Clinical applications of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) in hepatic medicine

The value of dynamic changes in FT3 level for predicting 90-day prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients

OBJECTIVE

To explore the effect of dynamic changes in free triiodothyronine (FT3) level for predicting the 90 day prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF).

METHODS

The clinical data of 122 hospitalised patients with HBV-ACLF between September 2018 and January 2020 were collected and divided into a survival group (77 cases) and a death group (45 cases) according to the 90 day prognosis. We statistically analysed the characteristics of FT3 changes in the two groups of patients. Binary logistic regression one-way analysis was used to assess the degree of influence of each factor. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve and receiver operating characteristic curve were used to evaluate the effect of a single change in FT3 level difference (single △FT3) and the FT3 level change range (△FT3 range) in predicting the 90-day prognosis of patients.

RESULTS

There were only three types of changes in FT3 levels, which included 19 (15.6%) cases of continuous normal type, 35 (28.7%) cases of continuous decrease type and 68 (55.7%) cases of U-shaped change type. The difference in survival curves between the three types of patients was statistically significant (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The dynamic change type of FT3 is related to the disease severity and 90-day prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF. The single FT3 value and FT3 range could be used as a predictive factor for the 90-day prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF. These results have a degree of research value and are worth further exploration in the future.

Using machine learning methods to predict 28-day mortality in patients with hepatic encephalopathy

BACKGROUND

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is associated with marked increases in morbidity and mortality for cirrhosis patients. This study aimed to develop and validate machine learning (ML) models to predict 28-day mortality for patients with HE.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV database. Patients from MIMIC-IV were randomized into training and validation cohorts in a ratio of 7:3. Training cohort was used for establishing the model while validation cohort was used for validation. The outcome was defined as 28-day mortality. Predictors were identified by recursive feature elimination (RFE) within 24 h of intensive care unit (ICU) admission. The area under the curve (AUC) and calibration curve were used to determine the predictive performance of different ML models.

RESULTS

In the MIMIC-IV database, 601 patients were eventually diagnosed with HE. Of these, 112 (18.64%) experienced death within 28 days. Acute physiology score III (APSIII), sepsis related organ failure assessment (SOFA), international normalized ratio (INR), total bilirubin (TBIL), albumin, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), acute kidney injury (AKI) and mechanical ventilation were identified as independent risk factors. Validation set indicated that the artificial neural network (NNET) model had the highest AUC of 0.837 (95% CI:0.774-0.901). Furthermore, in the calibration curve, the NNET model was also well-calibrated (P = 0.323), which means that it can better predict the 28-day mortality in HE patients. Additionally, the performance of the NNET is superior to existing scores, including Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na).

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, the NNET model demonstrated better discrimination in predicting 28-day mortality as compared to other models. This developed model could potentially improve the early detection of HE with high mortality, subsequently improving clinical outcomes in these patients with HE, but further external prospective validation is still required.

Prevalence and predictors of post-liver transplantation metabolic bone diseases

INTRODUCTION

Post-liver transplantation (LTx) bone diseases have been poorly investigated. The frequency of bone diseases (osteopenia and osteoporosis) after LTx is unknown.

AIM OF THE STUDY

To define prevalence and risk factors of bone disorders following LTx.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This prospective study was conducted on 100 consecutive adult patients who underwent living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) at the National Liver Institute (NLI) and survived longer than a year. Bone mineral density (BMD) was evaluated by dual-energy X-ray absorption (DEXA), as well as other pre- and postoperative risk factors.

