Determining the phylogenetic and phylogeographic origin of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H7N3) in Mexico

The Alarming Situation of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses in 2019-2023

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) have the potential to cause severe illness in wild birds, domestic poultry, and humans. The ongoing circulation of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs) has presented significant challenges to global poultry industry and public health in recent years. This study aimed to elucidate the circulation of HPAIVs during 2019 to 2023. Specifically, we assess the alarming global spread and continuous evolution of HPAIVs. Moreover, we discuss their transmission and prevention strategies to provide valuable references for future prevention and control measures against AIVs.

Phylogenetic Inference of the 2022 Highly Pathogenic H7N3 Avian Influenza Outbreak in Northern Mexico

The Mexican lineage H7N3 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) has persisted in Mexican poultry since its first isolation in 2012. To date, the detection of this virus has gradually expanded from the initial one state to 18 states in Mexico. Despite the HPAIV H7N3 outbreak occurring yearly, the transmission pathways have never been studied, disallowing the establishment of effective control measures. We used a phylogenetic approach to unravel the transmission pathways of 2022 H7N3 HPAIVs in the new outbreak areas in Northern Mexico. We present genetic data of H7N3 viruses produced from 18 poultry farms infected in the spring of 2022. Our results indicate that the virus responsible for the current outbreak in Northern Mexico evolved from the Mexican lineage H7N3 HPAIV discovered in 2012. In the current outbreak, we identified five clusters of infection with four noticeably different genetic backgrounds. It is a cluster IV-like virus that was transmitted into one northern state causing an outbreak, then spreading to another neighboring northern state, possibly via a human-mediated mechanical transmission mechanism. The long-distance transmission event highlights the necessity for the more rigorous enforcement of biosafety measures in outbreaks. Additionally, we examined the evolutionary processes shaping the viral genetic and antigenic diversities. It is imperative to enhance active surveillance to include birds, the environment, and humans to detect HPAI in domestic poultry at an earlier point and eliminate it.

Evolution of the North American Lineage H7 Avian Influenza Viruses in Association with H7 Virus's Introduction to Poultry

The incursions of H7 subtype low-pathogenicity avian influenza virus (LPAIV) from wild birds into poultry and its mutations to highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) have been an ongoing concern in North America. Since 2000, 10 phylogenetically distinct H7 virus outbreaks from wild birds have been detected in poultry, six of which mutated to HPAIV. To study the molecular evolution of the H7 viruses that occurs when changing hosts from wild birds to poultry, we performed analyses of the North American H7 hemagglutinin (HA) genes to identify amino acid changes as the virus circulated in wild birds from 2000 to 2019. Then, we analyzed recurring HA amino acid changes and gene constellations of the viruses that spread from wild birds to poultry. We found six HA amino acid changes occurring during wild bird circulation and 10 recurring changes after the spread to poultry. Eight of the changes were in and around the HA antigenic sites, three of which were supported by positive selection. Viruses from each H7 outbreak had a unique genotype, with no specific genetic group associated with poultry outbreaks or mutation to HPAIV. However, the genotypes of the H7 viruses in poultry outbreaks tended to contain minor genetic groups less observed in wild bird H7 viruses, suggesting either a biased sampling of wild bird AIVs or a tendency of having reassortment with minor genetic groups prior to the virus's introduction to poultry. IMPORTANCE Wild bird-origin H7 subtype avian influenza viruses are a constant threat to commercial poultry, both directly by the disease they cause and indirectly through trade restrictions that can be imposed when the virus is detected in poultry. It is important to understand the genetic basis of why the North American lineage H7 viruses have repeatedly crossed the species barrier from wild birds to poultry. We examined the amino acid changes in the H7 viruses associated with poultry outbreaks and tried to determine gene reassortment related to poultry adaptation and mutations to HPAIV. The findings in this study increase the understanding of the evolutionary pathways of wild bird AIV before infecting poultry and the HA changes associated with adaptation of the virus in poultry.

