Rapid Environmental Change Drives Increased Land Use by an Arctic Marine Predator

Long-term assessment of relationships between changing environmental conditions and the physiology of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus)

Climate change is influencing polar bear (Ursus maritimus) habitat, diet, and behavior but the effects of these changes on their physiology is not well understood. Blood-based biomarkers are used to assess the physiologic health of individuals but their usefulness for evaluating population health, especially as it relates to changing environmental conditions, has rarely been explored. We describe links between environmental conditions and physiologic functions of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears using data from blood samples collected from 1984 to 2018, a period marked by extensive environmental change. We evaluated associations between 13 physiologic biomarkers and circumpolar (Arctic oscillation index) and regional (wind patterns and ice-free days) environmental metrics and seasonal and demographic co-variates (age, sex, season, and year) known to affect polar bear ecology. We observed signs of dysregulation of water balance in polar bears following years with a lower annual Arctic oscillation index. In addition, liver enzyme values increased over time, which is suggestive of potential hepatocyte damage as the Arctic has warmed. Biomarkers of immune function increased with regional-scale wind patterns and the number of ice-free days over the Beaufort Sea continental shelf and were lower in years with a lower winter Arctic oscillation index, suggesting an increased allocation of energetic resources for immune processes under these conditions. We propose that the variation in polar bear immune and metabolic function is likely indicative of physiologic plasticity, a response that allows polar bears to remain in homeostasis even as they experience changes in nutrition and habitat in response to changing environments.

Serum Virome of Southern Beaufort Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus) during a period of rapid climate change

Climate change affects the behavior, physiology and life history of many Arctic wildlife species. It can also influence the distribution and ecology of infectious agents. The southern Beaufort Sea (SB) subpopulation of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) has experienced dramatic behavioral changes due to retreating sea ice and other climate-related factors, but the effects of these changes on physiology and infection remain poorly understood. Using serum from polar bears sampled between 2004 and 2015 and metagenomic DNA sequencing, we identified 48 viruses, all of the family Anelloviridae. Anelloviruses are small, ubiquitous infectious agents with circular single-stranded DNA genomes that are not known to cause disease but, in humans, covary in diversity and load with immunological compromise. We therefore examined the usefulness of anelloviruses as biomarkers of polar bear physiological stress related to climate and habitat use. Polar bear anelloviruses sorted into two distinct clades on a phylogenetic tree, both of which also contained anelloviruses of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), another ursid. Neither anellovirus diversity nor load were associated with any demographic variables, behavioral factors or direct physiological measures. However, pairwise genetic distances between anelloviruses were positively correlated with pairwise differences in sampling date, suggesting that the polar bear "anellome" is evolving over time. These findings suggest that anelloviruses are not a sensitive indicator of polar physiological stress, but they do provide a baseline for evaluating future changes to polar bear viromes.

Diet energy density estimated from isotopes in predator hair associated with survival, habitat, and population dynamics

Sea ice loss is fundamentally altering the Arctic marine environment. Yet there is a paucity of data on the adaptability of food webs to ecosystem change, including predator-prey interactions. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are an important subsistence resource for Indigenous people and an apex predator that relies entirely on the under-ice food web to meet its energy needs. In this study, we assessed whether polar bears maintained dietary energy density by prey switching in response to spatiotemporal variation in prey availability. We compared the macronutrient composition of diets inferred from stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes in polar bear guard hair (primarily representing summer/fall diet) during periods when bears had low and high survival (2004-2016), between bears that summered on land versus pack ice, and between bears occupying different regions of the Alaskan and Canadian Beaufort Sea. Polar bears consumed diets with lower energy density during periods of low survival, suggesting that concurrent increased dietary proportions of beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) did not offset reduced proportions of ringed seals (Pusa hispida). Diets with the lowest energy density and proportions from ringed seal blubber were consumed by bears in the western Beaufort Sea (Alaska) during a period when polar bear abundance declined. Intake required to meet energy requirements of an average free-ranging adult female polar bear was 2.1 kg/day on diets consumed during years with high survival but rose to 3.0 kg/day when survival was low. Although bears that summered onshore in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea had higher-fat diets than bears that summered on the pack ice, access to the remains of subsistence-harvested bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) contributed little to improving diet energy density. Because most bears in this region remain with the sea ice year round, prey switching and consumption of whale carcasses onshore appear insufficient to augment diets when availability of their primary prey, ringed seals, is reduced. Our results show that a strong predator-prey relationship between polar bears and ringed seals continues in the Beaufort Sea. The method of estimating dietary blubber using predator hair, demonstrated here, provides a new metric to monitor predator-prey relationships that affect individual health and population demographics.

Mercury Contamination Challenges the Behavioral Response of a Keystone Species to Arctic Climate Change

Combined effects of multiple, climate change-associated stressors are of mounting concern, especially in Arctic ecosystems. Elevated mercury (Hg) exposure in Arctic animals could affect behavioral responses to changes in foraging landscapes caused by climate change, generating interactive effects on behavior and population resilience. We investigated this hypothesis in little auks (Alle alle), a keystone Arctic seabird. We compiled behavioral data for 44 birds across 5 years using accelerometers while also quantifying blood Hg and environmental conditions. Warm sea surface temperature (SST) and low sea ice coverage reshaped time activity budgets (TABs) and diving patterns, causing decreased resting, increased flight, and longer dives. Mercury contamination was not associated with TABs. However, highly contaminated birds lengthened interdive breaks when making long dives, suggesting Hg-induced physiological limitations. As dive durations increased with warm SST, subtle toxicological effects threaten to increasingly constrain diving and foraging efficiency as climate change progresses, with ecosystem-wide repercussions.

