Analysis of northern distribution of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Japan by geographical information system

Tiger prowling: Distribution modelling for northward-expanding Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Japan

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is a significant public health concern owing to its expanding habitat and vector competence. Disease outbreaks attributed to this species have been reported in areas under its invasion, and its northward expansion in Japan has caused concern because of the potential for dengue virus infection in newly populated areas. Accurate prediction of Ae. albopictus distribution is crucial to prevent the spread of the disease. However, limited studies have focused on the prediction of Ae. albopictus distribution in Japan. Herein, we used the random forest model, a machine learning approach, to predict the current and potential future habitat ranges of Ae. albopictus in Japan. The model revealed that these mosquitoes prefer urban areas over forests in Japan on the current map. Under predictions for the future, the species will expand its range to the surrounding areas and eventually reach many areas of northeastern Kanto, Tohoku District, and Hokkaido, with a few variations in different scenarios. However, the affected human population is predicted to decrease owing to the declining birth rate. Anthropogenic and climatic factors contribute to range expansion, and urban size and population have profound impacts. This prediction map can guide responses to the introduction of this species in new areas, advance the spatial knowledge of diseases vectored by it, and mitigate the possible disease burden. To our knowledge, this is the first distribution-modelling prediction for Ae. albopictus with a focus on Japan.

Geographic expansion of the introduced Aedes albopictus and other native Aedes species in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

BACKGROUND

Aedes albopictus has been reported in several Central African countries, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The establishment of this mosquito species poses a serious threat as a vector of various infectious diseases. Although Ae. albopictus has been reported in the western region of the DRC, information about its distribution is still scarce in the country. The aim of this study was to investigate the current nationwide distribution of the invasive Ae. albopictus, as well as other native Aedes mosquitoes, in the DRC and to identify suitable areas for its future expansion.

METHODS

Two entomological surveys were conducted in 2017-2019 and 2022. Based on the occurrence sites of Ae. albopictus, important environmental variables were identified. Then, geographical areas suitable for Ae. albopictus establishment were determined using the maximum entropy model. The distribution and abundance of Ae. albopictus were also compared with those of the major native Aedes species.

RESULTS

Aedes albopictus was found in the western, northern, central, and eastern regions of the DRC, but it was not found in the southeastern region. The maximum entropy model predicted that most parts of the DRC are suitable for the establishment of this mosquito. The unsuitable areas encompassed the eastern highlands, known for their low temperatures, and the southeastern highlands, which experience both low temperatures and a long dry season. The native Aedes species found were Aedes aegypti, Aedes simpsoni, Aedes africanus, and Aedes vittatus. Aedes albopictus dominated in the western and northern regions, while Ae. aegypti was more prevalent in other regions.

CONCLUSIONS

Aedes albopictus has been well established in the western and northern regions of the DRC. This mosquito is expanding its distribution while replacing the native Aedes species. Most of the country is suitable for the establishment of this mosquito species, except the highlands of the eastern and the southeastern regions.

Impact of larvae of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus on larvae of the Culex pipiens complex from Germany in laboratory co-breeding studies

Since the first detection of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) eggs in Germany in 2007, several populations of this species have established in Germany. Although colloquially Ae. albopictus is called an 'invasive species', it is not considered 'invasive' and therefore to be controlled according to the European Union (EU) Environmental and Nature Protection Act since evidence of displacement of native species is missing. To test the competitive potential of Ae. albopictus towards mosquito species native to Germany, laboratory experiments were conducted with larvae of this species and indigenous Cx. pipiens complex species/biotypes. First instar larvae of Ae. albopictus and of one of the native taxa were exposed to different temperatures and fed with different food sources. The ratio of individuals developing into adults as well as the time the larvae needed for development were taken as a measure of competitive outcome. In addition, the size of emerging adults was compared between control and experimental groups. Regarding developmental time, no significant differences were found between treatments and controls while significant differences were found regarding developmental rate and average wing size of individuals. Because no evidence of competitive repression of the native species was found, Ae. albopictus cannot be included in the EU list of invasive species.

Mathematical model estimation of dengue fever transmission risk from Southeast and South Asia into Japan between 2016 and 2018

BACKGROUND

Dengue fever is a viral infection transmitted to humans through the bite of a mosquito infected with the dengue virus. Dengue is one of the most common infectious diseases in the world, and its incidence is rapidly increasing. We estimated the risk of dengue importation from endemic countries to Japan and the transmission risk within Japan using data collected between 2016 and 2018.

METHODS

We conducted simulations that included the number of reported dengue infections and travelers per month in ten countries in Southeast and South Asia.

RESULTS

The estimated importation risks for Japanese returnees and international travelers from each of the ten endemic countries was approximately 1.0 every month from 2016 to 2018. The autochthonous transmission risk in Japan from any target country was 1.0 from June to September yearly. The estimated number of Japanese dengue cases returning to Japan is approximately 25 times higher than that of imported cases reported in Japan.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of dengue importation into Japan can be sufficiently high. Attention should be paid to autochthonous transmission spread between June and September when mosquitoes are active in Japan. Estimates of seasonal risk variation from each dengue virus-endemic country can be used to inform preventive and control measures for dengue in Japan.

Population genetics of an invasive mosquito vector, Aedes albopictus in the Northeastern USA

The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) arrived in the USA in the 1980’s and rapidly spread throughout eastern USA within a decade. The predicted northern edge of its overwintering distribution on the East Coast of the USA roughly falls across New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts, where the species has been recorded as early as 2000. It is unclear whether Ae. albopictus populations have become established and survive the cold winters in these areas or are recolonized every year. We genotyped and analyzed populations of Ae. albopictus from the northeast USA using 15 microsatellite markers and compared them with other populations across the country and to representatives of the major global genetic clades to investigate their connectivity and stability. Founder effects or bottlenecks were rare at the northern range of the Ae. albopictus distribution in the northeastern USA, with populations displaying high levels of genetic diversity and connectivity along the East Coast. There is no evidence of population turnover in Connecticut during the course of three consecutive years, with consistent genetic structure throughout this period. Overall, these results support the presence of established populations of Ae. albopictus in New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts, successfully overwintering and migrating in large numbers. Given the stability and interconnectedness of these populations, Ae. albopictus has the potential to continue to proliferate and expand its range northward under mean warming conditions of climate change. Efforts to control Ae. albopictus in these areas should thus focus on vector suppression rather than eradication strategies, as local populations have become firmly established and are expected to reemerge every summer.

Quantifying the future risk of dengue under climate change in Japan

Background

In metropolitan Tokyo in 2014, Japan experienced its first domestic dengue outbreak since 1945. The objective of the present study was to quantitatively assess the future risk of dengue in Japan using climate change scenarios in a high-resolution geospatial environment by building on a solid theory as a baseline in consideration of future adaptation strategies.

Methods

Using climate change scenarios of the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 6 (MIROC6), representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, we computed the daily average temperature and embedded this in the effective reproduction number of dengue, R(T), to calculate the extinction probability and interepidemic period across Japan.

Results

In June and October, the R(T) with daily average temperature T, was <1 as in 2022; however, an elevation in temperature increased the number of days with R(T) >1 during these months under RCP8.5. The time period with a risk of dengue transmission gradually extended to late spring (April–May) and autumn (October–November). Under the RCP8.5 scenario in 2100, the possibility of no dengue-free months was revealed in part of southernmost Okinawa Prefecture, and the epidemic risk extended to the entire part of northernmost Hokkaido Prefecture.

Conclusion

Each locality in Japan must formulate action plans in response to the presented scenarios. Our geographic analysis can help local governments to develop adaptation policies that include mosquito breeding site elimination, distribution of adulticides and larvicides, and elevated situation awareness to prevent transmission via bites from Aedes vectors.

Multiple introductions and overwintering shape the progressive invasion of Aedes albopictus beyond the Alps

Aedes albopictus originates from Southeast Asia and is considered one of the most invasive species globally. This mosquito is a nuisance and a disease vector of significant public health relevance. In Europe, Ae. albopictus is firmly established and widespread south of the Alps, a mountain range that forms a formidable biogeographic barrier to many organisms. Recent reports of Ae. albopictus north of the Alps raise questions of (1) the origins of its recent invasion, and (2) if this mosquito has established overwintering populations north of the Alps. To answer these questions, we analyzed population genomic data from >4000 genome‐wide SNPs obtained through double‐digest restriction site‐associated DNA sequencing. We collected SNP data from specimens from six sites in Switzerland, north and south of the Alps, and analyzed them together with specimens from other 33 European sites, five from the Americas, and five from its Asian native range. At a global level, we detected four genetic clusters with specimens from Indonesia, Brazil, and Japan as the most differentiated, whereas specimens from Europe, Hong Kong, and USA largely overlapped. Across the Alps, we detected a weak genetic structure and high levels of genetic admixture, supporting a scenario of rapid and human‐aided dispersal along transportation routes. While the genetic pattern suggests frequent re‐introductions into Switzerland from Italian sources, the recovery of a pair of full siblings in two consecutive years in Strasbourg, France, suggests the presence of an overwintering population north of the Alps. The suggestion of overwintering populations of Ae. albopictus north of the Alps and the expansion patterns identified points to an increased risk of further northward expansion and the need for increased surveillance of mosquito populations in Northern Europe.