Spatiotemporal reconstruction and transmission dynamics during the 2016-17 H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic in Italy

Effective control of avian diseases in domestic populations requires understanding of the transmission dynamics facilitating viral emergence and spread. In 2016-17, Italy experienced a significant avian influenza epidemic caused by a highly pathogenic A(H5N8) virus, which affected domestic premises housing around 2.7 million birds, primarily in the north-eastern regions with the highest density of poultry farms (Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna and Veneto). We perform integrated analyses of genetic, spatiotemporal and host data within a Bayesian phylogenetic framework. Using continuous and discrete phylogeography, we estimate the locations of movements responsible for the spread and persistence of the epidemic. The information derived from these analyses on rates of transmission between regions through time can be used to assess the success of control measures. Using an approach based on phylogenetic-temporal distances between domestic cases, we infer the presence of cryptic wild bird-mediated transmission, information that can be used to complement existing epidemiological methods for distinguishing transmission within the domestic population from incursions across the wildlife-domestic interface, a common challenge in veterinary epidemiology. Spatiotemporal reconstruction of the epidemic reveals a highly skewed distribution of virus movements with a high proportion of shorter distance local movements interspersed with occasional long-distance dispersal events associated with wild birds. We also show how such inference be used to identify possible instances of human-mediated movements where distances between phylogenetically linked domestic cases are unusually high.

Characterization of commercial poultry farms in Mexico: Towards a better understanding of biosecurity practices and antibiotic usage patterns

Mexico is one of the world’s major poultry producing countries. Two significant challenges currently facing the poultry industry are the responsible and judicious use of antimicrobials, and the potential occurrence of infectious disease outbreaks. For example, repeated outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H7N3 have occurred in poultry since its first detection in Mexico in 2012. Both of these challenges can be addressed through good husbandry practices and the application of on-farm biosecurity measures. The aims of this study were: (i) to assess the biosecurity measures practiced across different types of poultry farms in Mexico, and (ii) to collect information regarding antimicrobial usage. A cross-sectional study was carried out through on-farm interviews on 43 poultry farms. A multiple correspondence analysis was performed to characterize the farms based on their pattern of biosecurity practices and antimicrobial usage. Three clusters of farms were identified using an agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis. In each cluster, a specific farm type was predominant. The biosecurity measures that significantly differentiated the visited farms, thus allowing their clusterization, were: the use of personal protective equipment (e.g. face masks, hair caps, and eye protection), the requirement for a hygiene protocol before and after entering the farm, the use of exclusive working clothes by staff and visitors, footbath presence at the barn entrance, and the mortality disposal strategy. The more stringent the biosecurity measures on farms within a cluster, the fewer the farms that used antimicrobials. Farms with more biosecurity breaches used antimicrobials considered critically important for public health. These findings could be helpful to understand how to guide strategies to reinforce compliance with biosecurity practices identified as critical according to the farm type. We conclude by providing certain recommendations to improve on-farm biosecurity measures.

The Molecular Epidemiology and Transmission Dynamics of HIV Type 1 in a General Population Cohort in Uganda

The General Population Cohort (GPC) in south-western Uganda has a low HIV-1 incidence rate (<1%). However, new infections continue to emerge. In this research, 3796 HIV-1 pol sequences (GPC: n = 1418, non-GPC sites: n = 1223, Central Uganda: n = 1010 and Eastern Uganda: n = 145) generated between 2003–2015 were analysed using phylogenetic methods with demographic data to understand HIV-1 transmission in this cohort and inform the epidemic response. HIV-1 subtype A1 was the most prevalent strain in the GPC area (GPC and non-GPC sites) (39.8%), central (45.9%) and eastern (52.4%) Uganda. However, in the GPC alone, subtype D was the predominant subtype (39.1%). Of the 524 transmission clusters identified by Cluster Picker, all large clusters (≥5 individuals, n = 8) involved individuals from the GPC. In a multivariate analysis, clustering was strongly associated with being female (adjusted Odds Ratio, aOR = 1.28; 95% CI, 1.06–1.54), being >25 years (aOR = 1.52; 95% CI, 1.16–2.0) and being a resident in the GPC (aOR = 6.90; 95% CI, 5.22–9.21). Phylogeographic analysis showed significant viral dissemination (Bayes Factor test, BF > 3) from the GPC without significant viral introductions (BF < 3) into the GPC. The findings suggest localized HIV-1 transmission in the GPC. Intensifying geographically focused combination interventions in the GPC would contribute towards controlling HIV-1 infections.

