Predictive Ability of Laboratory Indices for Liver Fibrosis in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C after the Eradication of Hepatitis C Virus

Liver fibrosis stage based on the four factors (FIB-4) score or Forns index in adults with chronic hepatitis C

BACKGROUND

The presence and severity of liver fibrosis are important prognostic variables when evaluating people with chronic hepatitis C (CHC). Although liver biopsy remains the reference standard, non-invasive serological markers, such as the four factors (FIB-4) score and the Forns index, can also be used to stage liver fibrosis.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the diagnostic accuracy of the FIB-4 score and Forns index in staging liver fibrosis in people with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) virus, using liver biopsy as the reference standard (primary objective). To compare the diagnostic accuracy of these tests for staging liver fibrosis in people with CHC and explore potential sources of heterogeneity (secondary objectives).

SEARCH METHODS

We used standard Cochrane search methods for diagnostic accuracy studies (search date: 13 April 2022).

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included diagnostic cross-sectional or case-control studies that evaluated the performance of the FIB-4 score, the Forns index, or both, against liver biopsy, in the assessment of liver fibrosis in participants with CHC. We imposed no language restrictions. We excluded studies in which: participants had causes of liver disease besides CHC; participants had successfully been treated for CHC; or the interval between the index test and liver biopsy exceeded six months.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently extracted data. We performed meta-analyses using the bivariate model and calculated summary estimates. We evaluated the performance of both tests for three target conditions: significant fibrosis or worse (METAVIR stage ≥ F2); severe fibrosis or worse (METAVIR stage ≥ F3); and cirrhosis (METAVIR stage F4). We restricted the meta-analysis to studies reporting cut-offs in a specified range (+/-0.15 for FIB-4; +/-0.3 for Forns index) around the original validated cut-offs (1.45 and 3.25 for FIB-4; 4.2 and 6.9 for Forns index). We calculated the percentage of people who would receive an indeterminate result (i.e. above the rule-out threshold but below the rule-in threshold) for each index test/cut-off/target condition combination.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 84 studies (with a total of 107,583 participants) from 28 countries, published between 2002 and 2021, in the qualitative synthesis. Of the 84 studies, 82 (98%) were cross-sectional diagnostic accuracy studies with cohort-based sampling, and the remaining two (2%) were case-control studies. All studies were conducted in referral centres. Our main meta-analysis included 62 studies (100,605 participants). Overall, two studies (2%) had low risk of bias, 23 studies (27%) had unclear risk of bias, and 59 studies (73%) had high risk of bias. We judged 13 studies (15%) to have applicability concerns regarding participant selection. FIB-4 score The FIB-4 score's low cut-off (1.45) is designed to rule out people with at least severe fibrosis (≥ F3). Thirty-nine study cohorts (86,907 participants) yielded a summary sensitivity of 81.1% (95% confidence interval (CI) 75.6% to 85.6%), specificity of 62.3% (95% CI 57.4% to 66.9%), and negative likelihood ratio (LR-) of 0.30 (95% CI 0.24 to 0.38). The FIB-4 score's high cut-off (3.25) is designed to rule in people with at least severe fibrosis (≥ F3). Twenty-four study cohorts (81,350 participants) yielded a summary sensitivity of 41.4% (95% CI 33.0% to 50.4%), specificity of 92.6% (95% CI 89.5% to 94.9%), and positive likelihood ratio (LR+) of 5.6 (95% CI 4.4 to 7.1). Using the FIB-4 score to assess severe fibrosis and applying both cut-offs together, 30.9% of people would obtain an indeterminate result, requiring further investigations. We report the summary accuracy estimates for the FIB-4 score when used for assessing significant fibrosis (≥ F2) and cirrhosis (F4) in the main review text. Forns index The Forns index's low cut-off (4.2) is designed to rule out people with at least significant fibrosis (≥ F2). Seventeen study cohorts (4354 participants) yielded a summary sensitivity of 84.7% (95% CI 77.9% to 89.7%), specificity of 47.9% (95% CI 38.6% to 57.3%), and LR- of 0.32 (95% CI 0.25 to 0.41). The Forns index's high cut-off (6.9) is designed to rule in people with at least significant fibrosis (≥ F2). Twelve study cohorts (3245 participants) yielded a summary sensitivity of 34.1% (95% CI 26.4% to 42.8%), specificity of 97.3% (95% CI 92.9% to 99.0%), and LR+ of 12.5 (95% CI 5.7 to 27.2). Using the Forns index to assess significant fibrosis and applying both cut-offs together, 44.8% of people would obtain an indeterminate result, requiring further investigations. We report the summary accuracy estimates for the Forns index when used for assessing severe fibrosis (≥ F3) and cirrhosis (F4) in the main text. Comparing FIB-4 to Forns index There were insufficient studies to meta-analyse the performance of the Forns index for diagnosing severe fibrosis and cirrhosis. Therefore, comparisons of the two tests' performance were not possible for these target conditions. For diagnosing significant fibrosis and worse, there were no significant differences in their performance when using the high cut-off. The Forns index performed slightly better than FIB-4 when using the low/rule-out cut-off (relative sensitivity 1.12, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.25; P = 0.0573; relative specificity 0.69, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.84; P = 0.002).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Both the FIB-4 score and the Forns index may be considered for the initial assessment of people with CHC. The FIB-4 score's low cut-off (1.45) can be used to rule out people with at least severe fibrosis (≥ F3) and cirrhosis (F4). The Forns index's high cut-off (6.9) can be used to diagnose people with at least significant fibrosis (≥ F2). We judged most of the included studies to be at unclear or high risk of bias. The overall quality of the body of evidence was low or very low, and more high-quality studies are needed. Our review only captured data from referral centres. Therefore, when generalising our results to a primary care population, the probability of false positives will likely be higher and false negatives will likely be lower. More research is needed in sub-Saharan Africa, since these tests may be of value in such resource-poor settings.

The Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) should replace the ROC AUC as the standard metric for assessing binary classification

Binary classification is a common task for which machine learning and computational statistics are used, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC) has become the common standard metric to evaluate binary classifications in most scientific fields. The ROC curve has true positive rate (also called sensitivity or recall) on the y axis and false positive rate on the x axis, and the ROC AUC can range from 0 (worst result) to 1 (perfect result). The ROC AUC, however, has several flaws and drawbacks. This score is generated including predictions that obtained insufficient sensitivity and specificity, and moreover it does not say anything about positive predictive value (also known as precision) nor negative predictive value (NPV) obtained by the classifier, therefore potentially generating inflated overoptimistic results. Since it is common to include ROC AUC alone without precision and negative predictive value, a researcher might erroneously conclude that their classification was successful. Furthermore, a given point in the ROC space does not identify a single confusion matrix nor a group of matrices sharing the same MCC value. Indeed, a given (sensitivity, specificity) pair can cover a broad MCC range, which casts doubts on the reliability of ROC AUC as a performance measure. In contrast, the Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) generates a high score in its [Formula: see text] interval only if the classifier scored a high value for all the four basic rates of the confusion matrix: sensitivity, specificity, precision, and negative predictive value. A high MCC (for example, MCC [Formula: see text] 0.9), moreover, always corresponds to a high ROC AUC, and not vice versa. In this short study, we explain why the Matthews correlation coefficient should replace the ROC AUC as standard statistic in all the scientific studies involving a binary classification, in all scientific fields.

Risk stratification of hepatocellular carcinoma incidence using a fibrosis-4-based prediction model in patients with chronic hepatitis C receiving antiviral therapy: a nationwide real-world Taiwanese cohort study

