared at various temperatures, and life history traits were monitored and used to inform trait-based models. Variation in Cx. pipiens life history traits and population-dependent thermal responses account for a predicted 2.9°C difference in peak transmission that is reflected in regional differences in WNV prevalence. We additionally identified genetic signatures that may contribute to distinct thermal responses. Together, these data demonstrate how population variation contributes to significant geographic variability in arbovirus transmission with changing climates.

Interindividual variation among Culex pipiens larvae in terms of thermal response

This study aims to determine the phenological characteristics of thermal responses in the larvae of a Culex pipiens complex field population at the individual level under the influence of thermal regime of its habitat. The analysis is based on a structured population model quantifying the thermal responses of development time and survival under variable conditions and characterising the variety between the larvae (interindividual variety). During the study performed in Turkish Thrace on a monthly basis between May 2021 and June 2022, a total of 3744 larvae were reared as peer larval cohorts and 2330 larvae as siblings in artificial containers to be fully exposed to the natural thermal condition that was recorded hourly. The development process of larvae was monitored daily from egg to adult. As a result, a total of 4788 adult mosquitoes emerged, with a development period ranging from 8 to 52 days in the females and 7 to 50 days in the males, and the survival rate was found to range from 0% to 100%. Both parameters varied by month and individuals, and the variations manifested itself, particularly in the colder periods. The results indicate that the variation between the individuals in terms of thermal response in the larvae of C. pipiens, along with the thermal acclimation ability, appears to be fate determinant in resisting fluctuating thermal regimes, surviving in concurrent climate change and adapting to new conditions with modifications in the seasonal phenology, such as maintaining reproductive dynamics throughout the winter thanks to global warming.

The effect of temperature on the boundary conditions of West Nile virus circulation in Europe

West Nile virus (WNV) is a vector-borne flavivirus that causes an increasing number of human and equine West Nile fever cases in Europe. While the virus has been present in the Mediterranean basin and the Balkans since the 1960s, recent years have witnessed its northward expansion, with the first human cases reported in Germany in 2018 and the Netherlands in 2020. WNV transmission and amplification within mosquitoes are temperature-dependent. This study applies a mathematical modelling approach to assess the conditions under which WNV circulation occurs based on the proportion of mosquito bites on WNV-competent birds (dilution), vector-host ratios, mosquito season length and the observed daily temperature data. We modelled five distinct European regions where previous WNV circulation has been observed within the Netherlands, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Greece. We observed that the number of days in which the basic reproduction number (R0) is above one, increased over the last 40 years in all five regions. In the Netherlands, the number of days in which the R0 is above one, is 70% lower than in Spain. The temperature in Greece, Spain and Italy allowed for circulation under low vector-host ratios, and at a high dilution. On the other hand in the Netherlands and Germany, given the observed daily temperature, the thresholds for circulation requires a lower dilution and higher vector-host ratios. For the Netherlands, a short window of introductions between late May and mid-June would result in detectable outbreaks. Our findings revealed that the temperate maritime climate of the Netherlands allows WNV circulation primarily during warmer summers, and only under high vector-host ratios. This research contributes valuable insights into the dynamic relationship between temperature, vector properties, and WNV transmission, offering guidance for proactive strategies in addressing this emerging health threat in Europe.

The Role of Temperature, Wind Speed, and Precipitation on the Abundance of Culex Species and West Nile Virus Infection Rate in Rural West-Central Illinois

While most research on West Nile virus (WNV) and its main vector, the Culex mosquito, has been conducted in laboratory or urban settings, studies with field-caught mosquitoes in rural areas, such as west-central Illinois, are lacking. The objective of this research was to investigate key abiotic factors using macroclimate data, including temperature, precipitation, and wind speed, to determine their influence on field-caught mosquito abundance in 4 rural counties in Illinois from 2014 to 2016. Additionally, the relationship between minimum infection rate (MIR) and thermal time was examined. Using gravid traps at 15 sites, Culex mosquitoes were collected twice a week. A total of 5,255 adult female Culex mosquitoes (Cx. pipiens, Cx. quinquefasciatus, and Cx. restuans) were collected in 2014; 9,138 in 2015; and 5,702 in 2016. Regression models were developed based on outcomes of relationships between field-caught mosquitoes and abiotic factors. Precipitation and thermal time had the most significant relationship with mosquito abundance (r2 = 0.993 and r2 = 0.993, respectively), while wind speed was less (r2 = 0.714). The greatest number of Culex and the highest annual MIR were observed in 2015, which was also the driest of the 3 sampling seasons. Mosquito abundance was observed to increase with warmer degree days and MIR was found to increase with abundance in mosquitoes. These models can be used for other mosquito surveillance and monitoring studies in various climate types and environments.

Field evaluation of an automated mosquito surveillance system which classifies Aedes and Culex mosquitoes by genus and sex

BACKGROUND

Mosquito-borne diseases are a major concern for public and veterinary health authorities, highlighting the importance of effective vector surveillance and control programs. Traditional surveillance methods are labor-intensive and do not provide high temporal resolution, which may hinder a full assessment of the risk of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission. Emerging technologies for automated remote mosquito monitoring have the potential to address these limitations; however, few studies have tested the performance of such systems in the field.

METHODS

In the present work, an optical sensor coupled to the entrance of a standard mosquito suction trap was used to record 14,067 mosquito flights of Aedes and Culex genera at four temperature regimes in the laboratory, and the resulting dataset was used to train a machine learning (ML) model. The trap, sensor, and ML model, which form the core of an automated mosquito surveillance system, were tested in the field for two classification purposes: to discriminate Aedes and Culex mosquitoes from other insects that enter the trap and to classify the target mosquitoes by genus and sex. The field performance of the system was assessed using balanced accuracy and regression metrics by comparing the classifications made by the system with those made by the manual inspection of the trap.

RESULTS

The field system discriminated the target mosquitoes (Aedes and Culex genera) with a balanced accuracy of 95.5% and classified the genus and sex of those mosquitoes with a balanced accuracy of 88.8%. An analysis of the daily and seasonal temporal dynamics of Aedes and Culex mosquito populations was also performed using the time-stamped classifications from the system.

