How do dispersal costs and habitat selection influence realized population connectivity?

Study methodology impacts density-dependent dispersal observations: a systematic review

The relationship between animal dispersal and conspecific density has been explored in various study systems but results in terms of both the magnitude and the direction of density dependence are inconsistent. We conducted a thorough review of the literature (2000-2023) and found k = 97 empirical studies of birds, fishes, herpetofauna (amphibians and reptiles), invertebrates, or mammals that had tested for a correlation between conspecific density and animal dispersal. We extracted categorical variables for taxonomic group, sex, age, migratory behavior, study design, dispersal metric, density metric and variable type, as well as temporal and spatial scale, to test each of their correlation with the effect of density on dispersal (Pearson's r) using linear regressions and multilevel mixed-effect modelling. We found certain biases in the published literature, highlighting that the impact of conspecific density on dispersal is not as widespread as it is thought to be. We also found no predominant trend for density-dependent dispersal across taxonomic groups. Instead, results show that the scale and metrics of empirical observations significantly affected analytical results, and heterogeneity measures were high within taxonomic groups. Therefore, the direction and magnitude of the interaction between density and dispersal in empirical studies could partially be attributed to the data collection method involved. We suggest that the contradictory observations for density-dependent dispersal could be explained by dispersal-dependent density, where density is driven by movement instead, and urge researchers to either test this interaction when applicable or consider this perspective when reporting results.

Marine fishes experiencing high-velocity range shifts may not be climate change winners

Climate change is driving the global redistribution of species. A common assumption is that rapid range shifts occur in tandem with overall stable or positive abundance trends throughout the range and thus these species may be considered as climate change 'winners'. However, although establishing the link between range shift velocities and population trends is crucial for predicting climate change impacts it has not been empirically tested. Using 2,572 estimates of changes in marine fish abundance spread across the world's oceans, we show that poleward range shifts are not necessarily associated with positive population trends. Species experiencing high-velocity range shifts seem to experience local population declines irrespective of the position throughout the species range. High range shift velocities of 17 km yr-1 are associated with a 50% decrease in population sizes over a period of 10 yr, which is dramatic compared to the overall stable population trends in non-shifting species. This pattern, however, mostly occurs in populations located in the poleward, colder, portion of the species range. The lack of a positive association between poleward range shift velocities and population trends at the coldest portion of the range contrasts with the view that rapid range shifts safeguard against local population declines. Instead, our work suggests that marine fishes experiencing rapid range shifts could be more vulnerable to climatic change and therefore should be carefully assessed for conservation status.

Dispersal, kin aggregation, and the fitness consequences of not spreading sibling larvae

Dispersal has far-reaching implications for individuals, populations, and communities, especially in sessile organisms. Escaping competition with conspecifics and with kin are theorized to be key factors leading to dispersal as an adaptation. However, manipulative approaches in systems in which adults are sessile but offspring have behaviors is required for a more complete understanding of how competition affects dispersal. Here, we integrate a series of experiments to study how dispersal affects the density and relatedness of neighbors, and how the density and relatedness of neighbors in turn affects fitness. In a marine bryozoan, we empirically estimated dispersal kernels and found that most larvae settled within ~1 m of the maternal colony, although some could potentially travel at least 10s of meters. Larvae neither actively preferred or avoided conspecifics or kin at settlement. We experimentally determined the effects of spreading sibling larvae by manipulating the density and relatedness of settlers and measuring components of fitness in the field. We found that settler density reduced maternal fitness when settler neighbors were siblings compared with when neighbors were unrelated or absent. Genetic markers also identified very few half sibs (and no full sibs) in adults from the natural population, and rarely close enough to directly interact. In this system, dispersal occurs over short distances (meters) yet, in contrast with expectations, there appears to be limited kinship between adult neighbors. Our results suggest that the limited dispersal increases early offspring mortality when siblings settle next to each other, rather than next to unrelated conspecifics, potentially reducing kinship in adult populations. High offspring production and multiple paternity could further dilute kinship at settlement and reduce selection for dispersal beyond the scale of 10s of meters.

Effects of environment and genotype on dispersal differ across departure, transfer and settlement in a butterfly metapopulation

Active dispersal is driven by extrinsic and intrinsic factors at the three stages of departure, transfer and settlement. Most empirical studies capture only one stage of this complex process, and knowledge of how much can be generalized from one stage to another remains unknown. Here we use genetic assignment tests to reconstruct dispersal across 5 years and 232 habitat patches of a Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) metapopulation. We link individual dispersal events to weather, landscape structure, size and quality of habitat patches, and individual genotype to identify the factors that influence the three stages of dispersal and post-settlement survival. We found that nearly all tested factors strongly affected departure probabilities, but that the same factors explained very little variation in realized dispersal distances. Surprisingly, we found no effect of dispersal distance on post-settlement survival. Rather, survival was influenced by weather conditions, quality of the natal habitat patch, and a strong interaction between genotype and occupancy status of the settled habitat patch, with more mobile genotypes having higher survival as colonists rather than as immigrants. Our work highlights the multi-causality of dispersal and that some dispersal costs can only be understood by considering extrinsic and intrinsic factors and their interaction across the entire dispersal process.