RESULTS

The frequencies of osteopenia and osteoporosis were found to be 14% and 8% among post-LTx patients. Seven recipients of the osteoporotic group were males, with mean age, and body mass index (BMI) before and after LTx 49.5 ±7.4 years, 24.1 ±4.7 kg/m2 and 22.8 ±1.5 kg/m2, respectively. A significant association between hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis, liver disease severity according to Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score, and alcoholism with decreased post-LTx BMD was substantiated (p < 0.05, 0.006). Post-LTx development of diabetes mellitus (DM), weight gain, use of corticosteroids and basiliximab all significantly affected decreased post-LTx BMD (p < 0.05). However, binary regression revealed that post-LTx occurrence of DM (p = 0.012, odds ratio [OR] = 0.099), the severity of liver disease (p = 0.023, OR = 0.217), and HCV (p = 0.011, OR = 0.173) are the main independent predictors of metabolic bone disease (MBD) occurrence one year after LTx.

CONCLUSIONS

Post-LTx bone disorders are not infrequent complications and should be more considered in those with HCV-related severe liver disease or developed DM after LTx.

Combined B-type Natriuretic Peptide as strong predictor of short-term mortality in patients after Liver Transplantation

Background: B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) is a well-known predictor for prognosis in patients with cardiac and renal diseases. However, there is a lack of studies in patients with advanced hepatic disease, especially patients who underwent liver transplantation (LT). We evaluated whether BNP could predict the prognosis of patients who underwent LT. Material and Methods: The data from a total of 187 patients who underwent LT were collected retrospectively. The serum levels of BNP were acquired at four time points, the pre-anhepatic (T1), anhepatic (T2), and neohepatic phases (T3), and on postoperative day 1 (T4). The patients were dichotomized into survival and non-survival groups for 1-month mortality after LT. Combined BNP (cBNP) was calculated based on conditional logistic regression analysis of pairwise serum BNP measurements at two time points, T2 and T4. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was analyzed to determine the diagnostic accuracy and cut-off value of the predictive models, including cBNP. Results: Fourteen patients (7.5 %) expired within one month after LT. The leading cause of death was sepsis (N = 9, 64.3 %). The MELD and MELD-Na scores had an acceptable predictive ability for 1-month mortality (AUROC = 0.714, and 0.690, respectively). The BNPs at each time point (T1 - T4) showed excellent predictive ability (AUROC = 0.864, 0.962, 0.913, and 0.963, respectively). The cBNP value had an outstanding predictive ability for 1-month mortality after LT (AUROC = 0.976). The optimal cutoff values for cBNP at T2 and T4 were 137 and 187, respectively. Conclusions: The cBNP model showed the improved predictive ability for mortality within 1-month of LT. It could help clinicians stratify mortality risk and be a useful biomarker in patients undergoing LT.

Conservative treatment versus elective repair of umbilical hernia in patients with liver cirrhosis and ascites: results of a randomized controlled trial (CRUCIAL trial)

Purpose

To establish optimal management of patients with an umbilical hernia complicated by liver cirrhosis and ascites.

Methods

Patients with an umbilical hernia and liver cirrhosis and ascites were randomly assigned to receive either elective repair or conservative treatment. The primary endpoint was overall morbidity related to the umbilical hernia or its treatment after 24 months of follow-up. Secondary endpoints included the severity of these hernia-related complications, quality of life, and cumulative hernia recurrence rate.

Results

Thirty-four patients were included in the study. Sixteen patients were randomly assigned to elective repair and 18 to conservative treatment. After 24 months, 8 patients (50%) assigned to elective repair compared to 14 patients (77.8%) assigned to conservative treatment had a complication related to the umbilical hernia or its repair. A recurrent hernia was reported in 16.7% of patients who underwent repair. For the secondary endpoint, quality of life through the physical (PCS) and mental component score (MCS) showed no significant differences between groups at 12 months of follow-up (mean difference PCS 11.95, 95% CI − 0.87 to 24.77; MCS 10.04, 95% CI − 2.78 to 22.86).

Conclusion

This trial could not show a relevant difference in overall morbidity after 24 months of follow-up in favor of elective umbilical hernia repair, because of the limited number of patients included. However, elective repair of umbilical hernia in patients with liver cirrhosis and ascites appears feasible, nudging its implementation into daily practice further, particularly for patients experiencing complaints.