Snow-Covered Tires Generate Microhabitats That Enhance Overwintering Survival of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Midwest, USA

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus (Skuse), is a public health threat because it can potentially transmit multiple pathogenic arboviruses, exhibits aggressive diurnal biting, and is highly invasive. As Ae. albopictus moved northward into the United States, the limits of expansion were predicted as locations with a mean January temperature warmer than -2.5°C. We postulated that the range of Ae. albopictus could exceed these temperature limits if eggs in diapause overwinter in tires that provide an insulating effect from extreme temperatures. Fifteen tires with Ae. albopictus and Aedes triseriatus (Say) eggs, a native cold hardy species, were placed outside at five locations along a latitudinal gradient in Wisconsin and Illinois during the winter of 2018-2019; notably, in January 2019, a regional arctic air event brought the lowest temperatures recorded in over 20 yr. External and internal tire temperatures were recorded at 3 hr intervals, and egg survival was recorded after six months. Aedes albopictus eggs survived only from tires at northernmost locations. The mean internal January temperature of tires that supported survival was -1.8°C, while externally the mean temperature was -5.3°C, indicating that tires provided an average of +3.5°C of insulation. Tires that supported egg survival also had over 100 mm of snow cover during January. In the absence of snow cover, tires across the study area provided an average +0.79°C [95% CI 0.34-1.11] insulation. This work provides strong argument for the inclusion of microhabitats in models of dispersal and establishment of Ae. albopictus and other vector species.

Establishment, Genetic Diversity, and Habitat Suitability of Aedes albopictus Populations from Ecuador

Simple Summary

The tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is a vector of multiple viral diseases. Therefore, it is crucial to understand its distribution and the genetic diversity of Ecuadorian populations. This study used a genetic marker to understand aspects of the dynamics of the Ecuadorian populations of Aedes albopictus from five sites along the coastal, Amazon basin, and Andean lowland regions. Our results evidence two haplotypes within the Ecuadorian populations. Haplotype 1 was found in the coastal regions and Amazon basin, while haplotype 2 was found in the northeastern lowlands. Worldwide, haplotype 1 has been found in 21 countries in temperate and tropical habitats, and haplotype 2 has been found in five countries in tropical habitats. Hence, a difference in adaptation traits could be speculated between both haplotypes. Our study presents a prediction model that shows the suitable habitats for Aedes albopictus in Ecuador. Our results showed that the vector could spread through all country regions, including the Galapagos Islands. Thus, understanding the different aspects of the local populations can help establish better vector surveillance and control strategies.

Abstract

Aedes albopictus, also known as the tiger mosquito, is widespread worldwide across tropical, subtropical, and temperate regions. This insect is associated with the transmission of several vector-borne diseases, and, as such, monitoring its distribution is highly important for public health. In Ecuador, Ae. albopictus was first reported in 2017 in Guayaquil. Since then, the vector has been identified in the Northeastern lowlands and the Amazon basin. This study aims to determine the genetic diversity of Ecuadorian populations of Ae. albopictus through the analysis of the mitochondrial gene COI and to describe the potential distribution areas of this species within the country. The genetic diversity was determined by combining phylogenetic and population genetics analyses of five localities in Ecuador. Results showed two haplotypes in the Ecuadorian populations of Ae. albopictus. Haplotype 1 (H1) was found in the coastal and Amazon individuals, while haplotype 2 (H2) was only found in the three northeastern lowlands sites. In a worldwide context, H1 is the most widespread in 21 countries with temperate and tropical habitats. In contrast, H2 distribution is limited to five countries in tropical regions, suggesting fewer adaptation traits. Our prediction model showed a suitable habitat for Ae. albopictus in all regions (coastal, Amazon basin, and Andean lowland regions and the Galápagos Islands) of Ecuador. Hence, understanding different aspects of the vector can help us implement better control strategies for surveillance and vectorial control in Ecuador.

The tiger mosquito in Lebanon two decades after its introduction: A growing health concern

The tiger mosquito was introduced to the Eastern region of the Mediterranean basin more than twenty years ago. In Lebanon, it was first observed in 2002 in a limited number of locations mainly from the coastal area of the country. In the absence of national entomological control program, this invasive mosquito became an established species and is now considered in many localities, a source of nuisance because of its human biting behavior. Several entomological surveys were conducted to monitor the geographic spread and the seasonal dynamics of Aedes albopictus by collecting adult stages and by monitoring oviposition activity. Moreover, its susceptibility to the common groups of insecticides was assessed using WHO standard bioassays. Previous vector competence studies revealed that local strains were able to transmit Chikungunya and Dengue viruses. Due to the increased risk of Zika virus introduction in the country, we determined the competence of local populations to transmit this virus. Mapping results showed that Ae. albopictus is mainly spread in the relatively humid western versant of the Mount Lebanon chain reaching 1000m altitude, while it is absent from arid and semi-arid inland areas. Besides, this mosquito is active during 32 weeks from spring till the end of autumn. Local strains of the tiger mosquito are susceptible to pyrethroids and carbamates but resistant to organophosphates and organochlorines. They showed ability to transmit Zika virus; however, only 9% of females were capable to excrete the virus in their saliva at day 28 post infection. Current and previous observations highlight the need to establish a surveillance system in order to control this mosquito and monitor the potential introduction of related diseases.

Searching for a sign of exotic Aedes albopictus (Culicidae) introduction in major international seaports on Kyushu Island, Japan

Background

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, has spread around the world. The migration was mainly mediated by maritime transportations. This species is known as an efficient vector for arboviruses, and it was responsible for the recent dengue outbreak in Tokyo, Japan. As the vector competence varies among geographical populations, and insecticide resistant populations have emerged, it is important to reveal their movements. The present study uses molecular techniques to search for a sign of introduction of an exotic population in three major international seaports on Kyushu Island.

Methodology/principal findings

Adults of Ae. albopictus were sampled around the international seaports of Fukuoka, Kitakyushu, and Nagasaki. Pairwise fixation indexes were estimated between the sampled populations based on 13 microsatellite markers. There was no clear genetic differentiation between distant and port populations in Kitakyushu and Nagasaki. However, the analysis found one distinct group near the container terminal in Fukuoka, which handles international freight containers mainly from adjacent countries. DNA samples were also obtained from Goto, Tsushima, Honshu, Ryukyu, Thailand, and the Philippines; and a cluster analysis and discriminant analysis revealed that the distinct group in Fukuoka did not belong to these groups. Combined with the results of phylogenetic analysis based on CO1, these results implied that this group originated from one Asian temperate region outside of Japan. Neutrality test and mismatch distribution analysis suggested that the establishment of this group was not recent.

Conclusions/significance

The present study found a sign of Ae. albopictus introduction from a temperate region of Asia through maritime freight container transportation. The genetically distinct group found in Fukuoka likely originated from a temperate region outside of Japan. Maritime container transportation may introduce to Japan mosquitoes with greater vector competence/insecticide resistance. This is the first study to describe the spatial population structure of Ae. albopictus in Japan using molecular techniques.

Aedes albopictus is an invasive species and an efficient disease vector. The bioecological traits of this species and human-mediated transportations have fueled its worldwide spread. Because the levels of vector competence and insecticide resistance vary among geographical strains, the worldwide migration of this species is a concern for public health and vector control. While numerous studies have been done in non-native areas, within its native areas in Asia movements have not been explored. This study used molecular techniques to search for signs of introduction of an exotic population through three major international seaports on Kyushu Island, Japan. The present study found a genetically distinct group of Ae. albopictus near the container terminal in Fukuoka. The study suggests that its origin was one temperate region of East Asia outside of Japan, and the establishment of this group was not recent. As vector competence varies among different populations and the knock down resistance gene has been reported from some populations outside Japan, the risk of introducing mosquitoes with greater vector competence/insecticide resistance needs to be considered. This is the first study to describe the spatial population structure of Ae. albopictus in Japan using molecular techniques.