A total of 1,589 patients who had received interferon-based treatment were enrolled and analyzed for the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in a real-world nationwide Taiwanese chronic hepatitis C cohort (T-COACH). We aimed to stratify HCC risk by non-invasive fibrosis index-based risk model. Of 1589 patients, 1363 (85.8%) patients achieved sustained virological response (SVR). Patients with SVR had 1, 3, 5 and 10-year cumulative HCC incidence rates of 0.55%, 1.87%, 3.48% and 8.35%, respectively. A Cox proportional hazards model revealed that non-SVR (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.92, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.19-3.12, p = 0.008), diabetes mellitus (aHR: 2.11, 95% CI: 1.25-3.55, p = 0.005), and fibrosis (FIB)-4 at the end of follow-up (EOF; aHR: 5.60, 95% CI: 2.97-10.57, p < 0.0001) were independent predictors of HCC. Risk score models based on the three predictors were developed to predict HCC according to aHR. In model 1, the 10-year cumulative incidence rates of HCC were 43.35% in patients at high risk (score 9-10), 25.48% in those at intermediate risk (score 6-8), and 4.06% in those at low risk (score 3-5) of HCC. In model 2, the 10-year cumulative incidence rates of HCC were 39.64% in patients at high risk (at least two risk predictors), 19.12% in those at intermediate risk (with one risk predictor), and 2.52% in those at low risk (without any risk predictors) of HCC. The FIB-4-based prediction model at EOF could help stratify the risk of HCC in patients with chronic hepatitis C after antiviral treatment.

Absence of large portal collateral vessels is associated with spontaneous improvement of cirrhotic portal vein thrombosis

AIM

Portal vein thrombosis (PVT) is a major complication in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC). In some cases, PVT decreases spontaneously, but the factors that predict this are still not fully understood.

METHODS

This was a retrospective, multicenter study that included 77 consecutive patients with cirrhotic PVT. Forty-eight patients did not undergo anticoagulation and 29 patients did between the time of the first diagnosis of PVT and the follow-up radiological imaging undertaken 1-6 months later. A complete disappearance and 25% shrinkage of PVT was defined as complete remission (CR) and partial remission (PR), respectively. Portosystemic collateral vessels larger than 9 mm in diameter were defined as large collateral vessels.

RESULTS

Complete remission + PR was found in 37.5% of the anticoagulation-naïve patients. On univariate analysis, the absence of large collateral vessels, absence of PVT in the main trunk of the portal vein, a high platelet count, and a low FIB-4 index were significant factors associated with CR + PR. On multivariate analysis, the absence of large collateral vessels was the unique factor associated with CR + PR of PVT (odds ratio 5.9; 95% confidence interval, 1.73-20.1). The CR + PR rate for anticoagulated patients was 44.8%. However, no predictors for a good treatment effect of anticoagulation for PVT were identified.

CONCLUSIONS

Spontaneous improvement of PVT in patients with LC can be expected when large collateral vessels are absent. For these patients, the option of observing them without anticoagulation can be considered in expectation of spontaneous reduction of PVT.

Elastography as a predictor of liver cirrhosis complications after hepatitis C virus eradication in the era of direct-acting antivirals

Chronic inflammation due to hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection leads to liver fibrosis and rearrangement of liver tissue, which is responsible for the development of portal hypertension (PH) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The advent of direct-acting antiviral drugs has revolutionized the natural history of HCV infection, providing an overall eradication rate of over 90%. Despite a significant decrease after sustained virological response (SVR), the rate of HCC and liver-related complications is not completely eliminated in patients with advanced liver disease. Although the reasons are still unclear, cirrhosis itself has a residual risk for the development of HCC and other PH-related complications. Ultrasound elastography is a recently developed non-invasive technique for the assessment of liver fibrosis. Following the achievement of SVR, liver stiffness (LS) usually decreases, as a consequence of reduced inflammation and, possibly, fibrosis. Recent studies emphasized the application of LS assessment in the management of patients with SVR in order to define the risk for developing the complications of chronic liver disease (functional decompensation, gastrointestinal bleeding, HCC) and to optimize long-term prognostic outcomes in clinical practice.

Liver Fibrosis in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) Coinfection Before and After Sustained Virologic Response: What Is the Best Noninvasive Marker for Monitoring Regression?

BACKGROUND

Noninvasive markers of liver fibrosis such as aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio (APRI) and transient elastography (TE) have largely replaced liver biopsy for staging hepatitis C virus (HCV). As there is little longitudinal data, we compared changes in these markers before and after sustained virologic response (SVR) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-HCV coinfected patients.