CONCLUSIONS

This study reports results for automated mosquito genus and sex classification using an optical sensor coupled to a mosquito trap in the field with highly balanced accuracy. The compatibility of the sensor with commercial mosquito traps enables the sensor to be integrated into conventional mosquito surveillance methods to provide accurate automatic monitoring with high temporal resolution of Aedes and Culex mosquitoes, two of the most concerning genera in terms of arbovirus transmission.

Empirical dynamic modelling and enhanced causal analysis of short-length Culex abundance timeseries with vector correlation metrics

Employing Empirical Dynamic Modelling we investigate whether model free methods could be applied in the study of Culex mosquitoes in Northern Greece. Applying Simplex Projection and S-Map algorithms on yearly timeseries of maximum abundances from 2011 to 2020 we successfully predict the decreasing trend in the maximum number of mosquitoes which was observed in the rural area of Thessaloniki during 2021. Leveraging the use of vector correlation metrics we were able to deduce the main environmental factors driving mosquito abundance such as temperature, rain and wind during 2012 and study the causal interaction between neighbouring populations in the industrial area of Thessaloniki between 2019 and 2020. In all three cases a chaotic and non-linear behaviour of the underlying system was observed. Given the health risk associated with the presence of mosquitoes as vectors of viral diseases these results hint to the usefulness of EDM methods in entomological studies as guides for the construction of more accurate and realistic mechanistic models which are indispensable to public health authorities for the design of targeted control strategies and health prevention measures.

Mosquito thermal tolerance is remarkably constrained across a large climatic range

How mosquitoes may respond to rapid climate warming remains unknown for most species, but will have major consequences for their future distributions, with cascading impacts on human well-being, biodiversity and ecosystem function. We investigated the adaptive potential of a wide-ranging mosquito species, Aedes sierrensis, across a large climatic gradient by conducting a common garden experiment measuring the thermal limits of mosquito life-history traits. Although field-collected populations originated from vastly different thermal environments that spanned over 1200 km, we found limited variation in upper thermal tolerance between populations. In particular, the upper thermal limits of all life-history traits varied by less than 3°C across the species range and, for most traits, did not differ significantly between populations. For one life-history trait-pupal development rate-we did detect significant variation in upper thermal limits between populations, and this variation was strongly correlated with source temperatures, providing evidence of local thermal adaptation for pupal development. However, we found that maximum environmental temperatures across most of the species' range already regularly exceed the highest upper thermal limits estimated under constant temperatures. This result suggests that strategies for coping with and/or avoiding thermal extremes are likely key components of current and future mosquito thermal tolerance.

Mosquito thermal tolerance is remarkably constrained across a large climatic range

How mosquitoes may respond to rapid climate warming remains unknown for most species, but will have major consequences for their future distributions, with cascading impacts on human well-being, biodiversity, and ecosystem function. We investigated the adaptive potential of a wide-ranging mosquito species, Aedes sierrensis, across a large climatic gradient by conducting a common garden experiment measuring the thermal limits of mosquito life history traits. Although field-collected populations originated from vastly different thermal environments that spanned over 1,200 km, we found remarkably limited variation in upper thermal tolerance between populations, with the upper thermal limits of fitness varying by <1°C across the species range. For one life history trait-pupal development rate-we did detect significant variation in upper thermal limits between populations, and this variation was strongly correlated with source temperatures, providing evidence of local thermal adaptation for pupal development. However, we found environmental temperatures already regularly exceed our highest estimated upper thermal limits throughout most of the species range, suggesting limited potential for mosquito thermal tolerance to evolve on pace with warming. Strategies for avoiding high temperatures such as diapause, phenological shifts, and behavioral thermoregulation are likely important for mosquito persistence.

Effects of climatic and environmental factors on mosquito population inferred from West Nile virus surveillance in Greece

Mosquito-borne diseases' impact on human health is among the most prominent of all communicable diseases. With limited pool of tools to contrast these diseases, public health focus remains preventing mosquito-human contacts. Applying a hierarchical spatio-temporal Bayesian model on West Nile virus (WNV) surveillance data from Greece, we aimed to investigate the impact of climatic and environmental factors on Culex mosquitoes' population. Our spatio-temporal analysis confirmed climatic factors as major drivers of WNV-transmitting-Culex mosquitoes population dynamics, with temperature and long periods of moderate-to-warm climate having the strongest positive effect on mosquito abundance. Conversely, rainfall, high humidity, and wind showed a negative impact. The results suggest the presence of statistically significant differences in the effect of regional and seasonal characteristics, highlighting the complex interplay between climatic, geographical and environmental factors in the dynamics of mosquito populations. This study may represent a relevant tool to inform public health policymakers in planning preventive measures.

Impact of larvae of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus on larvae of the Culex pipiens complex from Germany in laboratory co-breeding studies

Since the first detection of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) eggs in Germany in 2007, several populations of this species have established in Germany. Although colloquially Ae. albopictus is called an 'invasive species', it is not considered 'invasive' and therefore to be controlled according to the European Union (EU) Environmental and Nature Protection Act since evidence of displacement of native species is missing. To test the competitive potential of Ae. albopictus towards mosquito species native to Germany, laboratory experiments were conducted with larvae of this species and indigenous Cx. pipiens complex species/biotypes. First instar larvae of Ae. albopictus and of one of the native taxa were exposed to different temperatures and fed with different food sources. The ratio of individuals developing into adults as well as the time the larvae needed for development were taken as a measure of competitive outcome. In addition, the size of emerging adults was compared between control and experimental groups. Regarding developmental time, no significant differences were found between treatments and controls while significant differences were found regarding developmental rate and average wing size of individuals. Because no evidence of competitive repression of the native species was found, Ae. albopictus cannot be included in the EU list of invasive species.

Impact of Human Activities on Disease-Spreading Mosquitoes in Urban Areas

Urbanization is one of the leading global trends of the twenty-first century that has a significant impact on health. Among health challenges caused by urbanization, the relationship of urbanization between emergence and the spread of mosquito-borne infectious diseases (MBIDs) is a great public health concern. Urbanization processes encompass social, economic, and environmental changes that directly impact the biology of mosquito species. In particular, urbanized areas experience higher temperatures and pollution levels than outlying areas but also favor the development of infrastructures and objects that are favorable to mosquito development. All these modifications may influence mosquito life history traits and their ability to transmit diseases. This review aimed to summarize the impact of urbanization on mosquito spreading in urban areas and the risk associated with the emergence of MBIDs. Moreover, mosquitoes are considered as holobionts, as evidenced by numerous studies highlighting the role of mosquito-microbiota interactions in mosquito biology. Taking into account this new paradigm, this review also represents an initial synthesis on how human-driven transformations impact microbial communities in larval habitats and further interfere with mosquito behavior and life cycle in urban areas.

