Exploring the Distribution of the Spreading Lethal Salamander Chytrid Fungus in Its Invasive Range in Europe - A Macroecological Approach

Invasibility of a North American soil ecosystem to amphibian-killing fungal pathogens

North American salamanders are threatened by intercontinental spread of chytridiomycosis, a deadly disease caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). To predict potential dispersal of Bsal spores to salamander habitats, we evaluated the capacity of soil microbial communities to resist invasion. We determined the degree of habitat invasibility using soils from five locations throughout the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, a region with a high abundance of susceptible hosts. Our experimental design consisted of replicate soil microcosms exposed to different propagule pressures of the non-native pathogen, Bsal, and an introduced but endemic pathogen, B. dendrobatidis (Bd). To compare growth and competitive interactions, we used quantitative PCR, live/dead cell viability assays, and full-length 16S rRNA sequencing. We found that soil microcosms with intact bacterial communities inhibited both Bsal and Bd growth, but inhibitory capacity diminished with increased propagule pressure. Bsal showed greater persistence than Bd. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) identified the family Burkolderiaceae as increasing in relative abundance with the decline of both pathogens. Although our findings provide evidence of environmental filtering in soils, such barriers weakened in response to pathogen type and propagule pressure, showing that habitats vary their invasibility based on properties of their local microbial communities.

Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Three Rare Salamanders (Liua shihi, Pseudohynobius jinfo, and Tylototriton wenxianensis) in Chongqing, China, and Their Conservation Implications

The Wushan Salamander (Liua shihi), Jinfo Salamander (Pseudohynobius jinfo), and Wenxian Knobby Salamander (Tylototriton wenxianensis) are rare national Class II protected wild animals in China. We performed MaxEnt modeling to predict and analyze the potential distribution and trends of these species in Chongqing under current and future climate conditions. Species distribution data were primarily obtained from field surveys, supplemented by museum collections and the existing literature. These efforts yielded 636 records, including 43 for P. jinfo, 23 for T. wenxianensis, and 570 for L. shihi. Duplicate records within the same 100 m × 100 m grid cell were removed using ENMTools, resulting in 10, 12, and 58 valid distribution points for P. jinfo, T. wenxianensis, and L. shihi, respectively. The optimization of feature class parameters (FC) and the regularization multiplier (RM) were applied using R package "ENMeval 2.0" to establish the optimal model with MaxEnt. The refined models were applied to simulate the suitable distribution areas for the three species. The results indicate that the current suitable habitat area for L. shihi accounted for 9.72% of the whole region of the Chongqing municipality. It is projected that, by 2050, the proportion of suitable habitat will increase to 12.54% but will decrease to 11.98% by 2070 and further decline to 8.80% by 2090. The current suitable habitat area for P. jinfo accounted for 1.08% of the whole region of the Chongqing municipality, which is expected to decrease to 0.31%% by 2050, 0.20% by 2070, and 0.07% by 2090. The current suitable habitat area for T. wenxianensis accounted for 0.81% of the whole region of the Chongqing municipality, which is anticipated to decrease to 0.37% by 2050, 0.21% by 2070, and 0.06% by 2090. Human disturbance, climate variables, and habitat characteristics are the primary factors influencing the distribution of three salamander species in Chongqing. The proximity to roads significantly impacts L. shihi, while climate conditions mainly affect P. jinfo, and the distance to water sources is crucial for T. wenxianensis. The following suggestions were made based on key variables identified for each species: (1) For L. shihi, it is imperative to minimize human disturbances and preserve areas without roads and the existing vegetation within nature reserves to ensure their continued existence. (2) For P. jinfo, the conservation of high-altitude habitats is of utmost importance, along with the reduction in disturbances caused by roads to maintain the species' ecological niche. (3) For T. wenxianensis, the protection of aquatic habitats is crucial. Additionally, efforts to mitigate the impacts of road construction and enhance public awareness are essential for the preservation of this species and the connectivity of its habitats.

The two chytrid pathogens of amphibians in Eurasia-climatic niches and future expansion

BACKGROUND

Climate affects the thermal adaptation and distribution of hosts, and drives the spread of Chytridiomycosis-a keratin-associated infectious disease of amphibians caused by the sister pathogens Batrachochytrium dendrobatidi (Bd) and B. salamandrivorans (Bsal). We focus on their climate-pathogen relationships in Eurasia, the only region where their geographical distributions overlap. Eurasia harbours invaded and native areas of both pathogens and the natural habitats where they co-exist, making it an ideal region to examine their environmental niche correlations. Our understanding of how climate change will affect their distribution is broadened by the differences in climate correlates and niche characteristics between Bd and Bsal in Asia and Europe. This knowledge has potential conservation implications, informing future spread of the disease in different regions.

