Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change

Remote sensing of temperature-dependent mosquito and viral traits predicts field surveillance-based disease risk

Mosquito-borne diseases contribute substantially to the global burden of disease, and are strongly influenced by environmental conditions. Ongoing and rapid environmental change necessitates improved understanding of the response of mosquito-borne diseases to environmental factors like temperature, and novel approaches to mapping and monitoring risk. Recent development of trait-based mechanistic models has improved understanding of the temperature dependence of transmission, but model predictions remain challenging to validate in the field. Using West Nile virus (WNV) as a case study, we illustrate the use of a novel remote sensing-based approach to mapping temperature-dependent mosquito and viral traits at high spatial resolution and across the diurnal cycle. We validate the approach using mosquito and WNV surveillance data controlling for other key factors in the ecology of WNV, finding strong agreement between temperature-dependent traits and field-based metrics of risk. Moreover, we find that WNV infection rate in mosquitos exhibits a unimodal relationship with temperature, peaking at ~24.6-25.2°C, in the middle of the 95% credible interval of optimal temperature for transmission of WNV predicted by trait-based mechanistic models. This study represents one of the highest resolution validations of trait-based model predictions, and illustrates the utility of a novel remote sensing approach to predicting mosquito-borne disease risk.

Data-driven nexus between malaria incidence and World Bank indicators in the Mekong River during 2000-2022

The increase in hydro dams in the Mekong River amidst the prevalence of multidrug-resistant malaria in Cambodia has raised concerns about global public health. Political conflicts during Covid-19 pandemic led cross-border movements of malaria cases from Myanmar and caused health care burden in Thailand. While previous publications used climatic indicators for predicting mosquito-borne diseases, this research used globally recognizable World Bank indicators to find the most impactful indicators related with malaria and shed light on the predictability of mosquito-borne diseases. The World Bank datasets of the World Development Indicators and Climate Change Knowledge Portal contain 1494 time series indicators. They were stepwise screened by Pearson and Distance correlation. The sets of five and four contain respectively 19 and 149 indicators highly correlated with malaria incidence which were found similarly among five and four GMS countries. Living areas, ages, career, income, technology accessibility, infrastructural facilities, unclean fuel use, tobacco smoking, and health care deficiency have affected malaria incidence. Tonle Sap Lake, the largest freshwater lake in Southeast Asia, could contribute to the larval habitat. Seven groups of indicator topics containing 92 indicators with not-null datapoints were analyzed by regression models, including Multiple Linear, Ridge, Lasso, and Elastic Net models to choose 7 crucial features for malaria prediction via Long Short Time Memory network. The indicator of people using at least basic sanitation services and people practicing open defecation were health factors had most impacts on regression models. Malaria incidence could be predicted by one indicator to reach the optimal mean absolute error which was lower than 10 malaria cases (per 1,000 population at risk) in the Long Short Time Memory model. However, public health crises caused by political problems should be analyzed by political indexes for more precise predictions.

Virology-The next fifty years

Virology has made enormous advances in the last 50 years but has never faced such scrutiny as it does today. Herein, we outline some of the major advances made in virology during this period, particularly in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, and suggest some areas that may be of research importance in the next 50 years. We focus on several linked themes: cataloging the genomic and phenotypic diversity of the virosphere; understanding disease emergence; future directions in viral disease therapies, vaccines, and interventions; host-virus interactions; the role of viruses in chronic diseases; and viruses as tools for cell biology. We highlight the challenges that virology will face moving forward-not just the scientific and technical but also the social and political. Although there are inherent limitations in trying to outline the virology of the future, we hope this article will help inspire the next generation of virologists.

Impact of storm drains on the maintenance of dengue endemicity in Presidente Prudente, São Paulo, Brazil: a geospatial and epidemiologic approach

Introduction

Dengue is a public health challenge worldwide. Brazil registered about 70% of cases in Latin America in 2023; in 2024, the country is experiencing an unprecedented increase in the number of infected individuals. By May 2024, more than 4 million people were infected. Our goal was to: (1) determine the epidemiology of dengue cases and their spatiotemporal distribution and (2) carry out a survey of the storm drains and through a geospatial analysis to determine their possible correlation with cases of dengue in Presidente Prudente, São Paulo, Brazil.

Methods

Cases and information on the habitat of mosquito in the storm drain underground drainage system from 2020 to 2021 were obtained from public agencies. Larvae, pupae, and Ae. aegypti were identified according to species and described in taxonomic keys. Kernel density maps were constructed.

Results

From 1996 to 2023, the prevalence of cases peaked in 2016 and 2019, and in 2023 reached alarming levels, and the city was considered hyperendemic. In 2021, 2,609 cases were registered with 2 clusters of high density. Of 5,492 storm drains analyzed, 18.0% were found to have water, 9.0% had larvae or pupae of Aedes aegypti and 91.0% were classified as dirty or damaged. A direct correlation between the kernel layer of cases in 2021 with the kernel layer of storm drains containing water (r = 0.651) and larvae and pupae (r = 0.576) was found, suggesting that storm drains are risk factors and have an impact on the maintenance of dengue endemicity. The high number of damaged units found demonstrated the lack of storm drain management, compromising the urban drainage system and possibly contributing to dengue outbreaks.

Conclusion

Policymakers may use these findings to improve existing dengue control strategies focusing on the control of storm drains and increase local and global perspectives on reducing dengue outbreaks.

Evolutionary adaptation under climate change: Aedes sp. demonstrates potential to adapt to warming

Climate warming is expected to shift the distributions of mosquitoes and mosquito-borne diseases, facilitating expansions at cool range edges and contractions at warm range edges. However, whether mosquito populations could maintain their warm edges through evolutionary adaptation remains unknown. Here, we investigate the potential for thermal adaptation in Aedes sierrensis, a congener of the major disease vector species that experiences large thermal gradients in its native range, by assaying tolerance to prolonged and acute heat exposure, and its genetic basis in a diverse, field-derived population. We found pervasive evidence of heritable genetic variation in acute heat tolerance, which phenotypically trades off with tolerance to prolonged heat exposure. A simple evolutionary model based on our data shows that the estimated maximum rate of evolutionary adaptation in mosquito heat tolerance typically exceeds that of projected climate warming under idealized conditions. Our findings indicate that natural mosquito populations may have the potential to track projected warming via genetic adaptation. Prior climate-based projections may thus underestimate the range of mosquito and mosquito-borne disease distributions under future climate conditions.

Climate change impacts on dengue transmission areas in Espírito Santo state, Brazil

Espírito Santo state, in Brazil, is a dengue-endemic region predicted to suffer from an increase in temperature and drought due to climate change, which could affect the areas with active dengue virus transmission. The study objective was modeling climatic factors and climate change effects in zones suitable for dengue virus transmission in Espírito Santo state, Brazil. Data on dengue reports from 2022 were used to determine climatic variables related to spatial distribution. The climate change projections were generated for the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s for three distinct Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. A maximum entropy algorithm was used to construct the three models and projections, and the results were used to calculate the ensemble mean. Isothermality, the maximum temperature of the warmest month, precipitation of the wettest month, precipitation of the warmest quarter, and annual precipitation impacted the model. Projections indicated a change in areas suitable for dengue virus transmission, varying from -30.44% in the 2070s (SSP1-2.6) to +13.07% in the 2070s (SSP5-8.5) compared to 2022. The coastal regions were consistently suitable in all scenarios. Urbanized and highly populated areas were predicted to persist with active dengue transmission in Espírito Santo state, posing challenges for public health response.

A new lineage nomenclature to aid genomic surveillance of dengue virus

Dengue virus (DENV) is currently causing epidemics of unprecedented scope in endemic settings and expanding to new geographical areas. It is therefore critical to track this virus using genomic surveillance. However, the complex patterns of viral genomic diversity make it challenging to use the existing genotype classification system. Here, we propose adding 2 sub-genotypic levels of virus classification, named major and minor lineages. These lineages have high thresholds for phylogenetic distance and clade size, rendering them stable between phylogenetic studies. We present assignment tools to show that the proposed lineages are useful for regional, national, and subnational discussions of relevant DENV diversity. Moreover, the proposed lineages are robust to classification using partial genome sequences. We provide a standardized neutral descriptor of DENV diversity with which we can identify and track lineages of potential epidemiological and/or clinical importance. Information about our lineage system, including methods to assign lineages to sequence data and propose new lineages, can be found at: dengue-lineages.org.

