Using imperfect data in predictive mapping of vectors: a regional example of Ixodes ricinus distribution

GIS-ODE: linking dynamic population models with GIS to predict pathogen vector abundance across a country under climate change scenarios

Mechanistic mathematical models such as ordinary differential equations (ODEs) have a long history for their use in describing population dynamics and determining estimates of key parameters that summarize the potential growth or decline of a population over time. More recently, geographic information systems (GIS) have become important tools to provide a visual representation of statistically determined parameters and environmental features over space. Here, we combine these tools to form a 'GIS-ODE' approach to generate spatiotemporal maps predicting how projected changes in thermal climate may affect population densities and, uniquely, population dynamics of Ixodes ricinus, an important tick vector of several human pathogens. Assuming habitat and host densities are not greatly affected by climate warming, the GIS-ODE model predicted that, even under the lowest projected temperature increase, I. ricinus nymph densities could increase by 26-99% in Scotland, depending on the habitat and climate of the location. Our GIS-ODE model provides the vector-borne disease research community with a framework option to produce predictive, spatially explicit risk maps based on a mechanistic understanding of vector and vector-borne disease transmission dynamics.

Predicting the current and future risk of ticks on livestock farms in Britain using random forest models

The most abundant tick species in northern Europe, Ixodes ricinus, transmits a range of pathogens that cause disease in livestock. As I. ricinus distribution is influenced by climate, tick-borne disease risk is expected to change in the future. The aims of this work were to build a spatial model to predict current and future risk of ticks on livestock farms across Britain. Variables relating both to tick hazard and livestock exposure were included, to capture a niche which may be missed by broader scale models. A random forest machine learning model was used due to its ability to cope with correlated variables and interactions. Data on tick presence and absence on sheep and cattle farms was obtained from a retrospective questionnaire survey of 926 farmers. The ROC of the final model was 0.80. The model outputs matched observed patterns of tick distribution, with areas of highest tick risk in southwest and northwest England, Wales, and west Scotland. Overall, the probability of tick presence on livestock farms was predicted to increase by 5-7 % across Britain under future climate scenarios. The predicted increase is greater at higher altitudes and latitudes, further increasing the risk of tick-borne disease on farms in these areas.

Ticks on the move-climate change-induced range shifts of three tick species in Europe: current and future habitat suitability for Ixodes ricinus in comparison with Dermacentor reticulatus and Dermacentor marginatus

Tick-borne diseases are a major health problem worldwide and could become even more important in Europe in the future. Due to changing climatic conditions, ticks are assumed to be able to expand their ranges in Europe towards higher latitudes and altitudes, which could result in an increased occurrence of tick-borne diseases.

There is a great interest to identify potential (new) areas of distribution of vector species in order to assess the future infection risk with vector-borne diseases, improve surveillance, to develop more targeted monitoring program, and, if required, control measures.

Based on an ecological niche modelling approach we project the climatic suitability for the three tick species Ixodes ricinus, Dermacentor reticulatus and Dermacentor marginatus under current and future climatic conditions in Europe. These common tick species also feed on humans and livestock and are vector competent for a number of pathogens.

For niche modelling, we used a comprehensive occurrence data set based on several databases and publications and six bioclimatic variables in a maximum entropy approach. For projections, we used the most recent IPCC data on current and future climatic conditions including four different scenarios of socio-economic developments.

Our models clearly support the assumption that the three tick species will benefit from climate change with projected range expansions towards north-eastern Europe and wide areas in central Europe with projected potential co-occurrence.

A higher tick biodiversity and locally higher abundances might increase the risk of tick-borne diseases, although other factors such as pathogen prevalence and host abundances are also important.

Global Distribution of Babesia Species in Questing Ticks: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Based on Published Literature

Babesiosis caused by the Babesia species is a parasitic tick-borne disease. It threatens many mammalian species and is transmitted through infected ixodid ticks. To date, the global occurrence and distribution are poorly understood in questing ticks. Therefore, we performed a meta-analysis to estimate the distribution of the pathogen. A deep search for four electronic databases of the published literature investigating the prevalence of Babesia spp. in questing ticks was undertaken and obtained data analyzed. Our results indicate that in 104 eligible studies dating from 1985 to 2020, altogether 137,364 ticks were screened with 3069 positives with an estimated global pooled prevalence estimates (PPE) of 2.10%. In total, 19 different Babesia species of both human and veterinary importance were detected in 23 tick species, with Babesia microti and Ixodesricinus being the most widely reported Babesia and tick species, respectively. Regardless of species, adult ticks with 2.60% had the highest infection rates, while larvae had the least with 0.60%. Similarly, female ticks with 4.90% were infected compared to males with 3.80%. Nested-polymerase chain reaction (PCR) 2.80% had the highest prevalence among the molecular techniques employed. In conclusion, results obtained indicate that Babesia species are present in diverse questing tick species at a low prevalence, of which some are competent vectors.