Genomic investigations provide insights into the mechanisms of resilience to heterogeneous habitats of the Indian Ocean in a pelagic fish

The adaptive genetic variation in response to heterogeneous habitats of the Indian Ocean was investigated in the Indian oil sardine using ddRAD sequencing to understand the subpopulation structure, stock complexity, mechanisms of resilience, and vulnerability in the face of climate change. Samples were collected from different ecoregions of the Indian ocean and ddRAD sequencing was carried out. Population genetic analyses revealed that samples from the Gulf of Oman significantly diverged from other Indian Ocean samples. SNP allele-environment correlation revealed the presence of candidate loci correlated with the environmental variables like annual sea surface temperature, chlorophyll-a, and dissolved oxygen concentration which might represent genomic regions allegedly diverging as a result of local adaptation. Larval dispersal modelling along the southwest coast of India indicated a high dispersal rate. The two major subpopulations (Gulf of Oman and Indian) need to be managed regionally to ensure the preservation of genetic diversity, which is crucial for climatic resilience.

Selection Experiments in the Sea: What Can Experimental Evolution Tell Us About How Marine Life Will Respond to Climate Change?

AbstractRapid evolution may provide a buffer against extinction risk for some species threatened by climate change; however, the capacity to evolve rapidly enough to keep pace with changing environments is unknown for most taxa. The ecosystem-level consequences of climate adaptation are likely to be the largest in marine ecosystems, where short-lived phytoplankton with large effective population sizes make up the bulk of primary production. However, there are substantial challenges to predicting climate-driven evolution in marine systems, including multiple simultaneous axes of change and considerable heterogeneity in rates of change, as well as the biphasic life cycles of many marine metazoans, which expose different life stages to disparate sources of selection. A critical tool for addressing these challenges is experimental evolution, where populations of organisms are directly exposed to controlled sources of selection to test evolutionary responses. We review the use of experimental evolution to test the capacity to adapt to climate change stressors in marine species. The application of experimental evolution in this context has grown dramatically in the past decade, shedding light on the capacity for evolution, associated trade-offs, and the genetic architecture of stress-tolerance traits. Our goal is to highlight the utility of this approach for investigating potential responses to climate change and point a way forward for future studies.

High road mortality during female-biased larval dispersal in an iconic beetle

ABSTRACT

Animals often disperse from one habitat to another to access mates or suitable breeding sites. The costs and benefits of such movements depend, in part, on the dispersing individuals' phenotypes, including their sex and age. Here we investigated dispersal and road-related mortality in larvae of a bioluminescent beetle, the European common glow-worm, Lampyris noctiluca, in relation to habitat, sex and proximity of pupation. We expected these variables to be relevant to larval dispersal because adult females are wingless, whereas adult males fly when searching for glowing females. We found that dispersing glow-worm larvae were almost exclusively females and close to pupation. The larvae were often found on a road, where they were able to move at relatively high speeds, with a tendency to uphill orientation. However, each passing vehicle caused a high mortality risk, and we found large numbers of larvae run over by cars, especially close to covered, forest-like habitat patches. In contrast, adult females in the same area were most often found glowing in more open rocky and grassy habitats. These findings demonstrate an underappreciated ecological strategy, sex-biased dispersal at larval phase, motivated by different habitat needs of larvae and wingless adult females. The results are also consistent with roads being an ecological trap, facilitating dispersal and presumably females' signal visibility but causing severe larval mortality just before the reproductive stage. Hence, in addition to the previously recognised threats of urbanisation, even low traffic volumes have a high potential to negatively affect especially females of this iconic beetle.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT

Animals sometimes need to move from one habitat to another to find mating partners or breeding sites. We found this need to result in strongly female-biased larval dispersal in the European common glow-worm, a beetle known for the glow of wingless females that attract flying males to mate. Female larvae moving between habitats often used a road or trail but perished in high numbers when run over by cars. Hence, roads are likely to be ecological traps for the female glow-worm larvae, attracting them during dispersal, but causing grave mortality. The sex-biased larval dispersal, demonstrated in this study, is a poorly known ecological strategy that was found to be very risky in a human-modified landscape.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00265-020-02962-6.

Marine invertebrate larvae love plastics: Habitat selection and settlement on artificial substrates

Global urbanization and plastic pollution has increased the availability and variety of substrates for sessile organisms, and are intensively used by invasive species for settlement. Despite extensive literature describing the strong association between artificial structures and invasive species, little effort has been directed towards identifying the larval traits that favor this selection. Larval selection and settlement are crucial as larvae actively search and interpret environmental cues to identify suitable habitats to settle. The aim of this research was to investigate if invertebrate larvae have a preference for a particular anthropogenic substrate, and how pre-settlement behaviors vary when encountering different substrates. We used two invasive bryozoan species, Bugula flabellata and Bugula neritina, which are commonly found in urbanized areas around the world. Energy expenditure during planktonic and benthonic stages, pre-settlement swimming/exploring behaviors, settlement and larval selectivity were quantified under laboratory conditions on different substrates (concrete, wood, polystyrene, polyvinyl chloride, polyethylene terephthalate and polycarbonate). The energy expenditure measured was higher in planktonic larvae than in early settled larvae. Larvae of both species swam less and explored more when exposed to plastic surfaces, suggesting a preference for this substrate and resulting in lower energy expenditures associated with searching for habitat. Larvae actively chose to settle on plastics rather than on wood or concrete substrates. The results suggest that for Bugula larvae, the likelihood of colonizing plastic surfaces is higher than other materials commonly found in urbanized coastal areas. The more quickly they adhere to artificial substrates the lower the energy expenditure, contributing to higher fitness in these individuals. The strong preference of invertebrate larvae for plastics can potentially extend the distribution range of many invasive marine species as they are able to travel long distances attached to floating debris. This phenomenon will likely exacerbate the introduction of exotic species into novel habitats.