Analysis of international traveler mobility patterns in Tokyo to identify geographic foci of dengue fever risk

Travelers play a role in triggering epidemics of imported dengue fever because they can carry the virus to other countries during the incubation period. If a traveler carrying dengue virus visits open green space and is bitten by mosquitoes, a local outbreak can ensue. In the present study, we aimed to understand the movement patterns of international travelers in Tokyo using mobile phone data, with the goal of identifying geographical foci of dengue transmission. We analyzed datasets based on mobile phone access to WiFi systems and measured the spatial distribution of international visitors in Tokyo on two specific dates (one weekday in July 2017 and another weekday in August 2017). Mobile phone users were classified by nationality into three groups according to risk of dengue transmission. Sixteen national parks were selected based on their involvement in a 2014 dengue outbreak and abundance of Aedes mosquitoes. We found that not all national parks were visited by international travelers and that visits to cemeteries were very infrequent. We also found that travelers from countries with high dengue prevalence were less likely to visit national parks compared with travelers from dengue-free countries. Travelers from countries with sporadic dengue cases and countries with regional transmission tended to visit common destinations. By contrast, the travel footprints of visitors from countries with continuous dengue transmission were focused on non-green spaces. Entomological surveillance in Tokyo has been restricted to national parks since the 2014 dengue outbreak. However, our results indicate that areas subject to surveillance should include both public and private green spaces near tourist sites.

Seasonality and timing of peak abundance of <em>Aedes albopictus</em> in Europe: Implications to public and animal health

Aedes albopictus is a known vector of dengue and chikungunya. Understanding the population dynamics characteristics of vector species is of pivotal importance to optimise surveillance and control activities, to estimate risk for pathogen-transmission, and thus to enhance support of public health decisions. In this paper we used a seasonal activity model to simulate the start (spring hatching) and end (autumn diapause) of the vector season. In parallel, the peak abundance of the species was assessed using both VectorNet field survey data complemented with field studies obtained from literature across the Mediterranean Basin. Our results suggest that spring hatching of eggs in the current distribution area can start at the beginning of March in southern Europe and in April in western Europe. In northern Europe, where the species is not (yet) present, spring hatching would occur from late April to late May. Aedes albopictus can remain active up to 41 weeks in southern Europe whilst the climatic conditions in northern Europe are limiting its potential activity to a maximum of 23 weeks. The peak of egg density is found during summer months from end of July until end of September. During these two months the climatic conditions for species development are optimal, which implies a higher risk for arbovirus transmission by Ae. albopictus and occurrence of epidemics.

Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) Monitoring in the Lazio Region (Central Italy)

The Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus (Skuse 1894) is assuming an ever-increasing importance as invasive species in Europe and consequently as human health and nuisance concern. In Central Italy, the species has been recently involved in a chikungunya outbreak. A 3 yr Ae. albopictus monitoring was carried out in 21 municipalities of the Lazio region (Central Italy), belonging to three provinces. Samplings were performed on a weekly basis using ovitraps, in order to investigate climatic and spatial variables driving egg abundance and Ae. albopictus period of activity. A temperature of 10.4°C was indicated as lower threshold for the onset of egg-laying activity, together with a photoperiod of 13:11 (L:D) h. The whole oviposition activity lasted 8 mo (May-December), with 95% of eggs laid between early June and mid-November and a peak at the end of August. Egg abundance was positively influenced by accumulated temperature (AT) of the 4 wk preceding sampling and negatively by precipitation during the week before. Egg-laying activity dropped with decreasing AT, increasing rainfall, and with a photoperiod below 10:14 (L:D) h. Our results pinpointed the importance of fine-scaled spatial features on egg abundance. Some of these fine-scaled characteristics have been highlighted, such as the presence of vegetation and human footprint index. Our model estimated an almost doubled maximum number of laid eggs for the maximum value of human footprint. Compelling evidence of the relevance of fine-scaled characteristics was reported, describing cases where human-made breeding sites driven the abundance of Ae. albopictus.

Reproductive interference between Aedes albopictus and Aedes flavopictus at a place of their origin

Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus and Aedes (Stegomyia) flavopictus are related species that have overlapping distributions from southern to central Japan. To understand how they interact, we studied reproductive interference between them, particularly focusing on the body size difference between the mating pair. Here, we examined the effects of conspecific, heterospecific and double mating (i.e. heterospecific mating followed by conspecific mating) on copulation duration, egg production and hatchability of eggs using mosquitoes that varied in body size. Females mated only with heterospecific males produced few viable eggs, indicating that post-mating isolation is almost complete. When mated with heterospecific males before conspecific mating, the production of viable eggs was lower than when mated only with conspecific males, revealing the occurrence of reproductive interference. The degree of reproductive interference was larger in Ae. flavopictus than in Ae. albopictus when the female size was small but did not differ between them when the female size was large. Aedes albopictus females appear to be able to distinguish Ae. flavopictus males from conspecific males and larger females are more successful in the rejection of heterospecific males. On the other hand, Ae. flavopictus were not able to discriminate between conspecific and heterospecific males.

Analysis of the Arbovirosis Potential Occurrence in Dobrogea, Romania

Climate change creates new challenges for preventing and protecting human health against different diseases that could appear and propagate. The Aedes albopictus mosquito species is an important vector for different diseases like dengue fever or zika. Although this species is not “indigenous” in Europe, its presence is noticed in many countries on the continent. The Ae. albopictus establishment is conditioned by the species’ characteristics and environmental factors. To assess the possible spread of Ae. albopictus in the Dobrogea region (situated in the Southeast of Romania), we conducted the following analysis: (1) Investigation of the current distribution and climatic factors favoring Ae. albopictus’ establishment in Europe; (2) Analysis of climate dynamics in Dobrogea in terms of the parameters identified at stage (1); (3) Testing the hypothesis that the climate from Dobrogea favors Ae. albopictus’ establishment in the region; (4) Building a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based model of the potential geographic distribution of Ae. albopictus in Dobrogea. Results show that the climate of Dobrogea favors the apparition of the investigated species and its proliferation.

Low temperature tolerance of three Aedes albopictus strains (Diptera: Culicidae) under constant and fluctuating temperature scenarios

Background

Aedes albopictus, a vector of numerous viruses and filarial worms, has already established in 20 countries in Europe, mainly colonising subtropical regions. Continuing adaptation to climatic conditions in temperate areas would probably result in a spread to more northern European countries, producing an increasing risk of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission over a much greater area. Based on previous studies showing that Ae. albopictus is able to overwinter in Germany, this study aims to determine more exactly its ecological limits of enduring low temperatures.

Methods

Non-diapausing and experimentally induced diapausing eggs of three different Ae. albopictus strains (tropical, subtropical and temperate origins) were exposed to four different regimes with constant temperatures and three different regimes with fluctuating temperatures in a course of a day for a minimum of 2 and a maximum of 30 days. The hatching rate of larvae after cold exposure of the eggs was taken as a measure of cold tolerance.

Results

The experiments showed that the tropical Ae. albopictus strain had a lower cold tolerance than the subtropical and the temperate strains. The eggs of all used strains were able to survive constant temperatures as low as −5 °C for an exposure period of 30 days, while constant temperatures as low as −10 °C were endured for 2 days by the tropical strain and for 10 and 20 days by the subtropical and temperate strains, respectively. At fluctuating temperatures, both the subtropical and the temperate strains exhibited hatching under all temperature regimes, even with a minimum temperature of −10 °C, whereas the tropical strain ceased hatching after an exposure period of 30 days under the temperature regime with a minimum temperature of −10 °C. The analyses showed that the temperature played the major role in interpreting the hatching rates of the eggs. The condition, whether the eggs were diapausing or not, had no significant influence, although results indicated a slightly higher cold tolerance of diapausing eggs at −10 °C.

Conclusions

It must be expected that subtropical and temperate strains of Ae. albopictus are able to withstand common central European winters and are able to establish in considerable parts of the continent.

The 2014 autochthonous dengue fever outbreak in Tokyo: A case series study and assessment of the causes and preventive measures

Objective

In 2014, an autochthonous dengue fever outbreak occurred around the Yoyogi Park in Japan for the first time in 70 years. Despite no local cases reported since then, the risk of another outbreak remains high. This study reviews the autochthonous dengue fever cases of the outbreak, investigates its causes, and delineates preventive measures against autochthonous dengue epidemics.

Methods

We conducted a case series study of 15 patients who visited our institution during the 2014 outbreak. We collected and evaluated data on the surveillance of vector mosquitoes, weather, pest control, travelers’ origins and destinations, and imported dengue fever cases using reports made by public institutions.

Results

All patients recovered with supportive treatments and none met the diagnostic criteria for severe dengue infection. Twelve patients with positive real-time polymerase chain reactions were confirmed as having dengue virus-1 infections. We found no obvious associations between the number of mosquitoes and the weather, or between the number of imported dengue fever cases and that of travelers. Insect growth regulator (IGR) against vector mosquitoes has been used since 2014 for pest control, but the number of larvae has not declined in the Yoyogi Park, although that of imagoes has been relatively suppressed.

Conclusion

The 2014 outbreak emerged without particularly favorable climate conditions for vector mosquitoes. We found no obvious associations between the number of travelers or the imported dengue fever cases and the outbreak, but the increasing number of travelers may contribute to another outbreak. Pest control, including IGR, remains essential for infection control.

