Ecosystem Interactions Underlie the Spread of Avian Influenza A Viruses with Pandemic Potential

Epidemiology, biosafety, and biosecurity of Avian Influenza: Insights from the East Mediterranean region

The World Organization for Animal Health defines Avian Influenza Virus as a highly infectious disease caused by diverse subtypes that continue to evolve rapidly, impacting poultry species, pet birds, wild birds, non-human mammals, and occasionally humans. The effects of Avian influenza viruses have been recognised as a precursor for serious health concerns among affected birds, poultry, and human populations in the Middle East. Furthermore, low and high pathogenic avian influenza viruses lead to respiratory illness with varying severity, depending on the virus subtype (e.g., H5, H7, H9, etc.). Possible future outbreaks and endemics of newly emerging subtypes are expected to occur, as many studies have reported the emergence of novel mutations and viral subtypes. However, proper surveillance programs and biosecurity applications should be developed, and countries with incapacitated defences against such outbreaks should be encouraged to undergo complete reinstation and reinforcement in their health and research sectors. Public education regarding biosafety and virus prevention is necessary to ensure minimal spread of avian influenza endemic.

Phylogeographic Dynamics of H9N2 Avian Influenza Viruses in Tunisia

Avian influenza virus subtype H9N2 is endemic in commercial poultry in Tunisia. This subtype affects poultry and wild birds in Tunisia and poses a potential zoonotic risk. Tunisian H9N2 strains carry, in their hemagglutinins, the human-like marker 226 L that is most influential in avian-to-human viral transmission. For a better understanding of how ecological aspects of the H9N2 virus and its circulation in poultry, migratory birds and environment shapes the spread of the dissemination of H9N2 in Tunisia, herein, we investigate the epidemiological, evolutionary and zoonotic potential of seven H9N2 poultry isolates and sequence their whole genome. Phylogeographic and phylodymanic analysis were used to examine viral spread within and among wild birds, poultry and environment at geographical scales. Genetic evolution results showed that the eight gene sequences of Tunisian H9N2 AIV were characterized by molecular markers involved with virulence and mammalian infections. The geographical distribution of avian influenza virus appears as a network interconnecting countries in Europe, Asia, North Africa and West Africa. The spatiotemporal dynamics analysis showed that the H9N2 virus was transmitted from Tunisia to neighboring countries notably Libya and Algeria. Interestingly, this study also revealed, for the first time, that there was a virus transmission between Tunisia and Morocco. Bayesian analysis showed exchanges between H9N2 strains of Tunisia and those of the Middle Eastern countries, analysis of host traits showed that duck, wild birds and environment were ancestry related to chicken. The subtypes phylodynamic showed that PB1 segment was under multiple inter-subtype reassortment events with H10N7, H12N5, H5N2 and H6N1 and that PB2 was also a subject of inter-subtype reassortment with H10N4.

Phylodynamic approaches to studying avian influenza virus

Avian influenza viruses can cause severe disease in domestic and wild birds and are a pandemic threat. Phylodynamics is the study of how epidemiological, evolutionary, and immunological processes can interact to shape viral phylogenies. This review summarizes how phylodynamic methods have and could contribute to the study of avian influenza viruses. Specifically, we assess how phylodynamics can be used to examine viral spread within and between wild or domestic bird populations at various geographical scales, identify factors associated with virus dispersal, and determine the order and timing of virus lineage movement between geographic regions or poultry production systems. We discuss factors that can complicate the interpretation of phylodynamic results and identify how future methodological developments could contribute to improved control of the virus.

Emerging and Novel Viruses in Passerine Birds

There is growing interest in emerging viruses that can cause serious or lethal disease in humans and animals. The proliferation of cloacal virome studies, mainly focused on poultry and other domestic birds, reveals a wide variety of viruses, although their pathogenic significance is currently uncertain. Analysis of viruses detected in wild birds is complex and often biased towards waterfowl because of the obvious interest in avian influenza or other zoonotic viruses. Less is known about the viruses present in the order Passeriformes, which comprises approximately 60% of extant bird species. This review aims to compile the most significant contributions on the DNA/RNA viruses affecting passerines, from traditional and metagenomic studies. It highlights that most passerine species have never been sampled. Especially the RNA viruses from Flaviviridae, Orthomyxoviridae and Togaviridae are considered emerging because of increased incidence or avian mortality/morbidity, spread to new geographical areas or hosts and their zoonotic risk. Arguably poxvirus, and perhaps other virus groups, could also be considered "emerging viruses". However, many of these viruses have only recently been described in passerines using metagenomics and their role in the ecosystem is unknown. Finally, it is noteworthy that only one third of the viruses affecting passerines have been officially recognized.

Ecogeographic Drivers of the Spatial Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreaks in Europe and the United States, 2016-Early 2022

H5Nx highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of clade 2.3.4.4 have caused outbreaks in Europe among wild and domestic birds since 2016 and were introduced to North America via wild migratory birds in December 2021. We examined the spatiotemporal extent of HPAI viruses across continents and characterized ecological and environmental predictors of virus spread between geographic regions by constructing a Bayesian phylodynamic generalized linear model (phylodynamic-GLM). The findings demonstrate localized epidemics of H5Nx throughout Europe in the first several years of the epizootic, followed by a singular branching point where H5N1 viruses were introduced to North America, likely via stopover locations throughout the North Atlantic. Once in the United States (US), H5Nx viruses spread at a greater rate between US-based regions as compared to prior spread in Europe. We established that geographic proximity is a predictor of virus spread between regions, implying that intercontinental transport across the Atlantic Ocean is relatively rare. An increase in mean ambient temperature over time was predictive of reduced H5Nx virus spread, which may reflect the effect of climate change on declines in host species abundance, decreased persistence of the virus in the environment, or changes in migratory patterns due to ecological alterations. Our data provide new knowledge about the spread and directionality of H5Nx virus dispersal in Europe and the US during an actively evolving intercontinental outbreak, including predictors of virus movement between regions, which will contribute to surveillance and mitigation strategies as the outbreak unfolds, and in future instances of uncontained avian spread of HPAI viruses.