RESULTS

We quantified the environmental niche overlap between Bd and Bsal in Eurasia using niche analyses. Results revealed partial overlap in the niche with a unique 4% of non-overlapping values for Bsal, suggesting segregation along certain climate axes. Bd tolerates higher temperature fluctuations, while Bsal requires more stable, lower temperature and wetter conditions. Projections of their Realized Climatic Niches (RCNs) to future conditions show a larger expansion of suitable ranges (SRs) for Bd compared to Bsal in both Asia and Europe, with their centroids shifting in different directions. Notably, both pathogens' highly suitable areas in Asia are expected to shrink significantly, especially under the extreme climate scenarios. In Europe, they are expected to expand significantly.

CONCLUSIONS

Climate change will impact or increase disease risk to amphibian hosts, particularly in Europe. Given the shared niche space of the two pathogens across available climate gradients, as has already been witnessed in Eurasia with an increased range expansion and niche overlap due to climate change, we expect that regions where Bsal is currently absent but salamanders are present, and where Bd is already prevalent, may be conducive for the spread of Bsal.

Predicted Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infection sites in Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana using the species distribution model maxent

The fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) which causes that amphibian disease chytridiomycosis is expanding its worldwide range from an Asian origin, infecting amphibians in a growing number of countries. Modelling the potential range of this amphibian pathogen using environmental variables and presence data could advance our understanding of at-risk areas and species in locations with limited surveillance to date. We used a species distribution model to assess Bd habitat suitability in the three Guiana's (Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana) in South America. The model output showed that all three countries have substantial areas where Bd could grow and proliferate, and maximum temperature of the warmest month was the top predictor of suitable Bd habitat, inversely correlated with modeled Bd occurrence. Predicted Bd infection areas in Guyana and French Guiana were large and localized whereas possible sites in Suriname were more scattered throughout the country. The areas projected as potential suitable in Suriname were mostly high elevation regions. These results could help inform efficiencies for development of a proactive monitoring program that could alert managers of novel Bd outbreaks for focused mitigation actions to forestall the spread of this amphibian disease.

Widespread occurrence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in Ontario, Canada, and predicted habitat suitability for the emerging Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans

Chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungi Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis and Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans, is associated with massive amphibian mortality events worldwide and with some species’ extinctions. Previous ecological niche models suggest that B. dendrobatidis is not well‐suited to northern, temperate climates, but these predictions have often relied on datasets in which northern latitudes are underrepresented. Recent northern detections of B. dendrobatidis suggest that these models may have underestimated the suitability of higher latitudes for this fungus. We used qPCR to test for B. dendrobatidis in 1,041 non‐invasive epithelial swab samples from 18 species of amphibians collected across 735,345 km² in Ontario and Akimiski Island (Nunavut), Canada. We detected the pathogen in 113 samples (10.9%) from 11 species. Only one specimen exhibited potential clinical signs of disease. We used these data to produce six Species Distribution Models of B. dendrobatidis, which classified half of the study area as potential habitat for the fungus. We also tested each sample for B. salamandrivorans, an emerging pathogen that is causing alarming declines in European salamanders, but is not yet detected in North America. We did not detect B. salamandrivorans in any of the samples, providing a baseline for future surveillance. We assessed the potential risk of future introduction by comparing salamander richness to temperature‐dependent mortality, predicted by a previous exposure study. Areas with the highest species diversity and predicted mortality risk extended 60,530 km² across southern Ontario, highlighting the potential threat B. salamandrivorans poses to northern Nearctic amphibians. Preventing initial introduction will require coordinated, transboundary regulation of trade in amphibians (including frogs that can carry and disperse B. salamandrivorans), and surveillance of the pathways of introduction (e.g., water and wildlife). Our results can inform surveillance for both pathogens and efforts to mitigate the spread of chytridiomycosis through wild populations.