The influence of global climate change on accumulation and toxicity of persistent organic pollutants and chemicals of emerging concern in Arctic food webs

This review summarizes current understanding of how climate change-driven physical and ecological processes influence the levels of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and contaminants of emerging Arctic concern (CEACs) in Arctic biota and food webs. The review also highlights how climate change may interact with other stressors to impact contaminant toxicity, and the utility of modeling and newer research tools in closing knowledge gaps on climate change-contaminant interactions. Permafrost thaw is influencing the concentrations of POPs in freshwater ecosystems. Physical climate parameters, including climate oscillation indices, precipitation, water salinity, sea ice age, and sea ice quality show statistical associations with POPs concentrations in multiple Arctic biota. Northward range-shifting species can act as biovectors for POPs and CEACs into Arctic marine food webs. Shifts in trophic position can alter POPs concentrations in populations of Arctic species. Reductions in body condition are associated with increases in levels of POPs in some biota. Although collectively understudied, multiple stressors, including contaminants and climate change, may act to cumulatively impact some populations of Arctic biota. Models are useful for predicting the net result of various contrasting climate-driven processes on POP and CEAC exposures; however, for some parameters, especially food web changes, insufficient data exists with which to populate such models. In addition to the impact of global regulations on POP levels in Arctic biota, this review demonstrates that there are various direct and indirect mechanisms by which climate change can influence contaminant exposure, accumulation, and effects; therefore, it is important to attribute POP variations to the actual contributing factors to inform future regulations and policies. To do so, a broad range of habitats, species, and processes must be considered for a thorough understanding and interpretation of the consequences to the distribution, accumulation, and effects of environmental contaminants. Given the complex interactions between climate change, contaminants, and ecosystems, it is important to plan for long-term, integrated pan-Arctic monitoring of key biota and ecosystems, and to collect ancillary data, including information on climate-related parameters, local meteorology, ecology, and physiology, and when possible, behavior, when carrying out research on POPs and CEACs in biota and food webs of the Arctic.

A SEROLOGIC SURVEY OF FRANCISELLA TULARENSIS EXPOSURE IN WILDLIFE ON THE ARCTIC COASTAL PLAIN OF ALASKA, USA

Tularemia is an infectious zoonotic disease caused by one of several subspecies of Francisella tularensis bacteria. Infections by F. tularensis are common throughout the northern hemisphere and have been detected in more than 250 wildlife species. In Alaska, US, where the pathogen was first identified in 1938, studies have identified F. tularensis antibodies in a diverse suite of taxa, including insects, birds, and mammals. However, few such investigations have been conducted recently and knowledge about the current distribution and disease ecology of F. tularensis is limited, particularly in Arctic Alaska, an area undergoing rapid environmental changes from climate warming. To help address these information gaps and provide insights about patterns of exposure among wildlife, we assessed the seroprevalence of F. tularensis antibodies in mammals and tundra-nesting geese from the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska, 2014-17. With a commercially available slide agglutination test, we detected antibodies in 14.7% of all individuals sampled (n=722), with titers ranging from 1:20 to 1:320. We detected significant differences in seroprevalence between family groups, with Canidae (foxes, Vulpes spp.) and Sciuridae (Arctic ground squirrel, Spermophilus parryii) having the highest seroprevalence at 21.5% and 33.3%, respectively. Mean seroprevalence for Ursidae (polar bears, Ursus maritimus) was 13.3%, whereas Cervidae (caribou, Rangifer tarandus) had comparatively low seroprevalence at 6.5%. Antibodies were detected in all Anatidae species sampled, with Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) having the highest seroprevalence at 13.6%. The detection of F. tularensis antibodies across multiple taxa from the Arctic Coastal Plain and its nearshore marine region provides evidence of exposure to this pathogen throughout the region and highlights the need for renewed surveillance in Alaska.

Climate change and mercury in the Arctic: Biotic interactions

Global climate change has led to profound alterations of the Arctic environment and ecosystems, with potential secondary effects on mercury (Hg) within Arctic biota. This review presents the current scientific evidence for impacts of direct physical climate change and indirect ecosystem change on Hg exposure and accumulation in Arctic terrestrial, freshwater, and marine organisms. As the marine environment is elevated in Hg compared to the terrestrial environment, terrestrial herbivores that now exploit coastal/marine foods when terrestrial plants are iced over may be exposed to higher Hg concentrations. Conversely, certain populations of predators, including Arctic foxes and polar bears, have shown lower Hg concentrations related to reduced sea ice-based foraging and increased land-based foraging. How climate change influences Hg in Arctic freshwater fishes is not clear, but for lacustrine populations it may depend on lake-specific conditions, including interrelated alterations in lake ice duration, turbidity, food web length and energy sources (benthic to pelagic), and growth dilution. In several marine mammal and seabird species, tissue Hg concentrations have shown correlations with climate and weather variables, including climate oscillation indices and sea ice trends; these findings suggest that wind, precipitation, and cryosphere changes that alter Hg transport and deposition are impacting Hg concentrations in Arctic marine organisms. Ecological changes, including northward range shifts of sub-Arctic species and altered body condition, have also been shown to affect Hg levels in some populations of Arctic marine species. Given the limited number of populations and species studied to date, especially within Arctic terrestrial and freshwater systems, further research is needed on climate-driven processes influencing Hg concentrations in Arctic ecosystems and their net effects. Long-term pan-Arctic monitoring programs should consider ancillary datasets on climate, weather, organism ecology and physiology to improve interpretation of spatial variation and time trends of Hg in Arctic biota.