Climate-Driven Shifts in Marine Species Ranges: Scaling from Organisms to Communities

The geographic distributions of marine species are changing rapidly, with leading range edges following climate poleward, deeper, and in other directions and trailing range edges often contracting in similar directions. These shifts have their roots in fine-scale interactions between organisms and their environment-including mosaics and gradients of temperature and oxygen-mediated by physiology, behavior, evolution, dispersal, and species interactions. These shifts reassemble food webs and can have dramatic consequences. Compared with species on land, marine species are more sensitive to changing climate but have a greater capacity for colonization. These differences suggest that species cope with climate change at different spatial scales in the two realms and that range shifts across wide spatial scales are a key mechanism at sea. Additional research is needed to understand how processes interact to promote or constrain range shifts, how the dominant responses vary among species, and how the emergent communities of the future ocean will function.

How relatedness between mates influences reproductive success: An experimental analysis of self-fertilization and biparental inbreeding in a marine bryozoan

Kin associations increase the potential for inbreeding. The potential for inbreeding does not, however, make inbreeding inevitable. Numerous factors influence whether inbreeding preference, avoidance, or tolerance evolves, and, in hermaphrodites where both self-fertilization and biparental inbreeding are possible, it remains particularly difficult to predict how selection acts on the overall inbreeding strategy, and to distinguish the type of inbreeding when making inferences from genetic markers. Therefore, we undertook an empirical analysis on an understudied type of mating system (spermcast mating in the marine bryozoan, Bugula neritina) that provides numerous opportunities for inbreeding preference, avoidance, and tolerance. We created experimental crosses, containing three generations from two populations to estimate how parental reproductive success varies across parental relatedness, ranging from self, siblings, and nonsiblings from within the same population. We found that the production of viable selfed offspring was extremely rare (only one colony produced three selfed offspring) and biparental inbreeding more common. Paternity analysis using 16 microsatellite markers confirmed outcrossing. The production of juveniles was lower for sib mating compared with nonsib mating. We found little evidence for consistent inbreeding, in terms of nonrandom mating, in adult samples collected from three populations, using multiple population genetic inferences. Our results suggest several testable hypotheses that potentially explain the overall mating and dispersal strategy in this species, including early inbreeding depression, inbreeding avoidance through cryptic mate choice, and differential dispersal distances of sperm and larvae.

Dispersal and population connectivity are phenotype dependent in a marine metapopulation

Larval dispersal is a key process determining population connectivity, metapopulation dynamics, and community structure in benthic marine ecosystems, yet the biophysical complexity of dispersal is not well understood. In this study, we investigate the interaction between disperser phenotype and hydrodynamics on larval dispersal pathways, using a temperate reef fish species, Trachinops caudimaculatus. We assessed the influence of larval traits on depth distribution and dispersal outcomes by: (i) using 24-h depth-stratified ichthyoplankton sampling, (ii) quantifying individual phenotypes using larval growth histories extracted from the sagittal otoliths of individual larvae, and (iii) simulating potential dispersal outcomes based on the empirical distribution of larval phenotypes and an advanced biological-physical ocean model. We found T. caudimaculatus larvae were vertically stratified with respect to phenotype, with high-quality phenotypes found in the bottom two depth strata, and poor-quality phenotypes found primarily at the surface. Our model showed high- and average-quality larvae experienced significantly higher local retention (more than double) and self-recruitment, and travelled shorter distances relative to poor-quality larvae. As populations are only connected when dispersers survive long enough to reproduce, determining how larval phenotype influences dispersal outcomes will be important for improving our understanding of marine population connectivity and persistence.

Temporal plasticity in habitat selection criteria explains patterns of animal dispersal

Patterns of dispersal behavior are often driven by the composition and configuration of suitable habitat in a matrix of unsuitable habitat. Interactions between animal behavior and landscapes can therefore influence population dynamics, population and species distributions, population genetic structure, and the evolution of behavior. Spatially explicit individual-based models (IBMs) are ideal tools for exploring the effects of landscape structure on dispersal. We developed an empirically parameterized IBM in the modeling framework SEARCH to simulate dispersal of translocated American martens in Wisconsin. We tested the hypothesis that a time-limited disperser should be willing to settle in lower quality habitat over time. To evaluate model performance, we used a pattern-oriented modeling approach. Our best model matched all empirical dispersal patterns (e.g., dispersal distance) except time to settlement. This model incorporated a required search phase as well as the mechanism for declining habitat selectivity over time, which represents the first demonstration of this hypothesis for a vertebrate species. We suggest that temporal plasticity in habitat selectivity allows individuals to maximize fitness by making a tradeoff between habitat quality and risk of mortality. Our IBM is pragmatic in that it addresses a management need for a species of conservation concern. However, our model is also paradigmatic in that we explicitly tested a theory of dispersal behavior. Linking these 2 approaches to ecological modeling can further the utility of individual-based modeling and provide direction for future theoretical and empirical work on animal behavior.