Obligations of Researchers and Managers to Respect Wetlands: Practical Solutions to Minimizing Field Monitoring Impacts

Research and field monitoring can disturb wetland integrity. Adoption of ethical field practices is needed to limit monitoring induced stressors such as trampling, non-native seed and invertebrate dispersal, and disease and fungal spread. We identify a linear pathway of deterioration highlighting stressors that can progress to cumulative impacts, consequences, and losses at the site scale. The first step to minimize disturbance is to assess and classify the current ecosystem quality. We present a tiered framework for wetland classification and link preventative measures to the wetland tier. Preventative measures are recommended at various intensities respective to the wetland tier, with higher tiered wetlands requiring more intense preventative measures. In addition, preventative measures vary by time of implementation (before, during, and after the wetland visit) to mitigate impacts at various temporal scales. The framework is designed to increase transparency of field monitoring impacts and to promote the adoption of preventative measures. Implementing preventative measures can build accountability and foster a greater appreciation for our roles as researchers and managers in protecting wetlands.

Gaps in global wildlife trade monitoring leave amphibians vulnerable

As the biodiversity crisis continues, we must redouble efforts to understand and curb pressures pushing species closer to extinction. One major driver is the unsustainable trade of wildlife. Trade in internationally regulated species gains the most research attention, but this only accounts for a minority of traded species and we risk failing to appreciate the scale and impacts of unregulated legal trade. Despite being legal, trade puts pressure on wild species via direct collection, introduced pathogens, and invasive species. Smaller species-rich vertebrates, such as reptiles, fish, and amphibians, may be particularly vulnerable to trading because of gaps in regulations, small distributions, and demand of novel species. Here, we combine data from five sources: online web searches in six languages, Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) trade database, Law Enforcement Management Information System (LEMIS) trade inventory, IUCN assessments, and a recent literature review, to characterise the global trade in amphibians, and also map use by purpose including meat, pets, medicinal, and for research. We show that 1215 species are being traded (17% of amphibian species), almost three times previous recorded numbers, 345 are threatened, and 100 Data Deficient or unassessed. Traded species origin hotspots include South America, China, and Central Africa; sources indicate 42% of amphibians are taken from the wild. Newly described species can be rapidly traded (mean time lag of 6.5 years), including threatened and unassessed species. The scale and limited regulation of the amphibian trade, paired with the triptych of connected pressures (collection, pathogens, invasive species), warrants a re-examination of the wildlife trade status quo, application of the precautionary principle in regard to wildlife trade, and a renewed push to achieve global biodiversity goals.

In the last few decades, exotic pets have become much more common. In the UK in 2008, reptiles and amphibians were more popular than dogs, with over eight million in captivity. But while almost all pet cats and dogs are born and bred in captivity, exotic pets are often taken from the wild, putting species and their habitats at risk.

An international trade agreement called the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) strives to prevent unsustainable animal trade. But to get CITES protection, species depend on data showing that wildlife trade threatens their survival. In addition, their range countries need to first propose them to be listed. For most wild animal species, there are no data on population size or population decline. In the case of amphibians, CITES regulates the trade of just 2.5% of species. This leaves the rest with no protection from overarching international trade regulations. To protect these animals, researchers need to find out which species are in trade, where they are coming from, and how many are already threatened.

To address this, Hughes, Marshall and Strine combined data from five sources, including official CITES trade records, recent research and an online search for amphibian sales in six languages. The data showed evidence of trade in at least 1,215 amphibian species, representing 17% of all amphibians. The figure is three times higher than previous estimates. Of the species in trade, more than one in five is vulnerable to extinction, endangered, or critically endangered. For a further 100 of the traded species, data on population were unavailable. Moreover, analysis of the origins of traded individuals showed that around 42% came from the wild. Tropical parts of the world had the highest number of species in trade, but the data showed exchanges happening across the globe.

Unsustainable wildlife trade can have devastating consequences for wild animals. It has already driven at least 21 reptile species to extinction, and data of amphibian species are unknown. To prevent further species going extinct, legal wildlife trade should follow the precautionary principle when it comes to wildlife trade. Rather than allowing people to trade a species until CITES regulates it, a blanket ban should come into force for species that have not been assessed or are threatened. Trade would be able to resume for a species only when assessments show that it would not cause major population decline, or secure, captive breeding facilities can be guaranteed.