No Effect of Realistic Microplastic Exposure on Growth and Development of Wild-caught Culex (Diptera: Culicidae) Mosquitoes

Microplastic (MP) pollution is a threat to environments around the world and mosquitoes are particularly affected because of their high chance of encountering MP as larvae. Mosquitoes have been shown to readily consume microplastics and they have a significant impact on health in society, yet we have limited knowledge on the effects of MP exposure on fitness-related traits. Additionally, the data we do have come primarily from studies that have used unrealistically high microplastic concentrations, or unrealistic methods of exposure. Here we exposed wild-type first instar Culex pipiens and Culex tarsalis larvae to two 4.8-5.8 μm polystyrene microplastic concentrations (0 particles/ml, 200 particles/ml, 20,000 particles/ml) to evaluate the effect of MP exposure on body size, development, and growth rate. We found no effect of microplastics on any of the traits in either species. These results indicate microplastic exposures comparable to levels found in nature have minimal effects on these fitness-related traits. Future directions for this work include examining whether the effects of MP exposure are exacerbated when evaluated in combination with other common stressors, such as warming temperatures, pesticides, and food limitation.

Assessing the role of family level variation and heat shock gene expression in the thermal stress response of the mosquito Aedes aegypti

The geographical range of the mosquito vector for many human disease-causing viruses, Aedes aegypti, is expanding, in part owing to changing climate. The capacity of this species to adapt to thermal stress will affect its future distributions. It is unclear how much heritable genetic variation may affect the upper thermal limits of mosquito populations over the long term. Nor are the genetic pathways that confer thermal tolerance fully understood. In the short term, cells induce a plastic, protective response known as 'heat shock'. Using a physiological 'knockdown' assay, we investigated mosquito thermal tolerance to characterize the genetic architecture of the trait. While families representing the extreme ends of the distribution for knockdown time differed from one another, the trait exhibited low but non-zero broad-sense heritability. We then explored whether families representing thermal performance extremes differed in their heat shock response by measuring gene expression of heat shock protein-encoding genes Hsp26, Hsp83 and Hsp70. Contrary to prediction, the families with higher thermal tolerance demonstrated less Hsp expression. This pattern may indicate that other mechanisms of heat tolerance, rather than heat shock, may underpin the stress response, and the costly production of HSPs may instead signal poor adaptation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease ecology and evolution in a changing world'.

Culex pipiens distribution in Tunisia: Identification of suitable areas through Random Forest and MaxEnt approaches

BACKGROUND

Tunisia has experienced several West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks since 1997. Yet, there is limited information on the spatial distribution of the main WNV mosquito vector Culex pipiens suitability at the national level.

OBJECTIVES

In the present study, our aim was to predict and evaluate the potential and current distribution of Cx. pipiens in Tunisia.

METHODS

To this end, two species distribution models were used, i.e. MaxEnt and Random Forest. Occurrence records for Cx. pipiens were obtained from adult and larvae sampled in Tunisia from 2014 to 2017. Climatic and human factors were used as predictors to model the Cx. pipiens geographical distribution. Mean decrease accuracy and mean decrease Gini indices were calculated to evaluate the importance of the impact of different environmental and human variables on the probability distribution of Cx. pipiens.

RESULTS

Suitable habitats were mainly distributed next to oases, in the north and eastern part of the country. The most important predictor was the population density in both models. The study found out that the governorates of Monastir, Nabeul, Manouba, Ariana, Bizerte, Gabes, Medenine and Kairouan are at highest epidemic risk.

CONCLUSIONS

The potential distribution of Cx. pipiens coincides geographically with the observed distribution of the disease in humans in Tunisia. Our study has the potential for driving control effort in the fight against West Nile vector in Tunisia.

Dispersion routes of the main vectors of human malaria in the Americas: Genetic evidence from the mitochondrial COI gene

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

In America, of the 44 species of Anopheles, nine are main vectors of malaria and, of these, genetic information exists for seven. Hence, this study sought to know the gene flow and diversity of the seven principal vectors of malaria at the Americas level.

METHODS

For the seven species and the sequences of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase I (COI) gene obtained from the GenBank and Bold System, genetic analyzes of populations and genetic structure were performed and haplotype networks and phylogenetic trees were obtained.

RESULTS

For the seven species, 1440 sequences were analyzed and 519 haplotypes were detected. The Hd and π values were higher within a continental context than by countries. Neutrality tests indicated positive and negative values with most of these being significant (p < 0.05). Phylogenetic analyses for all the species recovered three clades with no geographic pattern among them.

INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSION

Studies suggest that native species of Anopheles from the Americas have greater haplotype diversity and low genetic differentiation due to the lack of physical barriers to impede gene flow among these populations. Moreover, all the species are interconnected by roadways. This scenario complicates the epidemiological picture of malaria in the Americas.

Human Impacts on Insect Chemical Communication in the Anthropocene

The planet is presently undergoing dramatic changes caused by human activities. We are living in the era of the Anthropocene, where our activities directly affect all living organisms on Earth. Insects constitute a major part of the world’s biodiversity and currently, we see dwindling insect biomass but also outbreaks of certain populations. Most insects rely on chemical communication to locate food, mates, and suitable oviposition sites, but also to avoid enemies and detrimental microbes. Emissions of, e.g., CO2, NOx, and ozone can all affect the chemical communication channel, as can a rising temperature. Here, we present a review of the present state of the art in the context of anthropogenic impact on insect chemical communication. We concentrate on present knowledge regarding fruit flies, mosquitoes, moths, and bark beetles, as well as presenting our views on future developments and needs in this emerging field of research. We include insights from chemical, physiological, ethological, and ecological directions and we briefly present a new international research project, the Max Planck Centre for Next Generation Insect Chemical Ecology (nGICE), launched to further increase our understanding of the impact of human activities on insect olfaction and chemical communication.

