Slope of Kidney Function and Its Association with Longitudinal Mortality and Cardiovascular Disease among Individuals with CKD

Estimated glomerular filtration rate slope and risk of primary and secondary major adverse cardiovascular events and heart failure hospitalization in people with type 2 diabetes: An analysis of the EXSCEL trial

AIM

The decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), a significant predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD), occurs heterogeneously in people with diabetes because of various risk factors. We investigated the role of eGFR decline in predicting CVD events in people with type 2 diabetes in both primary and secondary CVD prevention settings.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Bayesian joint modelling of repeated measures of eGFR and time to CVD event was applied to the Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL) trial to examine the association between the eGFR slope and the incidence of major adverse CV event/hospitalization for heart failure (MACE/hHF) (non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, CV death, or hospitalization for heart failure). The analysis was adjusted for age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, baseline eGFR, antihypertensive and lipid-lowering medication, diabetes duration, atrial fibrillation, high-density cholesterol, total cholesterol, HbA1c and treatment allocation (once-weekly exenatide or placebo).

RESULTS

Data from 11 101 trial participants with (n = 7942) and without (n = 3159) previous history of CVD were analysed. The mean ± SD eGFR slope per year in participants without and with previous CVD was -0.68 ± 1.67 and -1.03 ± 2.13 mL/min/1.73 m2, respectively. The 5-year MACE/hHF incidences were 7.5% (95% CI 6.2, 8.8) and 20% (95% CI 19, 22), respectively. The 1-SD decrease in the eGFR slope was associated with increased MACE/hHF risks of 48% (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.12, 1.98, p = 0.007) and 33% (HR 1.33, 95% CI 1.18,1.51, p < 0.001) in participants without and with previous CVD, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

eGFR trajectories over time significantly predict incident MACE/hHF events in people with type 2 diabetes with and without existing CVD, with a higher hazard ratio for MACE/hHF in the latter group.

Causal effects of obstructive sleep apnea on chronic kidney disease and renal function: a bidirectional Mendelian randomization study

Background

Observational studies have suggested an association between obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), chronic kidney disease (CKD), and renal function, and vice versa. However, the results from these studies are inconsistent. It remains unclear whether there are causal relationships and in which direction they might exist.

Methods

We used a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) method to investigate the bidirectional causal relation between OSA and 7 renal function phenotypes [creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFRcrea), cystatin C-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFRcys), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), rapid progress to CKD, rapid decline of eGFR, urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR) and CKD]. The genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics of OSA were retrieved from FinnGen Consortium. The CKDGen consortium and UK Biobank provided GWAS summary data for renal function phenotypes. Participants in the GWAS were predominantly of European ancestry. Five MR methods, including inverse variance weighted (IVW), MR-Egger, simple mode, weighted median, and weighted mode were used to investigate the causal relationship. The IVW result was considered the primary outcome. Then, Cochran's Q test and MR-Egger were used to detect heterogeneity and pleiotropy. The leave-one-out analysis was used for testing the stability of MR results. RadialMR was used to identify outliers. Bonferroni correction was applied to test the strength of the causal relationships (p < 3.571 × 10-3).

Results

We failed to find any significant causal effect of OSA on renal function phenotypes. Conversely, when we examined the effects of renal function phenotypes on OSA, after removing outliers, we found a significant association between BUN and OSA using IVW method (OR: 2.079, 95% CI: 1.516-2.853; p = 5.72 × 10-6).

Conclusion

This MR study found no causal effect of OSA on renal function in Europeans. However, genetically predicted increased BUN is associated with OSA development. These findings indicate that the relationship between OSA and renal function remains elusive and requires further investigation.

