Different competing risks models applied to data from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry

High revision rate of metal-backed glenoid component and impact on the overall revision rate of stemless total shoulder arthroplasty: a cohort study from the Danish Shoulder Arthroplasty Registry

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

There is controversy regarding the results of stemmed and stemless total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA) used for osteoarthritis. Therefore, we aimed to compare revision rates of stemmed and stemless TSA and to examine the impact of metal-backed glenoid components.

METHODS

We included all patients reported to the Danish Shoulder Arthroplasty Register from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2022 with an anatomical TSA used for osteoarthritis. Primary outcome was revision (removal or exchange of components) for any reason.

RESULTS

3,338 arthroplasties were included. The hazard ratio for revision of stemless TSA adjusted for age and sex was 1.83 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.21-2.78) with stemmed TSA as reference. When excluding all arthroplasties with a metal-backed glenoid component, the adjusted hazard ratio for revision of stemless TSA was 1.37 (CI 0.85-2.20). For the Eclipse stemless TSA system, the adjusted hazard ratio for revision of a metal-backed glenoid component was 8.75 (CI 2.40-31.9) with stemless Eclipse with an all-polyethylene glenoid component as reference.

CONCLUSION

We showed that the risk of revision of stemless TSAs was increased and that it was related to their combination with metal-backed glenoid components.

Reoperation and revision rates at ten years after 1,312 cemented Thompson’s hemiarthroplasties

Aims

Despite multiple trials and case series on hip hemiarthroplasty designs, guidance is still lacking on which implant to use. One particularly deficient area is long-term outcomes. We present over 1,000 consecutive cemented Thompson’s hemiarthroplasties over a ten-year period, recording all accessible patient and implant outcomes.

Methods

Patient identifiers for a consecutive cohort treated between 1 January 2003 and 31 December 2011 were linked to radiographs, surgical notes, clinic letters, and mortality data from a national dataset. This allowed charting of their postoperative course, complications, readmissions, returns to theatre, revisions, and deaths. We also identified all postoperative attendances at the Emergency and Outpatient Departments, and recorded any subsequent skeletal injuries.

Results

In total, 1,312 Thompson’s hemiarthroplasties were analyzed (mean age at surgery 82.8 years); 125 complications were recorded, necessitating 82 returns to theatre. These included 14 patients undergoing aspiration or manipulation under anaesthesia, 68 reoperations (5.2%) for debridement and implant retention (n = 12), haematoma evacuation (n = 2), open reduction for dislocation (n = 1), fixation of periprosthetic fracture (n = 5), and 48 revised stems (3.7%), for infection (n = 13), dislocation (n = 12), aseptic loosening (n = 9), persistent pain (n = 6), periprosthetic fracture (n = 4), acetabular erosion (n = 3), and metastatic bone disease (n = 1). Their status at ten years is summarized as follows: 1,180 (89.9%) dead without revision, 34 (2.6%) dead having had revision, 84 (6.6%) alive with the stem unrevised, and 14 (1.1%) alive having had revision. Cumulative implant survivorship was 90.3% at ten years; patient survivorship was 7.4%.

Conclusion

The Thompson’s stem demonstrates very low rates of complications requiring reoperation and revision, up to ten years after the index procedure. Fewer than one in ten patients live for ten years after fracture. This study supports the use of a cemented Thompson’s implant as a cost-effective option for frail hip fracture patients.

Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(9):710–715.

Competing Risk Analysis: What Does It Mean and When Do We Need It in Orthopedics Research?

Most orthopedic studies involve survival analysis examining the time to an event of interest, such as a specific complication or revision surgery. Competing risks commonly arise in such studies when patients are at risk of more than one mutually exclusive event, such as death, or when the rate of an event depends on the rates of other competing events. In this article, we briefly describe the survival analysis censoring methodology, common fatal and nonfatal competing events, and define circumstances where standard survival analysis can fail in the setting of competing risks with real-world examples from orthopedics. Please visit the followinghttps://youtu.be/ifj_Mm3eGu8for a video that explains the highlights of the paper in practical terms.

