Effects of extreme weather on reproductive success in a temperate-breeding songbird

Trait-specific sensitive developmental windows: Wing growth best integrates weather conditions encountered throughout the development of nestling Alpine swifts

The size and growth patterns of nestling birds are key determinants of their survival up to fledging and long-term fitness. However, because traits such as feathers, skeleton and body mass can follow different developmental trajectories, our understanding of the impact of adverse weather on development requires insights into trait-specific sensitive developmental windows. We analysed data from nestling Alpine swifts in Switzerland measured throughout growth up to the age of 50 days (i.e. fledging between 50 and 70 days), for wing length and body mass (2693 nestlings in 25 years) and sternum length (2447 nestlings in 22 years). We show that the sensitive developmental windows for wing and sternum length corresponded to the periods of trait-specific peak growth, which span almost the whole developmental period for wings and the first half for the sternum. Adverse weather conditions during these periods slowed down growth and reduced size. Although nestling body mass at 50 days showed the greatest inter-individual variation, this was explained by weather in the two days before measurement rather than during peak growth. Interestingly, the relationship between temperature and body mass was not linear, and the initial sharp increase in body mass associated with the increase in temperature was followed by a moderate drop on hot days, likely linked to heat stress. Nestlings experiencing adverse weather conditions during wing growth had lower survival rates up to fledging and fledged at later ages, presumably to compensate for slower wing growth. Overall, our results suggest that measures of feather growth and, to some extent, skeletal growth best capture the consequences of adverse weather conditions throughout the whole development of offspring, while body mass better reflects the short, instantaneous effects of weather conditions on their body reserves (i.e. energy depletion vs. storage in unfavourable vs. favourable conditions).

Duration and variability of spring green-up mediate population consequences of climate change

Single phenological measures, like the average rate of phenological advancement, may be insufficient to explain how climate change is driving trends in animal populations. Here, we develop a multifactorial concept of spring phenology-including the onset of spring, spring duration, interannual variability, and their temporal changes-as a driver for population dynamics of migratory terrestrial species in seasonal environments. Using this conceptual model, we found that effects of advancing spring phenology on animal populations may be buffered or amplified depending on the duration and interannual variability of spring green-up, and those effects are modified by evolutionary and plastic adaptations of species. Furthermore, we compared our modelling results with empirical data on normalized difference vegetation index-based spring green-up phenology and population trends of 106 European landbird finding similar associations. We conclude how phenological changes are expected to affect migratory bird populations across Europe and identify regions that are particularly prone to suffer population declines.

Epigenetic modification of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis during development in the house sparrow (Passer domesticus)

Epigenetic modifications such as DNA methylation are important mechanisms for mediating developmental plasticity, where ontogenetic processes and their phenotypic outcomes are shaped by early environments. In particular, changes in DNA methylation of genes within the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis can impact offspring growth and development. This relationship has been well documented in mammals but is less understood in other taxa. Here, we use target-enriched enzymatic methyl sequencing (TEEM-seq) to assess how DNA methylation in a suite of 25 genes changes over development, how these modifications relate to the early environment, and how they predict differential growth trajectories in the house sparrow (Passer domesticus). We found that DNA methylation changes dynamically over the postnatal developmental period: genes with initially low DNA methylation tended to decline in methylation over development, whereas genes with initially high DNA methylation tended to increase in methylation. However, sex-specific differentially methylated regions (DMRs) were maintained across the developmental period. We also found significant differences in post-hatching DNA methylation in relation to hatch date, with higher levels of DNA methylation in nestlings hatched earlier in the season. Although these differences were largely absent by the end of development, a number of DMRs in HPA-related genes (CRH, MC2R, NR3C1, NR3C2, POMC)-and to a lesser degree HPG-related genes (GNRHR2)-predicted nestling growth trajectories over development. These findings provide insight into the mechanisms by which the early environment shapes DNA methylation in the HPA axis, and how these changes subsequently influence growth and potentially mediate developmental plasticity.