Pathways for avian influenza virus spread: GPS reveals wild waterfowl in commercial livestock facilities and connectivity with the natural wetland landscape

Zoonotic diseases are of considerable concern to the human population and viruses such as avian influenza (AIV) threaten food security, wildlife conservation and human health. Wild waterfowl and the natural wetlands they use are known AIV reservoirs, with birds capable of virus transmission to domestic poultry populations. While infection risk models have linked migration routes and AIV outbreaks, there is a limited understanding of wild waterfowl presence on commercial livestock facilities, and movement patterns linked to natural wetlands. We documented 11 wild waterfowl (three Anatidae species) in or near eight commercial livestock facilities in Washington and California with GPS telemetry data. Wild ducks used dairy and beef cattle feed lots and facility retention ponds during both day and night suggesting use for roosting and foraging. Two individuals (single locations) were observed inside poultry facility boundaries while using nearby wetlands. Ducks demonstrated high site fidelity, returning to the same areas of habitats (at livestock facilities and nearby wetlands), across months or years, showed strong connectivity with surrounding wetlands, and arrived from wetlands up to 1251 km away in the week prior. Telemetry data provides substantial advantages over observational data, allowing assessment of individual movement behaviour and wetland connectivity that has significant implications for outbreak management. Telemetry improves our understanding of risk factors for waterfowl-livestock virus transmission and helps identify factors associated with coincident space use at the wild waterfowl-domestic livestock interface. Our research suggests that even relatively small or isolated natural and artificial water or food sources in/near facilities increases the likelihood of attracting waterfowl, which has important consequences for managers attempting to minimize or prevent AIV outbreaks. Use and interpretation of telemetry data, especially in near-real-time, could provide key information for reducing virus transmission risk between waterfowl and livestock, improving protective barriers between wild and domestic species, and abating outbreaks.

Role of wild birds in the spread of clade 2.3.4.4e H5N6 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus into South Korea and Japan

H5Nx highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs) have caused transboundary epizootics in poultry and wild birds. In 2016, the H5N6 subtype of clade 2.3.4.4e HPAIVs caused multiple outbreaks in Asia, including China, Japan, Korea, and Vietnam. However, the geographical spread pattern of 2.3.4.4e H5N6 HPAIV has not been clearly identified. To better understand the emergence and transmission history of 2.3.4.4e H5N6 HPAIV, we investigated the underlying epidemiologic processes associated with this viral spread by performing a Bayesian phylogeography analysis. The results revealed that wild waterfowl played a central role in the transboundary spread of clade 2.3.4.4e H5N6 HPAIV into both endemic and non-endemic countries, causing multiple incursions of the 2.3.4.4e H5N6 HPAIV into South Korea, Japan, and Vietnam. In our analysis, Guangdong province, China was estimated to be the most probable site where 2.3.4.4e H5N6 HPAIVs emerged prior to the transboundary transmissions. Continued genomic surveillance in both wild birds and poultry would be necessary for monitoring of HPAIV incursions. In addition, enhanced biosecurity would be key to preventing the HPAIV spread by minimizing contact between domestic poultry and wild birds.

Maintenance and dissemination of avian-origin influenza A virus within the northern Atlantic Flyway of North America

Wild waterbirds, the natural reservoirs for avian influenza viruses, undergo migratory movements each year, connecting breeding and wintering grounds within broad corridors known as flyways. In a continental or global view, the study of virus movements within and across flyways is important to understanding virus diversity, evolution, and movement. From 2015 to 2017, we sampled waterfowl from breeding (Maine) and wintering (Maryland) areas within the Atlantic Flyway (AF) along the east coast of North America to investigate the spatio-temporal trends in persistence and spread of influenza A viruses (IAV). We isolated 109 IAVs from 1,821 cloacal / oropharyngeal samples targeting mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) and American black ducks (Anas rubripes), two species having ecological and conservation importance in the flyway that are also host reservoirs of IAV. Isolates with >99% nucleotide similarity at all gene segments were found between eight pairs of birds in the northern site across years, indicating some degree of stability among genome constellations and the possibility of environmental persistence. No movement of whole genome constellations were identified between the two parts of the flyway, however, virus gene flow between the northern and southern study locations was evident. Examination of banding records indicate direct migratory waterfowl movements between the two locations within an annual season, providing a mechanism for the inferred viral gene flow. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses provided evidence for virus dissemination from other North American wild birds to AF dabbling ducks (Anatinae), shorebirds (Charidriformes), and poultry (Galliformes). Evidence was found for virus dissemination from shorebirds to gulls (Laridae), and dabbling ducks to shorebirds and poultry. The findings from this study contribute to the understanding of IAV ecology in waterfowl within the AF.

H5Nx Viruses Emerged during the Suppression of H5N1 Virus Populations in Poultry

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5 viruses have posed a substantial pandemic threat through repeated human infection since their emergence in China in 1996. Nationwide control measures, including vaccination of poultry, were implemented in 2005, leading to a sharp reduction in H5N1 virus outbreaks. In 2008, novel non-N1 subtype (H5Nx) viruses emerged, gradually replacing the dominant H5N1 subtype and causing global outbreaks. The cause of this major shift in the ecology of HPAI H5 viruses remains unknown. Here, we show that major H5N1 virus lineages underwent population bottlenecks in 2006, followed by a recovery in virus populations between 2007 and 2009. Our analyses indicate that control measures, not competition from H5Nx viruses, were responsible for the H5N1 decline, with an H5N1 lineage capable of infecting poultry and wild birds experiencing a less severe population bottleneck due to circulation in unaffected wild birds. We show that H5Nx viruses emerged during the successful suppression of H5N1 virus populations in poultry, providing an opportunity for antigenically distinct H5Nx viruses to propagate. Avian influenza vaccination programs would benefit from universal vaccines targeting a wider diversity of influenza viruses to prevent the emergence of novel subtypes.

IMPORTANCE A major shift in the ecology of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5 viruses occurred from 2008 to 2014, when viruses with non-N1 neuraminidase genes (termed H5Nx viruses) emerged and caused global H5 virus outbreaks. Here, we demonstrate that nationwide control measures, including vaccination in China, successfully suppressed H5N1 populations in poultry, providing an opportunity for antigenically distinct H5Nx viruses to emerge. In particular, we show that the widespread use of H5N1 vaccines likely conferred a fitness advantage to H5Nx viruses due to the antigenic mismatch of the neuraminidase genes. These results indicate that avian influenza vaccination programs would benefit from universal vaccines that target a wider diversity of influenza viruses to prevent potential emergence of novel subtypes.

Serologic Evidence of Occupational Exposure to Avian Influenza Viruses at the Wildfowl/Poultry/Human Interface

Ecological interactions between wild aquatic birds and outdoor-housed poultry can enhance spillover events of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) from wild reservoirs to domestic birds, thus increasing the related zoonotic risk to occupationally exposed workers. To assess serological evidence of AIV infection in workers operating in Northern Italy at the wildfowl/poultry interface or directly exposed to wildfowl, serum samples were collected between April 2005 and November 2006 from 57 bird-exposed workers (BEWs) and from 7 unexposed controls (Cs), planning three sample collections from each individual. Concurrently, AIV surveillance of 3587 reared birds identified 4 AIVs belonging to H10N7, H4N6 and H2N2 subtypes while serological analysis by hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay showed recent infections caused by H1, H2, H4, H6, H10, H11, H12, and H13 subtypes. Human sera were analyzed for specific antibodies against AIVs belonging to antigenic subtypes from H1 to H14 by using HI and virus microneutralization (MN) assays as a screening and a confirmatory test, respectively. Overall, antibodies specific to AIV-H3, AIV-H6, AIV-H8, and AIV-H9 were found in three poultry workers (PWs) and seropositivity to AIV-11, AIV-H13—still detectable in October 2017—in one wildlife professional (WP). Furthermore, seropositivity to AIV-H2, accounting for previous exposure to the “extinct” H2N2 human influenza viruses, was found in both BEWs and Cs groups. These data further emphasize the occupational risk posed by zoonotic AIV strains and show the possible occurrence of long-lived antibody-based immunity following AIV infections in humans.