What Is the Effect of Using a Competing-risks Estimator when Predicting Survivorship After Joint Arthroplasty: A Comparison of Approaches to Survivorship Estimation in a Large Registry

BACKGROUND

There is increasing interest in the development of statistical models that can be used to estimate risk of adverse patient outcomes after joint arthroplasty. Competing risk approaches have been recommended to estimate risk of longer-term revision, which is often likely to be precluded by the competing risk of death. However, a common approach is to ignore the competing risk by treating death as a censoring event and using standard survival models such as Cox regression. It is well-known that this approach can overestimate the event risk for population-level estimates, but the impact on the estimation of a patient's individualized risk after joint arthroplasty has not been explored.

QUESTIONS/PURPOSES

We performed this study to (1) determine whether using a competing risk or noncompeting risk method affects the accuracy of predictive models for joint arthroplasty revision and (2) determine the magnitude of difference that using a competing risks versus noncompeting risks approach will make to predicted risks for individual patients.

METHODS

The predictive performance of a standard Cox model, with competing risks treated as censoring events, was compared with the performance of two competing risks approaches, the cause-specific Cox model and Fine-Gray model. Models were trained and tested using data pertaining to 531,304 TKAs and 274,618 THAs recorded in the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry between January 1, 2003 and December 31, 2017. The registry is a large database with near-complete capture and follow-up of all hip and knee joint arthroplasty in Australia from 2003 onwards, making it an ideal setting for this study. The performance of the three modeling approaches was compared in two different prediction settings: prediction of the 10-year risk of all-cause revision after TKA and prediction of revision for periprosthetic fracture after THA. The calibration and discrimination of each approach were compared using the concordance index, integrated Brier scores, and calibration plots. Calibration of 10-year risk estimates was further assessed within subgroups of age by comparing the observed and predicted proportion of events. Estimated 10-year risks from each model were also compared in three hypothetical patients with different risk profiles to determine whether differences in population-level performance metrics would translate into a meaningful difference for individual patient predictions.

RESULTS

The standard Cox and two competing risks models showed near-identical ability to distinguish between high-risk and low-risk patients (c-index 0.64 [95% CI, 0.64 to 0.64] for all three modeling approaches for TKAs and 0.66 [95% CI 0.66 to 0.66] for THA). All models performed similarly in patients younger than 75 years, but for patients aged 75 years and older, the standard Cox model overestimated the risk of revision more than the cause-specific Cox and Fine-Gray model did. These results were echoed when predictions were made for hypothetical individual patients. For patients with a low competing risk of mortality, the 10-year predicted risks from the standard Cox, cause-specific Cox, and Fine-Gray models were similar for TKAs and THAs. However, a larger difference was observed for hypothetical 89-year-old patients with increased mortality risk. In TKAs, the revision risk for an 89-year-old patient was so low that this difference was negligible (0.83% from the cause-specific Cox model versus 1.1% from the standard Cox model). However, for THAs, where older age is a risk factor for both death and revision for periprosthetic fracture, a larger difference was observed in the 10-year predicted risks for a hypothetical 89-year-old patient (3.4% from the cause-specific Cox model versus 5.2% from the standard Cox model).

CONCLUSION

When developing models to predict longer-term revision of joint arthroplasty, failing to use a competing risks modeling approach will result in overestimating the revision risk for patients with a high risk of mortality during the surveillance period. However, even in an extreme instance, where both the frequency of the event of interest and the competing risk of death are high, the largest absolute difference in predicted 10-year risk for an individual patient was just 1.8%, which may not be of consequence to an individual. Despite these findings, when developing or using risk prediction models, researchers and clinicians should be aware of how competing risks were handled in the modeling process, particularly if the model is intended for use populations where the mortality risk is high.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level III, therapeutic study.

