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Cocorpus J, Holman S, Yager JE, Helzner E, Sardar M, Kohlhoff S, Smith-Norowitz TA. Viral Load Suppression in People Living with HIV Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Brooklyn, New York. AIDS Behav 2024; 28:2961-2969. [PMID: 38836987 DOI: 10.1007/s10461-024-04385-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 05/15/2024] [Indexed: 06/06/2024]
Abstract
Consistent care is crucial for the health maintenance of people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (PWH). The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic disrupted patient care in New York City (NYC), yet few studies investigated the association between COVID-19 and viral load suppression in PWH in NYC. This study aims to assess how the COVID-19 pandemic impacted HIV viral load and CD4 + T-cell counts in PWH. Medical records of 1130 adult HIV patients who visited the Special Treatment and Research Health Center in Brooklyn, NY, between January 2019 and May 2023 were compared across three timeframes (pre-pandemic, January 1, 2019 to December 31, 2019; first pandemic phase, March 19, 2020 to December 31, 2020; and second pandemic phase, January 1, 2021 to May 11, 2023). Demographic and clinical variables (e.g. viral load and CD4 + T cell count) were assessed. About 40% of patients did not have routine laboratory monitoring during the first pandemic phase compared with pre-pandemic. The mean HIV viral load was higher during the second pandemic phase compared with pre-pandemic (p = 0.009). The percentages of patients with undetectable HIV viral load and numbers (mm3) of CD4 + T-cells were similar for all time periods. These findings indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic may have exacerbated challenges for individuals who already had barriers to medication adherence or access. However, most individuals remained consistently on their antiretrovirals throughout the pandemic. Further studies are warranted to determine how to mitigate the impact of future pandemics for the health of PWH.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jenelle Cocorpus
- Department of Pediatrics, SUNY Downstate Health Sciences University, Box 49, 450 Clarkson Ave, Brooklyn, NY, 11203, USA
| | - Susan Holman
- Department of Medicine, SUNY Downstate Health Sciences University, Brooklyn, NY, 11203, USA
| | - Jessica E Yager
- Department of Medicine, SUNY Downstate Health Sciences University, Brooklyn, NY, 11203, USA
| | - Elizabeth Helzner
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, SUNY Downstate Health Sciences University, Brooklyn, NY, 11203, USA
| | - Mohsin Sardar
- Department of Medicine, SUNY Downstate Health Sciences University, Brooklyn, NY, 11203, USA
| | - Stephan Kohlhoff
- Department of Pediatrics, SUNY Downstate Health Sciences University, Box 49, 450 Clarkson Ave, Brooklyn, NY, 11203, USA
| | - Tamar A Smith-Norowitz
- Department of Pediatrics, SUNY Downstate Health Sciences University, Box 49, 450 Clarkson Ave, Brooklyn, NY, 11203, USA.
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Gebreegziabher SB, Ashuro AA, Kumssa TH, Teferi MY, Alemayue EA, Datiko DG, Yimer SA, Shagre MB. Tuberculosis preventive treatment uptake among people living with HIV during COVID-19 period in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: a retrospective data review. BMC Infect Dis 2024; 24:499. [PMID: 38760665 PMCID: PMC11100166 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-024-09403-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/08/2023] [Accepted: 05/13/2024] [Indexed: 05/19/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Screening for tuberculosis (TB) and providing TB preventive treatment (TPT) along with antiretroviral therapy is key components of human immune deficiency virus (HIV) care. The uptake of TPT during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) period has not been adequately assessed in Addis Ababa City Administration. This study aimed at assessing TPT uptake status among People living with HIV (PLHIV) newly initiated on antiretroviral therapy during the COVID-19 period at all public hospitals of Addis Ababa City Administration, Ethiopia. METHODS A retrospective data review was conducted from April-July 2022. Routine District Health Information System 2 database was reviewed for the period from April 2020-March 2022. Proportion and mean with standard deviation were computed. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to assess factors associated with TPT completion. A p-value of < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS A total of 1,069 PLHIV, aged 18 years and above were newly initiated on antiretroviral therapy, and of these 1,059 (99.1%) underwent screening for TB symptoms. Nine hundred twelve (86.1%) were negative for TB symptoms. Overall, 78.8% (719) of cases who were negative for TB symptoms were initiated on TPT, and of these 70.5% and 22.8% were completed and discontinued TPT, respectively. Of 719 cases who were initiated on TPT, 334 (46.5%) and 385 (53.5%) were initiated on isoniazid plus rifapentine weekly for three months and Isoniazid preventive therapy daily for six months, respectively. PLHIV who were initiated on isoniazid plus rifapentine weekly for three months were more likely to complete TPT (adjusted odds ratio [AOR],1.68; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01, 2.79) compared to those who were initiated on Isoniazid preventive therapy daily for six months. CONCLUSION While the proportion of PLHIV screened for TB was high, TPT uptake was low and far below the national target of achieving 90% TPT coverage. Overall a considerable proportion of cases discontinued TPT in this study. Further strengthening of the programmatic management of latent TB infection among PLHIV is needed. Therefore, efforts should be made by the Addis Ababa City Administration Health Bureau authorities and program managers to strengthen the initiation and completion of TPT among PLHIV in public hospitals.