Effects of culling on mesopredator population dynamics

Evaluation of contingency actions to control the spread of raccoon rabies in Ohio and Virginia

The raccoon (Procyon lotor) variant of the rabies virus (RRV) is enzootic in the eastern United States and oral rabies vaccination (ORV) is the primary strategy to prevent and control landscape spread. Breaches of ORV management zones occasionally occur, and emergency "contingency" actions may be implemented to enhance local control. Contingency actions are an integral part of landscape-scale wildlife rabies management but can be very costly and routinely involve enhanced rabies surveillance (ERS) around the index case. We investigated two contingency actions in Ohio (2017-2019 and 2018-2021) and one in Virginia (2017-2019) using a dynamic, multi-method occupancy approach to examine relationships between specific management actions and RRV occurrence, including whether ERS was sufficient around the index case. The RRV occupancy was assessed seasonally at 100-km2 grids and we examined relationships across three spatial scales (regional management zone, RRV free regions, and local contingency areas). The location of a grid relative to the ORV management zone was the strongest predictor of RRV occupancy at the regional scale. In RRV free regions, the neighbor effect and temporal variability were most important in influencing RRV occupancy. Parenteral (hand) vaccination of raccoons was important across all three contingency action areas, but more influential in the Ohio contingency action areas where more raccoons were hand vaccinated. In the Virginia contingency action area, ORV strategies were as important in reducing RRV occupancy as a hand vaccination strategy. The management action to trap, euthanize, and test (TET) raccoons was an important method to increase ERS, yet the impacts of TET on RRV occupancy are not clear. The probability of detecting additional cases of RRV was exceptionally high (>0.95) during the season the index case occurred. The probability of detecting RRV through ERS declined in the seasons following initial TET efforts but remained higher after the contingency action compared to the ERS detection probabilities prior to index case incidence. Local RRV cases were contained within one year and eliminated within 2-3 years of each contingency action.

Combining live and lethal trapping to inform the management of alien invasive rodent populations in a tropical montane forest

On large inhabited islands where complete eradication of alien invasive rodents through the use of poison delivery is often not practical or acceptable, mechanical trapping may represent the only viable option to reduce their impact in areas of high biodiversity value. However, the feasibility of sustained rodent control by trapping remains uncertain under realistic operational constraints. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of non-toxic rat control strategies through a combination of lethal and live-trapping experiments, and scenario modelling, using the example of a remote montane rainforest of New Caledonia. Rat densities, estimated with spatially-explicit capture-recapture models, fluctuated seasonally (9.5–33.6 ind.ha-1). Capture probability (.01–.25) and home range sizes (HR95, .23–.75 ha) varied greatly according to trapping session, age class, sex and species. Controlling rats through the use of lethal trapping allowed maintaining rat densities at ca. 8 ind.ha-1 over a seven-month period in a 5.5-ha montane forest. Simulation models based on field parameter estimates over a 200-ha pilot management area indicated that without any financial and social constraints, trapping grids with the finest mesh sizes achieved cumulative capture probabilities > .90 after 15 trapping days, but were difficult to implement and sustain with the local workforce. We evaluated the costs and effectiveness of alternative trapping strategies taking into account the prevailing set of local constraints, and identified those that were likely to be successful. Scenario modelling, informed by trapping experiments, is a flexible tool for informing the design of sustainable control programs of island-invasive rodent populations, under idiosyncratic local circumstances.

Reproduction of East-African bats may guide risk mitigation for coronavirus spillover

BACKGROUND

Bats provide important ecosystem services; however, current evidence supports that they host several zoonotic viruses, including species of the Coronaviridae family. If bats in close interaction with humans host and shed coronaviruses with zoonotic potential, such as the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome virus, spillover may occur. Therefore, strategies aiming to mitigate potential spillover and disease emergence, while supporting the conservation of bats and their important ecological roles are needed. Past research suggests that coronavirus shedding in bats varies seasonally following their reproductive cycle; however, shedding dynamics have been assessed in only a few species, which does not allow for generalization of findings across bat taxa and geographic regions.

METHODS

To assess the generalizability of coronavirus shedding seasonality, we sampled hundreds of bats belonging to several species with different life history traits across East Africa at different times of the year. We assessed, via Bayesian modeling, the hypothesis that chiropterans, across species and spatial domains, experience seasonal trends in coronavirus shedding as a function of the reproductive cycle.