Nephrology referral slows the progression of chronic kidney disease, especially among patients with anaemia, diabetes mellitus, or hypoalbuminemia: A single-centre, retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes guidelines recommend nephrology referral for patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages 4 to 5, significant proteinuria and persistent microscopic haematuria. However, the recommendations are opinion-based and which patients with CKD benefit more from nephrology referral has not been elucidated.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, patients referred to our nephrology outpatient clinic from April 2017 to March 2019 were included. We excluded patients considered to have an acute decline in kidney function (annual decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] >10 mL/min/1.73 m2). The slopes of eGFR before and after nephrology referral were estimated and compared by linear mixed effects models. Interaction between time and referral status (before or after referral) was assessed and effect modifications by the presence of diabetes, proteinuria (defined by urine dipstick protein 2+ or more), urine occult blood, hypoalbuminemia (defined by albumin levels less than 3.5 g/dL) and anaemia (defined by haemoglobin levels less than 11.0 g/dL) were evaluated.

RESULTS

The eGFR slope significantly improved from -2.05 (-2.39 to -1.72) to -0.96 (-1.36 to -0.56) mL/min/1.73 m2/year after nephrology referral (p < .001). The improvement in eGFR slope was more prominent among those with diabetes mellitus, anaemia, and hypoalbuminemia (all p-values for three-way interaction <.001 after adjustment for covariates). Further adjustments for time-dependent haemoglobin levels, the use of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents, iron supplementation, anti-hypertensives and anti-diabetic medications did not change the significance of the interactions.

CONCLUSIONS

Nephrology referral slows CKD progression, especially among those with hypoalbuminemia, diabetes or anaemia. Patients with hypoalbuminemia, diabetes or anaemia might benefit more from specialized care and lifestyle modifications by nephrologists. The inclusion of anaemia and hypoalbuminemia in nephrology referral criteria should be considered.

Depressive Symptoms, Antidepressants, and Clinical Outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease: Findings from the CRIC Study

Rationale & Objective

The extent to which depression affects the progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and leads to adverse clinical outcomes remains inadequately understood. We examined the association of depressive symptoms (DS) and antidepressant medication use on clinical outcomes in 4,839 adults with nondialysis CKD.

Study Design

Observational cohort study.

Setting and Participants

Adults with mild to moderate CKD who participated in the multicenter Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study (CRIC).

Exposure

The Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) was used to quantify DS. Antidepressant use was identified from medication bottles and prescription lists. Individual effects of DS and antidepressants were examined along with categorization as follows: (1) BDI <11 and no antidepressant use, (2) BDI <11 with antidepressant use, (3) BDI ≥11 and no antidepressant use, and (4) BDI ≥11 with antidepressant use.

Outcomes

CKD progression, incident cardiovascular disease composite, all-cause hospitalizations, and mortality.

Analytic Approach

Cox regression models were fitted for outcomes of CKD progression, incident cardiovascular disease, and all-cause mortality, whereas hospitalizations used Poisson regression.

Results

At baseline, 27.3% of participants had elevated DS, and 19.7% used antidepressants. Elevated DS at baseline were associated with significantly greater risk for an incident cardiovascular disease event, hospitalization, and all-cause mortality, but not CKD progression, adjusted for antidepressants. Antidepressant use was associated with higher risk for all-cause mortality and hospitalizations, after adjusting for DS. Compared to participants without elevated DS and not using antidepressants, the remaining groups (BDI <11 with antidepressants; BDI ≥11 and no antidepressants; BDI ≥11 with antidepressants) showed higher risks of hospitalization and all-cause mortality.

Limitations

Inability to infer causality among depressive symptoms, antidepressants, and outcomes. Additionally, the absence of nonpharmacological data, and required exploration of generalizability and alternative analytical approaches.

Conclusions

Elevated DS increased adverse outcome risk in nondialysis CKD, unattenuated by antidepressants. Additionally, investigation into the utilization and counterproductivity of antidepressants in this population is warranted.

Rapid decline of kidney function increases fracture risk in the general population: Insights from TLGS

BACKGROUND

Although the association between Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) and all-cause fractures was addressed in previous studies, the association between estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline and fractures was poorly addressed. For the first time we examined the association between rapid kidney function decline (RKFD) and fracture incidence among Iranian general population.