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We studied 15 patients with autochthonous dengue fever during a local outbreak.

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This outbreak emerged without favorable climate conditions for mosquitoes.

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There were no increased number of travelers or imported dengue cases.

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Pest control using insect growth regulator can be effective for infection control.

Aedes albopictus and Aedes flavopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) pre-imaginal abundance patterns are associated with different environmental factors along an altitudinal gradient

Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) is a major global invasive mosquito species that, in Japan, co-occurs with Aedes (Stegomyia) flavopictus Yamada, a closely related species recently intercepted in Europe. Here, we present results of a detailed 25-month long study where we biweekly sampled pupae and fourth instar larvae of these two species from ovitraps set along Mt. Konpira, Nagasaki, Japan. This setting allowed us to ask whether these species had different responses to changes in environmental variables along the altitudinal gradient of an urban hill. We found that spatially Ae. albopictus abundance decreased, while Ae. flavopictus abundance increased, the further away from urban land. Ae. flavopictus also was more abundant than Ae. albopictus in locations with homogenous vegetation growth with a high mean Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), platykurtic EVI, and low SD in canopy cover, while Ae. albopictus was more abundant than Ae. flavopictus in areas with more variable (high SD) canopy cover. Moreover, Ae. flavopictus abundance negatively impacted the spatial abundance of Ae. albopictus. Temporally we found that Ae. flavopictus was more likely to be present in Mt. Konpira at lower temperatures than Ae. albopictus. Our results suggest that spatial and temporal abundance patterns of these two mosquito species are partially driven by their different response to environmental factors.

Synchrony of globally invasive Aedes spp. immature mosquitoes along an urban altitudinal gradient in their native range

Mosquito-borne infections often have concerted peaks, or are synchronous, across landscapes. This phenomenon might be driven by vector responses to similar environmental conditions that synchronize their abundance. While adult mosquito populations can be synchronous over spatial scales ranging from a few meters to a few kilometers, little to nothing is known about immature mosquito synchrony, including its relationship with mosquito colonization and persistence in larval habitats. Here, we present results from a 2-yearlong synchrony study in co-occurring populations of Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse), Aedes (Stegomyia) flavopictus Yamada and Aedes (Finlaya) japonicus japonicus (Theobald), three invasive mosquito species, along an urban altitudinal gradient in Japan. We found that Ae. albopictus was asynchronous while Ae. flavopictus and Ae. j. japonicus had synchrony that, respectively, tracked geographic and altitudinal patterns of temperature correlation. Spatially, Ae. albopictus was more persistent at hotter locations near urban land use, while Ae. j. japonicus and Ae. flavopictus increasingly persisted farther away from urban land. Temporally, Ae. albopicus and Ae. flavopictus decreased the proportion of colonized habitats following variable rainfall, while Ae. j. japonicus increased with vegetation growth and leptokurtic temperatures. Our results support the hypothesis that immature mosquito synchrony is autonomous from dispersal and driven by common environmental conditions.

Current and Projected Distributions of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus in Canada and the U.S

BACKGROUND

Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are mosquito vectors of more than 22 arboviruses that infect humans.

OBJECTIVES

Our objective was to develop regional ecological niche models for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the conterminous United States and Canada with current observed and simulated climate and land-use data using boosted regression trees (BRTs).

METHODS

We used BRTs to assess climatic suitability for Ae. albopictus and Ae. aegypti mosquitoes in Canada and the United States under current and future projected climates.

RESULTS

Models for both species were mostly influenced by minimum daily temperature and demonstrated high accuracy for predicting their geographic ranges under the current climate. The northward range expansion of suitable niches for both species was projected under future climate models. Much of the United States and parts of southern Canada are projected to be suitable for both species by 2100, with Ae. albopictus projected to expand its range north earlier this century and further north than Ae. aegypti.

DISCUSSION

Our projections suggest that the suitable ecological niche for Aedes will expand with climate change in Canada and the United States, thus increasing the risk of Aedes-transmitted arboviruses. Increased surveillance for these vectors and the pathogens they carry would be prudent. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5899.

Habitat suitability modelling to assess the introductions of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Netherlands

Background

In the Netherlands, Aedes albopictus has been found each year since 2010 during routine exotic mosquito species surveillance at companies that import used tires. We developed habitat suitability models to investigate the potential risk of establishment and spread of this invasive species at these locations.

Methods

We used two methodologies: first, a species distribution model based on the maximum entropy modelling approach (MaxEnt) taking into consideration updated occurrence data of the species in Europe, and secondly, a spatial logic conditional model based on the temperature requirements of the species and using land surface temperature data (LST model).

Results

Suitability assessment obtained with the MaxEnt model at European level accurately reflect the current distribution of the species and these results also depict moderately low values in parts of the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, the British islands and southern parts of Scandinavia. Winter temperature was the variable that contributed most to the performance of the model (47.3%). The results of the LST model showed that: (i) coastal areas are suitable for overwintering of eggs; (ii) large areas in the northern part of the country have a low suitability for adult survival; and (iii) the entire country is suitable for successful completion of the life-cycle if the species is introduced after the winter months. Results of the LST model revealed that temperatures in 2012 and 2014 did not limit the overwintering of eggs or survival of adults at the locations where the species was found. By contrast, for the years 2010, 2011 and 2013, overwintering of eggs at these locations is considered unlikely.

Conclusions

Results using two modelling methodologies show differences in predicted habitat suitability values. Based on the results of both models, the climatic conditions could hamper the successful overwintering of eggs of Ae. albopictus and their survival as adults in many areas of the country. However, during warm years with mild winters, many areas of the Netherlands offer climatic conditions suitable for developing populations. Regular updates of the models, using updated occurrence and climatic data, are recommended to study the areas at risk.

Elevational Distribution of the Asian Tiger Mosquito, Aedes albopictus, in the Inland Mountain Area of Nagano and Yamanashi Prefectures, Japan

Nagano and Yamanashi prefectures of Japan comprise an inland mountain area that extends widely north and south, with elevation varying greatly by location. Mosquitoes transmitting infectious disease have a diversity of habitats in Nagano and Yamanashi, and many species can be expected there. However, there have been few reports on mosquito fauna; in particular, little information is available on mosquitoes such as Aedes albopictus. The mosquito fauna was investigated to clarify their elevational distribution ranging from 317 to 1,534 m, focusing especially on Ae. albopictus, in 24 areas in Nagano and Yamanashi prefectures from July to September in 2012-16. Adult mosquitoes were collected using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention traps in each area, in addition to larval mosquito collections at several temple and shrine precincts in each area. At sites where elevations were >800 m (14 sites), no adult Ae. albopictus were captured. In addition, larval Ae. albopictus were not collected at elevations >728 m (15 sites). Aedes albopictus was captured at 20 other sites (annual mean air temperature ranged from 9.4 to 15.2°C, July-September mean air temperature ranged from 19.9 to 25.0°C).

Development and calibration of a model for the potential establishment and impact of Aedes albopictus in Europe

The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is one of the most invasive disease vectors worldwide. The species is a competent vector of dengue, chikungunya, Zika viruses and other severe parasites and pathogens threatening human health. The capacity of this mosquito to colonize and establish in new areas (including temperate regions) is enhanced by its ability of producing diapausing eggs that survive relatively cold winters. The main drivers of population dynamics for this mosquito are water and air temperature and photoperiod. In this paper, we present a mechanistic model that predicts the potential distribution, abundance and activity of Asian tiger mosquito in Europe. The model includes a comprehensive description of: i) the individual life-history strategies, including diapause, ii) the influence of weather-driven individual physiological responses on population dynamics and iii) the density-dependent regulation of larval mortality rate. The model is calibrated using field data from several locations along an altitudinal gradient in the Italian Alps, which enabled accurate prediction of cold temperature effects on population abundance, including identification of conditions that prevent overwintering of the species. Model predictions are consistent with the most updated information on species' presence and absence. Predicted population abundance shows a clear south-north decreasing gradient. A similar yet less evident pattern in the activity of the species is also predicted. The model represents a valuable tool for the development of strategies aimed at the management of Ae. albopictus and for the implementation of effective control measures against vector-borne diseases in Europe.

Seasonality modeling of the distribution of Aedes albopictus in China based on climatic and environmental suitability

Background

Aedes albopictus is a highly invasive mosquito species and a major vector of numerous viral pathogens. Many recent dengue fever outbreaks in China have been caused solely by the vector. Mapping of the potential distribution ranges of Ae. albopictus is crucial for epidemic preparedness and the monitoring of vector populations for disease control. Climate is a key factor influencing the distribution of the species. Despite field studies indicating seasonal population variations, very little modeling work has been done to analyze how environmental conditions influence the seasonality of Ae. albopictus. The aim of the present study was to develop a model based on available observations, climatic and environmental data, and machine learning methods for the prediction of the potential seasonal ranges of Ae. albopictus in China.