Conversion of Failed Hemiarthroplasty to Total Hip Arthroplasty Remains High Risk for Subsequent Complications

BACKGROUND

Few studies have described the outcomes following conversion of failed hemiarthroplasties to total hip arthroplasty (THA) and the impact of mortality when estimating implant survivorship. The aims of this study were to evaluate the following: (1) the risks and predictors of complications, dislocations, reoperations, and revisions and (2) the extent of competing risk of death when evaluating outcomes in patients converted from hemiarthroplasty to THA.

METHODS

The study comprised 389 patients treated with conversion THA following hemiarthroplasty for femoral neck fractures between 1985 and 2014. Revision rates were calculated using both the Kaplan-Meier method and cumulative incidence accounting for death as a competing risk. Risk factors were evaluated using Cox regression models.

RESULTS

During an average 9.3 years of follow-up, there were 122 complications, 34 dislocations, 69 reoperations, and 51 revisions. Conversion for periprosthetic fractures was associated with a higher risk of reoperations (hazard ratio 4.30, 95% confidence interval 1.94-9.52). Increasing age was a risk factor for reoperations (hazard ratio 1.32, 95% confidence interval 1.10-1.59). No decrease in the rate of complications, dislocations, reoperations, or revisions was observed over the entire 30 years of the study either when evaluating year of surgery as a continuous variable or when comparing specific calendar year intervals (1985-1989, 1990-1999, 2000-2009, 2010-2014) (P > .05). Compared to the cumulative incidence accounting for the competing risk of death, the Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the risk of revision by 7% at 15 years and 10% at 20 years.

CONCLUSION

Conversion from hemiarthroplasty to THA remains at high risk for subsequent complications. The cumulative incidence estimate provides a more accurate estimate of revision risk.

Different competing risks models for different questions may give similar results in arthroplasty registers in the presence of few events

Background and purpose - In arthroplasty registry studies, the analysis of time to revision is complicated by the competing risk of death. There are no clear guidelines for the choice between the 2 main adjusted analysis methods, cause-specific Cox and Fine-Gray regression, for orthopedic data. We investigated whether there are benefits, such as insight into different aspects of progression to revision, to using either 1 or both regression methods in arthroplasty registry studies in general, and specifically when the length of follow-up is short relative to the expected survival of the implants. Patients and methods - Cause-specific Cox regression and Fine-Gray regression were performed on total hip (138,234 hips, 124,560 patients) and knee (139,070 knees, 125,213 patients) replacement data from the Dutch Arthroplasty Register (median follow-up 3.1 years, maximum 8 years), with sex, age, ASA score, diagnosis, and type of fixation as explanatory variables. The similarity of the resulting hazard ratios and confidence intervals was assessed visually and by computing the relative differences of the resulting subdistribution and cause-specific hazard ratios. Results - The outcomes of the cause-specific Cox and Fine-Gray regressions were numerically very close. The largest relative difference between the hazard ratios was 3.5%. Interpretation - The most likely explanation for the similarity is that there are relatively few events (revisions and deaths), due to the short follow-up compared with the expected failure-free survival of the hip and knee prostheses. Despite the similarity, we recommend always performing both cause-specific Cox and Fine-Gray regression. In this way, both etiology and prediction can be investigated.

The Cox model is better than the Fine and Gray model when estimating relative revision risks from arthroplasty register data

Background and purpose - Analysis of the revision-free survival of knee and hip prostheses has traditionally been performed using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox regression. The competing risk problem that is related to patients who die during follow-up has recently been increasingly discussed, not least with regard to the problem of choosing a suitable statistical method for the analysis. We compared the results from analyses of Cox models and Fine and Gray models. Methods - We used data simulation based on parameter estimates from the Swedish Knee Arthroplasty Register and assessed hypothetical effects of the studied risk factors. Results - The Cox model provided more adequate results. Interpretation - The parameter estimates from the Fine and Gray model can be misleading if interpreted in terms of relative risk.

The Mayo conservative hip: complication analysis and management of the first 41 cases performed at a University level 1 department

BACKGROUND

To prevent bone loss in hip arthroplasty, several short stem systems have been developed, including the Mayo conservative hip system. While there is a plethora of data confirming inherent advantages of these systems, only little is known about potential complications, especially when surgeons start to use these systems.