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | - Daniel Gemechu Datiko
- USAID Eliminate TB Project Health Programs Group Management Sciences for Health, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Solomon Abebe Yimer
- Vaccine Research and Development Department, Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), Oslo, Norway
- Faculty of Medicine, Unit for Genome Dynamics, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Mulatu Biru Shagre
- USAID Eliminate TB Project KNCV Tuberculosis Foundation-Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
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Starshinova A, Osipov N, Dovgalyk I, Kulpina A, Belyaeva E, Kudlay D. COVID-19 and Tuberculosis: Mathematical Modeling of Infection Spread Taking into Account Reduced Screening. Diagnostics (Basel) 2024; 14:698. [PMID: 38611611 PMCID: PMC11011507 DOI: 10.3390/diagnostics14070698] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2024] [Revised: 03/17/2024] [Accepted: 03/23/2024] [Indexed: 04/14/2024] Open
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the cessation of many tuberculosis (TB) support programs and reduced screening coverage for TB worldwide. We propose a model that demonstrates, among other things, how undetected cases of TB affect the number of future M. tuberculosis (M. tb) infections. The analysis of official statistics on the incidence of TB, preventive examination coverage of the population, and the number of patients with bacterial excretion of M. tb in the Russian Federation from 2008 to 2021 is carried out. The desired model can be obtained due to the fluctuation of these indicators in 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic caused a dramatic reduction in TB interventions. Statistical analysis is carried out using R v.4.2.1. The resulting model describes the dependence of the detected incidence and prevalence of TB with bacterial excretion in the current year on the prevalence of TB with bacterial excretion in the previous year and on the coverage of preventive examinations in the current and previous years. The adjusted coefficient of model determination (adjusted R-squared) is 0.9969, indicating that the model contains almost no random component. It clearly shows that TB cases missed due to low screening coverage and left uncontrolled will lead to a significant increase in the number of new infections in the future. We may conclude that the obtained results clearly demonstrate the need for mass screening of the population in the context of the spread of TB infection, which makes it possible to timely identify patients with TB with bacterial excretion.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna Starshinova
- Almazov National Medical Research Centre, 197341 St. Petersburg, Russia;
| | - Nikolay Osipov
- Department of Steklov Mathematical, Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences, 191023 St. Petersburg, Russia;
- Mathematical Department, St. Petersburg State University, 199034 St. Petersburg, Russia
| | - Irina Dovgalyk
- Research Institute of Phthisiopulmonology, 190961 St. Petersburg, Russia;
| | - Anastasia Kulpina
- Almazov National Medical Research Centre, 197341 St. Petersburg, Russia;
- Medical Department, State Pediatric Medical University, 194100 St. Petersburg, Russia
| | | | - Dmitry Kudlay
- Department of Pharmacology, I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, 119435 Moscow, Russia;
- Immunology Department, Institute of Immunology FMBA, 115552 Moscow, Russia
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4
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Jackson S, Kabir Z, Comiskey C. Retrospective cohort study exploring the impact of universal Tuberculosis (TB) vaccination cessation on the epidemiology of paediatric TB in Ireland, 2011-2021. Vaccine 2024; 42:2099-2105. [PMID: 38423810 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.02.061] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/26/2024] [Revised: 02/19/2024] [Accepted: 02/21/2024] [Indexed: 03/02/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Since 2010, Ireland's Tuberculosis (TB) crude incidence rate (CIR) remains below 10 per 100,000 population defining it as a low TB incidence country. Ireland maintained a universal BCG vaccination programme until its discontinuation in 2015 due to lack of vaccine supply. This study explores the impact of discontinuing a national universal BCG vaccination programme