A national surveillance system for newly acquired HIV infection in Australia. National HIV Surveillance Committee

Projecting HIV transmission in Japan

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the epidemiology of HIV in Japan, though newly-identified cases amongst men who have sex with men (MSM) show an increasing trend. Predictions of future trends in the HIV epidemic are essential to identify suitable interventions.

METHODS

A deterministic, compartmental model was developed that incorporated risk groups, disease stages, and treatment and testing parameters. This model was calibrated against current figures on new infections and run over 30 years to identify trends in prevalence amongst MSM, low-risk men and low-risk women. Multivariate sensitivity analysis was used to estimate sensitivity ranges for all outcomes.

RESULTS

Without new interventions amongst MSM in Japan, HIV prevalence will climb from its current rate of 2.1% to 10.4% (sensitivity range 7.4% to 18.7%), while HIV prevalence among low-risk men and women will likely decline. With small changes in safer sex behavior and testing rates, HIV prevalence can remain stable or even decline amongst MSM.

CONCLUSIONS

Japan is at risk of an epidemic of HIV amongst MSM unless significant changes are made to its current public health intervention framework. More research is necessary to understand the key drivers of the epidemic in Japan.

Second Generation of HIV Surveillance System: A Pattern for Iran

BACKGROUND

For the purpose of minimizing the HIV/AIDS epidemic effects, one of the programs is the promotion of scientific methods and setting of the suitable surveillance systems. The present research was conducted to design the HIV/AIDS surveillance system in Iran applying WHO recommendations and the experience of some countries.

METHODS

In 2009, based on the country's requirements, the HIV/AIDS surveillance system was proposed and designed for Iran. The Delphi technique was utilized to find the views of experts. Data analysis was conducted based on a comparison of the attributes of the HIV/AIDS surveillance systems in the countries under consideration using a descriptive and theoretical analysis.

RESULTS

The model was approved obtaining the final score of 36.3 out of 44, viz 82.5%.

CONCLUSION

Designing and performing of the HIV/AIDS surveillance pattern in the direction of "second generation of HIV/AIDS surveillance" can be considered as an important step in the improvement of the patient's control and precaution of HIV/AIDS.

Trends in all cause and viral liver disease-related hospitalizations in people with hepatitis B or C: a population-based linkage study

Background

Previous studies have reported an excess burden of cancer and mortality in populations with chronic hepatitis B (HBV) or C (HCV), but there are limited data comparing hospitalization rates. In this study, we compared hospitalization rates for all causes and viral liver disease in people notified with HBV or HCV in New South Wales (NSW), Australia.

Methods

HBV and HCV notifications were linked to their hospital (July 2000-June 2006), HIV and death records. Standardized hospitalization ratios (SHRs) were calculated using rates for the NSW population. Random effects Poisson regression was used to examine temporal trends.

Results

The SHR for all causes and non alcoholic liver disease was two-fold higher in the HCV cohort compared with the HBV cohort (SHRs 1.4 (95%CI: 1.4-1.4) v 0.6 (95%CI: 0.6-0.6) and 14.0 (95%CI: 12.7-15.4) v 5.4 (95%CI: 4.5-6.4), respectively), whilst the opposite was seen for primary liver cancer (SHRs 16.2 (95%CI: 13.8-19.1) v 29.1 (95%CI: 24.7-34.2)). HIV co-infection doubled the SHR except for primary liver cancer in the HCV/HIV cohort. In HBV and HCV mono-infected cohorts, all cause hospitalization rates declined and primary liver cancer rates increased, whilst rates for non alcoholic liver disease increased by 9% in the HCV cohort but decreased by 14% in the HBV cohort (P < 0.001).

Conclusion

Hospital-related morbidity overall and for non alcoholic liver disease was considerably higher for HCV than HBV. Improved treatment of advanced HBV-related liver disease may explain why HBV liver-related morbidity declined. In contrast, HCV liver-related morbidity increased and improved treatments, especially for advanced liver disease, and higher levels of treatment uptake are required to reverse this trend.