Updated distribution maps of predominant Culex mosquitoes across the Americas

BACKGROUND

Estimates of the geographical distribution of Culex mosquitoes in the Americas have been limited to state and provincial levels in the United States and Canada and based on data from the 1980s. Since these estimates were made, there have been many more documented observations of mosquitoes and new methods have been developed for species distribution modeling. Moreover, mosquito distributions are affected by environmental conditions, which have changed since the 1980s. This calls for updated estimates of these distributions to understand the risk of emerging and re-emerging mosquito-borne diseases.

METHODS

We used contemporary mosquito data, environmental drivers, and a machine learning ecological niche model to create updated estimates of the geographical range of seven predominant Culex species across North America and South America: Culex erraticus, Culex nigripalpus, Culex pipiens, Culex quinquefasciatus, Culex restuans, Culex salinarius, and Culex tarsalis.

RESULTS

We found that Culex mosquito species differ in their geographical range. Each Culex species is sensitive to both natural and human-influenced environmental factors, especially climate and land cover type. Some prefer urban environments instead of rural ones, and some are limited to tropical or humid areas. Many are found throughout the Central Plains of the USA.

CONCLUSIONS

Our updated contemporary Culex distribution maps may be used to assess mosquito-borne disease risk. It is critical to understand the current geographical distributions of these important disease vectors and the key environmental predictors structuring their distributions not only to assess current risk, but also to understand how they will respond to climate change. Since the environmental predictors structuring the geographical distribution of mosquito species varied, we hypothesize that each species may have a different response to climate change.

Experimental Evolution of West Nile Virus at Higher Temperatures Facilitates Broad Adaptation and Increased Genetic Diversity

West Nile virus (WNV, Flaviviridae, Flavivirus) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus introduced to North America in 1999. Since 1999, the Earth's average temperature has increased by 0.6 °C. Mosquitoes are ectothermic organisms, reliant on environmental heat sources. Temperature impacts vector-virus interactions which directly influence arbovirus transmission. RNA viral replication is highly error-prone and increasing temperature could further increase replication rates, mutation frequencies, and evolutionary rates. The impact of temperature on arbovirus evolutionary trajectories and fitness landscapes has yet to be sufficiently studied. To investigate how temperature impacts the rate and extent of WNV evolution in mosquito cells, WNV was experimentally passaged 12 times in Culex tarsalis cells, at 25 °C and 30 °C. Full-genome deep sequencing was used to compare genetic signatures during passage, and replicative fitness was evaluated before and after passage at each temperature. Our results suggest adaptive potential at both temperatures, with unique temperature-dependent and lineage-specific genetic signatures. Further, higher temperature passage was associated with significantly increased replicative fitness at both temperatures and increases in nonsynonymous mutations. Together, these data indicate that if similar selective pressures exist in natural systems, increases in temperature could accelerate emergence of high-fitness strains with greater phenotypic plasticity.

How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?

The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector species. For these taxa, estimating climate adaptive potential is critical for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. Here, we demonstrate how a simple theoretical framework used in conservation biology-evolutionary rescue models-can be used to investigate the potential for climate adaptation in these taxa, using mosquito thermal adaptation as a focal case. Synthesizing current evidence, we find that short mosquito generation times, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection favor thermal adaptation. However, knowledge gaps about the extent of phenotypic and genotypic variation in thermal tolerance within mosquito populations, the environmental sensitivity of selection, and the role of phenotypic plasticity constrain our ability to make more precise estimates. We describe how common garden and selection experiments can be used to fill these data gaps. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of mosquito climate adaptation on disease transmission using Aedes aegypti-transmitted dengue virus in Northern Brazil as a case study. The approach outlined here can be applied to any disease vector or pest species and type of environmental change.

Ecological Effects on the Dynamics of West Nile Virus and Avian Plasmodium: The Importance of Mosquito Communities and Landscape

Humans and wildlife are at risk from certain vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue, and West Nile and yellow fevers. Factors linked to global change, including habitat alteration, land-use intensification, the spread of alien species, and climate change, are operating on a global scale and affect both the incidence and distribution of many vector-borne diseases. Hence, understanding the drivers that regulate the transmission of pathogens in the wild is of great importance for ecological, evolutionary, health, and economic reasons. In this literature review, we discuss the ecological factors potentially affecting the transmission of two mosquito-borne pathogens circulating naturally between birds and mosquitoes, namely, West Nile virus (WNV) and the avian malaria parasites of the genus Plasmodium. Traditionally, the study of pathogen transmission has focused only on vectors or hosts and the interactions between them, while the role of landscape has largely been ignored. However, from an ecological point of view, it is essential not only to study the interaction between each of these organisms but also to understand the environmental scenarios in which these processes take place. We describe here some of the similarities and differences in the transmission of these two pathogens and how research into both systems may facilitate a greater understanding of the dynamics of vector-borne pathogens in the wild.

Spring temperature shapes West Nile virus transmission in Europe

West Nile Virus (WNV) is now endemic in many European countries, causing hundreds of human cases every year, with a high spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Previous studies have suggested that spring temperature might play a key role at shaping WNV transmission. Specifically, warmer temperatures in April-May might amplify WNV circulation, thus increasing the risk for human transmission later in the year. To test this hypothesis, we collated publicly available data on the number of human infections recorded in Europe between 2011 and 2019. We then applied generalized linear models to quantify the relationship between human cases and spring temperature, considering both average conditions (over years 2003-2010) and deviations from the average for subsequent years (2011-2019). We found a significant positive association both spatial (average conditions) and temporal (deviations). The former indicates that WNV circulation is higher in usually warmer regions while the latter implies a predictive value of spring conditions over the coming season. We also found a positive association with WNV detection during the previous year, which can be interpreted as an indication of the reliability of the surveillance system but also of WNV overwintering capacity. Weather anomalies at the beginning of the mosquito breeding season might act as an early warning signal for public health authorities, enabling them to strengthen in advance ongoing surveillance and prevention strategies.