Incorporating heterogeneous sampling probabilities in continuous phylogeographic inference - Application to H5N1 spread in the Mekong region

MOTIVATION

The potentially low precision associated with the geographic origin of sampled sequences represents an important limitation for spatially explicit (i.e. continuous) phylogeographic inference of fast-evolving pathogens such as RNA viruses. A substantial proportion of publicly available sequences is geo-referenced at broad spatial scale such as the administrative unit of origin, rather than more precise locations (e.g. geographic coordinates). Most frequently, such sequences are either discarded prior to continuous phylogeographic inference or arbitrarily assigned to the geographic coordinates of the centroid of their administrative area of origin for lack of a better alternative.

RESULTS

We here implement and describe a new approach that allows to incorporate heterogeneous prior sampling probabilities over a geographic area. External data, such as outbreak locations, are used to specify these prior sampling probabilities over a collection of sub-polygons. We apply this new method to the analysis of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 clade data in the Mekong region. Our method allows to properly include, in continuous phylogeographic analyses, H5N1 sequences that are only associated with large administrative areas of origin and assign them with more accurate locations. Finally, we use continuous phylogeographic reconstructions to analyse the dispersal dynamics of different H5N1 clades and investigate the impact of environmental factors on lineage dispersal velocities.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

Our new method allowing heterogeneous sampling priors for continuous phylogeographic inference is implemented in the open-source multi-platform software package BEAST 1.10.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

A brief history of bird flu

In 1918, a strain of influenza A virus caused a human pandemic resulting in the deaths of 50 million people. A century later, with the advent of sequencing technology and corresponding phylogenetic methods, we know much more about the origins, evolution and epidemiology of influenza epidemics. Here we review the history of avian influenza viruses through the lens of their genetic makeup: from their relationship to human pandemic viruses, starting with the 1918 H1N1 strain, through to the highly pathogenic epidemics in birds and zoonoses up to 2018. We describe the genesis of novel influenza A virus strains by reassortment and evolution in wild and domestic bird populations, as well as the role of wild bird migration in their long-range spread. The emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses, and the zoonotic incursions of avian H5 and H7 viruses into humans over the last couple of decades are also described. The threat of a new avian influenza virus causing a human pandemic is still present today, although control in domestic avian populations can minimize the risk to human health.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’.

Waterfowl occurrence and residence time as indicators of H5 and H7 avian influenza in North American Poultry

Avian influenza (AI) affects wild aquatic birds and poses hazards to human health, food security, and wildlife conservation globally. Accordingly, there is a recognized need for new methods and tools to help quantify the dynamic interaction between wild bird hosts and commercial poultry. Using satellite-marked waterfowl, we applied Bayesian joint hierarchical modeling to concurrently model species distributions, residency times, migration timing, and disease occurrence probability under an integrated animal movement and disease distribution modeling framework. Our results indicate that migratory waterfowl are positively related to AI occurrence over North America such that as waterfowl occurrence probability or residence time increase at a given location, so too does the chance of a commercial poultry AI outbreak. Analyses also suggest that AI occurrence probability is greatest during our observed waterfowl northward migration, and less during the southward migration. Methodologically, we found that when modeling disparate facets of disease systems at the wildlife-agriculture interface, it is essential that multiscale spatial patterns be addressed to avoid mistakenly inferring a disease process or disease-environment relationship from a pattern evaluated at the improper spatial scale. The study offers important insights into migratory waterfowl ecology and AI disease dynamics that aid in better preparing for future outbreaks.

Rapid evolution of Mexican H7N3 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses in poultry

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus subtype H7N3 has been circulating in poultry in Mexico since 2012 and vaccination has been used to control the disease. In this study, eight Mexican H7N3 HPAI viruses from 2015–2017 were isolated and fully sequenced. No evidence of reassortment was detected with other avian influenza (AI) viruses, but phylogenetic analyses show divergence of all eight gene segments into three genetic clusters by 2015, with 94.94 to 98.78 percent nucleotide homology of the HA genes when compared to the index virus from 2012. The HA protein of viruses from each cluster showed a different number of basic amino acids (n = 5–7) in the cleavage site, and six different patterns at the predicted N-glycosylation sites. Comparison of the sequences of the Mexican lineage H7N3 HPAI viruses and American ancestral wild bird AI viruses to characterize the virus evolutionary dynamics showed that the nucleotide substitution rates in PB2, PB1, PA, HA, NP, and NS genes greatly increased once the virus was introduced into poultry. The global nonsynonymous and synonymous ratios imply strong purifying selection driving the evolution of the virus. Forty-nine positively selected sites out of 171 nonsynonymous mutations were identified in the Mexican H7N3 HPAI viruses, including 7 amino acid changes observed in higher proportion in North American poultry origin AI viruses isolates than in wild bird-origin viruses. Continuous monitoring and molecular characterization of the H7N3 HPAI virus is important for better understanding of the virus evolutionary dynamics and further improving control measures including vaccination.