METHODS

In a Tehranian community-based cohort, RKFD was defined as a 30 % decline in eGFR over 2-3 years. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age, sex, current eGFR, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, dyslipidemia, current smoking, obesity status, waist circumference, prevalent cardiovascular diseases, aspirin, steroid use, education level, and marital status, were used to examine the association of RKFD with different fracture outcomes.

RESULTS

Among 5305 (3031 women) individuals aged ≥30 years, during the median follow-up of 9.62 years, 226 fracture events were observed. The multivariable hazard ratio of RKFD for any-fracture events, lower-extremity, and major osteoporotic fractures were 2.18 (95 % CI, 1.24-3.85), 2.32 (1.15-4.71), and 2.91 (1.29-6.58), respectively. These associations remained significant after accounting for the competing risk of death. The impact of RKFD on the development of incident all-cause fractures was not modified by gender [men: 2.64 (1.11-6.25) vs. women: 2.11 (1.00-4.47)] and according to current CKD status [without CKD: 2.34 (1.00-5.52) vs. with CKD: 2.59 (1.04-6.44)] (all P for interaction >0.5).

CONCLUSIONS

RKFD can increase the incidence of fractures among general population, the issue that was equally important among non-CKD individuals, emphasizing the need for early identification and management in those with rapidly declining eGFR.

Association of eGFR slope with all-cause mortality, macrovascular and microvascular outcomes in people with type 2 diabetes and early-stage chronic kidney disease

AIMS

The association of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) slope with progression of complications in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and early-stage chronic kidney disease (CKD) is less clear.

METHODS

We identified 115,139 T2D participants without decreased eGFR (>60 mL/min/1.73 m2) between 2008 and 2015 from the electronic database of the Hong Kong Hospital Authority. eGFR slope calculated by linear-mixed effects model using 3-year eGFR measurements was categorized into quintiles. With Quintile 3 of eGFR slope as the reference group, we used Cox proportional or cause-specific models to investigate the association between eGFR slope and all-cause mortality, macrovascular and microvascular complications, as appropriate.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 7.8 years, fastest eGFR declines (Quintile 1 with median eGFR slope: -4.32 mL/min/1.73 m2/year) were associated with increased risk of all adverse outcomes (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.36 to 2.97, all P < 0.0001), compared with less steep eGFR declines (Quintile 3: -1.08 mL/min/1.73 m2/year). Substantial eGFR increases (Quintile 5: 1.34 mL/min/1.73 m2/year) were associated with decreased risk of CKD and ≥ 40 % decline in eGFR (aHR [95 % CI] 0.65 [0.63, 0.67] and 0.85 [0.82, 0.89], respectively) and higher risk of death, CVD, DR and DN (aHR [95 % CI] 1.48 [1.40, 1.56], 1.19 [1.14, 1.25], 1.07 [1.004, 1.15] and 1.62 [1.37, 1.91], respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

In a cohort of T2D people without decreased eGFR, accelerated declines and increases in eGFR were associated with all-cause mortality, macrovascular and microvascular complications, supporting the potential prognostic utility of eGFR slope in T2D people with early-stage CKD.

Association between estimated glomerular filtration rate slope and cardiovascular disease among individuals with and without diabetes: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have reported an association between a significant decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) over time and an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study aimed to investigate the association between the eGFR slope and CVD among individuals with and without diabetes.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study was conducted within the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) framework. We studied 6919 adults aged 20-70 years, including 985 with diabetes and 5934 without diabetes. The eGFR slope was determined based on repeated measurements of eGFR through linear mixed-effects models. A multivariable Cox proportional hazard model was employed to evaluate the association between eGFR slope, both in continuous and categorical form, and the risk of CVD.

