Using Genetic Variation to Explore the Causal Effect of Maternal Pregnancy Adiposity on Future Offspring Adiposity: A Mendelian Randomisation Study

Microglial function interacts with the environment to affect sex-specific depression risk

There is a two-fold higher incidence of depression in females compared to men with recent studies suggesting a role for microglia in conferring this sex-dependent depression risk. In this study we investigated the nature of this relation. Using GWAS enrichment, gene-set enrichment analysis and Mendelian randomization, we found minimal evidence for a direct relation between genes functionally related to microglia and sex-dependent genetic risk for depression. We then used expression quantitative trait loci and single nucleus RNA-sequencing resources to generate polygenic scores (PGS) representative of individual variation in microglial function in the adult (UK Biobank; N = 54753-72682) and fetal (ALSPAC; N = 1452) periods. The adult microglial PGS moderated the association between BMI (UK Biobank; beta = 0.001, 95 %CI 0.0009 to 0.003, P = 7.74E-6) and financial insecurity (UK Biobank; beta = 0.001, 95 %CI 0.005 to 0.015, P = 2E-4) with depressive symptoms in females. The fetal microglia PGS moderated the association between maternal prenatal depressive symptoms and offspring depressive symptoms at 24 years in females (ALSPAC; beta = 0.04, 95 %CI 0.004 to 0.07, P = 0.03). We found no evidence for an interaction between the microglial PGS and depression risk factors in males. Our results illustrate a role for microglial function in the conferral of sex-dependent depression risk following exposure to a depression risk factor.

Methodological approaches, challenges, and opportunities in the application of Mendelian randomisation to lifecourse epidemiology: A systematic literature review

Diseases diagnosed in adulthood may have antecedents throughout (including prenatal) life. Gaining a better understanding of how exposures at different stages in the lifecourse influence health outcomes is key to elucidating the potential benefits of disease prevention strategies. Mendelian randomisation (MR) is increasingly used to estimate causal effects of exposures across the lifecourse on later life outcomes. This systematic literature review explores MR methods used to perform lifecourse investigations and reviews previous work that has utilised MR to elucidate the effects of factors acting at different stages of the lifecourse. We conducted searches in PubMed, Embase, Medline and MedRXiv databases. Thirteen methodological studies were identified. Four studies focused on the impact of time-varying exposures in the interpretation of "standard" MR techniques, five presented methods for repeat measures of the same exposure, and four described methodological approaches to handling multigenerational exposures. A further 127 studies presented the results of an applied research question. Over half of these estimated effects in a single generation and were largely confined to the exploration of questions regarding body composition. The remaining mostly estimated maternal effects. There is a growing body of research focused on the development and application of MR methods to address lifecourse research questions. The underlying assumptions require careful consideration and the interpretation of results rely on select conditions. Whilst we do not advocate for a particular strategy, we encourage practitioners to make informed decisions on how to approach a research question in this field with a solid understanding of the limitations present and how these may be affected by the research question, modelling approach, instrument selection, and data availability.

Perinatal exposures and adolescence overweight: The role of shared maternal-offspring pathways

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Early life exposures affect offspring health across the life-course. We aimed to examine whether prevalent perinatal exposures and obstetric complications are independently associated with offspring overweight in adolescence. We then assessed whether shared maternal-offspring pathways drive the association of perinatal exposures with offspring overweight.

METHODS

Using data from the Jerusalem Perinatal Study birth cohort, two perinatal scores were constructed: obstetric complications (OC) and prevalent perinatal exposures (PPE) scores. PPE score, generated by principal component analysis, included three primary components. Logistic regressions were used to assess associations of scores with offspring overweight, with and without adjustment for maternal life-course survival.

RESULTS

OC and PPE scores were independently associated with offspring overweight (OROC = 1.15, 95%CI:1.07,1.25; ORPPE1- SEP and lifestyle = 0.85, 95%CI:0.79,0.91; ORPPE2- Maternal body size = 1.20, 95%CI: 1.13,1.28; ORPPE3-Fetal growth = 1.18, 95%CI:1.11,1.26). Maternal survival was associated with offspring overweight (OR = 1.38, 95%CI:1.08,1.76), yet introducing PPE score to the same model attenuated this association (OR = 1.16, 95%CI:0.90, 1.49). When OC score and maternal survival were included in the same model, their associations with offspring overweight remained unchanged.

CONCLUSIONS

Mother-offspring shared factors, captured by maternal life-course survival, underlie the effect of prevalent perinatal exposures on offspring overweight. However, the effect of obstetric complications was independent, highlighting the contribution of additional pathways.

Body mass index in parents and their adult offspring: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Obesity may track across generations, due to genetics and shared family environmental factors, or possibly intrauterine programming. However, many studies only assess associations between maternal body mass index (BMI) and offspring BMI in childhood. To determine whether maternal and paternal associations with offspring BMI differ and whether associations persist into adulthood, a systematic review and meta-analysis was done. PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Google Scholar (to October 2022) were searched. Observational studies reporting associations between maternal or paternal BMI and adult offspring BMI were included. Offspring BMIs were reported as continuous or categorical measures. Forty-six studies were included in the systematic review. Meta-analyses were conducted using random-effects models. Parental BMI was positively associated with offspring BMI in adulthood. The pooled mother-offspring standardized mean difference (SMD) was 0.23 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.20, 0.26), and father-offspring SMD was similar: 0.22 (95% CI: 0.19, 0.25) in adjusted models. Offspring of mothers with overweight or obesity had the same risk of higher BMI as offspring of fathers with overweight or obesity. If these associations are causal, they support interventions targeting all family members, rather than focusing solely on mothers, to obtain a healthy weight development among offspring.

Impact of parental lifestyle patterns in the preconception and pregnancy periods on childhood obesity

Introduction

High prevalence of overweight and obesity already observed in preschool children suggests the involvement of early-life risk factors. Preconception period and pregnancy are crucial windows for the implementation of child obesity prevention interventions with parental lifestyle factors as relevant targets. So far, most studies have evaluated their role separately, with only a few having investigated their potential synergistic effect on childhood obesity. Our objective was to investigate parental lifestyle patterns in the preconception and pregnancy periods and their association with the risk of child overweight after 5 years.

Materials and methods

We harmonized and interpreted results from four European mother-offspring cohorts participating in the EndObesity Consortium [EDEN, France; Elfe, France; Lifeways, Ireland; and Generation R, Netherlands] with data available for 1,900, 18,000, 1,100, and 9,500 families, respectively. Lifestyle factors were collected using questionnaires and included parental smoking, body mass index (BMI), gestational weight gain, diet, physical activity, and sedentary behavior. We applied principal component analyses to identify parental lifestyle patterns in preconception and pregnancy. Their association with risk of overweight (including obesity; OW-OB) and BMI z-scores between 5 and 12 years were assessed using cohort-specific multivariable logistic and linear and regression models (adjusted for potential confounders including parental age, education level, employment status, geographic origin, parity, and household income).

Results

Among the various lifestyle patterns derived in all cohorts, the two explaining the most variance were characterized by (1) "high parental smoking, low maternal diet quality (and high maternal sedentary behavior in some cohorts)" and, (2) "high parental BMI and low gestational weight gain." Patterns characterized by high parental BMI, smoking, low diet quality or high sedentary lifestyle before or during pregnancy were associated with higher risk of OW-OB in children, and BMI z-score at any age, with consistent strengths of associations in the main cohorts, except for lifeways.

Conclusion

This project provides insight into how combined parental lifestyle factors in the preconception and pregnancy periods are associated with the future risk of child obesity. These findings are valuable to inform family-based and multi-behavioural child obesity prevention strategies in early life.

Leptin receptor co-expression gene network moderates the effect of early life adversity on eating behavior in children

Leptin influences eating behavior. Exposure to early adversity is associated with eating behaviour disorders and metabolic syndrome, but the role of the leptin receptor on this relationship is poorly explored. We investigated whether individual differences in brain region specific leptin receptor (LepR) gene networks could moderate the effects of early adversity on eating behavior and metabolism. We created an expression-based polygenic risk score (ePRS) reflecting variations in the function of LepR gene network in prefrontal cortex and hypothalamus to investigate the interactions between a cumulative index of postnatal adversity on eating behavior in two independent birth cohorts (MAVAN and GUSTO). To explore whether variations in the prefrontal cortex or hypothalamic genetic scores could be associated with metabolic measurements, we also assessed the relationship between LepR-ePRS and fasting blood glucose and leptin levels in a third independent cohort (ALSPAC). We identified significant interaction effects between postnatal adversity and prefrontal-based LepR-ePRS on the Child Eating Behavior Questionnaire scores. In MAVAN, we observed a significant interaction effect on food enjoyment at 48 months (β = 61.58, p = 0.015) and 72 months (β = 97.78, p = 0.001); food responsiveness at 48 months (β = 83.79, p = 0.009) satiety at 48 months (β = −43.63, p = 0.047). Similar results were observed in the GUSTO cohort, with a significant interaction effect on food enjoyment (β = 30.48, p = 0.006) food fussiness score (β = −24.07, p = 0.02) and satiety score at 60 months (β = −17.00, p = 0.037). No effects were found when focusing on the hypothalamus-based LepR-ePRS on eating behavior in MAVAN and GUSTO cohorts, and there was no effect of hypothalamus and prefrontal cortex based ePRSs on metabolic measures in ALSPAC. Our study indicated that exposure to postnatal adversity interacts with prefrontal cortex LepR-ePRS to moderate eating behavior, suggesting a neurobiological mechanism associated with the development of eating behavior problems in response to early adversity. The knowledge of these mechanisms may guide the understanding of eating patterns associated with risk for obesity in response to fluctuations in stress exposure early in life.

