The environmental consequences of climate-driven agricultural frontiers

Wilderness areas under threat from global redistribution of agriculture

Agriculture expansion is already the primary cause of terrestrial biodiversity loss globally1,2; yet, to meet the demands of growing human populations, production is expected to have to double by 2050.3 The challenge of achieving expansion without further detriment to the environment and biodiversity is huge and potentially compounded by climate change, which may necessitate shifting agriculture zones poleward to regions with more suitable climates,4 threatening species or areas of conservation priority.5,6,7 However, the possible future overlap between agricultural suitability and wilderness areas, increasingly recognized for significant biodiversity, cultural, and climate regulation values, has not yet been examined. Here, using high-resolution climate data, we model global present and future climate suitability for 1,708 crop varieties. We project, over the next 40 years, that 2.7 million km2 of land within wilderness will become newly suitable for agriculture, equivalent to 7% of the total wilderness area outside Antarctica. The increase in potentially cultivable land in wilderness areas is particularly acute at higher latitudes in the northern hemisphere, where 76.3% of newly suitable land is currently wilderness, equivalent to 10.2% of the total wilderness area. Our results highlight an important and previously unidentified possible consequence of the disproportionate warming known to be occurring in high northern latitudes. Because we find that, globally, 72.0% of currently cultivable land is predicted to experience a net loss in total crop diversity, agricultural expansion is a major emerging threat to wilderness. Without protection, the vital integrity of these valuable areas could be irreversibly lost.

Cropland expansion in Ecuador between 2000 and 2016

We describe changes in the cropland distribution for physiographic and bioregions of continental Ecuador between 2000 and 2016 using Landsat satellite data and government statistics. The cloudy conditions in Ecuador are a major constraint to satellite data analysis. We developed a two-stage cloud filtering algorithm to create cloud-free multi-temporal Landsat composites that were used in a Random Forest model to identify cropland. The overall accuracy of the model was 78% for the Coast region, 86% for the Andes, and 98% for the Amazon region. Cropland density was highest in the coastal lowlands and in the Andes between 2500 and 4400 m. During this period, cropland expansion was most pronounced in the Páramo, Chocó Tropical Rainforests, and Western Montane bioregions. There was no cropland expansion detected in the Eastern Foothill forests bioregion. The satellite data analysis further showed a small contraction of cropland (4%) in the Coast physiographic region, and cropland expansion in the Andes region (15%), especially above 3500m, and in the Amazon region (57%) between 2000 and 2016. The government data showed a similar contraction for the Coast (7%) but, in contrast with the satellite data, they showed a large agricultural contraction in the Andes (39%) and Amazon (50%). While the satellite data may be better at estimating relative change (trends), the government data may provide more accurate absolute numbers in some regions, especially the Amazon because separating pasture and tree crops from forest with satellite data is challenging. These discrepancies illustrate the need for careful evaluation and comparison of data from different sources when analyzing land use change.

Predicted impacts of climate change on wild and commercial berry habitats will have food security, conservation and agricultural implications

Climate change is now a reality and is altering ecosystems, with Canada experiencing 2-4 times the global average rate of warming. This will have a critical impact on berry cultivation and horticulture. Enhancing our understanding of how wild and cultivated berries will perform under changing climates will be essential to mitigating impacts on ecosystems, culture and food security. Our objective was to predict the impact of climate change on habitat suitability of four berry producing Vaccinium species: two species with primarily northern distributions (V. uliginosum, V. vitis-idaea), one species with a primarily southern distribution (V. oxycoccos), and the commercially cultivated V. macrocarpon. We used the maximum entropy (Maxent) model and the CMIP6 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) 126 and 585 projected to 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. Wild species showed a uniform northward progression and expansion of suitable habitat. Our modeling predicts that suitable growing regions for commercial cranberries are also likely to shift with some farms becoming unsuitable for the current varieties and other regions becoming more suitable for cranberry farms. Both V. macrocarpon and V. oxycoccos showed a high dependence on precipitation-associated variables. Vaccinium vitis-idaea and V. uliginosum had a greater number of variables with smaller contributions which may improve their resilience to individual climactic events. Future competition between commercial cranberry farms and wild berries in protected areas could lead to conflicts between agriculture and conservation priorities. New varieties of commercial berries are required to maintain current commercial berry farms.

