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Northeim K, Marks C, Tiwari C. Evaluating spatial patterns of seasonal ozone exposure and incidence of respiratory emergency room visits in Dallas-Fort Worth. PeerJ 2021; 9:e11066. [PMID: 33954029 PMCID: PMC8051349 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.11066] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/13/2020] [Accepted: 02/15/2021] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In urban environments, environmental air pollution poses significant risks to respiratory health. Moreover, the seasonal spatial variability of the air pollutant ozone, and respiratory illness within Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) is not well understood. We examine the relationships between spatial patterns of long-term ozone exposure and respiratory illness to better understand impacts on health outcomes. We propose that this study will establish an enhanced understanding of the spatio-temporal characteristics of ozone concentrations and respiratory emergency room visits (ERV) incidence. METHODS Air pollution data (ozone) and ERV incidence data from DFW was used to evaluate the relationships between exposures and outcomes using three steps: (1) develop a geostatistical model to produce quarterly maps of ozone exposure for the DFW area; (2) use spatial analysis techniques to identify clusters of zip codes with high or low values of ozone exposure and respiratory ERV incidence; and (3) use concentration-response curves to evaluate the relationships between respiratory ERV incidence and ozone exposure. RESULTS Respiratory ERV incidence was highest in quarters 1 and 4, while ozone exposure was highest in quarters 2 and 3. Extensive statistically significant spatial clusters of ozone regions were identified. Although the maps revealed that there was no regional association between the spatial patterns of high respiratory ERV incidence and ozone exposure, the concentration-response analysis suggests that lower levels of ozone exposure may still contribute to adverse respiratory outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kari Northeim
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of North Texas, Denton, TX, USA
| | - Constant Marks
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of North Texas, Denton, TX, USA
| | - Chetan Tiwari
- Department of Geography and the Environment, University of North Texas, Denton, TX, USA
- Advanced Environmental Research Institute, University of North Texas, Denton, TX, USA
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Chen L, Liang S, Li X, Mao J, Gao S, Zhang H, Sun Y, Vedal S, Bai Z, Ma Z, Azzi M. A hybrid approach to estimating long-term and short-term exposure levels of ozone at the national scale in China using land use regression and Bayesian maximum entropy. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 752:141780. [PMID: 32882471 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141780] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2020] [Revised: 07/24/2020] [Accepted: 08/17/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Because ambient ozone (O3) has fine spatial scale variability in addition to a large scale regional distribution, accurate exposure predictions for population health studies need to also capture fine spatial scale differences in exposure. To address these needs, we developed a 3-year average land use regression (LUR) and combined LUR and Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) by incorporating a national area variability LUR model for China from 2015 to 2017 along with data that take into account incompleteness of O3 monitoring data into a BME framework. Spatio-temporal kriging models that either included or did not include "soft" data were used for comparison. The final LUR model included five predictor variables: road length within a 1000 m buffer, temperature, wind speed, industrial land area within a 3000 m buffer and altitude. The 1-year predicted O3 concentrations based on the ratio method moderately agreed with the measured concentration, and the regression R2 values were 0.53, 0.57 and 0.59 in the year of 2015, 2016 and 2017, respectively. The LUR/BME model performed better (R2 = 0.80, root mean squared error [RMSE] = 23.5 μg/m3) than the ordinary spatio-temporal kriging model that either included "soft" data (R2 = 0.57, RMSE = 49.2 μg/m3) or did not include the "soft" data (R2 = 0.52, RMSE = 58.5 μg/m3). We have demonstrated that a hybrid LUR/BME model can provide accurate predictions of O3 concentrations with high spatio-temporal resolution at the national scale in mainland China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Li Chen
- School of Geographic and Environmental Sciences, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China
| | - Shuang Liang
- School of Geographic and Environmental Sciences, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China
| | - Xiaoli Li
- School of Geographic and Environmental Sciences, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China
| | - Jian Mao
- School of Geographic and Environmental Sciences, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China
| | - Shuang Gao
- School of Geographic and Environmental Sciences, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China
| | - Hui Zhang
- School of Geographic and Environmental Sciences, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China
| | - Yanling Sun
- School of Geographic and Environmental Sciences, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China
| | - Sverre Vedal
- Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China; University of Washington School of Public Health, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Zhipeng Bai
- School of Geographic and Environmental Sciences, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China; Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China.
| | - Zhenxing Ma
- School of Geographic and Environmental Sciences, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China.