RESULTS

The slopes of eGFR exhibited a bell-shaped distribution, with a mean (standard deviation (SD)) of -0.63 (0.13) and - 0.70 (0.14) ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year in individuals with and without diabetes, respectively. During a median follow-up of 8.22 years, following the 9-year eGFR slope ascertainment period, a total of 551 CVD events (195 in patients with diabetes) were observed. Among individuals with diabetes, a steeper decline in eGFR slope was significantly associated with a higher risk of CVD events, even after adjusting for baseline eGFR, demographic factors, and traditional risk factors for CVD; slopes of (-1.05 to -0.74) and (-0.60 to -0.52) were associated with 2.12 and %64 higher risks for CVD, respectively, compared with a slope of (-0.51 to 0.16). Among individuals without diabetes, the annual eGFR slope did not show a significant association with the risk of CVD.

CONCLUSION

Monitoring the eGFR slope may serve as a potential predictor of CVD risk in individuals with diabetes.

Rate of Kidney Function Decline is Associated With Kidney and Heart Failure in Individuals With Type 1 Diabetes

Introduction

Diabetes is the most common cause of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Urinary albumin excretion rate (AER) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) are commonly used to monitor the onset and progression of diabetic kidney disease (DKD). We studied if the preceding rate of kidney function decline, that is, the eGFR slope, is independently associated with incident clinical cardiorenal events.

Methods

This study included longitudinal data for 2498 Finnish individuals with type 1 diabetes (T1D). The eGFR slope was calculated from 5 years preceding the study visit. Data on kidney failure, coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, 3-point major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), heart failure, and death were obtained from national registries. The associations between the eGFR slope and incident events were assessed with multivariable competing risk models during the average follow-up of 9.2 years.

Results

The eGFR slopes were associated (P ≤ 0.001) with all outcomes when adjusted for age, sex, and HbA1c. However, eGFR slope remained associated only with the composite outcome of kidney failure or death when the albuminuria group and eGFR at the study visit were included in the model (P = 0.041). In addition, eGFR slope was independently associated with kidney failure in individuals without CKD (eGFR > 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2; P = 0.044), and with heart failure in those with CKD (P = 0.033). However, eGFR slope did not markedly improve the model C-index.

Conclusion

The eGFR slope was independently associated with kidney failure in those without CKD, and with heart failure in those with CKD. However, it is unlikely to have major relevance for clinical practice when the current eGFR and albuminuria status are known.

Vitamin D Metabolites and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease in Chronic Kidney Disease: The CRIC Study

Background The ratio of 24,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3/25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (vitamin D metabolite ratio [VDMR]) may reflect functional vitamin D activity. We examined associations of the VDMR, 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D), and 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D (1,25[OH]2D) with cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with chronic kidney disease. Methods and Results This study included longitudinal and cross-sectional analyses of 1786 participants from the CRIC (Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort) Study. Serum 24,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3, 25(OH)D, and 1,25(OH)2D were measured by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry 1 year after enrollment. The primary outcome was composite CVD (heart failure, myocardial infarction, stroke, and peripheral arterial disease). We used Cox regression with regression-calibrated weights to test associations of the VDMR, 25(OH)D, and 1,25(OH)2D with incident CVD. We examined cross-sectional associations of these metabolites with left ventricular mass index using linear regression. Analytic models adjusted for demographics, comorbidity, medications, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and proteinuria. The cohort was 42% non-Hispanic White race and ethnicity, 42% non-Hispanic Black race and ethnicity, and 12% Hispanic ethnicity. Mean age was 59 years, and 43% were women. Among 1066 participants without prevalent CVD, there were 298 composite first CVD events over a mean follow-up of 8.6 years. Lower VDMR and 1,25(OH)2D were associated with incident CVD before, but not after, adjustment for estimated glomerular filtration rate and proteinuria (hazard ratio, 1.11 per 1 SD lower VDMR [95% CI, 0.95-1.31]). Only 25(OH)D was associated with left ventricular mass index after full covariate adjustment (0.6 g/m2.7 per 10 ng/mL lower [95% CI, 0.0-1.3]). Conclusions Despite modest associations of 25(OH)D with left ventricular mass index, 25(OH)D, the VDMR, and 1,25(OH)2D were not associated with incident CVD in chronic kidney disease.