Himalayan ecosystem services and climate change driven agricultural frontiers: a scoping review

Climate change, rising temperatures, snow melts and more frequent droughts and floods are disproportionately affecting food and water security, habitat health, and agricultural productivity in the Himalayan region. These climatic changes are negatively impacting productivity of staple crops including wheat, maize, and rice at lower altitudes, but may provide opportunities to utilize Climate Change Driven Agricultural Frontiers [CCDAFs] at higher altitudes. Agricultural expansion into CCDAFs paired with behavioural shifts such as replacing traditional crop systems with commercial crops will predominantly affect forests, water resources, and soil health, which are already negatively affected by climate change unless adaptation options are directed to just and sustainable agroecological transitions. By trading regulating, supporting, and cultural services for food and water provisioning services, as are evident in land sparing strategy, the utilization of CCDAFs will have long-term implications for the sustainability of mountain farming systems. Climate change is affecting Himalayan agriculture, food security, and ecosystem services, and scientific literature predominantly focus on one of these topics in isolation, occasionally connecting results to another topic. By classifying literature as predominantly agriculture, food security, or ecosystem service themed, this scoping review identifies sources with multiple dominant themes and explores how the relationships between these topics are represented in literature to provide research based evidence to promote the future expansion of agriculture that is low-carbon, just and sustainable. Gaps in the literature reveal that research is needed on the extent of CCDAFs in the Himalayas and the potential trade-offs on utilizing the frontier areas.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s43621-022-00103-9.

Interactions of Environmental Variables and Water Use Efficiency in the Matopiba Region via Multivariate Analysis

This study aimed to evaluate the interaction of environmental variables and Water Use Efficiency (WUE) via multivariate analysis to understand the importance of each variable in the carbon–water balance in MATOPIBA. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied to reduce spatial dimensionality and to identify patterns by using the following data: (i) LST (MOD11A2) and WUE (ratio between GPP-MOD17A2 and ET-MOD16A2), based on MODIS orbital products; (ii) Rainfall based on CHIRPS precipitation product; (iii) slope, roughness, and elevation from the GMTED and SRTM version 4.1 products; and (iv) geographic data, Latitude, and Longitude. All calculations were performed in R version 3.6.3 and Quantum GIS (QGIS) version 3.4.6. Eight variables were initially used. After applying the PCA, only four were suitable: Elevation, LST, Rainfall, and WUE, with values greater than 0.7. A positive correlation (≥0.78) between the variables (Elevation, LST, and Rainfall) and vegetation was identified. According to the KMO test, a series-considered medium was obtained (0.7 < KMO < 0.8), and it was explained by one PC (PC1). PC1 was explained by four variables (Elevation, LST, Rainfall, and WUE), among which WUE (0.8 < KMO < 0.9) was responsible for detailing 65.77% of the total explained variance. Positive scores were found in the states of Maranhão and Tocantins and negative scores in Piauí and Bahia. The positive scores show areas with greater Rainfall, GPP, and ET availability, while the negative scores show areas with greater water demand and LST. It was concluded that variations in variables such as Rainfall, LST, GPP, and ET can influence the local behavior of the carbon–water cycle of the vegetation, impacting the WUE in MATOPIBA.

Quantifying the impacts of 166 years of land cover change on lowland bird communities

Land cover change for agriculture is thought to be a major threat to global biodiversity. However, its ecological impact has rarely been quantified in the Northern Hemisphere, as broad-scale conversion to farmland mainly occurred until the 1400s-1700s in the region, limiting the availability of sufficient data. The Ishikari Lowland in Hokkaido, Japan, offers an excellent opportunity to address this issue, as hunter-gatherer lifestyles dominated this region until the mid-nineteenth century and land cover maps are available for the period of land cover changes (i.e. 1850-2016). Using these maps and a hierarchical community model of relationships between breeding bird abundance and land cover types, we estimated that broad-scale land cover change over a 166-year period was associated with more than 70% decline in both potential species richness and abundance of avian communities. We estimated that the abundance of wetland and forest species declined by greater than 88%, whereas that of bare-ground/farmland species increased by more than 50%. Our results suggest that broad-scale land cover change for agriculture has led to drastic reductions in wetland and forest species and promoted changes in community composition in large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. This study provides potential baseline information that could inform future conservation policies.