Significance of autumn and winter food consumption for reproduction by Southern Beaufort Sea polar bears, Ursus maritimus

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the southern Beaufort Sea experience long annual periods when preferred seal prey are scarce or are unavailable. Consumption of bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) carcasses from native Alaskan subsistence hunting is increasingly common for onshore polar bears, yet the energetic consequences of this consumption remain unclear. We use data on bears captured repeatedly over periods that encompassed autumn and winter, combined with calculations, to show that adult female bears likely consume an average of at least 4 seal equivalents during both autumn and winter periods and that considerable variation in energy intake exists across individual bears. We further show that subsistence-caught whale carcasses provide an upper threshold of > 4000 seal equivalents, which could potentially meet mean consumption needs of ~ 80% of the southern Beaufort Sea bear subpopulation during autumn and winter periods. Finally, we modify an existing model to show that observed mass changes over autumn and winter could substantially alter spring foraging habitat choice by females with cubs and the chance that a female with reduced energy reserves would abort a pregnancy or abandon cubs in favor of increasing her own survival; these behaviors could potentially influence population vital rates. Our study highlights the importance of mass dynamics over the autumn and winter months, points to the need for additional data on foraging and energetics over this period, and indicates that the recent declines in polar bear body condition in some subpopulations could have complex effects on reproduction.

Intrapopulation differences in polar bear movement and step selection patterns

BACKGROUND

The spatial ecology of individuals often varies within a population or species. Identifying how individuals in different classes interact with their environment can lead to a better understanding of population responses to human activities and environmental change and improve population estimates. Most inferences about polar bear (Ursus maritimus) spatial ecology are based on data from adult females due to morphological constraints on applying satellite radio collars to other classes of bears. Recent studies, however, have provided limited movement data for adult males and sub-adults of both sexes using ear-mounted and glue-on tags. We evaluated class-specific movements and step selection patterns for polar bears in the Chukchi Sea subpopulation during spring.

METHODS

We developed hierarchical Bayesian models to evaluate polar bear movement (i.e., step length and directional persistence) and step selection at the scale of 4-day step lengths. We assessed differences in movement and step selection parameters among the three classes of polar bears (i.e., adult males, sub-adults, and adult females without cubs-of-the-year).

RESULTS

Adult males had larger step lengths and less directed movements than adult females. Sub-adult movement parameters did not differ from the other classes but point estimates were most similar to adult females. We did not detect differences among polar bear classes in step selection parameters and parameter estimates were consistent with previous studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support the use of estimated step selection patterns from adult females as a proxy for other classes of polar bears during spring. Conversely, movement analyses indicated that using data from adult females as a proxy for the movements of adult males is likely inappropriate. We recommend that researchers consider whether it is valid to extend inference derived from adult female movements to other classes, based on the questions being asked and the spatial and temporal scope of the data. Because our data were specific to spring, these findings highlight the need to evaluate differences in movement and step selection during other periods of the year, for which data from ear-mounted and glue-on tags are currently lacking.

Group characteristics and spatial organization of the Eastern Beaufort Sea beluga whale (Delphinapterus leucas) population using aerial photographs

While it is known that beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas (Pallas, 1776)) are social animals, sociality within populations remains complex and poorly understood. Using aerial photographs taken in mid-July and early August 2019, we examined group characteristics and spatial organization of the Eastern Beaufort Sea beluga population in two distinct summering areas: (1) the continental shelf and offshore region of the southeast Beaufort Sea, and (2) the inshore of the Mackenzie Estuary. Observations revealed that the average group size was similar in both environments. A piecewise regression analysis showed that belugas were found to be most frequently within 24.6 m of another beluga in the offshore, and within 22.0 m in the inshore. The average inter-individual distance of groups composed of subadults and/or adults was greater than that of groups including younger whales in both environments. Also, the swimming direction of individuals in a group differed less in the offshore than in the inshore. We suggest that habitat shapes the types of activity conducted and that spatial cohesion within groups persists across environmental conditions but changes with age composition. By identifying elements of social structure and important areas for Eastern Beaufort Sea belugas, our results highlight the value of habitat conservation.

Distinct gut microbiomes in two polar bear subpopulations inhabiting different sea ice ecoregions

Gut microbiomes were analyzed by 16S rRNA gene metabarcoding for polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the southern Beaufort Sea (SB), where sea ice loss has led to increased use of land-based food resources by bears, and from East Greenland (EG), where persistent sea ice has allowed hunting of ice-associated prey nearly year-round. SB polar bears showed a higher number of total (940 vs. 742) and unique (387 vs. 189) amplicon sequence variants and higher inter-individual variation compared to EG polar bears. Gut microbiome composition differed significantly between the two subpopulations and among sex/age classes, likely driven by diet variation and ontogenetic shifts in the gut microbiome. Dietary tracer analysis using fatty acid signatures for SB polar bears showed that diet explained more intrapopulation variation in gut microbiome composition and diversity than other tested variables, i.e., sex/age class, body condition, and capture year. Substantial differences in the SB gut microbiome relative to EG polar bears, and associations between SB gut microbiome and diet, suggest that the shifting foraging habits of SB polar bears tied to sea ice loss may be altering their gut microbiome, with potential consequences for nutrition and physiology.