Larval crowding enhances dengue virus loads in Aedes aegypti, a relationship that might increase transmission in urban environments

BACKGROUND

Climate change and urbanization will alter the global distribution of disease vectors, changing the disease burden in yet unpredictable ways. Aedes aegypti is a mosquito responsible for transmitting dengue, Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever viruses that breeds in containers associated with urban environments. We sought to understand how ambient temperature and larval densities in the immature aquatic phases determine adult life history traits and dengue virus loads post-infection. We predicted that larval crowding and high temperatures would both lead to smaller mosquitoes that might struggle to invest in an immune response and, hence, would exhibit high viral loads.

METHODS

We first examined larval densities from urban and rural areas via a meta-analysis. We then used these data to inform a laboratory-based 2x2 design examining the interacting effects of temperature (21 vs. 26°C) and density (0.2 vs. 0.4 larvae/mL) on adult life history and dengue virus loads.

RESULTS

We found that urban areas had an ~8-fold increase in larval densities compared to more rural sites. In the lab, we found that crowding had more impact on mosquito traits than temperature. Crowding led to slower development, smaller mosquitoes, less survival, lower fecundity, and higher viral loads, as predicted. The higher temperature led to faster development, reduced fecundity, and lower viral loads. The virus-reducing effect of higher temperature rearing was, however, overwhelmed by the impact of larval crowding when both factors were present.

CONCLUSIONS

These data reveal complex interactions between the environmental effects experienced by immature mosquitoes and adult traits. They especially highlight the importance of crowding with respect to adult viral loads. Together, these data suggest that urban environments might enhance dengue virus loads and, therefore, possibly transmission, a concerning result given the increasing rates of urbanization globally.

Activation of ATF3 via the integrated stress response pathway regulates innate immune response to restrict Zika virus

Zika virus (ZIKV) is a re-emerging mosquito-borne flavivirus that can have devastating health consequences. The developmental and neurological effects of a ZIKV infection arise in part from the virus triggering cellular stress pathways and perturbing transcriptional programs. To date, the underlying mechanisms of transcriptional control directing viral restriction and virus-host interaction are understudied. Activating Transcription Factor 3 (ATF3) is a stress-induced transcriptional effector that modulates the expression of genes involved in a myriad of cellular processes, including inflammation and antiviral responses, to restore cellular homeostasis. While ATF3 is known to be upregulated during ZIKV infection, the mode by which ATF3 is activated, and the specific role of ATF3 during ZIKV infection is unknown. In this study, we show via inhibitor and RNA interference approaches that ZIKV infection initiates the integrated stress response pathway to activate ATF4 which in turn induces ATF3 expression. Additionally, by using CRISPR-Cas9 system to delete ATF3, we found that ATF3 acts to limit ZIKV gene expression in A549 cells. We also determined that ATF3 enhances the expression of antiviral genes such as STAT1 and other components in the innate immunity pathway to induce an ATF3-dependent anti-ZIKV response. Our study reveals crosstalk between the integrated stress response and innate immune response pathways and highlights an important role for ATF3 in establishing an antiviral effect during ZIKV infection.

IMPORTANCE

Zika virus (ZIKV) is a re-emerging mosquito-borne flavivirus that co-opts cellular mechanisms to support viral processes that can reprogram the host transcriptional profile. Such viral-directed transcriptional changes and the pro- or anti-viral outcomes remain understudied. We previously showed that ATF3, a stress-induced transcription factor, is significantly upregulated in ZIKV-infected mammalian cells, along with other cellular and immune response genes. We now define the intracellular pathway responsible for ATF3 activation and elucidate the impact of ATF3 expression on ZIKV infection. We show that during ZIKV infection, the integrated stress response pathway stimulates ATF3 which enhances the innate immune response to antagonize ZIKV infection. This study establishes a link between viral-induced stress response and transcriptional regulation of host defense pathways and thus expands our knowledge of virus-mediated transcriptional mechanisms and transcriptional control of interferon-stimulated genes during ZIKV infection.

Low humidity enhances Zika virus infection and dissemination in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes

As climate change alters Earth's biomes, it is expected the transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne viruses will change. While the effects of temperature changes on mosquito-virus interactions and the spread of the pathogens have been elucidated over the last decade, the impact of relative humidity changes is still relatively unknown. To overcome this knowledge gap, we exposed Aedes aegypti females to various humidity conditions. We measured different components of vectorial capacity such as survival, blood-feeding rates, and changes in infection and dissemination of Zika virus. Survival decreased as the humidity level decreased, while infection rates increased as the humidity level decreased. Alternatively, blood feeding rates and disseminated infection rates peaked at the intermediate 50% relative humidity treatment but were the same in the 30% and 80% relative humidity treatments. These results provide empirical evidence that Ae. aegypti exposure to low humidity can enhance Zika virus infection in the mosquito, which has important implications in predicting how climate change will impact mosquito-borne viruses.IMPORTANCEViruses transmitted by mosquitoes to humans are a major public health burden and are expected to increase under climate change. While we know that temperature is an important driver of variation in arbovirus replication in the mosquito, very little is known about how other relevant climate variables such as humidity will influence the interaction between mosquitoes and the viruses they transmit. Given the variability in humidity across environments, and the predicted changes in humidity under climate change, it is imperative that we also study the impact that it has on mosquito infection and transmission of arboviruses.

Mapping environmental suitability changes for arbovirus mosquitoes in Southeast Asia: 1960-2020

Spatial epidemiology recognizes the impact of environmental factors on human infectious diseases through disease vectors. The expansion of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus raises concerns about health risks due to their changing distribution. However, current mosquito mapping methods have low spatial resolution and limited focus on long-term trends and factors. This study develops a high-resolution framework (500 m) to map mosquito distribution in Southeast Asia from 1960 to 2020. It includes a species distribution model, a spatial autocorrelation model, and a geographical detector model. The study produces Southeast Asia's first 500 m resolution map of mosquito suitability, revealing significant increases in mosquito suitability in most cities over the past 60 years. The analysis indicates a shift in high-suitability areas from coastal to inland regions, with nighttime land surface temperature playing a key role. These findings are crucial for regional risk assessments and mitigation strategies related to vector-borne diseases.

Safety and immunogenicity of a next-generation live-attenuated yellow fever vaccine produced in a Vero cell line in the USA: a phase 1 randomised, observer-blind, active-controlled, dose-ranging clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Recent outbreaks between 2015-17 and production delays have led to a yellow fever vaccine shortage. Therefore, there is an urgent need for new yellow fever vaccines with improved production scalability. A next-generation live-attenuated yellow fever vaccine candidate (vYF), produced in a Vero cell line has shown similar immunogenicity to licensed yellow fever vaccines in preclinical studies. In this study, we aimed to report the safety and immunogenicity of vYF in human clinical trial participants.

METHODS

In this first in-human, phase 1 randomised, observer-blind, active-controlled, dose-ranging clinical trial conducted at a single centre in the USA (Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, MD, USA), 72 healthy adults (aged 18-60 years), without a known history of flavivirus infection or vaccination were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1) using interactive response technology to receive one dose of either vYF at 4, 5 or 6 Log CCID50 or the licensed YF-VAX (18 individuals per group). The primary outcomes were safety, neutralising antibody (NAb) titres through D180 post-vaccination in the per-protocol analysis set (comprised of yellow fever-naive participants who received their intended vaccine and provided a valid post-vaccination blood sample), and occurrence, and level of yellow fever viraemia in each vaccine group through D14 post-vaccination.