Trends in HIV incidence in homosexual men in developed countries

Objectives: To describe trends in HIV notifications and in other measures of HIV incidence in homosexual men in developed countries. Methods: A literature search was conducted using PubMed. In addition to the peer-reviewed literature, data on HIV surveillance trends were sought by searching websites of surveillance authorities in developed countries. Results: The availability of long-term HIV surveillance data varied considerably. However, in almost all jurisdictions in which such data were available, notifications of new HIV diagnoses among homosexual men have increased, mostly since the late 1990s. The magnitude of this increase varied, but was more than 50% in many countries. There were much fewer data available on trends in direct measures of HIV incidence in homosexual men, and increases in HIV testing rates may have contributed to the increases in HIV diagnoses in many countries. However, since the late 1990s, several clinic- and community-based cohort studies in Europe and North America reported increasing incidence. Conclusion: There were increases in HIV notifications in homosexual men in almost all developed countries, starting in the late 1990s and continuing to 2006. Although increases in HIV testing probably contributed to the increases in some settings, limited cohort data do support the existence of a true increase in HIV incidence in European and North American countries. Improved monitoring of HIV incidence in homosexual men at the population level is required to allow more timely assessment of the drivers underlying such trends.

Profiling of HIV clinic patients to determine the prevalence and characteristics of recent infections

Patients newly attending the government HIV clinic in Hong Kong were studied for the prevalence and characteristics of recent HIV infection, which was defined as having a negative HIV antibody test and/or seroconversion illness within one year of a first positive antibody result. Fifty-nine (12.0%) of 492 HIV-positive patients first seen from 2001 to 2004 were determined to be recently infected. This likely represented the lower bound of the real situation. Compared with non-recent infections on univariate analysis, recent cases were more likely to be men who have sex with men (OR 2.23; 95%CI, 1.23-4.05), never married (OR 1.96; 95%CI, 1.03-3.89), had tertiary or above education (OR 3.93; 95%CI, 1.65-10.09) and with a baseline CD4>=500 cells/ul (OR 3.65; 95%CI, 1.87-6.93). Upon multivariate analysis, tertiary or above education (adjusted OR 4.23; 95%CI, 1.76-10.16) and CD4>=500 cells/ul at diagnosis (adjusted OR 3.58; 95%CI, 1.88-6.84) remained independent variables. HIV clinics are feasible settings for collecting epidemiological information of on-going infection. Differences in the profile between recent and non-recent cases may shed light on targeting efforts to prevent new HIV infections.

Modeling trends in HIV incidence among homosexual men in Australia 1995-2006

BACKGROUND

Previous mathematical models have indicated that any decrease in HIV incidence in homosexual men due to decreased infectiousness from antiretroviral treatment (ARV) may be offset by modest increases in unsafe sex. The aims of this study were to assess the effects of ARV use and increasing unprotected anal intercourse with casual partners (UAIC) in homosexual men on HIV incidence during 1995-2001 and to project HIV incidence depending on trends in ARV use and UAIC.

METHODS

A mathematical model of HIV transmission among homosexual men in Australia was developed. HIV incidence during 1995-2001 was estimated assuming that 70% of men in whom HIV was diagnosed received ARVs and assuming a 10% annual increase in UAIC. For 2001-2006, scenarios included ARV levels remaining at 70% or declining to 50% by 2006, combined with UAIC levels remaining at the 2001 level or continuing to increase annually by 10%.

FINDINGS

The number of incident HIV cases per year was predicted to have declined during 1996-1998 due to the introduction of effective ARVs, with a slow increase during 1998-2001 due to increased levels of UAIC when use of therapies was fairly stable. From 2001, a continued increase in UAIC was predicted to lead to a rise in HIV incidence. A rise in UAIC combined with a moderate decline in ARV use could lead to a 50% increase in HIV incidence by 2006.

INTERPRETATION

These models suggest that widespread ARV use has had some effect in reducing HIV incidence among homosexual men in Australia. However, if current trends in UAIC and ARV use continue, a resurgent HIV epidemic is predicted.

HIV/AIDS surveillance systems in Australia

We review the HIV/AIDS reporting protocols in Australia, and describe the technical components of surveillance and its guiding principles, including a strict adherence to confidentiality at all levels. The majority of AIDS diagnoses in Australia have occurred in men who acquired HIV infection through male-to-male sex. The annual incidence of AIDS peaked in 1994, and then declined sharply over the subsequent 4 years. Advances in treatment effectiveness have focused attention on ensuring that people with HIV infection have access to optimal therapy, and emphasized the role of AIDS case reports as indicators of treatment failure. Analyses of the date of HIV diagnosis in people with AIDS have been used as indicators and predictors of undiagnosed HIV infection in the population. Australia's linkage of program funding to AIDS case counts provides an incentive for both health departments and community-based organizations to actively support AIDS surveillance activities. The challenge for surveillance is to maintain vigilance for shifts in HIV infection rates, or in behavior patterns that may be related to transmission.