on the epidemiology of paediatric TB cases. METHODS We retrospectively analysed TB notifications aged 0-6 years old reported to the Irish National TB Surveillance System between 2011 and 2021. Key epidemiological characteristics and temporal trends in TB age specific incidence rates (ASIRs) were compared between 0 and 6 year old cases born during a period of universal BCG vaccination (2007-2015) and 0-6 year old cases born after BCG vaccination ceased (2015-2021). RESULTS No significant temporal trend was detected in the overall 0-6 year old ASIR by notification year during 2011-2021 (IRR:0.95; 0.86-1.1). However, the temporal trend for cases born during universal vaccination showed a significant decline (0.74; CIR: 0.62-0.89) while cases born after BCG vaccination ceased had a non-significant increase (1.2; CIR: 0.73-1.86). A significantly declining temporal trend was detected among cases born in Ireland during universal vaccination (IRR:0.73; 0.62-0.86), but no significant trend was detected in the cases born outside Ireland during universal vaccination (IRR:0.83; 0.53-1.31). No significant trend was detected in cases born after vaccination ceased in either cases born in Ireland (IRR:1.0; 0.60-1.65) or those born outside Ireland (IRR:0.64; 0.29-1.40). CONCLUSIONS Universal BCG cessation has not yet directly impacted on TB cases among 0-6 year olds in Ireland. However, interruption of the previously declining temporal trend in this cohort during universal vaccination may be an early warning of a future increase. Paediatric TB cases remain an important cohort for timely surveillance to monitor trends in this primarily unvaccinated cohort to evaluate the long-term effects.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah Jackson
- School of Nursing and Midwifery, Trinity College Dublin, University of Dublin, Ireland; Health Service Executive - Health Protection Surveillance Centre, Dublin, Ireland.
| | - Zubair Kabir
- School of Public Health, University College Cork, Ireland.
| | - Catherine Comiskey
- School of Nursing and Midwifery, Trinity College Dublin, University of Dublin, Ireland.
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Forero-Peña DA, Carrión-Nessi FS, Forero-Peña JL, Camejo-Ávila NA, Mendoza-Millán DL, Omaña-Ávila ÓD, Maricuto AL, Velásquez VL, Mejía-Bernard MD, Rodriguez-Saavedra CM, Marcano-Rojas MV, Contreras Y, Guerra LJ, Alvarado MF, Carballo M, Caldera J, Guevara RN, Redondo MC, Landaeta ME. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on people living with HIV: a cross-sectional study in Caracas, Venezuela. BMC Infect Dis 2024; 24:87. [PMID: 38225550 PMCID: PMC10789023 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-023-08967-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2023] [Accepted: 12/29/2023] [Indexed: 01/17/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted multiple health services, including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing, care, and treatment services, jeopardizing the achievement of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS 90-90-90 global target. While there are limited studies assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on people living with HIV (PLHIV) in Latin America, there are none, to our knowledge, in Venezuela. This study aims to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic among PLHIV seen at the outpatient clinic of a reference hospital in Venezuela. METHODS We conducted a cross-sectional study among PLHIV aged 18 years and over seen at the Infectious Diseases Department of the University Hospital of Caracas, Venezuela between March 2021 and February 2022. RESULTS A total of 238 PLHIV were included in the study. The median age was 43 (IQR 31-55) years, and the majority were male (68.9%). Most patients (88.2%, n = 210) came for routine check-ups, while 28 (11.3%) were newly diagnosed. The majority of patients (96.1%) were on antiretroviral therapy (ART), but only 67.8% had a viral load test, with almost all (95.6%) being undetectable. Among those who attended regular appointments, 11.9% reported missing at least one medical consultation, and 3.3% reported an interruption in their ART refill. More than half of the patients (55.5%) had received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, while the rest expressed hesitancy to get vaccinated. Most patients with COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy were male (65.1%), younger than 44 years (57.5%), employed (47.2%), and had been diagnosed with HIV for less than one year (33%). However, no statistically significant differences were found between vaccinated patients and those with COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. Older age was a risk factor for missing consultations, while not having an alcoholic habit was identified as a protective factor against missing consultations. CONCLUSION This study found that the COVID-19 pandemic had a limited impact on adherence to medical consultations and interruptions in ART among PLHIV seen at the University Hospital of Caracas, Venezuela.
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Affiliation(s)
- David A Forero-Peña
- Biomedical Research and Therapeutic Vaccines Institute, Ciudad Bolivar, Venezuela.