Long-term increases in pathogen seroprevalence in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) influenced by climate change

The influence of climate change on wildlife disease dynamics is a burgeoning conservation and human health issue, but few long-term studies empirically link climate to pathogen prevalence. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are vulnerable to the negative impacts of sea ice loss as a result of accelerated Arctic warming. While studies have associated changes in polar bear body condition, reproductive output, survival, and abundance to reductions in sea ice, no long-term studies have documented the impact of climate change on pathogen exposure. We examined 425 serum samples from 381 adult polar bears, collected in western Hudson Bay (WH), Canada, for antibodies to selected pathogens across three time periods: 1986-1989 (n = 157), 1995-1998 (n = 159) and 2015-2017 (n = 109). We ran serological assays for antibodies to seven pathogens: Toxoplasma gondii, Neospora caninum, Trichinella spp., Francisella tularensis, Bordetella bronchiseptica, canine morbillivirus (CDV) and canine parvovirus (CPV). Seroprevalence of zoonotic parasites (T. gondii, Trichinella spp.) and bacterial pathogens (F. tularensis, B. bronchiseptica) increased significantly between 1986-1989 and 1995-1998, ranging from +6.2% to +20.8%, with T. gondii continuing to increase into 2015-2017 (+25.8% overall). Seroprevalence of viral pathogens (CDV, CPV) and N. caninum did not change with time. Toxoplasma gondii seroprevalence was higher following wetter summers, while seroprevalences of Trichinella spp. and B. bronchiseptica were positively correlated with hotter summers. Seroprevalence of antibodies to F. tularensis increased following years polar bears spent more days on land, and polar bears previously captured in human settlements were more likely to be seropositive for Trichinella spp. As the Arctic has warmed due to climate change, zoonotic pathogen exposure in WH polar bears has increased, driven by numerous altered ecosystem pathways.

Survival and abundance of polar bears in Alaska's Beaufort Sea, 2001-2016

The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid transformation toward a seasonally ice-free ecosystem. As ice-adapted apex predators, polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are challenged to cope with ongoing habitat degradation and changes in their prey base driven by food-web response to climate warming. Knowledge of polar bear response to environmental change is necessary to understand ecosystem dynamics and inform conservation decisions. In the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) of Alaska and western Canada, sea ice extent has declined since satellite observations began in 1979 and available evidence suggests that the carrying capacity of the SBS for polar bears has trended lower for nearly two decades. In this study, we investigated the population dynamics of polar bears in Alaska's SBS from 2001 to 2016 using a multistate Cormack-Jolly-Seber mark-recapture model. States were defined as geographic regions, and we used location data from mark-recapture observations and satellite-telemetered bears to model transitions between states and thereby explain heterogeneity in recapture probabilities. Our results corroborate prior findings that the SBS subpopulation experienced low survival from 2003 to 2006. Survival improved modestly from 2006 to 2008 and afterward rebounded to comparatively high levels for the remainder of the study, except in 2012. Abundance moved in concert with survival throughout the study period, declining substantially from 2003 and 2006 and afterward fluctuating with lower variation around an average of 565 bears (95% Bayesian credible interval [340, 920]) through 2015. Even though abundance was comparatively stable and without sustained trend from 2006 to 2015, polar bears in the Alaska SBS were less abundant over that period than at any time since passage of the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act. The potential for recovery is likely limited by the degree of habitat degradation the subpopulation has experienced, and future reductions in carrying capacity are expected given current projections for continued climate warming.

Energetic and health effects of protein overconsumption constrain dietary adaptation in an apex predator

Studies of predator feeding ecology commonly focus on energy intake. However, captive predators have been documented to selectively feed to optimize macronutrient intake. As many apex predators experience environmental changes that affect prey availability, limitations on selective feeding can affect energetics and health. We estimated the protein:fat ratio of diets consumed by wild polar bears using a novel isotope-based approach, measured protein:fat ratios selected by zoo polar bears offered dietary choice and examined potential energetic and health consequences of overconsuming protein. Dietary protein levels selected by wild and zoo polar bears were low and similar to selection observed in omnivorous brown bears, which reduced energy intake requirements by 70% compared with lean meat diets. Higher-protein diets fed to zoo polar bears during normal care were concurrent with high rates of mortality from kidney disease and liver cancer. Our results suggest that polar bears have low protein requirements and that limitations on selective consumption of marine mammal blubber consequent to climate change could meaningfully increase their energetic costs. Although bear protein requirements appear lower than those of other carnivores, the energetic and health consequences of protein overconsumption identified in this study have the potential to affect a wide range of taxa.

Migration dynamics of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in western Hudson Bay

Migration is predicted to change both spatially and temporally as climate change alters seasonal resource availability. Species in extreme environments are especially susceptible to climate change; hence, it is important to determine environmental and biological variables that influence their migration. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are an Arctic apex carnivore whose migration phenology has been affected by climate change and is vulnerable to future changes. Here, we used satellite-linked telemetry collar data from adult female polar bears in western Hudson Bay from 2004 to 2016 and multivariate response regression models to demonstrate that 1) spatial and temporal migration metrics are correlated, 2) ice concentration and wind are important environmental variables that influence polar bear migration in seasonal ice areas, and 3) migration did not vary across the years of our study, highlighting the importance of continued monitoring. Specifically, we found that ice concentration, wind speed, and wind direction affected polar bear migration onto ice during freeze-up and ice concentration and wind direction affected migration onto land during breakup. Bears departed from land earlier with increased wind speed and the effect of wind direction on migration may be linked to prey searching and ice drift. Low ice concentration was associated with higher movement during freeze-up and breakup. Our findings suggest that migration movement may increase in response to climate change as ice concentration and access to prey declines, potentially increasing nutritional stress on bears.

Seal body condition and atmospheric circulation patterns influence polar bear body condition, recruitment, and feeding ecology in the Chukchi Sea

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are experiencing loss of sea ice habitats used to access their marine mammal prey. Simultaneously, ocean warming is changing ecosystems that support marine mammal populations. The interactive effects of sea ice and prey are not well understood yet may explain spatial-temporal variation in the response of polar bears to sea ice loss. Here, we examined the potential combined effects of sea ice, seal body condition, and atmospheric circulation patterns on the body condition, recruitment, diet, and feeding probability of 469 polar bears captured in the Chukchi Sea, 2008-2017. The body condition of ringed seals (Pusa hispida), the primary prey of females and subadults, was related to dietary proportions of ringed seal, feeding probability, and the body condition of females and cubs. In contrast, adult males consumed more bearded seals (Erignathus barbatus) and exhibited better condition when bearded seal body condition was higher. The litter size, number of yearlings per adult female, and the condition of dependent young were higher following winters characterized by low Arctic Oscillation conditions, consistent with a growing number of studies. Body condition, recruitment, and feeding probability were either not associated or negatively associated with sea ice conditions, suggesting that, unlike some subpopulations, Chukchi Sea bears are not currently limited by sea ice availability. However, spring sea ice cover declined 2% per year during our study reaching levels not previously observed in the satellite record and resulting in the loss of polar bear hunting and seal pupping habitat. Our study suggests that the status of ice seal populations is likely an important factor that can either compound or mitigate the response of polar bears to sea ice loss over the short term. In the long term, neither polar bears nor their prey are likely robust to limitless loss of their sea ice habitat.