HIV seroconverters: using surveillance to characterise people with incident HIV infection in Victoria, Australia

This paper describes a cohort of people living in Victoria, Australia, diagnosed with incident HIV infection and identified through routine HIV surveillance. All HIV diagnoses notified to the Victorian HIV Registry between January 1997 and September 1998 were included. Infections were classified as incident if there was a prior negative test and/or seroconversion illness within 12 months of the first positive HIV test. During the study period there were 277 notifications received of which 70 (25%) were incident infections (seroconversions). People with incident infection were aged 36 years (+/- 10), from an Anglo background (76%) and living in Melbourne (91%). Seroconverters were more likely to have acquired their infection in Victoria (76%), through male-to-male sexual contact (86%), and from casual or anonymous partners (67%). Cohorts of individuals with incident HIV infection provide a valuable resource for understanding the dynamics of HIV acquisition and natural history of the infection.

Decreasing rates of Kaposi's sarcoma and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in the era of potent combination anti-retroviral therapy

OBJECTIVE

To describe the changing incidence of Kaposi's sarcoma (KS) and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) in people with HIV in Australia during the time period of introduction of potent combination anti-retroviral therapy.

DESIGN

A national, population-based linkage study of cancer and HIV registration data.

METHODS

We calculated person-year rates of KS and NHL in people after reporting of HIV diagnosis. Trends in cancer incidence rates were examined, based on four time periods defined by the availability of specific anti-retroviral therapies.

RESULTS

Linkage identified 206 cases of KS and 235 cases of NHL in 8108 people reported with HIV infection. There was an increasing trend in NHL incidence rates over the four time periods (P for trend, 0.012), but incidence for the period since the availability of the new therapies was significantly lower than that for the period immediately prior (incidence rate ratio 0.58; 95% confidence interval, 0.36-0.92). Incidence of KS had been decreasing prior to the new therapies and declined further since their widespread use (P for trend, 0.045).

CONCLUSIONS

Population-based incidence rates of AIDS related KS and NHL have decreased since the widespread use of potent anti-retroviral therapies in Australia. NHL incidence decreased less than KS, and NHL is now the most common AIDS-associated cancer in Australia.

Does HIV reporting by name deter testing? MESH Study Group

OBJECTIVE

Name-based HIV reporting is controversial in the United States because of concerns that it may deter high-risk persons from being tested. We sought to determine whether persons at risk of HIV infection knew their state's HIV reporting policy and whether they had delayed or avoided testing because of it.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional anonymous survey.

METHODS

We interviewed 2404 participants in one of three high-risk groups: men who have sex with men (MSM), heterosexuals attending a sexually transmitted disease (STD) clinic, and street-recruited injection drug users (IDU). Participants were asked standardized questions about their knowledge of reporting policies and reasons for having delayed or avoided testing. We recruited in eight US states: four with name-based reporting and four without; all offered anonymous testing at certain sites.

RESULTS

Fewer than 25% correctly identified their state's HIV reporting policy. Over 50% stated they did not know whether their state used name-based reporting. Of the total, 480 participants (20%) had never been tested. Of these, 17% from states with name-based reporting selected concern about reporting as a reason for not testing compared with 14% from states without name-based reporting (P = 0.5). Comparing previously tested participants from states with name-based reporting to those from states without, concern about HIV reporting was given as a reason for delaying testing by 26% compared with 13% of IDU (P < 0.001), and for 26% compared with 19% of MSM (P = 0.06).

CONCLUSION

Most participants did not know their state's HIV reporting policy. Name-based reporting policies were not associated with avoiding HIV testing because of worry about reporting, although they may have contributed to delays in testing among some IDU.

