Multimorbidity, polypharmacy, and COVID-19 infection within the UK Biobank cohort

People with long-term conditions are more adherent to protective behaviours against infectious disease

Objectives

To investigate the relationship between long-term condition (LTC) status and adherence to protective behaviours against infectious disease (face covering, physical distancing, hand hygiene).

Study design

Representative cross-sectional observational survey in summer 2020 in Scotland.

Methods

Independent variable is LTC status (LTC, disability, no LTC); dependent variable is adherence to protective behaviours (face covering, hand hygiene, social distancing); moderator variables are age, gender and area deprivation; mediator variables are perceived threat and psychological distress. P values of p < 0.05 were taken as statistically significant.

Results

3972 participants of whom 2696 (67.9 %) indicated not having a LTC. People with no LTC had lowest adherence to protective behaviours, perceived threat and psychological distress. Age did not moderate the relationship between LTC status and adherence; females were more adherent than males and this gender difference was greater in people with disability compared to people with no LTC; adherence was greater for people with a LTC in the more deprived areas compared to the least deprived areas whereas adherence in those with no LTC was not related to area deprivation; threat appraisal partially mediated the relationship between having a LTC or disability and adherence; psychological distress did not mediate the relationship between LTC status and adherence.

Conclusions

This study addresses a gap in evidence about protective behaviours of people with LTCs. Perceptions of threat may be useful intervention targets against winter flu and during future pandemics in order to protect people with LTCs who are one of the most vulnerable groups of the population.

Creating a Modified Version of the Cambridge Multimorbidity Score to Predict Mortality in People Older Than 16 Years: Model Development and Validation

BACKGROUND

No single multimorbidity measure is validated for use in NHS (National Health Service) England's General Practice Extraction Service Data for Pandemic Planning and Research (GDPPR), the nationwide primary care data set created for COVID-19 pandemic research. The Cambridge Multimorbidity Score (CMMS) is a validated tool for predicting mortality risk, with 37 conditions defined by Read Codes. The GDPPR uses the more internationally used Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine clinical terms (SNOMED CT). We previously developed a modified version of the CMMS using SNOMED CT, but the number of terms for the GDPPR data set is limited making it impossible to use this version.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to develop and validate a modified version of CMMS using the clinical terms available for the GDPPR.

METHODS

We used pseudonymized data from the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC), which has an extensive SNOMED CT list. From the 37 conditions in the original CMMS model, we selected conditions either with (1) high prevalence ratio (≥85%), calculated as the prevalence in the RSC data set but using the GDPPR set of SNOMED CT codes, divided by the prevalence included in the RSC SNOMED CT codes or (2) conditions with lower prevalence ratios but with high predictive value. The resulting set of conditions was included in Cox proportional hazard models to determine the 1-year mortality risk in a development data set (n=500,000) and construct a new CMMS model, following the methods for the original CMMS study, with variable reduction and parsimony, achieved by backward elimination and the Akaike information stopping criterion. Model validation involved obtaining 1-year mortality estimates for a synchronous data set (n=250,000) and 1-year and 5-year mortality estimates for an asynchronous data set (n=250,000). We compared the performance with that of the original CMMS and the modified CMMS that we previously developed using RSC data.

RESULTS

The initial model contained 22 conditions and our final model included 17 conditions. The conditions overlapped with those of the modified CMMS using the more extensive SNOMED CT list. For 1-year mortality, discrimination was high in both the derivation and validation data sets (Harrell C=0.92) and 5-year mortality was slightly lower (Harrell C=0.90). Calibration was reasonable following an adjustment for overfitting. The performance was similar to that of both the original and previous modified CMMS models.

CONCLUSIONS

The new modified version of the CMMS can be used on the GDPPR, a nationwide primary care data set of 54 million people, to enable adjustment for multimorbidity in predicting mortality in people in real-world vaccine effectiveness, pandemic planning, and other research studies. It requires 17 variables to produce a comparable performance with our previous modification of CMMS to enable it to be used in routine data using SNOMED CT.

PheMIME: an interactive web app and knowledge base for phenome-wide, multi-institutional multimorbidity analysis

OBJECTIVES

To address the need for interactive visualization tools and databases in characterizing multimorbidity patterns across different populations, we developed the Phenome-wide Multi-Institutional Multimorbidity Explorer (PheMIME). This tool leverages three large-scale EHR systems to facilitate efficient analysis and visualization of disease multimorbidity, aiming to reveal both robust and novel disease associations that are consistent across different systems and to provide insight for enhancing personalized healthcare strategies.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

PheMIME integrates summary statistics from phenome-wide analyses of disease multimorbidities, utilizing data from Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Mass General Brigham, and the UK Biobank. It offers interactive and multifaceted visualizations for exploring multimorbidity. Incorporating an enhanced version of associationSubgraphs, PheMIME also enables dynamic analysis and inference of disease clusters, promoting the discovery of complex multimorbidity patterns. A case study on schizophrenia demonstrates its capability for generating interactive visualizations of multimorbidity networks within and across multiple systems. Additionally, PheMIME supports diverse multimorbidity-based discoveries, detailed further in online case studies.

RESULTS

The PheMIME is accessible at https://prod.tbilab.org/PheMIME/. A comprehensive tutorial and multiple case studies for demonstration are available at https://prod.tbilab.org/PheMIME_supplementary_materials/. The source code can be downloaded from https://github.com/tbilab/PheMIME.

DISCUSSION

PheMIME represents a significant advancement in medical informatics, offering an efficient solution for accessing, analyzing, and interpreting the complex and noisy real-world patient data in electronic health records.

CONCLUSION

PheMIME provides an extensive multimorbidity knowledge base that consolidates data from three EHR systems, and it is a novel interactive tool designed to analyze and visualize multimorbidities across multiple EHR datasets. It stands out as the first of its kind to offer extensive multimorbidity knowledge integration with substantial support for efficient online analysis and interactive visualization.

Cardiovascular Drug Interactions with Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir for COVID-19: Considerations for Daily Practice

Cardiovascular disease is associated with progression to severe COVID-19 and patients with the condition are among those in whom early antiviral therapy should be warranted. The combination of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Paxlovid®) has been approved for clinical use by the Food and Drug Administration and European Medicines Agency. Because patients with cardiovascular disease are often on polypharmacy, physicians need to be aware of potential drug-drug interactions (DDIs) when treating COVID-19 with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir. Guidance is given for avoiding DDIs, emphasising that preventing and managing potential DDIs with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir requires thorough assessment and knowledge. The present review summarises the clinical pharmacology of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir and provides details on potential DDIs with a focus on daily practice in patients with cardiovascular disease. Particular attention is needed for drugs that are predominantly metabolised by cytochrome P450 3A4, are substrates of P-glycoprotein and have a narrow therapeutic index. Proper management of potential DDIs must balance the benefit of nirmatrelvir/ ritonavir to prevent severe disease with the risk of serious adverse events.

COVID-19 pandemic impact on hypertension management in North East London: an observational cohort study using electronic health records

OBJECTIVE

There are established inequities in the monitoring and management of hypertension in England. The COVID-19 pandemic had a major impact on primary care management of long-term conditions such as hypertension. This study investigated the possible disproportionate impact of the pandemic across patient groups.

DESIGN

Open cohort of people with diagnosed hypertension.

SETTINGS

North East London primary care practices from January 2019 to October 2022.

PARTICIPANTS

All 224 329 adults with hypertension registered in 193 primary care practices.

OUTCOMES

Monitoring and management of hypertension were assessed using two indicators: (i) blood pressure recorded within 1 year of the index date and (ii) blood pressure control to national clinical practice guidelines.

RESULTS

The proportion of patients with a contemporaneous blood pressure recording fell from a 91% pre-pandemic peak to 62% at the end of the pandemic lockdown and improved to 77% by the end of the study. This was paralleled by the proportion of individuals with controlled hypertension which fell from a 73% pre-pandemic peak to 50% at the end of the pandemic lockdown and improved to 60% by the end of the study. However, when excluding patients without a recent blood pressure recording, the proportions of patients with controlled hypertension increased to 81%, 80% and 78% respectively.Throughout the study, in comparison to the White ethnic group, the Black ethnic group was less likely to achieve adequate blood pressure control (ORs 0.81 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.85, p<0.001) to 0.87 (95% CI 0.84 to 0.91, p<0.001)). Conversely, the Asian ethnic group was more likely to have controlled blood pressure (ORs 1.09 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.14, p<0.001) to 1.28 (95% CI 1.23 to 1.32, p<0.001)). Men, younger individuals, more affluent individuals, individuals with unknown or unrecorded ethnicity or those untreated were also less likely to have blood pressure control to target throughout the study.

CONCLUSION

The COVID-19 pandemic had a greater impact on blood pressure recording than on blood pressure control. Inequities in blood pressure control persisted during the pandemic and remain outstanding.

Relationship between 2nd-generation angiotensin receptor blockers and the risk of hypotension in COVID-19 patients admitted to hospital

It has not yet been established whether angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARB), statins, and multiple drugs affect the severity of COVID-19. Therefore, we herein performed an observational study on the effects of 1st- and 2nd-generation ARB, statins, and multiple drugs, on COVID-19 in patients admitted to 15 Japanese medical facilities. The results obtained showed that ARB, statins, and multiple drugs were not associated with the primary outcome (odds ratio: 1.040, 95% confidence interval: 0.688-0.571; 0.696, 0.439-1.103; 1.056, 0.941-1.185, respectively), each component of the primary outcome (in-hospital death, ventilator support, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support, and admission to the intensive care unit), or the secondary outcomes (oxygen administration, disturbed consciousness, and hypotension, defined as systolic blood pressure ≤90 mmHg). ARB were divided into 1st- and 2nd-generations based on their approval for use (before 2000 and after 2001), with the former consisting of losartan, candesartan, and valsartan, and the latter of telmisartan, olmesartan, irbesartan, and azilsartan. The difference of ARB generation was not associated with the primary outcome (odds ratio with 2nd-generation ARB relative to 1st-generation ARB: 1.257, 95% confidence interval: 0.613-2.574). The odd ratio for a hypotension as one of the secondary outcomes with 2nd-generation ARB was 1.754 (95% confidence interval: 1.745-1.763) relative to 1st-generation ARB. These results suggest that patients taking 2nd-generation ARB may be at a higher risk of hypotension than those taking 1st-generation ARB and also that careful observations are needed. Further studies are continuously needed to support decisions to adjust medications for co-morbidities.