Surveillance of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses (H5Nx Subtypes) in Wild Birds in Iran, 2014-2019

After the emergence of the highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIV) subtypes H5N6 in 2013 and H5N8 in 2014, a surveillance study using molecular epidemiology approaches was carried out during 2014 - 2019 in Iran to discover any potential introduction or outbreak of HPAIV in wild bird populations. All sick and dead wild birds found in nature, or in cases of an outbreak, a collection of representative samples was tested using the specific molecular methods for HPAIV H5 subtypes. Additionally, wild bird species in wetlands, several zoos, zoological gardens, or rehabilitation centers were tested for HPAIV. During the active surveillance plan, several individual and outbreak cases of HPAIV and orthoavulaviruses were identified. In general, more than 900 fecal materials, cloacal and oropharyngeal swabs, and/or tissue samples were collected from apparently healthy live birds representing several different species and families. In addition, tissue and swab samples were collected and investigated from any reported wild birds' mortality cases in different parts of Iran in the framework of this study. No positive bird was found among apparently healthy live birds; however, the highly pathogenic influenza viruses of H5N1, H5N2, H5N6, and H5N8 were found in individual dead birds or mass die-off cases.

Genetic Characterization of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N8) Virus in Pakistani Live Bird Markets Reveals Rapid Diversification of Clade 2.3.4.4b Viruses

The highly pathogenic (HPAI) avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses have undergone reassortment with multiple non-N1-subtype neuraminidase genes since 2008, leading to the emergence of H5Nx viruses. H5Nx viruses established themselves quickly in birds and disseminated from China to Africa, the Middle East, Europe and North America. Multiple genetic clades have successively evolved through frequent mutations and reassortment, posing a continuous threat to domestic poultry and causing substantial economic losses. Live bird markets are recognized as major sources of avian-to-human infection and for the emergence of zoonotic influenza. In Pakistan, the A(H5N1) virus was first reported in domestic birds in 2007; however, avian influenza surveillance is limited and there is a lack of knowledge on the evolution and transmission of the A(H5) virus in the country. We collected oropharyngeal swabs from domestic poultry and environmental samples from six different live bird markets during 2018–2019. We detected and sequenced HPAI A(H5N8) viruses from two chickens, one quail and one environmental sample in two markets. Temporal phylogenetics indicated that all novel HPAI A(H5N8) viruses belonged to clade 2.3.4.4b, with all eight genes of Pakistan A(H5N8) viruses most closely related to 2017 Saudi Arabia A(H5N8) viruses, which were likely introduced via cross-border transmission from neighboring regions approximately three months prior to virus detection into domestic poultry. Our data further revealed that clade 2.3.4.4b viruses underwent rapid lineage expansion in 2017 and acquired significant amino acid mutations, including mutations associated with increased haemagglutinin affinity to human α-2,6 receptors, prior to the first human A(H5N8) infection in Russian poultry workers in 2020. These results highlight the need for systematic avian influenza surveillance in live bird markets in Pakistan to monitor for potential A(H5Nx) variants that may arise from poultry populations.

Reassortment and Persistence of Influenza A Viruses from Diverse Geographic Origins within Australian Wild Birds: Evidence from a Small, Isolated Population of Ruddy Turnstones

Australian lineages of avian influenza A viruses (AIVs) are thought to be phylogenetically distinct from those circulating in Eurasia and the Americas, suggesting the circulation of endemic viruses seeded by occasional introductions from other regions. However, processes underlying the introduction, evolution and maintenance of AIVs in Australia remain poorly understood. Waders (order Charadriiformes, family Scolopacidae) may play a unique role in the ecology and evolution of AIVs, particularly in Australia, where ducks, geese, and swans (order Anseriformes, family Anatidae) rarely undertake intercontinental migrations. Across a 5-year surveillance period (2011 to 2015), ruddy turnstones (Arenaria interpres) that "overwinter" during the Austral summer in southeastern Australia showed generally low levels of AIV prevalence (0 to 2%). However, in March 2014, we detected AIVs in 32% (95% confidence interval [CI], 25 to 39%) of individuals in a small, low-density, island population 90 km from the Australian mainland. This epizootic comprised three distinct AIV genotypes, each of which represent a unique reassortment of Australian-, recently introduced Eurasian-, and recently introduced American-lineage gene segments. Strikingly, the Australian-lineage gene segments showed high similarity to those of H10N7 viruses isolated in 2010 and 2012 from poultry outbreaks 900 to 1,500 km to the north. Together with the diverse geographic origins of the American and Eurasian gene segments, these findings suggest extensive circulation and reassortment of AIVs within Australian wild birds over vast geographic distances. Our findings indicate that long-term surveillance in waders may yield unique insights into AIV gene flow, especially in geographic regions like Oceania, where Anatidae species do not display regular inter- or intracontinental migration.IMPORTANCE High prevalence of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) was detected in a small, low-density, isolated population of ruddy turnstones in Australia. Analysis of these viruses revealed relatively recent introductions of viral gene segments from both Eurasia and North America, as well as long-term persistence of introduced gene segments in Australian wild birds. These data demonstrate that the flow of viruses into Australia may be more common than initially thought and that, once introduced, these AIVs have the potential to be maintained within the continent. These findings add to a growing body of evidence suggesting that Australian wild birds are unlikely to be ecologically isolated from the highly pathogenic H5Nx viruses circulating among wild birds throughout the Northern Hemisphere.

Molecular identification and phylogenetic characterization of influenza A virus at a wildlife-livestock interface in Mexico

Influenza A virus (IAV) outbreaks constitute a constant threat to public health and pose a remarkable impact on socio-economic systems worldwide. Interactions between wild and domestic birds, humans and swine can lead to spillover events. Backyard livestock systems in proximity to wetlands represent high-risk areas for viral spread. However, some gaps remain in our knowledge of IAV transmission at the wildlife-livestock interface in Mexico. Hence, the study aimed at molecular identification and phylogenetic characterization of IAV in the wild duck-backyard livestock interface at a wetland of Mexico. A total of 875 animals were tested by real-time RT-PCR (qRT-PCR). We detected IAV in 3.68% of the wild ducks sampled during the winter season 2016-2017. Nonetheless, the samples obtained from backyard poultry and swine tested negative. The highest IAV frequency (11.10%) was found in the Mexican duck (Anas diazi). Subtypes H1N1, H3N2 and H5N2 were detected. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that IAV detected in wild birds from the Lerma wetlands was mostly related to swine and poultry IAV strains previously isolated in the United States and Mexico. Except, the UIFMVZ377/H5N2 related to North American waterbirds. In conclusion, the co-circulation of three IAV subtypes in wild ducks close to backyard farms in Mexico, as well as the local identification of influenza viruses genetically related to Mexican and North American IAV strains, highlights the importance of the Lerma marshes for influenza surveillance given the close interaction among wild birds, poultry, pigs and humans.