The abundance of Culex mosquito vectors for West Nile Virus and other flaviviruses: A time-series analysis of rainfall and temperature dependence in Singapore

Culex mosquitoes are important vectors of West Nile Virus (WNV), St. Louis Encephalitis Virus (SLEV) and Japanese Encephalitis Virus (JEV). Climate change is expected to alter their ability to spread diseases in human populations. Studies examining the influence of climate variability on Culex mosquitoes in South East Asia are scarce. We examined the influence of climate variability on reported Culex mosquito larval habitats from 2009 to 2018 in Singapore. We analysed the non-linear immediate and lagged weather dependence of Culex habitats over 5 weeks in negative binomial regression models using nationally representative data. We adjusted for the effects of long-term trend, seasonality, public holidays and autocorrelation. There were 41,170 reported Culex larval habitats over the study period. Non-residential premises were associated with more reports of habitats compared to residential premises [Rate Ratio (RR): 113.9, 95% CI: 110.9, 116.9]. Larvae in more than 90% of these habitats were entomologically identified as Culex quinquefasciatus. In residences, every 10 mm increase in rainfall above a 90 mm threshold was associated with a 10.1% [Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR): 0.899, 95% CI: 0.836, 0.968] cumulative decline in larval habitats. Public holidays were not significantly included in the model analysing larval habitats in residences. In non-residences, a 1 °C increase in the ambient air temperature with respect to the mean was associated with a 36.0% (IRR: 1.360, 95% CI: 1.057, 1.749) cumulative increase in Culex larval habitats. Public holidays were associated with a decline in Culex larval habitats in the same week. Our study provides evidence of how ambient air temperature and rainfall variability influences the abundance of Culex mosquito larval habitats. Our findings support the utility of using weather data in predictive models to inform the timing of vector control measures aimed at reducing the risk of WNV and other Culex-borne flavivirus transmission in urban areas.

Implications of increasing temperature stress for predatory biocontrol of vector mosquitoes

BACKGROUND

Predators play a critical role in regulating larval mosquito prey populations in aquatic habitats. Understanding predator-prey responses to climate change-induced environmental perturbations may foster optimal efficacy in vector reduction. However, organisms may differentially respond to heterogeneous thermal environments, potentially destabilizing predator-prey trophic systems.

METHODS

Here, we explored the critical thermal limits of activity (CTLs; critical thermal-maxima [CTmax] and minima [CTmin]) of key predator-prey species. We concurrently examined CTL asynchrony of two notonectid predators (Anisops sardea and Enithares chinai) and one copepod predator (Lovenula falcifera) as well as larvae of three vector mosquito species, Aedes aegypti, Anopheles quadriannulatus and Culex pipiens, across instar stages (early, 1st; intermediate, 2nd/3rd; late, 4th).

RESULTS

Overall, predators and prey differed significantly in CTmax and CTmin. Predators generally had lower CTLs than mosquito prey, dependent on prey instar stage and species, with first instars having the lowest CTmax (lowest warm tolerance), but also the lowest CTmin (highest cold tolerance). For predators, L. falcifera exhibited the narrowest CTLs overall, with E. chinai having the widest and A. sardea intermediate CTLs, respectively. Among prey species, the global invader Ae. aegypti consistently exhibited the highest CTmax, whilst differences among CTmin were inconsistent among prey species according to instar stage.

CONCLUSION

These results point to significant predator-prey mismatches under environmental change, potentially adversely affecting natural mosquito biocontrol given projected shifts in temperature fluctuations in the study region. The overall narrower thermal breadth of native predators relative to larval mosquito prey may reduce natural biotic resistance to pests and harmful mosquito species, with implications for population success and potentially vector capacity under global change.

Divergence and constraint in the thermal sensitivity of aquatic insect swimming performance

Environmental temperature variation may play a significant role in the adaptive evolutionary divergence of ectotherm thermal performance curves (TPCs). However, divergence in TPCs may also be constrained due to various causes. Here, we measured TPCs for swimming velocity of temperate and tropical mayflies (Family: Baetidae) and their stonefly predators (Family: Perlidae) from different elevations. We predicted that differences in seasonal climatic regimes would drive divergence in TPCs between temperate and tropical species. Stable tropical temperatures should favor the evolution of "specialists" that perform well across a narrow range of temperatures. Seasonally, variable temperatures in temperate zones, however, should favor "generalists" that perform well across a broad range of temperatures. In phylogenetically paired comparisons of mayflies and stoneflies, swimming speed was generally unaffected by experimental temperature and did not differ among populations between latitudes, suggesting a maintenance of performance breadth across elevation and latitude. An exception was found between temperate and tropical mayflies at low elevation where climatic differences between latitudes are large. In addition, TPCs did not differ between mayflies and their stonefly predators, except at tropical low elevation. Our results indicate that divergence in TPCs may be constrained in aquatic insects except under the most different thermal regimes, perhaps because of trade-offs that reduce thermal sensitivity and increase performance breadth.

Transmission of West Nile and five other temperate mosquito-borne viruses peaks at temperatures between 23°C and 26°C

The temperature-dependence of many important mosquito-borne diseases has never been quantified. These relationships are critical for understanding current distributions and predicting future shifts from climate change. We used trait-based models to characterize temperature-dependent transmission of 10 vector-pathogen pairs of mosquitoes (Culex pipiens, Cx. quinquefascsiatus, Cx. tarsalis, and others) and viruses (West Nile, Eastern and Western Equine Encephalitis, St. Louis Encephalitis, Sindbis, and Rift Valley Fever viruses), most with substantial transmission in temperate regions. Transmission is optimized at intermediate temperatures (23-26°C) and often has wider thermal breadths (due to cooler lower thermal limits) compared to pathogens with predominately tropical distributions (in previous studies). The incidence of human West Nile virus cases across US counties responded unimodally to average summer temperature and peaked at 24°C, matching model-predicted optima (24-25°C). Climate warming will likely shift transmission of these diseases, increasing it in cooler locations while decreasing it in warmer locations.

The effect of urbanization and climate change on the mosquito population in the Pearl River Delta region of China

The rising incidence of mosquito-borne diseases is a global concern. Changes in regional climate, due to urbanization and global greenhouse gas concentrations, may affect the ecology of mosquitoes and mosquito-transmitted pathogens. The effects of changes in climate on mosquito population dynamics are complex but critical and urgent for implementing more effective public health policies. This study quantified the impact of urbanization and global climate change on the population of the mosquito species, Culex quinquefasciatus, in the Pearl River Delta region in southern China-an area that has undergone substantial urbanization and is expected to experience changes in climate. This study employed a mechanistic model to simulate mosquito population dynamics under various greenhouse gas emission and land-cover change scenarios based on climate data provided by a state-of-the-art regional climate model. Our results show a 12.6% decrease in the annual mosquito population in newly urbanized areas and a 5.9% increase in the annual mosquito population in existing urban areas. Furthermore, changing climate conditions are projected to cause a 15-17% reduction in the total annual mosquito population; however, the change will not be uniform throughout the year. Peak months exhibit a reduction in population, whereas non-peak months show a significant increase. These findings suggest mosquito control strategies may need to be adjusted to respond to the impacts of urbanization and climate change on mosquito population dynamics to maximize effectiveness. Region specific, quantitative analyses of environmental impacts on mosquito-borne disease ecology, like this study, are needed to provide policy makers with a scientific reference to guide the formation of effective transmission intervention strategies.