METHODS

Participants from the Canadian Coinfection Cohort study who achieved SVR after a first treatment with either interferon/ribavirin or direct acting antivirals (DAAs), with at least 1 pre- and posttreatment fibrosis measure were selected. Changes in APRI or TE (DAA era only) were modeled using a generalized additive mixed model, assuming a gamma distribution and adjusting for sex, age at HCV acquisition, duration of HCV infection, and time-dependent body mass index, binge drinking, and detectable HIV RNA.

RESULTS

Of 1981 patients, 151 achieved SVR with interferon and 553 with DAAs; 94 and 382 met inclusion criteria, respectively. In the DAA era, APRI increased (0.03 units/year; 95% credible interval (CrI): -.05, .12) before, declined dramatically during, and then changed minimally (-0.03 units/year; 95% CrI: -.06, .01) after treatment. TE values, however, increased (0.74 kPa/year; 95% CrI: .36, 1.14) before treatment, changed little by the end of treatment, and then declined (-0.55 kPa/year; 95% CrI: -.80, -.31) after SVR.

CONCLUSIONS

TE should be the preferred noninvasive tool for monitoring fibrosis regression following cure. Future studies should assess the risk of liver-related outcomes such as hepatocellular carcinoma according to trajectories of fibrosis regression measured using TE to determine if and when it will become safe to discontinue screening.

Dynamic Evaluation of Liver Fibrosis to Assess the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis C Who Achieved Sustained Virologic Response

BACKGROUND

Liver fibrosis is an important risk factor for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after sustained virologic response (SVR) in patients with persistent hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. However, as the degree of liver fibrosis changes following the eradication of HCV after SVR, it is unclear whether the prediction of HCC development based on liver fibrosis at baseline remains valid.

METHODS

In 522 patients who achieved SVR by interferon-based anti-HCV therapy, the Fibrosis-4 Index for Liver Fibrosis (FIB-4 index) was updated annually by recalculation based on laboratory values after SVR. The incidence of HCC was reassessed annually based on the updated FIB-4 index.

RESULTS

The percentage of patients with mild liver fibrosis (FIB-4 index <1.45) increased annually after SVR, whereas the percentage of patients with advanced liver fibrosis (FIB-4 index ≥3.25) decreased. The incidences of HCC based on the FIB-4 index remained constant between the time of SVR and subsequent annual updates. No patients developed HCC after SVR if the FIB-4 index decreased to <1.45.

CONCLUSIONS

The FIB-4 index retained its predictive ability for the risk of HCC when recalculated after SVR, despite the decrease in patients with high FIB-4 index values. Dynamic assessment of the FIB-4 index can be useful in the surveillance of HCC after SVR. Patients with a FIB-4 index <1.45 did not develop HCC even by the regression from advanced fibrosis after SVR. Further studies will be necessary to confirm these findings, which may result in a decrease in the number of patients in whom surveillance is required.

Direct-acting antiviral therapy of chronic hepatitis C improves liver fibrosis, assessed by histological examination and laboratory markers

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

Direct-acting antiviral agents achieve sustained virological response in most chronic hepatitis C patients. However, histological responses are not consistent among all patients. We conducted an observational study to analyze the histological changes after direct-acting antiviral agent therapy.

METHODS

We recruited 220 patients who achieved sustained virological response after direct-acting antiviral agent. Histology was assessed by liver biopsy and laboratory indices including fibrosis-4 and aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index. Primary outcomes were change in the dynamic laboratory results. Secondary outcomes were histological changes on liver biopsy. We analyzed the factors predictive of histological regression.

RESULTS

The mean fibrosis-4 index decreased from 4.78 at baseline to 3.30, 3.31, 3.65, and 3.66 at week 4, 8, end of treatment, and 12 weeks after treatment, respectively (all p < 0.01). Mean aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index decreased from 1.62 at baseline to 0.61, 0.66, 0.64, and 0.82 at week 4, 8, end of treatment, and 12 weeks after treatment, respectively (all p < 0.01). Mean Histological Activity Index at baseline and post-treatment was 6.9 ± 1.9 and 5.0 ± 2.3. The METAVIR fibrosis scores improved in 61.9% of the patients. We compared patients who achieved fibrosis-regression with the non-regression group. There was no significant difference in the baseline host/virological factors between the groups.