FINDINGS

All vYF doses had a safety and tolerability profile similar to YF-VAX. The most frequently reported solicited injection site reactions (vYF groups vs YF-VAX group) were pain (22% [12 of 54 participants, 95% CI 12-36] vs 28% [five of 18 participants, 10-54]), and erythema (13% [seven of 54 participants, 5-25] vs 39% [seven of 18 participants, 17-64]), with headache (32% [17 of 54 participants, 20-46] vs 44% [eight of 18 participants, 22-69]) and malaise (26% [14 of 54 participants, 15-40] vs 33% [six of 18 participants, 13-59]) as the most frequently reported solicited systemic reactions. One grade 3 solicited reaction (erythema) reported in the YF-VAX group resolved spontaneously. No serious unsolicited adverse events or deaths were reported. Viraemia was transiently detected in 50 participants between D4 and D10 in all groups and was observed in more participants or for a longer time in the vYF 6 Log CCID50 and YF-VAX groups. All yellow fever-naive vaccine recipients across the study groups seroconverted yielding four-fold increase from baseline in yellow fever NAb titres measured by yellow fever microneutralisation assay by D28 and were seroprotected with yellow fever NAb titres of at least 10 [1/dil]). Overall, 100% (18 of 18 participants, 95% CI 82-100), 89% (16 participants, 65-99), 100% (18 participants, 82-100), and 94% (17 participants, 73-100) of participants in the vYF 4 Log, vYF 5 Log, vYF 6 Log CCID50 groups, and YF-VAX group, respectively, remained seroprotected through D180.

INTERPRETATION

vYF has a similar safety and immunogenicity profile to YF-VAX. In general, the vYF 5 Log CCID50 dose appeared to show optimal viraemia, safety, and immunogenicity, and was chosen for subsequent development.

FUNDING

Sanofi.

Aedes aegypti Mosquito Probing Enhances Dengue Virus Infection of Resident Myeloid Cells in Human Skin

The most prevalent arthropod-borne viruses, including the dengue viruses, are primarily transmitted by infected mosquitoes. However, the dynamics of dengue virus (DENV) infection and dissemination in human skin following Aedes aegypti probing remain poorly understood. We exposed human skin explants to adult female Ae. aegypti mosquitoes following their infection with DENV-2 by intrathoracic injection. Skin explants inoculated with a similar quantity of DENV-2 by a bifurcated needle were used as controls. Quantitative in situ imaging revealed that DENV replication was greatest in keratinocytes in the base of the epidermis, accounting for 50-60% of all infected cells regardless of the route of inoculation. However, DENV inoculation by Ae. aegypti probing resulted in an earlier and increased viral replication in the dermis, infecting twice as many cells at 24 h when compared to needle inoculation. Within the dermis, enhanced replication of DENV by Ae. aegypti infected mosquitoes was mediated by increased local recruitment of skin-resident macrophages, dermal dendritic cells, and epidermal Langerhans cells relative to needle inoculation. An enhanced but less pronounced influx of resident myeloid cells to the site of mosquito probing was also observed in the absence of infection. Ae. aegypti probing also increased recruitment and infection of dermal mast cells. Our findings reveal for the first time that keratinocytes are the primary targets of DENV infection following Ae. aegypti inoculation, even though most of the virus is inoculated into the dermis during probing. The data also show that mosquito probing promotes the local recruitment and infection of skin-resident myeloid cells in the absence of an intact vasculature, indicating that influx of blood-derived neutrophils is not an essential requirement for DENV spread within and out of skin.

Effects of climate change and human activities on vector-borne diseases

Vector-borne diseases are transmitted by haematophagous arthropods (for example, mosquitoes, ticks and sandflies) to humans and wild and domestic animals, with the largest burden on global public health disproportionately affecting people in tropical and subtropical areas. Because vectors are ectothermic, climate and weather alterations (for example, temperature, rainfall and humidity) can affect their reproduction, survival, geographic distribution and, consequently, ability to transmit pathogens. However, the effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases can be multifaceted and complex, sometimes with ambiguous consequences. In this Review, we discuss the potential effects of climate change, weather and other anthropogenic factors, including land use, human mobility and behaviour, as possible contributors to the redistribution of vectors and spread of vector-borne diseases worldwide.

Increasing intensity of enterovirus outbreaks projected with climate change

Pathogens of the enterovirus genus, including poliovirus and coxsackieviruses, typically circulate in the summer months suggesting a possible positive association between warmer weather and transmission. Here we evaluate the environmental and demographic drivers of enterovirus transmission, as well as the implications of climate change for future enterovirus circulation. We leverage pre-vaccination era data on polio in the US as well as data on two enterovirus A serotypes in China and Japan that are known to cause hand, foot, and mouth disease. Using mechanistic modeling and statistical approaches, we find that enterovirus transmission appears positively correlated with temperature although demographic factors, particularly the timing of school semesters, remain important. We use temperature projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to simulate future outbreaks under late 21st-century climate change for Chinese provinces. We find that outbreak size increases with climate change on average, though results differ across climate models depending on the degree of wintertime warming. In the worst-case scenario, we project peak outbreaks in some locations could increase by up to 40%.

Larval Competition between Aedes and Culex Mosquitoes Carries over to Higher Arboviral Infection during Their Adult Stage

The common house mosquito (Culex pipiens) is a native vector for West Nile virus (WNV). Invasive species like the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) and Asian bush mosquito (Aedes japonicus) are rapidly spreading through Europe, posing a major threat as vectors for dengue, chikungunya (CHIKV), and Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV). These mosquitoes share a similar ecological niche as larvae, but the carry-over effects of aquatic larval interactions to the terrestrial adult stage remain largely unknown and their medical relevance requires further investigation. This study examines the context dependency of larval interactions among Aedes albopictus, Aedes japonicus, and Culex pipiens. The survival, development time, growth, and energetic storage were measured in different European populations within density-response (intraspecific) experiments and replacement (interspecific) experiments at 20 °C and 26 °C. Overall, Ae. japonicus was the weakest competitor, while competition between Ae. albopictus and Cx. pipiens varied with temperature. Adults emerging from this larval competition were infected as follows: Culex pipiens with WNV, Ae. albopictus with CHIKV, and Ae. japonicus with JEV. While no JEV infection was observed, mosquitoes experiencing interspecific interactions during their larval stages exhibited higher infection rates and viral RNA titers for CHIKV and WNV. This increased susceptibility to viral infection after larval competition suggests a higher risk of arbovirus transmission in co-occurring populations.

Transcriptomic Signatures of Zika Virus Infection in Patients and a Cell Culture Model

Zika virus (ZIKV), a re-emerging flavivirus, is associated with devasting developmental and neurological disease outcomes particularly in infants infected in utero. Towards understanding the molecular underpinnings of the unique ZIKV disease pathologies, numerous transcriptome-wide studies have been undertaken. Notably, these studies have overlooked the assimilation of RNA-seq analysis from ZIKV-infected patients with cell culture model systems. In this study we find that ZIKV-infection of human lung adenocarcinoma A549 cells, mirrored both the transcriptional and alternative splicing profiles from previously published RNA-seq data of peripheral blood mononuclear cells collected from pediatric patients during early acute, late acute, and convalescent phases of ZIKV infection. Our analyses show that ZIKV infection in cultured cells correlates with transcriptional changes in patients, while the overlap in alternative splicing profiles was not as extensive. Overall, our data indicate that cell culture model systems support dissection of select molecular changes detected in patients and establishes the groundwork for future studies elucidating the biological implications of alternative splicing during ZIKV infection.

Super epitope dengue vaccine instigated serotype independent immune protection in-silico

Dengue becomes the most common life-threatening infectious arbovirus disease globally, with prevalence in the tropical and subtropical areas. The major clinical features include dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) and dengue shock syndrome (DSS), a condition of hypovolemic shock. Four different serotypes of the dengue virus, known as dengue virus serotype (DENV)- 1, 2, 3 and 4 can infect humans. Only one vaccine is available in the market, named Dengvaxia by Sanofi Pasteur, but there is no desired outcome of this treatment due the antibody dependent enhancement (ADE) of the multiple dengue serotypes. As of now, there is no cure against dengue disease. Our goal in this work was to create a subunit vaccine based on several epitopes that would be effective against every serotype of the dengue virus. Here, computational methods like- immunoinformatics and bioinformatics were implemented to find out possible dominant epitopes. A total of 21 epitopes were chosen using various in-silico techniques from the expected 133 major histocompatibility complex (MHC)- I and major histocompatibility complex (MHC)- II epitopes, along with 95 B-cell epitopes which were greatly conserved. Immune stimulant, non-allergenic and non-toxic immunodominant epitopes (super epitopes) with a suitable adjuvant (Heparin-Binding Hemagglutinin Adhesin, HBHA) were used to construct the vaccine. Following the physicochemical analysis, vaccine construct was docked with Toll-like receptors (TLRs) to predict the immune stimulation. Consequently, the optimal docked complex that demonstrated the least amount of ligand-receptor complex deformability was used to conduct the molecular dynamics analysis. By following the codon optimization, the final vaccine molecule was administered into an expressing vector to perform in-silico cloning. The robust immune responses were generated in the in-silico immune simulation analysis. Hence, this study provides a hope to control the dengue infections. For validation of the immune outcomes, in-vitro as well as in-vivo investigations are essential.