Loss of Fitness of Mexican H7N3 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus in Mallards after Circulating in Chickens

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus subtype H7N3 have been occurring in commercial chickens in Mexico since its first introduction in 2012. In order to determine changes in virus pathogenicity and adaptation in avian species, three H7N3 HPAI viruses from 2012, 2015, and 2016 were evaluated in chickens and mallards. All three viruses caused high mortality in chickens when given at medium to high doses and replicated similarly. No mortality or clinical signs and similar infectivity were observed in mallards inoculated with the 2012 and 2016 viruses. However, the 2012 H7N3 HPAI virus replicated well in mallards and transmitted to contacts, whereas the 2016 virus replicated poorly and did not transmit to contacts, which indicates that the 2016 virus is less adapted to mallards. In vitro, the 2016 virus grew slower and to lower titers than did the 2012 virus in duck fibroblast cells. Full-genome sequencing showed 115 amino acid differences between the 2012 and the 2016 viruses, with some of these changes previously associated with changes in replication in avian species, including hemagglutinin (HA) A125T, nucleoprotein (NP) M105V, and NP S377N. In conclusion, as the Mexican H7N3 HPAI virus has passaged through large populations of chickens in a span of several years and has retained its high pathogenicity for chickens, it has decreased in fitness in mallards, which could limit the potential spread of this HPAI virus by waterfowl.IMPORTANCE Not much is known about changes in host adaptation of avian influenza (AI) viruses in birds after long-term circulation in chickens or other terrestrial poultry. Although the origin of AI viruses affecting poultry is wild aquatic birds, the role of these birds in further dispersal of poultry-adapted AI viruses is not clear. Previously, we showed that HPAI viruses isolated early from poultry outbreaks could still infect and transmit well in mallards. In this study, we demonstrate that the Mexican H7N3 HPAI virus after four years of circulation in chickens replicates poorly and does not transmit in mallards but remains highly pathogenic in chickens. This information on changes in host adaptation is important for understanding the epidemiology of AI viruses and the role that wild waterfowl may play in disseminating viruses adapted to terrestrial poultry.

Phylogeography of HIV-1 suggests that Ugandan fishing communities are a sink for, not a source of, virus from general populations

Although fishing communities (FCs) in Uganda are disproportionately affected by HIV-1 relative to the general population (GP), the transmission dynamics are not completely understood. We earlier found most HIV-1 transmissions to occur within FCs of Lake Victoria. Here, we test the hypothesis that HIV-1 transmission in FCs is isolated from networks in the GP. We used phylogeography to reconstruct the geospatial viral migration patterns in 8 FCs and 2 GP cohorts and a Bayesian phylogenetic inference in BEAST v1.8.4 to analyse the temporal dynamics of HIV-1 transmission. Subtype A1 (pol region) was most prevalent in the FCs (115, 45.1%) and GP (177, 50.4%). More recent HIV transmission pairs from FCs were found at a genetic distance (GD) <1.5% than in the GP (Fisher’s exact test, p = 0.001). The mean time depth for pairs was shorter in FCs (5 months) than in the GP (4 years). Phylogeographic analysis showed strong support for viral migration from the GP to FCs without evidence of substantial viral dissemination to the GP. This suggests that FCs are a sink for, not a source of, virus strains from the GP. Targeted interventions in FCs should be extended to include the neighbouring GP for effective epidemic control.

Stability of retroviral pseudotypes carrying the hemagglutinin of avian influenza viruses under various storage conditions

Retroviral pseudotypes are broadly used as safe instruments to mimic the structure and surface of highly pathogenic viruses. They have been employed for the discovery of new drugs, as diagnostic tools in vaccine studies, and part of serological assays. Because of their widespread use in research and their potential as tools for quality control, it is important to know their shelf life, stability, and best storage conditions. In this study, we produced pseudotypes carrying the lacZ reporter gene and the hemagglutinin (HA) of avian influenza virus subtypes H5 and H7 to investigate their stability under various storage conditions. We produced pseudotypes with titers of approximately 10⁶ RLU/mL, which decreased to 10⁵-10⁶ RLU/mL after short-term storage at 4 °C (up to 4 weeks). Stability was maintained after long-term storage at -20 °C (up to 12 months), even under storage variations such as freeze-thaw cycles. We conclude that, although the titers decreased by 1 log₁₀ under the different storage conditions, the remaining titers can be readily applicable in many techniques, such as neutralization assays. These findings show that large quantities of retroviral pseudotypes can be safely stored for short- or long-term use, allowing standardization and reduced variation in assays involving retroviral pseudotypes.

