[Impact of the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on the southern area of Santiago (Chile), 2009-2015Efeito da vacina pneumocócica 10-valente conjugada na região sul de Santiago, Chile, 2009-2015]

Invasive pneumococcal disease in Latin America and the Caribbean: Serotype distribution, disease burden, and impact of vaccination. A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Invasive pneumococcal diseases (IPD) are associated with high morbidity, mortality, and health costs worldwide, particularly in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Surveillance about the distribution of serotypes causing IPD and the impact of pneumococcal vaccination is an important epidemiological tool to monitor disease activity trends, inform public health decision-making, and implement relevant prevention and control measures.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the serotype distribution for IPD and the related disease burden in LAC before, during, and after implementing the pneumococcal vaccine immunization program in LAC.

METHODS

Systematic literature review following Cochrane methods of studies from LAC. We evaluated the impact of the pneumococcal vaccine on hospitalization and death during or after hospitalizations due to pneumococcal disease and serotype-specific disease over time. We also analyzed the incidence of serotyped IPD in pneumococcal conjugate vaccine PCV10 and PCV13. The protocol was registered in PROSPERO (ID: CRD42023392097).

RESULTS

155 epidemiological studies were screened and provided epidemiological data on IPD. Meta-analysis of invasive diseases in children <5 years old found that 57%-65% of causative serotypes were included in PCV10 and 66%-84% in PCV13. After PCV introduction, vaccine serotypes declined in IPD, and the emergence of non-vaccine serotypes varied by country.

CONCLUSIONS

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines significantly reduced IPD and shifted serotype distribution in Latin America and the Caribbean. PCV10/PCV13 covered 57-84% of serotypes in children under 5, with marked decline in PCV serotypes post-vaccination. Continuous surveillance remains crucial for monitoring evolving serotypes and informing public health action.

Impact of waterpipe tobacco taxation on consumption, government revenue and premature deaths averted in Jordan, Lebanon and Palestine: a simulation study

INTRODUCTION

Despite the high prevalence of waterpipe tobacco smoking in the Eastern Mediterranean region, evidence supporting its fiscal measures is limited. We modelled the impact of waterpipe tobacco-specific excise taxes on consumption, government revenue and premature deaths averted in Jordan, Lebanon and Palestine.

METHODS

We developed a simulation model using country-specific and market share-specific price, consumption and price elasticity data from WHO, UN Comtrade and nationally representative surveys. We modelled increases to specific excise taxes to meet a 35.9% tax burden on 20 g of waterpipe tobacco in Lebanon and Jordan, in line with the global average, and to double government revenues from excise duties in Palestine, which has surpassed this average.

RESULTS

Specific excise tax was raised by $1.14 ($0.18-$1.32) in Jordan, $2.41 ($0.03-$2.44) in Lebanon (alongside removal of ad valorem taxes) and $2.39 ($1.72-$4.11) in Palestine per 20 g of waterpipe tobacco. Government revenue increased by $126.3 million in Jordan, $53.8 million in Lebanon and $162.4 million in Palestine while waterpipes smoked decreased by 32.4% in Jordan, 71.0% in Lebanon and 16.3% in Palestine. The corresponding numbers of premature deaths averted annually were approximately 162 000; 1 000 000; and 52 000.

DISCUSSION

Increases in waterpipe tobacco-specific excise taxes substantially reduce smoking and increase government revenue and averted premature deaths in Jordan, Lebanon and Palestine. This has positive implications for both public health and financing and should be considered a policy priority.

Framing, moral foundations and health taxes: interpretive analysis of Ethiopia's tobacco excise tax policy passage

BACKGROUND

In 2019-2020, the Ethiopian government ratified a suite of legislative measures that includes levying a tax on tobacco products. This study aims to examine stakeholders' involvement, position, power and perception regarding the Ethiopian Food and Drug Authority (EFDA) bill (Proclamation No.1112/2019). This includes their meaning-making and interaction with each other during the bill's formulation, adoption and implementation stages.

METHODS

We employed a mixed-methods design drawing on three sources of data: (1) policy documents and media articles from government and/or civil society groups (n=27), (2) audio and video transcripts of parliamentary debates and (3) qualitative stakeholder interviews.

RESULTS

Policy actors in both the public health camp and tobacco industry employed several framing moves, engaged in distinctive patterns of moral rhetoric, and strategically invoked moral languages to galvanise support for their policy objectives. Central to this framing debate are issues of public health and the danger of tobacco, and the protection of 'the economy and personal freedom'. The public health camp's arguments and persuasiveness-which led to the passage of the EFDA bill-centred around discrediting tobacco industry's cost-benefit assessments through frame disconnection, or by polarising their own position that the financial, psychological and lost productivity costs incurred by tobacco use outweighs any tax revenue.

CONCLUSIONS

A successful cultivation of an epistemic community and engagement of policy entrepreneurs-both from government agencies and civil society organisations-was critical in creating a united front and a compelling affirmative policy narrative, thereby influence excise tax policy outcomes.