CONCLUSION

Reversal of liver inflammation and fibrosis was achieved in a significant number of patients who received direct-acting antiviral agent. No baseline host or virological factor was predictive of histological regression after antiviral treatment.

Advances in non-invasive assessment of hepatic fibrosis

Liver fibrosis should be assessed in all individuals with chronic liver disease as it predicts the risk of future liver-related morbidity and thus need for treatment, monitoring and surveillance. Non-invasive fibrosis tests (NITs) overcome many limitations of liver biopsy and are now routinely incorporated into specialist clinical practice. Simple serum-based tests (eg, Fibrosis Score 4, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease Fibrosis Score) consist of readily available biochemical surrogates and clinical risk factors for liver fibrosis (eg, age and sex). These have been extensively validated across a spectrum of chronic liver diseases, however, tend to be less accurate than more 'complex' serum tests, which incorporate direct measures of fibrogenesis or fibrolysis (eg, hyaluronic acid, N-terminal propeptide of type three collagen). Elastography methods quantify liver stiffness as a marker of fibrosis and are more accurate than simple serum NITs, however, suffer increasing rates of unreliability with increasing obesity. MR elastography appears more accurate than sonographic elastography and is not significantly impacted by obesity but is costly with limited availability. NITs are valuable for excluding advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis, however, are not sufficiently predictive when used in isolation. Combining serum and elastography techniques increases diagnostic accuracy and can be used as screening and confirmatory tests, respectively. Unfortunately, NITs have not yet been demonstrated to accurately reflect fibrosis change in response to treatment, limiting their role in disease monitoring. However, recent studies have demonstrated lipidomic, proteomic and gut microbiome profiles as well as microRNA signatures to be promising techniques for fibrosis assessment in the future.

Subgroup analysis of the predictive ability of aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) for assessing hepatic fibrosis among patients with chronic hepatitis C

BACKGROUND

There are many laboratory indices to assess liver fibrosis. Aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index have been used as well-known serum markers of liver fibrosis. With the increasing use of non-invasive fibrosis assessment, it is important to recognize the limitations of these tests. The factors influencing the diagnostic accuracy to evaluate liver fibrosis are not well-established. This study aimed to perform a subgroup analysis of the predictive ability of laboratory indices.

METHODS

Overall, 113 patients with chronic hepatitis C infection who underwent liver biopsy were retrospectively examined. The histological assessment of liver fibrosis was performed using the METAVIR scoring system, and the values of several laboratory tests were also evaluated on the same day. We categorized our study population by treatment status, body mass index (BMI), and age.

RESULTS

The two laboratory indices APRI and FIB-4 index could predict advanced (F3-4) liver fibrosis and cirrhosis (F4), with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) > 0.8 and accuracy >70%. The AUROCs and accuracies were higher among patients with sustained virological response (SVR) than among those without SVR. A higher predictive ability was also observed among patients with BMI <25 kg/m². Age did not appear to affect liver fibrosis predictability.

CONCLUSIONS

The laboratory indices APRI and FIB-4 index exhibit good diagnostic performance for determining advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis among patients with hepatitis C infection. The diagnostic accuracy appears better among patients with SVR and those with BMI <25 kg/m².

Development and surveillance of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with sustained virologic response after antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis C

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major risk factor for liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and is a leading cause of liver-related deaths worldwide. Recently available direct-acting antiviral agent is very safe and highly effective (>95% sustained virologic response, SVR) against all genotypes of HCV. Achievement of SVR has been associated with a significant reduction of hepatic decompensation, development of HCC, and liver-related mortality. However, HCC risk is not eliminated even after SVR. The annual incidences of HCC in advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis have been estimated to be up to 2.5-4.5% even in patients with SVR. Therefore, surveillance for HCC is recommended in this high-risk patients. In this review, we will describe the clinical outcomes and the risk of HCC in patients with SVR and suggest who should receive surveillance for HCC.

Clinical prediction of HBV and HCV related hepatic fibrosis using machine learning

Clinical prediction of advanced hepatic fibrosis (HF) and cirrhosis has long been challenging due to the gold standard, liver biopsy, being an invasive approach with certain limitations. Less invasive blood test tandem with a cutting-edge machine learning algorithm shows promising diagnostic potential.