Trial registration

Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01421550, on 23 August 2011.

Hepatic Encephalopathy and Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis Improve Cirrhosis Outcome Prediction: A Modified Seven-Stage Model as a Clinical Alternative to MELD

Classification of cirrhosis based on clinical stages is rapid and based on five stages at present. Two other relevant events, hepatic encephalopathy (HE) and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP), can be considered in a clinical perspective but no study has implemented a seven-stage classification and confirmed its value before. In addition, long-term validation of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) in large cohorts of patients with cirrhosis and comparison with clinical findings are insufficient. Therefore, we performed a study to address these items. From the Chang-Gung Research Database (CGRD), 20,782 patients with cirrhosis were enrolled for an historical survival study. The MELD score, the five-stage clinical score (i.e., occurrence of esophageal varices (EV), EV bleeding, ascites, sepsis) and a novel seven-stage clinical score (i.e., occurrence of EV, EV bleeding, ascites, sepsis, HE, SBP) were compared with their Cox models by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The addition of HE and SBP to the seven-stage model had a 5% better prediction result than the five-stage model did in the survival ROC analysis. The result showed that the seven clinical stages are associated with an increased risk for mortality. However, the predicted performances of the seven-stage model and MELD system are likely equivalent. In conclusion, the study (i) proved that clinical staging of cirrhosis based on seven items/stages had higher prognostic value than the five-stage model and (ii) confirmed the validity of the MELD criteria vs. clinical assessment.

Does Preoperative MELD Score Predict Adverse Outcomes Following Pancreatic Resection: an ACS NSQIP Analysis

BACKGROUND

Higher MELD scores correlate with adverse operative outcomes regardless of the presence of liver disease, but their impact on pancreatectomy outcomes remains undefined. We aimed to compare 30-day adverse postoperative outcomes of patients undergoing elective pancreatectomy stratified by MELD score.

METHODS

Elective pancreatoduodenectomies (PDs) and distal pancreatectomies (DPs) were identified from the 2014-2016 ACS NSQIP Procedure Targeted Pancreatectomy Participant Use Data Files. Outcomes examined included mortality, cardiopulmonary complications, prolonged postoperative length-of-stay, discharge not-to-home, transfusion, POPF, CR-POPF, any complication, and serious complication. Outcomes were compared between MELD score strata (< 11 vs. ≥ 11) as established by the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS). Multivariable logistic regression models were constructed to examine the risk-adjusted impact of MELD score on outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 7580 PDs and 3295 DPs had evaluable MELD scores. Of these, 1701 PDs and 223 DPs had a MELD score ≥ 11. PDs with MELD ≥ 11 exhibited higher risk for mortality (OR = 2.07, p < 0.001), discharge not-to-home (OR = 1.26, p = 0.005), and transfusion (OR = 1.7, p < 0.001). DP patients with MELD ≥ 11 demonstrated prolonged LOS (OR = 1.75, p < 0.001), discharge not-to-home (OR = 1.83, p = 0.01), and transfusion (OR = 2.78, p < 0.001). In PD, MELD ≥ 11 was independently predictive of 30-day mortality (OR = 1.69, p = 0.007) and transfusion (OR = 1.55, p < 0.001). In DP, MELD ≥ 11 was independently predictive of prolonged LOS (OR = 1.42, p = 0.026) and transfusion (OR = 2.3, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

A MELD score ≥ 11 is associated with a near twofold increase in the odds of mortality following pancreatoduodenectomy. The MELD score is an objective assessment that aids in risk-stratifying patients undergoing pancreatectomy.