Physiological consequences of Arctic sea ice loss on large marine carnivores: unique responses by polar bears and narwhals

Rapid environmental changes in the Arctic are threatening the survival of marine species that rely on the predictable presence of the sea ice. Two Arctic marine mammal specialists, the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) and narwhal (Monodon monoceros), appear especially vulnerable to the speed and capriciousness of sea ice deterioration as a consequence of their unique hunting behaviors and diet, as well as their physiological adaptations for slow-aerobic exercise. These intrinsic characteristics limit the ability of these species to respond to extrinsic threats associated with environmental change and increased industrial activity in a warming Arctic. In assessing how sea ice loss may differentially affect polar bears that hunt on the ice surface and narwhals that hunt at extreme depths below, we found that major ice loss translated into elevated locomotor costs that range from 3- to 4-fold greater than expected for both species. For polar bears this instigates an energy imbalance from the combined effects of reduced caloric intake and increased energy expenditure. For narwhals, high locomotor costs during diving increase the risk of ice entrapment due to the unreliability of breathing holes. These species-specific physiological constraints and extreme reliance on the polar sea ice conspire to make these two marine mammal specialists sentinels of climate change within the Arctic marine ecosystem that may foreshadow rapid changes to the marine ecosystem.

Climate-associated drivers of plasma cytokines and contaminant concentrations in Beaufort Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus)

Assessing polar bear (Ursus maritimus) immune function in relation to environmental stressors, including habitat change, nutritional stress, pathogen prevalence, and pollution, has been identified as critical for improved understanding of the species' health. The objectives of this study were two-fold: 1) to assess the role of climate-associated factors (habitat use, body condition) in explaining the plasma concentrations of contaminants in southern Beaufort Sea (SB) polar bears, and 2) to investigate how climate-associated factors, contaminant concentrations, and pathogen sero-prevalence influence the plasma concentrations of immune-signaling proteins called cytokines. A commercially available multiplex canine cytokine panel was validated for the quantification of five pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines in polar bear plasma: tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α), interleukin 6 (IL-6), IL-8, IL-10, and interferon gamma-induced protein 10 (IP-10). This panel was then used to measure cytokine concentrations in 49 SB polar bears sampled in the springs of 2013 and 2014. Mean ∑PCBs (plasma), ∑OCs (plasma), and THg (hair) were 13.01 ± 1.52 ng g^-1 w.w. (range: 0.17-52.63), 19.46 ± 1.17 ng g^-1 w.w. (range: 6.63-45.82), and 0.49 μg g^-1 d.w. (range: 0.99-15.18), respectively. Top models explaining variation in concentrations of plasma PCBs, plasma OC pesticides, and hair THg in SB polar bears included body mass index and/or habitat use (onshore versus offshore), with higher contaminant concentrations in leaner and/or offshore bears. Plasma cytokine concentrations were influenced most strongly by plasma PCBs and age, with little to no influence found for plasma OCs or hair THg concentrations, habitat use, or pathogen sero-prevalence. The lack of association between cytokines and these latter variables is likely due to a temporal disconnect between measured endpoints. The change of polar bear habitat use, feeding ecology, and body condition with ongoing climate warming is affecting exposure to contaminants and pathogens, with potential adverse consequences on a well-balanced immune system.

Transient benefits of climate change for a high-Arctic polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation

Kane Basin (KB) is one of the world's most northerly polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulations, where bears have historically inhabited a mix of thick multiyear and annual sea ice year-round. Currently, KB is transitioning to a seasonally ice-free region because of climate change. This ecological shift has been hypothesized to benefit polar bears in the near-term due to thinner ice with increased biological production, although this has not been demonstrated empirically. We assess sea-ice changes in KB together with changes in polar bear movements, seasonal ranges, body condition, and reproductive metrics obtained from capture-recapture (physical and genetic) and satellite telemetry studies during two study periods (1993-1997 and 2012-2016). The annual cycle of sea-ice habitat in KB shifted from a year-round ice platform (~50% coverage in summer) in the 1990s to nearly complete melt-out in summer (<5% coverage) in the 2010s. The mean duration between sea-ice retreat and advance increased from 109 to 160 days (p = .004). Between the 1990s and 2010s, adult female (AF) seasonal ranges more than doubled in spring and summer and were significantly larger in all months. Body condition scores improved for all ages and both sexes. Mean litter sizes of cubs-of-the-year (C0s) and yearlings (C1s), and the number of C1s per AF, did not change between decades. The date of spring sea-ice retreat in the previous year was positively correlated with C1 litter size, suggesting smaller litters following years with earlier sea-ice breakup. Our study provides evidence for range expansion, improved body condition, and stable reproductive performance in the KB polar bear subpopulation. These changes, together with a likely increasing subpopulation abundance, may reflect the shift from thick, multiyear ice to thinner, seasonal ice with higher biological productivity. The duration of these benefits is unknown because, under unmitigated climate change, continued sea-ice loss is expected to eventually have negative demographic and ecological effects on all polar bears.