An expression-based polygenic risk score analysis of leptin receptor (LepR) genes suggests that LepR-specific genes co-expressed in the prefrontal cortex interact with exposure to postnatal adversity, potentially modulating eating behavior in children.

Childhood adversity and cardiometabolic biomarkers in mid-adulthood in the 1958 British birth cohort

Studies that have examined associations between adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and cardiometabolic biomarkers in adulthood are limited as they mainly focus on childhood maltreatment. This study aimed to examine the association between a range of prospectively and retrospectively reported ACEs and cardiometabolic biomarkers in mid-adulthood. Multiply-imputed data on 8511 participants from the National Child Development Study (1958 British birth cohort) were used. ACEs were prospectively reported at ages 7, 11 and 16, and retrospectively reported at age 33/44/45. Cardiometabolic outcomes assessed at age 44/45 included glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), cholesterol (total, low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and high-density lipoprotein (HDL)), triglycerides, blood pressure (systolic and diastolic), body mass index, waist circumference and metabolic syndrome. Parental separation/divorce, physical neglect, emotional neglect and psychological abuse were associated with lower HDL cholesterol. Parental offending and physical neglect were associated with higher triglyceride concentrations. Parental offending was also associated with increased HbA1c. Exposure to 2+ (vs. 0) prospective ACEs was associated with lower HDL cholesterol. All these associations were after adjustment for sex and multiple early life factors. To conclude, several individual ACEs are associated with poorer cardiometabolic risk factor profiles in mid-adulthood. Furthermore, exposure to two or more prospective ACEs is associated with lower HDL cholesterol concentrations in mid-adulthood.

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Parental separation/divorce in childhood is associated with lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol in mid-adulthood.

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Physical neglect in childhood is associated with poorer lipid profiles in mid-adulthood.

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Psychological abuse in childhood is associated with lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol in mid-adulthood.

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Parental offending in childhood is associated with higher triglycerides and glycated haemoglobin in mid-adulthood.

Research Review: How to interpret associations between polygenic scores, environmental risks, and phenotypes

BACKGROUND

Genetic influences are ubiquitous as virtually all phenotypes and most exposures typically classified as environmental have been found to be heritable. A polygenic score summarises the associations between millions of genetic variants and an outcome in a single value for each individual. Ever lowering costs have enabled the genotyping of many samples relevant to child psychology and psychiatry research, including cohort studies, leading to the proliferation of polygenic score studies. It is tempting to assume that associations detected between polygenic scores and phenotypes in those studies only reflect genetic effects. However, such associations can reflect many pathways (e.g. via environmental mediation) and biases.

METHODS

Here, we provide a comprehensive overview of the many reasons why associations between polygenic scores, environmental exposures, and phenotypes exist. We include formal representations of common analyses in polygenic score studies using structural equation modelling. We derive biases, provide illustrative empirical examples and, when possible, mention steps that can be taken to alleviate those biases.

RESULTS

Structural equation models and derivations show the many complexities arising from jointly modelling polygenic scores with environmental exposures and phenotypes. Counter-intuitive examples include that: (a) associations between polygenic scores and phenotypes may exist even in the absence of direct genetic effects; (b) associations between child polygenic scores and environmental exposures can exist in the absence of evocative/active gene-environment correlations; and (c) adjusting an exposure-outcome association for a polygenic score can increase rather than decrease bias.

CONCLUSIONS

Strikingly, using polygenic scores may, in some cases, lead to more bias than not using them. Appropriately conducting and interpreting polygenic score studies thus requires researchers in child psychology and psychiatry and beyond to be versed in both epidemiological and genetic methods or build on interdisciplinary collaborations.

Investigating causal relations between sleep duration and risks of adverse pregnancy and perinatal outcomes: linear and nonlinear Mendelian randomization analyses

BACKGROUND

Observational studies have reported maternal short/long sleep duration to be associated with adverse pregnancy and perinatal outcomes. However, it remains unclear whether there are nonlinear causal effects. Our aim was to use Mendelian randomization (MR) and multivariable regression to examine nonlinear effects of sleep duration on stillbirth (MR only), miscarriage (MR only), gestational diabetes, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, perinatal depression, preterm birth and low/high offspring birthweight.

METHODS

We used data from European women in UK Biobank (N=176,897), FinnGen (N=~123,579), Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (N=6826), Born in Bradford (N=2940) and Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study (MoBa, N=14,584). We used 78 previously identified genetic variants as instruments for sleep duration and investigated its effects using two-sample, and one-sample nonlinear (UK Biobank only), MR. We compared MR findings with multivariable regression in MoBa (N=76,669), where maternal sleep duration was measured at 30 weeks.

RESULTS

In UK Biobank, MR provided evidence of nonlinear effects of sleep duration on stillbirth, perinatal depression and low offspring birthweight. Shorter and longer duration increased stillbirth and low offspring birthweight; shorter duration increased perinatal depression. For example, longer sleep duration was related to lower risk of low offspring birthweight (odds ratio 0.79 per 1 h/day (95% confidence interval: 0.67, 0.93)) in the shortest duration group and higher risk (odds ratio 1.40 (95% confidence interval: 1.06, 1.84)) in the longest duration group, suggesting shorter and longer duration increased the risk. These were supported by the lack of evidence of a linear effect of sleep duration on any outcome using two-sample MR. In multivariable regression, risks of all outcomes were higher in the women reporting <5 and ≥10 h/day sleep compared with the reference category of 8-9 h/day, despite some wide confidence intervals. Nonlinear models fitted the data better than linear models for most outcomes (likelihood ratio P-value=0.02 to 3.2×10-52), except for gestational diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show shorter and longer sleep duration potentially causing higher risks of stillbirth, perinatal depression and low offspring birthweight. Larger studies with more cases are needed to detect potential nonlinear effects on hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, preterm birth and high offspring birthweight.

Associations between insomnia and pregnancy and perinatal outcomes: Evidence from mendelian randomization and multivariable regression analyses

BACKGROUND

Insomnia is common and associated with adverse pregnancy and perinatal outcomes in observational studies. However, those associations could be vulnerable to residual confounding or reverse causality. Our aim was to estimate the association of insomnia with stillbirth, miscarriage, gestational diabetes (GD), hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP), perinatal depression, preterm birth (PTB), and low/high offspring birthweight (LBW/HBW).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used 2-sample mendelian randomization (MR) with 81 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) instrumenting for a lifelong predisposition to insomnia. Our outcomes included ever experiencing stillbirth, ever experiencing miscarriage, GD, HDP, perinatal depression, PTB (gestational age <37 completed weeks), LBW (<2,500 grams), and HBW (>4,500 grams). We used data from women of European descent (N = 356,069, mean ages at delivery 25.5 to 30.0 years) from UK Biobank (UKB), FinnGen, Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), Born in Bradford (BiB), and the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort (MoBa). Main MR analyses used inverse variance weighting (IVW), with weighted median and MR-Egger as sensitivity analyses. We compared MR estimates with multivariable regression of insomnia in pregnancy on outcomes in ALSPAC (N = 11,745). IVW showed evidence of an association of genetic susceptibility to insomnia with miscarriage (odds ratio (OR): 1.60, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.18, 2.17, p = 0.002), perinatal depression (OR 3.56, 95% CI: 1.49, 8.54, p = 0.004), and LBW (OR 3.17, 95% CI: 1.69, 5.96, p < 0.001). IVW results did not support associations of insomnia with stillbirth, GD, HDP, PTB, and HBW, with wide CIs including the null. Associations of genetic susceptibility to insomnia with miscarriage, perinatal depression, and LBW were not observed in weighted median or MR-Egger analyses. Results from these sensitivity analyses were directionally consistent with IVW results for all outcomes, with the exception of GD, perinatal depression, and PTB in MR-Egger. Multivariable regression showed associations of insomnia at 18 weeks of gestation with perinatal depression (OR 2.96, 95% CI: 2.42, 3.63, p < 0.001), but not with LBW (OR 0.92, 95% CI: 0.69, 1.24, p = 0.60). Multivariable regression with miscarriage and stillbirth was not possible due to small numbers in index pregnancies. Key limitations are potential horizontal pleiotropy (particularly for perinatal depression) and low statistical power in MR, and residual confounding in multivariable regression.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we observed some evidence in support of a possible causal relationship between genetically predicted insomnia and miscarriage, perinatal depression, and LBW. Our study also found observational evidence in support of an association between insomnia in pregnancy and perinatal depression, with no clear multivariable evidence of an association with LBW. Our findings highlight the importance of healthy sleep in women of reproductive age, though replication in larger studies, including with genetic instruments specific to insomnia in pregnancy are important.