The rising global economic costs of invasive Aedes mosquitoes and Aedes-borne diseases

Invasive Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes transmit viruses such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika, posing a huge public health burden as well as having a less well understood economic impact. We present a comprehensive, global-scale synthesis of studies reporting these economic costs, spanning 166 countries and territories over 45 years. The minimum cumulative reported cost estimate expressed in 2022 US$ was 94.7 billion, although this figure reflects considerable underreporting and underestimation. The analysis suggests a 14-fold increase in costs, with an average annual expenditure of US$ 3.1 billion, and a maximum of US$ 20.3 billion in 2013. Damage and losses were an order of magnitude higher than investment in management, with only a modest portion allocated to prevention. Effective control measures are urgently needed to safeguard global health and well-being, and to reduce the economic burden on human societies. This study fills a critical gap by addressing the increasing economic costs of Aedes and Aedes-borne diseases and offers insights to inform evidence-based policy.

Potential climate change effects on the distribution of urban and sylvatic dengue and yellow fever vectors

Climate change may increase the risk of dengue and yellow fever transmission by urban and sylvatic mosquito vectors. Previous research primarily focused on Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. However, dengue and yellow fever have a complex transmission cycle involving sylvatic vectors. Our aim was to analyze how the distribution of areas favorable to both urban and sylvatic vectors could be modified as a consequence of climate change. We projected, to future scenarios, baseline distribution models already published for these vectors based on the favorability function, and mapped the areas where mosquitoes' favorability could increase, decrease or remain stable in the near (2041-2060) and distant (2061-2080) future. Favorable areas for the presence of dengue and yellow fever vectors show little differences in the future compared to the baseline models, with changes being perceptible only at regional scales. The model projections predict dengue vectors expanding in West and Central Africa and in South-East Asia, reaching Borneo. Yellow fever vectors could spread in West and Central Africa and in the Amazon. In some locations of Europe, the models suggest a reestablishment of Ae. aegypti, while Ae. albopictus will continue to find new favorable areas. The results underline the need to focus more on vectors Ae. vittatus, Ae. luteocephalus and Ae. africanus in West and Central sub-Saharan Africa, especially Cameroon, Central Africa Republic, and northern Democratic Republic of Congo; and underscore the importance of enhancing entomological monitoring in areas where populations of often overlooked vectors may thrive as a result of climate changes.

Mesocosm Studies Suggest Climate Change May Release Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Larvae from Cold Inhibition and Enable Year-Round Development in a Desert City

AbstractGlobal warming trends, human-assisted transport, and urbanization have allowed poleward expansion of many tropical vector species, but the specific mechanisms responsible for thermal mediation of range changes and ecological success of invaders remain poorly understood. Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) is a tropical mosquito currently expanding into many higher-latitude regions, including the urban desert region of Maricopa County, Arizona. Here, adult populations virtually disappear in winter and spring and then increase exponentially through summer and fall, indicating that winter conditions remain a barrier to the development of some life stages of A. aegypti. To determine whether cold limits the winter development of A. aegypti larvae in Maricopa County, we surveyed for larval abundance and tested their capacity to develop in ambient and warmed conditions. Aedes aegypti larvae were not observed in artificial aquatic habitats in winter and spring but were abundant in summer and fall, suggesting winter suppression of adults, larvae, or both. Water temperatures in winter months fluctuated strongly; larvae were usually cold paralyzed at night but active during the day. Despite daytime temperatures that allowed activity and achieving similar degree-days as warmed mesocosms, larvae reared under ambient winter conditions were unable to develop to adulthood, perhaps due to repetitive cold damage. However, warming average temperature by 1.7°C allowed many larvae to successfully develop to adults. Because daytime highs in winter will often allow adult flight, it is likely that relatively minor additional winter warming may allow A. aegypti populations to develop and reproduce year-round in Maricopa County.

Current and future burden of Ross River virus infection attributable to increasing temperature in Australia: a population-based study

Background

Ross River virus (RRV), Australia's most notifiable vector-borne disease transmitted through mosquito bites, has seen increased transmission due to rising temperatures. Quantifying the burden of RRV infection attributable to increasing temperatures (both current and future) is pivotal to inform prevention strategies in the context of climate change.

Methods

As RRV-related deaths are rare in Australia, we utilised years lived with disability (YLDs) associated with RRV infection data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) Burden of Disease database between 2003 and 2018. We obtained relative risks per 1 °C temperature increase in RRV infection from a previous meta-analysis. Exposure distributions for each Köppen-Geiger climate zone were calculated separately and compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure distribution to calculate RRV burden attributable to increasing temperatures during the baseline period (2003-2018), and projected future burdens for the 2030s and 2050s under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), two adaptation scenarios, and different population growth series.

Findings

During the baseline period (2003-2018), increasing mean temperatures contributed to 35.8 (±0.5) YLDs (19.1%) of the observed RRV burden in Australia. The mean temperature attributable RRV burden varied across climate zones and jurisdictions. Under both RCP scenarios, the projected RRV burden is estimated to increase in the future despite adaptation scenarios. By the 2050s, without adaptation, the RRV burden could reach 45.8 YLDs under RCP4.5 and 51.1 YLDs under RCP8.5. Implementing a 10% adaptation strategy could reduce RRV burden to 41.8 and 46.4 YLDs, respectively.

Interpretation

These findings provide scientific evidence for informing policy decisions and guiding resource allocation for mitigating the future RRV burden. The current findings underscore the need to develop location-specific adaptation strategies for climate-sensitive disease control and prevention.

Funding

Australian Research Council Discovery Program.

Current and lagged associations of meteorological variables and Aedes mosquito indices with dengue incidence in the Philippines

BACKGROUND

Dengue is an increasing health burden that has spread throughout the tropics and sub-tropics. There is currently no effective vaccine and control is only possible through integrated vector management. Early warning systems (EWS) to alert potential dengue outbreaks are currently being explored but despite showing promise are yet to come to fruition. This study addresses the association of meteorological variables with both mosquito indices and dengue incidences and assesses the added value of additionally using mosquito indices for predicting dengue incidences.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Entomological surveys were carried out monthly for 14 months in six sites spread across three environmentally different cities of the Philippines. Meteorological and dengue data were acquired. Non-linear generalized additive models were fitted to test associations of the meteorological variables with both mosquito indices and dengue cases. Rain and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) contributed most to explaining the variation in both mosquito indices and number of dengue cases. DTR and minimum temperature also explained variation in dengue cases occurring one and two months later and may offer potentially useful variables for an EWS. The number of adult mosquitoes did associate with the number of dengue cases, but contributed no additional value to meteorological variables for explaining variation in dengue cases.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The use of meteorological variables to predict future risk of dengue holds promise. The lack of added value of using mosquito indices confirms several previous studies and given the onerous nature of obtaining such information, more effort should be placed on improving meteorological information at a finer scale to evaluate efficacy in early warning of dengue outbreaks.

Climate change and health in the Sahel: a systematic review

The Sahel region is projected to be highly impacted by the more frequent hazards associated with climate change, including increased temperature, drought and flooding. This systematic review examined the evidence for climate change-related health consequences in the Sahel. The databases used were Medline (PubMed), Embase (Ovid), Web of Science (Clarivate) and CABI Global Health. Hand searches were also conducted, which included directly engaging Sahelian researchers and hand-searching in the African Journals Online database. Of the 4153 studies found, 893 were identified as duplicates and the remaining 3260 studies were screened (title and abstract only) and then assessed for eligibility. A total of 81 studies were included in the systematic review. Most studies focused on vector-borne diseases, food security, nutrition and heat-related stress. Findings suggest that mosquito distribution will shift under different climate scenarios, but this relationship will not be linear with temperature, as there are other variables to consider. Food insecurity, stunting (chronic malnutrition) and heat-related mortality are likely to increase if no action is taken owing to the projected impact of climate change on environmental factors and agriculture. Seventy-one per cent of manuscripts (n = 58) had first authors from institutions in North America or Europe, of which 39.7% (n = 23) included co-authors from African institutions.