The stress of Arctic warming on polar bears

Arctic ecosystems are changing rapidly in response to climate warming. While Arctic mammals are highly evolved to these extreme environments, particularly with respect to their stress axis, some species may have limited capacity to adapt to this change. We examined changes in key components of the stress axis (cortisol and its carrier protein-corticosteroid binding globulin [CBG]) in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from western Hudson Bay (N = 300) over a 33 year period (1983-2015) during which time the ice-free period was increasing. Changing sea ice phenology limits spring hunting opportunities and extends the period of onshore fasting. We assessed the response of polar bears to a standardized stressor (helicopter pursuit, darting, and immobilization) during their onshore fasting period (late summer-autumn) and quantified the serum levels of the maximum corticosteroid binding capacity (MCBC) of CBG, the serum protein that binds cortisol strongly, and free cortisol (FC). We quantified bear condition (age, sex, female with cubs or not, fat condition), sea ice (breakup in spring-summer, 1 year lagged freeze-up in autumn), and duration of fasting until sample collection as well as cumulative impacts of the latter environmental traits from the previous year. Data were separated into "good" years (1983-1990) when conditions were thought to be optimal and "poor" years (1991-2015) when sea ice conditions deteriorated and fasting on land was extended. MCBC explained 39.4% of the variation in the good years, but only 28.1% in the poor ones, using both biological and environmental variables. MCBC levels decreased with age. Changes in FC were complex, but more poorly explained. Counterintuitively, MCBC levels increased with increased time onshore, 1 year lag effects, and in poor ice years. We conclude that MCBC is a biomarker of stress in polar bears and that the changes we document are a consequence of climate warming.

Interrelated ecological impacts of climate change on an apex predator

Climate change has broad ecological implications for species that rely on sensitive habitats. For some top predators, loss of habitat is expected to lead to cascading behavioral, nutritional, and reproductive changes that ultimately accelerate population declines. In the case of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus), declining Arctic sea ice reduces access to prey and lengthens seasonal fasting periods. We used a novel combination of physical capture, biopsy darting, and visual aerial observation data to project reproductive performance for polar bears by linking sea ice loss to changes in habitat use, body condition (i.e., fatness), and cub production. Satellite telemetry data from 43 (1991-1997) and 38 (2009-2015) adult female polar bears in the Baffin Bay subpopulation showed that bears now spend an additional 30 d on land (90 d in total) in the 2000s compared to the 1990s, a change closely correlated with changes in spring sea ice breakup and fall sea ice formation. Body condition declined for all sex, age, and reproductive classes and was positively correlated with sea ice availability in the current and previous year. Furthermore, cub litter size was positively correlated with maternal condition and spring breakup date (i.e., later breakup leading to larger litters), and negatively correlated with the duration of the ice-free period (i.e., longer ice-free periods leading to smaller litters). Based on these relationships, we projected reproductive performance three polar bear generations into the future (approximately 35 yr). Results indicate that two-cub litters, previously the norm, could largely disappear from Baffin Bay as sea ice loss continues. Our findings demonstrate how concurrent analysis of multiple data types collected over long periods from polar bears can provide a mechanistic understanding of the ecological implications of climate change. This information is needed for long-term conservation planning, which includes quantitative harvest risk assessments that incorporate estimated or assumed trends in future environmental carrying capacity.

Fatty acid-based diet estimates suggest ringed seal remain the main prey of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears despite recent use of onshore food resources

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the southern Beaufort Sea (SB) subpopulation have traditionally fed predominantly upon ice-seals; however, as the proportion of the subpopulation using onshore habitat has recently increased, foraging on land-based resources, including remains of subsistence-harvested bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) and colonial nesting seabirds has been observed. Adipose tissue samples were collected from this subpopulation during the springs of 2013-2016 and analyzed for fatty acid signatures. Diet estimates were generated for the proportional consumption of ringed seal (Pusa hispida), bearded seal (Erignathus barbatus), and beluga whale (Delphinapterus leucas), relative to onshore foods, including bowhead whale remains and seabird, as represented by black guillemot (Cepphus grylle mandtii) nestlings and eggs. Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA) estimated that the ice-obligate prey, ringed seal, remained the predominant prey species of SB polar bears (46.4 ± 1.8%), with much lower consumption of bearded seal (19.6 ± 2.0%), seabird (17.0 ± 1.2%), bowhead whale (15.0 ± 1.4%), and hardly any beluga whale (2.0 ± 0.5%). Adult and subadult females appeared to depend more on the traditional ringed seal prey than adult and subadult males. Diet estimates of SB polar bears showed significant interannual variability for all prey (F 12, 456 = 3.17, p < .001). Longer-term estimates suggested that both types of onshore prey, bowhead whale remains and seabird, have represented a moderate proportion of the food resources used by SB polar bears since at least the start of the 21st Century.

Modeling optimal responses and fitness consequences in a changing Arctic

Animals must balance a series of costs and benefits while trying to maximize their fitness. For example, an individual may need to choose how much energy to allocate to reproduction versus growth, or how much time to spend on vigilance versus foraging. Their decisions depend on complex interactions between environmental conditions, behavioral plasticity, reproductive biology, and energetic demands. As animals respond to novel environmental conditions caused by climate change, the optimal decisions may shift. Stochastic dynamic programming provides a flexible modeling framework with which to explore these trade-offs, but this method has not yet been used to study possible changes in optimal trade-offs caused by climate change. We created a stochastic dynamic programming model capturing trade-off decisions required by an individual adult female polar bear (Ursus maritimus) as well as the fitness consequences of her decisions. We predicted optimal foraging decisions throughout her lifetime as well as the energetic thresholds below which it is optimal for her to abandon a reproductive attempt. To explore the effects of climate change, we shortened the spring feeding period by up to 3 weeks, which led to predictions of riskier foraging behavior and higher reproductive thresholds. The resulting changes in fitness may be interpreted as a best-case scenario, where bears adapt instantaneously and optimally to new environmental conditions. If the spring feeding period was reduced by 1 week, her expected fitness declined by 15%, and if reduced by 3 weeks, expected fitness declined by 68%. This demonstrates an effective way to explore a species' optimal response to a changing landscape of costs and benefits and highlights the fact that small annual effects can result in large cumulative changes in expected lifetime fitness.

