Development of multivariable prediction models for institutionalization and mortality in the full spectrum of Alzheimer’s disease

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on mortality rate in memory clinic patients

INTRODUCTION

We investigated whether mortality in memory clinic patients changed due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

METHODS

We included patients from the Amsterdam Dementia Cohort: (1) n = 923 pandemic patients (baseline visit: 2017-2018, follow-up: until 2021), and (2) n = 830 historical control patients (baseline visit: 2015-2016, follow-up: until 2019). Groups were well-balanced. We compared mortality during pandemic with historical control patients using Cox regression. Differences in cause of death between groups were explored using Fisher's exact test.

RESULTS

Pandemic patients had a higher risk of mortality than historical control patients (hazard ratio [HR] [95% confidence interval {CI}] = 1.34 [1.05-1.70]). Stratified for syndrome diagnosis, the effect remained significant in dementia patients (HR [95% CI] = 1.35 [1.03-1.78]). Excluding patients who died of COVID-19-infection, the higher mortality risk in pandemic patients attenuated (HR [95% CI] = 1.24 [0.97-1.58]). Only the difference in cause of death between pandemic patients and historical control patients for death to COVID-19-infection (p = 0.001) was observed.

CONCLUSION

Memory clinic patients had increased mortality risk during COVID-19 compared to historical control patients, attributable to dementia patients.

Highlights

We investigated if mortality rates in memory clinic patients changed due to COVID-19 pandemic.We included patients along the cognitive continuum, including SCD, MCI, and dementia.We used a well-balanced historical control group.Memory clinic patients had higher risk for mortality during COVID-19 lockdown.Our results indicate that excess mortality is mainly caused by death to COVID-19 infection.

Pemphigus and pemphigoid are associated with Alzheimer's disease in older adults: evidence from the US Nationwide inpatient sample 2016-2018

BACKGROUND

Pemphigus and pemphigoid are rare autoimmune skin disorders caused by autoantibodies against structural proteins and characterized by blistering of the skin and/or mucous membranes. Associations have been noted between skin diseases and Alzheimer's dementia (AD). Dementia is a neurological disorder of progressive cognitive impairment with increasing incidence among older adults. This study aimed to assess the potential associations between pemphigus, pemphigoid and AD in a large, nationally representative US cohort.

METHODS

All data of hospitalized patients aged 60 years or older were extracted from the US Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) database 2016-2018. Patients with a history of head trauma, diagnosis of vascular dementia, history of cerebrovascular disease, or malformation of cerebral vessels were excluded. The study population was divided into those with and without pemphigus (cohort 1) and with and without pemphigoid (cohort 2).

RESULTS

Pemphigus was independently associated with a 69% increased risk of AD. Adults ≥80 years old with pemphigus were 72% more likely to develop AD than adults without pemphigus. Women with pemphigus were 78% more likely to develop AD than women without pemphigus. On the other hand, pemphigoid was independently associated with a 39% increased risk for AD and subjects ≥80 years with pemphigoid were 40% more likely to have AD than those without pemphigoid. Females with pemphigoid were 63% more likely to have AD than those without pemphigoid. Moreover, Hispanic older adults with pemphigus were 3-times more likely to have AD than those without pemphigoid.

CONCLUSIONS

Pemphigus and pemphigoid were both independently associated with AD in older adults, especially among females and octogenarians. Further studies addressing the etiology and mechanisms underlying these associations are highly warranted.

A Path to Improved Alzheimer's Care: Simulating Long-Term Health Outcomes of Lecanemab in Early Alzheimer's Disease from the CLARITY AD Trial

INTRODUCTION

Alzheimer's disease (AD), a progressive neurodegenerative disease, is the main cause of dementia and one of the leading causes of death for elderly people in the USA. Lecanemab is a humanized IgG1 monoclonal antibody targeting amyloid protofibrils for the treatment of early AD [i.e., mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or mild AD dementia]. In a recent 18-month phase III trial, using a double-blind, placebo-controlled design, lecanemab treatment led to reduced brain amyloid burden and significant improvements in cognitive and functional abilities in individuals with early AD.

METHODS

An evidence-based patient-level disease simulation model was updated to estimate the long-term health outcomes of lecanemab plus standard of care (SoC) compared to SoC alone in patients with early AD and evidence of brain amyloid burden, using recent phase III trial data and published literature. The disease progression is described by changes in the underlying biomarkers of AD, including measures of amyloid and tau, and their connection to the clinical presentation of the disease assessed through various patient-level scales of cognition and function.

RESULTS

Lecanemab treatment was estimated to slow the progression of AD to moderate and severe stages and reduce the time spent in these more advanced states. In individuals with early AD, lecanemab plus SoC was associated with a gain of 0.71 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), a 2.95-year delay in mean time to progression to AD dementia, a reduction of 0.11 years in institutional care, and an additional 1.07 years in community care as shown in the base-case study. Improved health outcomes were demonstrated with lecanemab treatment when initiated earlier based on age, disease severity, or tau pathology, resulting in estimated gains in QALYs ranging from 0.77 to 1.09 years, compared to 0.4 years in the mild AD dementia subset, as shown by the model.

CONCLUSION

The study findings demonstrate the potential clinical value of lecanemab for individuals with early AD by slowing down disease progression and prolonging time in earlier stages of disease, which significantly benefits not only patients and caregivers but also society overall.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier, NCT03887455.

Estimated Societal Value of Lecanemab in Patients with Early Alzheimer's Disease Using Simulation Modeling

INTRODUCTION

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder associated with memory, cognitive, and behavioral deficits, and brings significant economic burden on caregivers and healthcare systems. This study aims to estimate the long-term societal value of lecanemab plus standard of care (SoC) versus SoC alone, corresponding to a range of willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds based on the phase III CLARITY AD trial readouts from both the US payer and societal perspectives.

METHODS

An evidence-based model was developed to simulate the effects of lecanemab on disease progression in early AD using interconnected predictive equations based on longitudinal clinical and biomarker data derived from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). The model was informed with the results of the phase III CLARITY AD trial and published literature. Key model outcomes included patient life-years (LYs), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and total costs of both the direct and indirect costs of patients and caregivers over a lifetime horizon.

RESULTS

Patients treated with lecanemab plus SoC gained an additional 0.62 years of life versus SoC alone (6.23 years vs. 5.61 years). The mean time on lecanemab was 3.91 years, and the treatment was associated with an increase in patient QALYs of 0.61 and an increase in total QALYs of 0.64 when both patient and caregiver utilities were considered. The model estimated that the annual value of lecanemab for the US payer perspective was US$18,709-35,678 ($19,710-37,351 for societal perspective) at the WTP threshold of $100,000-200,000 per QALY gained, respectively. Scenario analyses of patient subgroups, time horizon, input sources, treatment stopping rules, and treatment dosing were conducted to explore the impact of alternative assumptions on the model results.

CONCLUSION

The economic study suggested that lecanemab plus SoC would improve health and humanistic (quality of life) outcomes and reduce economic burden for patients and caregivers in early AD.