Joint analysis of HIV and AIDS surveillance data in back-calculation

AIDS surveillance data are the main source of information to perform back-calculation of HIV incidence. We propose a method to incorporate additional information gained by linkage with an HIV surveillance system, containing data on the time of first positive HIV test. In this paper we generalize an earlier method that was developed to use HIV testing data available only for AIDS cases. The new method also makes use of cases with an HIV positive test who have not yet developed AIDS, typically a substantial proportion of the HIV-infected population. Furthermore, we use a more realistic model for the HIV testing rate, incorporating dependence on both time since infection and calendar time. The method makes use of an EM algorithm with generalized additive model smoothing, and is applied to data from Veneto, a region of northern Italy. Our results show that HIV incidence in Veneto peaked in the late 1980s, and decreased thereafter. Importantly, the HIV incidence estimates based on joint analysis of HIV and AIDS surveillance data are more efficient than estimates based on AIDS surveillance data alone. Our estimates also show a decreasing trend in the HIV testing rate over time, which leads to the conclusion that the interval between HIV infection and first positive test has lengthened over time. Furthermore, it is found that for infected individuals, the probability of seeking on HIV test is highest soon after infection.

Reaching homosexual men for HIV surveillance through a gay magazine

HIV surveillance in homosexual men is poor in most countries, as this risk group is difficult to sample. The aim of this study is to test the feasibility of reaching homosexual men for national HIV surveillance using gay community media. In 1989, a questionnaire on general gay issues, with a section on AIDS, was included in a widely sold gay magazine in the Netherlands. Among 17,700 sold copies, 1134 responses were obtained from males (6%). Of these, 669 men (59%) gave their address, of which in turn 84% responded to a questionnaire on risk behaviour in 1990. In 1991/1992, the 669 men were asked to participate in an HIV serosurvey, in which eventually 308 participated with a blood test (46%) and 147 without (total 68%). Participation in the serosurvey with blood test was associated with reporting multiple partners in 1989. Twenty participants were infected (6.5%). In logistic regression analysis, risk factors for infection were recent unprotected receptive anal intercourse with multiple partners (odds ratio (OR): 10.7; 95% confidence interval (CI): (2.18-52.2); one partner 1.17 (0.31-4.48); none 1) and living in Amsterdam (OR: 3.92; 95% CI: (0.99-15.5); urbanised western Netherlands 2.15 (0.57-8.03); elsewhere 1), while a high educational level was protective (OR: 0.29 (0.08-0.96); middle 0.41 (0.11-1.54); low 1). Among those who participated in 1991/1992, risk behaviour increased between 1989 and 1991/1992 (reporting multiple casual partners rose from 55% to 64%; reporting inconsistent condom use with receptive anal sex from 58% to 71%). Using a predictive model which included self-reported serostatus in 1989, the HIV prevalence rate in 1991/1992 among all male responders to the 1989 questionnaire was estimated to be 5.3% (95% CI: 3.1 7.7%). In conclusion, unless initial response is improved, recruitment through a gay magazine may not allow reliable estimates of HIV prevalence in homosexual men. However, it can be useful at the national level for monitoring changes in prevalence and risk behaviour over time, geographical differences and risk factors for infection.

Temporal trends in reasons for and result of HIV-testing among women in Rome, Italy

To describe the trend in the reasons for and result of women's HIV testing, systematic data was gathered for 11,523 consecutive women during pre-and post-test visits at a major counseling and testing (CT) site of Rome, Italy, June 1985-July 1996. The number of tested women and the proportion of female clients attending the CT site significantly increased during the study period (p < 0.001), mostly because of reported sexual risk or when triggered by pregnancy. A significant increasing trend in the proportion of women who had one prior test (30% overall) was observed in all groups, apart from IDU. Newly diagnosed HIV infections were 319 (2.8%). The HIV prevalence was 27% in 1985-1987, when 66.7% of cases were IDUs, and decreased to 1.3% in 1994-1996, when 53.7% of cases were women reporting HIV infected partners. The findings suggest that information on the potential risk of HIV transmission has permeated the female population. The shift of newly diagnosed infections from IDUs towards women reporting sexual exposure, suggests the need for targeting preventive efforts to these population groups. Underlying reasons for multiple testing need further analysis.

Health benefits and risks of reporting HIV-infected individuals by name

With more treatment options emerging for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, the policy of reporting HIV-infected individuals by name merits reevaluation. This paper reviews the benefits and risks of name reporting of persons infected with HIV. Public health departments have linked name reporting with medical referrals, risk reduction counseling, and partner notification programs. Yet some studies indicate that people are less likely to be tested for HIV infection when name reporting is implemented. Whether name reporting actually improves individual or public health, therefore justifying the increased risk of loss of confidentiality and possibly reduced testing rates, remains unknown. The lack of health outcome data on name reporting allows beliefs rather than facts to dominate debate about this policy. Before this practice is more widely adopted, a determination should be made as to whether the potential benefits of name reporting outweigh the risks.