- Infectious Diseases Department, University Hospital of Caracas, Caracas, Venezuela.
- "Luis Razetti" School of Medicine, Central University of Venezuela, Caracas, Venezuela.
| | - Fhabián S Carrión-Nessi
- Biomedical Research and Therapeutic Vaccines Institute, Ciudad Bolivar, Venezuela.
- "Luis Razetti" School of Medicine, Central University of Venezuela, Caracas, Venezuela.
| | - José L Forero-Peña
- Biomedical Research and Therapeutic Vaccines Institute, Ciudad Bolivar, Venezuela
| | | | - Daniela L Mendoza-Millán
- Biomedical Research and Therapeutic Vaccines Institute, Ciudad Bolivar, Venezuela
- "Luis Razetti" School of Medicine, Central University of Venezuela, Caracas, Venezuela
| | - Óscar D Omaña-Ávila
- Biomedical Research and Therapeutic Vaccines Institute, Ciudad Bolivar, Venezuela
- "Luis Razetti" School of Medicine, Central University of Venezuela, Caracas, Venezuela
| | - Andrea L Maricuto
- Biomedical Research and Therapeutic Vaccines Institute, Ciudad Bolivar, Venezuela
- Infectious Diseases Department, University Hospital of Caracas, Caracas, Venezuela
| | - Viledy L Velásquez
- Infectious Diseases Department, University Hospital of Caracas, Caracas, Venezuela
| | - Mario D Mejía-Bernard
- Biomedical Research and Therapeutic Vaccines Institute, Ciudad Bolivar, Venezuela
- "Luis Razetti" School of Medicine, Central University of Venezuela, Caracas, Venezuela
| | | | | | - Yoesmir Contreras
- Biomedical Research and Therapeutic Vaccines Institute, Ciudad Bolivar, Venezuela
| | - Luis J Guerra
- Infectious Diseases Department, University Hospital of Caracas, Caracas, Venezuela
| | - María F Alvarado
- Infectious Diseases Department, University Hospital of Caracas, Caracas, Venezuela
| | - Martín Carballo
- Infectious Diseases Department, University Hospital of Caracas, Caracas, Venezuela
| | - Jocays Caldera
- Infectious Diseases Department, University Hospital of Caracas, Caracas, Venezuela
| | - Rafael N Guevara
- Infectious Diseases Department, University Hospital of Caracas, Caracas, Venezuela
| | - María C Redondo
- Infectious Diseases Department, University Hospital of Caracas, Caracas, Venezuela
| | - María E Landaeta
- Infectious Diseases Department, University Hospital of Caracas, Caracas, Venezuela
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Mumali RK, Okolimong C, Kabuuka T, Lubaale YM, Okibure A, Okello F, Soita D, Olupot-Olupot P. Health workers' adherence to the malaria test, treat and track strategy during the COVID-19 pandemic in malaria high transmission area in Eastern Uganda. Malar J 2023; 22:360. [PMID: 38012638 PMCID: PMC10680176 DOI: 10.1186/s12936-023-04786-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2023] [Accepted: 11/08/2023] [Indexed: 11/29/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic affected malaria control activities in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) resulting in 690,000 excess deaths in the year 2021. The authors hypothesized that COVID-19 affected the World Health Organization (WHO) Test, Treat and Track (T3) strategy that has been implemented in Uganda since 2010. In this study, health worker's adherence to the T3 strategy during COVID-19 pandemic in Eastern Uganda was studied by assessing their knowledge, skills and practices. METHODS A cross-sectional study utilizing mixed quantitative and qualitative data collections methods was conducted at Mbale Regional Referral Hospital in Eastern Uganda between November and December in 2020. Data were captured on demographics, knowledge, skills and practices for both health workers (HWs) and patients. Quantitative data were analysed using STATA 15.0 and reported as descriptive statistics, proportions and statistical associations. Moreover, qualitative data were collected via key informant interviews (KII) among purposively sampled study participants and analysed thematically using NVIVO software. Ethical approval was obtained prior to the study. RESULTS A total of 436 study participants, of whom 103/436 (24%) and 333/436 (76%) were HWs and patients, respectively were studied. Among the HWs with mean age of 34 years (SD = 8.8 years), 81/103 (79%) had good practices, most 63/103 (61%) had good knowledge, and only 11/103 (10.7%) had good skills. Specifically, on the cadres, the laboratory personnel 19/103 (18%) had good knowledge 14/19 (74%) OR: 2.0 (95% CI 0.7-6) and were highly skilled OR: 4.6 (95% CI 1.2-18.1; P < 0.0150) compared to other cadres, respectively. Among the patients whose age ranged 3 months to 80 years (mean 17.8 years) and females 177/333 (53%); a majority 257/333 (77%) were tested, of whom 139/333 (42%) tested positive. Out of the positive cases, 115/333 (35%) were treated and tracked. About 75/333 (23%) were not tested but treated for malaria. Of the 168/239 (70.3%) patients tested, 115/168 (68.5%) were positive and treated, P = 0.0001. The KII revealed low level of In-service training, overwhelming number of patients and stock-out of supplies as a key factor for poor HW adherence to T3 strategy. CONCLUSIONS During COVID-19 pandemic period HWs adherence to T3 initiative was low as 27% malaria patients did not receive treatment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Richard Kabaka Mumali
- Department of Community and Public Health, Busitema University Faculty of Health Sciences, Mbale, Uganda.