Global change-driven use of onshore habitat impacts polar bear faecal microbiota

The gut microbiota plays a critical role in host health, yet remains poorly studied in wild species. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus), key indicators of Arctic ecosystem health and environmental change, are currently affected by rapid shifts in habitat that may alter gut homeostasis. Declining sea ice has led to a divide in the southern Beaufort Sea polar bear subpopulation such that an increasing proportion of individuals now inhabit onshore coastal regions during the open-water period ('onshore bears') while others continue to exhibit their typical behaviour of remaining on the ice ('offshore bears'). We propose that bears that have altered their habitat selection in response to climate change will exhibit a distinct gut microbiota diversity and composition, which may ultimately have important consequences for their health. Here, we perform the first assessment of abundance and diversity in the faecal microbiota of wild polar bears using 16S rRNA Illumina technology. We find that bacterial diversity is significantly higher in onshore bears compared to offshore bears. The most enriched OTU abundance in onshore bears belonged to the phylum Proteobacteria, while the most depleted OTU abundance within onshore bears was seen in the phylum Firmicutes. We conclude that climate-driven changes in polar bear land use are associated with distinct microbial communities. In doing so, we present the first case of global change mediated alterations in the gut microbiota of a free-roaming wild animal.

Accounting for phenology in the analysis of animal movement

The analysis of animal tracking data provides important scientific understanding and discovery in ecology. Observations of animal trajectories using telemetry devices provide researchers with information about the way animals interact with their environment and each other. For many species, specific geographical features in the landscape can have a strong effect on behavior. Such features may correspond to a single point (eg, dens or kill sites), or to higher dimensional subspaces (eg, rivers or lakes). Features may be relatively static in time (eg, coastlines or home-range centers), or may be dynamic (eg, sea ice extent or areas of high-quality forage for herbivores). We introduce a novel model for animal movement that incorporates active selection for dynamic features in a landscape. Our approach is motivated by the study of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) movement. During the sea ice melt season, polar bears spend much of their time on sea ice above shallow, biologically productive water where they hunt seals. The changing distribution and characteristics of sea ice throughout the year mean that the location of valuable habitat is constantly shifting. We develop a model for the movement of polar bears that accounts for the effect of this important landscape feature. We introduce a two-stage procedure for approximate Bayesian inference that allows us to analyze over 300 000 observed locations of 186 polar bears from 2012 to 2016. We use our model to estimate a spatial boundary of interest to wildlife managers that separates two subpopulations of polar bears from the Beaufort and Chukchi seas.

Reference intervals for blood-based biochemical analytes of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears

Accurate reference intervals (RIs) for commonly measured blood-based analytes are essential for health monitoring programmes. Baseline values for a panel of analytes can be used to monitor physiologic and pathophysiologic processes such as organ function, electrolyte balance and protein catabolism. Our reference population includes 651 serum samples from polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the southern Beaufort Sea (SB) subpopulation sampled in Alaska, USA, between 1983 and 2016. To establish RI for 13 biochemical analytes, we defined specific criteria for characterizing the reference population and relevant subgroups. To account for differences in seasonal life history characteristics, we determined separate RI for the spring and fall seasons, when prey availability and energetic requirements of bears differ. We established RI for five subgroups in spring based on sex, age class and denning status, and three subgroups in fall based on sex and age class in females only. Alkaline phosphatase activities were twice as high in subadult as in adult polar bears in spring (z _males = 4.08, P _males < 0.001, z _females = 3.90, P _females < 0.001) and did not differ between seasons. Denning females had significantly higher glucose concentrations than non-denning females (z = 4.94, P < 0.001), possibly reflecting differences in energy expenditure during lactation. A total of 10 of the 13 analytes differed significantly between seasons in either males or females; however, the physiologic importance of these differences may be minimal. Establishing these RIs allows for temporal monitoring of polar bear health in the SB and may prove useful for assessing and monitoring additional polar bear subpopulations in a changing Arctic environment.

SURVEY OF ARCTIC ALASKAN WILDLIFE FOR INFLUENZA A ANTIBODIES: LIMITED EVIDENCE FOR EXPOSURE OF MAMMALS

Influenza A viruses (IAVs) are maintained in wild waterbirds and have the potential to infect a broad range of species, including wild mammals. The Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska supports a diverse suite of species, including waterfowl that are common hosts of IAVs. Mammals co-occur with geese and other migratory waterbirds during the summer breeding season, providing a plausible mechanism for interclass transmission of IAVs. To estimate IAV seroprevalence and identify the subtypes to which geese, loons, Arctic foxes ( Vulpes lagopus), caribou ( Rangifer tarandus), and polar bears ( Ursus maritimus) are potentially exposed, we used a blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (bELISA) and a hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay to screen for antibodies to IAVs in samples collected during spring and summer of 2012-16. Apparent IAV seroprevalence using the bELISA was 50.3% in geese (range by species: 46-52.8%), 9% in loons (range by species: 3-20%), and 0.4% in Arctic foxes. We found no evidence for exposure to IAVs in polar bears or caribou by either assay. Among geese, we estimated detection probability from replicate bELISA analyses to be 0.92 and also found good concordance (>85%) between results from bELISA and HI assays, which identified antibodies reactive to H1, H6, and H9 subtype IAVs. In contrast, the HI assay detected antibodies in only one of seven loon samples that were positive by bELISA; that sample had low titers to both H4 and H5 IAV subtypes. Our results provide evidence that a relatively high proportion of waterbirds breeding on the Arctic Coastal Plain are exposed to IAVs, although it is unknown whether such exposure occurs locally or on staging or wintering grounds. In contrast, seroprevalence of IAVs in concomitant Arctic mammals is apparently low.

