Estimating HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis need and impact in Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia: A geospatial and risk-based analysis

Subnational HIV incidence trends in Malawi: large, heterogeneous declines across space

The rate of new HIV infections globally has decreased substantially from its peak in the late 1990s, but the epidemic persists and remains highest in many countries in eastern and southern Africa. Previous research hypothesised that, as the epidemic recedes, it will become increasingly concentrated among sub-populations and geographic areas where transmission is the highest and that are least effectively reached by treatment and prevention services. However, empirical data on subnational HIV incidence trends is sparse, and the local transmission rates in the context of effective treatment scale-up are unknown. In this work, we developed a novel Bayesian spatio-temporal epidemic model to estimate adult HIV prevalence, incidence and treatment coverage at the district level in Malawi from 2010 through the end of 2021. We found that HIV incidence decreased in every district of Malawi between 2010 and 2021 but the rate of decline varied by area. National-level treatment coverage more than tripled between 2010 and 2021 and more than doubled in every district. Large increases in treatment coverage were associated with declines in HIV transmission, with 12 districts having incidence-prevalence ratios of 0.03 or less (a previously suggested threshold for epidemic control). Across districts, incidence varied more than HIV prevalence and ART coverage, suggesting that the epidemic is becoming increasingly spatially concentrated. Our results highlight the success of the Malawi HIV treatment programme over the past decade, with large improvements in treatment coverage leading to commensurate declines in incidence. More broadly, we demonstrate the utility of spatially resolved HIV modelling in generalized epidemic settings. By estimating temporal changes in key epidemic indicators at a relatively fine spatial resolution, we were able to directly assess, for the first time, whether the ART scaleup in Malawi resulted in spatial gaps or hotspots. Regular use of this type of analysis will allow HIV program managers to monitor the equity of their treatment and prevention programmes and their subnational progress towards epidemic control.

HIV prevention for the next decade: Appropriate, person-centred, prioritised, effective, combination prevention

UNAIDS and a broad range of partners have collaborated to establish a new set of HIV prevention targets to be achieved by 2025 as an intermediate step towards the sustainable development target for 2030.The number of new HIV infections in the world continues to decline, in part due to the extraordinary expansion of effective HIV treatment. However, the decline is geographically heterogeneous, with some regions reporting a rise in incidence. The incidence target that was agreed for 2020 has been missed.A range of exciting new HIV prevention technologies have become available or are in the pipeline but will only have an impact if they are accessible and affordable and delivered within systems that take full account of the social and political context in which most infections occur. Most new infections occur in populations that are marginalised or discriminated against due to structural, legal, and cultural barriers.The new targets imply a new approach to HIV prevention that emphasises appropriate, person-centred, prioritised, effective, combination HIV prevention within a framework that reduces existing barriers to services and acknowledges heterogeneity, autonomy, and choice.These targets have consequences for people working in HIV programmes both for delivery and for monitoring and evaluation, for health planners setting local and national priorities, and for funders both domestic and global. Most importantly, they have consequences for people who are at risk of HIV exposure and infection.Achieving these targets will have a huge impact on the future of the HIV epidemic and put us back on track towards ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030.

Awareness of and Preferences for Preexposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) among MSM at High Risk of HIV Infection in Southern China: Findings from the T2T Study

This study is aimed at investigating the awareness of and preferences for oral and long-acting injectable HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and their associated factors among men who have sex with men (MSM) at high risk of HIV infection in southern China. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 603 MSM who were recruited through a cohort study called the T2T Study at three sexual health clinics in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Wuxi, China, from 2017 to 2018. We collected information on HIV-negative participants' awareness of and willingness to use PrEP and its potential correlations. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were used for data analyses. A total of 550 HIV-negative MSM were enrolled in the study. Less than half of at-risk MSM (43.1%) had heard of PrEP before, and the rate of overall willingness to use PrEP was 65.8%, while MSM were more willing to use daily oral PrEP than long-acting injectable- (LAI-) PrEP (62.2% vs. 38.5%). MSM who had university degrees or above (aOR = 1.55, 95% CI: 1.01-2.37), used condoms during last anal sex (1.52, 1.01-2.29), and tested 3 times or more for HIV (2.45, 1.10-5.47) were more likely to be aware of PrEP. MSM who had use of gay dating apps (1.51, 1.02-2.23), ever participated in HIV- or sexually transmitted disease (STD-) related studies (1.91, 1.24-2.94), and had heard of PrEP (3.06, 2.06-4.54) were more willing to use any regimen of PrEP. MSM at high risk of HIV infection had low awareness of PrEP and moderate willingness to use PrEP. Further studies of the implementation and promotion of PrEP targeting at-risk MSM should be performed.