Placental DNA Methylation in pregnancies complicated by maternal diabetes and/or obesity: State of the Art and research gaps

SUMMARYMaternal diabetes and/or obesity in pregnancy are undoubtedly associated with later disease-risk in the offspring. The placenta, interposed between the mother and the fetus, is a potential mediator of this risk through epigenetic mechanisms, including DNA methylation. In recent years, multiple studies have identified differentially methylated CpG sites in the placental tissue DNA in pregnancies complicated by diabetes and obesity. We reviewed all published original research relevant to this topic and analyzed our findings with the focus of identifying overlaps, contradictions and gaps. Most studies focused on the association of gestational diabetes and/or hyperglycemia in pregnancy and DNA methylation in placental tissue at term. We identified overlaps in results related to specific candidate genes, but also observed a large research gap of pregnancies affected by type 1 diabetes. Other unanswered questions relate to analysis of specific placental cell types and the timing of DNA methylation change in response to diabetes and obesity during pregnancy. Maternal metabolism is altered already in the first trimester involving structural and functional changes in the placenta, but studies into its effects on placental DNA methylation during this period are lacking and urgently needed. Fetal sex is also an important determinant of pregnancy outcome, but only few studies have taken this into account. Collectively, we provide a reference work for researchers working in this large and evolving field. Based on the results of the literature review, we formulate suggestions for future focus of placental DNA methylation studies in pregnancies complicated by diabetes and obesity.

Exploring the causal effect of maternal pregnancy adiposity on offspring adiposity: Mendelian randomisation using polygenic risk scores

BACKGROUND

Greater maternal adiposity before or during pregnancy is associated with greater offspring adiposity throughout childhood, but the extent to which this is due to causal intrauterine or periconceptional mechanisms remains unclear. Here, we use Mendelian randomisation (MR) with polygenic risk scores (PRS) to investigate whether associations between maternal pre-/early pregnancy body mass index (BMI) and offspring adiposity from birth to adolescence are causal.

METHODS

We undertook confounder adjusted multivariable (MV) regression and MR using mother-offspring pairs from two UK cohorts: Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) and Born in Bradford (BiB). In ALSPAC and BiB, the outcomes were birthweight (BW; N = 9339) and BMI at age 1 and 4 years (N = 8659 to 7575). In ALSPAC only we investigated BMI at 10 and 15 years (N = 4476 to 4112) and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) determined fat mass index (FMI) from age 10-18 years (N = 2659 to 3855). We compared MR results from several PRS, calculated from maternal non-transmitted alleles at between 29 and 80,939 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs).

RESULTS

MV and MR consistently showed a positive association between maternal BMI and BW, supporting a moderate causal effect. For adiposity at most older ages, although MV estimates indicated a strong positive association, MR estimates did not support a causal effect. For the PRS with few SNPs, MR estimates were statistically consistent with the null, but had wide confidence intervals so were often also statistically consistent with the MV estimates. In contrast, the largest PRS yielded MR estimates with narrower confidence intervals, providing strong evidence that the true causal effect on adolescent adiposity is smaller than the MV estimates (Pdifference = 0.001 for 15-year BMI). This suggests that the MV estimates are affected by residual confounding, therefore do not provide an accurate indication of the causal effect size.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that higher maternal pre-/early-pregnancy BMI is not a key driver of higher adiposity in the next generation. Thus, they support interventions that target the whole population for reducing overweight and obesity, rather than a specific focus on women of reproductive age.

Instrumental variable analysis using offspring BMI in childhood as an indicator of parental BMI in relation to mortality

Childhood BMI shows associations with adult mortality, but these may be influenced by effects of ill health in childhood on BMI and later mortality. To avoid this, we used offspring childhood BMI as an instrumental variable (IV) for own BMI in relation to mortality and compared it with conventional associations of own childhood BMI and own mortality. We included 36,097 parent-offspring pairs with measured heights and weights from the Copenhagen School Health Records Register and register-based information on death. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using adjusted Cox regression models. For all-cause mortality, per zBMI at age 7 the conventional HR = 1.07 (95%CI: 1.04-1.09) in women and 1.02 (95%CI: 0.92-1.14) in men, whereas the IV HR = 1.23 (95%CI: 1.15-1.32) in women and 1.05 (95%CI: 0.94-1.17) in men. Per zBMI at age 13, the conventional HR = 1.11 (95%CI: 1.08-1.15) in women and 1.03 (95%CI: 0.99-1.06) in men, whereas the IV HR = 1.30 (95%CI: 1.19-1.42) in women and 1.15 (95%CI: 1.04-1.29) in men. Only conventional models showed indications of J-shaped associations. Our IV analyses suggest that there is a causal relationship between BMI and mortality that is positive at both high and low BMI values.

Prenatal and prepubertal exposures to tobacco smoke in men may cause lower lung function in future offspring: a three-generation study using a causal modelling approach

Mechanistic research suggests that lifestyle and environmental factors impact respiratory health across generations by epigenetic changes transmitted through male germ cells. Evidence from studies on humans is very limited.We investigated multigeneration causal associations to estimate the causal effects of tobacco smoking on lung function within the paternal line. We analysed data from 383 adult offspring (age 18-47 years; 52.0% female) and their 274 fathers, who had participated in the European Community Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS)/Respiratory Health in Northern Europe, Spain and Australia (RHINESSA) generation study and had provided valid measures of pre-bronchodilator lung function. Two counterfactual-based, multilevel mediation models were developed with: paternal grandmothers' smoking in pregnancy and fathers' smoking initiation in prepuberty as exposures; fathers' forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC), or FEV1/FVC z-scores as potential mediators (proxies of unobserved biological mechanisms that are true mediators); and offspring's FEV1 and FVC, or FEV1/FVC z-scores as outcomes. All effects were summarised as differences (Δ) in expected z-scores related to fathers' and grandmothers' smoking history.Fathers' smoking initiation in prepuberty had a negative direct effect on both offspring's FEV1 (Δz-score -0.36, 95% CI -0.63- -0.10) and FVC (-0.50, 95% CI -0.80- -0.20) compared with fathers' never smoking. Paternal grandmothers' smoking in pregnancy had a negative direct effect on fathers' FEV1/FVC (-0.57, 95% CI -1.09- -0.05) and a negative indirect effect on offspring's FEV1/FVC (-0.12, 95% CI -0.21- -0.03) compared with grandmothers' not smoking before fathers' birth nor during fathers' childhood.Fathers' smoking in prepuberty and paternal grandmothers' smoking in pregnancy may cause lower lung function in offspring. Our results support the concept that lifestyle-related exposures during these susceptibility periods influence the health of future generations.

Early Life Adversity and Polygenic Risk for High Fasting Insulin Are Associated With Childhood Impulsivity

While the co-morbidity between metabolic and psychiatric behaviors is well-established, the mechanisms are poorly understood, and exposure to early life adversity (ELA) is a common developmental risk factor. ELA is associated with altered insulin sensitivity and poor behavioral inhibition throughout life, which seems to contribute to the development of metabolic and psychiatric disturbances in the long term. We hypothesize that a genetic background associated with higher fasting insulin interacts with ELA to influence the development of executive functions (e.g., impulsivity in young children). We calculated the polygenic risk scores (PRSs) from the genome-wide association study (GWAS) of fasting insulin at different thresholds and identified the subset of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that best predicted peripheral insulin levels in children from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) cohort [N = 467; p_{t– initial} = 0.24 (10,296 SNPs), p_{t– refined} = 0.05 (57 SNPs)]. We then calculated the refined PRS (rPRS) for fasting insulin at this specific threshold in the children from the Maternal Adversity, Vulnerability and Neurodevelopment (MAVAN) cohort and investigated its interaction effect with adversity on an impulsivity task applied at 36 months. We found a significant effect of interaction between fasting insulin rPRS and adversity exposure predicting impulsivity measured by the Snack Delay Task at 36 months [β = −0.329, p = 0.024], such that higher PRS [β = −0.551, p = 0.009] was linked to more impulsivity in individuals exposed to more adversity. Enrichment analysis (MetaCore^TM) of the SNPs that compose the fasting insulin rPRS at this threshold was significant for certain nervous system development processes including dopamine D2 receptor signaling. Additional enrichment analysis (FUMA) of the genes mapped from the SNPs in the fasting insulin rPRS showed enrichment with the accelerated cognitive decline GWAS. Therefore, the genetic background associated with risk for adult higher fasting insulin moderates the impact of early adversity on childhood impulsivity.

Do genetic risk scores for childhood adiposity operate independent of BMI of their mothers?

OBJECTIVES

Genetic predisposition and maternal body mass index (BMI) are risk factors for childhood adiposity, defined by either BMI or overweight. We aimed to investigate whether childhood-specific genetic risk scores (GRSs) for adiposity-related traits are associated with childhood adiposity independent of maternal BMI, or whether the associations are modified by maternal BMI.

METHODS

We constructed a weighted 26-SNP child BMI-GRS and a weighted 17-SNP child obesity-GRS in overall 1674 genotyped children within the Danish National Birth Cohort. We applied a case-cohort (N = 1261) and exposure-based cohort (N = 912) sampling design. Using logistic regression models we estimated associations of the GRSs and child overweight at age 7 years and examined if the GRSs influence child adiposity independent of maternal BMI (per standard deviation units).

RESULTS

In the case-cohort design analysis, maternal BMI and the child GRSs were associated with increased odds for childhood overweight [OR for maternal BMI: 2.01 (95% CI: 1.86; 2.17), OR for child BMI-GRS: 1.56 (95% CI: 1.47; 1.66), and OR for child obesity-GRS 1.46 (95% CI: 1.37; 1.54)]. Adjustment for maternal BMI did not change the results, and there were no significant interactions between the GRSs and maternal BMI. However, in the exposure-based cohort design analysis, significant interactions between the child GRSs and maternal BMI on child overweight were observed, suggesting 0.85-0.87-fold attenuation on ORs of child overweight at higher values of maternal BMI and child GRS.