Using LASSO Regression to Estimate the Population-Level Impact of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) protect against diseases caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae, such as meningitis, bacteremia, and pneumonia. It is challenging to estimate their population-level impact due to the lack of a perfect control population and the subtleness of signals when the endpoint-such as all-cause pneumonia-is nonspecific. Here we present a new approach for estimating the impact of PCVs: using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression to select variables in a synthetic control model to predict the counterfactual outcome for vaccine impact inference. We first used a simulation study based on hospitalization data from Mexico (2000-2013) to test the performance of LASSO and established methods, including the synthetic control model with Bayesian variable selection (SC). We found that LASSO achieved accurate and precise estimation, even in complex simulation scenarios where the association between the outcome and all control variables was noncausal. We then applied LASSO to real-world hospitalization data from Chile (2001-2012), Ecuador (2001-2012), Mexico (2000-2013), and the United States (1996-2005), and found that it yielded estimates of vaccine impact similar to SC. The LASSO method is accurate and easily implementable and can be applied to study the impact of PCVs and other vaccines.

Systematic review on the impact of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine ten valent (PCV10) or thirteen valent (PCV13) on all-cause, radiologically confirmed and severe pneumonia hospitalisation rates and pneumonia mortality in children 0-9 years old

Background

There is an ongoing need to assess the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) to guide the use of these potentially valuable but under-utilized vaccines against pneumonia, which is one of the most common causes of post-neonatal mortality.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review of the literature on PCV10 and PCV13 impact on all-cause, radiologically confirmed and severe pneumonia hospitalisation rates as well as all-cause and pneumonia-specific mortality rates. We included studies that were published from 2003 onwards, had a post-licensure observational study design, and reported on any of our defined outcomes in children aged between 0-9 years. We derived incidence rates (IRs), incidence rate ratios (IRRs) or percent differences (%). We assessed all studies for risk of bias using the Effective Public Health Practice Project (EPHPP) quality assessment tool.

Results

We identified a total of 1885 studies and included 43 comparing one or more of the following hospitalised outcomes of interest: all-cause pneumonia (n = 27), severe pneumonia (n = 6), all-cause empyema (n = 8), radiologically confirmed pneumonia (n = 8), pneumococcal pneumonia (n = 7), and pneumonia mortality (n = 10). No studies evaluated all-cause mortality. Studies were conducted in all WHO regions except South East Asia Region (SEAR) and low- or middle-income countries (LMICs) in the Western Pacific Region (WPR). Among children <5 years old, PCV impact ranged from 7% to 60% for all-cause pneumonia hospitalisation, 8% to 90% for severe pneumonia hospitalisation, 12% to 79% for radiologically confirmed pneumonia, and 45% to 85% for pneumococcal confirmed pneumonia. For pneumonia-related mortality, impact was found in three studies and ranged from 10% to 78%. No obvious differences were found in vaccine impact between PCV10 and PCV13. One study found a 17% reduction in all-cause pneumonia among children aged 5-9 years, while another found a reduction of 81% among those aged 5-17 years. A third study found a 57% reduction in all-cause empyema among children 5-14 years of age.

Conclusion

We found clear evidence of declines in hospitalisation rates due to all-cause, severe, radiologically confirmed, and bacteraemic pneumococcal pneumonia in children aged <5 years, supporting ongoing use of PCV10 and PCV13. However, there were few studies from countries with the highest <5-year mortality and no studies from SEAR and LMICs in the WPR. Standardising methods of future PCV impact studies is recommended.

The impact of 10-valent pneumococcal vaccine introduction on invasive disease in Fiji

BACKGROUND

In 2012, Fiji introduced the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10). We assessed the impact of PCV10 on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), probable bacterial or pneumococcal meningitis (PBPM), meningitis and sepsis 3-5 years post-introduction.

METHODS

Laboratory-confirmed IPD and PBPM cases were extracted from national laboratory records. ICD-10-AM coded all-cause meningitis and sepsis cases were extracted from national hospitalisation records. Incidence rate ratios were used to compare outcomes pre/post-PCV10, stratified by age groups: 1-23m, 2-4y, 5-9y, 10-19y, 20-54y, ≥55y. To account for different detection and serotyping methods in the pre-and post-PCV10 period, a Bayesian inference model estimated serotype-specific changes in IPD, using pneumococcal carriage and surveillance data.

FINDINGS

There were 423 IPD, 1,029 PBPM, 1,391 all-cause meningitis and 7,611 all-cause sepsis cases. Five years post-PCV10 introduction, IPD declined by 60% (95%CI: 37%, 76%) in children 1-23m months old, and in age groups 2-4y, 5-9y, 10-19y although confidence intervals spanned zero. PBPM declined by 36% (95%CI: 21%, 48%) among children 1-23 months old, and in all other age groups, although some confidence intervals spanned zero. Among children <5y of age, PCV10-type IPD declined by 83% (95%CI; 70%, 90%) and with no evidence of change in non-PCV10-type IPD (9%, 95%CI; -69, 43%). There was no change in all-cause meningitis or sepsis. Post-PCV10, the most common serotypes in vaccine age-eligible and non-age eligible people were serotypes 8 and 23B, and 3 and 7F, respectively.

INTERPRETATIONS

Our study demonstrates the effectiveness of PCV10 against IPD in a country in the Asia-Pacific of which there is a paucity of data.

FUNDING

This study was support by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade of the Australian Government and Fiji Health Sector Support Program (FHSSP). FHSSP is implemented by Abt JTA on behalf of the Australian Government.