Both local presence and regional distribution of predator cues modulate prey colonisation in pond landscapes

Recent work on habitat selection has shown that the perceived quality of habitat patches may depend on the quality of adjacent patches. However, it is still unclear how local habitat selection cues can alter distribution patterns in metacommunities at a larger (regional) scale. We studied mosquito oviposition in pond landscapes that differed in the proportion of bad patches with fish predation risk. Our experiment provided conclusive evidence for two local and two regional types of habitat selection. Good patches near bad patches were avoided (local risk contagion) while more distant good patches experienced increased oviposition (regional compression). Oviposition in bad patches increased when located next to good patches (reward contagion) or when there were no good patches regionally present (regional compromise). This complex colonisation behaviour involving compromises at different spatial scales forces experimenters to reconsider the independence of spatial replicates and challenges available theories to predict species distribution patterns.

Clonal growth strategy, diversity and structure: A spatiotemporal response to sedimentation in tropical Cyperus papyrus swamps

Land degradation and soil erosion in the upper catchments of tropical lakes fringed by papyrus vegetation can result in a sediment load gradient from land to lakeward. Understanding the dynamics of clonal modules (ramets and genets) and growth strategies of plants on such a gradient in both space and time is critical for exploring a species adaptation and processes regulating population structure and differentiation. We assessed the spatial and temporal dynamics in clonal growth, diversity, and structure of an emergent macrophyte, Cyperus papyrus (papyrus), in response to two contrasting sedimentation regimes by combining morphological traits and genotype data using 20 microsatellite markers. A total of 636 ramets from six permanent plots (18 x 30 m) in three Ethiopian papyrus swamps, each with discrete sedimentation regimes (high vs. low) were sampled for two years. We found that ramets under the high sedimentation regime (HSR) were significantly clumped and denser than the sparse and spreading ramets under the low sedimentation regime (LSR). The HSR resulted in significantly different ramets with short culm height and girth diameter as compared to the LSR. These results indicated that C. papyrus ameliorates the effect of sedimentation by shifting clonal growth strategy from guerrilla (in LSR) to phalanx (in HSR). Clonal richness, size, dominance, and clonal subrange differed significantly between sediment regimes and studied time periods. Each swamp under HSR revealed a significantly high clonal richness (R = 0.80) as compared to the LSR (R = 0.48). Such discrepancy in clonal richness reflected the occurrence of initial and repeated seedling recruitment strategies as a response to different sedimentation regimes. Overall, our spatial and short-term temporal observations highlighted that HSR enhances clonal richness and decreases clonal subrange owing to repeated seedling recruitment and genets turnover.

Unsuccessful dispersal affects life history characteristics of natal populations: The role of dispersal related variation in vital rates

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Individual costs associated with dispersal morph expression carry over to negatively impact the natal population.

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Different dispersal scenarios and dispersal expression increase generation time but population growth rate declines.

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Increasing generation time is due to the addition of a life stage and to other life-history effects of the dispersal stage.

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We suggest that dispersing individuals that fail to disperse may affect the population dynamics of persistent natal populations.

Individuals that disperse from one habitat to another has consequences for individual fitness, population dynamics and gene flow. The fitness benefits accrued in the new habitat are traded off against costs associated with dispersal. Most studies focus on costs at settlement and effects on settlement populations; the influence of dispersal to natal populations is assessed by monitoring change in numbers due to emigration. However, the extent to which natal populations are affected when individuals that invest in dispersal fail to disperse/emigrate is unclear. Here, we use an Integral Projection Model (IPM) to assess how developing into a disperser affects natal population structure and growth. We do so using the bulb mite (Rhizoglyphus robini) as a study system. Bulb mites, in unfavourable environments, develop into a dispersal (deutonymph) stage during ontogeny; these individuals are called dispersers with individuals not developing into this stage called non-dispersers. We varied disperser expression and parameterised IPMs to describe three simulations of successful and unsuccessful dispersal: (i) ‘no dispersal’ - dispersal stage is excluded and demographic data are from non-disperser individuals; (ii) ‘false dispersal’ - dispersal stage included and demographic data from non-disperser individuals are used; (iii) ‘true dispersal’ - dispersal stage included and demographic data are from individuals that go through the dispersal stage and from non-disperser individuals. We found that the type of dispersal simulation (no dispersal < false dispersal < true dispersal) and disperser expression increases generation time and reduces lifetime reproductive success and population growth rate. Our findings show that disperser individuals that fail to leave, can change the structure and growth of natal populations.

Breeding habitat selection across spatial scales: is grass always greener on the other side?