CONCLUSION

GRSs for childhood adiposity are strongly associated with childhood adiposity even when adjusted for maternal BMI, suggesting that the child-specific GRSs and maternal BMI contribute to childhood overweight independent of each other. However, high maternal BMI may attenuate the effects of child GRSs in children.

Understanding the Long-Lasting Effects of Fetal Nutrient Restriction versus Exposure to an Obesogenic Diet on Islet-Cell Mass and Function

Early life represents a window of phenotypic plasticity. Thus, exposure of the developing fetus to a compromised nutritional environment can have long term consequences for their health. Indeed, undernutrition or maternal intake of an obesogenic diet during pregnancy leads to a heightened risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and obesity in her offspring in adult life. Given that abnormalities in beta-cell function are crucial in delineating the risk of T2D, studies have investigated the impact of these exposures on islet morphology and beta-cell function in the offspring in a bid to understand why they are more at risk of T2D. Interestingly, despite the contrasting maternal metabolic phenotype and, therefore, intrauterine environment associated with undernutrition versus high-fat feeding, there are a number of similarities in the genes/biological pathways that are disrupted in offspring islets leading to changes in function. Looking to the future, it will be important to define the exact mechanisms involved in mediating changes in the gene expression landscape in islet cells to determine whether the road to T2D development is the same or different in those exposed to different ends of the nutritional spectrum.

Job Absenteeism Costs of Obesity in the United States: National and State-Level Estimates

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the causal effect of obesity on job absenteeism and the associated lost productivity in the United States, both nationwide and by state.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective pooled cross-sectional analysis using the 2001 to 2016 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and estimated two-part models of instrumental variables.

RESULTS

Obesity, relative to normal weight, raises job absenteeism due to injury or illness by 3.0 days per year (128%). Annual productivity loss due to obesity ranges from $271 to $542 (lower/upper bound) per employee with obesity, with national productivity losses ranging from $13.4 to $26.8 billion in 2016. Trends in state-level estimates mirror those at the national level, varying across states.

CONCLUSIONS

Obesity significantly raises job absenteeism. Reductions in job absenteeism should be included when calculating the cost-effectiveness of interventions to prevent or reduce obesity among employed adults.

Adiposity and cardiovascular outcomes in three-year-old children of participants in UPBEAT, an RCT of a complex intervention in pregnant women with obesity

BACKGROUND

Maternal obesity is associated with offspring cardiometabolic risk. UPBEAT was a randomised controlled trial of an antenatal diet and physical activity intervention in 1555 women with obesity. The intervention was associated with lower gestational weight gain, healthier diet and metabolic profile in pregnancy, and reduced infant adiposity at six months.

OBJECTIVE

We have investigated whether the UPBEAT intervention influenced childhood cardiometabolic outcomes or was associated with sustained improvements in maternal lifestyle 3-years after delivery.

METHODS

In UPBEAT mother-child dyads at the 3-year follow-up, we assessed childhood blood pressure, resting pulse rate, and adiposity (body mass index, skinfold thicknesses, body fat, waist and arm circumferences) and maternal diet, physical activity, and anthropometry.

RESULTS

514 three-year-old children attended the appointment (49% intervention, 51% standard care). There was no difference in the main outcome of interest, subscapular skinfold thickness, between the trial arms (-0.30 mm, 95% confidence interval: -0.92, 0.31). However, the intervention was associated with a lower resting pulse rate (-5 bpm [-8.41, -1.07]). There was also a non-significant lower odds of overweight/obesity (OR 0.73; 0.50, 1.08). Maternal dietary improvements observed in the UPBEAT trial, including glycaemic load and saturated fat were maintained 3-years postpartum.

CONCLUSION

This study has demonstrated that an antenatal dietary and physical activity intervention in women with obesity is associated with lower offspring pulse rate and sustained improvement in maternal diet. Whilst larger than previous cohorts, there remains potential for bias from attrition and these findings require validation in future cohorts.

Evidence of detrimental effects of prenatal alcohol exposure on offspring birthweight and neurodevelopment from a systematic review of quasi-experimental studies

BACKGROUND

Systematic reviews of prenatal alcohol exposure effects generally only include conventional observational studies. However, estimates from such studies are prone to confounding and other biases.

OBJECTIVES

To systematically review the evidence on the effects of prenatal alcohol exposure from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational designs using alternative analytical approaches to improve causal inference.

SEARCH STRATEGY

Medline, Embase, Web of Science, PsychINFO from inception to 21 June 2018. Manual searches of reference lists of retrieved papers.

SELECTION CRITERIA

RCTs of interventions to stop/reduce drinking in pregnancy and observational studies using alternative analytical methods (quasi-experimental studies e.g. Mendelian randomization and natural experiments, negative control comparisons) to determine the causal effects of prenatal alcohol exposure on pregnancy and longer-term offspring outcomes in human studies.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

One reviewer extracted data and another checked extracted data. Risk of bias was assessed using customized risk of bias tools. A narrative synthesis of findings was carried out and a meta-analysis for one outcome.

MAIN RESULTS

Twenty-three studies were included, representing five types of study design, including 1 RCT, 9 Mendelian randomization and 7 natural experiment studies, and reporting on over 30 outcomes. One study design-outcome combination included enough independent results to meta-analyse. Based on evidence from several studies, we found a likely causal detrimental role of prenatal alcohol exposure on cognitive outcomes, and weaker evidence for a role in low birthweight.

CONCLUSION

None of the included studies was judged to be at low risk of bias in all domains, results should therefore be interpreted with caution.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

This study is registered with PROSPERO, registration number CRD42015015941.

Direct medical costs of obesity in the United States and the most populous states

BACKGROUND: After a dramatic increase in prevalence over several decades, obesity has become a major public health crisis in the United States. Research to date has consistently demonstrated a correlation between obesity and higher medical costs for a variety of U.S. subpopulations and specific categories of care. However, by examining associations rather than causal effects, previous studies likely underestimated the effect of obesity on medical expenditures. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the causal effect of obesity on direct medical care costs at the national and state levels. METHODS: This study is a pooled cross-sectional analysis of retrospective data from the 2001-2016 Medical Expenditure Panel Surveys. Adults aged 20-65 years with a biological child living in the household were included in the study sample. Primary outcomes were individual-level medical expenditures due to obesity, overall, as well as separately by type of payer and category of medical care. Results were reported at the national level and separately for the 20 most populous states. The expenditure estimates were obtained from 2-part models of instrumental variables in which the respondent's body mass index (BMI) was instrumented using the BMI of their biological child. RESULTS: Adults with obesity in the United States compared with those with normal weight experienced higher annual medical care costs by $2,505 or 100%, with costs increasing significantly with class of obesity, from 68.4% for class 1 to 233.6% for class 3. The effects of obesity raised costs in every category of care: inpatient, outpatient, and prescription drugs. Increases in medical expenditures due to obesity were higher for adults covered by public health insurance programs ($2,868) than for those having private health insurance ($2,058). In 2016, the aggregate medical cost due to obesity among adults in the United States was $260.6 billion. The increase in individual-level expenditures due to obesity varied considerably by state (e.g., 24.0% in Florida, 66.4% in New York, and 104.9% in Texas). CONCLUSIONS: The 2-part models of instrumental variables, which estimate the causal effects of obesity on direct medical costs, showed that the effect of obesity is greater than suggested by previous studies, which estimated only correlations. Much of the aggregate national cost of obesity-$260.6 billion-represents external costs, providing a rationale for interventions to prevent and reduce obesity. DISCLOSURES: Novo Nordisk financed the development of the study design, analysis, and interpretation of data, as well as writing support of the manuscript. Cawley, Biener, and Meyerhoefer received financial support from Novo Nordisk to conduct the research study on which this manuscript is based. Smolarz and Ramasamy are employees of Novo Nordisk. Ding and Zvenyach have no conflicts to declare. Our research has been presented as a poster at the 2020 Academy Health Annual Research Meeting (Virtual), July 28-August 6, 2020.

Mendelian randomisation approaches to the study of prenatal exposures: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Mendelian randomisation (MR) designs apply instrumental variable techniques using genetic variants to study causal effects. MR is increasingly used to evaluate the role of maternal exposures during pregnancy on offspring health.

OBJECTIVES

We review the application of MR to prenatal exposures and describe reporting of methodologic challenges in this area.

DATA SOURCES

We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Medline Ovid, Cochrane Central, Web of Science, and Google Scholar.

STUDY SELECTION AND DATA EXTRACTION

Eligible studies met the following criteria: (a) a maternal pregnancy exposure; (b) an outcome assessed in offspring of the pregnancy; and (c) a genetic variant or score proposed as an instrument or proxy for an exposure.

SYNTHESIS

We quantified the frequency of reporting of MR conditions stated, techniques used to examine assumption plausibility, and reported limitations.

RESULTS

Forty-three eligible studies were identified. When discussing challenges or limitations, the most common issues described were known potential biases in the broader MR literature, including population stratification (n = 29), weak instrument bias (n = 18), and certain types of pleiotropy (n = 30). Of 22 studies presenting point estimates for the effect of exposure, four defined their causal estimand. Twenty-four studies discussed issues unique to prenatal MR, including selection on pregnancy (n = 1) and pleiotropy via postnatal exposure (n = 10) or offspring genotype (n = 20).