Methods

We collected comprehensive up-to-date surveillance data in China, particularly records from the northern distribution margin of Ae. albopictus. All records were assigned long-term (1970–2000) climatic data averages based on the WorldClim 2.0 data set. Machine learning regression tree models were developed using a 10-fold cross-validation method to predict the potential seasonal (or monthly) distribution ranges of Ae. albopictus in China at high resolution based on environmental conditions. The models were assessed based on sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy, using area under curve (AUC). WorldClim 2.0 and climatic and environmental data were used to produce environmental conduciveness (probability) prediction surfaces. Predicted probabilities were generated based on the averages of the 10 models.

Results

During 1998–2017, Ae. albopictus was observed at 200 out of the 242 localities surveyed. In addition, at least 15 new Ae. albopictus occurrence sites lay outside the potential ranges that have been predicted using models previously. The average accuracy was 98.4% (97.1–99.5%), and the average AUC was 99.1% (95.6–99.9%). The predicted Ae. albopictus distribution in winter (December–February) was limited to a small subtropical-tropical area of China, and Ae. albopictus was predicted to occur in northern China only during the short summer season (usually June–September). The predicted distribution areas in summer could reach northeastern China bordering Russia and the eastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in southwestern China. Ae. albopictus could remain active in expansive areas from central to southern China in October and November.

Conclusions

Climate and environmental conditions are key factors influencing the seasonal distribution of Ae. albopictus in China. The areas predicted to potentially host Ae. albopictus seasonally in the present study could reach northeastern China and the eastern slope of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Our results present new evidence and suggest the expansion of systematic vector population monitoring activities and regular re-assessment of epidemic risk potential.

Surveillance of Culicoides biting midges in northern Honshu, Japan, during the period of Akabane virus spread

A surveillance of Culicoides biting midges with light suction traps was conducted in the northern region of Honshu, main island of Japan, during the summers and autumns of 2009 and 2010. A total of 106 trap collections across 37 cattle farms were investigated for the structure and distribution of Culicoides species. Forty-thousand and one hundred forty-nine specimens of Culicoides biting midges were identified at the species level, and ≥19 species were included in the specimens. Culicoides oxystoma, which is a known major vector of Akabane virus (AKAV), appeared not to have expanded in northern Honshu during the surveillance. Of the potential AKAV vectors suggested by a previous laboratory experiment, C. tainanus and C. punctatus widely infested cowsheds across northern Honshu. The AKAV circulation was confirmed by serological surveillance of sentinel cattle in northern Honshu during the summer and autumn of 2010 and, consequently, >200 calves affected by the virus were identified as of spring 2011. Our surveillance demonstrated that C. tainanus and C. punctatus were widely spread and often dominated at cattle farms in/around the seroconverted regions, and our results thus suggest that these species played a critical role in the AKAV transmission in 2010. Because the distribution ranges of C. tainanus and C. punctatus cover almost all of mainland Japan, a potential risk of AKAV transmission might be expected even in areas outside the range of C. oxystoma.

Consensus and uncertainty in the geographic range of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in the contiguous United States: Multi-model assessment and synthesis

Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.) and Ae. (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) mosquitoes can transmit dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika viruses. Limited surveillance has led to uncertainty regarding the geographic ranges of these vectors globally, and particularly in regions at the present-day margins of habitat suitability such as the contiguous United States. Empirical habitat suitability models based on environmental conditions can augment surveillance gaps to describe the estimated potential species ranges, but model accuracy is unclear. We identified previously published regional and global habitat suitability models for Ae. aegypti (n = 6) and Ae. albopictus (n = 8) for which adequate information was available to reproduce the models for the contiguous U.S. Using a training subset of recently updated county-level surveillance records of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus and records of counties conducting surveillance, we constructed accuracy-weighted, probabilistic ensemble models from these base models. To assess accuracy and uncertainty we compared individual and ensemble model predictions of species presence or absence to both training and testing data. The ensemble models were among the most accurate and also provided calibrated probabilities of presence for each species. The quantitative probabilistic framework enabled identification of areas with high uncertainty and model bias across the U.S. where improved models or additional data could be most beneficial. The results may be of immediate utility for counties considering surveillance and control programs for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Moreover, the assessment framework can drive future efforts to provide validated quantitative estimates to support these programs at local, national, and international scales.

Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes can transmit dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika viruses, yet because of limited data the edges of the geographic range of these important species remain uncertain. We assessed numerous previously published model-based estimates of the range of these mosquitoes in the United States and combined those models to produce calibrated estimates of the probability of finding each mosquito in each county. Comparing these estimates to county-level data, we found that there are areas of substantial uncertainty and specific areas where model-based predictions do not align well with available data. The results provide specific information that can help guide national- or state-level efforts to monitor and control Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Beyond the specific findings, this approach to leveraging limited data and multiple quantitative models can be employed in other settings to better characterize the distribution of these species and other medically important vectors globally.

Intercepted Mosquitoes at New Zealand's Ports of Entry, 2001 to 2018: Current Status and Future Concerns

Mosquito vectors are extending their range via international travel and trade. Climate change makes New Zealand an increasingly suitable environment for less tropically adapted exotic mosquito vectors to become established. This shift will add a multiplier effect to existing risks of both the establishment of new species and of resident exotic species extending into new areas. We describe trends in the border interceptions of exotic mosquitoes and evaluate the role of imported goods as a pathway for these introductions. Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, the two most commonly intercepted species, were only intercepted in Auckland. Used tyres and machinery were the main mode of entry for both species. The majority of Ae. albopictus were transported as larvae by sea, while most Ae. aegypti were transported as adults by air. Continuing introductions of these mosquitoes, mainly arriving via Japan or Australia, increase the risk of the local transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in New Zealand in general and in the Auckland region in particular. These findings reinforce the need for a high performing and adequately resourced national biosecurity system, particularly port surveillance and inspection. Recommended biosecurity improvements are described.

Assessing dengue control in Tokyo, 2014

Background

In summer 2014, an autochthonous outbreak of dengue occurred in Tokyo, Japan, in which Yoyogi Park acted as the focal area of transmission. Recognizing the outbreak, concerted efforts were made to control viral spread, which included mosquito control, public announcement of the outbreak, and a total ban on entering the park. We sought to assess the effectiveness of these control measures.

Methodology/Principal findings

We used a mathematical model to describe the transmission dynamics. Using dates of exposure and illness onset, we categorized cases into three groups according to the availability of these datasets. The infection process was parametrically modeled by generation, and convolution of the infection process and the incubation period was fitted to the data. By estimating the effective reproduction number, we determined that the effect of dengue risk communication together with mosquito control from 28 August 2014 was insufficiently large to lower the reproduction number to below 1. However, once Yoyogi Park was closed on 4 September, the value of the effective reproduction number began to fall below 1, and the associated relative reduction in the effective reproduction number was estimated to be 20%–60%. The mean incubation period was an estimated 5.8 days.

Conclusions/Significance

Regardless of the assumed number of generations of cases, the combined effect of mosquito control, risk communication, and park closure appeared to be successful in interrupting the chain of dengue transmission in Tokyo.

Evaluating the interventions implemented during an outbreak of mosquito-borne disease is of utmost importance, offering lessons for future control strategies. By retrospectively analyzing data of the first autochthonous dengue epidemic of the 21st century in Tokyo, Japan, we assessed the effectiveness of the interventions. Once a dengue outbreak was confirmed in late August 2014, the government of Japan took drastic mosquito control measures, targeting both adults and larvae. News of the outbreak was also widely disseminated via mass media along with experts’ recommendations as to how people could avoid the risks of dengue infection. As the outbreak was not immediately controlled, the focal area of transmission, Yoyogi Park, was closed on 4 September. Using a mathematical model, we assessed how well dengue virus transmission was intervened in relation to the start times of interventions. As we incorporated precise timing into the model, we directly modeled the time of infection and accounted for the time delay from infection to illness onset. Thus, we revealed that mosquito control and risk communication measures alone could not interrupt the chain of transmission; however, adding park closure to these interventions was substantially effective in reducing the number of transmissions.

The Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Central Germany: Surveillance in its northernmost distribution area

The invasive Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus has recently been observed in southern Germany for the first time to reproduce and even overwinter north of the Alps. After the accidental capture of adult specimens in Jena, German federal state of Thuringia, in mid-2015, regular inspections brought forth developmental stages until autumn 2015, indicating local reproduction. Surveillance activities implemented in 2016 showed larvae already in early May, suggesting overwintering, and throughout the season until late October, although population densities remained low. Further sporadic specimens found in 2017 argue for establishment. Jena is located in Central Germany, north of all known distribution areas of Ae. albopictus, with the area of the municipality affected by the tiger mosquito characterised by a relatively mild climate. To check the suitability of the local climate for Ae. albopictus, winter temperatures, measured in a cemetery of Jena where larvae had regularly been found in 2015 and 2016, were analysed and compared with two sites of establishment in southern Germany. The conditions were similar at all three locations, suggesting that the Jena population might also be able to survive in the long term. While the municipality authorities have been informed and education of the Jena citizens to avoid producing potential breeding places has started, insecticidal control has not yet been implemented.