Habitat selection theory predicts that natural selection should favor mechanisms allowing individuals to choose habitats associated with the highest fitness prospects. However, identifying sources of information on habitat quality that individuals use to choose their breeding habitat has proved to be difficult. It has also proven difficult to identify dispersal costs that prevent individuals from joining the highest-quality sites. A synthesis that integrates dispersal costs and habitat selection mechanisms across space has remained elusive. Because costs of dispersal are generally distance-dependent, we suggest that a habitat selection strategy of sequential proximity search (SPS) can be favored by natural selection. This strategy requires that animals make decisions at multiple scales: whether to stay or leave the previous breeding site, depending on reproductive success; then, if dispersal is chosen, use information on neighborhood habitat quality to decide whether to stay in the neighborhood or leave, expanding the search area until the nearest suitable site is chosen. SPS minimizes distance-dependent dispersal costs while maximizing benefits of gaining a better habitat. We found evidence of breeding dispersal behavior consistent with this strategy in a kittiwake population stratified into a spatial hierarchy from colonies to nest sites. We used a mixed sequential regression model to study dispersal decisions, indexed by breeding dispersal movement, of 2,558 individuals over 32 yr. Scale-dependent dispersal propensities of kittiwakes varied according to breeding status, breeding experience, sex and individual identity. We suggest that distance-dependent dispersal costs result from strong competition among kittiwakes for nest sites. Individual decisions regarding dispersal (whether to leave or not, and where to go) depend on nesting habitat quality as well as the competitive ability required to keep territory ownership in a previous site, or to acquire a new site; this ability varies according to distance between sites and individual characteristics. Additional studies are needed to establish the generality of SPS in habitat selection.

Ecologically relevant levels of multiple, common marine stressors suggest antagonistic effects

Stressors associated with global change will be experienced simultaneously and may act synergistically, so attempts to estimate the capacity of marine systems to cope with global change requires a multi-stressor approach. Because recent evidence suggests that stressor effects can be context-dependent, estimates of how stressors are experienced in ecologically realistic settings will be particularly valuable. To enhance our understanding of the interplay between environmental effects and the impact of multiple stressors from both natural and anthropogenic sources, we conducted a field experiment. We explored the impact of multiple, functionally varied stressors from both natural and anthropogenic sources experienced during early life history in a common sessile marine invertebrate, Bugula neritina. Natural spatial environmental variation induced differences in conspecific densities, allowing us to test for density-driven context-dependence of stressor effects. We indeed found density-dependent effects. Under high conspecific density, individual survival increased, which offset part of the negative effects of experiencing stressors. Experiencing multiple stressors early in life history translated to a decreased survival in the field, albeit the effects were not as drastic as we expected: our results are congruent with antagonistic stressor effects. We speculate that when individual stressors are more subtle, stressor synergies become less common.

The nose knows: linking sensory cue use, settlement decisions, and post-settlement survival in a temperate reef fish

Habitat selection by animals that migrate or disperse ultimately determines the biotic and abiotic environment they will experience in subsequent life stages. Intuitively, for habitat selection to be adaptive, animals should respond positively to cues produced by habitat characteristics that will enhance their fitness in the new environment. However, there are many examples of dispersing animals where individuals are attracted to cues produced by factors that reduce their fitness after arrival. In this study, we use a temperate reef fish to examine the relative importance of habitat-associated cues in habitat selection decisions, and assess whether use of these cues is adaptive across early life stages. We used a series of laboratory- and field-based manipulative experiments to test: (1) what habitat-associated cues are likely used to locate suitable habitat; (2) whether in situ settlement patterns reflect the cue response tested in the laboratory; and (3) whether the aspects of the habitat that stimulate settlement are the same as those that maximize survival. We observed a positive response to multiple habitat-associated cues, with conspecific cues eliciting the strongest behavioral response in laboratory choice experiments, and a strong inverse density-dependent relationship at settlement. Macroalgal cues also elicited a positive response at settlement, but were associated with higher mortality after settlement, suggesting that habitat selection decisions are not always adaptive. We argue that this non-intuitive behavior may still be adaptive if it improves fitness at an earlier life stage, as habitat selection behavior is the result of tradeoffs in fitness costs across multiple stages.

Ecological traps: current evidence and future directions

Ecological traps, which occur when animals mistakenly prefer habitats where their fitness is lower than in other available habitats following rapid environmental change, have important conservation and management implications. Empirical research has focused largely on assessing the behavioural effects of traps, by studying a small number of geographically close habitat patches. Traps, however, have also been defined in terms of their population-level effects (i.e. as preferred habitats of sufficiently low quality to cause population declines), and this is the scale most relevant for management. We systematically review the ecological traps literature to (i) describe the geographical and taxonomic distribution of efforts to study traps, (ii) examine how different traps vary in the strength of their effects on preference and fitness, (iii) evaluate the robustness of methods being used to identify traps, and (iv) determine whether the information required to assess the population-level consequences of traps has been considered. We use our results to discuss key knowledge gaps, propose improved methods to study traps, and highlight fruitful avenues for future research.

Modeled Population Connectivity across the Hawaiian Archipelago

We present the first comprehensive estimate of connectivity of passive pelagic particles released from coral reef habitat throughout the Hawaiian Archipelago. Potential connectivity is calculated using a Lagrangian particle transport model coupled offline with currents generated by an oceanographic circulation model, MITgcm. The connectivity matrices show a surprising degree of self-recruitment and directional dispersal towards the northwest, from the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI) to the northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI). We identify three predicted connectivity breaks in the archipelago, that is, areas in the mid and northern part of the archipelago that have limited connections with surrounding islands and reefs. Predicted regions of limited connectivity generally match observed patterns of genetic structure reported for coral reef species in the uninhabited NWHI, but multiple genetic breaks observed in the inhabited MHI are not explained by passive dispersal. The better congruence in our modeling results based on physical transport of passive particles in the low-lying atolls of the uninhabited NWHI, but not in the anthropogenically impacted high islands of the MHI begs the question: what ultimately controls connectivity in this system?