Prevalence of multimorbidity and polypharmacy among adults and older adults: a systematic review

Multimorbidity (multiple conditions) and polypharmacy (multiple medications) are increasingly common, yet there is a need to better understand the prevalence of co-occurrence. In this systematic review, we examined the prevalence of multimorbidity and polypharmacy among adults (≥18 years) and older adults (≥65 years) in clinical and community settings. Six electronic databases were searched, and 87 studies were retained after two levels of screening. Most studies focused on adults 65 years and older and were done in population-based community settings. Although the operational definitions of multimorbidity and polypharmacy varied across studies, consistent cut-points (two or more conditions and five or more medications) were used across most studies. In older adult samples, the prevalence of multimorbidity ranged from 4·8% to 93·1%, while the prevalence of polypharmacy ranged from 2·6% to 86·6%. High heterogeneity between studies indicates the need for more consistent reporting of specific lists of conditions and medications used in operational definitions.

Socioeconomic deprivation and illness trajectory in the Scottish population after COVID-19 hospitalization

BACKGROUND

The associations between deprivation and illness trajectory after hospitalisation for coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) are uncertain.

METHODS

A prospective, multicentre cohort study was conducted on post-COVID-19 patients, enrolled either in-hospital or shortly post-discharge. Two evaluations were carried out: an initial assessment and a follow-up at 28-60 days post-discharge. The study encompassed research blood tests, patient-reported outcome measures, and multisystem imaging (including chest computed tomography (CT) with pulmonary and coronary angiography, cardiovascular and renal magnetic resonance imaging). Primary and secondary outcomes were analysed in relation to socioeconomic status, using the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD). The EQ-5D-5L, Brief Illness Perception Questionnaire (BIPQ), Patient Health Questionnaire-4 (PHQ-4) for Anxiety and Depression, and the Duke Activity Status Index (DASI) were used to assess health status.

RESULTS

Of the 252 enrolled patients (mean age 55.0 ± 12.0 years; 40% female; 23% with diabetes), deprivation status was linked with increased BMI and diabetes prevalence. 186 (74%) returned for the follow-up. Within this group, findings indicated associations between deprivation and lung abnormalities (p = 0.0085), coronary artery disease (p = 0.0128), and renal inflammation (p = 0.0421). Furthermore, patients with higher deprivation exhibited worse scores in health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-5L, p = 0.0084), illness perception (BIPQ, p = 0.0004), anxiety and depression levels (PHQ-4, p = 0.0038), and diminished physical activity (DASI, p = 0.002). At the 3-month mark, those with greater deprivation showed a higher frequency of referrals to secondary care due to ongoing COVID-19 symptoms (p = 0.0438). However, clinical outcomes were not influenced by deprivation.

CONCLUSIONS

In a post-hospital COVID-19 population, socioeconomic deprivation was associated with impaired health status and secondary care episodes. Deprivation influences illness trajectory after COVID-19.

Multimorbidity and frailty are associated with poorer SARS-CoV-2-related outcomes: systematic review of population-based studies

BACKGROUND

Estimating the risks and impacts of COVID-19 for different health groups at the population level is essential for orienting public health measures. Adopting a population-based approach, we conducted a systematic review to explore: (1) the etiological role of multimorbidity and frailty in developing SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-related short-term outcomes; and (2) the prognostic role of multimorbidity and frailty in developing short- and long-term outcomes. This review presents the state of the evidence in the early years of the pandemic. It was conducted within the European Union Horizon 2020 program (No: 101018317); Prospero registration: CRD42021249444.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, World Health Organisation COVID-19 Global literature on coronavirus disease, and PsycINFO were searched between January 2020 and 7 April 2021 for multimorbidity and 1 February 2022 for frailty. Quantitative peer-reviewed studies published in English with population-representative samples and validated multimorbidity and frailty tools were considered.

RESULTS

Overall, 9,701 records were screened by title/abstract and 267 with full text. Finally, 14 studies were retained for multimorbidity (etiological role, n = 2; prognostic, n = 13) and 5 for frailty (etiological role, n = 2; prognostic, n = 4). Only short-term outcomes, mainly mortality, were identified. An elevated likelihood of poorer outcomes was associated with an increasing number of diseases, a higher Charlson Comorbidity Index, different disease combinations, and an increasing frailty level.

DISCUSSION

Future studies, which include the effects of recent virus variants, repeated exposure and vaccination, will be useful for comparing the possible evolution of the associations observed in the earlier waves.

Ethnic differences in multimorbidity after accounting for social-economic factors, findings from The Health Survey for England

BACKGROUND

Social-economic factors and health behaviours may be driving variation in ethnic health inequalities in multimorbidity including among distinct ethnic groups.

METHODS

Using the cross-sectional nationally representative Health Surveys for England 2011-18 (N = 54 438, aged 16+), we performed multivariable logistic regression on the odds of having general multimorbidity (≥2 longstanding conditions) by ethnicity [British White (reference group), White Irish, Other White, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Chinese, African, Caribbean, White mixed, Other Mixed], adjusting for age, sex, education, area deprivation, obesity, smoking status and survey year. This was repeated for cardiovascular multimorbidity (N = 37 148, aged 40+: having ≥2 of the following: self-reported diabetes, hypertension, heart attack or stroke) and multiple cardiometabolic risk biomarkers (HbA1c ≥6.5%, raised blood pressure, total cholesterol ≥5mmol/L).

RESULTS

Twenty percent of adults had general multimorbidity. In fully adjusted models, compared with the White British majority, Other White [odds ratio (OR) = 0.63; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.53-0.74], Chinese (OR = 0.58, 95% CI 0.36-0.93) and African adults (OR = 0.54, 95% CI 0.42-0.69), had lower odds of general multimorbidity. Among adults aged 40+, Pakistani (OR = 1.27, 95% CI 0.97-1.66; P = 0.080) and Bangladeshi (OR = 1.75, 95% CI 1.16-2.65) had increased odds, and African adults had decreased odds (OR = 0.63, 95% CI 0.47-0.83) of general multimorbidity. Risk of cardiovascular multimorbidity was higher among Indian (OR = 3.31, 95% CI 2.56-4.28), Pakistani (OR = 3.48, 95% CI 2.52-4.80), Bangladeshi (OR = 3.67, 95% CI 1.98-6.78), African (OR = 1.61, 95% CI 1.05-2.47), Caribbean (OR = 2.18, 95% CI 1.59-2.99) and White mixed (OR = 1.98, 95% CI 1.14-3.44) adults. Indian adults were also at risk of having multiple cardiometabolic risk biomarkers.

CONCLUSION

Ethnic inequalities in multimorbidity are independent of social-economic factors. Ethnic minority groups are particularly at risk of cardiovascular multimorbidity, which may be exacerbated by poorer management of cardiometabolic risk requiring further investigation.

An early warning precision public health approach for assessing COVID-19 vulnerability in the UK: the Moore-Hill Vulnerability Index (MHVI)

BACKGROUND

Most COVID-19 vulnerability indices rely on measures that are biased by rates of exposure or are retrospective like mortality rates that offer little opportunity for intervention. The Moore-Hill Vulnerability Index (MHVI) is a precision public health early warning alternative to traditional infection fatality rates that presents avenues for mortality prevention.

METHODS

We produced an infection-severity vulnerability index by calculating the proportion of all recorded positive cases that were severe and attended by ambulances at small area scale for the East Midlands of the UK between May 2020 and April 2022. We produced maps identifying regions with high and low vulnerability, investigated the accuracy of the index over shorter and longer time periods, and explored the utility of the MHVI compared to other common proxy measures and indices. Analysis included exploring the correlation between our novel index and the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD).

RESULTS

The MHVI captures geospatial dynamics that single metrics alone often overlook, including the compound health challenges associated with disadvantaged and declining coastal towns inhabited by communities with post-industrial health legacies. A moderate negative correlation between MHVI and IMD reflects spatial analysis which suggests that high vulnerability occurs in affluent rural as well as deprived coastal and urban communities. Further, the MHVI estimates of severity rates are comparable to infection fatality rates for COVID-19.

CONCLUSIONS

The MHVI identifies regions with known high rates of poor health outcomes prior to the pandemic that case rates or mortality rates alone fail to identify. Pre-hospital early warning measures could be utilised to prevent mortality during a novel pandemic.

High unrecognized SARS-CoV-2 exposure of newly admitted and hospitalized psychiatric patients

BACKGROUND

Patients with pre-existing mental disorders are at higher risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection and adverse outcomes, and severe mental illness, including mood and psychosis spectrum disorders, is associated with increased mortality risk. Despite their increased risk profile, patients with severe mental illness have been understudied during the pandemic, with limited estimates of exposure in inpatient settings.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to describe the SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and antibody titers, and pro-inflammatory cytokine concentrations of newly admitted or hospitalized psychiatric inpatients without known history of COVID-19 infection, using robust quantitative multi-antigen assessments, and compare patients' exposure to that of hospital staff.

METHODS

This multi-centric, cross-sectional study compared SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and titers of 285 patients (University Psychiatric Centre Duffel [UPCD] N = 194; Assistance-Publique-Hopitaux de Paris [AP-HP] N = 91), and 192 hospital caregivers (UPCD N = 130; AP-HP N = 62) at two large psychiatric care facilities between January 1st and the May 30th 2021. Serum levels of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies against Spike proteins (full length), spike subunit 1 (S1), spike subunit 2 (S2), spike subunit 1 receptor binding domain (S1-RBD) and Nucleocapsid proteins were quantitatively determined using an advanced capillary Western Blot technique. To assess the robustness of the between-group seroprevalence differences, we performed sensitivity analyses with stringent cut-offs for seropositivity. We also assessed peripheral concentrations of IL-6, IL-8 and TNF-a using ELLA assays. Secondary analyses included comparisons of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and titers between patient diagnostic subgroups, and between newly admitted (hospitalization ≤ 7 days) and hospitalized patients (hospitalization > 7 days) and correlations between serological and cytokines.