- National Agricultural Research Organization (NARO), National Livestock Resources Research Institute (NaLIRRI), P.O. Box 5704, Kampala, Uganda.
| | - Charles Okolimong
- Department of Community and Public Health, Busitema University Faculty of Health Sciences, Mbale, Uganda
| | - Tonny Kabuuka
- National Agricultural Research Organization (NARO), National Livestock Resources Research Institute (NaLIRRI), P.O. Box 5704, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Yovani Moses Lubaale
- Department of Community and Public Health, Busitema University Faculty of Health Sciences, Mbale, Uganda
| | | | - Francis Okello
- Department of Community and Public Health, Busitema University Faculty of Health Sciences, Mbale, Uganda
- Varimetrics Group Limited, Mbale, Uganda
| | - David Soita
- Department of Community and Public Health, Busitema University Faculty of Health Sciences, Mbale, Uganda
| | - Peter Olupot-Olupot
- Department of Community and Public Health, Busitema University Faculty of Health Sciences, Mbale, Uganda
- Mbale Clinical Research Institute, P.O. Box 1966, Mbale, Uganda
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Kudryavtsev I, Zinchenko Y, Serebriakova M, Akisheva T, Rubinstein A, Savchenko A, Borisov A, Belenjuk V, Malkova A, Yablonskiy P, Kudlay D, Starshinova A. A Key Role of CD8+ T Cells in Controlling of Tuberculosis Infection. Diagnostics (Basel) 2023; 13:2961. [PMID: 37761328 PMCID: PMC10528134 DOI: 10.3390/diagnostics13182961] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/04/2023] [Revised: 08/30/2023] [Accepted: 09/13/2023] [Indexed: 09/29/2023] Open
Abstract
The main role in the control of tuberculosis infection is played by macrophages and Th1 and CD8+ T cells. The study aimed to identify the most diagnostically significant CD8+ T cell subsets in tuberculosis patients. METHODS Peripheral blood samples from patients with clinical, radiological, and bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis (TB, n = 32) and healthy subjects (HC, n = 31) were collected and analyzed using 10-color flow cytometry. RESULTS The frequency of the EM4 CD3+CD8+ cells was reduced in the peripheral blood of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis, while the relative and absolute number of EM1 CD3+CD8+ cells increased compared to the control group. CD57 expression was reduced in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis on EM1, EM2, and pE1 CD3+CD8+ cells, whereas the EM3 cells had a high level of CD57 expression. The relative and absolute number of Tc2 (CCR6-CXCR3-) cells in peripheral blood in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis was increased, while the frequency of Tc1 (CCR6-CXCR3+) was decreased, compared to healthy donors. CONCLUSIONS Patients with pulmonary tuberculosis have an abnormal CD3+CD8+ cell profile and demonstrate their impaired maturation and functional activity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Igor Kudryavtsev
- Institution of Experimental Medicine, Department of Immunology, 197376 St-Petersburg, Russia; (I.K.); (M.S.); (T.A.); (A.R.)