Temperature-dependent Developmental Plasticity and Its Effects on Allen's and Bergmann's Rules in Endotherms

Ecogeographical rules, describing common trends in animal form across space and time, have provided key insights into the primary factors driving species diversity on our planet. Among the most well-known ecogeographical rules are Bergmann's rule and Allen's rule, with each correlating ambient temperature to the size and shape of endotherms within a species. In recent years, these two rules have attracted renewed research attention, largely with the goal of understanding how they emerge (e.g., via natural selection or phenotypic plasticity) and, thus, whether they may emerge quickly enough to aid adaptations to a warming world. Yet despite this attention, the precise proximate and ultimate drivers of Bergmann's and Allen's rules remain unresolved. In this conceptual paper, we articulate novel and classic hypotheses for understanding whether and how plastic responses to developmental temperatures might contributed to each rule. Next, we compare over a century of empirical literature surrounding Bergmann's and Allen's rules against our hypotheses to uncover likely avenues by which developmental plasticity might drive temperature-phenotype correlations. Across birds and mammals, studies strongly support developmental plasticity as a driver of Bergmann's and Allen's rules, particularly with regards to Allen's rule. However, plastic contributions toward each rule appear largely non-linear and dependent upon: (1) efficiency of energy use (Bergmann's rule) and (2) thermal advantages (Allen's rule) at given ambient temperatures. These findings suggest that, among endotherms, rapid changes in body shape and size will continue to co-occur with our changing climate, but generalizing the direction of responses across populations is likely naive.

Effects of heat waves on telomere dynamics and parental brooding effort in nestlings of the zebra finch (Taeniopygia castanotis) transitioning from ectothermy to endothermy

Heat waves are predicted to be detrimental for organismal physiology with costs for survival that could be reflected in markers of biological state such as telomeres. Changes in early life telomere dynamics driven by thermal stress are of particular interest during the early post-natal stages of altricial birds because nestlings quickly shift from being ectothermic to endothermic after hatching. Telomeres of ectothermic and endothermic organisms respond differently to environmental temperature, but few investigations within species that transition from ectothermy to endothermy are available. Also, ambient temperature influences parental brooding behaviour, which will alter the temperature experienced by offspring and thereby, potentially, their telomeres. We exposed zebra finch nestlings to experimental heat waves and compared their telomere dynamics to that of a control group at 5, 12 and 80 days of age that encapsulate the transition from the ectothermic to the endothermic thermoregulatory stage; we also recorded parental brooding, offspring sex, mass, growth rates, brood size and hatch order. Nestling mass showed an inverse relationship with telomere length, and nestlings exposed to heat waves showed lower telomere attrition during their first 12 days of life (ectothermic stage) compared to controls. Additionally, parents of heated broods reduced the time they spent brooding offspring (at 5 days old) compared to controls. Our results indicate that the effect of heat waves on telomere dynamics likely varies depending on age and thermoregulatory stage of the offspring in combination with parental brooding behaviour during growth.

Interacting effects of cold snaps, rain, and agriculture on the fledging success of a declining aerial insectivore

Climate change predicts the increased frequency, duration, and intensity of inclement weather periods such as unseasonably low temperatures (i.e., cold snaps) and prolonged precipitation. Many migratory species have advanced the phenology of important life history stages and, as a result, are likely to be exposed to these periods of inclement spring weather more often, therefore risking reduced fitness and population growth. For declining avian species, including aerial insectivores, anthropogenic landscape changes such as agricultural intensification are another driver of population declines. These landscape changes may affect the foraging ability of food provisioning parents and reduce the survival of nestlings exposed to inclement weather through, for example, pesticide exposure impairing thermoregulation and punctual anorexia. Breeding in agro-intensive landscapes may therefore exacerbate the negative effects of inclement weather under climate change. We observed that a significant reduction in the availability of insect prey occurred when daily maximum temperatures fell below 18.3°C, and thereby defined any day when the maximum temperature fell below this value as a day witnessing a cold snap. We then combined daily information on the occurrence of cold snaps and measures of precipitation to assess their impact on the fledging success of Tree Swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) occupying a nest box system placed across a gradient of agricultural intensification. Estimated fledging success of this declining aerial insectivore was 36.2% lower for broods experiencing 4 cold-snap days during the 12 days post-hatching period versus broods experiencing none, and this relationship was worsened when facing more precipitation. We further found that the overall negative effects of a brood experiencing periods of inclement weather was exacerbated in more agro-intensive landscapes. Our results indicate that two of the primary hypothesized drivers of many avian population declines may interact to further increase the rate of declines in certain landscape contexts.

