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Palmeiro-Silva Y, Aravena-Contreras R, Izcue Gana J, González Tapia R, Kelman I. Climate-related health impact indicators for public health surveillance in a changing climate: a systematic review and local suitability analysis. LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. AMERICAS 2024; 38:100854. [PMID: 39171197 PMCID: PMC11334688 DOI: 10.1016/j.lana.2024.100854] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2024] [Revised: 07/18/2024] [Accepted: 07/19/2024] [Indexed: 08/23/2024]
Abstract
Climate change challenges public health. Effective management of climate-related health risks relies on robust public health surveillance (PHS) and population health indicators. Despite existing global and country-specific indicators, their integration into local PHS systems is limited, impacting decision-making. We conducted a systematic review examining population health indicators relevant to climate change impacts and their suitability for national PHS systems. Guided by a registered protocol, we searched multiple databases and included 41 articles. Of these, 35 reported morbidity indicators, and 39 reported mortality indicators. Using Chile as a case study, we identified three sets of indicators for the Chilean PHS. The high-priority set included vector-, food-, and water-borne diseases, as well as temperature-related health outcomes indicators due to their easy integration into existing PHS systems. This review highlights the importance of population health indicators in monitoring climate-related health impacts, emphasising the need for local contextual factors to guide indicator selection. Funding This research project was partly funded by ANID Chile and University College London. None of these sources had any involvement in the research conceptualisation, design, or interpretation of the results.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - José Izcue Gana
- Institute for Global Prosperity, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | | | - Ilan Kelman
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom
- Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, United Kingdom
- University of Agder, Norway
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Li XC, Qian HR, Zhang YY, Zhang QY, Liu JS, Lai HY, Zheng WG, Sun J, Fu B, Zhou XN, Zhang XX. Optimal decision-making in relieving global high temperature-related disease burden by data-driven simulation. Infect Dis Model 2024; 9:618-633. [PMID: 38645696 PMCID: PMC11026972 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2024.03.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2023] [Revised: 02/27/2024] [Accepted: 03/09/2024] [Indexed: 04/23/2024] Open
Abstract
The rapid acceleration of global warming has led to an increased burden of high temperature-related diseases (HTDs), highlighting the need for advanced evidence-based management strategies. We have developed a conceptual framework aimed at alleviating the global burden of HTDs, grounded in the One Health concept. This framework refines the impact pathway and establishes systematic data-driven models to inform the adoption of evidence-based decision-making, tailored to distinct contexts. We collected extensive national-level data from authoritative public databases for the years 2010-2019. The burdens of five categories of disease causes - cardiovascular diseases, infectious respiratory diseases, injuries, metabolic diseases, and non-infectious respiratory diseases - were designated as intermediate outcome variables. The cumulative burden of these five categories, referred to as the total HTD burden, was the final outcome variable. We evaluated the predictive performance of eight models and subsequently introduced twelve intervention measures, allowing us to explore optimal decision-making strategies and assess their corresponding contributions. Our model selection results demonstrated the superior performance of the Graph Neural Network (GNN) model across various metrics. Utilizing simulations driven by the GNN model, we identified a set of optimal intervention strategies for reducing disease burden, specifically tailored to the seven major regions: East Asia and Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, Middle East and North Africa, North America, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Sectoral mitigation and adaptation measures, acting upon our categories of Infrastructure & Community, Ecosystem Resilience, and Health System Capacity, exhibited particularly strong performance for various regions and diseases. Seven out of twelve interventions were included in the optimal intervention package for each region, including raising low-carbon energy use, increasing energy intensity, improving livestock feed, expanding basic health care delivery coverage, enhancing health financing, addressing air pollution, and improving road infrastructure. The outcome of this study is a global decision-making tool, offering a systematic methodology for policymakers to develop targeted intervention strategies to address the increasingly severe challenge of HTDs in the context of global warming.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xin-Chen Li
- School of Global Health, Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
- Institute of One Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
- School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
| | - Hao-Ran Qian
- School of Data Science, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
| | - Yan-Yan Zhang
- School of Global Health, Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
- Institute of One Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
- School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
| | - Qi-Yu Zhang
- School of Global Health, Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
- Institute of One Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
- School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
| | - Jing-Shu Liu
- School of Global Health, Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
- Institute of One Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
- School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
| | - Hong-Yu Lai
- School of Data Science, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
| | - Wei-Guo Zheng
- School of Data Science, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
| | - Jian Sun
- School of Data Science, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
| | - Bo Fu
- School of Data Science, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
| | - Xiao-Nong Zhou
- School of Global Health, Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
- Institute of One Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
- School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