METHODS

In this study, we present a retrospective analysis of the patients' outcome, complications and the complication management of the first 41 Mayo conservative hips performed in 37 patients. For this reason, functional scores, radiographic analyses, peri- and postoperative complications were assessed at an average follow-up of 35 months.

RESULTS

The overall HHS improved from 61.2 pre-operatively to 85.6 post-operatively. The German Extra Short Musculoskeletal Function Assessment Questionnaire (XSFMA-D) improved from 30.3 pre-operatively to 12.2 post-operatively. The most common complication was an intraoperative non-displaced fracture of the proximal femur observed in 5 cases (12.1%). Diabetes, higher BMI and older ages were shown to be risk factors for these intra-operative periprosthetic fractures (p < 0.01). Radiographic analysis revealed a good offset reconstruction in all cases.

CONCLUSION

In our series, a high complication rate with 12.1% of non-displaced proximal femoral fractures was observed using the Mayo conservative hip. This may be attributed to the flat learning curve of the system or the inherent patient characteristics of the presented cohort.

Relationship between pull-out strength and oscillation angle in bipolar cups: an in vitro study

PURPOSE

To compare the past and present bipolar hip arthroplasty (BHA) models in terms of balance between pull-out strength and oscillation angle (OA).

METHODS

The pull-out strength and OA of 8 BHA models were compared: UPF-II, IBC, and Tandem XLPE (Smith & Nephew); Ringloc x (Biomet); J-FX (DePuy); Bipolar (Nakashima Medical); Multipolar (Zimmer); and Centrax (Stryker).

RESULTS

Respectively for the UPF-II, IBC, Tandem, Ringloc, J-FX, Nakashima Bipolar, Multipolar, and Centrax, the mean pull-out strength was 2219 N, 3303 N, 1503 N, 951 N, 1453 N, 1856 N, 1536 N, and 753 N, whereas the mean OA was 54.2°, 53.8°, 64.0°, 73.2°, 63.0°, 65.4°, 55.6°, and 75.4°. The OA was lower in the integrated types. For pull-out strength of the locking mechanism, the integrated type (IBC and Nakashima) was stronger than the metal or polyethylene ring-lock type (all others). The pull-out strength and OA were negatively correlated (r= -0.881, p=0.007), and the balance between the 2 varied for different models.

CONCLUSION

There is a trade-off between the pullout strength and OA; optimal balance between the 2 should be based on each patient's need.

Incidence and risk factors for removal of an internal fixation following surgery for ankle fracture: A retrospective cohort study of 997 patients

BACKGROUND

Implant removal in ankle fractures treated by open reduction and fixation is often based on diffuse complaints. This study determined the incidence of implant removal and identified risk factors for two principal causes for removal: complaints and surgical site infection (SSI).

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study involving 997 patients operated on 2009-2011 with follow-up through to 2013. The incidence of implant removal was analysed using competing risk analysis. Risk factors for implant removal were assessed using cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs) from a Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

The mean age at surgery was 51.6 years, 550 (55%) of the patients were female, and 170 patients (17%) had implant removal: 144 due to complaints and 26 due to infection. Multivariable HRs for implant removal due to complaints were 0.70 for male sex (p=0.047), 0.79 for each 10-year increase in age (p<0.001), 0.70 for treatment with a syndesmosis screw (p=0.038), and 1.09 for each 15-min increase in operation duration (p=0.007). HRs for hardware removal due to infection were 1.42 for each 10-year increase in age (p=0.006) and 3.15 for current smoking (p=0.005).

CONCLUSION

In total 17% of patients had implant removal after open reduction and fixation; the majority because of subjective complaints. The risk factors for implant removal were different for removal due to complaints than for those removed due to infection. This information may be used to inform patients about the risk and risk factors for future implant removal.

