Swimming championship finalist positions on success in international swimming competitions

Modelling performance by continents in swimming

Introduction: There is a growing interest in the scientific community about the progression and congruity in the performance of talented participants who complete representing different nations in the most important international events. The prediction of incoming performances is nowadays in demand with the objective of returning in talent investment. Talent identification programs have tried to select and develop sports talent over years. However, to our knowledge, there is a lack of research about success in swimming World Championships (WCs) performance considering continents-country and how successful outcomes are influenced by these variables. Therefore, the primary goal is to analyze the effect of early specialization comparing the performance progression model of the countries gathered by continents. Methods: Participant's data from all Junior and Senior WCs between 2006 and 2017 from International Swimming Federation (FINA). One-way ANOVA, ANCOVA and regression model were used to explain whether the variable category, age, best z-score, experience, and continent influences the performance obtained in Absolute WC. Results: Significant differences (p < 0.01) were found between the average performance obtained by the two different categories (junior: swimmers participating in junior WCs before senior WCs; senior: swimmers participating in senior WCs without previous participation in junior WCs), where swimmers from category junior showed significant better performance's times than seniors, except in America. ANCOVA results showed that generally, the greatest differences where in the earliest ages, with best performance registered in category junior in all the continents. Also, the experience was a significant variable in the general model. Conclusion: Swimmers who had participated in junior category prior absolute obtained better performance's times than those swimmers who participated directly in absolute, in the first participation in senior WC. Thus, early specialization is a key factor to obtain better results in senior WCs for all the continents, except in America.

Race Analysis and Determination of Stroke Frequency - Stroke Length Combinations during the 50-M Freestyle Event

The aims of this study were to: (1) analyze and compare the stroke kinematics between junior and senior elite male swimmers in every section of the race during the 50-m freestyle event, and; (2) identify stroke frequency (SF)-stroke length (SL) combinations on swim speed independently for junior and senior swimmers in each section of the 50-m freestyle event. Eighty-six junior swimmers (2019) and 95 seniors (2021) competing in the 50-m long course meter LEN Championships were analyzed. The t-test independent samples (p ≤ 0.05) were used to compare juniors and seniors. The SF and SL combinations on swim speed were explored using three-way ANOVAs. Senior swimmers were significantly faster in the 50-m race than juniors (p < 0.001). Speed presented the largest significant difference (p < 0.001) in section S0-15 m (start until the 15^th meter mark) being seniors fastest. Both junior and senior swimmers revealed a significant categorization (p < 0.001) by stroke length and stroke frequency in each race section. It was possible to model several SF-SL combinations for seniors and juniors in each section. The fastest swim speed in each section, for seniors and juniors independently, was achieved by a SF-SL combination that may not be the fastest SF or the longest SL. Coaches and swimmers must be aware that despite the 50-m event being an all-out bout, several SF-SL combinations were observed (independently for juniors and seniors), and they differ between race sections.

Being a top swimmer during the early career is not a prerequisite for success: A study on sprinter strokes

OBJECTIVES

To quantify the junior-to-senior successful transition rate in sprint swimming events in elite European performers.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of publicly available competition data collected between 2004 and 2019.

METHODS

The yearly performance of 6631 European swimmers (females = 41.8% of the sample) competing in 50 and 100 m freestyle, backstroke, breaststroke, and butterfly were included in the analysis. The junior-to-senior transition rate was determined as the number of elite junior athletes who maintained their elite status in adulthood. To investigate how the definition of elite may affect the calculation of the transition rate, we operationally defined elite athletes as those ranked in the all-time top 10, 25, 50, and 100 in their category. We also calculated the correlation between junior and senior performances.

RESULTS

The average transition rates ranged, depending on the age of reference, from 10 to 26% in males and from 23 to 33% in females. The transition rate for the top 100 junior swimmers was greater than that for the top 10 swimmers. In general, swimmers who swam 50 m showed a slightly lower transition rate compared with those that swam 100 m. Depending on the age of reference, low-to-moderate correlations were observed between junior and senior peak performances.

CONCLUSIONS

Most elite junior athletes did not maintain the elite level in adulthood. Except for athletes in the last year of the junior category (18 years for males and 17 years for females), junior performances were poorly correlated with senior performances.