Influence of different weather aspects on breeding performance, food supply and nest-space use in hoopoe offspring

Abstract

In this study, we investigated the influence of different weather aspects on breeding performance, food supply and nest-space use in hoopoe offspring (Upupa epops). Camera recordings of 88 nests were used to examine how ambient environmental conditions influence food supply, offspring nest-space use and the trade-off nestlings face regarding the two mainly used locations in the nest. Therefore, we provide a comprehensive analysis involving different factors including weather parameters together with food provisioned to nestlings on different temporal scales to identify the factors having the most influence on nest-space use. We found that different breeding conditions significantly influenced how nestlings used the nest. During excessively humid weather, nestlings spent more time under the entrance hole when small food was delivered. However, nestlings supplied with large prey more often remained hidden in the distant area, despite the adverse weather situation. In all three aspects and temporal scales, our analysis confirmed that prey was the most important factor influencing offspring nest-space use, suggesting a crucial role of large insects for hoopoes. Finally, we found that long-term effects of weather affect overall food provisioned to nestlings and thus offspring behaviour. We provide evidence that parental feeding location and prey size, which are in turn influenced by weather conditions, are the most influential factors for nest-space use. This study expands our knowledge of parent–offspring communication and how environmental factors may lead to differential nest-space use, which may be regarded as the earliest form of habitat preference in birds.

Significance statement

Nests are usually constrained in space but designed to protect offspring from the environment while giving them limited possibilities to express behavioural diversity. This is particularly true for bird nests, where nestlings are usually packed in close contact with one another and without much space for movement, except begging. Here we demonstrate that nest features, such as available nest space together with environmental conditions surrounding a nest, influence nestling strategies and behaviours, including social interactions between nest mates, which further leads to fitness consequences. Our results seem to be of great importance for habitat selection theory in birds, in particular regarding the early development of habitat preferences (imprinting) and use. On the other hand, the result may also have important implications for conservation issues given that nestling behaviour may be used as a determinant of environmental quality.

Selection on adaptive and maladaptive gene expression plasticity during thermal adaptation to urban heat islands

Phenotypic plasticity enables a single genotype to produce multiple phenotypes in response to environmental variation. Plasticity may play a critical role in the colonization of novel environments, but its role in adaptive evolution is controversial. Here we suggest that rapid parallel regulatory adaptation of Anolis lizards to urban heat islands is due primarily to selection for reduced and/or reversed heat-induced plasticity that is maladaptive in urban thermal conditions. We identify evidence for polygenic selection across genes of the skeletal muscle transcriptome associated with heat tolerance. Forest lizards raised in common garden conditions exhibit heat-induced changes in expression of these genes that largely correlate with decreased heat tolerance, consistent with maladaptive regulatory response to high-temperature environments. In contrast, urban lizards display reduced gene expression plasticity after heat challenge in common garden and a significant increase in gene expression change that is congruent with greater heat tolerance, a putatively adaptive state in warmer urban environments. Genes displaying maladaptive heat-induced plasticity repeatedly show greater genetic divergence between urban and forest habitats than those displaying adaptive plasticity. These results highlight the role of selection against maladaptive regulatory plasticity during rapid adaptive modification of complex systems in the wild.

Temperature and land use influence tree swallow individual health

Aerial insectivorous bird populations have declined precipitously in both North America and Europe. We assessed the effects of insect prey availability, climate and shifts in water quality associated with urbanization on haematocrit, haemoglobin concentration and heterophil-lymphocyte (H/L) ratios among ~13-day-old tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) nestlings in the Columbus, Ohio area. Higher mean temperature and increased frequency of extreme heat days during the early breeding period (May-June) were linked to reduced nestling physiological condition as evidenced by lower concentrations of haemoglobin and haematocrit, potentially due to increased heat stress, shifts in insect prey availability or altered parental provisioning efforts. Urbanization and the size and density of emergent aquatic insects were associated with elevated physiological stress, whereas higher mean temperatures and terrestrial insect size were related to lower stress as measured by H/L ratios. Overall, these findings highlight the complex environmental conditions driving nestling health, which may be indicative of post-fledging survival and, consequently, population growth. Our results underscore the need for conservation approaches that adequately address the interrelated effects of changes in climate, land use and food resources on aerial insectivorous birds.