The Role of Temperature in Transmission of Zoonotic Arboviruses

We reviewed the literature on the role of temperature in transmission of zoonotic arboviruses. Vector competence is affected by both direct and indirect effects of temperature, and generally increases with increasing temperature, but results may vary by vector species, population, and viral strain. Temperature additionally has a significant influence on life history traits of vectors at both immature and adult life stages, and for important behaviors such as blood-feeding and mating. Similar to vector competence, temperature effects on life history traits can vary by species and population. Vector, host, and viral distributions are all affected by temperature, and are generally expected to change with increased temperatures predicted under climate change. Arboviruses are generally expected to shift poleward and to higher elevations under climate change, yet significant variability on fine geographic scales is likely. Temperature effects are generally unimodal, with increases in abundance up to an optimum, and then decreases at high temperatures. Improved vector distribution information could facilitate future distribution modeling. A wide variety of approaches have been used to model viral distributions, although most research has focused on the West Nile virus. Direct temperature effects are frequently observed, as are indirect effects, such as through droughts, where temperature interacts with rainfall. Thermal biology approaches hold much promise for syntheses across viruses, vectors, and hosts, yet future studies must consider the specificity of interactions and the dynamic nature of evolving biological systems.

West Nile Virus Mosquito Vectors in North America

In North America, the geographic distribution, ecology, and vectorial capacity of a diverse assemblage of mosquito species belonging to the genus Culex determine patterns of West Nile virus transmission and disease risk. East of the Mississippi River, mostly ornithophagic Culex pipiens L. complex mosquitoes drive intense enzootic transmission with relatively small numbers of human cases. Westward, the presence of highly competent Culex tarsalis (Coquillett) under arid climate and hot summers defines the regions with the highest human risk. West Nile virus human risk distribution is not uniform geographically or temporally within all regions. Notable geographic 'hotspots' persist with occasional severe outbreaks. Despite two decades of comprehensive research, several questions remain unresolved, such as the role of non-Culex bridge vectors, which are not involved in the enzootic cycle, but may be involved in virus transmission to humans. The absence of bridge vectors also may help to explain the frequent lack of West Nile virus 'spillover' into human populations despite very intense enzootic amplification in the eastern United States. This article examines vectorial capacity and the eco-epidemiology of West Nile virus mosquito vectors in four geographic regions of North America and presents some of the unresolved questions.

Introduction, Spread, and Establishment of West Nile Virus in the Americas

The introduction of West Nile virus (WNV) to North America in 1999 and its subsequent rapid spread across the Americas demonstrated the potential impact of arboviral introductions to new regions, and this was reinforced by the subsequent introductions of chikungunya and Zika viruses. Extensive studies of host-pathogen-vector-environment interactions over the past two decades have illuminated many aspects of the ecology and evolution of WNV and other arboviruses, including the potential for pathogen adaptation to hosts and vectors, the influence of climate, land use and host immunity on transmission ecology, and the difficulty in preventing the establishment of a zoonotic pathogen with abundant wildlife reservoirs. Here, we focus on outstanding questions concerning the introduction, spread, and establishment of WNV in the Americas, and what it can teach us about the future of arboviral introductions. Key gaps in our knowledge include the following: viral adaptation and coevolution of hosts, vectors and the virus; the mechanisms and species involved in the large-scale spatial spread of WNV; how weather modulates WNV transmission; the drivers of large-scale variation in enzootic transmission; the ecology of WNV transmission in Latin America; and the relative roles of each component of host-virus-vector interactions in spatial and temporal variation in WNV transmission. Integrative studies that examine multiple factors and mechanisms simultaneously are needed to advance our knowledge of mechanisms driving transmission.

Models and Surveillance Systems to Detect and Predict West Nile Virus Outbreaks

Over the past 20 yr, many models have been developed to predict risk for West Nile virus (WNV; Flaviviridae: Flavivirus) disease in the human population. These models have aided our understanding of the meteorological and land-use variables that drive spatial and temporal patterns of human disease risk. During the same period, electronic data systems have been adopted by surveillance programs across much of the United States, including a growing interest in integrated data services that preserve the autonomy and attribution of credit to originating agencies but facilitate data sharing, analysis, and visualization at local, state, and national scales. At present, nearly all predictive models have been limited to the scientific literature, with few having been implemented for use by public-health and vector-control decision makers. The current article considers the development of models for spatial patterns, early warning, and early detection of WNV over the last 20 yr and considers some possible paths toward increasing the utility of these models for guiding interventions.

Using natural laboratories to study evolution to global warming: contrasting altitudinal, latitudinal, and urbanization gradients

Demonstrating the likelihood of evolution in response to global warming is important, yet challenging. We discuss how three spatial thermal gradients (latitudinal, altitudinal, and urbanization) can be used as natural laboratories to inform about the gradual thermal evolution of populations by applying a space-for-time substitution (SFTS) approach. We compare thermal variables and confounding non-thermal abiotic variables, methodological approaches and evolutionary aspects associated with each type of gradient. On the basis of an overview of recent insect studies, we show that a key assumption of SFTS, local thermal adaptation along these gradients, is often but not always met, requiring explicit validation. To increase realism when applying SFTS, we highlight the importance of integrating daily temperature fluctuations, multiple stressors and multiple interacting species. Finally, comparative studies, especially across gradient types, are important to provide more robust inferences of evolution under gradual global warming. Integrating these research directions will further strengthen the still underused, yet powerful SFTS approach to infer gradual evolution under global warming.