CONCLUSIONS

Prenatal MR studies frequently discuss issues that affect all MR studies, but rarely discuss problems specific to the prenatal context, including selection on pregnancy and effects of postnatal exposure. Future prenatal MR studies should report and attempt to falsify their assumptions, with particular attention to issues specific to prenatal MR. Further research is needed to evaluate the impacts of biases unique to prenatal MR in practice.

Description, prediction and causation: Methodological challenges of studying child and adolescent development

Scientific research can be categorized into: a) descriptive research, with the main goal to summarize characteristics of a group (or person); b) predictive research, with the main goal to forecast future outcomes that can be used for screening, selection, or monitoring; and c) explanatory research, with the main goal to understand the underlying causal mechanism, which can then be used to develop interventions. Since each goal requires different research methods in terms of design, operationalization, model building and evaluation, it should form an important basis for decisions on how to set up and execute a study. To determine the extent to which developmental research is motivated by each goal and how this aligns with the research designs that are used, we evaluated 100 publications from the Consortium on Individual Development (CID). This analysis shows that the match between research goal and research design is not always optimal. We discuss alternative techniques, which are not yet part of the developmental scientist's standard toolbox, but that may help bridge some of the lurking gaps that developmental scientists encounter between their research design and their research goal. These include unsupervised and supervised machine learning, directed acyclical graphs, Mendelian randomization, and target trials.

Epigenetic Patterns in Five-Year-Old Children Exposed to a Low Glycemic Index Dietary Intervention during Pregnancy: Results from the ROLO Kids Study

A range of in utero and early-life factors can influence offspring epigenetics, particularly DNA methylation patterns. This study aimed to investigate the influence of a dietary intervention and factors in pregnancy on offspring epigenetic profile at five years of age. We also explored associations between body composition and methylation profile in a cross-sectional analysis. Sixty-three five-year-olds were selected from the ROLO Kids Study, a Randomized controlled trial Of a LOw glycemic index dietary intervention from the second trimester of pregnancy. DNA methylation was investigated in 780,501 CpG sites in DNA isolated from saliva. Principal component analysis identified no association between maternal age, weight, or body mass index (BMI) during pregnancy and offspring DNA methylation (p > 0.01). There was no association with the dietary intervention during pregnancy, however, gene pathway analysis identified functional clusters involved in insulin secretion and resistance that differed between the intervention and control. There were no associations with child weight or adiposity at five years of age; however, change in weight from six months was associated with variation in methylation. We identified no evidence of long-lasting influences of maternal diet or factors on DNA methylation at age five years. However, changes in child weight were associated with the methylome in childhood.

Mendelian randomization study of maternal influences on birthweight and future cardiometabolic risk in the HUNT cohort

There is a robust observational relationship between lower birthweight and higher risk of cardiometabolic disease in later life. The Developmental Origins of Health and Disease (DOHaD) hypothesis posits that adverse environmental factors in utero increase future risk of cardiometabolic disease. Here, we explore if a genetic risk score (GRS) of maternal SNPs associated with offspring birthweight is also associated with offspring cardiometabolic risk factors, after controlling for offspring GRS, in up to 26,057 mother-offspring pairs (and 19,792 father-offspring pairs) from the Nord-Trøndelag Health (HUNT) Study. We find little evidence for a maternal (or paternal) genetic effect of birthweight associated variants on offspring cardiometabolic risk factors after adjusting for offspring GRS. In contrast, offspring GRS is strongly related to many cardiometabolic risk factors, even after conditioning on maternal GRS. Our results suggest that the maternal intrauterine environment, as proxied by maternal SNPs that influence offspring birthweight, is unlikely to be a major determinant of adverse cardiometabolic outcomes in population based samples of individuals.

Maternal and infant prediction of the child BMI trajectories; studies across two generations of Northern Finland birth cohorts

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE

Children BMI is a longitudinal phenotype, developing through interplays between genetic and environmental factors. Whilst childhood obesity is escalating, we require a better understanding of its early origins and variation across generations to prevent it.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

We designed a cross-cohort study including 12,040 Finnish children from the Northern Finland Birth Cohorts 1966 and 1986 (NFBC1966 and NFBC1986) born before or at the start of the obesity epidemic. We used group-based trajectory modelling to identify BMI trajectories from 2 to 20 years. We subsequently tested their associations with early determinants (mother and child) and the possible difference between generations, adjusted for relevant biological and socioeconomic confounders.

RESULTS

We identified four BMI trajectories, 'stable-low' (34.8%), 'normal' (44.0%), 'stable-high' (17.5%) and 'early-increase' (3.7%). The 'early-increase' trajectory represented the highest risk for obesity. We analysed a dose-response association of maternal pre-pregnancy BMI and smoking with BMI trajectories. The directions of effect were consistent across generations and the effect sizes tended to increase from earlier generation to later. Respectively for NFBC1966 and NFBC1986, the adjusted risk ratios of being in the early-increase group were 1.08 (1.06-1.10) and 1.12 (1.09-1.15) per unit of pre-pregnancy BMI and 1.44 (1.05-1.96) and 1.48 (1.17-1.87) in offspring of smoking mothers compared to non-smokers. We observed similar relations with infant factors including birthweight for gestational age and peak weight velocity. In contrast, the age at adiposity peak in infancy was associated with the BMI trajectories in NFBC1966 but did not replicate in NFBC1986.

CONCLUSIONS

Exposures to adverse maternal predictors were associated with a higher risk obesity trajectory and were consistent across generations. However, we found a discordant association for the timing of adiposity peak over a 20-year period. This suggests the role of residual environmental factors, such as nutrition, and warrants additional research to understand the underlying gene-environment interplay.

Maternal Gestational Diabetes Mellitus Modifies the Relationship Between Genetically Determined Body Mass Index During Pregnancy and Childhood Obesity

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the interactions between maternal gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and genetically determined maternal body mass index (BMI) during pregnancy on offspring childhood obesity.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A total of 1114 Chinese mother-child pairs (560 GDM and 554 non-GDM) were included between August 2009 and July 2011. Maternal genetic risk score (GRS) of BMI during pregnancy was derived on the basis of 12 single nucleotide polymorphisms identified from a genome-wide association study. Offspring's BMI, BMI-for-age z score, weight, weight-for-age z score, waist circumference, sum of skinfolds, and body fat percentage during childhood were measured or calculated.

RESULTS

Maternal GRS of BMI during pregnancy significantly interacted with maternal GDM status on childhood risks of overweight and obesity (all P for interaction <.05). After multivariable adjustment, per unit of GRS was associated with a 24% (P<.001) and a 28% (P<.001) increased risk of overweight and obesity among children of GDM mothers, whereas no significant associations were observed among children of mothers without GDM. In addition, per unit GRS of BMI during pregnancy was significantly associated with 0.16 kg/m² higher BMI (P=.002), 0.09 higher BMI-for-age z score (P=.002), 0.24 kg higher weight (P=.04), 0.06 higher weight-for-age z score (P=.02), 0.28 cm higher waist circumference (P=.03), 0.94 mm higher sum of skinfolds (P=.004), and 0.37% higher body fat percentage (P=.03) among children of GDM mothers. There were no significant associations between maternal GRS of BMI during pregnancy and offspring's obesity-related outcomes among children of mothers without GDM.

CONCLUSION

Our findings for the first time indicate that maternal GDM status may modify the relation between genetically determined maternal BMI during pregnancy and offspring's obesity risk during childhood.

Dissecting maternal and fetal genetic effects underlying the associations between maternal phenotypes, birth outcomes, and adult phenotypes: A mendelian-randomization and haplotype-based genetic score analysis in 10,734 mother-infant pairs

BACKGROUND

Many maternal traits are associated with a neonate's gestational duration, birth weight, and birth length. These birth outcomes are subsequently associated with late-onset health conditions. The causal mechanisms and the relative contributions of maternal and fetal genetic effects behind these observed associations are unresolved.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Based on 10,734 mother-infant duos of European ancestry from the UK, Northern Europe, Australia, and North America, we constructed haplotype genetic scores using single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) known to be associated with adult height, body mass index (BMI), blood pressure (BP), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and type 2 diabetes (T2D). Using these scores as genetic instruments, we estimated the maternal and fetal genetic effects underlying the observed associations between maternal phenotypes and pregnancy outcomes. We also used infant-specific birth weight genetic scores as instrument and examined the effects of fetal growth on pregnancy outcomes, maternal BP, and glucose levels during pregnancy. The maternal nontransmitted haplotype score for height was significantly associated with gestational duration (p = 2.2 × 10-4). Both maternal and paternal transmitted height haplotype scores were highly significantly associated with birth weight and length (p < 1 × 10-17). The maternal transmitted BMI scores were associated with birth weight with a significant maternal effect (p = 1.6 × 10-4). Both maternal and paternal transmitted BP scores were negatively associated with birth weight with a significant fetal effect (p = 9.4 × 10-3), whereas BP alleles were significantly associated with gestational duration and preterm birth through maternal effects (p = 3.3 × 10-2 and p = 4.5 × 10-3, respectively). The nontransmitted haplotype score for FPG was strongly associated with birth weight (p = 4.7 × 10-6); however, the glucose-increasing alleles in the fetus were associated with reduced birth weight through a fetal effect (p = 2.2 × 10-3). The haplotype scores for T2D were associated with birth weight in a similar way but with a weaker maternal effect (p = 6.4 × 10-3) and a stronger fetal effect (p = 1.3 × 10-5). The paternal transmitted birth weight score was significantly associated with reduced gestational duration (p = 1.8 × 10-4) and increased maternal systolic BP during pregnancy (p = 2.2 × 10-2). The major limitations of the study include missing and heterogenous phenotype data in some data sets and different instrumental strength of genetic scores for different phenotypic traits.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that both maternal height and fetal growth are important factors in shaping the duration of gestation: genetically elevated maternal height is associated with longer gestational duration, whereas alleles that increase fetal growth are associated with shorter gestational duration. Fetal growth is influenced by both maternal and fetal effects and can reciprocally influence maternal phenotypes: taller maternal stature, higher maternal BMI, and higher maternal blood glucose are associated with larger birth size through maternal effects; in the fetus, the height- and metabolic-risk-increasing alleles are associated with increased and decreased birth size, respectively; alleles raising birth weight in the fetus are associated with shorter gestational duration and higher maternal BP. These maternal and fetal genetic effects may explain the observed associations between the studied maternal phenotypes and birth outcomes, as well as the life-course associations between these birth outcomes and adult phenotypes.