Swimming World Championships: Association between Success at the Junior and Senior Level for British Swimmers

The present study examines the association between the success at junior and senior level for British swimmers in World Championships (WCs). It also explores the relationships between swimming performance and the swimmers’ gender, swim stroke, distance, status (finalist, semifinalist and heats) and swimming category. Data were collected for swimmers participating in junior and/or senior World Championships (29,000 entries: 5585 swimmers) from 2006–2017. The final filtered database included only swimmers from the United Kingdom (836 entries: 141 swimmers). A descriptive analysis was made to characterize the swimmers who reached elite status in the senior category. A lineal regression model was run by gender to predict the influence of category, swim stroke, and distance in the results reached in the senior category. The results showed that the ratio of conversion from junior to senior was quite low. Females who participated in both junior and senior WCs were likely to reach top positions in the senior category. Overall, few British swimmers participated in a junior category before the senior level, but female swimmers participating in both junior and senior WCs were likely to reach top positions in the senior category.

Competition-Based Success Factors During the Talent Pathway of Elite Male Swimmers

Marginal differences in race results between top swimmers have evoked the interest in competition-based success factors of long-term athlete development. To identify novel factors for the multi-dimensional model of talent development, the aim of the study was to investigate annual variation in competition performance (ACV), number of races per year, and age. Therefore, 45,398 race results of all male participants (n = 353) competing in individual events, i.e., butterfly, backstroke, breaststroke, freestyle, and individual medley, at the 2018 European Long-Course Swimming Championships (2018EC) were analyzed retrospectively for all 10 years prior to the championships with Pearson's correlation coefficient and multiple linear regression analysis. Higher ranked swimmers at the 2018EC showed significant medium correlations with a greater number of races per year and small but significant correlations with higher ACV in 10 and nine consecutive years, respectively, prior to the championships. Additionally, better swimmers were older than their lower ranked peers (r = −0.21, p < 0.001). Regression model explained a significant proportion of 2018EC ranking for 50 m (47%), 100 m (45%), 200 m (31%), and 400 m races (29%) but not for 800 and 1,500 m races with number of races having the largest effect followed by age and ACV. In conclusion, higher performance variation with results off the personal best in some races did not impair success at the season's main event and young competitors at international championships may benefit from success chances that increase with age. The higher number of races swum per year throughout the career of higher ranked swimmers may have provided learning opportunities and specific adaptations. Future studies should quantify these success factors in a multi-dimensional talent development model.

Variation in competition performance, number of races, and age: Long-term athlete development in elite female swimmers

While talent development and the contributing factors to success are hardly discussed among the experts in the field, the aim of the study was to investigate annual variation in competition performance (AVCP), number of races per year, and age, as potential success factors for international swimming competitions. Data from 40’277 long-course races, performed by all individual female starters (n = 253) at the 2018 European Swimming Championships (2018EC) for all 10 years prior to these championships, were analyzed. Relationships between 2018EC ranking and potential success factors, i.e., AVCP, number of races per year, and age, were determined using Pearson’s correlation coefficient and multiple linear regression analysis. While AVCP was not related to ranking, higher ranked swimmers at the 2018EC swam more races during each of the ten years prior to the championships (P < 0.001). Additionally, older athletes were more successful (r = -0.42, P < 0.001). The regression model explained highly significant proportions (P < 0.001) and 43%, 34%, 35%, 49% of total variance in the 2018EC ranking for 50m, 100m, 200m, and 400m races, respectively. As number of races per year (β = -0.29 –-0.40) had a significant effect on ranking of 50-400m races, and age (β = -0.40 –-0.61) showed a significant effect on ranking over all race distances, number of races per year and age may serve as success factors for international swimming competitions. The larger number of races swum by higher ranked female swimmers may have aided long-term athlete development regarding technical, physiological, and mental skill acquisitions. As older athletes were more successful, female swimmers under the age of peak performance, who did not reach semi-finals or finals, may increase their chances of success in following championships with increased experience.