Next-generation neuropeptide Y receptor small-molecule agonists inhibit mosquito-biting behavior

BACKGROUND

Female Aedes aegypti mosquitoes can spread disease-causing pathogens when they bite humans to obtain blood nutrients required for egg production. Following a complete blood meal, host-seeking is suppressed until eggs are laid. Neuropeptide Y-like receptor 7 (NPYLR7) plays a role in endogenous host-seeking suppression and previous work identified small-molecule NPYLR7 agonists that inhibit host-seeking and blood-feeding when fed to mosquitoes at high micromolar doses.

METHODS

Using structure-activity relationship analysis and structure-guided design we synthesized 128 compounds with similarity to known NPYLR7 agonists.

RESULTS

Although in vitro potency (EC50) was not strictly predictive of in vivo effect, we identified three compounds that reduced blood-feeding from a live host when fed to mosquitoes at a dose of 1 μM-a 100-fold improvement over the original reference compound.

CONCLUSIONS

Exogenous activation of NPYLR7 represents an innovative vector control strategy to block mosquito biting behavior and prevent mosquito-human host interactions that lead to pathogen transmission.

Spatial examination of social and environmental drivers of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) across Kenya

Climate and agricultural land-use change has increased the likelihood of infectious disease emergence and transmissions, but these drivers are often examined separately as combined effects are ignored. Further, seldom are the influence of climate and agricultural land use on emerging infectious diseases examined in a spatially explicit way at regional scales. Our objective in this study was to spatially examine the climate, agriculture, and socio-demographic factors related to agro-pastoralism, and especially the combined effects of these variables that can influence the prevalence of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in dromedary camels across northern Kenya. Our research questions focused on: (1) How MERS-CoV in dromedary camels has varied across geographic regions of northern Kenya, and (2) what climate, agriculture, and socio-demographic factors of agro-pastoralism were spatially related to the geographic variation of MERS-CoV cases in dromedary camels. To answer our questions, we analyzed the spatial distribution of historical cases based on serological evidence of MERS-CoV at the county level and applied spatial statistical analysis to examine the spatial relationships of the MERS-CoV cases between 2016 and 2018 to climate, agriculture, and socio-demographic factors of agro-pastoralism. Regional differences in MERS-CoV cases were spatially correlated with both social and environmental factors, and particularly ethno-religious camel practices, which highlight the complexity in the distribution of MERS-CoV in dromedary camels across Kenya.

Population-specific thermal responses contribute to regional variability in arbovirus transmission with changing climates

Temperature is increasing globally, and vector-borne diseases are particularly responsive to such increases. While it is known that temperature influences mosquito life history traits, transmission models have not historically considered population-specific effects of temperature. We assessed the interaction between Culex pipiens population and temperature in New York State (NYS) and utilized novel empirical data to inform predictive models of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission. Genetically and regionally distinct populations from NYS were reared at various temperatures, and life history traits were monitored and used to inform trait-based models. Variation in Cx. pipiens life history traits and population-dependent thermal responses account for a predicted 2.9°C difference in peak transmission that is reflected in regional differences in WNV prevalence. We additionally identified genetic signatures that may contribute to distinct thermal responses. Together, these data demonstrate how population variation contributes to significant geographic variability in arbovirus transmission with changing climates.

Exploring Iguape Virus-A Lesser-Known Orthoflavivirus

Brazil has earned the moniker "arbovirus hotspot", providing an ideal breeding ground for a multitude of arboviruses thriving in various zoonotic and urban cycles. As the planet warms and vectors expand their habitat range, a nuanced understanding of lesser-known arboviruses and the factors that could drive their emergence becomes imperative. Among these viruses is the Iguape virus (IGUV), a member of the Orthoflavivirus aroaense species, which was first isolated in 1979 from a sentinel mouse in the municipality of Iguape, within the Vale do Ribeira region of São Paulo State. While evidence suggests that IGUV circulates among birds, wild rodents, marsupials, bats, and domestic birds, there is no information available on its pathogenesis in both humans and animals. The existing literature on IGUV spans decades, is outdated, and is often challenging to access. In this review, we have curated information from the known literature, clarifying its elusive nature and investigating the factors that may influence its emergence. As an orthoflavivirus, IGUV poses a potential threat, which demands our attention and vigilance, considering the serious outbreaks that the Zika virus, another neglected orthoflavivirus, has unleashed in the recent past.

The microbiota of Amblyomma americanum reflects known westward expansion

Amblyomma americanum, a known vector of multiple tick-borne pathogens, has expanded its geographic distribution across the United States in the past decades. Tick microbiomes may play a role shaping their host's life history and vectorial capacity. Bacterial communities associated with A. americanum may reflect, or enable, geographic expansion and studying the microbiota will improve understanding of tick-borne disease ecology. We examined the microbiota structure of 189 adult ticks collected in four regions encompassing their historical and current geographic distribution. Both geographic region of origin and sex were significant predictors of alpha diversity. As in other tick models, within-sample diversity was low and uneven given the presence of dominant endosymbionts. Beta diversity analyses revealed that bacterial profiles of ticks of both sexes collected in the West were significantly different from those of the Historic range. Biomarkers were identified for all regions except the historical range. In addition, Bray-Curtis dissimilarities overall increased with distance between sites. Relative quantification of ecological processes showed that, for females and males, respectively, drift and dispersal limitation were the primary drivers of community assembly. Collectively, our findings highlight how microbiota structural variance discriminates the western-expanded populations of A. americanum ticks from the Historical range. Spatial autocorrelation, and particularly the detection of non-selective ecological processes, are indicative of geographic isolation. We also found that prevalence of Ehrlichia chaffeensis, E. ewingii, and Anaplasma phagocytophilum ranged from 3.40-5.11% and did not significantly differ by region. Rickettsia rickettsii was absent from our samples. Our conclusions demonstrate the value of synergistic analysis of biogeographic and microbial ecology data in investigating range expansion in A. americanum and potentially other tick vectors as well.

Landscape and meteorological variables associated with Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquito infestation in two southeastern USA coastal cities

Aedes transmitted arboviral human cases are increasing worldwide and spreading to new areas of the United States of America (USA). These diseases continue to re-emerge likely due to changes in vector ecology, urbanization, human migration, and larger range of climatic suitability. Recent shifts in landscape and weather variables are predicted to impact the habitat patterns of urban mosquitoes such as Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Miami (FL) is in the tropical zone and an established hotspot for arboviruses, while Charleston (SC) is in the humid subtropical zone and newly vulnerable. Although these coastal cities have distinct climates, both have hot summers. To understand mosquito infestation in both cities and potentiate our surveillance effort, we performed egg collections in the warmest season. We applied remote sensing with land-use cover and weather variation to identify mosquito infestation patterns. Our study found predominant occurrence of Ae. aegypti and, to a lesser extent, Ae. albopictus in both cities. We detected statistically significant positive and negative associations between entomological indicators and most weather variables in combined data from both cities. For all entomological indices, weekly wind speed and relative humidity were significantly positively associated, while precipitation and maximum temperature were significantly negatively associated. Aedes egg abundance was significantly positively associated with open land in Charleston but was negatively associated with vegetation cover in combined data. There is a clear need for further observational studies to determine the impact of climate change on Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus infestation in the Southeastern region of the USA.

Human movement and environmental barriers shape the emergence of dengue

Understanding how emerging infectious diseases spread within and between countries is essential to contain future pandemics. Spread to new areas requires connectivity between one or more sources and a suitable local environment, but how these two factors interact at different stages of disease emergence remains largely unknown. Further, no analytical framework exists to examine their roles. Here we develop a dynamic modelling approach for infectious diseases that explicitly models both connectivity via human movement and environmental suitability interactions. We apply it to better understand recently observed (1995-2019) patterns as well as predict past unobserved (1983-2000) and future (2020-2039) spread of dengue in Mexico and Brazil. We find that these models can accurately reconstruct long-term spread pathways, determine historical origins, and identify specific routes of invasion. We find early dengue invasion is more heavily influenced by environmental factors, resulting in patchy non-contiguous spread, while short and long-distance connectivity becomes more important in later stages. Our results have immediate practical applications for forecasting and containing the spread of dengue and emergence of new serotypes. Given current and future trends in human mobility, climate, and zoonotic spillover, understanding the interplay between connectivity and environmental suitability will be increasingly necessary to contain emerging and re-emerging pathogens.