A novel variant of the 13C-methacetin liver function breath test that eliminates the confounding effect of individual differences in systemic CO2 kinetics

The principle of dynamic liver function breath tests is founded on the administration of a ¹³C-labeled drug and subsequent monitoring of ¹³CO₂ in the breath, quantified as time series delta over natural baseline ¹³CO₂ (DOB) liberated from the drug during hepatic CYP-dependent detoxification. One confounding factor limiting the diagnostic value of such tests is that only a fraction of the liberated ¹³CO₂ is immediately exhaled, while another fraction is taken up by body compartments from which it returns with delay to the plasma. The aims of this study were to establish a novel variant of the methacetin-based breath test LiMAx that allows to estimate and to eliminate the confounding effect of systemic ¹³CO₂ distribution on the DOB curve and thus enables a more reliable assessment of the hepatic detoxification capacity compared with the conventional LiMAx test. We designed a new test variant (named "2DOB") consisting of two consecutive phases. Phase 1 is initiated by the intravenous administration of ¹³C-bicarbonate. Phase 2 starts about 30 min later with the intravenous administration of the ¹³C-labelled test drug. Using compartment modelling, the resulting 2-phasic DOB curve yields the rate constants for the irreversible elimination and the reversible exchange of plasma ¹³CO₂ with body compartments (phase 1) and for the detoxification and exchange of the drug with body compartments (phase 2). We carried out the 2DOB test with the test drug ¹³C-methacetin in 16 subjects with chronic liver pathologies and 22 normal subjects, who also underwent the conventional LiMAx test. Individual differences in the systemic CO₂ kinetics can lead to deviations up to a factor of 2 in the maximum of DOB curves (coefficient of variation CV ≈ 0.2) which, in particular, may hamper the discrimination between subjects with normal or mildly impaired detoxification capacities. The novel test revealed that a significant portion of the drug is not immediately metabolized, but transiently taken up into a storage compartment. Intriguingly, not only the hepatic detoxification rate but also the storage capacity of the drug, turned out to be indicative for a normal liver function. We thus used both parameters to define a scoring function which yielded an excellent disease classification (AUC = 0.95) and a high correlation with the MELD score (R_Spearman = 0.92). The novel test variant 2DOB promises a significant improvement in the assessment of impaired hepatic detoxification capacity. The suitability of the test for the reliable characterization of the natural history of chronic liver diseases (fatty liver-fibrosis-cirrhosis) has to be assessed in further studies.

Level and Value of T Cell-derived Circulating Microparticles in Liver Cirrhosis Patients

BACKGROUND/AIM

We examined the hypothesis that T cell-derived-circulating microparticles (MPs) are increased in liver-cirrhosis (LC) patients compared to normal subjects and are also increased in chronic hepatitis compared to acute-decompensated-liver cirrhosis (ADLC).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 66 LC patients, including 35 with ADLC and 31 with non-decompensated-LC (NDLC), were enrolled in the study. Ten volunteers served as controls.

RESULTS

Flow-cytometric analysis showed that circulating levels of T-cell derived MPs (i.e., total MPs and CD4+/CD8+/CD54+MPs) were higher in LC patients than in the controls (all p<0.003). Total MPs and CD8+MPs were higher in NDLC than in ADLC patients. There were good correlations between CD8+MPs and ADLC as well as between total MPs and chronic hepatitis. Multivariate-linear-regression analysis showed that NDLC was independently predictive of increased circulating CD8+MPs levels (p<0.05) and chronic hepatitis independently predictive of increased circulating total MPs levels (p<0.001)/CD4+MPs (p<0.05).

CONCLUSION

Circulating levels of T-cell-derived MPs were increased in ADLC patients and were even more elevated in NDLC patients compared to healthy-control subjects.

Serum cholinesterase: A predictive biomarker of hepatic reserves in chronic hepatitis D

AIM

To determine the predictive performance of cholinesterase compared to existing prognostic models in evaluating liver function in patients with chronic hepatitis D.