Extreme temperature drop alters hatching delay, reproductive success, and physiological condition in great tits

It has been suggested that extreme weather events may be treated as natural experiments that may unravel the mechanisms by which birds adjust their phenology and breeding parameters to environmental variability. In 2017, a sudden and heavy drop of temperatures for several days affected many European bird populations. This event occurred during the laying-early incubation period in the great tit (Parus major) population in central Poland, causing a large delay in hatching and had sustained reproductive consequences. This cold snap occurring once breeding activity had already started in 2017 was followed by the warm and invariable breeding season of 2018. This natural experiment had an essential influence on great tit reproductive parameters. We found a significant difference in hatching date, number of fledglings, hatching success, and fledging success between 2017 and 2018. In 2017, there were about two fledglings per nest fewer than in 2018. Fledging success was positively associated with hatching delay in 2017, while the relation was negative in 2018. Hatching success differed significantly between both years, being higher in 2018. Mean level of hemoglobin (used as index of body, physiological condition) in the blood of nestling great tits was higher in 2017 than in 2018. We argue that the moment of hatching may be (at least in some years) more tightly related to the moment of maximum food demand of tit nestlings than the traditionally used laying date. Also in extreme years, phenotypic plasticity of hatching delays may be insufficient to adjust the timing of breeding to the upcoming extreme weather events. Further examining its limits may be an important goal for future research.

Does temperature variation influence nest box use by the eastern pygmy-possum?

Cavity-using birds and mammals reliant on nest boxes may be negatively affected by the poor thermal buffering of nest boxes. I investigated whether nest box use by the eastern pygmy-possum (Cercartetus nanus) over a 4-year period was influenced by maximum ambient temperature, which ranged from 15.6 to 34.9°C during survey occasions. Occupancy modelling of 144 site detections over 30 survey occasions suggested that a model that included maximum temperature had little support whereas a model involving time-varying detection (i.e. detection differed across sample occasions) was the most plausible. I also investigated how temperatures in nest boxes and tree hollows varied over the four hottest days of summer, including one day when the temperature reached 40.6°C. Maximum temperatures were 3–4°C cooler in plywood nest boxes and 5–8°C cooler in tree hollows compared with ambient temperatures. Together, these results suggest that eastern pygmy-possums using nest boxes in coastal areas are unlikely to experience heat stress. Cavity-using species are a heterogeneous group such that empirical studies are required to identify those that may be vulnerable to heat stress if nest boxes are used to provide population support.

Research questions to facilitate the future development of European long-term ecosystem research infrastructures: A horizon scanning exercise

Distributed environmental research infrastructures are important to support assessments of the effects of global change on landscapes, ecosystems and society. These infrastructures need to provide continuity to address long-term change, yet be flexible enough to respond to rapid societal and technological developments that modify research priorities. We used a horizon scanning exercise to identify and prioritize emerging research questions for the future development of ecosystem and socio-ecological research infrastructures in Europe. Twenty research questions covered topics related to (i) ecosystem structures and processes, (ii) the impacts of anthropogenic drivers on ecosystems, (iii) ecosystem services and socio-ecological systems and (iv), methods and research infrastructures. Several key priorities for the development of research infrastructures emerged. Addressing complex environmental issues requires the adoption of a whole-system approach, achieved through integration of biotic, abiotic and socio-economic measurements. Interoperability among different research infrastructures needs to be improved by developing standard measurements, harmonizing methods, and establishing capacities and tools for data integration, processing, storage and analysis. Future research infrastructures should support a range of methodological approaches including observation, experiments and modelling. They should also have flexibility to respond to new requirements, for example by adjusting the spatio-temporal design of measurements. When new methods are introduced, compatibility with important long-term data series must be ensured. Finally, indicators, tools, and transdisciplinary approaches to identify, quantify and value ecosystem services across spatial scales and domains need to be advanced.