Within family Mendelian randomization studies

Mendelian randomization (MR) is increasingly used to make causal inferences in a wide range of fields, from drug development to etiologic studies. Causal inference in MR is possible because of the process of genetic inheritance from parents to offspring. Specifically, at gamete formation and conception, meiosis ensures random allocation to the offspring of one allele from each parent at each locus, and these are unrelated to most of the other inherited genetic variants. To date, most MR studies have used data from unrelated individuals. These studies assume that genotypes are independent of the environment across a sample of unrelated individuals, conditional on covariates. Here we describe potential sources of bias, such as transmission ratio distortion, selection bias, population stratification, dynastic effects and assortative mating that can induce spurious or biased SNP-phenotype associations. We explain how studies of related individuals such as sibling pairs or parent-offspring trios can be used to overcome some of these sources of bias, to provide potentially more reliable evidence regarding causal processes. The increasing availability of data from related individuals in large cohort studies presents an opportunity to both overcome some of these biases and also to evaluate familial environmental effects.

The medical care costs of obesity and severe obesity in youth: An instrumental variables approach

This paper is the first to use the method of instrumental variables to estimate the impact of obesity and severe obesity in youth. on U.S. medical care costs. We examine data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey for 2001-2015 and instrument for child BMI using the BMI of the child's biological mother. Instrumental variables estimates indicate that obesity in youth raises annual medical care costs by $907 (in 2015 dollars) or 92%, which is considerably higher than previous estimates of the association of youth obesity with medical costs. We find that obesity in youth significantly raises costs in all major categories of medical care: outpatient doctor visits, inpatient hospital stays, and prescription drugs. The costs of youth obesity are borne almost entirely by third-party payers, which is consistent with substantial externalities of youth obesity, which in turn represents an economic rationale for government intervention.

The influence of transmitted and non-transmitted parental BMI-associated alleles on the risk of overweight in childhood

Overweight in children is strongly associated with parental body mass index (BMI) and overweight. We assessed parental transmitted and non-transmitted genetic contributions to overweight in children from the Danish National Birth Cohort by constructing genetic risk scores (GRSs) from 941 common genetic variants associated with adult BMI and estimating associations of transmitted maternal/paternal and non-transmitted maternal GRS with child overweight. Maternal and paternal BMI (standard deviation (SD) units) had a strong association with childhood overweight [Odds ratio (OR): 2.01 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.74; 2.34) and 1.64 (95% CI 1.43; 1.89)]. Maternal and paternal transmitted GRSs (SD-units) increased odds for child overweight equally [OR: 1.30 (95% CI 1.16; 1.46) and 1.30 (95% CI 1.16; 1.47)]. However, both the parental phenotypic and the GRS associations may depend on maternal BMI, being weaker among mothers with overweight. Maternal non-transmitted GRS was not associated with child overweight [OR 0.98 (95% CI 0.88; 1.10)] suggesting no specific influence of maternal adiposity as such. In conclusion, parental transmitted GRSs, based on adult BMI, contribute to child overweight, but in overweight mothers other genetic and environmental factors may play a greater role.

Exploring the role of genetic confounding in the association between maternal and offspring body mass index: evidence from three birth cohorts

BACKGROUND

Maternal pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) is positively associated with offspring birth weight (BW) and BMI in childhood and adulthood. Each of these associations could be due to causal intrauterine effects, or confounding (genetic or environmental), or some combination of these. Here we estimate the extent to which the association between maternal BMI and offspring body size is explained by offspring genotype, as a first step towards establishing the importance of genetic confounding.

METHODS

We examined the associations of maternal pre-pregnancy BMI with offspring BW and BMI at 1, 5, 10 and 15 years, in three European birth cohorts (n ≤11 498). Bivariate Genomic-relatedness-based Restricted Maximum Likelihood implemented in the GCTA software (GCTA-GREML) was used to estimate the extent to which phenotypic covariance was explained by offspring genotype as captured by common imputed single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We merged individual participant data from all cohorts, enabling calculation of pooled estimates.

RESULTS

Phenotypic covariance (equivalent here to Pearson's correlation coefficient) between maternal BMI and offspring phenotype was 0.15 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.13, 0.17] for offspring BW, increasing to 0.29 (95% CI: 0.26, 0.31) for offspring 15 year BMI. Covariance explained by offspring genotype was negligible for BW [-0.04 (95% CI: -0.09, 0.01)], but increased to 0.12 (95% CI: 0.04, 0.21) at 15 years, which is equivalent to 43% (95% CI: 15%, 72%) of the phenotypic covariance. Sensitivity analyses using weight, BMI and ponderal index as the offspring phenotype at all ages showed similar results.

CONCLUSIONS

Offspring genotype explains a substantial fraction of the covariance between maternal BMI and offspring adolescent BMI. This is consistent with a potentially important role for genetic confounding as a driver of the maternal BMI-offspring BMI association.

Developmental Programming of Body Composition: Update on Evidence and Mechanisms

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

A growing body of epidemiological and experimental data indicate that nutritional or environmental stressors during early development can induce long-term adaptations that increase risk of obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and other chronic conditions-a phenomenon termed "developmental programming." A common phenotype in humans and animal models is altered body composition, with reduced muscle and bone mass, and increased fat mass. In this review, we summarize the recent literature linking prenatal factors to future body composition and explore contributing mechanisms.

RECENT FINDINGS

Many prenatal exposures, including intrauterine growth restriction, extremes of birth weight, maternal obesity, and maternal diabetes, are associated with increased fat mass, reduced muscle mass, and decreased bone density, with effects reported throughout infancy and childhood, and persisting into middle age. Mechanisms and mediators include maternal diet, breastmilk composition, metabolites, appetite regulation, genetic and epigenetic influences, stem cell commitment and function, and mitochondrial metabolism. Differences in body composition are a common phenotype following disruptions to the prenatal environment, and may contribute to developmental programming of obesity and diabetes risk.

Using genetic data to strengthen causal inference in observational research

Causal inference is essential across the biomedical, behavioural and social sciences.By progressing from confounded statistical associations to evidence of causal relationships, causal inference can reveal complex pathways underlying traits and diseases and help to prioritize targets for intervention. Recent progress in genetic epidemiology - including statistical innovation, massive genotyped data sets and novel computational tools for deep data mining - has fostered the intense development of methods exploiting genetic data and relatedness to strengthen causal inference in observational research. In this Review, we describe how such genetically informed methods differ in their rationale, applicability and inherent limitations and outline how they should be integrated in the future to offer a rich causal inference toolbox.

Testing for family influences on obesity: The role of genetic nurture

A large literature has documented strong positive correlations among siblings in health, including body mass index (BMI) and obesity. This paper tests whether that is explained by a specific type of peer effect in obesity: genetic nurture. Specifically, we test whether an individual's weight is affected by the genes of their sibling, controlling for the individual's own genes. Using genetic data in Add Health, we find no credible evidence that an individual's BMI is affected by the polygenic risk score for BMI of their full sibling when controlling for the individual's own polygenic risk score for BMI. Thus, we find no evidence that the positive correlations in BMI between siblings are attributable to genetic nurture within families.

Effect of maternal lifestyle intervention on metabolic health and adiposity of offspring: Findings from the Finnish Gestational Diabetes Prevention Study (RADIEL)

AIM

To assess in women at high risk of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) the effect of a lifestyle intervention on the metabolic health of their offspring around 5 years after delivery.

METHODS

For the original Finnish gestational diabetes prevention study (RADIEL), 720 women with a prepregnancy body mass index (BMI)≥30kg/m² and/or previous GDM were enrolled before or during early pregnancy and allocated to either an interventional (n=126) or conventional (n=133) care group. The present 5-year follow-up substudy assessed the metabolic health outcomes of their offspring. Age- and gender-standardized residuals of metabolic health components (waist circumference, mean arterial pressure, high-density lipoprotein and triglyceride levels, and fasting insulin/glucose ratio) were also combined to determine the accumulation of metabolic effects. Body composition was assessed by electrical bioimpedance.

RESULTS

Offspring of women in the intervention group had a less optimal metabolic profile after the 5-year follow-up compared with offspring in the usual care group (P=0.014). This difference in metabolic health was primarily related to lipid metabolism, and was more prominent among boys (P=0.001) than girls (P=0.74). Neither GDM, gestational weight gain, prepregnancy BMI, offspring age nor timing of randomization (before or during pregnancy) could explain the detected difference, which was also more pronounced among the offspring of GDM pregnancies (P=0.010). Offspring body composition was similar in both groups (P>0.05).