Analysis of World Championship Swimmers Using a Performance Progression Model

Purpose

The primary aim was to create a performance progression model of elite competitors in the World Swimming Championships from 2006 to 2017 for all strokes and distances. Secondly, to identify the influence of annual ratios of progression, ages of peak performance and junior status on success in senior competitions.

Methods

Data regarding the participants of senior and junior World Championships (WCs) between 2006 and 2017 were obtained from FINA. The final filtered database, after removing those swimmers who just participated in junior WCs, included 4076. Statistical models were used to examine differences between the top senior swimmers (the top 30% best performances; T30) and lower level swimmers (the bottom 70% performances; L70) for minimum age (MA), progress (P) and best junior time (BJ). In order to identify the variables that contribute to reach the T30 group, a logistic regression (LR), stepwise LR and decision tree were applied. To analyze the effect of each variable separately, a simple LR (gross odds ratio) was performed. Ratio probabilities (OR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for each variable.

Results

Swimmer’s BJ and P were higher in the T30 group (p < 0.000). The decision tree showed the greatest explanatory capacity for BJ, followed by P. The MA had a very low explanatory capacity and was not significant in the LR.

Conclusion

Swimmers with exceptional junior performance times, or have a high rate of progress are more likely to be successful at the senior WCs.

Comparing the Pathway to Success in European Countries Competing in the Swimming World Championships

Purpose: This study aimed to compare the performance progression model of the European countries that participated in the World Championships (WCs) from 2006 to 2017. Data from all championships were compared between the top five (1-5) and the next five (6-10) countries on the medal table. The study also identifies the ages of peak performance in senior swimmers, the annual ratio of progression and the effect of junior performance on senior success by these groups of countries. We hypothesized that: (1) countries with swimmers achieving better performances at the Junior WCs would also be higher in the medal ranking at the Senior WCs and (2) a higher annual performance progression in their swimmers increases the chances of countries being ranked in the top 5 at the Senior World Championships. Methods: Participant's data from all Junior and Senior WCs between 2006 and 2017 were obtained from FINA. The final, filtered database included 629 swimmers after removing those participating only in the Junior WCs and selecting swimmers from the top 10 countries. One-way ANOVA, F test, and decision tree methods were used to examine differences between the top (1-5) and the next best (6-10) countries on the medal table for first participation age, annual progress, and best-time in junior and senior championships. Results: There was no difference (p = 0.492 and p = 0.97) between 1-5 and 6-10 ranked countries for best senior time and annual progression, respectively. Countries ranked in the top 5 at the Senior WCs had swimmers with faster times at the Junior WCs (p > 0.001). Decision tree analysis found that best-time at the Junior WC had the greatest explanatory capacity (94%). Conclusion: European countries with swimmers who perform best at the Junior WCs are also likely to be in the top 5 countries that win medals at the Senior WCs.

Influence of early specialization in world-ranked swimmers and general patterns to success

Objectives

The primary goal was to examine the influence of early specialization on the performance of senior elite swimmers. Secondly, to provide information about the influence of swim style, distance, sex, status, country, years of high-level competition (YHLC) and age in swimmer’s performance.

Design

Data was obtained from International Federation of Swimming (FINA) regarding the participants 2006–2017 of junior and senior World Championships (WCs). The final filtered database included 4076 swimmers after removing those participating only in junior WCs.

Method

Cramer V coefficient, double and triple-entry tables were used to measure the relationship between the positions occupied in junior and senior phases. A One-Way ANOVA analysis was used to explain the variables time and rank between swimmers who participated in junior and senior WC or just in senior in all the distances and swim styles (SS). A univariate general linear model (GLM) was used to examine the association between time/rank and category (swimmers that participated previously in junior WC or not); YHLC; country; status (highest finishing position: final/semi-final/heats) and age.

Results

Significant differences (p < .001) were found in the GLM, with Rank as dependent variable, for all the variables. Showing that swimmers that participated previously in junior categories obtained greater results in all the interactions, except in 1500m freestyle. Significant differences (p < .001) were found between the variables position and YHLC, showing the variable position improvements as swimmers attended more WCs.

Conclusion

Competing in junior WC has a positive influence in achieve posteriori success in FINA WC. YHLC have a positive impact to achieve better positions.