A Review of Avian Influenza A Virus Associations in Synanthropic Birds

Avian influenza A viruses (IAV) have received significant attention due to the threat they pose to human, livestock, and wildlife health. In this review, we focus on what is known about IAV dynamics in less common avian species that may play a role in trafficking IAVs to poultry operations. Specifically, we focus on synanthropic bird species. Synanthropic species, otherwise known as peridomestic, are species that are ecologically associated with humans and anthropogenically modified landscapes, such as agricultural and urban areas. Aquatic birds such as waterfowl and shorebirds are the species most commonly associated with avian IAVs, and are generally considered the reservoir or maintenance hosts in the natural ecology of these viruses. Waterfowl and shorebirds are occasionally associated with poultry facilities, but are uncommon or absent in many areas, especially large commercial operations. In these cases, spillover hosts that share resources with both maintenance hosts and target hosts such as poultry may play an important role in introducing wild bird viruses onto farms. Consequently, our focus here is on what is known about IAV dynamics in synanthropic hosts that are commonly found on both farms and in nearby habitats, such as fields, lakes, wetlands, or riparian areas occupied by waterfowl or shorebirds.

Phylogeographic analysis of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus isolated in Cambodia from 2018 to 2019

Since 2004, several outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) have been reported in Cambodia. Until 2013, all H5N1 viruses identified in Cambodia belonged to clade 1 and its subclades. H5N1 HPAI viruses belonging to clade 2.3.2.1c have been dominant since the beginning of 2014, with various genotypes (KH1-KH5) reported. Here, we isolated nine H5N1 HPAI viruses from domestic poultry farms and slaughterhouses in Cambodia during 2018-2019 and performed phylogenetic analysis of whole genome sequences. All isolates were classified as H5 clade 2.3.2.1c viruses and all harbored multi-basic amino acid sequences (PQRERRRKR/GLF) at the haemagglutinin (HA) cleavage site. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the H5N1 isolates in this study belonged to the KH2 genotype, the dominant genotype in Cambodia in 2015. Phylogenetic analysis of the HA gene showed that the isolates were divided into two groups (A and B). The results of Bayesian discrete phylogeography analysis revealed that the viral migration pathways from Vietnam to Cambodia (Bayes factor value: 734,039.01; posterior probability: 1.00) and from Cambodia to Vietnam (Bayes factor value: 26,199.95; posterior probability: 1.00) were supported by high statistical values. These well-supported viral migrations between Vietnam and Cambodia demonstrate that viral transmission continued in both directions. Several factors may have contributed to this, including the free-grazing duck system and movement of poultry-related products. Thus, the results emphasize the need for an enhanced international surveillance program to better understand transboundary infection and evolution of H5N1 HPAI viruses, along with implementation of more stringent international trade controls on poultry and poultry products.

Phylodynamic analyses of class I Newcastle disease virus isolated in China

Newcastle disease virus (NDV), the pathogen of Newcastle disease, has caused significant losses to the poultry industry worldwide. However, owing to its avirulence, class I NDVs have not been studied as much as class II NDVs. We aimed to epidemiologically monitor the spread of class I NDVs in China. We isolated 104 class I NDV strains from poultry in live poultry markets (LPMs) of Guangdong Province, south China, between January 2016 and December 2018. Genetic analysis revealed that all 104 isolates and most of the strains isolated from China were clustered into genotype 1.1.2 of class I NDVs. Bayesian analysis revealed that, although the United States may be the source, east and south China may be the epicentres of class I NDVs in China. In addition, in China, class I NDVs are presumably transmitted by chickens and domestic ducks as the virus is mostly prevalent in these birds. These novel findings demonstrated that class I NDVs are prevalent in south China, and it is important to perform routine surveillance and limit the numbers of different birds in different areas of LPMs to decrease the risk of intra- and interspecies transmission of NDVs.

Genetic evolution and transmission dynamics of clade 2.3.2.1a highly pathogenic avian influenza A/H5N1 viruses in Bangladesh

Asian lineage A/H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs) have been responsible for continuous outbreaks in Bangladesh since 2007. Although clades 2.2.2 and 2.3.4.2 HPAIVs have disappeared since poultry vaccination was introduced in 2012, clade 2.3.2.1a viruses have continued to be detected in Bangladesh. In this study, we identified A/H9N2 (n = 15), A/H5N1 (n = 19), and A/H5N1-A/H9N2 (n = 18) mixed viruses from live bird markets, chicken farms, and wild house crows (Corvus splendens) in Bangladesh from 2016 to 2018. We analyzed the genetic sequences of the H5 HPAIVs, to better understand the evolutionary history of clade 2.3.2.1a viruses in Bangladesh. Although seven HA genetic subgroups (B1-B7) and six genotypes (G1, G1.1, G1.2, G2, G2.1, and G2.2) have been identified in Bangladesh, only subgroup B7 and genotypes G2, G2.1, and G2.2 were detected after 2016. The replacement of G1 genotype by G2 in Bangladesh was possibly due to vaccination and viral competition in duck populations. Initially, genetic diversity decreased after introduction of vaccination in 2012, but in 2015, genetic diversity increased and was associated with the emergence of genotype G2. Our phylodynamic analysis suggests that domestic Anseriformes, including ducks and geese, may have played a major role in persistence, spread, evolution, and genotype replacement of clade 2.3.2.1a HPAIVs in Bangladesh. Thus, improvements in biosecurity and monitoring of domestic Anseriformes are needed for more effective control of HPAI in Bangladesh.

A brief history of bird flu

In 1918, a strain of influenza A virus caused a human pandemic resulting in the deaths of 50 million people. A century later, with the advent of sequencing technology and corresponding phylogenetic methods, we know much more about the origins, evolution and epidemiology of influenza epidemics. Here we review the history of avian influenza viruses through the lens of their genetic makeup: from their relationship to human pandemic viruses, starting with the 1918 H1N1 strain, through to the highly pathogenic epidemics in birds and zoonoses up to 2018. We describe the genesis of novel influenza A virus strains by reassortment and evolution in wild and domestic bird populations, as well as the role of wild bird migration in their long-range spread. The emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses, and the zoonotic incursions of avian H5 and H7 viruses into humans over the last couple of decades are also described. The threat of a new avian influenza virus causing a human pandemic is still present today, although control in domestic avian populations can minimize the risk to human health.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’.