RESULTS

Patients had a significantly higher SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence (67.85 % [95% CI 62.20-73.02]) than hospital caregivers (27.08% [95% CI 21.29-33.77]), and had significantly higher global SARS-CoV-2 titers (F = 29.40, df = 2, p < 0.0001). Moreover, patients had a 2.51-fold (95% CI 1.95-3.20) higher SARS-CoV-2 exposure risk compared to hospital caregivers (Fisher's exact test, P < 0.0001). No difference was found in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and titers between patient subgroups. Patients could be differentiated most accurately from hospital caregivers by their higher Spike protein titers (OR 136.54 [95% CI 43.08-481.98], P < 0.0001), lower S1 (OR 0.06 [95% CI 0.02-0.15], P < 0.0001) titers and higher IL-6 (OR 3.41 [95% CI 1.73-7.24], P < 0.0001) and TNF-α (OR 34.29 [95% CI 5.00-258.87], P < 0.0001) and lower titers of IL-8 (OR 0.13 [95% CI 0.05-0.30], P < 0.0001). Seropositive patients had significantly higher SARS-COV-2 antibody titers compared to seropositive hospital caregivers (F = 19.53, df = 2, P < 0.0001), while titers were not different in seronegative individuals. Pro-inflammatory cytokine concentrations were not associated with serological status.

CONCLUSION

Our work demonstrated a very high unrecognized exposure to SARS-CoV-2 among newly admitted and hospitalized psychiatric inpatients, which is cause for concern in the context of highly robust evidence of adverse outcomes following COVID-19 in psychiatric patients. Attention should be directed toward monitoring and mitigating exposure to infectious agents within psychiatric hospitals.

Frailty, an Independent Risk Factor in Progression Trajectory of Cardiometabolic Multimorbidity: A Prospective Study of UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Although frailty was associated with cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs, including coronary heart disease, stroke, and diabetes here), there was no systematic analyses estimating its role in incidence, progression, and prognosis of cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM).

METHODS

We included 351 205 participants without CMDs at baseline in UK Biobank. Occurrences of first CMD, CMM, and death were recorded. We used multistate models to assess transition-specific role of baseline frailty measured by frailty phenotype and frailty index in CMM progression trajectory from no disease to single CMD, CMM, and death. Association between changes in frailty and outcomes was investigated among 17 264 participants.

RESULTS

Among 351 205 participants (44.0% male, mean age 56.55 years), 8 190 (2.3%) had frail phenotype, and 13 615 (3.9%) were moderate/severe frail according to the frailty index. During median follow-up of 13.11 years, 41 558 participants experienced ≥1 CMD, 4 952 had CMM, and 20 670 died. In multistate models, frail phenotype-related hazard ratios were 1.94 and 2.69 for transitions from no CMD to single disease and death, 1.63 and 1.67 for transitions from single CMD to CMM and death, and 1.57 for transitions from CMM to death (all p < .001). Consistent results were observed for frailty index. Improvement of frailty reduced the risk of CMD progression and death.

CONCLUSIONS

Frailty is an independent risk factor for all transitions of CMM progression trajectory. Frailty-targeted management is a potential strategy for primary and secondary prevention of CMM beyond chronological age.

Understanding covid-19 outcomes among people with intellectual disabilities in England

BACKGROUND

Evidence from the UK from the early stages of the covid-19 pandemic showed that people with Intellectual Disabilities (ID) had higher rates of covid-19 mortality than people without ID. However, estimates of the magnitude of risk vary widely; different studies used different time periods; and only early stages of the pandemic have been analysed. Existing analyses of risk factors have also been limited. The objective of this study was to investigate covid-19 mortality rates, hospitalisation rates, and risk factors in people with ID in England up to the end of 2021.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of all people with a laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection or death involving covid-19. Datasets covering primary care, secondary care, covid-19 tests and vaccinations, prescriptions, and deaths were linked at individual level.

RESULTS

Covid-19 carries a disproportionately higher risk of death for people with ID, above their already higher risk of dying from other causes, in comparison to those without ID. Around 2,000 people with ID had a death involving covid-19 in England up to the end of 2021; approximately 1 in 180. The covid-19 standardized mortality ratio was 5.6 [95% CI 5.4, 5.9]. People with ID were also more likely to be hospitalised for covid-19 than people without ID. The main determinants of severe covid-19 outcomes (deaths and/or hospitalisations) in both populations were age, multimorbidity and vaccination status. The key factor responsible for the higher risk of severe covid-19 in the ID population was a much higher prevalence of multimorbidity in this population. AstraZeneca vaccine was slightly less effective in preventing severe covid-19 outcomes among people with ID than among people without ID.

CONCLUSIONS

People with ID should be considered a priority group in future pandemics, such as shielding and vaccinations.

Time-sensitive testing pressures and COVID-19 outcomes: are socioeconomic inequalities over the first year of the pandemic explained by selection bias?

BACKGROUND

There are many ways in which selection bias might impact COVID-19 research. Here we focus on selection for receiving a polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR) SARS-CoV-2 test and how known changes to selection pressures over time may bias research into COVID-19 infection.

METHODS

Using UK Biobank (N = 420,231; 55% female; mean age = 66.8 [SD = 8·11]) we estimate the association between socio-economic position (SEP) and (i) being tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection versus not being tested (ii) testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection versus testing negative and (iii) testing negative for SARS-CoV-2 infection versus not being tested. We construct four distinct time-periods between March 2020 and March 2021, representing distinct periods of testing pressures and lockdown restrictions and specify both time-stratified and combined models for each outcome. We explore potential selection bias by examining associations with positive and negative control exposures.

RESULTS

The association between more disadvantaged SEP and receiving a SARS-CoV-2 test attenuated over time. Compared to individuals with a degree, individuals whose highest educational qualification was a GCSE or equivalent had an OR of 1·27 (95% CI: 1·18 to 1·37) in March-May 2020 and 1·13 (95% CI: 1.·10 to 1·16) in January-March 2021. The magnitude of the association between educational attainment and testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection increased over the same period. For the equivalent comparison, the OR for testing positive increased from 1·25 (95% CI: 1·04 to 1·47), to 1·69 (95% CI: 1·55 to 1·83). We found little evidence of an association between control exposures, and any considered outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

The association between SEP and SARS-CoV-2 testing changed over time, highlighting the potential of time-specific selection pressures to bias analyses of COVID-19. Positive and negative control analyses suggest that changes in the association between SEP and SARS-CoV-2 infection over time likely reflect true increases in socioeconomic inequalities.

Association between ethnic background and COVID-19 morbidity, mortality and vaccination in England: a multistate cohort analysis using the UK Biobank

OBJECTIVES

Despite growing evidence suggesting increased COVID-19 mortality among people from ethnic minorities, little is known about milder forms of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We sought to explore the association between ethnic background and the probability of testing, testing positive, hospitalisation, COVID-19 mortality and vaccination uptake.

DESIGN

A multistate cohort analysis. Participants were followed between 8 April 2020 and 30 September 2021.

SETTING

The UK Biobank, which stores medical data on around half a million people who were recruited between 2006 and 2010.

PARTICIPANTS

405 541 subjects were eligible for analysis, limited to UK Biobank participants living in England. 23 891 (6%) of participants were non-white.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The associations between ethnic background and testing, testing positive, hospitalisation and COVID-19 mortality were studied using multistate survival analyses. The association with single and double-dose vaccination was also modelled. Multistate models adjusted for age, sex and socioeconomic deprivation were fitted to estimate adjusted HRs (aHR) for each of the multistate transitions.

RESULTS

18 172 (4.5%) individuals tested positive, 3285 (0.8%) tested negative and then positive, 1490 (6.9% of those tested positive) were hospitalised, and 129 (0.6%) tested positive at the moment of hospital admission (ie, direct hospitalisation). Finally, 662 (17.4%) died after admission. Compared with white participants, Asian participants had an increased risk of negative to positive transition (aHR 1.24 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.52)), testing positive (95% CI 1.44 (1.33 to 1.55)) and direct hospitalisation (1.61 (95% CI 1.28 to 2.03)). Black participants had an increased risk of hospitalisation following a positive test (1.71 (95% CI 1.29 to 2.27)) and direct hospitalisation (1.90 (95% CI 1.51 to 2.39)). Although not the case for Asians (aHR 1.00 (95% CI 0.98 to 1.02)), black participants had a reduced vaccination probability (0.63 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.65)). In contrast, Chinese participants had a reduced risk of testing negative (aHR 0.64 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.73)), of testing positive (0.40 (95% CI 0.28 to 0.57)) and of vaccination (0.78 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.83)).

CONCLUSIONS

We identified inequities in testing, vaccination and COVID-19 outcomes according to ethnicity in England. Compared with whites, Asian participants had increased risks of infection and admission, and black participants had almost double hospitalisation risk, and a 40% lower vaccine uptake.

The Impact of Long-Term Conditions and Comorbidity Patterns on COVID-19 Infection and Hospitalisation: A Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

Older adults are more vulnerable to COVID-19 infections; however, little is known about which comorbidity patterns are related to a higher risk of COVID-19 infection. This study investigated the role of long-term conditions or comorbidity patterns on COVID-19 infection and related hospitalisations.

METHODS

This study included 4,428 individuals from Waves 8 (2016-2017) and 9 (2018-2019) of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) who also participated in the ELSA COVID-19 Substudy in 2020. Comorbidity patterns were identified using an agglomerative hierarchical clustering method. The relationships between comorbidity patterns or long-term conditions and COVID-19-related outcomes were examined using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

Among a representative sample of community-dwelling older adults in England, those with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and complex comorbidities had an almost double risk of COVID-19 infection (OR = 1.87, 95% CI = 1.42-2.46) but not of COVID-19-related hospitalisation. A similar pattern was observed for the heterogeneous comorbidities cluster (OR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.24-1.96). The individual investigations of long-term conditions with COVID-19 infection highlighted primary associations with CVD (OR = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.23-1.74), lung diseases (OR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.17-1.69), psychiatric conditions (OR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.16-1.68), retinopathy/eye diseases (OR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.18-1.64), and arthritis (OR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.09-1.48). In contrast, metabolic disorders and diagnosed diabetes were not associated with any COVID-19 outcomes.

CONCLUSION

This study provides novel insights into the comorbidity patterns that are more vulnerable to COVID-19 infections and hospitalisations, highlighting the vulnerability of those with CVD and other complex comorbidities. These findings facilitate crucial new evidence that should be considered for appropriate screening measures and tailored interventions for older adults in the ongoing global outbreak.