- Almazov National Medical Research Centre, 197341 St-Petersburg, Russia
| | - Yulia Zinchenko
- Research Institute of Phthisiopulmonology, 191036 St-Petersburg, Russia; (Y.Z.); (P.Y.)
| | - Maria Serebriakova
- Institution of Experimental Medicine, Department of Immunology, 197376 St-Petersburg, Russia; (I.K.); (M.S.); (T.A.); (A.R.)
| | - Tatiana Akisheva
- Institution of Experimental Medicine, Department of Immunology, 197376 St-Petersburg, Russia; (I.K.); (M.S.); (T.A.); (A.R.)
| | - Artem Rubinstein
- Institution of Experimental Medicine, Department of Immunology, 197376 St-Petersburg, Russia; (I.K.); (M.S.); (T.A.); (A.R.)
| | - Andrei Savchenko
- Federal Research Center «Krasnoyarsk Science Center» of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Scientific Research Institute of Medical Problems of the North, 660022 Krasnoyarsk, Russia; (A.S.); (A.B.); (V.B.)
| | - Alexandr Borisov
- Federal Research Center «Krasnoyarsk Science Center» of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Scientific Research Institute of Medical Problems of the North, 660022 Krasnoyarsk, Russia; (A.S.); (A.B.); (V.B.)
| | - Vasilij Belenjuk
- Federal Research Center «Krasnoyarsk Science Center» of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Scientific Research Institute of Medical Problems of the North, 660022 Krasnoyarsk, Russia; (A.S.); (A.B.); (V.B.)
| | - Anna Malkova
- Department of Molecular Biology, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Ariel University, Ariel 40700, Israel;
| | - Piotr Yablonskiy
- Research Institute of Phthisiopulmonology, 191036 St-Petersburg, Russia; (Y.Z.); (P.Y.)
- St. Petersburg Research Institute of Phthisiopulmonology, Ligovskii Prospect, 2–4, 191036 St-Petersburg, Russia
| | - Dmitry Kudlay
- Department of Pharmacology, I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, 119991 Moscow, Russia;
- NRC Institute of Immunology FMBA of Russia, 115552 Moscow, Russia
| | - Anna Starshinova
- Almazov National Medical Research Centre, 197341 St-Petersburg, Russia
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8
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Dorn F, Lange B, Braml M, Gstrein D, Nyirenda JLZ, Vanella P, Winter J, Fuest C, Krause G. The challenge of estimating the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 interventions - Toward an integrated economic and epidemiological approach. ECONOMICS AND HUMAN BIOLOGY 2022; 49:101198. [PMID: 36630757 PMCID: PMC9642024 DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2022.101198] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/29/2021] [Revised: 10/26/2022] [Accepted: 11/06/2022] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
Decisions on public health measures to contain a pandemic are often based on parameters such as expected disease burden and additional mortality due to the pandemic. Both pandemics and non-pharmaceutical interventions to fight pandemics, however, produce economic, social, and medical costs. The costs are, for example, caused by changes in access to healthcare, social distancing, and restrictions on economic activity. These factors indirectly influence health outcomes in the short- and long-term perspective. In a narrative review based on targeted literature searches, we develop a comprehensive perspective on the concepts available as well as the challenges of estimating the overall disease burden and the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 interventions from both epidemiological and economic perspectives, particularly during the early part of a pandemic. We review the literature and discuss relevant components that need to be included when estimating the direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The review presents data sources and different forms of death counts, and discusses empirical findings on direct and indirect effects of the pandemic and interventions on disease burden as well as the distribution of health risks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Florian Dorn
- ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research, Munich, Germany; Department of Economics, University of Munich (LMU), Germany; CESifo Munich, Germany.
| | - Berit Lange
- Epidemiology Department, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research (HZI), Braunschweig, Germany; Hannover Medical School (MHH), Germany; German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Braunschweig, Germany
| | - Martin Braml
- ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research, Munich, Germany; World Trade Organization, Economic Research and Statistics Division, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - David Gstrein
- ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research, Munich, Germany; Department of Economics, University of Munich (LMU), Germany
| | - John L Z Nyirenda
- Epidemiology Department, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research (HZI), Braunschweig, Germany; University Hospital Freiburg, University of Freiburg, Germany
| | - Patrizio Vanella
- Epidemiology Department, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research (HZI), Braunschweig, Germany; Hannover Medical School (MHH), Germany; Department of Health Reporting & Biometrics, aQua-Institut, Göttingen, Germany
| | - Joachim Winter
- Department of Economics, University of Munich (LMU), Germany; CESifo Munich, Germany
| | - Clemens Fuest
- ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research, Munich, Germany; Department of Economics, University of Munich (LMU), Germany; CESifo Munich, Germany
| | - Gérard Krause
- Epidemiology Department, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research (HZI), Braunschweig, Germany; Hannover Medical School (MHH), Germany; German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Braunschweig, Germany
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