Connectivity structures local population dynamics: a long-term empirical test in a large metapopulation system

Ecological theory predicts that demographic connectivity structures the dynamics of local populations within metapopulation systems, but empirical support has been constrained by major limitations in data and methodology. We tested this prediction for giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera, a key habitat-forming species in temperate coastal ecosystems worldwide, in southern California, USA. We combined a long-term (22 years), large-scale (~500 km coastline), high-resolution census of abundance with novel patch delineation methods and an innovative connectivity measure incorporating oceanographic transport and source fecundity. Connectivity strongly predicted local dynamics (well-connected patches had lower probabilities of extinction and higher probabilities of colonization, leading to greater likelihoods of occupancy) but this relationship was mediated by patch size. Moreover, the relationship between connectivity and local population dynamics varied over time, possibly due to temporal variation in oceanographic transport processes. Surprisingly, connectivity had a smaller influence on colonization relative to extinction, possibly because local ecological factors differ greatly between extinct and extant patches. Our results provide the first comprehensive evidence that southern California giant kelp populations function as a metapopulation system, challenging the view that populations of this important foundation species are governed exclusively by self-replenishment.

Evaluating the metapopulation consequences of ecological traps

Ecological traps occur when environmental changes cause maladaptive habitat selection. Despite their relevance to metapopulations, ecological traps have been studied predominantly at local scales. How these local impacts scale up to affect the dynamics of spatially structured metapopulations in heterogeneous landscapes remains unexplored. We propose that assessing the metapopulation consequences of traps depends on a variety of factors that can be grouped into four categories: the probability of encounter, the likelihood of selection, the fitness costs of selection and species-specific vulnerability to these costs. We evaluate six hypotheses using a network-based metapopulation model to explore the relative importance of factors across these categories within a spatial context. Our model suggests (i) traps are most severe when they represent a large proportion of habitats, severely reduce fitness and are highly attractive, and (ii) species with high intrinsic fitness will be most susceptible. We provide the first evidence that (iii) traps may be beneficial for metapopulations in rare instances, and (iv) preferences for natal-like habitats can magnify the effects of traps. Our study provides important insight into the effects of traps at landscape scales, and highlights the need to explicitly consider spatial context to better understand and manage traps within metapopulations.

Patterns, causes, and consequences of marine larval dispersal

Quantifying the probability of larval exchange among marine populations is key to predicting local population dynamics and optimizing networks of marine protected areas. The pattern of connectivity among populations can be described by the measurement of a dispersal kernel. However, a statistically robust, empirical dispersal kernel has been lacking for any marine species. Here, we use genetic parentage analysis to quantify a dispersal kernel for the reef fish Elacatinus lori, demonstrating that dispersal declines exponentially with distance. The spatial scale of dispersal is an order of magnitude less than previous estimates-the median dispersal distance is just 1.7 km and no dispersal events exceed 16.4 km despite intensive sampling out to 30 km from source. Overlaid on this strong pattern is subtle spatial variation, but neither pelagic larval duration nor direction is associated with the probability of successful dispersal. Given the strong relationship between distance and dispersal, we show that distance-driven logistic models have strong power to predict dispersal probabilities. Moreover, connectivity matrices generated from these models are congruent with empirical estimates of spatial genetic structure, suggesting that the pattern of dispersal we uncovered reflects long-term patterns of gene flow. These results challenge assumptions regarding the spatial scale and presumed predictors of marine population connectivity. We conclude that if marine reserve networks aim to connect whole communities of fishes and conserve biodiversity broadly, then reserves that are close in space (<10 km) will accommodate those members of the community that are short-distance dispersers.

Consequences of variable larval dispersal pathways and resulting phenotypic mixtures to the dynamics of marine metapopulations

Larval dispersal can connect distant subpopulations, with important implications for marine population dynamics and persistence, biodiversity conservation and fisheries management. However, different dispersal pathways may affect the final phenotypes, and thus the performance and fitness of individuals that settle into subpopulations. Using otolith microchemical signatures that are indicative of 'dispersive' larvae (oceanic signatures) and 'non-dispersive' larvae (coastal signatures), we explore the population-level consequences of dispersal-induced variability in phenotypic mixtures for the common triplefin (a small reef fish). We evaluate lipid concentration and otolith microstructure and find that 'non-dispersive' larvae (i) have greater and less variable lipid reserves at settlement (and this variability attenuates at a slower rate), (ii) grow faster after settlement, and (iii) experience similar carry-over benefits of lipid reserves on post-settlement growth relative to 'dispersive' larvae. We then explore the consequences of phenotypic mixtures in a metapopulation model with two identical subpopulations replenished by variable contributions of 'dispersive' and 'non-dispersive' larvae and find that the resulting phenotypic mixtures can have profound effects on the size of the metapopulation. We show that, depending upon the patterns of connectivity, phenotypic mixtures can lead to larger metapopulations, suggesting dispersal-induced demographic heterogeneity may facilitate metapopulation persistence.