Biomarkers of glucose homeostasis as mediators of the relationship of body mass index and waist circumference with COVID-19 outcomes among postmenopausal women: The Women's Health Initiative

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Systematic reviews, meta-analyses and Mendelian randomization studies suggest that cardiometabolic diseases may be associated with COVID-19 risk and prognosis, with evidence implicating insulin resistance (IR) as a common biological mechanism. As driving factors for IR, we examined body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) among postmenopausal women in association with COVID-19 outcomes (positivity and hospitalization), and the role of glucose homeostasis as a mediator of this relationship.

METHODS

Associations of BMI and WC at baseline (1993-1998) with COVID-19 outcomes collected at Survey 1 (June-December, 2020) and/or Survey 2 (September-December, 2021) were evaluated among 42,770 Women's Health Initiative (WHI) participants (baseline age: 59.36 years) of whom 16,526 self-reported having taken ≥1 COVID-19 test, with 1242 reporting ≥1 positive COVID-19 test and 362 reporting ≥1 COVID-19 hospitalization. We applied logistic regression and causal mediation analyses to sub-samples with available fasting biomarkers of glucose homeostasis (glucose, insulin, Homeostatic Model Assessment for Insulin Resistance, Homeostasis Model Assessment for β-cell function, Quantitative Insulin-sensitivity Check Index, Triglyceride-Glucose index (TyG)) at baseline, whereby 57 of 759 reported COVID-19 test positivity and 23 of 1896 reported COVID-19 hospitalization.

RESULTS

In fully adjusted models, higher BMI, WC and TyG were associated with COVID-19 test positivity and hospitalization. Glucose concentrations mediated associations of BMI and WC with COVID-19 positivity, whereas TyG mediated BMI and WC's associations with COVID-19 hospitalization.

CONCLUSIONS

Obesity and central obesity markers collected an average of 24 years prior were associated with COVID-19 outcomes among postmenopausal women. Glucose concentration and TyG partly mediated these associations.

Risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic literature review

Introduction

Identifying SARS-CoV-2 infection risk factors allows targeted public health and social measures (PHSM). As new, more transmissible variants of concern (VoC) emerge, vaccination rates increase and PHSM are eased, it is important to understand any potential change to infection risk factors. The aim of this systematic literature review is to describe the risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection by VoC.

Methods

A literature search was performed in MEDLINE, PubMed and Embase databases on 5 May 2022. Eligibility included: observational studies published in English after 1 January 2020; any age group; the outcome of SARS-CoV-2 infection; and any potential risk factors investigated in the study. Results were synthesized into a narrative summary with respect to measures of association, by VoC. ROBINS-E tool was utilized for risk of bias assessment.

Results

Of 6,197 studies retrieved, 43 studies were included after screening. Common risk factors included older age, minority ethnic group, low socioeconomic status, male gender, increased household size, occupation/lower income level, inability to work from home, public transport use, and lower education level. Most studies were undertaken when the ancestral strain was predominant. Many studies had some selection bias due to testing criteria and limited laboratory capacity.

Conclusion

Understanding who is at risk enables the development of strategies that target priority groups at each of the different stages of a pandemic and helps inform vaccination strategies and other interventions which may also inform public health responses to future respiratory infection outbreaks. While it was not possible to determine changes to infection risk by recent VoC in this review, the risk factors identified will add to the overall understanding of the groups who are at greatest risk of infection in the early stages of a respiratory virus outbreak.

Systematic review registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42022330706, PROSPERO [CRD42022330706].

PheMIME: An Interactive Web App and Knowledge Base for Phenome-Wide, Multi-Institutional Multimorbidity Analysis

Motivation

Multimorbidity, characterized by the simultaneous occurrence of multiple diseases in an individual, is an increasing global health concern, posing substantial challenges to healthcare systems. Comprehensive understanding of disease-disease interactions and intrinsic mechanisms behind multimorbidity can offer opportunities for innovative prevention strategies, targeted interventions, and personalized treatments. Yet, there exist limited tools and datasets that characterize multimorbidity patterns across different populations. To bridge this gap, we used large-scale electronic health record (EHR) systems to develop the Phenome-wide Multi-Institutional Multimorbidity Explorer (PheMIME), which facilitates research in exploring and comparing multimorbidity patterns among multiple institutions, potentially leading to the discovery of novel and robust disease associations and patterns that are interoperable across different systems and organizations.

Results

PheMIME integrates summary statistics from phenome-wide analyses of disease multimorbidities. These are currently derived from three major institutions: Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Mass General Brigham, and the UK Biobank. PheMIME offers interactive exploration of multimorbidity through multi-faceted visualization. Incorporating an enhanced version of associationSubgraphs, PheMIME enables dynamic analysis and inference of disease clusters, promoting the discovery of multimorbidity patterns. Once a disease of interest is selected, the tool generates interactive visualizations and tables that users can delve into multimorbidities or multimorbidity networks within a single system or compare across multiple systems. The utility of PheMIME is demonstrated through a case study on schizophrenia.

Availability and implementation

The PheMIME knowledge base and web application are accessible at https://prod.tbilab.org/PheMIME/. A comprehensive tutorial, including a use-case example, is available at https://prod.tbilab.org/PheMIME_supplementary_materials/. Furthermore, the source code for PheMIME can be freely downloaded from https://github.com/tbilab/PheMIME.

Data availability statement

The data underlying this article are available in the article and in its online web application or supplementary material.

The impact of long-term conditions and comorbidity patterns on COVID-19 infection and hospitalisation: a cohort study

Introduction

Older adults are usually more vulnerable to COVID-19 infections; however, little is known about which comorbidity patterns are related to a higher probability of COVID-19 infection. This study investigated the role of long-term conditions or comorbidity patterns on COVID-19 infection and related hospitalisations.

Methods

This study included 4,428 individuals from Waves 8 (2016-2017) and 9 (2018-2019) of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), who also participated in the ELSA COVID-19 Substudy in 2020. Comorbidity patterns of chronic conditions were identified using an agglomerative hierarchical clustering method. The relationships between comorbidity patterns or long-term conditions and COVID-19 related outcomes were examined using multivariable logistic regression.

Results

Among a representative sample of community-dwelling older adults in England, those with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and complex comorbidities had an almost double risk of COVID-19 infection (OR=1.87, 95% CI=1.42-2.46) but not of COVID-19 related hospitalisation. A similar pattern was observed for the heterogeneous comorbidities cluster (OR=1.56, 95% CI=1.24-1.96). The individual investigations of long-term conditions with COVID-19 infection highlighted primary associations with CVD (OR=1.46, 95% CI=1.23-1.74), lung diseases (OR=1.40, 95% CI=1.17-1.69), psychiatric conditions (OR=1.40, 95% CI=1.16-1.68), retinopathy/eye diseases (OR=1.39, 95% CI=1.18-1.64), and arthritis (OR=1.27, 95% CI=1.09-1.48). In contrast, metabolic disorders and diagnosed diabetes were not associated with any COVID-19 outcomes.

Discussion/Conclusion

This study provides novel insights into the comorbidity patterns that are more vulnerable to COVID-19 infections and highlights the importance of CVD and complex comorbidities.These findings facilitate crucial new evidence for appropriate screening measures and tailored interventions for older adults in the ongoing global outbreak.

Multimorbidity and SARS-CoV-2-Related Outcomes: Analysis of a Cohort of Italian Patients

BACKGROUND

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, identifying the main risk factors has been imperative to properly manage the public health challenges that the pandemic exposes, such as organizing effective vaccination campaigns. In addition to gender and age, multimorbidity seems to be 1 of the predisposing factors coming out of many studies investigating the possible causes of increased susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection and adverse outcomes. However, only a few studies conducted have used large samples.

OBJECTIVE

The objective is to evaluate the association between multimorbidity, the probability to be tested, susceptibility, and the severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Piedmont population (Northern Italy, about 4 million inhabitants). For this purpose, we considered 5 main outcomes: access to the swab, positivity to SARS-CoV-2, hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and death within 30 days from the first positive swab.

METHODS

Data were obtained from different Piedmont health administrative databases. Subjects aged from 45 to 74 years and infections diagnosed from February to May 2020 were considered. Multimorbidity was defined both with the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and by identifying patients with previous comorbidities, such as diabetes and oncological, cardiovascular, and respiratory diseases. Multivariable logistic regression models (adjusted for age and month of infection and stratified by gender) were performed for each outcome. Analyses were also conducted by separating 2 age groups (45-59 and 60-74 years).

RESULTS

Of 1,918,549 subjects, 85,348 (4.4%) performed at least 1 swab, of whom 12,793 (14.9%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Of these 12,793 subjects, 4644 (36.3%) were hospitalized, 1508 (11.8%) were admitted to the ICU, and 749 (5.9%) died within 30 days from the first positive swab. Individuals with a higher CCI had a higher probability of being swabbed but a lower probability of testing positive. We observed the same results when analyzing subjects with previous oncological and cardiovascular diseases. Moreover, especially in the youngest group, we identified a greater risk of being hospitalized and dying. Among comorbidities considered in the study, respiratory diseases seemed to be the most likely to increase the risk of having a positive swab and worse disease outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows that patients with multimorbidity, although swabbed more frequently, are less likely to get infected with SARS-CoV-2, probably due to greater attention on protective methods. Moreover, a history of respiratory diseases is a risk factor for a worse prognosis of COVID-19. Nonetheless, whatever comorbidities affect the patients, a strong dose-response effect was observed between an increased CCI score and COVID-19 hospitalization, ICU admission, and death. These results are important in terms of public health because they help in identifying a group of subjects who are more prone to worse SARS-CoV-2 outcomes. This information is important for promoting targeted prevention and developing policies for the prioritization of public health interventions.

The impact of polypharmacy on 30-day COVID-related mortality in nursing home residents: a multicenter retrospective cohort study

PURPOSE

Both the coronavirus (COVID-19) disease and polypharmacy pose a serious threat to nursing home (NH) residents. This study aimed to assess the impact of polypharmacy on 30-day COVID-related mortality in NH residents with COVID-19.

METHODS

Multicenter retrospective cohort study including NH residents from 15 NHs in the Netherlands. The impact of polypharmacy on 30-day COVID-related mortality was evaluated and assessed using multivariable logistic regression analyses with correction for age, sex, CCI, BMI and vaccination status.