The relationship between income and assets in farms and context of sustainable development

The objective of this paper is to identify the relationship between farm income and assets within the European Union (EU) in the context of economic and environmental sustainable development. The scientific context is connected to economic theory (the recognition of the nature of such a relationship, as well as the determination of whether sustainable development acts as a stimulant or destimulant under these conditions). The Farm Accounting Data Network system was employed in the article. The econometric models were estimated by panel data based on the reported results of the farms operations in EU member states for the period of 2004–2018. Accordingly, the relationship between income and assets is positive and statistically significant, but not very clear in the group of surveyed farms. Moreover, economic sustainability was found to positively influences the relationship between income and assets. In contrast, the relationship between incomes and assets was weakened. The situation is brought about by the intrinsic growth in the value of the land, as well as by the growing importance of non-productive assets. Thus, farmers in EU countries are becoming wealthier in terms of the value of their assets but, this is not reflected directly in their income. The reason is the growing importance of environmental and social functions in the agriculture the European Union. Greater skills in asset management at farm level are, therefore, required to mitigate the situation.

Agricultural breadbaskets shift poleward given adaptive farmer behavior under climate change

Modern food production is spatially concentrated in global "breadbaskets." A major unresolved question is whether these peak production regions will shift poleward as the climate warms, allowing some recovery of potential climate-related losses. While agricultural impacts studies to date have focused on currently cultivated land, the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment allows us to assess changes in both yields and the location of peak productivity regions under warming. We examine crop responses under projected end of century warming using seven process-based models simulating five major crops (maize, rice, soybeans, and spring and winter wheat) with a variety of adaptation strategies. We find that in no-adaptation cases, when planting date and cultivar choices are held fixed, regions of peak production remain stationary and yield losses can be severe, since growing seasons contract strongly with warming. When adaptations in management practices are allowed (cultivars that retain growing season length under warming and modified planting dates), peak productivity zones shift poleward and yield losses are largely recovered. While most growing-zone shifts are ultimately limited by geography, breadbaskets studied here move poleward over 600 km on average by end of the century under RCP 8.5. These results suggest that agricultural impacts assessments can be strongly biased if restricted in spatial area or in the scope of adaptive behavior considered. Accurate evaluation of food security under climate change requires global modeling and careful treatment of adaptation strategies.

Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100

Anthropogenic activity is changing Earth's climate and ecosystems in ways that are potentially dangerous and disruptive to humans. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere continue to rise, ensuring that these changes will be felt for centuries beyond 2100, the current benchmark for projection. Estimating the effects of past, current, and potential future emissions to only 2100 is therefore short-sighted. Critical problems for food production and climate-forced human migration are projected to arise well before 2100, raising questions regarding the habitability of some regions of the Earth after the turn of the century. To highlight the need for more distant horizon scanning, we model climate change to 2500 under a suite of emission scenarios and quantify associated projections of crop viability and heat stress. Together, our projections show global climate impacts increase significantly after 2100 without rapid mitigation. As a result, we argue that projections of climate and its effects on human well-being and associated governance and policy must be framed beyond 2100.

Northern Food Systems in Transition: The Role of the Emerging Agri-Food Industry in the Northwest Territories (Canada) Food System

This paper reports the findings of an ethnographic study that involved working with local organizations, food advocates, and communities to develop strategies for expanding the nascent Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada agri-food industry. The NWT represents a unique case study in that the fledging agri-food industry has been recognized for its promise in contributing to the core goals of the transitioning NWT food system. The study is guided by two research questions: (1) How is the promise of the emerging NWT agri-food industry framed within the context of the broader food system? (2) Given this framing of the NWT agri-food industry, how can it contribute to the sustainability of the NWT food system and to the goals of food security, poverty reduction, nutrition, and economic development? Grounded in a food systems approach, we used a correlative, evolutionary SWOT analysis to profile the nascent NWT agri-food industry within the context of the existing NWT food system. Through further thematic analysis, we identify and describe two dominant narratives (agri-food industry business case narrative and agri-food industry implications narrative) and key themes within the narratives based on an adapted food systems framework. The agri-food business case narrative highlights discourse articulating the business or commercial viability for a local agri-food value chain to function, evolve, and expand. The agri-food industry implications narrative envisions the ways in which the emerging NWT agri-food industry may interact within the existing NWT food system, highlighting potential environmental, social, cultural, and political implications of an expanding commercial-based agri-food value chain. Within the two narratives, certain subcomponents of the NWT agri-food system appear to be more prevalent, including climate, soil, and ecosystems, policy/regulations/governance, socio-cultural norms, knowledge, inputs, finance, production, and consumption. We make policy and practice recommendations for co-designing an agri-food industry that serves the multiple goals of the NWT food system. As an exploratory, descriptive-structural analysis the study provides a critical empirical basis for future in-depth, fully integrated synthesis of the complex social, cultural, economic, political, and ecological dynamics shaping Northern food systems in transition.