Novel Genetic Variants Associated with Chronic Kidney Disease Progression

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT

eGFR slope has been used as a surrogate outcome for progression of CKD. However, genetic markers associated with eGFR slope among patients with CKD were unknown. We aimed to identify genetic susceptibility loci associated with eGFR slope. A two-phase genome-wide association study identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in TPPP and FAT1-LINC02374 , and 22 of them were used to derive polygenic risk scores that mark the decline of eGFR by disrupting binding of nearby transcription factors. This work is the first to identify the impact of TPPP and FAT1-LINC02374 on CKD progression, providing predictive markers for the decline of eGFR in patients with CKD.

BACKGROUND

The incidence of CKD is associated with genetic factors. However, genetic markers associated with the progression of CKD have not been fully elucidated.

METHODS

We conducted a genome-wide association study among 1738 patients with CKD, mainly from the KoreaN cohort study for Outcomes in patients With CKD. The outcome was eGFR slope. We performed a replication study for discovered single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with P <10 -6 in 2498 patients with CKD from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort study. Several expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) studies, pathway enrichment analyses, exploration of epigenetic architecture, and predicting disruption of transcription factor (TF) binding sites explored potential biological implications of the loci. We developed and evaluated the effect of polygenic risk scores (PRS) on incident CKD outcomes.

RESULTS

SNPs in two novel loci, TPPP and FAT1-LINC02374 , were replicated (rs59402340 in TPPP , Pdiscovery =7.11×10 -7 , PCRIC =8.13×10 -4 , Pmeta =7.23×10 -8 ; rs28629773 in FAT1-LINC02374 , Pdiscovery =6.08×10 -7 , PCRIC =4.33×10 -2 , Pmeta =1.87×10 -7 ). The eQTL studies revealed that the replicated SNPs regulated the expression level of nearby genes associated with kidney function. Furthermore, these SNPs were near gene enhancer regions and predicted to disrupt the binding of TFs. PRS based on the independently significant top 22 SNPs were significantly associated with CKD outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates that SNP markers in the TPPP and FAT1-LINC02374 loci could be predictive markers for the decline of eGFR in patients with CKD.

Causal Effects of Specific Gut Microbiota on Chronic Kidney Diseases and Renal Function-A Two-Sample Mendelian Randomization Study

BACKGROUND

Targeting the gut microbiota may become a new therapeutic to prevent and delay the progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Nonetheless, the causal relationship between specific intestinal flora and CKD is still unclear.

MATERIALS AND METHOD

To identify genetically predicted microbiota, we used summary data from genome-wide association studies on gut microbiota in 18340 participants from 24 cohorts. Furthermore, we genetically predicted the causal relationship between 211 gut microbiotas and six phenotypes (outcomes) (CKD, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), urine albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR), dialysis, rapid progress to CKD, and rapid decline of eGFR). Four Mendelian randomization (MR) methods, including inverse variance weighted (IVW), MR-Egger, weighted median, and weighted mode were used to investigate the casual relationship between gut microbiotas and various outcomes. The result of IVW was deemed as the primary result. Then, Cochrane's Q test, MR-Egger, and MR-PRESSO Global test were used to detect heterogeneity and pleiotropy. The leave-one method was used for testing the stability of MR results and Bonferroni-corrected was used to test the strength of the causal relationship between exposure and outcome.

