Supervised sequential pattern mining of event sequences in sport to identify important patterns of play: An application to rugby union

Identification of pattern mining algorithm for rugby league players positional groups separation based on movement patterns

The application of pattern mining algorithms to extract movement patterns from sports big data can improve training specificity by facilitating a more granular evaluation of movement. Since movement patterns can only occur as consecutive, non-consecutive, or non-sequential, this study aimed to identify the best set of movement patterns for player movement profiling in professional rugby league and quantify the similarity among distinct movement patterns. Three pattern mining algorithms (l-length Closed Contiguous [LCCspm], Longest Common Subsequence [LCS] and AprioriClose) were used to extract patterns to profile elite rugby football league hookers (n = 22 players) and wingers (n = 28 players) match-games movements across 319 matches. Jaccard similarity score was used to quantify the similarity between algorithms' movement patterns and machine learning classification modelling identified the best algorithm's movement patterns to separate playing positions. LCCspm and LCS movement patterns shared a 0.19 Jaccard similarity score. AprioriClose movement patterns shared no significant Jaccard similarity with LCCspm (0.008) and LCS (0.009) patterns. The closed contiguous movement patterns profiled by LCCspm best-separated players into playing positions. Multi-layered Perceptron classification algorithm achieved the highest accuracy of 91.02% and precision, recall and F1 scores of 0.91 respectively. Therefore, we recommend the extraction of closed contiguous (consecutive) over non-consecutive and non-sequential movement patterns for separating groups of players.

Efficient model selection for predictive pattern mining model by safe pattern pruning

Predictive pattern mining is an approach used to construct prediction models when the input is represented by structured data, such as sets, graphs, and sequences. The main idea behind predictive pattern mining is to build a prediction model by considering unified inconsistent notation sub-structures, such as subsets, subgraphs, and subsequences (referred to as patterns), present in the structured data as features of the model. The primary challenge in predictive pattern mining lies in the exponential growth of the number of patterns with the complexity of the structured data. In this study, we propose the safe pattern pruning method to address the explosion of pattern numbers in predictive pattern mining. We also discuss how it can be effectively employed throughout the entire model building process in practical data analysis. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, we conduct numerical experiments on regression and classification problems involving sets, graphs, and sequences.

Development of an expected possession value model to analyse team attacking performances in rugby league

This study aimed to evaluate team attacking performances in rugby league via expected possession value (EPV) models. Location data from 59,233 plays in 180 Super League matches across the 2019 Super League season were used. Six EPV models were generated using arbitrary zone sizes (EPV-308 and EPV-77) or aggregated according to the total zone value generated during a match (EPV-37, EPV-19, EPV-13 and EPV-9). Attacking sets were considered as Markov Chains, allowing the value of each zone visited to be estimated based on the outcome of the possession. The Kullback-Leibler Divergence was used to evaluate the reproducibility of the value generated from each zone (the reward distribution) by teams between matches. Decreasing the number of zones improved the reproducibility of reward distributions between matches but reduced the variation in zone values. After six previous matches, the subsequent match's zones had been visited on 95% or more occasions for EPV-19 (95±4%), EPV-13 (100±0%) and EPV-9 (100±0%). The KL Divergence values were infinity (EPV-308), 0.52±0.05 (EPV-77), 0.37±0.03 (EPV-37), 0.20±0.02 (EPV-19), 0.13±0.02 (EPV-13) and 0.10±0.02 (EPV-9). This study supports the use of EPV-19 and EPV-13, but not EPV-9 (too little variation in zone values), to evaluate team attacking performance in rugby league.