A Predictive Scoring System Based on Inflammatory and Tumor Markers for Gastric Cancer Patients Undergoing Curative Resection

Combining systemic inflammatory response index and albumin fibrinogen ratio to predict early serious complications and prognosis after resectable gastric cancer

BACKGROUND

Gastric cancer has a high incidence and fatality rate, and surgery is the preferred course of treatment. Nonetheless, patient survival rates are still low, and the incidence of major postoperative complications cannot be disregarded. The systemic inflammatory response, nutritional level, and coagulation status are key factors affecting the postoperative recovery and prognosis of gastric cancer patients. The systemic inflammatory response index (SIRI) and the albumin fibrinogen ratio (AFR) are two valuable comprehensive indicators of the severity and prognosis of systemic inflammation in various medical conditions.

AIM

To assess the clinical importance and prognostic significance of the SIRI scores and the AFR on early postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing radical gastric cancer surgery.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of the clinicopathological characteristics and relevant laboratory indices of 568 gastric cancer patients from January 2018 to December 2019. We calculated and compared two indicators of inflammation and then examined the diagnostic ability of combined SIRI and AFR values for serious early postoperative complications. We scored the patients and categorized them into three groups based on their SIRI and AFR levels. COX analysis was used to compare the three groups of patients the prognostic value of various preoperative SIRI-AFR scores for 5-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS).

RESULTS

SIRI-AFR scores were an independent risk factor for prognosis [OS: P = 0.004; hazards ratio (HR) = 3.134; DFS: P < 0.001; HR = 3.543] and had the highest diagnostic power (area under the curve: 0.779; 95% confidence interval: 0.737-0.820) for early serious complications in patients with gastric cancer. The tumor-node-metastasis stage (P = 0.001), perioperative transfusion (P = 0.044), positive carcinoembryonic antigen (P = 0.014) findings, and major postoperative complications (P = 0.011) were factors associated with prognosis.

CONCLUSION

Preoperative SIRI and AFR values were significantly associated with early postoperative survival and the occurrence of severe complications in gastric cancer patients.

Development and validation of a nomogram for patients with stage II/III gastric adenocarcinoma after radical surgery

BACKGROUND

We aimed to construct nomograms based on clinicopathological features and routine preoperative hematological indices to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with stage II/III gastric adenocarcinoma (GA) after radical resection.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 468 patients with stage II/III GA after curative gastrectomy between 2012 and 2018; 70% of the patients were randomly assigned to the training set (n = 327) and the rest were assigned to the validation set (n = 141). The nomogram was constructed from independent predictors derived from the Cox regression in the training set. Using the consistency index, the calibration and the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves were used to evaluate the accuracy of the nomogram. Decision curve analysis was used to assess the value of the model in clinical applications. Patients were further divided into low- and high-risk groups based on the nomogram risk score.

RESULTS

Multivariate Cox model identified depth of invasion, lymph node invasion, tumor differentiation, adjuvant chemotherapy, CA724, and platelet-albumin ratio as covariates associated with CSS and DFS. CA199 is a risk factor unique to CSS. The nomogram constructed using the results of the multivariate analysis showed high accuracy with a consistency index of 0.771 (CSS) and 0.771 (DFS). Moreover, the area under the curve values for the 3-and 5-year CSS were 0.868 and 0.918, and the corresponding values for DFS were 0.872 and 0.919, respectively. The nomogram had a greater clinical benefit than the TNM staging system. High-risk patients based on the nomogram had a worse prognosis than low-risk patients.

CONCLUSION

The prognostic nomogram for patients with stage II/III GA after radical gastrectomy established in this study has a good predictive ability, which is helpful for doctors to accurately evaluate the prognosis of patients to make more reasonable treatment plans.

Prognostic Value of Combination of Inflammatory and Tumor Markers in Resectable Gastric Cancer

BACKGROUND

Inflammatory response and tumor marker levels have been shown to correlate with the prognosis in several human tumors. However, only a few studies on these markers have been performed in gastric cancer (GC) patients; the clinical significance of the combined markers is unclear. We aimed to evaluate the role of the combination of preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) for predicting the prognosis of patients with GC.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 458 patients who underwent gastrectomy with curative intent between January 2013 and July 2014 in the second hospital of Lanzhou University. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was performed to determine the cut-off values for biomarkers, and their prognostic values were assessed using the Kaplan-Meier curve. The combined score indicators were established based on the optimal cut-off values, which range from 0 to 2. Prognostic significances for overall survival (OS) were assessed by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Nomogram was used as a visual supplement for the prognostic score system, and the predictive accuracy and discriminative ability were determined by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve.

RESULTS

The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS were 66.2% (n = 303), 42.8% (n = 196), and 40.2% (n = 184) in all 458 patients, respectively. The high NLR (≥1.96), PLR (≥126), CA19-9 (≥27 U/mL), and CEA (≥ 5 ng/mL) were associated with poor prognosis of GC patients. The NLR + CA19-9 score indicator proved to be related to tumor size, lymph node metastasis, vascular invasion, perineural invasion, T stage, N stage, TNM stage, PLR, and CEA in patients with GC and an independent prognostic factor for prediction of 5-year OS (score 1: HR = 1.423, 95%CI: 1.049-1.929, P = 0.023; score 2: HR = 2.740, 95%CI: 1.882-3.990, P < 0.001). NLR + CA19-9 has a better predictive ability than other combined or single score indicators based on inflammation and tumor markers (AUC = 0.662, 95%CI: 0.616-0.705, P < 0.001). Moreover, a nomogram was established by the significant characteristics in the multivariate analysis for OS, which represented high accuracy (C-index = 0.692, 95%CI: 0.675-0.708).

CONCLUSION

NLR + CA19-9 can independently predict the overall survival of patients with gastric cancer after surgery. The prognostic nomogram based on NLR + CA19-9 is a convenient, economical, and effective prognostic system for clinical practice.

Prognostic Score System Using Preoperative Inflammatory, Nutritional and Tumor Markers to Predict Prognosis for Gastric Cancer: A Two-Center Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

Gastric cancer (GC) is the fourth leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Our study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of preoperative inflammatory, nutritional and tumor markers and develop an effective prognostic score system to predict the prognosis of GC patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 1587 consecutive GC patients who received curative gastrectomy from two medical centers. A novel prognostic score system was proposed based on independently preoperative markers associated with overall survival (OS) of GC patients. A nomogram based on prognostic score system was further established and validated internally and externally.

RESULTS

Based on multivariate analysis in the training set, a novel BLC (body mass index-lymphocyte-carbohydrate antigen 19-9) score system was proposed, which showed an effective predictability of OS in GC patients (log-rank P < 0.001). Moreover, receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed that BLC had better performance in predicting OS than the traditional prognostic markers. The C-index of the BLC based-nomogram was 0.710 (95% CI 0.686-0.734), and the areas under ROC curves for predicting 3- and 5-year OS were 0.781 (95% CI 0.750-0.813) and 0.755 (95% CI 0.723-0.786), respectively, which were higher than those of tumor node metastasis (TNM) staging system alone. The calibration curve for probability of 3- and 5-year OS rate showed a good fitting effect between prediction by nomogram and actual observation. Verification in the internal and external validation sets showed results consistent with those in the training set.

CONCLUSIONS

The BLC combining inflammatory, nutritional and tumor markers was an independent prognostic predictor for GC patients, and the nomogram based on BLC could accurately predict the personalized survival of patients with GC.