Zika virus infection in a cell culture model reflects the transcriptomic signatures in patients

Zika virus (ZIKV), a re-emerging flavivirus, is associated with devasting developmental and neurological disease outcomes particularly in infants infected in utero. Towards understanding the molecular underpinnings of the unique ZIKV disease pathologies, numerous transcriptome-wide studies have been undertaken. Notably, these studies have overlooked the assimilation of RNA-seq analysis from ZIKV-infected patients with cell culture model systems. In this study we find that ZIKV-infection of human lung adenocarcinoma A549 cells, mirrored both the transcriptional and alternative splicing profiles from previously published RNA-seq data of peripheral blood mononuclear cells collected from pediatric patients during early acute, late acute, and convalescent phases of ZIKV infection. Our analyses show that ZIKV infection in cultured cells correlates with transcriptional changes in patients, while the overlap in alternative splicing profiles was not as extensive. Overall, our data indicate that cell culture model systems support dissection of select molecular changes detected in patients and establishes the groundwork for future studies elucidating the biological implications of alternative splicing during ZIKV infection.

Discovery of a cell-active chikungunya virus nsP2 protease inhibitor using a covalent fragment-based screening approach

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a mosquito-borne alphavirus that has been responsible for numerous large-scale outbreaks in the last twenty years. Currently, there are no FDA-approved therapeutics for any alphavirus infection. CHIKV non-structural protein 2 (nsP2), which contains a cysteine protease domain, is essential for viral replication, making it an attractive target for a drug discovery campaign. Here, we optimized a CHIKV nsP2 protease (nsP2pro) biochemical assay for the screening of a 6,120-compound cysteine-directed covalent fragment library. Using a 50% inhibition threshold, we identified 153 hits (2.5% hit rate). In dose-response follow up, RA-0002034, a covalent fragment that contains a vinyl sulfone warhead, inhibited CHIKV nsP2pro with an IC 50 of 58 ± 17 nM, and further analysis with time-dependent inhibition studies yielded a k inact /K I of 6.4 x 10 3 M -1 s -1 . LC-MS/MS analysis determined that RA-0002034 covalently modified the catalytic cysteine in a site-specific manner. Additionally, RA-0002034 showed no significant off-target reactivity against a panel of cysteine proteases. In addition to the potent biochemical inhibition of CHIKV nsP2pro activity and exceptional selectivity, RA-0002034 was tested in cellular models of alphavirus infection and effectively inhibited viral replication of both CHIKV and related alphaviruses. This study highlights the discovery and characterization of the chemical probe RA-0002034 as a promising hit compound from covalent fragment-based screening for development toward a CHIKV or pan-alphavirus therapeutic.

Significance Statement

Chikungunya virus is one of the most prominent and widespread alphaviruses and has caused explosive outbreaks of arthritic disease. Currently, there are no FDA-approved drugs to treat disease caused by chikungunya virus or any other alphavirus-caused infection. Here, we report the discovery of a covalent small molecule inhibitor of chikungunya virus nsP2 protease activity and viral replication of four diverse alphaviruses. This finding highlights the utility of covalent fragment screening for inhibitor discovery and represents a starting point towards the development of alphavirus therapeutics targeting nsP2 protease.

Fine-scale adaptive divergence and population genetic structure of Aedes aegypti in Metropolitan Manila, Philippines

BACKGROUND

The adaptive divergence of Aedes aegypti populations to heterogeneous environments can be a driving force behind the recent expansion of their habitat distribution and outbreaks of dengue disease in urbanized areas. In this study, we investigated the population genomics of Ae. aegypti at a regional scale in Metropolitan Manila, Philippines.

METHODS

We used the Pool-Seq double digestion restriction-site association DNA sequencing (ddRAD-Seq) approach to generate a high number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), with the aim to determine local adaptation and compare the population structure with 11 microsatellite markers. A total of 217 Ae. aegypti individuals from seven female and seven male populations collected from Metropolitan Manila were used in the assays.

RESULTS

We detected 65,473 SNPs across the populations, of which 76 were non-neutral SNPs. Of these non-neutral SNPs, the multivariate regression test associated 50 with eight landscape variables (e.g. open space, forest, etc.) and 29 with five climate variables (e.g. air temperature, humidity, etc.) (P-value range 0.005-0.045) in female and male populations separately. Male and female populations exhibited contrasting spatial divergence, with males exhibiting greater divergence than females, most likely reflecting the different dispersal abilities of male and female mosquitoes. In the comparative analysis of the same Ae. aegypti individuals, the pairwise FST values of 11 microsatellite markers were lower than those of the neutral SNPs, indicating that the neutral SNPs generated via pool ddRAD-Seq were more sensitive in terms of detecting genetic differences between populations at fine-spatial scales.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, our study demonstrates the utility of pool ddRAD-Seq for examining genetic differences in Ae. aegypti populations in areas at fine-spatial scales that could inform vector control programs such as Wolbachia-infected mosquito mass-release programs. This in turn would provide information on mosquito population dispersal patterns and the potential barriers to mosquito movement within and around the release area. In addition, the potential of environmental adaptability observed in Ae. aegypti could help population control efforts.

A new lineage nomenclature to aid genomic surveillance of dengue virus

Dengue virus (DENV) is currently causing epidemics of unprecedented scope in endemic settings and expanding to new geographical areas. It is therefore critical to track this virus using genomic surveillance. However, the complex patterns of viral genomic diversity make it challenging to use the existing genotype classification system. Here we propose adding two sub-genotypic levels of virus classification, named major and minor lineages. These lineages have high thresholds for phylogenetic distance and clade size, rendering them stable between phylogenetic studies. We present an assignment tool to show that the proposed lineages are useful for regional, national and sub-national discussions of relevant DENV diversity. Moreover, the proposed lineages are robust to classification using partial genome sequences. We provide a standardized neutral descriptor of DENV diversity with which we can identify and track lineages of potential epidemiological and/or clinical importance. Information about our lineage system, including methods to assign lineages to sequence data and propose new lineages, can be found at: dengue-lineages.org.

Mitigating the impact of blood shortages in England

The supply of blood components and products in sufficient quantities is key to any effective health care system. This report describes the challenges faced by the English blood service, NHS Blood and Transplant (NHSBT), towards the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, which in October 2022 led to an Amber Alert being declared to hospitals indicating an impending blood shortage. The impact on the hospital transfusion services and clinical users is explained. The actions taken by NHSBT to mitigate the blood supply challenges and ensure equity of transfusion support for hospitals in England including revisions to the national blood shortage plans are described. This report focuses on the collaboration and communication between NHSBT, NHS England (NHSE), Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), National Blood Transfusion Committee (NBTC), National Transfusion Laboratory Managers Advisory Group for NBTC (NTLM), National Transfusion Practitioners Network, the medical Royal Colleges and clinical colleagues across the NHS.

In-vitro assessment of cutaneous immune responses to aedes mosquito salivary gland extract and dengue virus in Cambodian individuals

Dengue virus (DENV) poses a global health threat, affecting millions individuals annually with no specific therapy and limited vaccines. Mosquitoes, mainly Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus worldwide, transmit DENV through their saliva during blood meals. In this study, we aimed to understand how Aedes mosquito saliva modulate skin immune responses during DENV infection in individuals living in mosquito-endemic regions. To accomplish this, we dissociated skin cells from Cambodian volunteers and incubated them with salivary gland extract (SGE) from three different mosquito strains: Ae. aegypti USDA strain, Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus wild type (WT) in the presence/absence of DENV. We observed notable alterations in skin immune cell phenotypes subsequent to exposure to Aedes salivary gland extract (SGE). Specifically, exposure lead to an increase in the frequency of macrophages expressing chemokine receptor CCR2, and neutrophils expressing CD69. Additionally, we noted a substantial increase in the percentage of macrophages that became infected with DENV in the presence of Aedes SGE. Differences in cellular responses were observed when Aedes SGE of three distinct mosquito strains were compared. Our findings deepen the understanding of mosquito saliva's role in DENV infection and skin immune responses in individuals regularly exposed to mosquito bites. This study provides insights into skin immune cell dynamics that could guide strategies to mitigate DENV transmission and other arbovirus diseases.