RESULTS

Through the MR analysis of 211 microbiotas and six clinical phenotypes, a total of 36 intestinal microflora were found to be associated with various outcomes. Among them, Class Bacteroidia (=-0.005, 95% CI: -0.001 to -0.008, p = 0.002) has a strong causality with lower eGFR after the Bonferroni-corrected test, whereas phylum Actinobacteria (OR = 1.0009, 95%CI: 1.0003-1.0015, p = 0.0024) has a strong causal relationship with dialysis. The Cochrane's Q test reveals that there is no significant heterogeneity between various single nucleotide polymorphisms. In addition, no significant level of pleiotropy was found according to MR-Egger and MR-PRESSO Global tests.

CONCLUSIONS

Through the two-sample MR analysis, we identified the specific intestinal flora that has a causal relationship with the incidence and progression of CKD at the level of gene prediction, which may provide helpful biomarkers for early disease diagnosis and potential therapeutic targets for CKD.

The Emerging Role of Sodium-glucose Cotransporter 2 Inhibitors in Heart Failure

Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) are a relatively novel drug class that most cardiologists are becoming familiar with. By contrasting glucose reabsorption in the proximal convoluted tubule of the nephron, SGLT2 inhibition results in glycosuria with improved glycemic control. Although originally introduced as anti-diabetic medications, the cardiovascular effects of SGLT2i have progressively emerged, leading them to become one of the four pillars for the treatment of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) according to the 2021 guidelines from the European Society of Cardiology. Also, two recent randomized trials have demonstrated SGLT2i as the first compounds with proven prognostic impact in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), setting a milestone in the treatment for this condition. While the exact pathogenic mechanisms mediating the substantial reduction in cardiovascular death and heart failure (HF) hospitalizations are still controversial, there is growing clinical evidence on the efficacy and safety of SGLT2i in various subsets of patients with HF. As known, heart failure is a complex and heterogeneous clinical syndrome with a magnitude of phenotypes and a variety of underlying hemodynamic and physiological aspects which cannot be fully incorporated into the traditional left ventricular ejection fraction based classification adopted in clinical trials. The aim of this review is to provide an overview of the cardiovascular benefits and indications of SGLT2i across different HF patterns and to highlight current gaps in knowledge that should be addressed by future research.

Long-term impact of cardiorenal syndromes on major outcomes based on their chronology: a comprehensive French nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

Cardiorenal syndromes (CRSs) are reputed to result in worse prognosis than isolated heart failure (HF) and chronic kidney disease (CKD). Whether it is true for all major outcomes over the long-term regardless of CRS chronology (simultaneous, cardiorenal and renocardiac CRS) is unknown.

METHODS

The 5-year adjusted risk of major outcomes was assessed in this nationwide retrospective cohort study in all 385 687 with either CKD or HF (out of 5 123 193 patients who were admitted in a French hospital in 2012).

RESULTS

Overall, 84.0% patients had HF and 8.9% had CKD (they had similar age, sex ratio, diabetes and hypertension prevalence), while 7.1% had CRS (cardiorenal: 44.6%, renocardiac: 14.5%, simultaneous CRS: 40.8%).The incidence of major outcomes was 57.3%, 53.0%, 79.2% for death; 18.8%, 10.9%, 27.5% for cardiovascular death; 52.6%, 34.7%, 64.3% for HF; 6.2%, 5.5%, 5.6% for myocardial infarction (MI); 6.1%, 5.8%, 5.3% for ischaemic stroke; and 23.1%, 4.8%, 16.1% for end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) for isolated CKD, isolated HF and CRS, respectively.As compared with isolated CKD or HF, the risk of death, cardiovascular death and HF was markedly increased in CRS, the worse phenotype being cardiorenal CRS, while the increased risk of MI and ischaemic stroke associated with CRS subtypes was statistically but not clinically significant. As compared with isolated CKD, the risk of ESKD was similar for cardiorenal CRS only and marginally increased for renocardiac and simultaneous CRS. We could not find a synergy between HF and CKD on major clinical outcomes in the whole population (n = 5 123 193 patients).