CONCLUSION

The lifestyle intervention aimed at GDM prevention was associated with unfavourable metabolic outcomes among offspring at around 5 years of age.

Exposing the Causal Effect of Body Mass Index on the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Mendelian Randomization Study

Introduction: High body mass index (BMI) is a positive associated phenotype of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Abundant studies have observed this from a clinical perspective. Since the rapid increase in a large number of genetic variants from the genome-wide association studies (GWAS), common SNPs of BMI and T2DM were identified as the genetic basis for understanding their associations. Currently, their causality is beginning to blur. Materials and Methods: To classify it, a Mendelian randomisation (MR), using genetic instrumental variables (IVs) to explore the causality of intermediate phenotype and disease, was utilized here to test the effect of BMI on the risk of T2DM. In this article, MR was carried out on GWAS data using 52 independent BMI SNPs as IVs. The pooled odds ratio (OR) of these SNPs was calculated using inverse-variance weighted method for the assessment of 5 kg/m2 higher BMI on the risk of T2DM. The leave-one-out validation was conducted to identify the effect of individual SNPs. MR-Egger regression was utilized to detect potential pleiotropic bias of variants. Results: We obtained the high OR (1.470; 95% CI 1.170 to 1.847; P = 0.001), low intercept (0.004, P = 0.661), and small fluctuation of ORs {from -0.039 [(1.412 - 1.470) / 1.470)] to 0.075 [(1.568- 1.470) / 1.470)] in leave-one-out validation. Conclusion: We validate the causal effect of high BMI on the risk of T2DM. The low intercept shows no pleiotropic bias of IVs. The small alterations of ORs activated by removing individual SNPs showed no single SNP drives our estimate.

Association of Maternal Prepregnancy Weight with Offspring Adiposity Throughout Adulthood over 37 Years of Follow-up

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to determine the relation of maternal prepregnancy weight with offspring BMI across adulthood from almost 40 years of follow-up.

METHODS

BMI was measured in Framingham Heart Study Offspring cohort participants between 1971 and 2008. The association of maternal prepregnancy weight category (ascertained via direct measure and questionnaire) with serial offspring BMI, overweight, obesity, and change in BMI over time was tested, adjusted for age, sex, and a BMI genetic risk score; secondary models additionally adjusted for physical activity, dietary factors, smoking, education, and familial relatedness.

RESULTS

Among 863 participants at initial assessment (83 exposed and 780 controls), mean (SD) age was 33 (10) years, 53% were female, and mean BMI was 24.5 (4.1) kg/m2 . Exposed offspring BMI was higher at every examination cycle, ranging from 1.5 (0.5) to 3.0 (0.5) kg/m2 (P < 0.001), with larger differences at later assessments. The rate of increase in offspring BMI over time was higher in exposed offspring before the age of 50 years (β [SE] = 0.07 [0.02] kg/m2 per year; P = 0.004) but not after the age of 50 years (-0.05 [0.04] kg/m2 per year; P = 0.2).

CONCLUSIONS

Maternal prepregnancy weight is associated with greater offspring BMI throughout adulthood, with more rapid weight acceleration in early and midadulthood.

Gestational weight gain charts for different body mass index groups for women in Europe, North America, and Oceania

BACKGROUND

Gestational weight gain differs according to pre-pregnancy body mass index and is related to the risks of adverse maternal and child health outcomes. Gestational weight gain charts for women in different pre-pregnancy body mass index groups enable identification of women and offspring at risk for adverse health outcomes. We aimed to construct gestational weight gain reference charts for underweight, normal weight, overweight, and grades 1, 2 and 3 obese women and to compare these charts with those obtained in women with uncomplicated term pregnancies.

METHODS

We used individual participant data from 218,216 pregnant women participating in 33 cohorts from Europe, North America, and Oceania. Of these women, 9065 (4.2%), 148,697 (68.1%), 42,678 (19.6%), 13,084 (6.0%), 3597 (1.6%), and 1095 (0.5%) were underweight, normal weight, overweight, and grades 1, 2, and 3 obese women, respectively. A total of 138, 517 women from 26 cohorts had pregnancies with no hypertensive or diabetic disorders and with term deliveries of appropriate for gestational age at birth infants. Gestational weight gain charts for underweight, normal weight, overweight, and grade 1, 2, and 3 obese women were derived by the Box-Cox t method using the generalized additive model for location, scale, and shape.

RESULTS

We observed that gestational weight gain strongly differed per maternal pre-pregnancy body mass index group. The median (interquartile range) gestational weight gain at 40 weeks was 14.2 kg (11.4-17.4) for underweight women, 14.5 kg (11.5-17.7) for normal weight women, 13.9 kg (10.1-17.9) for overweight women, and 11.2 kg (7.0-15.7), 8.7 kg (4.3-13.4) and 6.3 kg (1.9-11.1) for grades 1, 2, and 3 obese women, respectively. The rate of weight gain was lower in the first half than in the second half of pregnancy. No differences in the patterns of weight gain were observed between cohorts or countries. Similar weight gain patterns were observed in mothers without pregnancy complications.

CONCLUSIONS

Gestational weight gain patterns are strongly related to pre-pregnancy body mass index. The derived charts can be used to assess gestational weight gain in etiological research and as a monitoring tool for weight gain during pregnancy in clinical practice.

Aetiology of eating behaviours: A possible mechanism to understand obesity development in early childhood

Childhood obesity is an issue of public health concern that is understood to emerge due to disequilibrium in energy homeostasis. This commentary explores literature regarding neuro-biological mechanisms of energy homeostasis and the relationship between subjective measures of children's eating behaviours and objective measures of appetite, in order to better understand the aetiology of childhood obesity. Early life influences, such as in utero exposure, breastfeeding, and general disadvantage, appear to have an important influence on neuro-biological mechanisms of appetite and may contribute to inequitable distributions of obesity within the population. Subject measures of eating behaviours appear to capture various aspects of neuro-biologically driven (objective) appetite systems, however, these systems are complex, interdependent and not yet fully understood. Future research focusing attention on early life influences on appetite and eating behaviours is warranted to increase understanding of differences in rates of obesity within the population, to determine opportunities for targeted obesity prevention initiatives, and to explore the potential to measure change in eating behaviours as a marker of appetite and obesity risk.

It's the mother!: How assumptions about the causal primacy of maternal effects influence research on the developmental origins of health and disease

Research on the developmental origins of health and disease (DOHaD) has traditionally focused on how maternal exposures around the time of pregnancy might influence offspring health and risk of disease. We acknowledge that for some exposures this is likely to be correct, but argue that the focus on maternal pregnancy effects also reflects implicit and deeply-held assumptions that 1) causal early life exposures are primarily transmitted via maternal traits or exposures, 2) maternal exposures around the time of pregnancy and early infancy are particularly important, and 3) other factors, such as paternal factors and postnatal exposures in later life, have relatively little impact in comparison. These implicit assumptions about the "causal primacy" of maternal pregnancy effects set the agenda for DOHaD research and, through a looping effect, are reinforced rather than tested. We propose practical strategies to redress this imbalance through maintaining a critical perspective about these assumptions.

Pregnancy loss of control over eating: a longitudinal study of maternal and child outcomes

Background

To our knowledge, no previous studies have investigated longitudinal outcomes of maternal loss of control over eating (LOC) in pregnancy in a general population sample.

Objective

We aimed to determine whether pregnancy LOC is associated with dietary, gestational weight gain, and offspring birth-weight outcomes in a large population-based prospective study of pregnant women and their children. We also explored the association with offspring weight at age 15.5 y.

Design

Women (n = 11,132) from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) were included. Crude and adjusted logistic and multinomial regression models were used. LOC in pregnancy and diet at 32 wk of gestation were assessed by self-report. Pregnancy weight gain and birth weight were obtained from obstetric records. Child weight and height were objectively measured at age 15.5 y.

Results

LOC in pregnancy was common (36.3%). Women with pregnancy LOC reported higher total energy intake, consumed more snacks, and had lower vitamin B-6, A, and C intake compared with women without LOC. Women with frequent LOC had lower vitamin B-1 and folate intake [respectively: b = -0.05 (95% CI: -0.07, -0.02) and b = -7.1 (95% CI: -11.8, -2.3) in adjusted analyses], and gained on average 3.74 kg (95% CI: 3.33, 4.13 kg) more than women without LOC. Frequent and occasional LOC were associated with higher birth weight [respectively: b = 0.07 (95% CI: 0.03, 0.1), b = 0.04 (95% CI: 0.02, 0.06)]. Offspring of mothers with frequent pregnancy LOC had 2-fold increased odds of being overweight/obese at 15.5 y [OR = 2.02 (95% CI: 1.37, 3.01)].

Conclusions

Pregnancy LOC eating is common and has an adverse short- and long-term impact on mother and offspring, but has received very limited attention. Our findings further the understanding of risk factors for obesity and highlight a need for improved identification of maternal pregnancy loss of control eating. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT03269253.