Thermal biology of mosquito-borne disease

Mosquito-borne diseases cause a major burden of disease worldwide. The vital rates of these ectothermic vectors and parasites respond strongly and nonlinearly to temperature and therefore to climate change. Here, we review how trait-based approaches can synthesise and mechanistically predict the temperature dependence of transmission across vectors, pathogens, and environments. We present 11 pathogens transmitted by 15 different mosquito species - including globally important diseases like malaria, dengue, and Zika - synthesised from previously published studies. Transmission varied strongly and unimodally with temperature, peaking at 23-29ºC and declining to zero below 9-23ºC and above 32-38ºC. Different traits restricted transmission at low versus high temperatures, and temperature effects on transmission varied by both mosquito and parasite species. Temperate pathogens exhibit broader thermal ranges and cooler thermal minima and optima than tropical pathogens. Among tropical pathogens, malaria and Ross River virus had lower thermal optima (25-26ºC) while dengue and Zika viruses had the highest (29ºC) thermal optima. We expect warming to increase transmission below thermal optima but decrease transmission above optima. Key directions for future work include linking mechanistic models to field transmission, combining temperature effects with control measures, incorporating trait variation and temperature variation, and investigating climate adaptation and migration.

Do we know how mosquito disease vectors will respond to climate change?

Mosquito-borne diseases are on the rise globally. Besides invasion processes and the increasing connectivity between distant regions through the trade of goods and human mobility, climate change is seen as an important driver for changing the likelihood of occurrence of vectors and diseases, respectively. Ectothermic insects respond directly to thermal conditions and thus we can expect them to follow climatic trends. However, a variety of species and different stages in their life cycles need to be considered. Here, we review the current literature in this field and disentangle the state of knowledge and the challenges and open questions for future research. The integration of diurnal temperature ranges in prospective experimental studies will strongly improve the knowledge of mosquitoes’ ecology and mosquito-borne disease transmission for temperate regions in particular. In addition, invasive mosquitoes are known to rapidly adapt to the climatic conditions, but the underlying processes are not yet fully understood.

Land Use and Larval Habitat Increase Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) and Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae) Abundance in Lowland Hawaii

Vector abundance plays a key role in transmission of mosquito-borne disease. In Hawaii, Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae), the Asian tiger mosquito, has been implicated in locally-transmitted dengue outbreaks, while Culex quinquefasciatus Say (Diptera: Culicidae), the southern house mosquito, is the primary vector of avian malaria, a wildlife disease that has contributed to declines and extinctions of native Hawaiian birds. Despite the importance of these introduced species to human and wildlife health, little is known about the local-scale drivers that shape mosquito abundance across lowland Hawaii, where forest, agricultural, and residential land uses are prevalent. We examined landscape, larval habitat, and climate drivers of Ae. albopictus and Cx. quinquefasciatus abundance in eight lowland wet forest fragments on the Big Island of Hawaii. We found that the abundance of both species increased with the proportion of surrounding developed land and the availability of larval habitat, which were themselves correlated. Our findings suggest that conversion of natural habitats to residential and agricultural land increases mosquito larval habitats, increasing the abundance of Ae. albopictus and Cx. quinquefasciatus and increasing disease risk to humans and wildlife in Hawaii. Our results further indicate that while source reduction of artificial larval habitats-particularly moderately-sized human-made habitats including abandoned cars and tires-could reduce mosquito abundance, eliminating larval habitat will be challenging because both species utilize both natural and human-made larval habitats in lowland Hawaii.

Evolution of geographic variation in thermal performance curves in the face of climate change and implications for biotic interactions

We review the recent literature on geographic variation in insect thermal performance curves (TPCs). Despite strong thermal differences, there is often no change in TPCs across geographic gradients. When shifts occur, these are mostly vertical (indicating an overall shift in performance across temperatures, that is, countergradient or cogradient variation) and less horizontal (reflecting thermal adaptation). Based on this, using a space-for-time substitution approach, we generated likely evolutionary scenarios of TPC evolution to simulate the outcome of biotic interactions under future warming. We illustrate how taking evolution of the TPCs into account may strongly impact the predicted outcome of biotic interactions under climate warming. Importantly, both the type and the magnitude of the TPC shift was identified to be crucial to determine who will be winners and losers of biotic interactions.

Larval superiority of Culex pipiens to Aedes albopictus in a replacement series experiment: prospects for coexistence in Germany

Background

The Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus is an extremely invasive, globally distributed and medically important vector of various human and veterinary pathogens. In Germany, where this species was recently introduced, its establishment may become modulated by interspecific competition from autochthonous mosquito species, especially Culex pipiens (s.l.). While competitive superiority of Ae. albopictus to Cx. pipiens (s.l.) has been described elsewhere, it has not been assessed in the epidemiological conditions of Germany. The present study aimed to determine if such superiority exists under the physicochemical and microclimatic conditions typical for container habitats in Germany.

Methods

In a replacement series experiment, the larval and pupal responses of Ae. albopictus and Cx. pipiens (s.l.) (mortality, development time, growth) to interspecific interaction (five larval ratios) at (sub-)optimal temperatures (15, 20 and 25 °C) and differing food supply (3 and 6 mg animal-based food larva^-1) were investigated using a randomized split-plot design. In addition to physicochemical measurements of the test media, natural physicochemical conditions were determined for comparative analyses in mosquito breeding sites across the Rhine-Main metropolitan region of Germany.

Results

Under the physicochemical and microclimatic conditions similar to the breeding sites of the Rhine-Main region, competitive superiority of Cx. pipiens (s.l.) to Ae. albopictus in terms of larval survival was more frequently observed than balanced coexistence. Food regime and multifactorial interactions, but not temperature alone, were controlling factors for interspecific competition. Larval food regime and the larval ratio of Ae. albopictus influenced the physicochemistry and algal growth at 15 °C, with increased Ae. albopictus mortality linked to a decreasing number of Scenedesmus, Oocystis and Anabaena algae.

Conclusions

Under the present environmental conditions, the spread of Ae. albopictus from isolated foci in Germany may generally be slowed by biotic interactions with the ubiquitous Cx. pipiens (s.l.) (and potentially other container-breeding mosquito species) and by limnic microalgae in microhabitats with high resource levels. Detailed knowledge of the context dependency in temperate mosquito ecology, and interrelations of physicochemistry and phycology may help to achieve a better understanding of the upcoming Ae. albopictus colonization processes in central and northern Europe.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-018-2665-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

West Nile virus and its vectors

West Nile virus (WNV Flaviviridae; Flavivrus) is the most geographically widespread arbovirus in the world and the leading cause of arboviral encephalitis globally. Worldwide, WNV is maintained in an enzootic cycle between primarily Culex spp. mosquitoes and birds, with human infection and disease resulting from enzootic spillover. Dynamic and complex intrinsic and extrinsic factors contribute to the temporal and spatial variability in WNV transmission. The most current information on the relative contribution of each of these factors is reviewed and a case to incorporate detailed and localized environmental and genetic data into predictive models is presented.