RESULTS

We found that, beyond spatial, taxonomic, and life history differences, coronavirus shedding is more expected when pups are becoming independent from the dam and that juvenile bats are prone to shed these viruses.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings could guide policy aimed at the prevention of spillover in limited-resource settings, where longitudinal surveillance is not feasible, by identifying high-risk periods for coronavirus shedding. In these periods, contact with bats should be avoided (for example, by impeding or forbidding people access to caves). Our proposed strategy provides an alternative to culling - an ethically questionable practice that may result in higher pathogen levels - and supports the conservation of bats and the delivery of their key ecosystem services.

Management and modeling approaches for controlling raccoon rabies: The road to elimination

Rabies is an ancient viral disease that significantly impacts human and animal health throughout the world. In the developing parts of the world, dog bites represent the highest risk of rabies infection to people, livestock, and other animals. However, in North America, where several rabies virus variants currently circulate in wildlife, human contact with the raccoon rabies variant leads to the highest per capita population administration of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) annually. Previous rabies variant elimination in raccoons (Canada), foxes (Europe), and dogs and coyotes (United States) demonstrates that elimination of the raccoon variant from the eastern US is feasible, given an understanding of rabies control costs and benefits and the availability of proper tools. Also critical is a cooperatively produced strategic plan that emphasizes collaborative rabies management among agencies and organizations at the landscape scale. Common management strategies, alone or as part of an integrated approach, include the following: oral rabies vaccination (ORV), trap-vaccinate-release (TVR), and local population reduction. As a complement, mathematical and statistical modeling approaches can guide intervention planning, such as through contact networks, circuit theory, individual-based modeling, and others, which can be used to better understand and predict rabies dynamics through simulated interactions among the host, virus, environment, and control strategy. Strategies derived from this ecological lens can then be optimized to produce a management plan that balances the ecological needs and program financial resources. This paper discusses the management and modeling strategies that are currently used, or have been used in the past, and provides a platform of options for consideration while developing raccoon rabies virus elimination strategies in the US.

Influence of habitat attributes on density of Virginia opossums (Didelphis virginiana) in agricultural ecosystems

In agriculturally fragmented ecosystems, mesopredators play dominant roles in food webs through scavenging. We examined the influence of habitat attributes associated with carrion on local Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana Kerr, 1792) density in an agricultural landscape. We conducted opossum mark–recapture in 25 forest patches from 2005 to 2010, which represented the most extensive sampling of opossums to date. We analyzed mark–recapture data with a closed robust design and evaluated effects of landscape features linked to carrion on opossum density and female opossum density with generalized linear mixed-effects models. We included landscape-level (1481.6 m buffer) and patch-level covariates linked to carrion in addition to other covariates associated with high opossum densities. We developed a set of 19 candidate models and examined model fit with Akaike’s information criterion. The top model for opossum density included the density of adjoining roads, whereas the top model for female density included patch size, although the statistical null was a competing model in both cases. The long-distance dispersal capability and generalist diet of the opossum likely precluded us from detecting a definitive relationship between covariates and opossum density. The scale of effect for opossum density in agriculturally fragmented landscapes is likely larger than the spatial scales examined here.

Population control of an overabundant species achieved through consecutive anthropogenic perturbations

The control of overabundant vertebrates is often problematic. Much work has focused on population-level responses and overabundance due to anthropogenic subsidies. However, far less work has been directed at investigating responses following the removal of subsidies. We investigate the consequences of two consecutive perturbations, the closure of a landfill and an inadvertent poisoning event, on the trophic ecology (δ13C, δ15N, and δ34S), survival, and population size of an overabundant generalist seabird species, the Yellow-legged Gull (Larus michahellis). We expected that the landfill closure would cause a strong dietary shift and the inadvertent poisoning a decrease in gull population size. As a long-lived species, we also anticipated adult survival to be buffered against the decrease in food availability but not against the inadvertent poisoning event. Stable isotope analysis confirmed the dietary shift towards marine resources after the disappearance of the landfill. Although the survival model was inconclusive, it did suggest that the perturbations had a negative effect on survival, which was followed by a recovery back to average values. Food limitation likely triggered dispersal to other populations, while poisoning may have increased mortality; these two processes were likely responsible for the large fall in population size that occurred after the two consecutive perturbations. Life-history theory suggests that perturbations may encourage species to halt existing breeding investment in order to ensure future survival. However, under strong perturbation pulses the resilience threshold might be surpassed and changes in population density can arise. Consecutive perturbations may effectively manage overabundant species.