Expected Changes of Montenegrin Climate, Impact on the Establishment and Spread of the Asian Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus), and Validation of the Model and Model-Based Field Sampling

Aedes albopictus has become established in many parts of Europe since its introduction at the end of the 20th century. It can vector a range of arboviruses, of which Chikungunya and Dengue are most significant for Europe. An analysis of the expected climate change and the related shift in Köppen zones for Montenegro and impact on the establishment of Ae. albopictus was conducted. Outputs of a mechanistic Aedes albopictus model were validated by 2245 presence/absence records collected from 237 different sites between 2001 and 2014. Finally, model-based sampling was designed and performed at 48 sites in 2015, in a previously unexplored northern part of Montenegro, and results were validated. The Eta Belgrade University (EBU)-Princeton Ocean Model (POM) regional climate model was used with the A2 emissions scenario for the 2001–2030 and 2071–2100 integration periods. The results point to a significant increase in suitability for the mosquito and a vertical shift to higher altitudes by the end of the century. The model showed excellent results with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.94. This study provides a tool for prioritizing surveillance efforts (model-based surveillance), especially when resources are limited. This is the first published analysis of Climate Change that incorporates observations from the national synoptic grid and the subsequent impact on Ae. albopictus in Montenegro.

Effects of the Environmental Temperature on Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus Mosquitoes: A Review

The temperature of the environment is one of the most important abiotic factors affecting the life of insects. As poikilotherms, their body temperature is not constant, and they rely on various strategies to minimize the risk of thermal stress. They have been thus able to colonize a large spectrum of habitats. Mosquitoes, such as Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, vector many pathogens, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. The spread of these diseases has become a major global health concern, and it is predicted that climate change will affect the mosquitoes’ distribution, which will allow these insects to bring new pathogens to naïve populations. We synthesize here the current knowledge on the impact of temperature on the mosquito flight activity and host-seeking behavior (1); ecology and dispersion (2); as well as its potential effect on the pathogens themselves and how climate can affect the transmission of some of these pathogens (3).

Dengue outbreaks and the geographic distribution of dengue vectors in Taiwan: A 20-year epidemiological analysis

Dengue fever is an important mosquito-borne viral infectious disease that mostly occurs in tropical and subtropical areas of the world. According to epidemiological data from the Center for Disease Control of Taiwan, more than 98.62% of outbreaks of indigenous total dengue cases were reported in the southern part of Taiwan. Southern Taiwan is an aggregate area encompassing Tainan, Kaohsiung, and Pingtung, all of which are located below the Tropic of Cancer (23º35'N). With a few exceptions, dengue outbreaks mainly occur in southern Taiwan which is highly associated or overlaps with the prevalence of Aedes aegypti. A.aegypti is presumed to be absent from the northern part of Taiwan, while Aedes albopictus breeds in areas throughout the island. According a collection of 20 years of epidemiological data from Taiwan, the inability of A. aegypti to survive the winter weather in northern Taiwan may account for its restricted geographical distribution and that of dengue outbreaks it transmits. A.aegypti, unlike temperate strains of A. albopictus, lacks embryonic diapause signaled by a short photoperiod which thus reduces its cold-hardiness. Therefore it is intolerant of low temperatures that frequently accompany rains and unable to survive during winter in the northern part of Taiwan.

Determining environmental and anthropogenic factors which explain the global distribution of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus

Background

Responsible for considerable global human morbidity and mortality, Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the primary vectors of several important human diseases, including dengue and yellow fever. Although numerous variables that affect mosquito survival and reproduction have been recorded at the local and regional scales, many remain untested at the global level, potentially confounding mapping efforts to date.

Methods

We develop a modelling ensemble of boosted regression trees and maximum entropy models using sets of variables previously untested at the global level to examine their performance in predicting the global distribution of these two vectors. The results show that accessibility, absolute humidity and annual minimum temperature are consistently the strongest predictors of mosquito presence. Both vectors are similar in their response to accessibility and humidity, but exhibit individual profiles for temperature. Their mapped ranges are therefore similar except at peripheral latitudes, where the range of Ae. albopictus extends further, a finding consistent with ongoing trapping studies. We show that variables previously identified as being relevant, including maximum and mean temperatures, enhanced vegetation index, relative humidity and population density, are comparatively weak performers.

Results

The variables identified represent three key biological mechanisms. Cold tolerance is a critical biological parameter, controlling both species' distribution northwards, and to a lesser degree for Ae. albopictus which has consequent greater inland suitability in North America, Europe and East Asia. Absolute humidity restricts the distribution of both vectors from drier areas, where moisture availability is very low, and increases their suitability in coastal areas. The latter is exacerbated by accessibility with increased likelihood of vector importation due to greater potential for human and trade movement.

Conclusion

Accessibility, absolute humidity and annual minimum temperatures were the strongest and most robust global predictors of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus presence, which should be considered in control efforts and future distribution projections.

Assessment of Aedes albopictus reference genes for quantitative PCR at different stages of development

Members of the Aedes genus of mosquitoes are widely recognized as vectors of viral diseases. Ae.albopictus is its most invasive species, and are known to carry viruses such as Dengue, Chikugunya and Zika. Its emerging importance puts Ae.albopictus on the forefront of genetic interaction and evolution studies. However, a panel of suitable reference genes specific for this insect is as of now undescribed. Nine reference genes, namely ACT, eEF1-γ, eIF2α, PP2A, RPL32, RPS17, PGK1, ILK and STK were evaluated. Expression patterns of the candidate reference genes were observed in a total of seventeen sample types, separated by stage of development and age. Gene stability was inferred from obtained quantification data through three widely cited evaluation algorithms i.e. BestKeeper, geNorm, and NormFinder. No single gene showed a satisfactory degree of stability throughout all developmental stages. Therefore, we propose combinations of PGK and ILK for early embryos; RPL32 and RPS17 for late embryos, all four larval instars, and pupae samples; eEF1-γ with STK for adult males; eEF1-γ with RPS17 for non-blood fed females; and eEF1-γ with eIF2α for both blood-fed females and cell culture. The results from this study should be able to provide a more informed selection of normalizing genes during qPCR in Ae.albopictus.

Forecasting the spatial and seasonal dynamic of Aedes albopictus oviposition activity in Albania and Balkan countries

The increasing spread of the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, in Europe and US raises public health concern due to the species competence to transmit several exotic human arboviruses, among which dengue, chikungunya and Zika, and urges the development of suitable modeling approach to forecast the spatial and temporal distribution of the mosquito. Here we developed a dynamical species distribution modeling approach forecasting Ae. albopictus eggs abundance at high spatial (0.01 degree WGS84) and temporal (weekly) resolution over 10 Balkan countries, using temperature times series of Modis data products and altitude as input predictors. The model was satisfactorily calibrated and validated over Albania based observed eggs abundance data weekly monitored during three years. For a given week of the year, eggs abundance was mainly predicted by the number of eggs and the mean temperature recorded in the preceding weeks. That is, results are in agreement with the biological cycle of the mosquito, reflecting the effect temperature on eggs spawning, maturation and hatching. The model, seeded by initial egg values derived from a second model, was then used to forecast the spatial and temporal distribution of eggs abundance over the selected Balkan countries, weekly in 2011, 2012 and 2013. The present study is a baseline to develop an easy-handling forecasting model able to provide information useful for promoting active surveillance and possibly prevention of Ae. albopictus colonization in presently non-infested areas in the Balkans as well as in other temperate regions.

The Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus, originating from Asia, in the last decade has spread in many regions in Europe and US. Beside the nuisance problem causing to the citizens during the day, this species has raised public health concern, due to its strict association with humans and anthropic habitats, its expanding distribution and its capacities to transmit several human arboviruses. We developed a spatio-temporal model of Ae. albopictus dynamics that helps to understand the biology and the ecology of the species in relation to environmental factors, and to inform efficient control strategies. Here we developed a dynamical species distribution modeling approach at high spatial (over the Balkans) and temporal resolution (weekly scale), enabling to link oviposition activities and climatic conditions across different time periods to forecast the potential future oviposition activities of Ae. albopictus in unknown locations or identify target areas and periods of highest activities. Extrapolating Ae. albopictus abundance over the Balkan region may help to identify habitat suitability where the species has never been reported so far. The temperature-related predictors remain the most determinant predictors among all candidate predictors e.g land cover and rainfall. The model provides useful information for promoting active surveillance on Ae. albopictus and assessing the risk of exotic arbovirus transmission in temperate regions.