In this study, we constructed and compared machine learning methods with the FIB-4 score in a discovery dataset (n = 490) of hepatitis B virus (HBV) patients. Models were validated in an independent HBV dataset (n = 86). We further employed these models on two independent hepatitis C virus (HCV) datasets (n = 254 and 230) to examine their applicability.

In the discovery data, gradient boosting (GB) stably outperformed other methods as well as FIB-4 scores (p < .001) in the prediction of advanced HF and cirrhosis. In the HBV validation dataset, for classification between early and advanced HF, the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC) of GB model was 0.918, while FIB-4 was 0.841; for classification between non-cirrhosis and cirrhosis, GB showed AUROC of 0.871, while FIB-4 was 0.830. Additionally, GB-based prediction demonstrated good classification capacity on two HCV datasets while higher cutoffs for both GB and FIB-4 scores were required to achieve comparable specificity and sensitivity.

Using the same parameters as FIB-4, the GB-based prediction system demonstrated steady improvements relative to FIB-4 in HBV and HCV cohorts with different cutoff values required in different etiological groups. A user-friendly web tool, LiveBoost, makes our prediction models freely accessible for further clinical studies and applications.

Hepatitis C Virus and Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Narrative Review

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of liver-related death worldwide. Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major cause of advanced hepatic fibrosis and cirrhosis, with significantly increased risk for development of HCC. The morbidity and mortality of HCV-related HCC remains high, as rates of HCV cirrhosis continue to increase. The long-term goal of antiviral therapy for chronic HCV is to reduce complications from cirrhosis, including HCC. The advent of new direct-acting antivirals with high rates of virological clearance has revolutionized cure of HCV infection. While the development of HCC in HCV patients who achieve disease sustained virologic response is reduced, these patients remain at risk for HCC, particularly those patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis. This review outlines the epidemiology of HCC in chronic HCV, various mechanisms, risk factors and pathophysiology that contribute to this disease process, screening recommendations, and the available data on the impact of new direct-acting antiviral treatment on the development on HCC.

Noninvasive Assessment of Fibrosis Regression in Hepatitis C Virus Sustained Virologic Responders

The emergence of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapies and noninvasive measures of liver fibrosis has streamlined the management of patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. DAA therapy is associated with a significantly higher rate of sustained virologic response (SVR) compared to interferon-based therapies. Concomitantly, validated noninvasive measures of fibrosis allow evaluation of patients for therapy without an invasive liver biopsy. Noninvasive measures of fibrosis can be classified as serologic tests or imaging modalities. Several serologic tests have shown robust reliability and clinical applicability. Similarly, imaging modalities such as vibration-controlled transient elastography and magnetic resonance elastography can be used to assess liver stiffness and correlate with fibrosis. Combinations of serologic and imaging tests further improve accuracy compared to an individual modality. The availability of noninvasive fibrosis measures coupled with high SVR rates has shifted the paradigm in the management of HCV infection in the DAA era. Although these noninvasive tests are valuable in evaluating hepatic fibrosis prior to HCV therapy, use of these measures in monitoring fibrosis regression after HCV eradication is currently limited. Furthermore, for patients with pretreatment cirrhosis, the association between fibrosis regression after successful therapy and the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) over time is unclear. There are no guidelines on long-term fibrosis monitoring and HCC surveillance after SVR is achieved. This article summarizes the current data on the applications of noninvasive methods to measure hepatic fibrosis and portal hypertension in HCV. In addition, a road map is provided for monitoring patients with advanced fibrosis after HCV eradication.

American Gastroenterological Association Institute Clinical Practice Update-Expert Review: Care of Patients Who Have Achieved a Sustained Virologic Response After Antiviral Therapy for Chronic Hepatitis C Infection

Chronic hepatitis C virus infection is well-recognized as a common blood-borne infection with global public health impact affecting 3 to 5 million persons in the United States and more than 170 million persons worldwide. Chronic hepatitis C virus infection is associated with significant morbidity and mortality due to complications of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Current therapies with all-oral direct-acting antiviral agents are associated with high rates of sustained virologic response (SVR), generally exceeding 90%. SVR is associated with a reduced risk of liver cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, need for liver transplantation, and both liver-related and all-cause mortality. However, a subset of patients who achieve SVR will remain at long-term risk for progression to cirrhosis, liver failure, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-related mortality. Limited evidence is available to guide clinicians on which post-SVR patients should be monitored vs discharged, how to monitor and with which tests, how frequently should monitoring occur, and for how long. In this clinical practice update, available evidence and expert opinion are used to generate best practice recommendations on the care of patients with chronic hepatitis C virus who have achieved SVR.