The manufacture of generic replicas of implants for arthroplasty of the hip and knee

Joint replacement of the hip and knee remain very satisfactory operations. They are, however, expensive. The actual manufacturing of the implant represents only 30% of the final cost, while sales and marketing represent 40%. Recently, the patents on many well established and successful implants have expired. Companies have started producing and distributing implants that purport to replicate existing implants with good long-term results.

The aims of this paper are to assess the legality, the monitoring and cost saving implications of such generic implants. We also assess how this might affect the traditional orthopaedic implant companies.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2016;98-B:892–900.

Comparing contemporary revision burden among hip and knee joint replacement registries

BACKGROUND

Hip and knee arthroplasties are common and successful procedures, however, success and durability are not guaranteed. The revision burden, defined as the ratio of implant revisions to the total number of arthroplasties in a specific period, is a measure of the steady state of arthroplasty success in a given registry. This study examines the hypothesis that revision burden would be similar among contemporary joint replacement registries and improving over time compared with historic controls.

METHODS

We evaluated the national joint registries of 5 health systems (Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry [AOANJRR]; National Joint Registry of England, Wales, Northern Ireland, and the Isle of Man; New Zealand Joint Registry [NZJR]; Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Register [SHAR] and Swedish Knee Arthroplasty Register [SKAR]; and the American Joint Replacement Registry [AJRR]) for hip and knee revision burden over the past 4 years or since registry inception. Historic controls were obtained from previously published reports.

RESULTS

The 2014 hip revision burden varied from 9.7 percent (NJR) to 11.9 percent (NZJR), and the unweighted average was 10.4 percent. The 2011, 2012, and 2013 mean hip revision burden was 11.9, 11.9, and 11.4 percent. The 2014 knee revision burden varied from to 6.0 percent (NJR) to 8.1 percent (AJRR), and the unweighted average for the 5 registries studied was 7.0 percent. The 2011, 2012, and 2013 mean knee revision burden was 6.9, 7.0, and 7.0 percent. Historically, the observed hip revision burden was 15.8 percent and the knee revision burden 8.0 percent.

CONCLUSIONS

Revision burden has gradually decreased for hip replacements and has remained relatively constant for knee replacements both for the last 4 years and compared to historic controls. Knee revision burden was lower than hip revision burden for each period examined. Revision burden is one measure that may be helpful in following the effect of changes in surgical technique and implant design over time in registry populations and may be a helpful way to compare overall results between registries.

Competing Risk of Death When Comparing Tibial Implant Types in Total Knee Arthroplasty

BACKGROUND

In the presence of a competing risk of death, the Kaplan-Meier method is known to overestimate the probability of implant failure. To our knowledge, the magnitude of the competing risk of death in survivorship analyses in total knee arthroplasty has not been studied. The purpose of this study was to determine the extent of the competing risk of death in different age groups during a long-term follow-up of patients who had undergone primary total knee arthroplasty.

METHODS

The study population comprised 22,864 primary total knee arthroplasties at a large medical center in the United States. We compared the overall revision outcomes estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and the cumulative incidence function over a mean follow-up of 7.8 years (range, 0.1 to 26.3 years).

RESULTS

The risk of death exceeded the risk of revision by a factor of 4 at twelve years following the surgical procedure. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the risk of revision by 3% at five years, 14% at ten years, 32% at fifteen years, and 57% at twenty years. At ten years after the surgical procedure, the risk of death exceeded the risk of revision by a factor of 15 in the all-polyethylene group and by a factor of 3.5 in the metal modular group. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the ten-year risk of revision by 18% in the all-polyethylene group and by 11% in the metal modular group. After accounting for the higher competing risk of death in the all-polyethylene group, the cumulative incidence of revision in the metal modular group was about 2.5 to three times higher than that in the all-polyethylene group at ten years.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the Kaplan-Meier and cumulative incidence methods yielded different implant survival estimates beyond ten years (Kaplan-Meier overestimates implant failure), the size of the bias was small at earlier time points. The extent of overestimation depends on the duration of follow-up and the magnitude of the competing risk of death.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE

This study examines the clinical relevance of the competing risk of death in total knee arthroplasty.