Live bird markets as evolutionary epicentres of H9N2 low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses in Korea

Live bird markets (LBMs) in Korea have been recognized as a reservoir, amplifier, and source of avian influenza viruses (AIVs); however, little was known about the role of LBMs in the epidemiology of AIVs in Korea until recently. Through 10 years of surveillance (2006–2016) we have isolated and sequenced H9N2 viruses in Korean LBMs. To understand how H9N2 evolves and spreads in Korea, a statistical Bayesian phylogenetic model was used. Phylogenetic analysis suggests that three separate introductions of progenitor gene pools, Korean domestic duck-origin and two wild aquatic bird-origin AIVs, contributed to the generation of the five genotypes of H9N2 viruses in Korea. Phylogenetic reconstruction of ecological states infer that the LBMs are where chickens become infected with the virus, with domestic ducks playing a major role in the transmission and evolution of the H9N2 viruses. Three increases in the genetic diversity of H9N2 viruses were observed and coincided with transitions in host species and the locations (domestic farm, LBM, slaughterhouse, and wild aquatic bird habitat) where the viruses were isolated, accompanying genetic reassortment. Following the introduction of a wild aquatic bird-origin AIVs in 2008, six genes of the Korean lineage H9N2 virus were replaced with genes originating from wild aquatic birds, and viruses with this new genotype became predominant in Korean LBMs.

Assessing the role of live poultry trade in community-structured transmission of avian influenza in China

The live poultry trade is thought to play an important role in the spread and maintenance of highly pathogenic avian influenza A viruses (HP AIVs) in Asia. Despite an abundance of small-scale observational studies, the role of the poultry trade in disseminating AIV over large geographic areas is still unclear, especially for developing countries with complex poultry production systems. Here we combine virus genomes and reconstructed poultry transportation data to measure and compare the spatial spread in China of three key subtypes of AIV: H5N1, H7N9, and H5N6. Although it is difficult to disentangle the contribution of confounding factors, such as bird migration and spatial distance, we find evidence that the dissemination of these subtypes among domestic poultry is geographically continuous and likely associated with the intensity of the live poultry trade in China. Using two independent data sources and network analysis methods, we report a regional-scale community structure in China that might explain the spread of AIV subtypes in the country. The identification of this structure has the potential to inform more targeted strategies for the prevention and control of AIV in China.

Active surveillance and genetic evolution of avian influenza viruses in Egypt, 2016-2018

Egypt is a hotspot for avian influenza virus (AIV) due to the endemicity of H5N1 and H9N2 viruses. AIVs were isolated from 329 samples collected in 2016–2018; 48% were H9N2, 37.1% were H5N8, 7.6% were H5N1, and 7.3% were co-infections with 2 of the 3 subtypes. The 32 hemagglutinin (HA) sequences of the H5N1 viruses formed a well-defined lineage within clade 2.2.1.2. The 10 HA sequences of the H5N8 viruses belonged to a subclade within 2.3.4.4. The 11 HA of H9N2 isolates showed high sequence homology with other Egyptian G1-like H9N2 viruses. The prevalence of H5N8 viruses in ducks (2.4%) was higher than in chickens (0.94%). Genetic reassortment was detected in H9N2 viruses. Antigenic analysis showed that H9N2 viruses are homogenous, antigenic drift was detected among H5N1 viruses. AI H5N8 showed higher replication rate followed by H9N2 and H5N1, respectively. H5N8 was more common in Southern Egypt, H9N2 in the Nile Delta, and H5N1 in both areas. Ducks and chickens played a significant role in transmission of H5N1 viruses. The endemicity and co-circulation of H5N1, H5N8, and H9N2 AIV coupled with the lack of a clear control strategy continues to provide avenues for further virus evolution in Egypt.

Genetic and pathogenic characteristics of clade 2.3.2.1c H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses isolated from poultry outbreaks in Laos during 2015-2018

Since 2004, there have been multiple outbreaks of H5 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses in Laos. Here, we isolated H5N1 HPAI viruses from poultry outbreaks in Laos during 2015-2018 and investigated their genetic characteristics and pathogenicity in chickens. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the isolates belonged to clade 2.3.2.1c and that they differed from previous Laos viruses with respect to genetic composition. In particular, the isolates were divided into two genotypes, each of which had a different NS segments. The results of possible migration analysis suggested a high likelihood that the Laos isolates were introduced from neighbouring countries, particularly Vietnam. The recent Laos isolate, A/Duck/Laos/NL-1504599/2018, had an intravenous pathogenicity index score of 3.0 and showed a 50% chicken lethal dose of 10^2.5 EID₅₀ /0.1 ml, indicating high pathogenicity. The isolated viruses exhibited no critical substitution in the markers associated with mammalian adaptation, but possess markers related to neuraminidase inhibitor resistance. These results emphasize the need for ongoing surveillance of circulating influenza virus in South-East Asia, including Laos, to better prepare for and mitigate global spread of H5 HPAI.

Avian influenza viruses in humans: lessons from past outbreaks

BACKGROUND

Human infections with avian influenza viruses (AIV) represent a persistent public health threat. The principal risk factor governing human infection with AIV is from direct contact with infected poultry and is primarily observed in Asia and Egypt where live-bird markets are common.

AREAS OF AGREEMENT

Changing patterns of virus transmission and a lack of obvious disease manifestations in avian species hampers early detection and efficient control of potentially zoonotic AIV.

AREAS OF CONTROVERSY

Despite extensive studies on biological and environmental risk factors, the exact conditions required for cross-species transmission from avian species to humans remain largely unknown.

GROWING POINTS

The development of a universal ('across-subtype') influenza vaccine and effective antiviral therapeutics are a priority.

AREAS TIMELY FOR DEVELOPING RESEARCH

Sustained virus surveillance and collection of ecological and physiological parameters from birds in different environments is required to better understand influenza virus ecology and identify risk factors for human infection.

Domestic ducks play a major role in the maintenance and spread of H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses in South Korea

The H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs) belonging to clade 2.3.4.4 spread from Eastern China to Korea in 2014 and caused outbreaks in domestic poultry until 2016. To understand how H5N8 HPAIVs spread at host species level in Korea during 2014-2016, a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis was used for ancestral state reconstruction and estimation of the host transition dynamics between wild waterfowl, domestic ducks and chickens. Our data support that H5N8 HPAIV most likely transmitted from wild waterfowl to domestic ducks, and then maintained in domestic ducks followed by dispersal of HPAIV from domestic ducks to chickens, suggesting domestic duck population plays a central role in the maintenance, amplification and spread of wild HPAIV to terrestrial poultry in Korea.