Interconnecting global threats: climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious diseases

The concurrent pressures of rising global temperatures, rates and incidence of species decline, and emergence of infectious diseases represent an unprecedented planetary crisis. Intergovernmental reports have drawn focus to the escalating climate and biodiversity crises and the connections between them, but interactions among all three pressures have been largely overlooked. Non-linearities and dampening and reinforcing interactions among pressures make considering interconnections essential to anticipating planetary challenges. In this Review, we define and exemplify the causal pathways that link the three global pressures of climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious disease. A literature assessment and case studies show that the mechanisms between certain pairs of pressures are better understood than others and that the full triad of interactions is rarely considered. Although challenges to evaluating these interactions-including a mismatch in scales, data availability, and methods-are substantial, current approaches would benefit from expanding scientific cultures to embrace interdisciplinarity and from integrating animal, human, and environmental perspectives. Considering the full suite of connections would be transformative for planetary health by identifying potential for co-benefits and mutually beneficial scenarios, and highlighting where a narrow focus on solutions to one pressure might aggravate another.

The potential habitat and environmental fitness change of Aedes albopictus in Western Eurasia for 2081-2100

BACKGROUND OBJECTIVES

The range of Aedes albopictus, the most important vector mosquito in Western Eurasia is growing due to climate change. However, it is not known how it will influence the habitats occupied by the species and its environmental fitness within its future range.

METHODS

To study this question, the habitat characteristic of the mosquito was investigated for 2081-2100.

RESULTS

The models suggest a notable future spread of the mosquito in the direction of Northern Europe and the parallel northward and westward shift of the southern and eastern potential occurrences of the mosquito. The models suggest a notable increase in generation numbers in the warmest quarter, which can reach 4-5 generations in the peri-Mediterranean region. However, both the joint survival rate of larvae and pupae and the number of survival days of adults in the warmest quarter exhibit decreasing values, as does the potential disappearance of the mosquito in the southern regions of Europe and Asia Minor, along with the growing atmospheric CO2 concentration-based scenarios.

INTERPRETATION CONCLUSION

While in 1970-2000 Aedes albopictus mainly occupied the hot and warm summer temperate regions of Europe, the species will inhabit dominantly the cool summer temperate (oceanic) and the humid continental climate territories of North and North-Eastern Europe in 2081-2100.

Arbovirus impact on mosquito behavior: the jury is still out

Parasites can manipulate host behavior to enhance transmission, but our understanding of arbovirus-induced changes in mosquito behavior is limited. Here, we explore current knowledge on such behavioral alterations in mosquito vectors, focusing on host-seeking and blood-feeding behaviors. Reviewing studies on dengue, Zika, La Crosse, Sindbis, and West Nile viruses in Aedes or Culex mosquitoes reveals subtle yet potentially significant effects. However, assay heterogeneity and limited sample sizes challenge definitive conclusions. To enhance robustness, we propose using deep-learning tools for automated behavior quantification and stress the need for standardized assays. Additionally, conducting longitudinal studies across the extrinsic incubation period and integrating diverse traits into modeling frameworks are crucial for understanding the nuanced implications of arbovirus-induced behavioral changes for virus transmission dynamics.

Projection of dengue fever transmissibility under climate change in South and Southeast Asian countries

Vector-borne infectious disease such as dengue fever (DF) has spread rapidly due to more suitable living environments. Considering the limited studies investigating the disease spread under climate change in South and Southeast Asia, this study aimed to project the DF transmission potential in 30 locations across four South and Southeast Asian countries. In this study, weekly DF incidence data, daily mean temperature, and rainfall data in 30 locations in Singapore, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, and Thailand from 2012 to 2020 were collected. The effects of temperature and rainfall on the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) of DF transmission were examined using generalized additive models. Projections of location-specific Rt from 2030s to 2090s were determined using projected temperature and rainfall under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), and the peak DF transmissibility and epidemic duration in the future were estimated. According to the results, the projected changes in the peak Rt and epidemic duration varied across locations, and the most significant change was observed under middle-to-high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Under SSP585, the country-specific peak Rt was projected to decrease from 1.63 (95% confidence interval: 1.39-1.91), 2.60 (1.89-3.57), and 1.41 (1.22-1.64) in 2030s to 1.22 (0.98-1.51), 2.09 (1.26-3.47), and 1.37 (0.83-2.27) in 2090s in Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia, respectively. Yet, the peak Rt in Sri Lanka changed slightly from 2030s to 2090s under SSP585. The epidemic duration in Singapore and Malaysia was projected to decline under SSP585. In conclusion, the change of peak DF transmission potential and disease outbreak duration would vary across locations, particularly under middle-to-high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Interventions should be considered to slow down global warming as well as the potential increase in DF transmissibility in some locations of South and Southeast Asia.

Current and future potential distribution of Culex (Melanoconion) (Diptera: Culicidae) of public health interest in the Neotropics

Anthropogenic activities are altering ecosystem stability and climate worldwide, which is disturbing and shifting arbovirus vector distributions. Although the overall geographic range of some epidemiologically important species is recognized, the spatiotemporal variation for other species in the context of climate change remains poorly understood. Here we predict the current potential distribution of 9 species of Culex (Melanoconion) based on an ecological niche modeling (ENM) approach and assess spatiotemporal variation in future climate change in the Neotropics. The most important environmental predictors were the mean temperature of the warmest season (27 °C), precipitation during the driest month (50 mm), and precipitation during the warmest season (>200 mm). The best current model for each species was transferred to the future general circulation model IPSL-CM6A-LR, using 2 shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (ssp1-2.6, ssp5-8.5). Under both scenarios of climatic change, an expansion of suitable areas can be observed followed by a strong reduction for the medium-long future under the worst scenario. The multivariate environmental similarity surface analysis indicated future novel climates outside the current range. However, none of the species would occur in those areas. Even if many challenges remain in improving methods for forecasting species responses to global climate change and arbovirus transmission, ENM has strong potential to be applied to the geographic characterization of these systems. Our study can be used for the monitoring of Culex (Melanoconion) species populations and their associated arboviruses, contributing to develop region-specific public health surveillance programs.

The Perpetual Vector Mosquito Threat and Its Eco-Friendly Nemeses

Mosquitoes are the most notorious arthropod vectors of viral and parasitic diseases for which approximately half the world's population, ~4,000,000,000, is at risk. Integrated pest management programs (IPMPs) have achieved some success in mitigating the regional transmission and persistence of these diseases. However, as many vector-borne diseases remain pervasive, it is obvious that IPMP successes have not been absolute in eradicating the threat imposed by mosquitoes. Moreover, the expanding mosquito geographic ranges caused by factors related to climate change and globalization (travel, trade, and migration), and the evolution of resistance to synthetic pesticides, present ongoing challenges to reducing or eliminating the local and global burden of these diseases, especially in economically and medically disadvantaged societies. Abatement strategies include the control of vector populations with synthetic pesticides and eco-friendly technologies. These "green" technologies include SIT, IIT, RIDL, CRISPR/Cas9 gene drive, and biological control that specifically targets the aquatic larval stages of mosquitoes. Regarding the latter, the most effective continues to be the widespread use of Lysinibacillus sphaericus (Ls) and Bacillus thuringiensis subsp. israelensis (Bti). Here, we present a review of the health issues elicited by vector mosquitoes, control strategies, and lastly, focus on the biology of Ls and Bti, with an emphasis on the latter, to which no resistance has been observed in the field.