The Impact of New Technologic and Molecular Advances in the Daily Practice of Gastrointestinal and Hepatobiliary Pathology

The practice of anatomic pathology, and of gastrointestinal pathology in particular, has been dramatically transformed in the past decade. In addition to the multitude of diseases, syndromes, and clinical entities encountered in daily clinical practice, the increasing integration of new technologic and molecular advances into the field of gastroenterology is occurring at a fast pace. Application of these advances has challenged pathologists to correlate newer methodologies with existing morphologic criteria, which in many instances still provide the gold standard for diagnosis. This review describes the impact of new technologic and molecular advances on the daily practice of gastrointestinal and hepatobiliary pathology. We discuss new drugs that can affect the gastrointestinal tract and liver, new endoluminal techniques, new molecular tests that are often performed reflexively, new imaging techniques for evaluating hepatocellular carcinoma, and modified approaches to the gross and histologic assessment of tissues that have been exposed to neoadjuvant therapies.

Liver fibrosis indices for identifying patients at low risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma after eradication of HCV

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis C can develop after sustained virological response (SVR) to antiviral therapy for HCV, that is, the eradication of HCV, and effective surveillance systems for HCC should be established for this population. We retrospectively evaluated the utility of three laboratory liver fibrosis indices (aspartate aminotransferase-platelet ratio index [APRI], FIB-4 index and Forns index) for identifying patients at low risk of HCC development after SVR, for whom the termination of surveillance for HCC can be considered.

METHODS

APRI, FIB-4 index and Forns index scores were calculated based on laboratory data prior to anti-HCV therapy and at 24 weeks after the end of anti-HCV therapy (SVR24) in 522 patients with SVR who continued surveillance for HCC after SVR. The associations between HCC development and laboratory indices at both points were analysed.

RESULTS

Twenty-one patients developed HCC after SVR during 2.3-24.4 years follow-up. Whereas HCC developed even in patients with low APRI or FIB-4 index scores, no patients with low Forns index scores developed HCC after SVR. These results were confirmed in a separate cohort of 309 patients who achieved SVR (HCC developed in 17 patients during 1.7-21.6 years follow-up).

CONCLUSIONS

Forns index, especially assessed prior to anti-HCV therapy, was a useful laboratory liver fibrosis index for identifying patients at low likelihood of HCC after SVR. This index may be used as one of indicators to consider the termination of surveillance for HCC after the eradication of HCV.

Serological Tests Do Not Predict Residual Fibrosis in Hepatitis C Cirrhotics with a Sustained Virological Response to Interferon

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Liver biopsy (LB) has lost popularity to stage liver fibrosis in the era of highly effective anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapy, yet diagnosis of persistent cirrhosis may have important implications following HCV eradication. As performance of serological non-invasive tests (NITs) to predict residual fibrosis in non-viremic HCV patients is unknown, we investigated accuracy of NITs to predict residual fibrosis in cirrhotics after a sustained virological response (SVR) to interferon (IFN).

METHODS

Thirty-eight patients with a pre-treatment histological diagnosis of cirrhosis and a 48-104 months post-SVR LB were tested with APRI, CDS, FIB-4, FibroQ, Forns Score, GUCI Index, King Score, Lok Index, PLF, ELF. In 23 (61%) patients, cirrhosis had histologically regressed.

RESULTS

All NITs values declined after SVR without any significant difference between regressors and non-regressors (AUROC 0.52-0.75). Using viremic cut-offs, PPV ranged from 34% to 100%, with lower NPV (63% - 68%). NITs performance did not improve using derived cut-offs (PPV: 40% - 80%; NPV: 66% - 100%). PLF, which combines several NITs with transient elastography, had the best diagnostic performance (AUROC 0.75, Sn 61%, Sp 90%, PPV 80%, NPV 78%). After treatment, none of the NITs resulted significantly associated with any of the histological features (activity grade, fibrosis stage, area of fibrosis).