Global patterns of avian influenza A (H7): virus evolution and zoonotic threats

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) continue to impose a negative impact on animal and human health worldwide. In particular, the emergence of highly pathogenic AIV H5 and, more recently, the emergence of low pathogenic AIV H7N9 have led to enormous socioeconomical losses in the poultry industry and resulted in fatal human infections. While H5N1 remains infamous, the number of zoonotic infections with H7N9 has far surpassed those attributed to H5. Despite the clear public health concerns posed by AIV H7, it is unclear why specifically this virus subtype became endemic in poultry and emerged in humans. In this review, we bring together data on global patterns of H7 circulation, evolution and emergence in humans. Specifically, we discuss data from the wild bird reservoir, expansion and epidemiology in poultry, significant increase in their zoonotic potential since 2013 and genesis of highly pathogenic H7. In addition, we analysed available sequence data from an evolutionary perspective, demonstrating patterns of introductions into distinct geographic regions and reassortment dynamics. The integration of all aspects is crucial in the optimisation of surveillance efforts in wild birds, poultry and humans, and we emphasise the need for a One Health approach in controlling emerging viruses such as AIV H7.

Bayesian phylodynamics of avian influenza A virus H9N2 in Asia with time-dependent predictors of migration

Model-based phylodynamic approaches recently employed generalized linear models (GLMs) to uncover potential predictors of viral spread. Very recently some of these models have allowed both the predictors and their coefficients to be time-dependent. However, these studies mainly focused on predictors that are assumed to be constant through time. Here we inferred the phylodynamics of avian influenza A virus H9N2 isolated in 12 Asian countries and regions under both discrete trait analysis (DTA) and structured coalescent (MASCOT) approaches. Using MASCOT we applied a new time-dependent GLM to uncover the underlying factors behind H9N2 spread. We curated a rich set of time-series predictors including annual international live poultry trade and national poultry production figures. This time-dependent phylodynamic prediction model was compared to commonly employed time-independent alternatives. Additionally the time-dependent MASCOT model allowed for the estimation of viral effective sub-population sizes and their changes through time, and these effective population dynamics within each country were predicted by a GLM. International annual poultry trade is a strongly supported predictor of virus migration rates. There was also strong support for geographic proximity as a predictor of migration rate in all GLMs investigated. In time-dependent MASCOT models, national poultry production was also identified as a predictor of virus genetic diversity through time and this signal was obvious in mainland China. Our application of a recently introduced time-dependent GLM predictors integrated rich time-series data in Bayesian phylodynamic prediction. We demonstrated the contribution of poultry trade and geographic proximity (potentially unheralded wild bird movements) to avian influenza spread in Asia. To gain a better understanding of the drivers of H9N2 spread, we suggest increased surveillance of the H9N2 virus in countries that are currently under-sampled as well as in wild bird populations in the most affected countries.

Comparison of 2016-17 and Previous Epizootics of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5 Guangdong Lineage in Europe

We analyzed the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5 epizootic of 2016-17 in Europe by epidemiologic and genetic characteristics and compared it with 2 previous epizootics caused by the same H5 Guangdong lineage. The 2016-17 epizootic was the largest in Europe by number of countries and farms affected and greatest diversity of wild birds infected. We observed significant differences among the 3 epizootics regarding region affected, epidemic curve, seasonality, and outbreak duration, making it difficult to predict future HPAI epizootics. However, we know that in 2005-06 and 2016-17 the initial peak of wild bird detections preceded the peak of poultry outbreaks within Europe. Phylogenetic analysis of 2016-17 viruses indicates 2 main pathways into Europe. Our findings highlight the need for global surveillance of viral changes to inform disease preparedness, detection, and control.

Global phylodynamic analysis of avian paramyxovirus-1 provides evidence of inter-host transmission and intercontinental spatial diffusion

BACKGROUND

Avian avulavirus (commonly known as avian paramyxovirus-1 or APMV-1) can cause disease of varying severity in both domestic and wild birds. Understanding how viruses move among hosts and geography would be useful for informing prevention and control efforts. A Bayesian statistical framework was employed to estimate the evolutionary history of 1602 complete fusion gene APMV-1 sequences collected from 1970 to 2016 in order to infer viral transmission between avian host orders and diffusion among geographic regions. Ancestral states were estimated with a non-reversible continuous-time Markov chain model, allowing transition rates between discrete states to be calculated. The evolutionary analyses were stratified by APMV-1 classes I (n = 198) and II (n = 1404), and only those sequences collected between 2006 and 2016 were allowed to contribute host and location information to the viral migration networks.

RESULTS

While the current data was unable to assess impact of host domestication status on APMV-1 diffusion, these analyses supported the sharing of APMV-1 among divergent host taxa. The highest supported transition rate for both classes existed from domestic chickens to Anseriformes (class I:6.18 transitions/year, 95% highest posterior density (HPD) 0.31-20.02, Bayes factor (BF) = 367.2; class II:2.88 transitions/year, 95%HPD 1.9-4.06, BF = 34,582.9). Further, among class II viruses, domestic chickens also acted as a source for Columbiformes (BF = 34,582.9), other Galliformes (BF = 34,582.9), and Psittaciformes (BF = 34,582.9). Columbiformes was also a highly supported source to Anseriformes (BF = 322.0) and domestic chickens (BF = 402.6). Additionally, our results provide support for the diffusion of viruses among continents and regions, but no interhemispheric viral exchange between 2006 and 2016. Among class II viruses, the highest transition rates were estimated from South Asia to the Middle East (1.21 transitions/year; 95%HPD 0.36-2.45; BF = 67,107.8), from Europe to East Asia (1.17 transitions/year; 95%HPD 0.12-2.61; BF = 436.2) and from Europe to Africa (1.06 transitions/year, 95%HPD 0.07-2.51; BF = 169.3).

CONCLUSIONS

While migration appears to occur infrequently, geographic movement may be important in determining viral diversification and population structure. In contrast, inter-order transmission of APMV-1 may occur readily, but most events are transient with few lineages persisting in novel hosts.

B cell epitopes in the intrinsically disordered regions of neuraminidase and hemagglutinin proteins of H5N1 and H9N2 avian influenza viruses for peptide-based vaccine development