Geographic transmission hubs of the 2009 influenza pandemic in the United States

A key issue in infectious disease epidemiology is to identify and predict geographic sites of epidemic establishment that contribute to onward spread, especially in the context of invasion waves of emerging pathogens. Conventional wisdom suggests that these sites are likely to be in densely-populated, well-connected areas. For pandemic influenza, however, epidemiological data have not been available at a fine enough geographic resolution to test this assumption. Here, we make use of fine-scale influenza-like illness incidence data derived from electronic medical claims records gathered from 834 3-digit ZIP (postal) codes across the US to identify the key geographic establishment sites, or "hubs", of the autumn wave of the 2009 A/H1N1pdm influenza pandemic in the United States. A mechanistic spatial transmission model is fit to epidemic onset times inferred from the data. Hubs are identified by tracing the most probable transmission routes back to a likely first establishment site. Four hubs are identified: two in the southeastern US, one in the central valley of California, and one in the midwestern US. According to the model, 75% of the 834 observed ZIP-level outbreaks in the US were seeded by these four hubs or their epidemiological descendants. Counter-intuitively, the pandemic hubs do not coincide with large and well-connected cities, indicating that factors beyond population density and travel volume are necessary to explain the establishment sites of the major autumn wave of the pandemic. Geographic regions are identified where infection can be statistically traced back to a hub, providing a testable prediction of the outbreak's phylogeography. Our method therefore provides an important way forward to reconcile spatial diffusion patterns inferred from epidemiological surveillance data and pathogen sequence data.

The Structured Coalescent and Its Approximations

Phylogeographic methods can help reveal the movement of genes between populations of organisms. This has been widely done to quantify pathogen movement between different host populations, the migration history of humans, and the geographic spread of languages or gene flow between species using the location or state of samples alongside sequence data. Phylogenies therefore offer insights into migration processes not available from classic epidemiological or occurrence data alone. Phylogeographic methods have however several known shortcomings. In particular, one of the most widely used methods treats migration the same as mutation, and therefore does not incorporate information about population demography. This may lead to severe biases in estimated migration rates for data sets where sampling is biased across populations. The structured coalescent on the other hand allows us to coherently model the migration and coalescent process, but current implementations struggle with complex data sets due to the need to infer ancestral migration histories. Thus, approximations to the structured coalescent, which integrate over all ancestral migration histories, have been developed. However, the validity and robustness of these approximations remain unclear. We present an exact numerical solution to the structured coalescent that does not require the inference of migration histories. Although this solution is computationally unfeasible for large data sets, it clarifies the assumptions of previously developed approximate methods and allows us to provide an improved approximation to the structured coalescent. We have implemented these methods in BEAST2, and we show how these methods compare under different scenarios.

Avian influenza in Latin America: A systematic review of serological and molecular studies from 2000-2015

Avian influenza or bird flu is a highly contagious acute viral disease that can occur in epidemics and cross-border forms in poultry and wild birds. The characteristics of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) allow the emergence of new viral variants, some with zoonotic and pandemic potential. AIVs have been identified in Latin America; however, there is a lack of understanding of these viruses at the regional level. We performed a systematic literature review on serological or molecular evidence of AIVs circulation in Latin America. Methods were designed based on the PRISMA and STROME guidelines. Only peer-reviewed studies published between 2000 to 2015 and data was analysed based on country, viral subtype, avian species, and phylogenetic origins. From 271 studies initially found only twenty-six met our inclusion criteria. Evidence of AIVs infection was found in most Latin American countries, with Mexico as the country with the largest number of conducted studies and reported cases during the period analysed, followed by Chile and Argentina. Most of the AIVs were early reported through surveillance systems and at least 14 different subtypes of influenza viruses were reported in birds, and the presence of both low (92.9%) and high (7.1%) pathogenic AIVs was shown in Latin America. Of the reported AIVs in Latin America, 43.7% belong to migratory birds, 28.1% to local wild birds, and 28.1% to poultry. The migratory bird population mainly comprises families belonging to the orders Anseriformes and Charadriformes. We highlight the importance of epidemiological surveillance systems and the possible role of different migratory birds in the transmission of AIVs within the Americas. Our findings demonstrate the limited information on AIVs in Latin America and highlight the need of more studies on AIVs at the regional level, particularly those focused on identifying the endemic subtypes in regional wild birds.