| | - Xiao-Xi Zhang
- School of Global Health, Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
- Institute of One Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
- School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
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Li A, Toll M, Bentley R. Mapping social vulnerability indicators to understand the health impacts of climate change: a scoping review. Lancet Planet Health 2023; 7:e925-e937. [PMID: 37940212 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(23)00216-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/21/2023] [Revised: 09/14/2023] [Accepted: 09/14/2023] [Indexed: 11/10/2023]
Abstract
The need to assess and measure how social vulnerability influences the health impacts of climate change has resulted in a rapidly growing body of research literature. To date, there has been no overarching, systematic examination of where this evidence is concentrated and what inferences can be made. This scoping review provides an overview of studies published between 2012 and 2022 on social vulnerability to the negative health effects of climate change. Of the 2115 studies identified from four bibliographic databases (Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed, and CAB Direct), 230 that considered indicators of social vulnerability to climate change impacts on health outcomes were selected for review. Frequency and thematic analyses were conducted to establish the scope of the social vulnerability indicators, climate change impacts, and health conditions studied, and the substantive themes and findings of this research. 113 indicators of social vulnerability covering 15 themes were identified, with a small set of indicators receiving most of the research attention, including age, sex, ethnicity, education, income, poverty, unemployment, access to green and blue spaces, access to health services, social isolation, and population density. The results reveal an undertheorisation and few indicators that conceptualise and operationalise social vulnerability beyond individual sociodemographic characteristics by identifying structural and institutional dimensions of vulnerability, and a preponderance of social vulnerability research in high-income countries. This Review highlights the need for future research, data infrastructure, and policy attention to address structural, institutional, and sociopolitical conditions, which will better support climate resilience and adaptation planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ang Li
- NHMRC Centre of Research Excellence in Healthy Housing, Centre for Health Policy, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
| | - Mathew Toll
- NHMRC Centre of Research Excellence in Healthy Housing, Centre for Health Policy, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Rebecca Bentley
- NHMRC Centre of Research Excellence in Healthy Housing, Centre for Health Policy, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
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Hess JJ, Sheehan TJ, Miller A, Cunningham R, Errett NA, Isaksen TB, Vogel J, Ebi KL. A novel climate and health decision support platform: Approach, outputs, and policy considerations. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2023; 234:116530. [PMID: 37394172 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.116530] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2023] [Revised: 06/14/2023] [Accepted: 06/29/2023] [Indexed: 07/04/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The adverse health impacts of climate change are increasingly apparent and the need for adaptation activities is pressing. Risks, drivers, and decision contexts vary significantly by location, and high-resolution, place-based information is needed to support decision analysis and risk reduction efforts at scale. METHODS Using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) risk framework, we developed a causal pathway linking heat with a composite outcome of heat-related morbidity and mortality. We used an existing systematic literature review to identify variables for inclusion and the authors' expert judgment to determine variable combinations in a hierarchical model. We parameterized the model for Washington state using observational (1991-2020 and June 2021 extreme heat event) and scenario-driven temperature projections (2036-2065), compared outputs against relevant existing indices, and analyzed sensitivity to model structure and variable parameterization. We used descriptive statistics, maps, visualizations and correlation analyses to present results. RESULTS The Climate and Health Risk Tool (CHaRT) heat risk model contains 25 primary hazard, exposure, and vulnerability variables and multiple levels of variable combinations. The model estimates population-weighted and unweighted heat health risk for selected periods and displays estimates on an online visualization platform. Population-weighted risk is historically moderate and primarily limited by hazard, increasing significantly during extreme heat events. Unweighted risk is helpful in identifying lower population areas that have high vulnerability and hazard. Model vulnerability correlate well with existing vulnerability and environmental justice indices. DISCUSSION The tool provides location-specific insights into risk drivers and prioritization of risk reduction interventions including population-specific behavioral interventions and built environment modifications. Insights from causal pathways linking climate-sensitive hazards and adverse health impacts can be used to generate hazard-specific models to support adaptation planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeremy J Hess
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Science, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Global Health, Schools of Medicine and Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
| | - Timothy J Sheehan
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Science, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Alyssa Miller
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Science, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Nicole A Errett
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Science, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Tania Busch Isaksen
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Science, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Jason Vogel
- Climate Impacts Group, College of the Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Kristie L Ebi
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Science, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Global Health, Schools of Medicine and Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
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