Avian influenza viruses (AIV) are very active in several parts of the globe and are the cause of huge economic loss for the poultry industry and also human fatalities. Three dimensional modeling was carried out for neuraminidase (NA) and hemagglutinin (HA) proteins of AIV. The C-score, estimated TM-Score, and estimated root-mean-square deviation (RMSD) score for NA of H5N1 were -1.18, 0.57 ± 0.15, and 9.8 ± 7.6, respectively. The C-score, estimated TM-Score, and estimated RMSD score for NA of H9N2 were -1.43, 0.54 ± 0.15, and 10.5 ± 4.6, respectively. The C-score, estimated TM-Score, and estimated RMSD score for HA of H5N1 were -0.03, 0.71 ± 0.12, and 7.7 ± 4.3, respectively. The C-score, estimated TM-Score, and estimated RMSD score for HA of H9N2 were -0.57, 0.64 ± 0.13, and 8.9 ± 4.6, respectively. Intrinsically disordered regions were identified for the NA and HA proteins of H5N1 and H9N2 with the use of PONDR program. Linear B cell epitope was predicted using BepiPred 2 program for NA and HA of H5N1 and H9N2 avian influenza strains. Discontinuous epitopes were predicted by Discotope 2 program. The linear epitopes that were considered likely to be immunogenic and within the intrinsically disordered region for the NA of H5N1 was TKSTNSRSGFEMIWDPNGWTGTDSSFSVK, and for H9N2 it was VGDTPRNDDSSSSSNCRDPNNERGAP. In the case of HA of H5N1, it was QRLVPKIATRSKVNGQSG and ATGLRNSPQRERRRKK; for H9N2 it was INRTFKPLIGPRPLVNGLQG and SLKLAVGLRNVPARSSR. The discontinuous epitopes of NA of H5N1 and H9N2 were identified at various regions of the protein structure spanning from amino acid residue positions 90 to 449 and 107 to 469, respectively. Similarly, the discontinuous epitopes of HA of H5N1 and H9N2 were identified in the amino acid residue positions 27 to 517 and 136 to 521, respectively. This study has identified potential and highly immunogenic linear and conformational B-cell epitopes towards developing a vaccine against AIV both for human and poultry use.

Transmission Dynamics of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus A(H5Nx) Clade 2.3.4.4, North America, 2014-2015

Eurasia highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5 clade 2.3.4.4 emerged in North America at the end of 2014 and caused outbreaks affecting >50 million poultry in the United States before eradication in June 2015. We investigated the underlying ecologic and epidemiologic processes associated with this viral spread by performing a comparative genomic study using 268 full-length genome sequences and data from outbreak investigations. Reassortant HPAIV H5N2 circulated in wild birds along the Pacific flyway before several spillover events transmitting the virus to poultry farms. Our analysis suggests that >3 separate introductions of HPAIV H5N2 into Midwest states occurred during March–June 2015; transmission to Midwest poultry farms from Pacific wild birds occurred ≈1.7–2.4 months before detection. Once established in poultry, the virus rapidly spread between turkey and chicken farms in neighboring states. Enhanced biosecurity is required to prevent the introduction and dissemination of HPAIV across the poultry industry.

Characterising routes of H5N1 and H7N9 spread in China using Bayesian phylogeographical analysis

Avian influenza H5N1 subtype has caused a global public health concern due to its high pathogenicity in poultry and high case fatality rates in humans. The recently emerged H7N9 is a growing pandemic risk due to its sustained high rates of human infections, and recently acquired high pathogenicity in poultry. Here, we used Bayesian phylogeography on 265 H5N1 and 371 H7N9 haemagglutinin sequences isolated from humans, animals and the environment, to identify and compare migration patterns and factors predictive of H5N1 and H7N9 diffusion rates in China. H7N9 diffusion dynamics and predictor contributions differ from H5N1. Key determinants of spatial diffusion included: proximity between locations (for H5N1 and H7N9), and lower rural population densities (H5N1 only). For H7N9, additional predictors included low avian influenza vaccination rates, low percentage of nature reserves and high humidity levels. For both H5N1 and H7N9, we found viral migration rates from Guangdong to Guangxi and Guangdong to Hunan were highly supported transmission routes (Bayes Factor > 30). We show fundamental differences in wide-scale transmission dynamics between H5N1 and H7N9. Importantly, this indicates that avian influenza initiatives designed to control H5N1 may not be sufficient for controlling the H7N9 epidemic. We suggest control and prevention activities to specifically target poultry transportation networks between Central, Pan-Pearl River Delta and South-West regions.

Avian influenza virus ecology and evolution through a climatic lens

Avian influenza virus (AIV) is a major health threat to both avian and human populations. The ecology of the virus is driven by numerous factors, including climate and avian migration patterns, yet relatively little is known about these drivers. Long-distance transport of the virus is tied to inter- and intra-continental bird migration, while enhanced viral reassortment is linked to breeding habitats in Beringia shared by migrant species from North America and Asia. Furthermore, water temperature, pH, salinity, and co-existing biota all impact the viability and persistence of the virus in the environment. Changes in climate can potentially alter the ecology of AIV through multiple pathways. Warming temperatures can change the timing and patterns of bird migration, creating novel assemblages of species and new opportunities for viral transport and reassortment. Water temperature and chemistry may also be altered, resulting in changes in virus survival. In this review, we explain how these shifts have the potential to increase viral persistence, pathogenicity, and transmissibility and amplify the threat of pandemic disease in animal and human hosts. Better understanding of climatic influences on viral ecology is essential to developing strategies to limit adverse health effects in humans and animals.

Global dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry between 2005 and 2016-Focus on distance and rate of spread

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is of major importance for human and animal health because of high morbidity and mortality in poultry and the potential for transmission of this zoonotic pathogen to humans. Knowledge of HPAI epidemiology in avian populations and practical information on the temporal and spatial spread of the disease after introduction into a country is important in order to enhance the capacity of predicting and managing epidemics to minimize the negative impacts on human and animal health. Using data reported to the World Organisation for Animal Health between 2005 and 2017 by 199 countries for 14,129 outbreaks in poultry, we used a spatial and time-series analysis to determine that: (a) During the last 12 years, there were two major global peaks in the number of countries affected by HPAI with 23% and 26% of countries affected in 2006 and 2016. (b) Based on the seasonality analysis, spread is the lowest in September, begins to rise in October, and peaks in February. (c) The median distance HPAI outbreaks spread from the index outbreak was 111 km, while the median apparent rate of spread of outbreaks was 1.9 km/day. (d) In 39% of HPAI events, the disease did not spread beyond the index outbreak and the median maximum spread from the index outbreak per event was 45 km. (e) The distance HPAI outbreaks spread from the index outbreak was significantly negatively correlated with the number of outbreaks during the same time period, indicating that the spread of HPAI was lower during global panzootics than during periods of low transmission. These findings are of major importance for veterinary services to design and implement surveillance measures for improving preparedness to minimize the impacts of this disease.

Characterization of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N8 virus from Egyptian domestic waterfowl in 2017

In 2016, the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N8 virus was detected in wild birds for the first time in Egypt. In the present study, we identified the HPAI virus H5N8 of clade 2.3.4.4 from domestic waterfowl in Egypt, suggesting its transmission to the domestic poultry from the migratory birds. Based on partial haemagglutinin gene sequence, this virus has a close genetic relationship with subtype H5N8 viruses circulating in Asia and Europe. Pathologically, H5N8 virus in hybrid duck induced nervous signs accompanied by encephalomalacia, haemorrhages, nonsuppurative encephalitis and nonsuppurative vasculitis. The granular layer of cerebellum showed multifocal areas of hydropic degeneration and the Purkinje cell neurons were necrotized or lost. Additionally, the lung, kidney and spleen were congested, and necrotizing pancreatitis was also observed. The co-circulation of both HPAI H5N1 and H5N8 subtypes with the low pathogenic avian influenza H9N2 subtype complicate the control of avian influenza in Egypt with the possibility of emergence of new reassortant viruses. Therefore, continuous monitoring with implementation of strict control measures is required. Research highlights HPAI H5N8 virus clade 2.3.4.4 was detected in domestic ducks and geese in Egypt in 2017. Phylogenetically, the virus was closely related to HPAI H5N8 viruses identified in Asia and Europe Nonsuppurative encephalitis was widely observed in HPAI H5N8 virus-infected ducks. Degeneration of the cerebellar granular layer was found in most of the brain tissues examined.