Landscape epidemiology of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans: reconciling data limitations and conservation urgency

Starting in 2010, rapid fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) population declines in northwestern Europe heralded the emergence of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal), a salamander-pathogenic chytrid fungus. Bsal poses an imminent threat to global salamander diversity owing to its wide host range, high pathogenicity, and long-term persistence in ecosystems. While there is a pressing need to develop further research and conservation actions, data limitations inherent to recent pathogen emergence obscure necessary insights into Bsal disease ecology. Here, we use a hierarchical modeling framework to describe Bsal landscape epidemiology of outbreak sites in light of these methodological challenges. Using model selection and machine learning, we find that Bsal presence is associated with humid and relatively cool, stable climates. Outbreaks are generally located in areas characterized by low landscape heterogeneity and low steepness of slope. We further find an association between Bsal presence and high trail density, suggesting that human-mediated spread may increase risk for spillover between populations. We then use distribution modeling to show that favorable conditions occur in lowlands influenced by the North Sea, where increased survey effort is needed to determine how Bsal impacts local newt populations, but also in hill- and mountain ranges in northeastern France and the lower half of Germany. Finally, connectivity analyses suggest that these hill- and mountain ranges may act as stepping stones for further spread southward. Our results provide initial insight into regional environmental conditions underlying Bsal epizootics, present updated invasibility predictions for northwestern Europe, and lead us to discuss a wide variety of potential survey and research actions needed to advance future conservation and mitigation efforts.

Landscape Connectivity Limits the Predicted Impact of Fungal Pathogen Invasion

Infectious diseases are major drivers of biodiversity loss. The risk of fungal diseases to the survival of threatened animals in nature is determined by a complex interplay between host, pathogen and environment. We here predict the risk of invasion of populations of threatened Mediterranean salamanders of the genus Lyciasalamandra by the pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans by combining field sampling and lab trials. In 494 samples across all seven species of Lyciasalamandra, B. salamandrivorans was found to be absent. Single exposure to a low (1000) number of fungal zoospores resulted in fast buildup of lethal infections in three L. helverseni. Thermal preference of the salamanders was well within the thermal envelope of the pathogen and body temperatures never exceeded the fungus' thermal critical maximum, limiting the salamanders' defense opportunities. The relatively low thermal host preference largely invalidates macroclimatic based habitat suitability predictions and, combined with current pathogen absence and high host densities, suggests a high probability of local salamander population declines upon invasion by B. salamandrivorans. However, the unfavorable landscape that shaped intraspecific host genetic diversity, lack of known alternative hosts and rapid host mortality after infection present barriers to further, natural pathogen dispersal between populations and thus species extinction. The risk of anthropogenic spread stresses the importance of biosecurity in amphibian habitats.

Host density and habitat structure influence host contact rates and Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans transmission

Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) is an emerging invasive pathogen that is highly pathogenic to salamander species. Modeling infection dynamics in this system can facilitate proactive efforts to mitigate this pathogen's impact on North American species. Given its widespread distribution and high abundance, the eastern newt (Notophthalmus viridescens) has the potential to significantly influence Bsal epidemiology. We designed experiments to 1) estimate contact rates given different host densities and habitat structure and 2) estimate the probability of transmission from infected to susceptible individuals. Using parameter estimates from data generated during these experiments, we modeled infection and disease outcomes for a population of newts using a system of differential equations. We found that host contact rates were density-dependent, and that adding habitat structure reduced contacts. The probability of Bsal transmission given contact between newts was very high (>90%) even at early stages of infection. Our simulations show rapid transmission of Bsal among individuals following pathogen introduction, with infection prevalence exceeding 90% within one month and >80% mortality of newts in three months. Estimates of basic reproductive rate (R₀) of Bsal for eastern newts were 1.9 and 3.2 for complex and simple habitats, respectively. Although reducing host density and increasing habitat complexity might decrease transmission, these management strategies may be ineffective at stopping Bsal invasion in eastern newt populations due to this species’ hyper-susceptibility.

Potential risk of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans in Mexico

The recent decline in populations of European salamanders caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) has generated worldwide concern, as it is a major threat to amphibians. Evaluation of the areas most suitable for the establishment of Bsal combined with analysis of the distribution of salamander species could be used to generate and implement biosecurity measures and protect biodiversity at sites with high salamander diversity. In this study, we identified the areas most suitable for the establishment of Bsal in Mexico. Mexico has the second-highest salamander species diversity in the world; thus, we identified areas moderately to highly suitable for the establishment of Bsal with high salamander diversity as potential hotspots for surveillance. Central and Southern Mexico were identified as high-risk zones, with 13 hotspots where 30% of Mexican salamander species occur, including range-restricted species and endangered species. We propose that these hotspots should be thoroughly monitored for the presence of Bsal to prevent the spread of the pathogen if it is introduced to the country.