Thermal experiments with the Asian bush mosquito (Aedes japonicus japonicus) (Diptera: Culicidae) and implications for its distribution in Germany

Background

As ectothermic animals, temperature influences insects in almost every aspect. The potential disease spreading Asian bush mosquito (Aedes japonicus japonicus) is native to temperate East Asia but invasive in several parts of the world. We report on the previously poorly understood temperature-dependence of its life history under laboratory conditions to understand invasion processes and to model temperature niches.

Results

To evaluate winter survival, eggs were exposed between 1 day and 14 days to low temperatures (5 °C, 0 °C, -5 °C and -9 °C). Hatching success was drastically decreased after exposure to 0 °C and -5 °C, and the minimal hatching success of 0% was reached at -9 °C after two days. We then exposed larvae to 14 temperatures and assessed their life trait parameters. Larval survival to adulthood was only possible between 10 °C and 31 °C. Based on this, we modelled the optimal (25 °C), minimal (7 °C) and maximal (31 °C) temperature for cumulative female survival. The time to adult emergence ranges from 12 days to 58 days depending on temperature. We used an age-at-emergence-temperature model to calculate the number of potential generations per year for the Asian bush mosquito in Germany with an average of 4.72 potential generations. At lower temperatures, individuals grew larger than at higher temperatures with female R1 length ranging from 3.04 ± 0.1 mm at 31 °C to 4.26 ± 0.2 mm at 15 °C.

Conclusions

Reduced egg hatch after exposure to sub-zero temperatures prohibits the establishment of the Asian bush mosquito in large parts of Germany. Larval overwintering is not possible at temperature ≤ 5 °C. The many potential generations displayed per year may contribute to the species’ invasion success. This study on the thermal ecology of the Asian bush mosquito adds to our knowledge on the temperature dependence of the species and data could be incorporated in epidemiological and population dynamic modelling.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-018-2659-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Mapping the spatial distribution of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus

Mosquito-borne infectious diseases, such as Rift Valley fever, Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika, have caused mass human death with the transnational expansion fueled by economic globalization. Simulating the distribution of the disease vectors is of great importance in formulating public health planning and disease control strategies. In the present study, we simulated the global distribution of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus at a 5×5km spatial resolution with high-dimensional multidisciplinary datasets and machine learning methods Three relatively popular and robust machine learning models, including support vector machine (SVM), gradient boosting machine (GBM) and random forest (RF), were used. During the fine-tuning process based on training datasets of A. aegypti and A. albopictus, RF models achieved the highest performance with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.973 and 0.974, respectively, followed by GBM (AUC of 0.971 and 0.972, respectively) and SVM (AUC of 0.963 and 0.964, respectively) models. The simulation difference between RF and GBM models was not statistically significant (p>0.05) based on the validation datasets, whereas statistically significant differences (p<0.05) were observed for RF and GBM simulations compared with SVM simulations. From the simulated maps derived from RF models, we observed that the distribution of A. albopictus was wider than that of A. aegypti along a latitudinal gradient. The discriminatory power of each factor in simulating the global distribution of the two species was also analyzed. Our results provided fundamental information for further study on disease transmission simulation and risk assessment.

Assessment of a trap based Aedes aegypti surveillance program using mathematical modeling

The goal of this study was to assess the goodness-of-fit of theoretical models of population dynamics of Aedes aegypti to trap data collected by a long term entomological surveillance program. The carrying capacity K of this vector was estimated at city and neighborhood level. Adult mosquito abundance was measured via adults collected weekly by a network of sticky traps (Mosquitraps) from January 2008 to December 2011 in Vitória, Espírito Santo, Brazil. K was the only free parameter estimated by the model. At the city level, the model with temperature as a driver captured the seasonal pattern of mosquito abundance. At the local level, we observed a spatial heterogeneity in the estimated carrying capacity between neighborhoods, weakly associated with environmental variables related to poor infrastructure. Model goodness-of-fit was influenced by the number of sticky traps, and suggests a minimum of 16 traps at the neighborhood level for surveillance.

Predicting the Start of the Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) Female Adult Biting Season Using the Spring Temperature in Japan

Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) is distributed widely and is common in much of Japan. In Japan, female adults begin to bite in between April and June, except in the southern subtropics where the mosquito has no dormant period. It is difficult to estimate the first Ae. albopictus biting day because it varies annually depending on the location. Over several years, we surveyed the mosquitoes at different locations that covered a range of warmer to cooler areas of Japan. We found an association between the timing of first biting day by Ae. albopictus and spring temperature. In spring months, the strongest correlation was found with mean April temperatures, followed by March. Based on these data, it may, therefore, be possible to apply a simple formula to predict the timing of the first biting day at various geographical locations in Japan. Forecasting maps were created using a simple prediction formula. We found that the first biting day for Ae. albopictus changed depending on early spring temperatures for each year. There was an approximate 20-d difference in first biting day between years with warmer and cooler springs. This prediction model will provide useful insight for planning and practice of Ae. albopictus control programs, targeting larvae and adults, in temperate regions globally.

Systematic Review: Land Cover, Meteorological, and Socioeconomic Determinants of Aedes Mosquito Habitat for Risk Mapping

Asian tiger and yellow fever mosquitoes (Aedes albopictus and Ae. aegypti) are global nuisances and are competent vectors for viruses such as Chikungunya (CHIKV), Dengue (DV), and Zika (ZIKV). This review aims to analyze available spatiotemporal distribution models of Aedes mosquitoes and their influential factors. A combination of five sets of 3-5 keywords were used to retrieve all relevant published models. Five electronic search databases were used: PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, and Google Scholar through 17 May 2017. We generated a hierarchical decision tree for article selection. We identified 21 relevant published studies that highlight different combinations of methodologies, models and influential factors. Only a few studies adopted a comprehensive approach highlighting the interaction between environmental, socioeconomic, meteorological and topographic systems. The selected articles showed inconsistent findings in terms of number and type of influential factors affecting the distribution of Aedes vectors, which is most likely attributed to: (i) limited availability of high-resolution data for physical variables, (ii) variation in sampling methods; Aedes feeding and oviposition behavior; (iii) data collinearity and statistical distribution of observed data. This review highlights the need and sets the stage for a rigorous multi-system modeling approach to improve our knowledge about Aedes presence/abundance within their flight range in response to the interaction between environmental, socioeconomic, and meteorological systems.

Northern range expansion of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus): Analysis of mosquito data from Connecticut, USA

Background

The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is an invasive species and important arbovirus vector that was introduced into the U.S. in the 1980's where it continues to expand its range. Winter temperature is an important constraint to its northward expansion, with potential range limits located between the 0° and -5°C mean cold month isotherm. Connecticut is located within this climatic zone and therefore, Ae. albopictus was monitored statewide to assess its northern range expansion and to delineate where populations can stably persist.

Methodology/Principal findings

Ae. albopictus females were monitored at fixed trapping sites throughout Connecticut from June-October over a 20-year period, 1997–2016. In addition, Ae. albopictus larvae and pupae were collected from tire habitats and tires were retrieved from the field in the spring and flooded to evaluate overwintering success of hatching larvae. Ae. albopictus was first detected during statewide surveillance when a single adult female was collected in 2006. This species was not collected again until 2010 and was subsequently detected each successive year with increasing abundance and distribution except following the unusually cold winters of 2014 and 2015. Ae. albopictus mosquitoes were most abundant in urban and suburban locations along the southwestern shoreline of Connecticut; however, single specimens were occasionally detected in central parts of the state. Field-collected females were also screened for arbovirus infection yielding two isolations of Cache Valley virus and one isolation of West Nile virus, highlighting the threat posed by this mosquito. Ae. albopictus overwintered in Connecticut under mild winter conditions as shown by recovery of hatched larvae from field collected tires in spring and by early season detection of larvae and pupae.

Conclusions/Significance

This study documents the establishment and expansion of Ae. albopictus at the northern boundary of its range in the northeastern U.S. and provides a baseline for monitoring the future spread of this species anticipated under climate change.

The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is a highly invasive species and an important disease vector that is undergoing rapid range expansion in many countries including the U.S. Winter temperature is an important limit to its northward expansion with Connecticut situated near the northern boundary of its potential range. In this study, we sampled mosquitoes at fixed trapping sites located statewide to track the establishment and range expansion of Ae. albopictus in this region. In addition, mosquito larvae were monitored in tire habitats to evaluate overwintering success of local populations. From this effort, we describe the initial detection of Ae. albopictus in 2006, its annual reemergence and population expansion in southwestern Connecticut from 2010–2016, and its local overwintering under mild winter conditions. Together, this study documents population changes in Ae. albopictus at the northern boundary of its range and provides a baseline for monitoring future range expansion anticipated under climate change.