RESULTS

In total, 348 NH residents were included, with a mean age of 84 years (SD = 8); 65% were female, 70% lived in a psychogeriatric ward, with a main diagnosis of dementia. 30-day COVID-related mortality was 27.3%. We found a significant, positive association between the total number of medications and 30-day COVID-related mortality (OR 1.09; 95% CI 1.001-1.20, p = 0.046), after adjustment for age, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), Body Mass Index (BMI) and vaccination status. After additional correction for dementia (model 2) and use of PPI, vitamin D, antipsychotics and antithrombotics (model 3), this effect remained positive, but was no longer significant.

CONCLUSION

Nursing home residents with a higher number of medications and who were not vaccinated, had a higher 30-day COVID-related mortality. These findings have important implications for the management of COVID-19 in the frail NH population. As such they underline the importance of deprescribing on the one hand, but also of improving vaccination rates on the other.

Ethnic inequalities in the impact of COVID-19 on primary care consultations: a time series analysis of 460,084 individuals with multimorbidity in South London

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic caused rapid changes in primary care delivery in the UK, with concerns that certain groups of the population may have faced increased barriers to access. This study assesses the impact of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic on primary care consultations for individuals with multimorbidity and identifies ethnic inequalities.

METHODS

A longitudinal study based on monthly data from primary care health records of 460,084 patients aged ≥18 years from 41 GP practices in South London, from February 2018 to March 2021. Descriptive analysis and interrupted time series (ITS) models were used to analyse the effect of the pandemic on primary care consultations for people with multimorbidity and to identify if the effect varied by ethnic groups and consultation type.

RESULTS

Individuals with multimorbidity experienced a smaller initial fall in trend at the start of the pandemic. Their primary care consultation rates remained stable (879 (95% CI 869-890) per 1000 patients in February to 882 (870-894) March 2020), compared with a 7% decline among people without multimorbidity (223 consultations (95% CI 221-226) to 208 (205-210)). The gap in consultations between the two groups reduced after July 2020. The effect among individuals with multimorbidity varied by ethnic group. Ethnic minority groups experienced a slightly larger fall at the start of the pandemic. Individuals of Black, Asian, and Other ethnic backgrounds also switched from face-to-face to telephone at a higher rate than other ethnic groups. The largest fall in face-to-face consultations was observed among people from Asian backgrounds (their consultation rates declined from 676 (659-693) in February to 348 (338-359) in April 2020), which may have disproportionately affected their quality of care.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly affected primary care utilisation in patients with multimorbidity. While there is evidence of a successful needs-based prioritisation of multimorbidity patients within primary care at the start of the pandemic, inequalities among ethnic minority groups were found. Strengthening disease management for these groups may be necessary to control widening inequalities in future health outcomes.

Chronic pain and COVID-19 hospitalisation and mortality: a UK Biobank cohort study

ABSTRACT

The risk of COVID-19 in those with chronic pain is unknown. We investigated whether self-reported chronic pain was associated with COVID-19 hospitalisation or mortality. UK Biobank recruited 502,624 participants aged 37 to 73 years between 2006 and 2010. Baseline exposure data, including chronic pain (>3 months, in at least 1 of 7 prespecified body sites) and chronic widespread pain (>3 months, all over body), were linked to COVID-19 hospitalisations or mortality. Univariable or multivariable Poisson regression analyses were performed on the association between chronic pain and COVID-19 hospitalisation and Cox regression analyses of the associations with COVID-19 mortality. Multivariable analyses adjusted incrementally for sociodemographic confounders, then lifestyle risk factors, and finally long-term condition count. Of 441,403 UK Biobank participants with complete data, 3180 (0.7%) were hospitalised for COVID-19 and 1040 (0.2%) died from COVID-19. Chronic pain was associated with hospital admission for COVID-19 even after adjustment for all covariates (incidence rate ratio 1.16; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08-1.24; P < 0.001), as was chronic widespread pain (incidence rate ratio 1.33; 95% CI 1.06-1.66; P = 0.012). There was clear evidence of a dose-response relationship with number of pain sites (fully adjusted global P -value < 0.001). After adjustment for all covariates, there was no association between chronic pain (HR 1.01; 95% CI 0.89-1.15; P = 0.834) but attenuated association with chronic widespread pain (HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.04-2.16, P -value = 0.032) and COVID-19 mortality. Chronic pain is associated with higher risk of hospitalisation for COVID-19, but the association with mortality is unclear. Future research is required to investigate these findings further and determine whether pain is associated with long COVID.

SARS-CoV-2 infection risk among 77,587 healthcare workers: a national observational longitudinal cohort study in Wales, United Kingdom, April to November 2020

OBJECTIVES

To better understand the risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection among healthcare workers, leading to recommendations for the prioritisation of personal protective equipment, testing, training and vaccination.

DESIGN

Observational, longitudinal, national cohort study.

SETTING

Our cohort were secondary care (hospital-based) healthcare workers employed by NHS Wales (United Kingdom) organisations from 1 April 2020 to 30 November 2020.

PARTICIPANTS

We included 577,756 monthly observations among 77,587 healthcare workers. Using linked anonymised datasets, participants were grouped into 20 staff roles. Additionally, each role was deemed either patient-facing, non-patient-facing or undetermined. This was linked to individual demographic details and dates of positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

We used univariable and multivariable logistic regression models to determine odds ratios (ORs) for the risk of a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test.

RESULTS

Patient-facing healthcare workers were at the highest risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection with an adjusted OR (95% confidence interval [CI]) of 2.28 (95% CI 2.10-2.47). We found that after adjustment, foundation year doctors (OR 1.83 [95% CI 1.47-2.27]), healthcare support workers [OR 1.36 [95% CI 1.20-1.54]) and hospital nurses (OR 1.27 [95% CI 1.12-1.44]) were at the highest risk of infection among all staff groups. Younger healthcare workers and those living in more deprived areas were at a higher risk of infection. We also observed that infection rates varied over time and by organisation.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings have important policy implications for the prioritisation of vaccination, testing, training and personal protective equipment provision for patient-facing roles and the higher risk staff groups.

Use of fish oil and mortality of patients with cardiometabolic multimorbidity: A prospective study of UK biobank

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM) has risen as a global issue of public health, with an in-creasing prevalence and more severe clinical prognosis. This study aimed to estimate the association between use of fish oil and mortality among patients with CMM.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In this prospective study based on UK Biobank, participants with ≥2 of cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs, including coronary heart disease [CHD], diabetes, hypertension, and stroke in this study) at recruitment were included. Use of fish oil was derived from touchscreen questionnaires at baseline. All-cause and cardiovascular mortality were accessed via electronic health-related records. Kaplan-Meier curves and flexible parametric Royston-Parmar proportion-hazard models were fitted to assess the as-sociations of fish-oil use with all-cause, cardiovascular mortality, and related life expectancy alterations. Among 30 068 participants from UK Biobank (67.9% men; mean age 61.75 years), 5357 deaths were reported during 12.03 years of follow-up. For patients with CMM, use of fish oil was associated with a 17% lower risk of all-cause mortality (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.78-0.88, P < 0.001), and 19% lower risk of cardiovascular mortality (95% CI 0.72-0.90, P < 0.001) in multivariable-adjusted models. At 45 years old, using fish oil was associated with 1.66 years of life expectancy gained.

CONCLUSION

Among patients with CMM, use of fish oil was associated with a significantly reduced risk of all-cause, cardiovascular mortality, and prolonged life expectancy.

Aetiological and prognostic roles of frailty, multimorbidity and socioeconomic characteristics in the development of SARS-CoV-2 health outcomes: protocol for systematic reviews of population-based studies

INTRODUCTION

There is growing evidence that the impact of COVID-19 crisis may be stronger for individuals with multimorbidity, frailty and lower socioeconomic status. Existing reviews focus on few, mainly short-term effects of COVID-19 illness and patients with single chronic disease. Information is also largely missing for population representative samples.Applying population-based approach, the systematic reviews will have two objectives: (1) to evaluate the aetiological roles of frailty, multimorbidity and socioeconomic status on SARS-CoV-2 infection probability, hospitalisation, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation and COVID-19 related mortality among general population and (2) to investigate the prognostic roles of frailty, multimorbidity and socioeconomic characteristics on the risk of hospitalisation, ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, COVID-19 mortality, functioning, quality of life, disability, mental health and work absence.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

For this ongoing work, four databases were searched: PubMed, Embase, WHO COVID-19 Global literature on coronavirus disease and PsycINFO, for the period between January 2020 and April 7 2021. Peer-reviewed published literature in English and all types of population-based studies will be considered. Studies using standard tools to assess multimorbidity such as disease count, comorbidity indices or disease combinations will be retained, as well as studies with standard scales and scores for frailty or measurement of a socioeconomic gradient. Initial search included 10 139 articles, 411 for full-text reading. Results will be summarised by risk factor, objective and outcome. The feasibility of meta-analysis will be determined by the findings and will aim to better understand uncertainties of the results. Quality of studies will be assessed using standardised scales.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study will be based on published evidence, and it is exempt from the ethical approval. This work is part of the Population Health Information Research Infrastructure (PHIRI) project. Dissemination of the results will imply conference presentation, submission for scientific publication and PHIRI project report.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42021249444.

A bidirectional relationship between diabetes mellitus and anxiety: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Due to the existence of inconsistencies in the evidence regarding the direction and extent of association between diabetes and anxiety disorders, the anxiety-diabetes comorbidity remains an issue of debate.

AIM

To estimate the proportion and risk of diabetes among individuals with anxiety disorder and vice versa.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted using studies retrieved from databases and grey literature, with the last database search being conducted on April 15, 2021. The methodological rigor of studies was assessed using the National Institute of Health quality assessment tool. Prevalence and effect size (ES) estimates were pooled using a random effect model. Heterogeneity was assessed using the Higgins' I² statistical test, and subgroup analysis conducted.

RESULTS

We included 68 studies presenting data from 2,128,029 participants. The prevalence of anxiety disorders in diabetic patients was 28% (95% CI: 26%, 31%); however, subgroup analysis showed significant differences based on type of anxiety assessment scales, study location, and type of diabetes. The prevalence of diabetes among patients with anxiety disorders was 12% (95% CI: 9%, 16%). Patients with anxiety disorders were found to have a 19% higher risk of diabetes (pooled effect size (ES) = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.13, 1.26). Diabetic patients were found to have a 41% higher risk of developing anxiety disorders (ES = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.19, 1.62).