Relative contribution of climate and non-climate drivers in determining dynamic rates of boreal birds at the edge of their range

The Adirondack Park in New York State contains a unique and limited distribution of boreal ecosystem types, providing habitat for a number of birds at the southern edge of their range. Species are projected to shift poleward in a warming climate, and the limited boreal forest of the Adirondacks is expected to undergo significant change in response to rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. Here we expand upon a previous analysis to examine changes in occupancy patterns for eight species of boreal birds over a decade (2007-2016), and we assess the relative contribution of climate and non-climate drivers in determining colonization and extinction rates. Our analysis identifies patterns of declining occupancy for six of eight species, including some declines which appear to have become more pronounced since a prior analysis. Although non-climate drivers such as wetland area, connectivity, and human footprint continue to influence colonization and extinction rates, we find that for most species, occupancy patterns are best described by climate drivers. We modeled both average and annual temperature and precipitation characteristics and find stronger support for species' responses to average climate conditions, rather than interannual climate variability. In general, boreal birds appear most likely to colonize sites that have lower levels of precipitation and a high degree of connectivity, and they tend to persist in sites that are warmer in the breeding season and have low and less variable precipitation in the winter. It is likely that these responses reflect interactions between broader habitat conditions and temperature and precipitation variables. Indirect climate influences as mediated through altered species interactions may also be important in this context. Given climate change predictions for both temperature and precipitation, it is likely that habitat structural changes over the long term may alter these relationships in the future.

A simulated heat wave shortens the telomere length and lifespan of a desert lizard

Understanding how organisms respond to warming contributes important information to the conservation of biodiversity that is threatened by climate warming. Here, we conducted experiments on a desert agama (Phrynocephalus przewalskii) to test the hypothesis that climate warming (an increase in both mean temperature and heat waves) would induce oxidative stress, shortening telomere length, and thereby decreasing survival. Our results demonstrated that one week of exposure to a simulated heat wave significantly shortened telomere length, and decreased the overwinter survival of lizards, but mean temperature increase did not affect the survival of lizards. However, the antioxidant capacity (anti-oxidative enzyme) was not affected by the warming treatments. Therefore, heat waves might have negative impacts on the desert agama, with shortened telomeres likely causing the lifespan of lizards to decrease under climate warming.

Hatching delays in great tits and blue tits in response to an extreme cold spell: a long-term study

Variation in ambient temperature affects various life stages of organisms. It has been suggested that climate change not only implies higher global temperatures but also more unpredictable weather and more frequent extreme weather events. Temperature has a major influence on the optimal laying-incubation-hatching dates of insectivorous passerines, because it poses energetic constraints and affects the timing of food abundance. We have been studying breeding characteristics of great tits Parus major and blue tits Cyanistes caeruleus in two areas, an urban parkland and a deciduous forest, around the city of Łódź since 2002. During the egg-laying period in 2017, both tit species at both study areas faced an unusual cold spell as reflected by a sudden decrease in the mean ambient temperature to ca. 2-3 °C for about 5 days, which caused mean hatching delays of up to 6 days. Since flexibility of behavior plays a major role in adjusting to unpredictable weather conditions, examining its limits may be an important goal for future research.

Phenological shifts conserve thermal niches in North American birds and reshape expectations for climate-driven range shifts

Species respond to climate change in two dominant ways: range shifts in latitude or elevation and phenological shifts of life-history events. Range shifts are widely viewed as the principal mechanism for thermal niche tracking, and phenological shifts in birds and other consumers are widely understood as the principal mechanism for tracking temporal peaks in biotic resources. However, phenological and range shifts each present simultaneous opportunities for temperature and resource tracking, although the possible role for phenological shifts in thermal niche tracking has been widely overlooked. Using a canonical dataset of Californian bird surveys and a detectability-based approach for quantifying phenological signal, we show that Californian bird communities advanced their breeding phenology by 5-12 d over the last century. This phenological shift might track shifting resource peaks, but it also reduces average temperatures during nesting by over 1 °C, approximately the same magnitude that average temperatures have warmed over the same period. We further show that early-summer temperature anomalies are correlated with nest success in a continental-scale database of bird nests, suggesting avian thermal niches might be broadly limited by temperatures during nesting. These findings outline an adaptation surface where geographic range and breeding phenology respond jointly to constraints imposed by temperature and resource phenology. By stabilizing temperatures during nesting, phenological shifts might mitigate the need for range shifts. Global change ecology will benefit from further exploring phenological adjustment as a potential mechanism for thermal niche tracking and vice versa.