METHODS

In an observational, cross-sectional and retrospective study, consecutive patients with hepatitis D cirrhosis were evaluated. Demographic, clinical and laboratory parameters were recorded. Serum cholinesterase levels were correlated with existing scoring models for chronic liver disease and Liver function tests. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed to find an optimal cholinesterase level predicting ascites, Child Turcotte Pugh (CTP) score ≥ 10, model for end stage liver disease (MELD) score ≥ 15, baseline-event-anticipation (BEA) score for hepatitis D ≥ 5 and the aspartate transaminase to Platelet Ratio Index (APRI) ≥ 1.5.

RESULTS

This study investigated 233 patients with chronic liver disease due to hepatitis D; 192 were male, median age 42 (16-69 years). Fifty patients had ascites and 15 had encephalopathy. One hundred and sixty-seven (71.7%) were in Child class A, 52 (22.3%) in Child class B and 14 (5.0%) in class C. A MELD score of 15 or more was seen in 24 patients. Cholinesterase levels correlated well with the INR, albumin, CTP score, MELD, MELD sodium, BEA and APRI scores (P < 0.001 each). Area under the ROC curve for ascites, CTP ≥ 10, MELD ≥ 15, BEA ≥ 5, APRI ≥ 1.5 was 0.836, 0.966, 0.913, 0.871 and 0.825 respectively (P < 0.001 each). Cut off values of cholinesterase (IU/L) for predicting ascites, CTP ≥ 10, MELD ≥ 15, BEA ≥ 5 and APRI ≥ 1.5 were < 3812, < 2853, < 2829, < 4719 and < 3954 with a sensitivity of 80%, 100%, 91.67%, 82.50%, 58.0% and specificity of 81.97%, 84.79%, 87.56%, 77.06% and 55.64% respectively.

CONCLUSION

Serum cholinesterase demonstrates promising correlations with serum albumin, INR and CTP, MELD, BEA and APRI scores and is predictive of liver reserves in hepatitis D cirrhosis.

The Role of Ischemia Modified Albumin as a Biomarker in Patients with Chronic Liver Disease

INTRODUCTION

Chronic Liver Disease (CLD) is characterised by gradual destruction of liver tissue over time. Ischemia Modified Albumin (IMA) is an upcoming biomarker shown to be elevated in conditions associated with ischemia and oxidative stress. Albumin levels are greatly reduced in patients with CLD and studying its alterations will provide essential information regarding the molecular changes occurring to it.

AIM

The study aims to estimate IMA and IMA/Albumin ratio in patients with CLD and to correlate it with parameters assessing liver function and the Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study consisted of 43 CLD patients as test subjects and 28 apparently healthy individuals as controls. Multiple parameters assessing liver function like albumin, bilirubin, aspartate transaminase (AST), alanine transaminase (ALT), Gamma Glutamyl Transpeptidase (GGT), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), Prothrombin Time (PT) INR and creatinine were estimated and the MELD score calculated. Serum IMA expressed as Absorbance Units (ABSU) was estimated using the Albumin Cobalt Binding test (ABT). Student's t-test and correlation coefficient was used for statistical analysis.

RESULTS

Serum IMA was significantly higher in CLD patients (0.5320 ± 0.1677) as compared to the control group (0.3203 ± 0.1257) with a p-value of <0.0001. The IMA/Albumin ratio was also significantly higher (0.2035 ± 0.0970) in patients with CLD compared to control group (0.0714 ± 0.0283) with a p-value of <0.0001. IMA has a negative correlation with albumin. The IMA/Albumin ratio shows positive correlation with MELD score, bilirubin and ALP. There was no correlation with ALT, AST, GGT and PT INR.

CONCLUSION

Decreased serum albumin correlates with increase in IMA in CLD could indicate a qualitative change and not merely a quantitative reduction of albumin. IMA can serve as a biomarker to assess the disease severity and prognosis of CLD patients.