CONCLUSIONS

There is a higher risk of anxiety disorders in patients with diabetes mellitus and vice versa. It is recommended to screen diabetic patients for anxiety at initial diagnosis and follow-up visits. Similarly, patients with anxiety disorders should have regular screening for diabetes.

REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO registration number CRD42021252475.

Identifying pre-existing conditions and multimorbidity patterns associated with in-hospital mortality in patients with COVID-19

We investigated the association between a wide range of comorbidities and COVID-19 in-hospital mortality and assessed the influence of multi morbidity on the risk of COVID-19-related death using a large, regional cohort of 6036 hospitalized patients. This retrospective cohort study was conducted using Patient Administration System Admissions and Discharges data. The International Classification of Diseases 10th edition (ICD-10) diagnosis codes were used to identify common comorbidities and the outcome measure. Individuals with lymphoma (odds ratio [OR], 2.78;95% CI,1.64-4.74), metastatic cancer (OR, 2.17; 95% CI,1.25-3.77), solid tumour without metastasis (OR, 1.67; 95% CI,1.16-2.41), liver disease (OR: 2.50, 95% CI,1.53-4.07), congestive heart failure (OR, 1.69; 95% CI,1.32-2.15), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR, 1.43; 95% CI,1.18-1.72), obesity (OR, 5.28; 95% CI,2.92-9.52), renal disease (OR, 1.81; 95% CI,1.51-2.19), and dementia (OR, 1.44; 95% CI,1.17-1.76) were at increased risk of COVID-19 mortality. Asthma was associated with a lower risk of death compared to non-asthma controls (OR, 0.60; 95% CI,0.42-0.86). Individuals with two (OR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.47-2.20; P < 0.001), and three or more comorbidities (OR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.43-2.27; P < 0.001) were at increasingly higher risk of death when compared to those with no underlying conditions. Furthermore, multi morbidity patterns were analysed by identifying clusters of conditions in hospitalised COVID-19 patients using k-mode clustering, an unsupervised machine learning technique. Six patient clusters were identified, with recognisable co-occurrences of COVID-19 with different combinations of diseases, namely, cardiovascular (100%) and renal (15.6%) diseases in patient Cluster 1; mental and neurological disorders (100%) with metabolic and endocrine diseases (19.3%) in patient Cluster 2; respiratory (100%) and cardiovascular (15.0%) diseases in patient Cluster 3, cancer (5.9%) with genitourinary (9.0%) as well as metabolic and endocrine diseases (9.6%) in patient Cluster 4; metabolic and endocrine diseases (100%) and cardiovascular diseases (69.1%) in patient Cluster 5; mental and neurological disorders (100%) with cardiovascular diseases (100%) in patient Cluster 6. The highest mortality of 29.4% was reported in Cluster 6.

Association of Household Deprivation, Comorbidities, and COVID-19 Hospitalization in Children in Germany, January 2020 to July 2021

IMPORTANCE

Adults in disadvantaged socioeconomic positions have elevated risks of a severe course of COVID-19, but it is unclear whether this holds true for children.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether young people from disadvantaged households have a higher risk of COVID-19 hospitalization and whether differences were associated with comorbidities that predispose children to severe courses.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This population-based cohort study included all children and adolescents (aged 0-18 years) who were enrolled in a statutory health insurance carrier in Germany during the observation period of January 1, 2020, to July 13, 2021. Logistic regressions were calculated to compare children from households with and without an indication of poverty. Age, sex, days under observation, nationality, and comorbidities (eg, obesity, diabetes) were controlled for to account for explanatory factors.

EXPOSURES

Disadvantage on the household level was assessed by the employment status of the insurance holder (ie, employed, long- or short-term unemployed, low-wage employment, economically inactive). Socioeconomic characteristics of the area of residence were also assessed.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Daily hospital diagnoses of COVID-19 (International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision codes U07.1 and U07.2) were recorded. Comorbidities were assessed using inpatient and outpatient diagnoses contained in the insurance records.

RESULTS

A total of 688 075 children and adolescents were included, with a mean (SD) age of 8.3 (5.8) years and 333 489 (48.4%) female participants. COVID-19 hospital diagnosis was a rare event (1637 participants [0.2%]). Children whose parents were long-term unemployed were 1.36 (95% CI, 1.22-1.51) times more likely than those with employed parents to be hospitalized. Elevated odds were also found for children whose parents had low-wage employment (odds ratio, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.05-1.58). Those living in low-income areas had 3.02 (95% CI, 1.73-5.28) times higher odds of hospitalization than those in less deprived areas. Comorbidities were associated with hospitalization, but their adjustment did not change main estimates for deprivation.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study, children who had parents who were unemployed and those who lived in low-income areas were at higher risk of COVID-19 hospitalization. This finding suggests that attention must be paid to children with SARS-CoV-2 from vulnerable families and closer monitoring should be considered. A number of explanatory factors, including comorbidities, were taken into account, but their analysis yielded no clear picture about underlying processes.

Elderly Population Has Higher Prevalence of Polypharmacy Associated with Poor Quality of Life and Low Compliance after Recovery from COVID-19

Background

Long term effects of COVID are not fully understood yet. The geriatric population has been badly affected. The impact of COVID-19 on the health-related quality of life after recovery and patient compliance is a matter of concern especially in the geriatric population where polypharmacy is often prevalent.

Aims and Objectives

This study intended to observe the occurrence of polypharmacy (PP) among COVID-19 recovered older patients with multimorbidity and explore its association with health-related quality of life and compliance in these patients.

Materials and Methods

Total 90 patients, above 60 years of age having two or more co-morbidities and recovered from COVID-19 infection were included in this cross-sectional study. Number of pills taken daily by each patient was noted, to determine the occurrence of PP. WHO-QOL-BREF was used to assess the effect of PP on health-related quality of life (HRQOL). Medication adherence was measured using a self-reported questionnaire.

Results

PP was found in 94.4% while hyper polypharmacy was found in 45.56% of patients. The overall mean score of HRQOL in patients with PP was 187.91 ± 32.98, indicating poor quality of life with PP (p value 0.0014) whereas the overall mean score of HRQOL in patients with hyper polypharmacy was 177.41 ± 26.11, showing poor quality of life with hyper polypharmacy (p value 0.0005). Increased number of pills corelated with poor quality of life (r =0.49). The medication adherence was found to be poor in patients who received mean number of pills 10.44 ± 2.62 whereas the adherence was good if the mean number of pills was 8.20 ± 2.63, (p value of 0.0001).

Conclusion

Polypharmacy is highly prevalent among COVID-19 recovered patients and is associated with poor quality of life as well as poor medication adherence.

Maximising the health impacts of free advice services in the UK: A mixed methods systematic review

After a decade of austerity spending cuts and welfare reform, the COVID-19 pandemic has posed further challenges to the finances, health and wellbeing of working-age, low-income people. While advice services have been widely seen (and funded) as an income maximisation intervention, their health and well-being impact is less clear. Previous systematic reviews investigating the link between advice services and health outcomes have found a weak evidence base and cover the period up until 2010. This mixed methods review examined up to date evidence to help understand the health impacts of free and independent welfare rights advice services. We included evaluations of free to access advice services on social welfare issues for members of the public that included health outcomes. Through comprehensive searches of two bibliographic databases and websites of relevant organisations we identified 15 articles based on a mixture of study designs. The advice interventions evaluated were based in a range of settings and only limited information was available on the delivery and nature of advice offered. We undertook a convergent synthesis to analyse data on the effectiveness of advice services on health outcomes and to explain variation in these outcomes. Our synthesis suggested that improvements in mental health and well-being measures are commonly attributed to advice service interventions. However, there is little insight to explain these impacts or to inform the delivery of services that maximise health benefits. Co-locating services in health settings appears promising and embracing models of delivery that promote collaboration between organisations tackling the social determinants of health may help to address the inherent complexities in the delivery of advice services and client needs. We make recommendations to improve routine monitoring and reporting by advice services, and methods of evaluation that will better account for complexity and context.

Global prevalence of polypharmacy among the COVID-19 patients: a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies

Background

Polypharmacy has traditionally been defined in various texts as the use of 5 or more chronic drugs, the use of inappropriate drugs, or drugs that are not clinically authorized. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of polypharmacy among the COVID-19 patients, and the side effects, by systematic review and meta-analysis.

Methods

This study was performed by systematic review method and in accordance with PRISMA 2020 criteria. The protocol in this work is registered in PROSPERO (CRD42021281552). Particular databases and repositories have been searched to identify and select relevant studies. The quality of articles was assessed based on the Newcastle–Ottawa Scale checklist. Heterogeneity of the studies was measured using the I² test.

Results

The results of meta-analysis showed that the prevalence of polypharmacy in 14 studies with a sample size of 189,870 patients with COVID-19 is 34.6% (95% CI: 29.6–40). Studies have shown that polypharmacy is associated with side effects, increased morbidity and mortality among patients with COVID-19. The results of meta-regression analysis reported that with increasing age of COVID-19 patients, the prevalence of polypharmacy increases (p < 0.05).

Discussion

The most important strength of this study is the updated search to June 2022 and the use of all databases to increase the accuracy and sensitivity of the study. The most important limitation of this study is the lack of proper definition of polypharmacy in some studies and not mentioning the number of drugs used for patients in these studies.

Conclusion

Polypharmacy is seen in many patients with COVID-19. Since there is no definitive cure for COVID-19, the multiplicity of drugs used to treat this disease can affect the severity of the disease and its side effects as a result of drug interactions. This highlights the importance of controlling and managing prescription drugs for patients with COVID-19.