Phylogenetic and geographic patterns of bartonella host shifts among bat species

The influence of factors contributing to parasite diversity in individual hosts and communities are increasingly studied, but there has been less focus on the dominant processes leading to parasite diversification. Using bartonella infections in bats as a model system, we explored the influence of three processes that can contribute to bartonella diversification and lineage formation: (1) spatial correlation in the invasion and transmission of bartonella among bats (phylogeography); (2) divergent adaptation of bartonellae to bat hosts and arthropod vectors; and (3) evolutionary codivergence between bats and bartonellae. Using a combination of global fit techniques and ancestral state reconstruction, we found that codivergence appears to be the dominant process leading to diversification of bartonella in bats, with lineages of bartonellae corresponding to separate bat suborders, superfamilies, and families. Furthermore, we estimated the rates at which bartonellae shift bat hosts across taxonomic scales (suborders, superfamilies, and families) and found that transition rates decrease with increasing taxonomic distance, providing support for a mechanism that can contribute to the observed evolutionary congruence between bats and their associated bartonellae. While bartonella diversification is associated with host sympatry, the influence of this factor is minor compared to the influence of codivergence and there is a clear indication that some bartonella lineages span multiple regions, particularly between Africa and Southeast Asia. Divergent adaptation of bartonellae to bat hosts and arthropod vectors is apparent and can dilute the overall pattern of codivergence, however its importance in the formation of Bartonella lineages in bats is small relative to codivergence. We argue that exploring all three of these processes yields a more complete understanding of bat-bartonella relationships and the evolution of the genus Bartonella, generally. Application of these methods to other infectious bacteria and viruses could uncover common processes that lead to parasite diversification and the formation of host-parasite relationships.

Genetic Characterization of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N8) Virus from Domestic Ducks, England, November 2014

Genetic sequences of a highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N8) virus in England have high homology to those detected in mainland Europe and Asia during 2014. Genetic characterization suggests this virus is an avian-adapted virus without specific affinity for zoonoses. Spatio-temporal detections of H5N8 imply a role for wild birds in virus spread.

New Routes to Phylogeography: A Bayesian Structured Coalescent Approximation

Phylogeographic methods aim to infer migration trends and the history of sampled lineages from genetic data. Applications of phylogeography are broad, and in the context of pathogens include the reconstruction of transmission histories and the origin and emergence of outbreaks. Phylogeographic inference based on bottom-up population genetics models is computationally expensive, and as a result faster alternatives based on the evolution of discrete traits have become popular. In this paper, we show that inference of migration rates and root locations based on discrete trait models is extremely unreliable and sensitive to biased sampling. To address this problem, we introduce BASTA (BAyesian STructured coalescent Approximation), a new approach implemented in BEAST2 that combines the accuracy of methods based on the structured coalescent with the computational efficiency required to handle more than just few populations. We illustrate the potentially severe implications of poor model choice for phylogeographic analyses by investigating the zoonotic transmission of Ebola virus. Whereas the structured coalescent analysis correctly infers that successive human Ebola outbreaks have been seeded by a large unsampled non-human reservoir population, the discrete trait analysis implausibly concludes that undetected human-to-human transmission has allowed the virus to persist over the past four decades. As genomics takes on an increasingly prominent role informing the control and prevention of infectious diseases, it will be vital that phylogeographic inference provides robust insights into transmission history.

When studying infectious diseases it is often important to understand how germs spread from location-to-location, person-to-person, or even one part of the body to another. Using phylogeographic methods, it is possible to recover the history of spread of pathogens (or other organisms) by studying their genetic material. Here we reveal that some popular, fast phylogeographic methods are inaccurate, and we introduce a new more reliable method to address the problem. By comparing different phylogeographic methods based on principled population models and fast alternatives, we found that different approaches can give diametrically opposed results, and we offer concrete examples in the context of the ongoing Ebola outbreak in West Africa and the world-wide outbreaks of Avian Influenza Virus and Tomato Yellow Leaf Curl Virus. We found that the most popular phylogeographic method often produces completely inaccurate conclusions. One of the reasons for its popularity has been its computational speed, which has allowed users to analyse large genetic datasets with complex models. More accurate approaches have until now been considerably slower, and therefore we propose a new method called BASTA that achieves good accuracy in a reasonable time. We are relying more and more on genetic sequencing to learn about the origin and spread of infections, and as this role continues to grow, it will be essential to use accurate phylogeographic methods when designing policies to prevent or curb the spread of disease.