CONCLUSIONS

The diagnostic estimates obtained using both viremic and derived cut-off values of NITs were suboptimal, indicating that none of these tests helps predicting residual fibrosis and that LB remains the gold standard for this purpose.

Should surveillance for liver cancer be modified in hepatitis C patients after treatment-related cirrhosis regression?

Surveillance of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with abdominal ultrasound (US) is recommended for patients with advanced liver fibrosis because of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections who achieve a sustained virological response (SVR) to antiviral therapy. HCC, in fact, may still develop following SVR as a consequence of long-standing carcinogenic activity of either HCV or hepatic fibrosis, whereas HCC risk in non-viraemic patients may also be driven by cofactors like alcohol abuse or diabetes. This explains the debate on whether surveillance for HCC should be continued in patients with documented cirrhosis regression following a SVR too. While regression of cirrhosis was documented to occur in a majority of patients with compensated cirrhosis 5 years after an SVR to interferon, it should be noted that this clinical benefit could be the consequence of treating a selected population with well-compensated liver disease who in fact were interferon able. This may not be the case for most real-life patients with advanced cirrhosis receiving direct antivirals, in whom liver fibrosis may have reached a point of no-return thus potentially preventing the recovery of a normal liver architecture following SVR. Both invasive and non-invasive tools have suboptimal diagnostic accuracy for fibrosis regression in non-viraemic patients, and this prompts to follow international societies' recommendation to perform surveillance in patients with advanced liver fibrosis achieving a SVR, independently on liver histology outcome.

Follow-up of patients with chronic hepatitis C and a sustained viral response

Patients with chronic hepatitis C who achieve a sustained virological response (SVR) after antiviral treatment have improved survival and liver-related morbidity compared to non-SVR patients. However, long-term follow-up studies in SVR patients have shown that the regression of fibrosis varies and the risk of liver-related complications remains, even in the absence of cirrhosis. While patients with cirrhosis are still at risk of hepatocellular carcinoma, comorbidities such as diabetes, obesity or alcohol consumption may play a major role in the outcome of liver disease in SVR patients without cirrhosis. The risk of re-infection is high in patients with a persistent risk of contamination such as IV drug users or men who have sex with men. Thus, in the era of highly efficient DAAs regimens, monitoring after a cure of HCV infection remains a major challenge in SVR patients. This review describes long-term HCV infection and liver-related outcomes in SVR patients, as well as the profile of patients who are still at risk of progression, and monitoring techniques including non-invasive markers for the assessment of fibrosis.

Long-Term Outcomes of Hepatitis-C-Infected Patients Achieving a Sustained Virological Response and Undergoing Radical Treatment for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

<b><i>Background and Aims:</i></b> A sustained virological response (SVR) decreases the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with hepatitis C. We investigated the long-term outcomes of patients who developed HCC after achieving SVR with interferon therapy. <b><i>Patients:</i></b> Of 75 patients who developed HCC after SVR, 40 patients underwent radical therapies (SVR group). From 436 patients undergoing surgical resection for hepatitis C virus-positive HCC, 80 patients were randomly chosen as a control cohort, after adjusting for age, gender, and extent of hepatic fibrosis (non-SVR group). Patients were observed for a median of 5.08 years. <b><i>Results:</i></b> HCC recurrence was found in 16 SVR patients and in 66 non-SVR patients. The respective HCC recurrence rates of SVR and non-SVR patients were 23 and 56% at 3 years, 42 and 77% at 5 years, and 53 and 90% at 10 years (p = 0.001). The respective overall survival rates in the SVR and non-SVR groups were 93 and 68% at 5 years, 88 and 34% at 10 years, and 53 and 21% at 15 years (p<i> = </i>0.001). <b><i>Conclusion:</i></b> Although SVR patients had a significantly lower HCC recurrence rate than the non-SVR patients, the cumulative recurrence rate of SVR patients increased to 86% at 15 years.