Review: Perspective on high-performing dairy cows and herds

Milk and dairy products provide highly sustainable concentrations of essential amino acids and other required nutrients for humans; however, amount of milk currently produced per dairy cow globally is inadequate to meet future needs. Higher performing dairy cows and herds produce more milk with less environmental impact per kg than lower performing cows and herds. In 2018, 15.4% of the world's dairy cows produced 45.4% of the world's dairy cow milk, reflecting the global contribution of high-performing cows and herds. In high-performing herds, genomic evaluations are utilized for multiple trait selection, welfare is monitored by remote sensing, rations are formulated at micronutrient levels, health care is focused on prevention and reproduction is managed with precision. Higher performing herds require more inputs and generate more waste products per cow, thus innovations in environmental management on such farms are essential for lowering environmental impacts. Our focus is to provide perspectives on technologies and practices that contribute most to sustainable production of milk from high-performing dairy cows and herds.

Reduction in global habitat loss from fossil-fuel-dependent increases in cropland productivity

Terrestrial biodiversity loss and climate change, driven mainly by loss of habitat to agriculture and fossil fuel (FF) use, respectively, are considered among the world's greatest environmental threats. However, FF-dependent technologies are currently essential for manufacturing synthetic nitrogen fertilizers (SNFs) and synthetic pesticides (SPs) critical to increasing agricultural productivity, which reduces habitat loss. Fossil fuel use increases CO₂ levels, further enhancing agricultural productivity. Based on estimates of global increases in yields from SNFs, SPs, and atmospheric CO₂ fertilization, I estimated that FF-dependent technologies are responsible for at least 62.5% of current global food production (GFP) from cropland. Thus, if FF use is eschewed in the future, maintaining current GFP means croplands would have to increase from 12.2% of global land area (GLA) excluding Antarctica to 32.7%. The additional 20.4% of GLA needed exceeds habitat lost currently to cropland (12.2% of GLA) and cumulative conservation areas globally (14.6% of GLA). Thus, although eliminating FF use could reduce climate change, its unintended consequences may be to significantly exacerbate biodiversity loss and indirectly increase food costs, reducing food security which, moreover, disproportionately affects the poor. Although it may be possible to replace SNFs and SPs with FF-free technologies, such substitutes have not yet been demonstrated to be sufficiently economical or efficient. In the interim, meeting global food demand and keeping food prices affordable would increase habitat conversion and food prices. These trade-offs should be considered in analyses of climate change policies.

Implications of Zoonoses From Hunting and Use of Wildlife in North American Arctic and Boreal Biomes: Pandemic Potential, Monitoring, and Mitigation

The COVID-19 pandemic has re-focused attention on mechanisms that lead to zoonotic disease spillover and spread. Commercial wildlife trade, and associated markets, are recognized mechanisms for zoonotic disease emergence, resulting in a growing global conversation around reducing human disease risks from spillover associated with hunting, trade, and consumption of wild animals. These discussions are especially relevant to people who rely on harvesting wildlife to meet nutritional, and cultural needs, including those in Arctic and boreal regions. Global policies around wildlife use and trade can impact food sovereignty and security, especially of Indigenous Peoples. We reviewed known zoonotic pathogens and current risks of transmission from wildlife (including fish) to humans in North American Arctic and boreal biomes, and evaluated the epidemic and pandemic potential of these zoonoses. We discuss future concerns, and consider monitoring and mitigation measures in these changing socio-ecological systems. While multiple zoonotic pathogens circulate in these systems, risks to humans are mostly limited to individual illness or local community outbreaks. These regions are relatively remote, subject to very cold temperatures, have relatively low wildlife, domestic animal, and pathogen diversity, and in many cases low density, including of humans. Hence, favorable conditions for emergence of novel diseases or major amplification of a spillover event are currently not present. The greatest risk to northern communities from pathogens of pandemic potential is via introduction with humans visiting from other areas. However, Arctic and boreal ecosystems are undergoing rapid changes through climate warming, habitat encroachment, and development; all of which can change host and pathogen relationships, thereby affecting the probability of the emergence of new (and re-emergence of old) zoonoses. Indigenous leadership and engagement in disease monitoring, prevention and response, is vital from the outset, and would increase the success of such efforts, as well as ensure the protection of Indigenous rights as outlined in the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. Partnering with northern communities and including Indigenous Knowledge Systems would improve the timeliness, and likelihood, of detecting emerging zoonotic risks, and contextualize risk assessments to the unique human-wildlife relationships present in northern biomes.