Spore sensitivity to sunlight and freezing can restrict dispersal in wood-decay fungi

Assessment of the costs and benefits of dispersal is central to understanding species' life-history strategies as well as explaining and predicting spatial population dynamics in the changing world. While mortality during active movement has received much attention, few have studied the costs of passive movement such as the airborne transport of fungal spores. Here, we examine the potential of extreme environmental conditions to cause dispersal mortality in wood-decay fungi. These fungi play a key role as decomposers and habitat creators in forest ecosystems and the populations of many species have declined due to habitat loss and fragmentation. We measured the effect of simulated solar radiation (including ultraviolet A and B) and freezing at -25°C on the spore germinability of 17 species. Both treatments but especially sunlight markedly reduced spore germinability in most species, and species with thin-walled spores were particularly light sensitive. Extrapolating the species' laboratory responses to natural irradiance conditions, we predict that sunlight is a relevant source of dispersal mortality at least at larger spatial scales. In addition, we found a positive effect of spore size on spore germinability, suggesting a trade-off between dispersal distance and establishment. We conclude that freezing and particularly sunlight can be important sources of dispersal mortality in wood-decay fungi which can make it difficult for some species to colonize isolated habitat patches and habitat edges.

Identifying the key biophysical drivers, connectivity outcomes, and metapopulation consequences of larval dispersal in the sea

BACKGROUND

Population connectivity, which is essential for the persistence of benthic marine metapopulations, depends on how life history traits and the environment interact to influence larval production, dispersal and survival. Although we have made significant advances in our understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of these individual processes, developing an approach that integrates the entire population connectivity process from reproduction, through dispersal, and to the recruitment of individuals has been difficult. We present a population connectivity modelling framework and diagnostic approach for quantifying the impact of i) life histories, ii) demographics, iii) larval dispersal, and iv) the physical seascape, on the structure of connectivity and metapopulation dynamics. We illustrate this approach using the subtidal rocky reef ecosystem of Port Phillip Bay, were we provide a broadly-applicable framework of population connectivity and quantitative methodology for evaluating the relative importance of individual factors in determining local and system outcomes.

RESULTS

The spatial characteristics of marine population connectivity are primarily influenced by larval mortality, the duration of the pelagic larval stage, and the settlement competency characteristics, with significant variability imposed by the geographic setting and the timing of larval release. The relative influence and the direction and strength of the main effects were strongly consistent among 10 connectivity-based metrics.

CONCLUSIONS

These important intrinsic factors (mortality, length of the pelagic larval stage, and the extent of the precompetency window) and the spatial and temporal variability represent key research priorities for advancing our understanding of the connectivity process and metapopulation outcomes.

Effect of elevated pCO2 on metabolic responses of porcelain crab (Petrolisthes cinctipes) Larvae exposed to subsequent salinity stress

Future climate change is predicted to alter the physical characteristics of oceans and estuaries, including pH, temperature, oxygen, and salinity. Investigating how species react to the influence of such multiple stressors is crucial for assessing how future environmental change will alter marine ecosystems. The timing of multiple stressors can also be important, since in some cases stressors arise simultaneously, while in others they occur in rapid succession. In this study, we investigated the effects of elevated pCO₂ on oxygen consumption by larvae of the intertidal porcelain crab Petrolisthes cinctipes when exposed to subsequent salinity stress. Such an exposure mimics how larvae under future acidified conditions will likely experience sudden runoff events such as those that occur seasonally along portions of the west coast of the U.S. and in other temperate systems, or how larvae encounter hypersaline waters when crossing density gradients via directed swimming. We raised larvae in the laboratory under ambient and predicted future pCO₂ levels (385 and 1000 µatm) for 10 days, and then moved them to seawater at ambient pCO₂ but with decreased, ambient, or elevated salinity, to monitor their respiration. While larvae raised under elevated pCO₂ or exposed to stressful salinity conditions alone did not exhibit higher respiration rates than larvae held in ambient conditions, larvae exposed to elevated pCO₂ followed by stressful salinity conditions consumed more oxygen. These results show that even when multiple stressors act sequentially rather than simultaneously, they can retain their capacity to detrimentally affect organisms.

Larval dispersal modeling of pearl oyster Pinctada margaritifera following realistic environmental and biological forcing in Ahe atoll lagoon

Studying the larval dispersal of bottom-dwelling species is necessary to understand their population dynamics and optimize their management. The black-lip pearl oyster (Pinctada margaritifera) is cultured extensively to produce black pearls, especially in French Polynesia's atoll lagoons. This aquaculture relies on spat collection, a process that can be optimized by understanding which factors influence larval dispersal. Here, we investigate the sensitivity of P. margaritifera larval dispersal kernel to both physical and biological factors in the lagoon of Ahe atoll. Specifically, using a validated 3D larval dispersal model, the variability of lagoon-scale connectivity is investigated against wind forcing, depth and location of larval release, destination location, vertical swimming behavior and pelagic larval duration (PLD) factors. The potential connectivity was spatially weighted according to both the natural and cultivated broodstock densities to provide a realistic view of connectivity. We found that the mean pattern of potential connectivity was driven by the southwest and northeast main barotropic circulation structures, with high retention levels in both. Destination locations, spawning sites and PLD were the main drivers of potential connectivity, explaining respectively 26%, 59% and 5% of the variance. Differences between potential and realistic connectivity showed the significant contribution of the pearl oyster broodstock location to its own dynamics. Realistic connectivity showed larger larval supply in the western destination locations, which are preferentially used by farmers for spat collection. In addition, larval supply in the same sectors was enhanced during summer wind conditions. These results provide new cues to understanding the dynamics of bottom-dwelling populations in atoll lagoons, and show how to take advantage of numerical models for pearl oyster management.