| | - Merched Azzi
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Energy, North Ryde, Australia
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Luo H, Astitha M, Rao ST, Hogrefe C, Mathur R. Assessing the manageable portion of ground-level ozone in the contiguous United States. JOURNAL OF THE AIR & WASTE MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION (1995) 2020; 70:1136-1147. [PMID: 32749924 PMCID: PMC7681777 DOI: 10.1080/10962247.2020.1805375] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2020] [Revised: 07/14/2020] [Accepted: 07/22/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Regional air quality models are widely being used to understand the spatial extent and magnitude of the ozone non-attainment problem and to design emission control strategies needed to comply with the relevant ozone standard through direct emission perturbations. In this study, we examine the manageable portion of ground-level ozone using two simulations of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for the year 2010 and a probabilistic analysis approach involving 29 years (1990-2018) of historical ozone observations. The modeling results reveal that the reduction in the peak ozone levels from total elimination of anthropogenic emissions within the model domain is around 13-21 ppb for the 90th-100th percentile range of the daily maximum 8-hr ozone concentrations across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Large reductions in the 4th highest 8-hr ozone are seen in the regions of West (interquartile range (IQR) of 17-33%), South (IQR 22-34%), Central (IQR 19-31%), Southeast (IQR 25-34%), and Northeast (IQR 24-37%). However, sites in the western portion of the domain generally show smaller reductions even when all anthropogenic emissions are removed, possibly due to the strong influence of global background ozone, including sources such as intercontinental ozone transport, stratospheric ozone intrusions, wildfires, and biogenic precursor emissions. Probabilistic estimates of the exceedances for several hypothetical thresholds of the 4th highest 8-hr ozone indicate that, in some areas, exceedances of such hypothetical thresholds may occur even with no anthropogenic emissions due to the ever-present atmospheric stochasticity and the current global tropospheric ozone burden. Implications: Because air pollution is intricately linked to adverse health effects, National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) have been established for criteria pollutants to safeguard human health and the environment. Areas not in compliance with the relevant standards are required to develop plans and policies to reduce their air pollution levels. Regional-scale air quality models are currently being used routinely to inform policies to identify the emissions reduction required to meet and maintain the NAAQS throughout the country. This paper examines the feasibility of the 4th highest ozone, which is used to derive the ozone design value for NAAQS, complying with various current and hypothetical 8-hr ozone thresholds over CONUS based on the information embedded in 29 years of historical ozone observations and two modeling scenarios with and without anthropogenic emissions loading.
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Affiliation(s)
- Huiying Luo
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs-Mansfield, CT
| | - Marina Astitha
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs-Mansfield, CT
| | - S. Trivikrama Rao
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs-Mansfield, CT
- Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC
| | - Christian Hogrefe
- Center for Environmental Measurement and Modeling, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC
| | - Rohit Mathur
- Center for Environmental Measurement and Modeling, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC
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Wells B, Simon H, Luben TJ, Pekar Z, Jenkins SM. Uncertainty associated with ambient ozone metrics in epidemiologic studies and risk assessments. AIR QUALITY, ATMOSPHERE, & HEALTH 2019; 12:585-595. [PMID: 32601527 PMCID: PMC7321928 DOI: 10.1007/s11869-019-00679-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2018] [Accepted: 02/12/2019] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Epidemiologic studies relating ambient ozone concentrations to adverse health outcomes have typically relied on spatial averages of concentrations from nearby monitoring stations, referred to as "composite monitors." This practice reflects the assumption that ambient ozone concentrations within an urban area are spatially homogenous. We tested the validity of this assumption by comparing ozone data measured at individual monitoring sites within selected US urban areas to their respective composite monitor time series. We first characterized the temporal correlation between the composite monitor and individual monitors in each area. Next, we analyzed the heteroskedasticity of each relationship. Finally, we compared the distribution of concentrations measured at individual monitors to the composite monitor distribution. Individual monitors showed high correlation with the composite monitor over much of the range of ambient ozone concentrations, though correlations were lower at higher concentrations. The variance between individual monitors and the composite monitor increased as a function of concentration in nearly all the urban areas. Finally, we observed statistical bias in the composite monitor concentrations at the high end of the distribution. The degree to which these results introduce uncertainty into studies that utilize composite monitors depends on the contributions of peak ozone concentrations to reported health effect associations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Benjamin Wells
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, US Environmental Protection Agency, 109 T.W. Alexander Dr., Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA
| | - Heather Simon
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, US Environmental Protection Agency, 109 T.W. Alexander Dr., Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA
| | - Thomas J. Luben
- National Center for Environmental Assessment, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA
| | - Zachary Pekar
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, US Environmental Protection Agency, 109 T.W. Alexander Dr., Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA
| | - Scott M. Jenkins
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, US Environmental Protection Agency, 109 T.W. Alexander Dr., Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA
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Loizeau M, Buteau S, Chaix B, McElroy S, Counil E, Benmarhnia T. Does the air pollution model influence the evidence of socio-economic disparities in exposure and susceptibility? ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2018; 167:650-661. [PMID: 30241004 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2018.08.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/07/2018] [Revised: 06/27/2018] [Accepted: 08/01/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Studies assessing socio-economic disparities in air pollution exposure and susceptibility are usually based on a single air pollution model. A time stratified case-crossover study was designed to assess the impact of the type of model on differential exposure and on the differential susceptibility in the relationship between ozone exposure and daily mortality by socio-economic strata (SES) in Montreal. Non-accidental deaths along with deaths from cardiovascular and respiratory causes on the island of Montreal for the period 1991-2002 were included as cases. Daily ozone concentration estimates at partictaipants' residence were obtained from the five following air pollution models: Average value (AV), Nearest station model (NS), Inverse-distance weighting interpolation (IDW), Land-use regression model with back-extrapolation (LUR-BE) and Bayesian maximum entropy model combined with a land-use regression (BME-LUR). The prevalence of a low household income (< 20,000/year) was used as socio-economic variable, divided into two categories as a proxy for deprivation. Multivariable conditional logistic regressions were used considering 3-day average concentrations. Multiplicative and additive interactions (using Relative Excess Risk due to Interaction) as well as Cochran's tests were calculated and results were compared across the different air pollution models. Heterogeneity of susceptibility and exposure according to socio-economic status (SES) were found. Ratio of exposure across SES groups means ranged from 0.75 [0.74-0.76] to 1.01 [1.00-1.02], respectively for the LUR-BE and the BME-LUR models. Ratio of mortality odds ratios ranged from 1.01 [0.96-1.05] to 1.02 [0.97-1.08], respectively for the IDW and LUR-BE models. Cochran's test of heterogeneity between the air pollution models showed important heterogeneity regarding the differential exposure by SES, but the air pollution model was not found to influence heterogeneity regarding the differential susceptibility. The study showed air pollution models can influence the assessment of disparities in exposure according to SES in Montreal but not that of disparities in susceptibility.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maxime Loizeau
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health & Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California, San Diego, CA, USA; EHESP School of Public Health, Rennes, France
| | - Stéphane Buteau
- Department of Medicine, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Basile Chaix
- Inserm, UMR-S 1136, Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health, Nemesis team, Paris, France
| | - Sara McElroy
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health & Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California, San Diego, CA, USA
| | | | - Tarik Benmarhnia
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health & Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California, San Diego, CA, USA
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Lefohn AS, Malley CS, Smith L, Wells B, Hazucha M, Simon H, Naik V, Mills G, Schultz MG, Paoletti E, De Marco A, Xu X, Zhang L, Wang T, Neufeld HS, Musselman RC, Tarasick D, Brauer M, Feng Z, Tang H, Kobayashi K, Sicard P, Solberg S, Gerosa G. Tropospheric ozone assessment report: Global ozone metrics for climate change, human health, and crop/ecosystem research. ELEMENTA (WASHINGTON, D.C.) 2018; 1:1. [PMID: 30345319 PMCID: PMC6192432 DOI: 10.1525/elementa.279] [Citation(s) in RCA: 82] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
Assessment of spatial and temporal variation in the impacts of ozone on human health, vegetation, and climate requires appropriate metrics. A key component of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) is the consistent calculation of these metrics at thousands of monitoring sites globally. Investigating temporal trends in these metrics required that the same statistical methods be applied across these ozone monitoring sites. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test (for significant trends) and the Theil-Sen estimator (for estimating the magnitude of trend) were selected to provide robust methods across all sites. This paper provides the scientific underpinnings necessary to better understand the implications of and rationale for selecting a specific TOAR metric for assessing spatial and temporal variation in ozone for a particular impact. The rationale and underlying research evidence that influence the derivation of specific metrics are given. The form of 25 metrics (4 for model-measurement comparison, 5 for characterization of ozone in the free troposphere, 11 for human health impacts, and 5 for vegetation impacts) are described. Finally, this study categorizes health and vegetation exposure metrics based on the extent to which they are determined only by the highest hourly ozone levels, or by a wider range of values. The magnitude of the metrics is influenced by both the distribution of hourly average ozone concentrations at a site location, and the extent to which a particular metric is determined by relatively low, moderate, and high hourly ozone levels. Hence, for the same ozone time series, changes in the distribution of ozone concentrations can result in different changes in the magnitude and direction of trends for different metrics. Thus, dissimilar conclusions about the effect of changes in the drivers of ozone variability (e.g., precursor emissions) on health and vegetation exposure can result from the selection of different metrics.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Christopher S. Malley
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Environment
Department, University of York, York, UK
- NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Penicuik,
UK
- School of Chemistry, University of Edinburgh,
Edinburgh, UK
| | - Luther Smith
- Alion Science and Technology, Inc., Research
Triangle Park, NC, US
| | - Benjamin Wells
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S.
EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC, US
| | - Milan Hazucha
- Center for Environmental Medicine, Asthma, and Lung
Biology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, US
| | - Heather Simon
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S.
EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC, US
| | - Vaishali Naik
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory,
Princeton, NJ, US
| | - Gina Mills
- NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology,
Environment Centre Wales, Bangor, UK
| | | | - Elena Paoletti
- Institute for Sustainable Plant Protection,
National Research Council, Florence, IT
| | - Alessandra De Marco
- Italian National Agency for New
Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development, Rome, IT
| | - Xiaobin Xu
- Key Laboratory for Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of
Atmospheric Composition, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing,
CN
| | - Li Zhang
- Department of Civil and
Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, CN
| | - Tao Wang
- Department of Civil and
Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, CN
| | | | | | - David Tarasick
- Air Quality Research Division,
Environment and Climate Change Canada, Downsview, ON, CA
| | - Michael Brauer
- School of Population and Public
Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, CA
| | - Zhaozhong Feng
- Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese
Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN
| | - Haoye Tang
- Institute of Soil Sciences,
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, CN
| | - Kazuhiko Kobayashi
- Graduate School of
Agricultural and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, JP
| | - Pierre Sicard
- ACRI-HE, 260 route du Pin
Montard BP234, Sophia Antipolis, FR
| | - Sverre Solberg
- Norwegian Institute for Air
Research (NILU), Kjeller, NO
| | - Giacomo Gerosa
- Dipartimento di Matematica
e Fisica, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Brescia, IT
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Collet S, Kidokoro T, Karamchandani P, Shah T, Jung J. Future-year ozone prediction for the United States using updated models and inputs. JOURNAL OF THE AIR & WASTE MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION (1995) 2017; 67:938-948. [PMID: 28379116 DOI: 10.1080/10962247.2017.1310149] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED The relationship between emission reductions and changes in ozone can be studied using photochemical grid models. These models are updated with new information as it becomes available. The primary objective of this study was to update the previous Collet et al. studies by using the most up-to-date (at the time the study was done) modeling emission tools, inventories, and meteorology available to conduct ozone source attribution and sensitivity studies. Results show future-year, 2030, design values for 8-hr ozone concentrations were lower than base-year values, 2011. The ozone source attribution results for selected cities showed that boundary conditions were the dominant contributors to ozone concentrations at the western U.S. locations, and were important for many of the eastern U.S. LOCATIONS Point sources were generally more important in the eastern United States than in the western United States. The contributions of on-road mobile emissions were less than 5 ppb at a majority of the cities selected for analysis. The higher-order decoupled direct method (HDDM) results showed that in most of the locations selected for analysis, NOx emission reductions were more effective than VOC emission reductions in reducing ozone levels. The source attribution results from this study provide useful information on the important source categories and provide some initial guidance on future emission reduction strategies. IMPLICATIONS The relationship between emission reductions and changes in ozone can be studied using photochemical grid models, which are updated with new available information. This study was to update the previous Collet et al. studies by using the most current, at the time the study was done, models and inventory to conduct ozone source attribution and sensitivity studies. The source attribution results from this study provide useful information on the important source categories and provide some initial guidance on future emission reduction strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Susan Collet
- a Toyota Motor North America, Inc ., Ann Arbor , MI , USA
| | | | | | - Tejas Shah
- c Ramboll-Environ US Corporation , Novato , CA , USA
| | - Jaegun Jung
- c Ramboll-Environ US Corporation , Novato , CA , USA
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