Emerging threats and persistent conservation challenges for freshwater biodiversity

In the 12 years since Dudgeon et al. (2006) reviewed major pressures on freshwater ecosystems, the biodiversity crisis in the world's lakes, reservoirs, rivers, streams and wetlands has deepened. While lakes, reservoirs and rivers cover only 2.3% of the Earth's surface, these ecosystems host at least 9.5% of the Earth's described animal species. Furthermore, using the World Wide Fund for Nature's Living Planet Index, freshwater population declines (83% between 1970 and 2014) continue to outpace contemporaneous declines in marine or terrestrial systems. The Anthropocene has brought multiple new and varied threats that disproportionately impact freshwater systems. We document 12 emerging threats to freshwater biodiversity that are either entirely new since 2006 or have since intensified: (i) changing climates; (ii) e-commerce and invasions; (iii) infectious diseases; (iv) harmful algal blooms; (v) expanding hydropower; (vi) emerging contaminants; (vii) engineered nanomaterials; (viii) microplastic pollution; (ix) light and noise; (x) freshwater salinisation; (xi) declining calcium; and (xii) cumulative stressors. Effects are evidenced for amphibians, fishes, invertebrates, microbes, plants, turtles and waterbirds, with potential for ecosystem-level changes through bottom-up and top-down processes. In our highly uncertain future, the net effects of these threats raise serious concerns for freshwater ecosystems. However, we also highlight opportunities for conservation gains as a result of novel management tools (e.g. environmental flows, environmental DNA) and specific conservation-oriented actions (e.g. dam removal, habitat protection policies, managed relocation of species) that have been met with varying levels of success. Moving forward, we advocate hybrid approaches that manage fresh waters as crucial ecosystems for human life support as well as essential hotspots of biodiversity and ecological function. Efforts to reverse global trends in freshwater degradation now depend on bridging an immense gap between the aspirations of conservation biologists and the accelerating rate of species endangerment.

Risk of survival, establishment and spread of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) in the EU

Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) is an emerging fungal pathogen of salamanders. Despite limited surveillance, Bsal was detected in kept salamanders populations in Belgium, Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, and in wild populations in some regions of Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. According to niche modelling, at least part of the distribution range of every salamander species in Europe overlaps with the climate conditions predicted to be suitable for Bsal. Passive surveillance is considered the most suitable approach for detection of Bsal emergence in wild populations. Demonstration of Bsal absence is considered feasible only in closed populations of kept susceptible species. In the wild, Bsal can spread by both active (e.g. salamanders, anurans) and passive (e.g. birds, water) carriers; it is most likely maintained/spread in infected areas by contacts of salamanders or by interactions with anurans, whereas human activities most likely cause Bsal entry into new areas and populations. In kept amphibians, Bsal contamination via live silent carriers (wild birds and anurans) is considered extremely unlikely. The risk-mitigation measures that were considered the most feasible and effective: (i) for ensuring safer international or intra-EU trade of live salamanders, are: ban or restrictions on salamander imports, hygiene procedures and good practice manuals; (ii) for protecting kept salamanders from Bsal, are: identification and treatment of positive collections; (iii) for on-site protection of wild salamanders, are: preventing translocation of wild amphibians and release/return to the wild of kept/temporarily housed wild salamanders, and setting up contact points/emergency teams for passive surveillance. Combining several risk-mitigation measures improve the overall effectiveness. It is recommended to: introduce a harmonised protocol for Bsal detection throughout the EU; improve data acquisition on salamander abundance and distribution; enhance passive surveillance activities; increase public and professionals' awareness; condition any movement of captive salamanders on Bsal known health status.

Dynamics of host populations affected by the emerging fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans

Emerging infectious diseases cause extirpation of wildlife populations. We use an epidemiological model to explore the effects of a recently emerged disease caused by the salamander-killing chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) on host populations, and to evaluate which mitigation measures are most likely to succeed. As individuals do not recover from Bsal, we used a model with the states susceptible, latent and infectious, and parametrized the model using data on host and pathogen taken from the literature and expert opinion. The model suggested that disease outbreaks can occur at very low host densities (one female per hectare). This density is far lower than host densities in the wild. Therefore, all naturally occurring populations are at risk. Bsal can lead to the local extirpation of the host population within a few months. Disease outbreaks are likely to fade out quickly. A spatial variant of the model showed that the pathogen could potentially spread rapidly. As disease mitigation during outbreaks is unlikely to be successful, control efforts should focus on preventing disease emergence and transmission between populations. Thus, this emerging wildlife disease is best controlled through prevention rather than subsequent actions.