Multi-disciplinary community respiratory team management of patients with chronic respiratory illness during the COVID-19 pandemic

The Greater Glasgow & Clyde NHS Trust Community Respiratory Response Team was established to manage patients with chronic respiratory disease at home during the COVID-19 pandemic. The team aimed to avert hospital admission while maximally utilising remote consultations. This observational study analysed outcomes of the triage pathway used, use of remote consultations, hospital admissions and mortality among patients managed by the team. Patients' electronic health records were retrospectively reviewed. Rates of emergency department attendance, hospital admission and death within 28 days of referral were compared across triage pathways. Segmented linear regression was carried out for emergency admissions in Greater Glasgow and Clyde pre- and post- Community Respiratory Response Team implementation, using emergency admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in the rest of Scotland as control and adjusting for all-cause emergency admissions. The triage category correlated with hospital admission and death. The red pathway had the highest proportion attending the emergency department (21%), significantly higher than the amber and green pathways (p = 0.03 and p = 0.004, respectively). The highest number of deaths were in the blue "end-of-life" pathway (p < 0.001). 87% of interactions were undertaken remotely. Triage severity appropriately led to targeted home visits. No nosocomial COVID-19 infections occurred among patients or staff. The Community Respiratory Response Team was associated with a significant decrease in emergency admissions (RR = 0.96 for each additional month under the Poisson model) compared to the counterfactual if the service had not been in place, suggesting a benefit in reducing secondary care pressures. The Community Respiratory Response Team effectively managed patients with chronic respiratory disease in the community, with an associated reduction in secondary care pressures during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Multimorbidity

Multimorbidity (two or more coexisting conditions in an individual) is a growing global challenge with substantial effects on individuals, carers and society. Multimorbidity occurs a decade earlier in socioeconomically deprived communities and is associated with premature death, poorer function and quality of life and increased health-care utilization. Mechanisms underlying the development of multimorbidity are complex, interrelated and multilevel, but are related to ageing and underlying biological mechanisms and broader determinants of health such as socioeconomic deprivation. Little is known about prevention of multimorbidity, but focusing on psychosocial and behavioural factors, particularly population level interventions and structural changes, is likely to be beneficial. Most clinical practice guidelines and health-care training and delivery focus on single diseases, leading to care that is sometimes inadequate and potentially harmful. Multimorbidity requires person-centred care, prioritizing what matters most to the individual and the individual's carers, ensuring care that is effectively coordinated and minimally disruptive, and aligns with the patient's values. Interventions are likely to be complex and multifaceted. Although an increasing number of studies have examined multimorbidity interventions, there is still limited evidence to support any approach. Greater investment in multimorbidity research and training along with reconfiguration of health care supporting the management of multimorbidity is urgently needed.

Noncommunicable diseases risk factors and the risk of COVID-19 among university employees in Indonesia

Introduction

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are still a major public health problem in Indonesia. Studies have shown that risk factors of NCDs are associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity and mortality. However, it is unclear whether NCD risk factors are also risks for new COVID-19 cases. This study aimed to obtain an NCD risk profile among university employees and its associations with contracting COVID-19.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted in October 2021. Participants were administrative employees of Universitas Indonesia (UI), Depok City, West Java. Assessment of NCD risk factors was based on the World Health Organization STEPwise approach to NCD risk factor surveillance (WHO STEPS). Demographic, working, and medical-history data were obtained electronically by using a Google Form. Physical and laboratory examinations were done in the Integrated Post for NCDs. Risks were expressed as adjusted odds ratio (OR_adj) and 95% confidence interval (CI) in multivariate analyses.

Results

A total of 613 employees were enrolled. Men were predominant (54.8%), and about 36% of them work in shift as security personnel. About 66.7% were overweight or obese and 77.8% had hypertension. There were 138 (22.8%) employees who had COVID-19. Nearly all (95.6%) had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. At-risk waist circumference (OR_adj 1.72, 95% CI 1.15–2.56, p = 0.008) and total cholesterol level of 200–239 mg/dL (OR_adj 2.30, 95% CI 1.19–4.44, p = 0.013) were independent risk factors, but shift work (OR_adj 0.52, 95% CI 0.34–0.80, p = 0.003) was protective against COVID-19.

Conclusion

The prevalence of NCD risk factors among university administrative employees was high, increasing the risk of contracting COVID-19. A behavioral intervention program to manage NCD risk factors at the university level is urgently needed according to the Health Promoting University framework.

Socio-demographic, lifestyle and health characteristics as predictors of self-reported Covid-19 history among older adults: 2006-2020 Health and Retirement Study

BACKGROUND

To identify key socio-demographic, lifestyle, and health predictors of self-reported coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) history, examine cardiometabolic health characteristics as predictors of self-reported Covid-19 history and compare groups with and without a history of Covid-19 on trajectories in cardiometabolic health and blood pressure measurements over time, among United States (U.S.) older adults.

METHODS

Nationally representative longitudinal data on U.S. older adults from the 2006-2020 Health and Retirement Study were analyzed using logistic and mixed-effects logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Based on logistic regression, number of household members (OR=1.26, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.52), depressive symptoms score (OR = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.42) and number of cardiometabolic risk factors or chronic conditions ("1-2" vs "0") (OR = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.11, 0.67) were significant predictors of self-reported Covid-19 history. Based on mixed-effects logistic regression, several statistically significant predictors of Covid-19 history were identified, including female sex (OR = 3.06, 95% CI: 1.57, 5.96), other race (OR = 5.85, 95% CI: 2.37, 14.43), Hispanic ethnicity (OR = 2.66, 95% CI: 1.15, 6.17), number of household members (OR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.10, 1.42), moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (1-4 times per month vs never) (OR = 0.38, 95% CI: 0.18, 0.78) and number of cardiometabolic risk factors or chronic conditions ("1-2" vs "0") (OR = 0.34, 95% CI: 0.19, 0.60).

CONCLUSIONS

Number of household members, depressive symptoms and number of cardiometabolic risk factors or chronic conditions may be key predictors for self-reported Covid-19 history among U.S. older adults. In-depth analyses are needed to confirm preliminary findings.

Foerster K, Terstegen T, Vogt C, Said A, Schulz M, E. Haefeli W. Oral Drugs Against COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Five-day oral therapies against early COVID-19 infection have recently been conditionally approved in Europe. In the drug combination nirmatrelvir + ritonavir (nirmatrelvir/r), the active agent, nirmatrelvir, is made bioavailable in clinically adequate amounts by the additional administration of a potent inhibitor of its first-pass metabolism by way of cytochrome P450 [CYP] 3A in the gut and liver. In view of the central role of CYP3A in the clearance of many different kinds of drugs, and the fact that many patients with COVID-19 are taking multiple drugs to treat other conditions, it is important to assess the potential for drug interactions when nirmatrelvir/r is given, and to minimize the risks associated with such interactions.

METHODS

We defined the interaction profile of ritonavir on the basis of information derived from two databases (Medline, GoogleScholar), three standard electronic texts on drug interactions, and manufacturer-supplied drug information. We compiled a list of drugs and their potentially relevant interactions, developed a risk min - imization algorithm, and applied it to the substances in question. We also compiled a list of commonly prescribed drugs for which there is no risk of interaction with nirmatrelvir/r.

RESULTS

Out of 190 drugs and drug combinations, 57 do not need any special measures when given in combination with brief, low-dose ritonavir treatment, while 15 require dose modification or a therapeutic alternative, 8 can be temporarily discontinued, 9 contraindicate ritonavir use, and 102 should preferably be combined with a different treatment.

CONCLUSION

We have proposed measures that are simple to carry out for the main types of drug that can interact with ritonavir. These measures can be implemented under quarantine conditions before starting a 5-day treatment with nirmatrelvir/r.

Trends in the Prevalence of Cardiometabolic Multimorbidity in the United States, 1999-2018

Cardiometabolic multimorbidity (co-existence of ≥1 cardiometabolic diseases) is increasingly common, while its prevalence in the U.S. is unknown. We utilized data from 10 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) two-year cycles in U.S. adults from 1999 to 2018. We reported the age-standardized prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity in 2017-2018 and analyzed their trends during 1999-2018 with joinpoint regression models. Stratified analyses were performed according to gender, age, and race/ethnicity. In 2017-2018, the prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity was 14.4% in the U.S., and it was higher among male, older, and non-Hispanic Black people. The three most common patterns were hypertension and diabetes (7.5%); hypertension, diabetes, and CHD (2.2%); and hypertension and CHD (1.8%). During 1999-2018, the prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity in U.S. adults increased significantly, with an averaged two-year cycle percentage change (AAPC) of 3.6 (95% CI: 2.1 to 5.3). The increasing trend was significant for both genders, most age groups except for 60-79 years, and non-Hispanic White people. For common patterns, the trend was increasing for hypertension and diabetes and hypertension, diabetes, and CHD, while it was decreasing for hypertension and CHD. Our findings provide evidence that cardiometabolic multimorbidity has risen as an austere issue of public health in the U.S.

The association between a lifestyle score, socioeconomic status, and COVID-19 outcomes within the UK Biobank cohort

BACKGROUND

Infection with SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19) impacts disadvantaged groups most. Lifestyle factors are also associated with adverse COVID-19 outcomes. To inform COVID-19 policy and interventions, we explored effect modification of socioeconomic-status (SES) on associations between lifestyle and COVID-19 outcomes.

METHODS

Using data from UK-Biobank, a large prospective cohort of 502,536 participants aged 37-73 years recruited between 2006 and 2010, we assigned participants a lifestyle score comprising nine factors. Poisson regression models with penalised splines were used to analyse associations between lifestyle score, deprivation (Townsend), and COVID-19 mortality and severe COVID-19. Associations between each exposure and outcome were examined independently before participants were dichotomised by deprivation to examine exposures jointly. Models were adjusted for sociodemographic/health factors.

RESULTS

Of 343,850 participants (mean age > 60 years) with complete data, 707 (0.21%) died from COVID-19 and 2506 (0.76%) had severe COVID-19. There was evidence of a nonlinear association between lifestyle score and COVID-19 mortality but limited evidence for nonlinearity between lifestyle score and severe COVID-19 and between deprivation and COVID-19 outcomes. Compared with low deprivation, participants in the high deprivation group had higher risk of COVID-19 outcomes across the lifestyle score. There was evidence for an additive interaction between lifestyle score and deprivation. Compared with participants with the healthiest lifestyle score in the low deprivation group, COVID-19 mortality risk ratios (95% CIs) for those with less healthy scores in low versus high deprivation groups were 5.09 (1.39-25.20) and 9.60 (4.70-21.44), respectively. Equivalent figures for severe COVID-19 were 5.17 (2.46-12.01) and 6.02 (4.72-7.71). Alternative SES measures produced similar results.