The changing distribution of HIV infection: HIV surveillance in Lazio, Italy, 1985 through 1994. Lazio HIV Surveillance Collaborative Group

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to describe the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) surveillance system in Lazio, Italy, and to analyze exposure patterns and time trends of HIV serodiagnoses from January 1985 to December 1994.

METHODS

A linkage procedure made it possible to identify newly diagnosed HIV cases. Anonymous information was collected on demographic and exposure factors for each individual.

RESULTS

Of 35,425 reports, 13,660 were newly diagnosed HIV cases, 70.9% of them in men. The proportion of women increased at the beginning of the study period (the male:female ratio declined from 3.5 in 1985 to 2.6 in 1986) and then remained stable. The proportion of subjects reporting heterosexual exposure, in men and women, respectively, increased from 1.5% and 2.0% in 1985 to 21.2% and 60.8% in 1994. Starting in 1992, heterosexual contact has become the main transmission route for women.

CONCLUSIONS

A changing pattern in the HIV epidemic is emerging, with a shift in the incidence of HIV diagnosis from "core" high-risk groups (drug injectors) to the large low-risk population (the general population) exposed through heterosexual transmission. This is probably occurring in other areas (e.g., large urban centers in the United States) with a similar epidemiological situation.

Incidence of HIV infection in a cohort of homosexually active men

The purpose of this study was to estimate the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in a cohort of homosexually active men in Sydney. In 1984-85 the Sydney AIDS Prospective Study enrolled homosexually active men, who were followed by six-monthly visits, although regular contact with most participants ceased in the early 1990s. In 1993-94 a major effort was made to establish the HIV status of all participants who had attended more than once. Of the 1075 men enrolled, 528 (49 per cent) were negative at enrollment and had at least one further documented HIV test. The annual incidence rate of HIV infection was highest in the early years of the study, 1984 (9.6 per cent) and 1986 (5.0 per cent), and remained low from 1987 (1.9 per cent) to 1994 (0.0 per cent). The incidence of HIV infection was higher among men aged under 34 years at enrollment and men who reported more than four sexual partners in the six months before enrollment, but these associations disappeared by 1987. The decrease in HIV incidence is consistent with findings from other cohorts followed for this length of time.

HIV, AIDS, and Drug Abuse in the International Sector

AIDS has become the leading cause of death among people under age 45 in many major cities throughout the United States and Western Europe, and the projected mortality rate for those infected with HIV is virtually 100%. As of July 5, 1996, the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Programme on AIDS reported a cumulative 1,393,649 AIDS cases from 193 countries (WHO 1996). This represented a 19% increase in actual cases reported a year earlier. However, the WHO estimates that allowing for incomplete reporting and under-diagnosis, there were probably some 7.7 million cumulative AIDS cases by mid-1996. In terms of HIV, the WHO estimates that there has been a cumulative distribution of almost 30 million HIV-infected individuals as of mid-1996 (WHO 1996). The joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) estimated that some 20.1 million adults were living with HIV infection or AIDS at the close of 1995. By the year 2000, UNAIDS estimates project that 30 to 40 million people will have been infected with HIV worldwide (UNAIDS 1996). With more than 19 million HIV-infected adults, Sub-Saharan Africa remains the most affected region of the world (WHO 1996). The predominant mode of transmission since the beginning of the epidemic has been through heterosexual contact. The reuse of unsterilized hypodermic needles in transfusions and inoculations is also relatively common in many African nations. In a number of countries in that part of the world, furthermore, HIV infection has been spread through population movements due to situations of conflict or poverty (Decosas et al. 1995). The lower status of women in a number of African nations has also contributed to the rapid spread of the epidemic (UNAIDS 1996). HIV infections in African women outnumber men by a ratio of 6 to 5. More than 6 million women of childbearing age have been affected, and UNAIDS believes that as many as I million children may already have been infected either prior to or during birth, or during breast feeding (UNAIDS 1996). Another contributing factor has been the full range of sexually transmitted diseases, which increase the risk of HIV infection if left untreated (UNAIDS 1996).