CONCLUSIONS

The additional impact of CRS versus isolated HF or CKD on long-term kidney and cardiovascular risk is highly heterogenous, depending of the event considered and CRS chronology. No synergy between HF and CKD could be demonstrated.

Randomized clinical study to evaluate the effect of personalized therapy on patients with immunoglobulin A nephropathy

Background

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have been conducted, stratifying idiopathic immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) patients based on the laboratory findings [serum creatinine, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and daily proteinuria]. In contrast, data from kidney biopsy have been used only for clinical diagnosis. Therefore, IgAN patients with active or chronic renal lesions have been receiving the same therapy in experimental and control arms of randomized clinical trials (RCTs).

Methods

Our clinical study of IgAN (CLIgAN) is a multicentre, prospective, controlled and open-label RCT based on patients' stratification at the time of their kidney biopsy. We will consider, first, the type of renal lesions, followed by serum creatinine values, eGFR and proteinuria. Primary and secondary endpoints will be monitored. Then, we will determine whether personalized therapy can slow the decline of renal function and delay end-stage kidney disease.

Results

We will enrol 132 IgAN patients with active renal lesions (66 patients per arm) in the first RCT (ACIgAN). They will receive corticosteroids combined with renin-angiotensin system blockers (RASBs) or only RASBs. A total of 294 IgAN patients with chronic or moderate renal lesions at high or very high risk of chronic kidney disease (147 patients per arm) will be enrolled in the second RCT (CHRONIgAN), in which they will receive dapagliflozin, a sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor, combined with RASBs, or RASBs alone.

Conclusion

Using this approach, we hypothesize that patients could receive personalized therapy based on renal lesions to ensure that the right drug gets to the right patient at the right time.

Analysis of eGFR index category and annual eGFR slope association with adverse clinical outcomes using real-world Japanese data: a retrospective database study

OBJECTIVES

Real-world clinical outcome data of patients with an above-normal estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and increasing eGFR over time (eGFR slope) are scarce. Although eGFR is commonly recorded, eGFR slopes are rarely used for adverse outcome risk categorisation in clinical practice. We investigated the association of above-normal/below-normal eGFR ranges and increasing/declining eGFR slopes with clinical outcomes in Japan.

DESIGN

Observational cohort study.

SETTING

Primary and acute care hospitals; 423 centres.

PARTICIPANTS

57 452 patients aged ≥16 years with ≥3 eGFR values (latest available January 2013-December 2016) from the Japanese Medical Data Vision database were stratified into six index eGFR and six eGFR slope groups (slopes calculated using a linear mixed model).

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Time-to-event analyses of cardiovascular mortality, all-cause mortality (ACM), all-cause hospitalisation (ACH) and cardiovascular and major kidney events. eGFR and slope groups were analysed by Cox proportional hazard models with multivariable adjustment, using normal eGFR/little-to-no slope groups as reference.

RESULTS

Higher risk of clinical outcomes was observed with declining eGFR slope groups versus the reference group; the HR (95% CI) for slope ≤-5 mL/min/1.73 m²/year: cardiovascular events 1.8 (1.4 to 2.2), ACH 1.8 (1.5 to 2.1), and ACM 2.8 (1.9 to 4.2) and was non-significant for kidney events 1.5 (0.9 to 2.5). A similar, but non-significant, pattern was observed with increasing slope groups (slope >3 mL/min/1.73 m²/year HR (95% CI): cardiovascular events 1.2 (0.9 to 1.5), ACH 1.1 (0.9 to 1.4) and ACM 1.5 (0.9 to 2.3)).Above-normal and below-normal eGFR groups were associated with poorer outcomes versus the reference group, but kidney events were associated with below-normal eGFR only.

CONCLUSION

Poorer clinical outcomes were observed not only for below-normal eGFR and declining eGFR slope groups but also for certain above-normal eGFR and increasing slope groups. eGFR and eGFR slope may, therefore, be useful for identifying patients at high risk of adverse clinical outcomes.