CONCLUSIONS

Unhealthy lifestyles are associated with higher risk of adverse COVID-19, but risks are highest in the most disadvantaged, suggesting an additive influence between SES and lifestyle. COVID-19 policy and interventions should consider both lifestyle and SES. The greatest public health benefit from lifestyle focussed COVID-19 policy and interventions is likely to be seen when greatest support for healthy living is provided to the most disadvantaged groups.

Predictors of Covid-19 level of concern among older adults from the health and retirement study

The purpose of this longitudinal study is to construct a prediction model for Covid-19 level of concern using established Covid-19 socio-demographic, lifestyle and health risk characteristics and to examine specific contributions of obesity-related cardiometabolic health characteristics as predictors of Covid-19 level of concern among a representative sample of U.S. older adults. We performed secondary analyses of existing data on 2872 2006–2020 Health and Retirement Study participants and examined 19 characteristics in relation to the outcome of interest using logistic regression and machine learning algorithms. In mixed-effects ordinal logistic regression models, a history of diabetes, stroke as well as 1–2 cardiometabolic risk factors and/or chronic conditions were associated with greater Covid-19 level of concern, after controlling for confounders. Female sex, birth cohort, minority race, Hispanic ethnicity and total wealth as well as depressive symptoms were associated with higher level of Covid-19 concern, and education was associated with lower level of Covid-19 concern in fully adjusted mixed-effects ordinal logistic regression models. The selected socio-demographic, lifestyle and health characteristics accounted for < 70% of the variability in Covid-19 level of concern based on machine learning algorithms. Independent risk factors for Covid-19 level of concern among U.S. older adults include socio-demographic characteristics and depressive symptoms. Advanced research is needed to identify relevant predictors and elucidate underlying mechanisms of observed relationships.

Exploring the associations between polypharmacy and COVID-19-related hospitalisations and deaths: a population-based cohort study among older adults in Quebec, Canada

OBJECTIVES

To study the association between polypharmacy and the risk of hospitalisation and death in cases of COVID-19 in the population over the age of 65.

DESIGN

Population-based cohort study.

SETTING

Quebec Integrated Chronic Disease Surveillance System, composed of five medico-administrative databases, in the province of Quebec, Canada.

PARTICIPANTS

32 476 COVID-19 cases aged over 65 whose diagnosis was made between 23 February 2020 and 15 March 2021, and who were covered by the public drug insurance plan (thus excluding those living in long-term care). We counted the number of different medications they claimed between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Robust Poisson regression was used to calculate relative risk of hospitalisation and death associated with the use of multiple medications, adjusting for age, sex, chronic conditions, material and social deprivation and living environment.

RESULTS

Of the 32 476 COVID-19 cases included, 10 350 (32%) were hospitalised and 4146 (13%) died. Compared with 0-4 medications, polypharmacy exposure was associated with increased hospitalisations, with relative risks ranging from 1.11 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.19) for those using 5-9 medications to 1.62 (95% CI 1.51 to 1.75) for those using 20+. Similarly, the risk of death increased with the number of medications, from 1.13 (95% CI 0.99 to 1.30) for those using (5-9 medications to 1.97 (95% CI 1.70 to 2.27) (20+). Increased risk was mainly observed in younger groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Polypharmacy was significantly associated with the risk of hospitalisations and deaths related to COVID-19 in this cohort of older adults. Polypharmacy may represent a marker of vulnerability, especially for younger groups of older adults.

Factors Associated with Severe COVID-19 and Post-Acute COVID-19 Syndrome in a Cohort of People Living with HIV on Antiretroviral Treatment and with Undetectable HIV RNA

SARS-CoV-2 can produce both severe clinical conditions and long-term sequelae, but data describing post-acute COVID-19 syndrome (PACS) are lacking for people living with HIV (PLWH). We aimed at assessing the prevalence and factors associated with severe COVID-19 and PACS in our cohort. We included all unvaccinated adult PLWH on antiretroviral treatment and plasma HIV-RNA < 40 cp/mL since at least six months before SARS-CoV-2 infection at the Infectious and Tropical Diseases Unit of Padua (Italy), from 20 February 2020 to 31 March 2021. COVID-19 severity was defined by WHO criteria; PACS was defined as the persistence of symptoms or development of sequelae beyond four weeks from SARS-CoV-2 infection. Demographic and clinical variables were collected, and data were analyzed by non-parametric tests. 123 subjects meeting the inclusion criteria among 1800 (6.8%) PLWH in care at the Infectious and Tropical diseases Unit in Padua were diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection/COVID-19 during the study period. The median age was 51 years (40−58), 79.7% were males, and 77.2% of Caucasian ethnicity. The median CD4+ T-cell count and length of HIV infection were 560 cells/mmc (444−780) and 11 years, respectively. Of the patients, 35.0% had asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, 48% developed mild COVID-19, 17.1% presented moderate or severe COVID-19 requiring hospitalization and 4.1% died. Polypharmacy was the single independent factor associated with severe COVID-19. As for PACS, among 75 patients who survived SARS-CoV-2 symptomatic infection, 20 (26.7%) reported PACS at a median follow-up of six months: asthenia (80.0%), shortness of breath (50.0%) and recurrent headache (25.0%) were the three most common complaints. Only the severity of the COVID-19 episode predicted PACS after adjusting for relevant demographic and clinical variables. In our study, PLWH with sustained viral suppression and good immunological response showed that the risk of hospital admission for COVID-19 was low, even though the severity of the disease was associated with high mortality. In addition, the likelihood of developing severe COVID-19 and PACS was mainly driven by similar risk factors to those faced by the general population, such as polypharmacy and the severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

COVID-19 pandemic impact on trajectories in cardiometabolic health, physical activity and functioning among adults from the 2006-2020 Health and Retirement Study

Background

The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on trajectories in cardiometabolic health, physical activity, and functioning among U.S. older adults, overall and according to selected baseline sociodemographic characteristics.

Methods

We performed secondary analyses using longitudinal data on 1,372 participants from the 2006–2020 Health and Retirement Study. Pre-post COVID-19 pandemic onset was examined in relation to body mass index (BMI), number of cardiometabolic risk factors and/or chronic conditions, physical activity, Activities of Daily Living (ADL), and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL) using mixed-effects regression models and group-based trajectory models.

Results

The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with significantly increased BMI (β = 1.39, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.74, 2.03). Furthermore, the odds of having at least one cardiometabolic risk factor and/or chronic disease increased pre-post COVID-19 onset (odds ratio 1.16, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.36), whereas physical functioning worsened pre-post COVID-19 onset (ADL: β = 1.11, 95% CI: 0.94, 1.28; IADL: β = 0.59, 95% CI: 0.46, 0.73). The pre-post COVID-19 period (2018–2020) showed a stable group of trajectories, with low, medium and high levels of the selected health indicators. Health disparities according to sex, race/ethnicity, educational level, work status, and total wealth are highlighted.

Conclusions

The COVID-19 pandemic onset appears to worsen cardiometabolic health and physical functioning among U.S. older adults, with clusters of individuals defined by selected sociodemographic characteristics experiencing distinct trajectories pre-post COVID-19 pandemic onset.

COVID-19-Related Mortality Risk in People With Severe Mental Illness: A Systematic and Critical Review

Background: Increasing clinical evidence suggests that people with severe mental illness (SMI), including schizophrenia spectrum disorders, bipolar disorder (BD), and major depressive disorder (MDD), are at higher risk of dying from COVID-19. Several systematic reviews examining the association between psychiatric disorders and COVID-19-related mortality have recently been published. Although these reviews have been conducted thoroughly, certain methodological limitations may hinder the accuracy of their research findings. Methods: A systematic literature search, using the PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Scopus databases (from inception to July 23, 2021), was conducted for observational studies assessing the risk of death associated with COVID-19 infection in adult patients with pre-existing schizophrenia spectrum disorders, BD, or MDD. Methodological quality of the included studies was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). Results: Of 1,446 records screened, 13 articles investigating the rates of death in patients with pre-existing SMI were included in this systematic review. Quality assessment scores of the included studies ranged from moderate to high. Most results seem to indicate that patients with SMI, particularly patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders, are at significantly higher risk of COVID-19-related mortality, as compared to patients without SMI. However, the extent of the variation in COVID-19-related mortality rates between studies including people with schizophrenia spectrum disorders was large because of a low level of precision of the estimated mortality outcome(s) in certain studies. Most studies on MDD and BD did not include specific information on the mood state or disease severity of patients. Due to a lack of data, it remains unknown to what extent patients with BD are at increased risk of COVID-19-related mortality. A variety of factors are likely to contribute to the increased mortality risk of COVID-19 in these patients. These include male sex, older age, somatic comorbidities (particularly cardiovascular diseases), as well as disease-specific characteristics. Conclusion: Methodological limitations hamper the accuracy of COVID-19-related mortality estimates for the main categories of SMIs. Nevertheless, evidence suggests that SMI is associated with excess COVID-19 mortality. Policy makers therefore must consider these vulnerable individuals as a high-risk group that should be given particular attention. This means that targeted interventions to maximize vaccination uptake among these patients are required to address the higher burden of COVID-19 infection in this already disadvantaged group.

Association between multimorbidity, intensive care unit admission, and death in patients with COVID-19 in Brazil: a cross-section study, 2020

BACKGROUND

Multimorbidity can influence intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and deaths due to coronavirus disease (COVID-19).

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the association between multimorbidity, ICU admissions, and deaths due to COVID-19 in Brazil.

DESIGN AND SETTING

This cross-sectional study was conducted using data from patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) due to COVID-19 recorded in the Influenza Epidemiological Surveillance Information System (SIVEP-Gripe) in 2020.

METHODS

Descriptive and stratified analyses of multimorbidity were performed based on sociodemographic, ventilatory support, and diagnostic variables. Poisson regression was used to estimate the prevalence ratios.

RESULTS

We identified 671,593 cases of SARS caused by COVID-19, of which 62.4% had at least one morbidity. Multimorbidity was associated with male sex, age 60-70 and ≥ 80 years, brown and black skin color, elementary education and high school, ventilatory support, and altered radiologic exams. Moreover, all regions of the country and altered computed tomography due to COVID-19 or other diseases were associated with death; only the northeast region and higher education were associated with ICU admission.

CONCLUSION

Our results showed an association between multimorbidity, ICU admission, and death in COVID-19 patients in Brazil.