Combined use of short-term and long-term cardiovascular risk scores in primary prevention: an assessment of clinical utility

Risk prediction models for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease: A systematic assessment with particular reference to Qatar

Background: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is a common disease in the State of Qatar and results in considerable morbidity, impairment of quality of life and mortality. The American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) is currently used in Qatar to identify those at high risk of ASCVD. However, it is unclear if this is the optimal ASCVD risk prediction model for use in Qatar's ethnically diverse population.

Aims: This systematic review aimed to identify, assess the methodological quality of and compare the properties of established ASCVD risk prediction models for the Qatari population.

Methods: Two reviewers performed head-to-head comparisons of established ASCVD risk calculators systematically. Studies were independently screened according to predefined eligibility criteria and critically appraised using Prediction Model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool. Data were descriptively summarized and narratively synthesized with reporting of key statistical properties of the models.

Results: We identified 20,487 studies, of which 41 studies met our eligibility criteria. We identified 16 unique risk prediction models. Overall, 50% (n = 8) of the risk prediction models were judged to be at low risk of bias. Only 13% of the studies (n = 2) were judged at low risk of bias for applicability, namely, PREDICT and QRISK3.Only the PREDICT risk calculator scored low risk in both domains.

Conclusions: There is no existing ASCVD risk calculator particularly well suited for use in Qatar's ethnically diverse population. Of the available models, PREDICT and QRISK3 appear most appropriate because of their inclusion of ethnicity. In the absence of a locally derived ASCVD for Qatar, there is merit in a formal head-to-head comparison between PCE, which is currently in use, and PREDICT and QRISK3.

Occupational class differences in ankle-brachial index and pulse wave velocity measurements to detect subclinical vascular disease

BACKGROUND

High pulse wave velocity (PWV) and low ankle brachial index (ABI) have been proposed as surrogate end-points for cardiovascular disease (CVD).

OBJECTIVES

In a cross-sectional setting, we aimed at assessing the distributions of PWV and ABI among occupational classes (OC) in a population-based ever-employed salaried sample.

METHODS

We enrolled 1388 salaried CVD-free workers attending a CVD population-based survey, the RoCAV study, and classified them into four OC, based on current or last job title: manager/director (MD), non-manual (NMW), skilled-manual (SMW) and (UMW) unskilled-manual workers. We derived brachial-ankle PWV and ABI from four-limb blood pressures measurements, then carotid-femoral PWV (cfPWV) was estimated. We estimated the OC gradients in cfPWV and ABI using linear and logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Compared to MD (reference category), UMW had higher age- and BMI-adjusted cfPWV mean values both in men (0.63 m/s; 95%CI:0.11-1.16) and women (1.60 m/s; 0.43-2.77), only marginally reduced when adjusting for CVD risk factors. Decreased ABI mean values were also detected in lower OC. The overall detection rate of abnormal cfPWV (≥12 m/s) or ABI (≤0.9) values was 28%. Compared to MD, the prevalence of abnormal cfPWV or ABI was higher in NMW (OR=1.77; 95%CI:1.12-2.79), SMW (1.71; 1.05-2.78) and UMW (2.72; 1.65-4.50). Adjustment for CVD risk factors used in risk score equations did not change the results.

DISCUSSION

We found a higher prevalence of abnormal values of arterial stiffness measures in lower OC, and these differences were not explained by traditional CVD risk factors. These may be presumably determined by additional work- and environmental-related risk factors.

A 10- and 15-year performance analysis of ESC/EAS and ACC/AHA cardiovascular risk scores in a Southern European cohort

Background

A key strategy for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the use of risk prediction algorithms. We aimed to investigate the predictive ability of SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Estimation) and PCE (Pooled Cohort Equations) systems for atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk in Portugal, a low CVD risk country, at the 10-year landmark and at a longer, 15-year follow-up.

Methods

The SCORE and PCE 10-year risk estimates were calculated for 455 and 448 patients, respectively. Discrimination was assessed by Harrell’s C-statistic. Calibration was analyzed by standardized incidence ratios (SIR).

Results

During the 10-year follow-up, 7 fatal ASCVD events (the SCORE outcome) and 32 any ASCVD events (the PCE outcome) occurred. The SCORE system showed good discrimination (C-statistic 0.83), while the PCE showed poor discrimination (C-statistic 0.62). Calibration was similar for both systems, according to SIR: SCORE, 0.3 (95% CI 0.1–0.7); PCE, 0.5 (95% CI 0.4–0.7). Globally, both 10-year fatal ASCVD risk and any ASCVD risk were overestimated in the overall population and men. However, the risk was underestimated by both systems in women. Despite an overestimation of 15-year fatal ASCVD by SCORE, the 15-year any ASCVD observed incidence was 1.8 times the 10-year incidence among men and 1.4 times among women. This acceleration of CVD risk was more relevant in the lowest classes of ASCVD risk.

Conclusion

In this prospective, contemporary, Portuguese cohort, the SCORE had better discriminatory power and similar calibration compared to PCE. However, both risk scores underestimated 10-year ASCVD risk in women.