Are Poultry or Wild Birds the Main Reservoirs for Avian Influenza in Bangladesh?

Avian influenza viruses (AIV) are of great socioeconomic and health concern, notably in Southeast Asia where highly pathogenic strains, such as highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 and other H5 and H7 AIVs, continue to occur. Wild bird migrants are often implicated in the maintenance and spread of AIV. However, little systematic surveillance of wild birds has been conducted in Southeast Asia to evaluate whether the prevalence of AIV in wild birds is higher than in other parts of the world where HPAI outbreaks occur less frequently. Across Bangladesh, we randomly sampled a total of 3585 wild and domestic birds to assess the prevalence of AIV and antibodies against AIV and compared these with prevalence levels found in other endemic and non-endemic countries. Our study showed that both resident and migratory wild birds in Bangladesh do not have a particularly elevated AIV prevalence and AIV sero-prevalence compared to wild birds from regions in the world where H5N1 is not endemic and fewer AIV outbreaks in poultry occur. Like elsewhere, notably wild birds of the orders Anseriformes were identified as the main wild bird reservoir, although we found exceptionally high sero-prevalence in one representative of the order Passeriformes, the house crow (Corvus splendens), importantly living on offal from live bird markets. This finding, together with high sero- and viral prevalence levels of AIV in domestic birds, suggests that wild birds are not at the base of the perpetuation of AIV problems in the local poultry sector, but may easily become victim to AIV spill back from poultry into some species of wild birds, potentially assisting in further spread of the virus.

The impact of migratory flyways on the spread of avian influenza virus in North America

Background

Wild birds are the major reservoir hosts for influenza A viruses (AIVs) and have been implicated in the emergence of pandemic events in livestock and human populations. Understanding how AIVs spread within and across continents is therefore critical to the development of successful strategies to manage and reduce the impact of influenza outbreaks. In North America many bird species undergo seasonal migratory movements along a North-South axis, thereby providing opportunities for viruses to spread over long distances. However, the role played by such avian flyways in shaping the genetic structure of AIV populations remains uncertain.

Results

To assess the relative contribution of bird migration along flyways to the genetic structure of AIV we performed a large-scale phylogeographic study of viruses sampled in the USA and Canada, involving the analysis of 3805 to 4505 sequences from 36 to 38 geographic localities depending on the gene segment data set. To assist in this we developed a maximum likelihood-based genetic algorithm to explore a wide range of complex spatial models, depicting a more complete picture of the migration network than determined previously.

Conclusions

Based on phylogenies estimated from nucleotide sequence data sets, our results show that AIV migration rates are significantly higher within than between flyways, indicating that the migratory patterns of birds play a key role in viral dispersal. These findings provide valuable insights into the evolution, maintenance and transmission of AIVs, in turn allowing the development of improved programs for surveillance and risk assessment.

H9N2 Influenza A Virus Isolated from a Greater White-Fronted Wild Goose (Anser albifrons) in Alaska Has a Mutation in the PB2 Gene, Which Is Associated with Pathogenicity in Human Pandemic 2009 H1N1

We report here the genomic sequence of an H9N2 influenza A virus [A/greater white-fronted goose/Alaska/81081/2008 (H9N2)]. This virus shares ≥99.8% identity with a previously reported virus. Both strains contain a G590S mutation in the polymerase basic 2 (PB2) gene, which is a pathogenicity marker in the pandemic 2009 H1N1 virus when combined with R591.

Ecosystem Interactions Underlie the Spread of Avian Influenza A Viruses with Pandemic Potential

Despite evidence for avian influenza A virus (AIV) transmission between wild and domestic ecosystems, the roles of bird migration and poultry trade in the spread of viruses remain enigmatic. In this study, we integrate ecosystem interactions into a phylogeographic model to assess the contribution of wild and domestic hosts to AIV distribution and persistence. Analysis of globally sampled AIV datasets shows frequent two-way transmission between wild and domestic ecosystems. In general, viral flow from domestic to wild bird populations was restricted to within a geographic region. In contrast, spillover from wild to domestic populations occurred both within and between regions. Wild birds mediated long-distance dispersal at intercontinental scales whereas viral spread among poultry populations was a major driver of regional spread. Viral spread between poultry flocks frequently originated from persistent lineages circulating in regions of intensive poultry production. Our analysis of long-term surveillance data demonstrates that meaningful insights can be inferred from integrating ecosystem into phylogeographic reconstructions that may be consequential for pandemic preparedness and livestock protection.

A point mutation in the polymerase protein PB2 allows a reassortant H9N2 influenza isolate of wild-bird origin to replicate in human cells

H9N2 influenza A viruses are on the list of potentially pandemic subtypes. Therefore, it is important to understand how genomic reassortment and genetic polymorphisms affect phenotypes of H9N2 viruses circulating in the wild bird reservoir. A comparative genetic analysis of North American H9N2 isolates of wild bird origin identified a naturally occurring reassortant virus containing gene segments derived from both North American and Eurasian lineage ancestors. The PB2 segment of this virus encodes 10 amino acid changes that distinguish it from other H9 strains circulating in North America. G590S, one of the 10 amino acid substitutions observed, was present in ~12% of H9 viruses worldwide. This mutation combined with R591 has been reported as a marker of pathogenicity for human pandemic 2009 H1N1 viruses. Screening by polymerase reporter assay of all the natural polymorphisms at these two positions identified G590/K591 and S590/K591 as the most active, with the highest polymerase activity recorded for the SK polymorphism. Rescued viruses containing these two polymorphic combinations replicated more efficiently in MDCK cells and they were the only ones tested that were capable of establishing productive infection in NHBE cells. A global analysis of all PB2 sequences identified the K591 signature in six viral HA/NA subtypes isolated from several hosts in seven geographic locations. Interestingly, introducing the K591 mutation into the PB2 of a human-adapted H3N2 virus did not affect its polymerase activity. Our findings demonstrate that a single point mutation in the PB2 of a low pathogenic H9N2 isolate could have a significant effect on viral phenotype and increase its propensity to infect mammals. However, this effect is not universal, warranting caution in interpreting point mutations without considering protein sequence context.