Low Serum Lysosomal Acid Lipase Activity Correlates with Advanced Liver Disease

Fatty liver has become the most common liver disorder and is recognized as a major health burden in the Western world. The causes for disease progression are not fully elucidated but lysosomal impairment is suggested. Here we evaluate a possible role for lysosomal acid lipase (LAL) activity in liver disease. To study LAL levels in patients with microvesicular, idiopathic cirrhosis and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Medical records of patients with microvesicular steatosis, cryptogenic cirrhosis and NAFLD, diagnosed on the basis of liver biopsies, were included in the study. Measured serum LAL activity was correlated to clinical, laboratory, imaging and pathological data. No patient exhibited LAL activity compatible with genetic LAL deficiency. However, serum LAL activity inversely predicted liver disease severity. A LAL level of 0.5 was the most sensitive for detecting both histologic and noninvasive markers for disease severity, including lower white blood cell count and calcium, and elevated γ-glutamyltransferase, creatinine, glucose, glycated hemoglobin, uric acid and coagulation function. Serum LAL activity <0.5 indicates severe liver injury in patients with fatty liver and cirrhosis. Further studies should define the direct role of LAL in liver disease severity and consider the possibility of replacement therapy.

Intravenous immunoglobulins in liver transplant patients: Perspectives of clinical immune modulation

Shortage of appropriate donor grafts is the foremost current problem in organ transplantation. As a logical consequence, waiting times have extended and pretransplant mortality rates were significantly increasing. The implementation of a priority-based liver allocation system using the model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score helped to reduce waiting list mortality in liver transplantation (LT). However, due to an escalating organ scarcity, pre-LT MELD scores have significantly increased and liver recipients became more complex in recent years. This has finally led to posttransplant decreasing survival rates, attributed mainly to elevated rates of infectious and immunologic complications. To meet this challenging development, an increasing number of extended criteria donor grafts are currently accepted, which may, however, aggravate the patients’ infectious and immunologic risk profiles. The administration of intravenous immunoglobulins (IVIg) is an established treatment in patients with immune deficiencies and other antibody-mediated diseases. In addition, IVIg was shown to be useful in treatment of several disorders caused by deterioration of the cellular immune system. It proved to be effective in preventing hyperacute rejection in highly sensitized kidney and heart transplants. In the liver transplant setting, the administration of specific Ig against hepatitis B virus is current standard in post-LT antiviral prophylaxis. The mechanisms of action of IVIg are complex and not fully understood. However, there is increasing experimental and clinical evidence that IVIg has an immuno-balancing impact by a combination of immuno-supporting and immuno-suppressive properties. It may be suggested that, especially in the context of a worsening organ shortage with all resulting clinical implications, liver transplant patients should benefit from immuno-regulatory capabilities of IVIg. In this review, perspectives of immune modulation by IVIg and impact on outcome in liver transplant patients are described.

Transfusion management and immunohematologic complications in liver transplantation: experience of a single institution

OBJECTIVE

Liver transplantation (LT) has traditionally been associated with major blood loss and consequently high blood transfusion requirements. Our objective was to analyze transfusion management and incidence of immunohematologic complications in patients undergoing LT at our institution.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of immunohematologic events and transfusion outcomes was carried out at La Fe University Hospital in Valencia. Data from 654 patients were reviewed: 654 underwent only one LT while 36 underwent second LT.

RESULTS

Patients received a median of 3 red blood cell (RBC) concentrates, 2 platelets concentrates (PCs) and 2 fresh frozen plasma units (FFPs). Variables significantly influencing RBC transfusions were: the MELD score, hemoglobin levels, and the platelet counts before LT. 27 patients (4.1%) had a positive antibody screening before transplant. Immunohematologic events occurred in 8% of the patients, mostly in the first month after LT, and involved hemolysis in 13 cases. Mortality was significantly higher in patients developing immunohematologic disorders (42.8 vs. 18.3%; p < 0.001). In the multivariable analysis, only ABO minor incompatibility between donor and recipient significantly increased the appearance of immunohematologic incidences (OR 4.92, 95% CI 2.31-10.50; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Transfusion management of patients that underwent LT can be complicated by immunohematologic problems. Blood banks should implement the DAT test in each transfusion to detect them.