Influenza A Virus Surveillance in Waterfowl in Missouri, USA, 2005-2013

Missouri, United States, is located within the Mississippi Migratory Bird Flyway where wild waterfowl stop to feed and rest during migration and, weather permitting, to overwinter. Historically, Missouri has experienced sporadic influenza A virus (IAV) outbreaks in poultry and commercial swine. The introduction of IAVs from wild, migratory waterfowl is one possible source for the IAV, IAV genomic segments, or both involved in these outbreaks in key agricultural species. During 2005 through 2013, 3984 cloacal swabs were collected from hunter-harvested waterfowl in Missouri as part of an active IAV surveillance effort. Twenty-four avian species were represented in the sample population and 108 (2.7%) of the samples tested positive for IAV recovery. These IAV isolates represented 12 HA and nine NA subtypes and at least 27 distinct HA-NA combinations. An H14 IAV isolate recovered in Missouri during the sample period provided evidence for further establishment of the H14 subtype in North American wild waterfowl and gave proof that the previously rare subtype is more genetically diverse than previously detected. The present surveillance effort also produced IAV isolates that were genomically linked to the highly pathogenic H7N3 IAV strain that emerged in 2012 and caused severe disease in Mexico's domestic poultry. The presence of antigenically diverse IAV's circulating in wild waterfowl in the vicinity of commercial poultry and swine, along with the association of several wild-bird-lineage IAV genomic segments in viruses infecting poultry in North America, justifies continued attention to biosecurity efforts in food animal production systems and ongoing active IAV surveillance in wild birds.

Spread and persistence of influenza A viruses in waterfowl hosts in the North American Mississippi migratory flyway

While geographic distance often restricts the spread of pathogens via hosts, this barrier may be compromised when host species are mobile. Migratory waterfowl in the order Anseriformes are important reservoir hosts for diverse populations of avian-origin influenza A viruses (AIVs) and are assumed to spread AIVs during their annual continental-scale migrations. However, support for this hypothesis is limited, and it is rarely tested using data from comprehensive surveillance efforts incorporating both the temporal and spatial aspects of host migratory patterns. We conducted intensive AIV surveillance of waterfowl using the North American Mississippi Migratory Flyway (MMF) over three autumn migratory seasons. Viral isolates (n = 297) from multiple host species were sequenced and analyzed for patterns of gene dispersal between northern staging and southern wintering locations. Using a phylogenetic and nucleotide identity framework, we observed a larger amount of gene dispersal within this flyway rather than between the other three longitudinally identified North American flyways. Across seasons, we observed patterns of regional persistence of diversity for each genomic segment, along with limited survival of dispersed AIV gene lineages. Reassortment increased with both time and distance, resulting in transient AIV constellations. This study shows that within the MMF, AIV gene flow favors spread along the migratory corridor within a season, and also that intensive surveillance during bird migration is important for identifying virus dispersal on time scales relevant to pandemic responsiveness. In addition, this study indicates that comprehensive monitoring programs to capture AIV diversity are critical for providing insight into AIV evolution and ecology in a major natural reservoir.

IMPORTANCE

Migratory birds are a reservoir for antigenic and genetic diversity of influenza A viruses (AIVs) and are implicated in the spread of virus diversity that has contributed to previous pandemic events. Evidence for dispersal of avian-origin AIVs by migratory birds is rarely examined on temporal scales relevant to pandemic or panzootic threats. Therefore, characterizing AIV movement by hosts within a migratory season is important for implementing effective surveillance strategies. We conducted surveillance following birds along a major North American migratory route and observed that within a migratory season, AIVs rapidly reassorted and gene lineages were dispersed primarily within the migratory corridor. Patterns of regional persistence were observed across seasons for each gene segment. We show that dispersal of AIV gene lineages by migratory birds occurs quickly along migratory routes and that surveillance for AIVs threatening human and animal health should focus attention on these routes.