Long-term changes in populations of rainforest birds in the Australia Wet Tropics bioregion: A climate-driven biodiversity emergency

Significant shifts in latitudinal optima of North American birds

Changes in climate can alter environmental conditions faster than most species can adapt. A prediction under a warming climate is that species will shift their distributions poleward through time. While many studies focus on range shifts, latitudinal shifts in species' optima can occur without detectable changes in their range. We quantified shifts in latitudinal optima for 209 North American bird species over the last 55 y. The latitudinal optimum (m) for each species in each year was estimated using a bespoke flexible non-linear zero-inflated model of abundance vs. latitude, and the annual shift in m through time was quantified. One-third (70) of the bird species showed a significant shift in their optimum. Overall, mean peak abundances of North American birds have shifted northward, on average, at a rate of 1.5 km per year (±0.58 SE), corresponding to a total distance moved of 82.5 km (±31.9 SE) over the last 55 y. Stronger poleward shifts at the continental scale were linked to key species' traits, including thermal optimum, habitat specialization, and territoriality. Shifts in the western region were larger and less variable than in the eastern region, and they were linked to species' thermal optimum, habitat density preference, and habitat specialization. Individual species' latitudinal shifts were most strongly linked to their estimated thermal optimum, clearly indicating a climate-driven response. Displacement of species from their historically optimal realized niches can have dramatic ecological consequences. Effective conservation must consider within-range abundance shifts. Areas currently deemed "optimal" are unlikely to remain so.

Loss of terrestrial biodiversity in Australia: Magnitude, causation, and response

Australia's biota is species rich, with high rates of endemism. This natural legacy has rapidly diminished since European colonization. The impacts of invasive species, habitat loss, altered fire regimes, and changed water flows are now compounded by climate change, particularly through extreme drought, heat, wildfire, and flooding. Extinction rates, already far exceeding the global average for mammals, are predicted to escalate across all taxa, and ecosystems are collapsing. These losses are symptomatic of shortcomings in resourcing, law, policy, and management. Informed by examples of advances in conservation practice from invasive species control, Indigenous land management, and citizen science, we describe interventions needed to enhance future resilience. Many characteristics of Australian biodiversity loss are globally relevant, with recovery requiring society to reframe its relationship with the environment.

Estimating density of forest bats and their long-term trends in a climate refuge

For many species, estimating density is challenging, but it is important for conservation planning and understanding the functional role of species. Bats play key ecological roles, yet little is known about their free-ranging density. We used a long-term banding study of four species caught in an extensively forested climate refuge and spatial capture-recapture models (SCR) to estimate density and its change over time. Between 1999 and 2020, there were 3671 captures of four bat species, which were all edge-space foragers. Recaptures represented 16% (n = 587) of all captures, of which 89 were between-trap-cluster movements. Closed spatial mark-recapture models estimated plausible densities that varied with elevation. Preferred elevations differed between species, with density averaging 0.63 ha-1 for Vespadelus darlingtoni (high elevation), 0.43 ha-1 for V. pumilus (low elevation), 0.19 ha-1 for Chalinolobus morio (high elevation), and 0.08 ha-1 for V. regulus (high elevation). Overall, densities were higher than most previous published estimates for bats. Forest disturbance history (past timber harvesting) had no detectable effect on density. Density also varied substantially across years, and although annual maximum temperature and rainfall were not supported in models, some time periods showed an apparent relationship between density and annual rainfall (+ve) and/or annual maximum temperature (-ve). The most notable change was an increase in the density of V. pumilus after 2013, which tracked an increase in annual temperature at the site, reflecting a warming climate. Bat densities in forests outside of climate refugia are likely to be more sensitive to climate change, but more studies are needed in different habitats and continents and outside climate refugia to place the densities we estimated into a broader context.

Physiologically vulnerable or resilient? Tropical birds, global warming, and redistributions

Tropical species are considered to be more threatened by climate change than those of other world regions. This increased sensitivity to warming is thought to stem from the assumptions of low physiological capacity to withstand temperature fluctuations and already living near their limits of heat tolerance under current climatic conditions. For birds, despite thorough documentation of community-level rearrangements, such as biotic attrition and elevational shifts, there is no consistent evidence of direct physiological sensitivity to warming. In this review, we provide an integrative outlook into the physiological response of tropical birds to thermal variation and their capacity to cope with warming. In short, evidence from the literature suggests that the assumed physiological sensitivity to warming attributed to tropical biotas does not seem to be a fundamental characteristic of tropical birds. Tropical birds do possess the physiological capacities to deal with fluctuating temperatures, including high-elevation species, and are prepared to withstand elevated levels of heat, even those living in hot and arid environments. However, there are still many unaddressed points that hinder a more complete understanding of the response of tropical birds to warming, such as cooling capacities when exposed to combined gradients of heat and humidity, the response of montane species to heat, and thermoregulation under increased levels of microclimatic stress in disturbed ecosystems. Further research into how populations and species from different ecological contexts handle warming will increase our understanding of current and future community rearrangements in tropical birds.

The climatic drivers of long-term population changes in rainforest montane birds

Climate-driven biodiversity erosion is escalating at an alarming rate. The pressure imposed by climate change is exceptionally high in tropical ecosystems, where species adapted to narrow environmental ranges exhibit strong physiological constraints. Despite the observed detrimental effect of climate change on ecosystems at a global scale, our understanding of the extent to which multiple climatic drivers affect population dynamics is limited. Here, we disentangle the impact of different climatic stressors on 47 rainforest birds inhabiting the mountains of the Australian Wet Tropics using hierarchical population models. We estimate the effect of spatiotemporal changes in temperature, precipitation, heatwaves, droughts and cyclones on the population dynamics of rainforest birds between 2000 and 2016. We find a strong effect of warming and changes in rainfall patterns across the elevational-segregated bird communities, with lowland populations benefiting from increasing temperature and precipitation, while upland species show an inverse strong negative response to the same drivers. Additionally, we find a negative effect of heatwaves on lowland populations, a pattern associated with the observed distribution of these extreme events across elevations. In contrast, cyclones and droughts have a marginal effect on spatiotemporal changes in rainforest bird communities, suggesting a species-specific response unrelated to the elevational gradient. This study demonstrated the importance of unravelling the drivers of climate change impacts on population changes, providing significant insight into the mechanisms accelerating climate-induced biodiversity degradation.