Cold tolerance of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus and its response to epigenetic alterations

Phenotypic plasticity is considered as one of the key traits responsible for the establishment of populations of the invasive mosquito Aedes albopictus, an important vector of viral and parasitic pathogens. The successful spread of this species to higher altitudes and latitudes may be explained by its ability to rapidly induce a heritable low-temperature phenotype (cold hardiness in eggs). As a result of the low genetic diversity of founder populations, an epigenetic short-term mechanism has been suggested as the driver of this diversification. We investigated if random epigenetic alterations promoted the cold hardiness of Ae. albopictus eggs from a transgenerational study of two epigenetic agents (genistein and vinclozolin). To this end, we evaluated changes in lethal time for 50% of pharate larvae (Lt₅₀) from eggs exposed to -2°C in two subsequent generations that used a new dose-response test design. We detected a significant diversification of the cold hardiness of eggs (up to 64.5%) that was associated with the epigenetic change in the two subsequent offspring generations. An effect size of epigenetically modulated cold hardiness of this magnitude is likely to have an impact on the spatial distribution of this species. Our results provide a framework for further research on epigenetic temperature adaptation of invasive species to better explain and predict their rapid range expansions.

[Analysis of Distribution of Vector-Borne Diseases Using Geographic Information Systems]

The distribution of vector-borne diseases is changing on a global scale owing to issues involving natural environments, socioeconomic conditions and border disputes among others. Geographic information systems (GIS) provide an important method of establishing a prompt and precise understanding of local data on disease outbreaks, from which disease eradication programs can be established. Having first defined GIS as a combination of GPS, RS and GIS, we showed the processes through which these technologies were being introduced into our research. GIS-derived geographical information attributes were interpreted in terms of point, area, line, spatial epidemiology, risk and development for generating the vector dynamic models associated with the spread of the disease. The need for interdisciplinary scientific and administrative collaboration in the use of GIS to control infectious diseases is highly warranted.

Globally invasive, withdrawing at home: Aedes albopictus and Aedes japonicus facing the rise of Aedes flavopictus

It has been suggested that climate change may have facilitated the global expansion of invasive disease vectors, since several species have expanded their range as temperatures have warmed. Here, we present results from observations on two major global invasive mosquito vectors (Diptera: Culicidae), Aedes albopictus (Skuse) and Aedes japonicus (Theobald), across the altitudinal range of Mt. Konpira, Nagasaki, Japan, a location within their native range, where Aedes flavopictus Yamada, formerly a rare species, has now become dominant. Spatial abundance patterns of the three species suggest that temperature is an important factor influencing their adult distribution across the altitudinal range of Mt. Konpira. Temporal abundance patterns, by contrast, were associated with rainfall and showed signals of density-dependent regulation in the three species. The spatial and temporal analysis of abundance patterns showed that Ae. flavopictus and Ae. albopictus were negatively associated, even when accounting for differential impacts of weather and other environmental factors in their co-occurrence patterns. Our results highlight a contingency in the expansion of invasive vectors, the potential emergence of changes in their interactions with species in their native communities, and raise the question of whether these changes might be useful to predict the emergence of future invasive vectors.

Pyrethroid resistance in Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus: Important mosquito vectors of human diseases

Aedes aegypti and A. albopictus mosquitoes are vectors of important human disease viruses, including dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika. Pyrethroid insecticides are widely used to control adult Aedes mosquitoes, especially during disease outbreaks. Herein, we review the status of pyrethroid resistance in A. aegypti and A. albopictus, mechanisms of resistance, fitness costs associated with resistance alleles and provide suggestions for future research. The widespread use of pyrethroids has given rise to many populations with varying levels of resistance worldwide, albeit with substantial geographical variation. In adult A. aegypti and A. albopictus, resistance levels are generally lower in Asia, Africa and the USA, and higher in Latin America, although there are exceptions. Susceptible populations still exist in several areas of the world, particularly in Asia and South America. Resistance to pyrethroids in larvae is also geographically widespread. The two major mechanisms of pyrethroid resistance are increased detoxification due to P450-monooxygenases, and mutations in the voltage sensitive sodium channel (Vssc) gene. Several P450s have been putatively associated with insecticide resistance, but the specific P450s involved are not fully elucidated. Pyrethroid resistance can be due to single mutations or combinations of mutations in Vssc. The presence of multiple Vssc mutations can lead to extremely high levels of resistance. Suggestions for future research needs are presented.

The Eye of the Tiger, the Thrill of the Fight: Effective Larval and Adult Control Measures Against the Asian Tiger Mosquito, Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae), in North America

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus (Skuse), is a highly invasive container-inhabiting species with a global distribution. This mosquito, similar to other Stegomyia species such as Aedes aegypti (L.), is highly adapted to urban and suburban areas, and commonly oviposits in artificial containers, which are ubiquitous in these peridomestic environments. The increase in speed and amount of international travel and commerce, coupled with global climate change, have aided in the resurgence and expansion of Stegomyia species into new areas of North America. In many parts of their range, both species are implicated as significant vectors of emerging and re-emerging arboviruses such as dengue, chikungunya, and now Zika. Although rapid and major advances have been made in the field of biology, ecology, genetics, taxonomy, and virology, relatively little has changed in the field of mosquito control in recent decades. This is particularly discouraging in regards to container-inhabiting mosquitoes, because traditional integrated mosquito management (IMM) approaches have not been effective against these species. Many mosquito control programs simply do not possess the man-power or necessary financial resources needed to suppress Ae. albopictus effectively. Therefore, control of mosquito larvae, which is the foundation of IMM approaches, is exceptionally difficult over large areas. This review paper addresses larval habitats, use of geographic information systems for habitat preference detection, door-to-door control efforts, source reduction, direct application of larvicides, biological control agents, area-wide low-volume application of larvicides, hot spot treatments, autodissemination stations, public education, adult traps, attractive-toxic sugar bait methods, lethal ovitraps, barrier-residual adulticides, hand-held ultra-low-volume adulticides, area-wide adulticides applied by ground or air, and genetic control methods. The review concludes with future recommendations for practitioners, researchers, private industry, and policy makers.

Effects of diapause and cold acclimation on egg ultrastructure: new insights into the cold hardiness mechanisms of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae, SKUSE), is an important threat to public health due to its rapid spread and its potential as a vector. The eggs of Ae. albopictus are the most cold resistant life stage and thus, the cold hardiness of eggs is used to predict the future occurrence of the species in distribution models. However, the mechanism of cold hardiness has yet to be revealed. To address this question, we analyzed the layers of diapausing and cold acclimatized eggs of a temperate population of Ae. albopictus in a full factorial test design using transmission electron microscopy. We reviewed the hypotheses that a thickened wax layer or chorion is the cause of cold hardiness but found no evidence. As a result of the induced diapause, the thickness of the dark endochorion as a layer of high electron density and thus an assumed location for waxes was decreasing. We therefore hypothesized a qualitative alteration of the wax layer due to compaction. Cold acclimation was causing an increase in the thickness of the middle serosa cuticle indicating a detachment of serosa membrane from the endochorion as a potential adaptation strategy to isolate inoculating ice formations in the inter-membranous space.

Spatial and Temporal Hot Spots of Aedes albopictus Abundance inside and outside a South European Metropolitan Area

Aedes albopictus is a tropical invasive species which in the last decades spread worldwide, also colonizing temperate regions of Europe and US, where it has become a public health concern due to its ability to transmit exotic arboviruses, as well as severe nuisance problems due to its aggressive daytime outdoor biting behaviour. While several studies have been carried out in order to predict the potential limits of the species expansions based on eco-climatic parameters, few studies have so far focused on the specific effects of these variables in shaping its micro-geographic abundance and dynamics. The present study investigated eco-climatic factors affecting Ae. albopictus abundance and dynamics in metropolitan and sub-urban/rural sites in Rome (Italy), which was colonized in 1997 and is nowadays one of the most infested metropolitan areas in Southern Europe. To this aim, longitudinal adult monitoring was carried out along a 70 km-transect across and beyond the most urbanized and densely populated metropolitan area. Two fine scale spatiotemporal datasets (one with reference to a 20m circular buffer around sticky traps used to collect mosquitoes and the second to a 300m circular buffer within each sampling site) were exploited to analyze the effect of climatic and socio-environmental variables on Ae. albopictus abundance and dynamics along the transect. Results showed an association between highly anthropized habitats and high adult abundance both in metropolitan and sub-urban/rural areas, with "small green islands" corresponding to hot spots of abundance in the metropolitan areas only, and a bimodal seasonal dynamics with a second peak of abundance in autumn, due to heavy rains occurring in the preceding weeks in association with permissive temperatures. The results provide useful indications to prioritize public mosquito control measures in temperate urban areas where nuisance, human-mosquito contact and risk of local arbovirus transmission are likely higher, and highlight potential public health risks also after the summer months typically associated with high mosquito densities.