Development of on-shore behavior among polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the southern Beaufort Sea: inherited or learned?

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are experiencing rapid and substantial changes to their environment due to global climate change. Polar bears of the southern Beaufort Sea (SB) have historically spent most of the year on the sea ice. However, recent reports from Alaska indicate that the proportion of the SB subpopulation observed on-shore during late summer and early fall has increased. Our objective was to investigate whether this on-shore behavior has developed through genetic inheritance, asocial learning, or through social learning. From 2010 to 2013, genetic data were collected from SB polar bears in the fall via hair snags and remote biopsy darting on-shore and in the spring from captures and remote biopsy darting on the sea ice. Bears were categorized as either on-shore or off-shore individuals based on their presence on-shore during the fall. Levels of genetic relatedness, first-order relatives, mother-offspring pairs, and father-offspring pairs were determined and compared within and between the two categories: on-shore versus off-shore. Results suggested transmission of on-shore behavior through either genetic inheritance or social learning as there was a higher than expected number of first-order relatives exhibiting on-shore behavior. Genetic relatedness and parentage data analyses were in concurrence with this finding, but further revealed mother-offspring social learning as the primary mechanism responsible for the development of on-shore behavior. Recognizing that on-shore behavior among polar bears was predominantly transmitted via social learning from mothers to their offspring has implications for future management and conservation as sea ice continues to decline.

Choose Your Poison-Space-Use Strategy Influences Pollutant Exposure in Barents Sea Polar Bears

Variation in space-use is common within mammal populations. In polar bears, Ursus maritimus, some individuals follow the sea ice (offshore bears) whereas others remain nearshore yearlong (coastal bears). We studied pollutant exposure in relation to space-use patterns (offshore vs coastal) in adult female polar bears from the Barents Sea equipped with satellite collars (2000-2014, n = 152). First, we examined the differences in home range (HR) size and position, body condition, and diet proxies (nitrogen and carbon stable isotopes, n = 116) between offshore and coastal space-use. Second, we investigated how HR, space-use, body condition, and diet were related to plasma concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) ( n = 113), perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs; n = 92), and hydroxylated-PCBs ( n = 109). Offshore females were in better condition and had a more specialized diet than did coastal females. PCBs, OCPs, and hydroxylated-PCB concentrations were not related to space-use strategy, yet PCB concentrations increased with increasing latitude, and hydroxylated-PCB concentrations were positively related to HR size. PFAS concentrations were 30-35% higher in offshore bears compared to coastal bears and also increased eastward. On the basis of the results we conclude that space-use of Barents Sea female polar bears influences their pollutant exposure, in particular plasma concentrations of PFAS.

Environmental and behavioral changes may influence the exposure of an Arctic apex predator to pathogens and contaminants

Recent decline of sea ice habitat has coincided with increased use of land by polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the southern Beaufort Sea (SB), which may alter the risks of exposure to pathogens and contaminants. We assayed blood samples from SB polar bears to assess prior exposure to the pathogens Brucella spp., Toxoplasma gondii, Coxiella burnetii, Francisella tularensis, and Neospora caninum, estimate concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs), and evaluate risk factors associated with exposure to pathogens and POPs. We found that seroprevalence of Brucella spp. and T. gondii antibodies likely increased through time, and provide the first evidence of exposure of polar bears to C. burnetii, N. caninum, and F. tularensis. Additionally, the odds of exposure to T. gondii were greater for bears that used land than for bears that remained on the sea ice during summer and fall, while mean concentrations of the POP chlordane (ΣCHL) were lower for land-based bears. Changes in polar bear behavior brought about by climate-induced modifications to the Arctic marine ecosystem may increase exposure risk to certain pathogens and alter contaminant exposure pathways.

Polar bears experience skeletal muscle atrophy in response to food deprivation and reduced activity in winter and summer

When reducing activity and using stored energy during seasonal food shortages, animals risk degradation of skeletal muscles, although some species avoid or minimize the resulting atrophy while experiencing these conditions during hibernation. Polar bears may be food deprived and relatively inactive during winter (when pregnant females hibernate and hunting success declines for other demographic groups) as well as summer (when sea ice retreats from key foraging habitats). We investigated muscle atrophy in samples of biceps femoris collected from free-ranging polar bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) throughout their annual cycle. Atrophy was most pronounced in April-May as a result of food deprivation during the previous winter, with muscles exhibiting reduced protein concentration, increased water content, and lower creatine kinase mRNA. These animals increased feeding and activity in spring (when seal prey becomes more available), initiating a period of muscle recovery. During the following ice melt of late summer, ~30% of SBS bears abandon retreating sea ice for land; in August, these 'shore' bears exhibited no muscle atrophy, indicating that they had fully recovered from winter food deprivation. These individuals subsequently scavenged whale carcasses deposited by humans and by October, had retained good muscle condition. In contrast, ~70% of SBS bears follow the ice north in late summer, into deep water with less prey. These 'ice' bears fast; by October, they exhibited muscle protein loss and rapid changes in myosin heavy-chain isoforms in response to reduced activity. These findings indicate that, unlike other bears during winter hibernation, polar bears without food in summer cannot mitigate atrophy. Consequently, prolonged summer fasting resulting from climate change-induced ice loss creates a risk of greater muscle atrophy and reduced abilities to travel and hunt.