Impacts of Mesopredator Control on Conservation of Mesopredators and Their Prey

Declining large carnivore populations, increased habitat fragmentation, declining interests in fur trapping, and other anthropogenic factors can all lead to increased mesopredator populations and these may negatively impact biodiversity. Lethal mesopredator control potentially mitigates some of these effects but can be controversial, largely because impacts on mesopredator populations have not been evaluated. Estimating these impacts may reduce controversies while increasing our understanding of when lethal control may be beneficial. Therefore, we analyzed published mesopredator removal data to determine if mesopredator removal rates changed over time. Removals of medium,(e.g., raccoons (Procyon lotor) or red foxes (Vulpes vulpes), and large, i.e., bobcats (Lynx rufus) or coyotes (Canis latrans), mesopredators were consistent from year to year and over the duration of study (i.e., number removed during the first and last years of studies were similar). In contrast, removals of small mesopredators, e.g., weasels (Mustela spp.) or spotted skunks (Spilogale putorius), declined over the duration of study. Study area size, number of species targeted for removal, and duration of removal effort were poor predictors of removal rates. Our analyses suggest that: (1) control, as typically implemented, is unlikely to cause negative long-term impacts on populations of medium and large mesopredators but may negatively impact small mesopredators, (2) if mesopredator control benefits prey, recurring removals will generally be needed to maintain benefits, and (3) timing of removals will be important to achieve management goals. We suggest that mesopredator control efforts are frequently spatially structured harvests from continuously distributed populations. This may explain (1) why removal of small mesopredators declined over time; whereas, medium and large mesopredator removals remained consistent, and (2) why some prey failed to respond to mesopredator control efforts.

Raccoon social networks and the potential for disease transmission

Raccoons are an important vector of rabies and other pathogens. The degree to which these pathogens can spread through a raccoon population should be closely linked to association rates between individual raccoons. Most studies of raccoon sociality have found patterns consistent with low levels of social connectivity within populations, thus the likelihood of direct pathogen transmission between raccoons is theoretically low. We used proximity detecting collars and social network metrics to calculate the degree of social connectivity in an urban raccoon population for purposes of estimating potential pathogen spread. In contrast to previous assumptions, raccoon social association networks were highly connected, and all individuals were connected to one large social network during 15 out of 18 months of study. However, these metrics may overestimate the potential for a pathogen to spread through a population, as many of the social connections were based on relatively short contact periods. To more closely reflect varying probabilities of pathogen spread, we censored the raccoon social networks based on the total amount of time spent in close proximity between two individuals per month. As this time criteria for censoring the social networks increased from one to thirty minutes, corresponding measures of network connectivity declined. These findings demonstrate that raccoon populations are much more tightly connected than would have been predicted based on previous studies, but also point out that additional research is needed to calculate more precise transmission probabilities by infected individuals, and determine how disease infection changes normal social behaviors.

Baylisascaris procyonis infection in white-footed mice: predicting patterns of infection from landscape habitat attributes

There is a growing body of evidence that habitat fragmentation resulting from anthropogenic land use can alter the transmission dynamics of infectious disease. Baylisascaris procyonis , a parasitic roundworm with the ability to cause fatal central nervous system disease in many mammals, including humans, is a zoonotic threat, and research suggests that parasite recruitment rates by intermediate hosts are highly variable among forest patches in fragmented landscapes. During 2008, we sampled 353 white-footed mice ( Peromyscus leucopus ) from 22 forest patches distributed throughout a fragmented agricultural ecosystem to determine the influence of landscape-level habitat attributes on infection rates of B. procyonis in mice. We characterized each mouse in terms of infection status and intensity of infection, and calculated (on a patch-wide basis) prevalence, mean abundance of B. procyonis , and mean intensity of infection. We used an information-theoretic approach to develop a suite of candidate models characterizing the influence of landscape attributes on each of our measured characteristics of B. procyonis infection in white-footed mice, based on previous knowledge of raccoon ( Procyon lotor ) ecology and B. procyonis distribution in agricultural ecosystems. We observed evidence of B. procyonis infection in mice across all 22 habitat patches sampled. However, parasite recruitment rates and intensity were highly variable among patches, and the results of our analyses suggest that spatial variability in B. procyonis infections was primarily driven by emergent properties of fragmented ecosystems. In particular, prevalence, abundance, and intensity of B. procyonis infections in mice were negatively associated with the size and connectivity of forest patches. These results support previous studies indicating that habitat fragmentation can alter the transmission dynamics of infectious disease, and suggest that factors below the scale of landscape, i.e., fine-scale habitat structure or demographic and behavioral attributes of intermediate and/or definitive hosts, also may be important for predicting patterns of B. procyonis infection in intermediate hosts.