Development and validation of a novel nomogram to predict overall survival of patients with moderate to severe chronic kidney disease

Introduction

The risk of death significantly increased from stage 3 chronic kidney disease (CKD) onward. We aimed to construct a novel nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) of patients afflicted with CKD from stage 3–5.

Methods

A total of 882 patients with stage 3–5 CKD were enrolled from the NHANES 2001–2004 survey. Data sets from the 2003–2004 survey population were used to develop a nomogram that would predict the risk of OS. The 2001–2002 survey population was used to validate the nomogram. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regression was conducted to screen the significant predictors relative to all-cause death. The multivariate Cox regression based on the screened factors was applied to effectively construct the nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated according to the C-index, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and the calibration curve with 1000 bootstraps resample. Kaplan–Meier’s curves were used for testing the discrimination of the prediction model.

Results

Five variables (age, urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR), potassium, cystatin C (Cys C), and homocysteine) were screened by the Lasso regression. The nomogram was constructed using these factors, as well as the CKD stage. The included factors (age, CKD stage, UACR, potassium, Cys C, and homocysteine) were all significantly related to the death of CKD patients, according to the multivariate Cox regression analysis. The internal validation showed that this nomogram demonstrates good discrimination and calibration (adjusted C-index: 0.70; AUC of 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS were 0.75, 0.78, and 0.77, respectively). External validation also demonstrated exceedingly similar results (C-index: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.69–0.76; AUC of 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS were 0.76, 0.79, and 0.80, respectively).

Conclusions

This study effectively constructed a novel nomogram that incorporates CKD stage, age, UACR, potassium, Cys C, and homocysteine, which can be conveniently used to facilitate the individualized prediction of survival probability in patients with stage 3–5 CKD. It displays valuable potential for clinical application.

Time-Updated Changes in Estimated GFR and Proteinuria and Major Adverse Cardiac Events: Findings from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Evaluating repeated measures of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urinary protein-creatinine ratio (UPCR) over time may enhance our ability to understand the association between changes in kidney parameters and cardiovascular disease risk.

STUDY DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

Annual visit data from 2,438 participants in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC).

EXPOSURES

Average and slope of eGFR and UPCR in time-updated, 1-year exposure windows.

OUTCOMES

Incident heart failure, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events, death, and a composite of incident heart failure, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events, and death.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

A landmark analysis, a dynamic approach to survival modeling that leverages longitudinal, iterative profiles of laboratory and clinical information to assess the time-updated 3-year risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes.

RESULTS

Adjusting for baseline and time-updated covariates, every standard deviation lower mean eGFR (19mL/min/1.73m²) and declining slope of eGFR (8mL/min/1.73m² per year) were independently associated with higher risks of heart failure (hazard ratios [HRs] of 1.82 [95% CI, 1.39-2.44] and 1.28 [95% CI, 1.12-1.45], respectively) and the composite outcome (HRs of 1.32 [95% CI, 1.11-1.54] and 1.11 [95% CI, 1.03-1.20], respectively). Every standard deviation higher mean UPCR (136mg/g) and increasing UPCR (240mg/g per year) were also independently associated with higher risks of heart failure (HRs of 1.58 [95% CI, 1.28-1.97] and 1.20 [95% CI, 1.10-1.29], respectively) and the composite outcome (HRs of 1.33 [95% CI, 1.17-1.50] and 1.12 [95% CI, 1.06-1.18], respectively).

LIMITATIONS

Limited generalizability of annual eGFR and UPCR assessments; several biomarkers for cardiovascular disease risk were not available annually.

CONCLUSIONS

Using the landmark approach to account for time-updated patterns of kidney function, average and slope of eGFR and proteinuria were independently associated with 3-year cardiovascular risk. Short-term changes in kidney function provide information about cardiovascular risk incremental to level of kidney function, representing possible opportunities for more effective management of patients with chronic kidney disease.