Modelling West Nile virus transmission risk in Europe: effect of temperature and mosquito biotypes on the basic reproduction number

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus which has caused repeated outbreaks in humans in southern and central Europe, but thus far not in northern Europe. The main mosquito vector for WNV, Culex pipiens, consists of two behaviourally distinct biotypes, pipiens and molestus, which can form hybrids. Differences between biotypes, such as vector competence and host preference, could be important in determining the risk of WNV outbreaks. Risks for WNV establishment can be modelled with basic reproduction number (R₀) models. However, existing R₀ models have not differentiated between biotypes. The aim of this study was, therefore, to explore the role of temperature-dependent and biotype-specific effects on the risk of WNV establishment in Europe. We developed an R₀ model with temperature-dependent and biotype-specific parameters, and calculated R₀ values using the next-generation matrix for several scenarios relevant for Europe. In addition, elasticity analysis was done to investigate the contribution of each biotype to R₀. Global warming and increased mosquito-to-host ratios can possibly result in more intense WNV circulation in birds and spill-over to humans in northern Europe. Different contributions of the Cx. pipiens biotypes to R₀ shows the importance of including biotype-specific parameters in models for reliable WNV risk assessments.

The effect of interspecific competition on the temporal dynamics of Aedes albopictus and Culex pipiens

BACKGROUND

Aedes albopictus and Culex pipiens larvae reared in the same breeding site compete for resources, with an asymmetrical outcome that disadvantages only the latter species. The impact of these interactions on the overall ecology of these two species has not yet been assessed in the natural environment. In the present study, the temporal patterns of adult female mosquitoes from both species were analysed in north-eastern Italy, and substantial temporal shifts between abundance curves of Cx. pipiens and Ae. albopictus were observed in several sites. To understand which factors can drive the observed temporal shifts, we developed a mechanistic model that takes explicitly into account the effect of temperature on the development and survival of all mosquito stages. We also included into the model the effect of asymmetric interspecific competition, by adding a mortality term for Cx. pipiens larvae proportional to the larval abundance of Ae. albopictus within the same breeding site. Model calibration was performed through a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach using weekly capture data collected in our study sites during 2014 and 2015.

RESULTS

In almost half of observation sites, temporal shifts were due to competition, with an early decline of Cx. pipiens caused by the concurrent rise in abundance of its competitor, and this effect was enhanced by higher abundance of both species. We estimate that competition may reduce Cx. pipiens abundance in some sites by up to about 70%. However, in some cases temporal shifts can also be explained in the absence of competition between species resulting from a "temporal niche" effect, when the optimal fitness to environmental conditions for the two species are reached at different times of the year.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings demonstrate the importance of considering ecological interactions and, in particular, competition between mosquito species in temperate climates, with important implications for risk assessment of mosquito transmitted pathogens, as well as the implementation of effective control measures.

Complexity of virus-vector interactions

The inter-relationships among viruses, vectors and vertebrate hosts are complex and dynamic and shaped by biotic (e.g., viral strain, vector genetics, host susceptibility) and abiotic (e.g., temperature, rainfall, human land use) factors. It is anticipated that changes in climate, as predicted by the most recent Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, will result in landscape changes and consequent changes in spatiotemporal patterns of arbovirus transmission. To anticipate evolving patterns of virus activity in a dynamically changing environment, it is important to understand how interconnectedness of mosquito and virus biology together with climate influence arbovirus transmission intensity. Vector competence, survivorship, and feeding behavior, among other aspects of vectorial capacity are intrinsically important to estimate risk and design control approaches.

Climatic, ecological, and socioeconomic factors associated with West Nile virus incidence in Atlanta, Georgia, U.S.A

The integrated effects of the many risk factors associated with West Nile virus (WNV) incidence are complex and not well understood. We studied an array of risk factors in and around Atlanta, GA, that have been shown to be linked with WNV in other locations. This array was comprehensive and included climate and meteorological metrics, vegetation characteristics, land use / land cover analyses, and socioeconomic factors. Data on mosquito abundance and WNV mosquito infection rates were obtained for 58 sites and covered 2009-2011, a period following the combined storm water - sewer overflow remediation in that city. Risk factors were compared to mosquito abundance and the WNV vector index (VI) using regression analyses individually and in combination. Lagged climate variables, including soil moisture and temperature, were significantly correlated (positively) with vector index as were forest patch size and percent pine composition of patches (both negatively). Socioeconomic factors that were most highly correlated (positively) with the VI included the proportion of low income households and homes built before 1960 and housing density. The model selected through stepwise regression that related risk factors to the VI included (in the order of decreasing influence) proportion of houses built before 1960, percent of pine in patches, and proportion of low income households.

Malaria transmission potential could be reduced with current and future climate change

Several studies suggest the potential for climate change to increase malaria incidence in cooler, marginal transmission environments. However, the effect of increasing temperature in warmer regions where conditions currently support endemic transmission has received less attention. We investigate how increases in temperature from optimal conditions (27 °C to 30 °C and 33 °C) interact with realistic diurnal temperature ranges (DTR: ± 0 °C, 3 °C, and 4.5 °C) to affect the ability of key vector species from Africa and Asia (Anopheles gambiae and An. stephensi) to transmit the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum. The effects of increasing temperature and DTR on parasite prevalence, parasite intensity, and mosquito mortality decreased overall vectorial capacity for both mosquito species. Increases of 3 °C from 27 °C reduced vectorial capacity by 51–89% depending on species and DTR, with increases in DTR alone potentially halving transmission. At 33 °C, transmission potential was further reduced for An. stephensi and blocked completely in An. gambiae. These results suggest that small shifts in temperature could play a substantial role in malaria transmission dynamics, yet few empirical or modeling studies consider such effects. They further suggest that rather than increase risk, current and future warming could reduce transmission potential in existing high transmission settings.