Genetic studies of gestational duration and preterm birth

The fine control of birth timing is important to human survival and evolution. A key challenge in studying the mechanisms underlying the regulation of human birth timing is that human parturition is a unique to human event — animal models provide only limited information. The duration of gestation or the risk of preterm birth is a complex human trait under genetic control from both maternal and fetal genomes. Genomic discoveries through genome-wide association (GWA) studies would implicate relevant genes and pathways. Similar to other complex human traits, gestational duration is likely to be influenced by numerous genetic variants of small effect size. The detection of these small-effect genetic variants requires very large sample sizes. In addition, several practical and analytical challenges, in particular the involvement of both maternal and fetal genomes, further complicate the genetic studies of gestational duration and other pregnancy phenotypes. Despite these challenges, large-scale GWA studies have already identified several genomic loci associated with gestational duration or the risk of preterm birth. These genomic discoveries have revealed novel insights about the biology of human birth timing. Expanding genomic discoveries in larger datasets by more refined analytical approaches, together with the functional analysis of the identified genomic loci, will collectively elucidate the biological processes underlying the control of human birth timing.

Marine Omega-3 Fatty Acids, Complications of Pregnancy and Maternal Risk Factors for Offspring Cardio-Metabolic Disease

Marine omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 PUFA) are important nutrients during periods of rapid growth and development in utero and infancy. Maternal health and risk factors play a crucial role in birth outcomes and subsequently offspring cardio-metabolic health. Evidence from observational studies and randomized trials have suggested a potential association of maternal intake of marine n-3 PUFAs during pregnancy with pregnancy and birth outcomes. However, there is inconsistency in the literature on whether marine n-3 PUFA supplementation during pregnancy can prevent maternal complications of pregnancy. This narrative literature review summarizes recent evidence on observational and clinical trials of marine n-3 PUFA intake on maternal risk factors and effects on offspring cardio-metabolic health. The current evidence generally does not support a role of maternal n-3 PUFA supplementation in altering the incidence of gestational diabetes, pregnancy-induced hypertension, or pre-eclampsia. It may be that benefits from marine n-3 PUFA supplementation are more pronounced in high-risk populations, such as women with a history of complications of pregnancy, or women with low marine n-3 PUFA intake. Discrepancies between studies may be related to differences in study design, dosage, fatty acid interplay, and length of treatment. Further prospective double-blind studies are needed to clarify the impact of long-chain marine n-3 PUFAs on risk factors for cardio-metabolic disease in the offspring.

Influence of maternal and own genotype at tanning dependence-related SNPs on sun exposure in childhood

Background

Research suggests there may be a genetic influence on the likelihood of becoming tanning dependent (TD). The way in which mothers regulate their children’s sun exposure may be affected by being TD. We investigated the associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) related to being TD and early sun exposure.

Methods

Data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) were used. Associations between 17 TD related SNPs in children and their mothers and 10 sun exposure variables in children (assessed via questionnaire at age 8) were analyzed in logistic and ordinal logistic regressions. Analyses were adjusted for principal components of population structure and age (at time of questionnaire response). Models with additional adjustment for maternal or offspring genotypes were also tested. Secondary analyses included adjustment for sex and skin pigmentation.

Results

Among ALSPAC children, the rs29132 SNP in the Vesicle-associated membrane protein-associated protein A (VAPA) gene was associated with five sun exposure variables whilst the rs650662 SNP in the Opioid Receptor Mu 1 (OPRM1) gene was associated with three. The remaining SNPs did not show associations beyond what was expected by chance. After Bonferroni correction one SNP in the children was associated with an increased likelihood of using sun cream whilst in the sun at 8 years old (rs60050811 in the Spermatogenesis and Centriole Associated 1 (SPATC1) gene, OR per C allele = 1.34, 95% CI 1.11–1.62, p = .003). In the mothers, rs650662 in OPRM1 was associated with the use of a lower factor of sun cream in their children, (OR per A allele = 0.89, 95% CI 0.82–0.96, p = .002). Whilst rs2073478 in the Aldehyde Dehydrogenase 1 Family Member B1 (ALDH1B1) gene was associated with a reduced odds of their child using a sun block or cream with a 4 star rating (OR per T allele = 0.68, 95% CI 0.53–0.88, p = .003). Similar but weaker associations were observed for the main findings in the secondary analyses.

Conclusions

We found weak evidence to suggest that genes previously associated with TD are associated with sun exposure in children of European ancestry from southwest England.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12881-018-0575-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Association of maternal exposures with adiposity at age 4/5 years in white British and Pakistani children: findings from the Born in Bradford study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

There is evidence that, from birth, South Asians are fatter, for a given body mass, than Europeans. The role of developmental overnutrition related to maternal adiposity and circulating glucose in these ethnic differences is unclear. Our aim was to compare associations of maternal gestational adiposity and glucose with adiposity at age 4/5 years in white British and Pakistani children.

METHODS

Born in Bradford is a prospective study of children born between 2007 and 2010 in Bradford, UK. Mothers completed an OGTT at 27-28 weeks of gestation. We examined associations between maternal gestational BMI, fasting glucose, post-load glucose and diabetes (GDM) and offspring height, weight, BMI and subscapular skinfold (SSF) and triceps skinfold (TSF) thickness at age 4/5 years, using data from 6060 mother-offspring pairs (2717 [44.8%] white British and 3343 [55.2%] Pakistani).

RESULTS

Pakistani mothers had lower BMI and higher fasting and post-load glucose and were twice as likely to have GDM (defined using modified WHO criteria) than white British women (15.8% vs 6.9%). Pakistani children were taller and had lower BMI than white British children; they had similar SSF and lower TSF. Maternal BMI was positively associated with the adiposity of offspring in both ethnic groups, with some evidence of stronger associations in Pakistani mother-offspring pairs. For example, the difference in adjusted mean BMI per 1 kg/m2 greater maternal BMI was 0.07 kg/m2 (95% CI 0.05, 0.08) and 0.10 kg/m2 (95% CI 0.09. 0.11) in white British and Pakistani children, respectively, with equivalent results for SSF being 0.07 mm (95% CI 0.05, 0.08) and 0.09 mm (95% CI 0.08. 0.11) (p for ethnic difference < 0.03 for both). There was no strong evidence of association of fasting and post-load glucose, or GDM, with outcomes in either group.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

At age 4/5 years, Pakistani children are taller and lighter than white British children. While maternal BMI is positively associated with offspring adiposity, gestational glycaemia is not clearly related to offspring adiposity in either ethnic group.

Confounding by ill health in the observed association between BMI and mortality: evidence from the HUNT Study using offspring BMI as an instrument

Background

The observational association between mortality and body mass index (BMI) is U-shaped, leading to highly publicized suggestions that moderate overweight is beneficial to health. However, it is unclear whether elevated mortality is caused by low BMI or if the association is confounded, for example by concurrent ill health.

Methods

Using HUNT, a Norwegian prospective study, 32 452 mother-offspring and 27 747 father-offspring pairs were followed up to 2009. Conventional hazard ratios for parental mortality per standard deviation of BMI were estimated using Cox regression adjusted for behavioural and socioeconomic factors. To estimate hazard ratios with reduced susceptibility to confounding, particularly from concurrent ill health, the BMI of parents’ offspring was used as an instrumental variable for parents’ own BMI. The shape of mortality-BMI associations was assessed using cubic splines.

Results

There were 18 365 parental deaths during follow-up. Conventional associations of mortality from all-causes, cardiovascular disease and cancer with parents’ own BMI were substantially nonlinear, with elevated mortality at both extremes and minima at 21–25 kg m⁻². Equivalent associations with offspring BMI were positive and there was no evidence of elevated parental mortality at low offspring BMI. The linear instrumental variable hazard ratio for all-cause mortality per standard deviation increase in BMI was 1.18 (95% confidence interval: 1.10, 1.26), compared with 1.05 (1.03, 1.06) in the conventional analysis.

Conclusions

Elevated mortality rates at high BMI appear causal, whereas excess mortality at low BMI is likely exaggerated by confounding by factors including concurrent ill health. Conventional studies probably underestimate the adverse population health consequences of overweight.

Association between gestational diabetes mellitus exposure and childhood adiposity is not substantially explained by offspring genetic risk of obesity

AIM

To examine the extent to which offspring obesity-associated genetic risk explains the association between gestational diabetes mellitus and childhood adiposity.

METHODS

We studied 282 children aged 7-12 years who were enrolled in the Exploring Perinatal Outcomes in Children Study. A genetic risk score for BMI was calculated as the count of 91 established BMI-raising risk alleles. Multivariable linear and logistic regression models were used to estimate associations between the offspring genetic risk score and exposure to gestational diabetes and childhood adiposity (BMI and waist circumference), adjusting for clinical and demographic covariates. The contribution of offspring genetic risk to associations between maternal gestational diabetes and childhood outcomes was estimated by comparing the regression coefficients for the gestational diabetes variable in models with and without the genetic risk score.

RESULTS

The offspring BMI genetic risk score was associated with childhood BMI (P = 0.006) and waist circumference (P = 0.02), and marginally with gestational diabetes (P = 0.05). Offspring BMI genetic risk did not contribute significantly to associations between gestational diabetes and childhood BMI [7.7% (95% CI -3.3, 18.8)] or waist circumference [5.8% (95% CI -3.1, 14.8); P = 0.2 for both].

CONCLUSIONS

Offspring obesity genetic risk does not explain a significant proportion of the association between gestational diabetes exposure and childhood adiposity. The association between gestational diabetes and childhood adiposity is probably explained through alternative pathways, including direct intrauterine effects or a shared postnatal environment.