Beyond connectivity: how empirical methods can quantify population persistence to improve marine protected-area design

Demographic connectivity is a fundamental process influencing the dynamics and persistence of spatially structured populations. Consequently, quantifying connectivity is essential for properly designing networks of protected areas so that they achieve their core ecological objective of maintaining population persistence. Recently, many empirical studies in marine systems have provided essential, and historically challenging to obtain, data on patterns of larval dispersal and export from marine protected areas (MPAs). Here, we review the empirical studies that have directly quantified the origins and destinations of individual larvae and assess those studies' relevance to the theory of population persistence and MPA design objectives. We found that empirical studies often do not measure or present quantities that are relevant to assessing population persistence, even though most studies were motivated or contextualized by MPA applications. Persistence of spatial populations, like nonspatial populations, depends on replacement, whether individuals reproduce enough in their lifetime to replace themselves. In spatial populations, one needs to account for the effect of larval dispersal on future recruitment back to the local population through local retention and other connectivity pathways. The most commonly reported descriptor of larval dispersal was the fraction of recruitment from local origin (self-recruitment). Self-recruitment does not inform persistence-based MPA design because it is a fraction of those arriving, not a fraction of those leaving (local retention), so contains no information on replacement. Some studies presented connectivity matrices, which can inform assessments of persistence with additional knowledge of survival and fecundity after recruitment. Some studies collected data in addition to larval dispersal that could inform assessments of population persistence but which were not presented in that way. We describe how three pieces of empirical information are needed to fully describe population persistence in a network of MPAs: (1) lifetime fecundity, (2) the proportion of larvae that are locally retained (or the full connectivity matrix), and (3) survival rate after recruitment. We conclude by linking theory and data to provide detailed guidance to empiricists and practitioners on field sampling design and data presentation that better informs the MPA objective of population persistence.

Environmental gradients predict the genetic population structure of a coral reef fish in the Red Sea

The relatively recent fields of terrestrial landscape and marine seascape genetics seek to identify the influence of biophysical habitat features on the spatial genetic structure of populations or individuals. Over the last few years, there has been accumulating evidence for the effect of environmental heterogeneity on patterns of gene flow and connectivity in marine systems. Here, we investigate the population genetic patterns of an anemonefish, Amphiprion bicinctus, along the Saudi Arabian coast of the Red Sea. We collected nearly one thousand samples from 19 locations, spanning approximately 1500 km, and genotyped them at 38 microsatellite loci. Patterns of gene flow appeared to follow a stepping-stone model along the northern and central Red Sea, which was disrupted by a distinct genetic break at a latitude of approximately 19°N. The Red Sea is characterized by pronounced environmental gradients along its axis, roughly separating the northern and central from the southern basin. Using mean chlorophyll-a concentrations as a proxy for this gradient, we ran tests of isolation by distance (IBD, R(2) = 0.52) and isolation by environment (IBE, R(2) = 0.64), as well as combined models using partial Mantel tests and multiple matrix regression with randomization (MMRR). We found that genetic structure across our sampling sites may be best explained by a combined model of IBD and IBE (Mantel: R(2) = 0.71, MMRR: R(2) = 0.86). Our results highlight the potential key role of environmental patchiness in shaping patterns of gene flow in species with pelagic larval dispersal. We support growing calls for the integration of biophysical habitat characteristics into future studies of population genetic structure.

Mechanisms driving the density-area relationship in a saproxylic beetle

Mechanisms underlying density-area relationships (correlations between population density and patch size) have rarely been tested experimentally. It is often assumed that higher density on large patches is evidence that large patches are high quality (i.e. have greater survival and reproduction), but the same pattern could result from disproportionate movement from small to large patches. Movement-based and within-patch processes must be experimentally separated to show that large patches are indeed of higher quality, but few studies have done so. We experimentally tested movement-based and within-patch hypotheses to explain the positive density-area relationship observed for a saproxylic (decayed wood-dependent) beetle, Odontotaenius disjunctus Illiger (Coleoptera: Passalidae). In separate experiments we quantified (1) immigration into and (2) finite growth rate within logs (=patches) that varied in size and density of conspecific beetles. A log was 11.7-fold [95 % confidence interval (CI) 3.4-40.8) and 10.5-fold (95 % CI 2.7-40.9) more likely to contain a new immigrant if it was large or contained a conspecific pair of beetles, respectively. Neither log size nor conspecific density was associated with changes in finite growth rate that would lead to higher density: decreased log size and increased conspecific density reduced finite growth rate in direct proportion to the loss in available resources per mating pair. We conclude that movement behavior rather than habitat quality is responsible for the positive density-area relationship for O. disjunctus. An important implication of our results is that population density is an imperfect indicator of habitat quality.