Ecoepidemiology of Chagas Disease in a Biological Corridor in Southeastern Mexico: A Promising Approach to Understand the Risk of Chagas Disease

Ecoepidemiology is an emerging field that attempts to explain how biotic, environmental, and even social factors influence the dynamics of infectious diseases. Particularly in vector-borne diseases, the study under this approach offers us an overview of the pathogens, vectors, and hosts that coexist in a given region and their ecological determinants. As a result of this, risk predictions can be established in a changing environment and how it may impact human populations. This paper is aimed at evaluating some ecoepidemiological characteristics of Chagas disease in a natural reserve in southeastern Mexico that borders human settlements. We carry out a cross-sectional study in 2022 where we search insects manually and with light traps. We set traps for small mammals and bats and conducted interviews with the inhabitants living around the study site. We identified the presence of Triatoma dimidiata and T. huehuetenanguensis species with a percentage of TcI T. cruzi infection of 68.4% (95% CI: 66.9-69.9). Temperature and humidity were not determining factors for the probability of insect capture. Of the 108 wild mammals (Chiroptera, Rodentia, and Didelphimorphia), none was infected with T. cruzi. Knowledge about Chagas disease in nearby inhabitants is poor, and some characteristics were found on the periphery of dwellings that could offer a refuge for insect vectors. With this information, surveillance strategies can be generated in the study area that reduce the risk of transmission of T. cruzi parasite to humans, and it is expected to motivate the use of this field in future research.

A dengue virus infection in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Dengue is caused by a positive-stranded RNA virus called dengue virus, which is spread by Aedes mosquito species. It is a fast-growing acute febrile disease with potentially lethal consequences that is a global public health problem, mostly in tropical and subtropical countries. In Ethiopia, dengue fever is understudied, although the virus is still being transmitted and viral infection rates are rising. This systematic review and meta-analysis was aimed at estimating the pooled prevalence of DENV infection in Ethiopia.

METHODS

A literature search was done on the PubMed, Hinari and Google Scholar databases to identify studies published before July, 2023. Random effects and fixed effects models were used to estimate the pooled prevalence of all three markers. The Inconsistency Index was used to assess the level of heterogeneity.

RESULTS

A total of 11 studies conducted on suspected individuals with dengue fever and acutely febrile participants were included in this review. The majority of the studies had a moderate risk of bias and no study had a high risk of bias. A meta-analysis estimated a pooled IgG prevalence of 21% (95% CI: 19-23), a pooled IgM prevalence of 9% (95%CI: 4-13) and a pooled DENV-RNA prevalence of 48% (95% CI: 33-62). There is evidence of possible publication bias in IgG but not in the rest of the markers.

CONCLUSION

Dengue is prevalent among the dengue fever suspected and febrile population in Ethiopia. Healthcare providers, researchers and policymakers should give more attention to dengue fever.

The spread of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the islands of São Tomé and Príncipe

The mosquito Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) is a vector species of the causal agents of Dengue, yellow fever, and Zika among other diseases pathogens. The species originated in Southeast Asia and has spread widely and rapidly in the last century. The species has been reported in localities from the Gulf of Guinea since the early 2000s, but systematic sampling has been scant. We sampled Ae. albopictus twice, in 2013 and 2023 across the altitudinal gradient in São Tomé and found that the species was present in all sampled years at altitudes up to 680 m. We also found some evidence of increases in proportional representation compared to Ae. aegypti over time. We report the presence of the species in Príncipe for the first time, suggesting that the range of Ae. albopictus is larger than previously thought. Finally, we use bioclimatic niche modeling to infer the potential range of Ae. albopictus and infer that the species has the potential to spread across a large portion of São Tomé and Príncipe. Our results suggest that Ae. albopictus has established itself as a resident species of the islands of the Gulf of Guinea and should be incorporated into the list of potential vectors that need to be surveyed and controlled.

Wolbachia strain wAlbB shows favourable characteristics for dengue control use in Aedes aegypti from Burkina Faso

Dengue represents an increasing public health burden worldwide. In Africa, underreporting and misdiagnosis often mask its true epidemiology, and dengue is likely to be both more widespread than reported data suggest and increasing in incidence and distribution. Wolbachia-based dengue control is underway in Asia and the Americas but has not to date been deployed in Africa. Due to the genetic heterogeneity of African Aedes aegypti populations and the complexity of the host-symbiont interactions, characterization of key parameters of Wolbachia-carrying mosquitoes is paramount for determining the potential of the system as a control tool for dengue in Africa. The wAlbB Wolbachia strain was stably introduced into an African Ae. aegypti population by introgression, and showed high intracellular density in whole bodies and different mosquito tissues; high intracellular density was also maintained following larval rearing at high temperatures. No effect on the adult lifespan induced by Wolbachia presence was detected. Moreover, the ability of this strain to strongly inhibit DENV-2 dissemination and transmission in the host was also demonstrated in the African background. Our findings suggest the potential of harnessing Wolbachia for dengue control for African populations of Ae. aegypti.

Local Economic Conditions Affect Aedes albopictus Management

Invasive mosquitoes are an emerging public health issue, as many species are competent vectors for pathogens. We assessed how multiple environmental and socio-economic factors affected the engagement of municipalities in Italy (n = 7679) in actions against Aedes albopictus, an invasive mosquito affecting human health and well-being, between 2000 and 2020. We collected information about mosquito control from official documents and municipal websites and modeled the role played by multiple environmental and socioeconomic factors characterizing each municipality through the random forest algorithm. Municipalities are more prone to manage A. albopictus if more urbanized, in lowlands and with long infestation periods. Moreover, these variables are more predictive of management in municipalities with a high median income and thus more economic resources. Only 25.5% of Italian municipalities approved regulations for managing A. albopictus, and very few of them were in Southern Italy, the most deprived area of the country. Our findings indicate that local economic conditions moderate the effect of other drivers of mosquito control and ultimately can lead to better management of A. albopictus. If the management of invasive mosquitoes, or other forms of global change, is subjected to local economic conditions, economic inequalities will jeopardize the success of large-scale policies, also raising issues of environmental and climate justice.

Climate Change and Children's Health: Building a Healthy Future for Every Child

Observed changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, sea level, and extreme weather are destabilizing major determinants of human health. Children are at higher risk of climate-related health burdens than adults because of their unique behavior patterns; developing organ systems and physiology; greater exposure to air, food, and water contaminants per unit of body weight; and dependence on caregivers. Climate change harms children through numerous pathways, including air pollution, heat exposure, floods and hurricanes, food insecurity and nutrition, changing epidemiology of infections, and mental health harms. As the planet continues to warm, climate change's impacts will worsen, threatening to define the health and welfare of children at every stage of their lives. Children who already bear higher burden of disease because of living in low-wealth households and communities, lack of access to high quality education, and experiencing racism and other forms of unjust discrimination bear greater risk of suffering from climate change hazards. Climate change solutions, advanced through collaborative work of pediatricians, health systems, communities, corporations, and governments lead to immediate gains in child health and equity and build a foundation for generations of children to thrive. This technical report reviews the nature of climate change and its associated child health effects and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health.

Temperature affects viral kinetics and vectorial capacity of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes co-infected with Mayaro and Dengue viruses

BACKGROUND

Increasing global temperatures and unpredictable climatic extremes have contributed to the spread of vector-borne diseases. The mosquito Aedes aegypti is the main vector of multiple arboviruses that negatively impact human health, mostly in low socioeconomic areas of the world. Co-circulation and co-infection of these viruses in humans have been increasingly reported; however, how vectors contribute to this alarming trend remains unclear.

METHODS

Here, we examine single and co-infection of Mayaro virus (D strain, Alphavirus) and dengue virus (serotype 2, Flavivirus) in Ae. aegypti adults and cell lines at two constant temperatures, moderate (27 °C) and hot (32 °C), to quantify vector competence and the effect of temperature on infection, dissemination and transmission, including on the degree of interaction between the two viruses.

RESULTS

Both viruses were primarily affected by temperature but there was a partial interaction with co-infection. Dengue virus quickly replicates in adult mosquitoes with a tendency for higher titers in co-infected mosquitoes at both temperatures, and mosquito mortality was more severe at higher temperatures in all conditions. For dengue, and to a lesser extent Mayaro, vector competence and vectorial capacity were higher at hotter temperature in co- vs. single infections and was more evident at earlier time points (7 vs. 14 days post infection) for Mayaro. The temperature-dependent phenotype was confirmed in vitro by faster cellular infection and initial replication at higher temperatures for dengue but not for Mayaro virus.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that contrasting kinetics of the two viruses could be related to their intrinsic thermal requirements, where alphaviruses thrive better at lower temperatures compared to flaviviruses. However, more studies are necessary to clarify the role of co-infection at different temperature regimes, including under more natural temperature settings.