Grassroots and Global Governance: Can Global–Local Linkages Foster Food System Resilience for Small Northern Canadian Communities?

Communities in Canada’s Northwest Territories (NWT) are at the forefront of the global climate emergency. Yet, they are not passive victims; local-level programs are being implemented across the region to maintain livelihoods and promote adaptation. At the same time, there is a recent call within global governance literature to pay attention to how global policy is implemented and affecting people on the ground. Thinking about these two processes, we ask the question: (how) can global governance assist northern Indigenous communities in Canada in reaching their goals of adapting their food systems to climate change? To answer this question, we argue for a “community needs” approach when engaging in global governance literature and practice, which puts community priorities and decision-making first. As part of a collaborative research partnership, we highlight the experiences of Ka’a’gee Tu First Nation, located in Kakisa, NWT, Canada. We include their successes of engaging in global network building and the systemic roadblock of lack of formal land tenure. Moreover, we analyze potential opportunities for this community to engage with global governance instruments and continue connecting to global networks that further their goals related to climate change adaptation and food sovereignty.

Virtual barriers: unpacking the sustainability implications of online food spaces and the Yellowknife Farmers Market's response to COVID-19

Background

Through their support of local agriculture, relationships, and healthy diets, farmers markets can contribute to a sustainable food system. Markets like the Yellowknife Farmers Market (YKFM) are social spaces that support local food, yet the COVID-19 pandemic has forced changes to their current model. We explore the potential of online marketplaces to contribute to a resilient, sustainable food system through a case study of the YKFM.

Methods

In 2019, a collaborative mixed-method evaluation was initiated by the YKFM and university partners in the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada. The evaluation included an in-person Rapid Market Assessment dot survey and questionnaire of market patrons from two YKFM dates prior to the pandemic. Due to COVID-19, a vendor survey and interviews were deferred. Data collected from the two patron surveys, alongside researcher observations, available literature, public announcements, and informal email and phone discussions, inform the discussion.

Results

For the patron surveys, 59 dot survey and 31 questionnaire participants were recruited. The top motivators for attendance were eating dinner, atmosphere, and supporting local businesses, and most patrons attended as couples and spent over half of their time talking to others. The YKFM did not move online; instead, they proposed and implemented a “Shop, don’t stop” market. Informal conversations suggested the small scale of the market and technology challenges were perceived barriers to moving online. The physically-distanced market was well-attended and featured in local media.

Conclusions

NWT food strategies rely on farmers markets to nurture a local food system. Data suggest a potential incongruence between an online model and important market characteristics such as the event-like atmosphere. Available literature suggests online markets can support local food by facilitating purchasing and knowledge-sharing, yet they do not replicate the open-air or social experience. The decision not to move online for the YKFM reflects market patron characteristics and current food context in Yellowknife and the NWT. While online adaptation does not fit into the YKFM plan today, online markets may prove useful as a complementary strategy for future emerging stressors to enhance the resiliency of local systems.

Polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs) in the Canadian environment: Links to global change

In this review, global change processes have been linked to polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs) in Canada and a first national budget of sources and sinks has been derived. Sources are dominated by wildfire emissions that affect western and northern regions of Canada disproportionately due to the location of Pacific and boreal forests and the direction of prevailing winds. Wildfire emissions are projected to increase under climate warming along with releases from the thawing of glaciers and permafrost. Residential wood combustion, domestic transportation and industry contribute the bulk of anthropogenic emissions, though they are substantially smaller than wildfire emissions and are not expected to change considerably in coming years. Other sources such as accidental spills, deforestation, and re-emission of previous industrial deposition are expected to contribute anthropogenic and biogenic PACs to nearby ecosystems. PAC sinks are less well-understood. Atmospheric deposition is similar in magnitude to anthropogenic sources. Considerable knowledge gaps preclude the estimation of environmental transformations and transboundary flows, and assessing the importance of climate change relative to shifts in population distribution and energy production is not yet possible. The outlook for PACs in the Arctic is uncertain due to conflicting assessments of competing factors and limited measurements, some of which provide a baseline but have not been followed up in recent years. Climate change has led to an increase in primary productivity in the Arctic Ocean, but PAC-related impacts on marine biota appear to be modest. The net effect of changes in ecological exposure from changing emissions and environmental conditions throughout Canada remains to be seen. Evidence suggests that the PAC budget at the national scale does not represent impacts at the local or regional level. The ability to assess future trends depends on improvements to Canada's environmental measurement strategy and biogeochemical modelling capability.

Opportunities and trade-offs for expanding agriculture in Canada’s North: an ecosystem service perspective

Climate change will create warmer temperatures, greater precipitation, and longer growing seasons in northern latitudes making agriculture increasingly possible in boreal regions. To assess the potential of any such expansion, this paper provides a first-order approximation of how much land could become suitable for four staple crops (corn, potato, soy, and wheat) in Canada by 2080. In addition, we estimate how the environmental trade-offs of northern agricultural expansion will impact critical ecosystem services. Primarily, we evaluate how the regulatory ecosystem services of carbon storage and sequestration and the habitat services supporting biodiversity would be traded for the provisioning services of food production. Here we show that under climate change projected by Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, ∼1.85 million km2 of land may become suitable for farming in Canada’s North, which, if utilized, would lead to the release of ∼15 gigatonnes of carbon if all forests and wetlands are cleared and plowed. These land-use changes would also have profound implications for Indigenous sovereignty and the governance of protected and conserved areas in Canada. These results highlight that research is urgently needed so that stakeholders can become aware of the scope of potential economic opportunities, cultural issues, and environmental trade-offs required for agricultural sustainability in Canada.

Analysis of the Effect of Climate Warming on Paludification Processes: Will Soil Conditions Limit the Adaptation of Northern Boreal Forests to Climate Change? A Synthesis

Northern boreal forests are characterized by accumulation of accumulation of peat (e.g., known as paludification). The functioning of northern boreal forest species and their capacity to adapt to environmental changes appear to depend on soil conditions. Climate warming is expected to have particularly pronounced effects on paludified boreal ecosystems and can alter current forest species composition and adaptation by changing soil conditions such as moisture, temperature regimes, and soil respiration. In this paper, we review and synthesize results from various reported studies (i.e., 88 research articles cited hereafter) to assess the effects of climatic warming on soil conditions of paludified forests in North America. Predictions that global warming may increase the decomposition rate must be considered in combination with its impact on soil moisture, which appears to be a limiting factor. Local adaptation or acclimation to current climatic conditions is occurring in boreal forests, which is likely to be important for continued ecosystem stability in the context of climate change. The most commonly cited response of boreal forest species to global warming is a northward migration that tracks the climate and soil conditions (e.g., temperature and moisture) to which they are adapted. Yet, some constraints may influence this kind of adaptation, such as water availability, changes in fire regimes, decomposer adaptations, and the dynamic of peat accumulation. In this paper, as a study case, we examined an example of potential effects of climatic warming on future paludification changes in the eastern lowland region of Canada through three different combined hypothetical scenarios based on temperature and precipitation (e.g., unchanged, increase, or decrease). An increase scenario in precipitation will likely favor peat accumulation in boreal forest stands prone to paludification and facilitate forested peatland expansion into upland forest, while decreased or unchanged precipitation combined with an increase in temperature will probably favor succession of forested peatlands to upland boreal forests. Each of the three scenarios were discussed in this study, and consequent silvicultural treatment options were suggested for each scenario to cope with anticipated soil and species changes in the boreal forests. We concluded that, despite the fact boreal soils will not constrain adaptation of boreal forests, some consequences of climatic warming may reduce the ability of certain species to respond to natural disturbances such as pest and disease outbreaks, and extreme weather events.