Nestling Growth is Impaired by Heat Stress: an Experimental Study in a Mediterranean Great Tit Population

Samuel Rodríguez and Emilio Barba (2016) During the nestling stage, nestlings of small altricial birds face energetic limitations due to their rapid development and the need to maintain a stable body temperature once homeothermy is achieved. In Mediterranean habitats, high air temperatures reached during the breeding season could negatively affect the health and condition of the nestlings. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of an experimental increase of nest temperatures during the nestling stage on the growth and survival of Great Tit (Parus major) nestlings. Additionally, changes in parental brooding and feeding behavior as a result of the alteration of the nest microclimate were addressed. Increased nest temperatures affected nestling mass, as heated nestlings were lighter than controls on day 15 in the warmer of the two breeding seasons considered. Moreover, females from the heating treatment reduced their brooding time. Fledging success and parental feeding rates were not altered by the experimental treatment. The results of this study suggest that high nest temperatures may impair nestling development and therefore affect post-fledging survival probability. Negative effects are more likely to occur in warm habitats and/or warmer years, where juveniles are liable to suffer from thermal stress.

Temperature-related geographical shifts among passerines: contrasting processes along poleward and equatorward range margins

Climate change is causing widespread geographical range shifts, which likely reflects different processes at leading and trailing range margins. Progressive warming is thought to relax thermal barriers at poleward range margins, enabling colonization of novel areas, but imposes increasingly unsuitable thermal conditions at equatorward margins, leading to range losses from those areas. Few tests of this process during recent climate change have been possible, but understanding determinants of species’ range limits will improve predictions of their geographical responses to climate change and variation in extinction risk. Here, we examine the relationship between poleward and equatorward range margin dynamics with respect to temperature‐related geographical limits observed for 34 breeding passerine species in North America between 1984–1988 and 2002–2006. We find that species’ equatorward range margins were closer to their upper realized thermal niche limits and proximity to those limits predicts equatorward population extinction risk through time. Conversely, the difference between breeding bird species’ poleward range margin temperatures and the coolest temperatures they tolerate elsewhere in their ranges was substantial and remained consistent through time: range expansion at species’ poleward range margins is unlikely to directly reflect lowered thermal barriers to colonization. The process of range expansion may reflect more complex factors operating across broader areas of species’ ranges. The latitudinal extent of breeding bird ranges is decreasing through time. Disparate responses observed at poleward versus equatorward margins arise due to differences in range margin placement within the realized thermal niche and suggest that climate‐induced geographical shift at equatorward range limits more strongly reflect abiotic conditions than at their poleward range limits. This further suggests that observed geographic responses to date may fail to demonstrate the true cost of climate change on the poleward portion of species’ distributions. Poleward range margins for North American breeding passerines are not presently in equilibrium with realized thermal limits.

The effects of a remediated fly ash spill and weather conditions on reproductive success and offspring development in tree swallows

Animals are exposed to natural and anthropogenic stressors during reproduction that may individually or interactively influence reproductive success and offspring development. We examined the effects of weather conditions, exposure to element contamination from a recently remediated fly ash spill, and the interaction between these factors on reproductive success and growth of tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) across nine colonies. Females breeding in colonies impacted by the spill transferred greater concentrations of mercury (Hg), selenium (Se), strontium, and thallium to their eggs than females in reference colonies. Parental provisioning of emerging aquatic insects resulted in greater blood Se concentrations in nestlings in impacted colonies compared to reference colonies, and these concentrations remained stable across 2 years. Egg and blood element concentrations were unrelated to reproductive success or nestling condition. Greater rainfall and higher ambient temperatures during incubation were later associated with longer wing lengths in nestlings, particularly in 2011. Higher ambient temperatures and greater Se exposure posthatch were associated with longer wing lengths in 2011 while in 2012, blood Se concentrations were positively related to wing length irrespective of temperature. We found that unseasonably cold weather was associated with reduced hatching and fledging success among all colonies, but there was no interactive effect between element exposure and inclement weather. Given that blood Se concentrations in some nestlings exceeded the lower threshold of concern, and concentrations of Se in blood and Hg in eggs are not yet declining, future studies should continue to monitor exposure and effects on insectivorous wildlife in the area.