Association between hospital procedure volume and risk of revision after total hip arthroplasty: a population-based study within the Nordic Arthroplasty Register Association database

OBJECTIVE

Outcome after total hip arthroplasty (THA) depends on several factors related to the patient, the surgeon and the implant. It has been suggested that the annual number of procedures per hospital affects the prognosis. We aimed to examine if hospital procedure volume was associated with the risk of revision after primary THA in the Nordic countries from 1995 to 2011.

DESIGN

The Nordic Arthroplasty Register Association database provided information about primary THA, revision and annual hospital volume. Hospitals were divided into five volume groups (1-50, 51-100, 101-200, 201-300, >300). The outcome of interest was risk of revision 1, 2, 5, 10 and 15 years after primary THA. Multivariable regression was used to assess the relative risk (RR) of revision.

RESULTS

417,687 THAs were included. For the 263,176 cemented THAs no differences were seen 1 year after primary procedure. At 2, 5, 10 and 15 years the four largest hospital volume groups had a reduced risk of revision compared to group 1-50. After 10 years RR was for volume group 51-100 0.79 (CI 0.65-0.95), group 101-200 0.76 (CI 0.61-0.95), group 201-300 0.74 (CI 0.57-0.96) and group >300 0.57 (CI 0.46-0.71). For the uncemented THAs an association between hospital volume and risk of revision were only present for hospitals producing 201-300 THAs per year, beginning at years 2 through 5 and in all subsequent time intervals to 15 years.

CONCLUSION

Hospital procedure volume was associated with a long term risk of revision after primary cemented THA. Hospitals operating 50 procedures or less per year had an increased risk of revision after 2, 5, 10 and 15 years follow up.

Sex differences in risk and heritability estimates on primary knee osteoarthritis leading to total knee arthroplasty: a nationwide population based follow up study in Danish twins

BACKGROUND

Symptomatic knee osteoarthritis is a highly age and sex associated complex disease. Little is known about the causes behind this age and sex associated increase, or if genetic and environmental factors impacts differently by gender. Our study examined the risk and heritability of primary knee osteoarthritis leading to total knee arthroplasty and whether these differences were attributable to sex and age differences in heritability.

METHODS

All twins of known zygosity from The Danish Twin Register alive in 1997 were examined in a nationwide population based follow-up study collecting information on all twins recorded in The Danish Knee Arthroplasty from 1997 to follow-up in 2010. Our main outcomes were the cumulative incidence, probandwise concordance rates, heritability, within pair correlations in monozygotic and dizygotic twin pairs and the genetic and environmental influence estimated in models taking into account that individuals may not have had a total knee arthroplasty at follow up.

RESULTS

92,748 twins were eligible for analyses and 576 twins had a record of primary knee osteoarthritis in The Danish Knee Arthroplasty Register at follow-up comprising 358 female and 218 male twin cases. The risk increased particular after the age of 50 years displaying significant sex differences in the elderly. In the sex stratified analyses a discrete genetic component was found in females, but in males no genetic component could be detected. In both genders common and unique environmental factors were highly significant. In the sex-adjusted analysis an additive genetic component of 18 % (0; 62), a shared environmental component of 61 % (25; 97) and an individual environmental component of 21 % (6; 36) accounted for the variation in liability to primary total knee arthroplasty.

CONCLUSION

The risk of primary total knee arthroplasty increases significantly after the age of 50 years, in particular in females, displaying significant sex differences in the elderly. After sex-adjustment 82 % of the variation in liability to primary total knee arthroplasty was attributable to common and unique environmental factors; the remaining 18 % of this variation was attributable to additive genetic factors indicating a pivotal impact of environmental factors on this disease.

Probability and heritability estimates on primary osteoarthritis of the hip leading to total hip arthroplasty: a nationwide population based follow-up study in Danish twins

INTRODUCTION

Primary hip osteoarthritis, radiographic as well as symptomatic, is highly associated with increasing age in both genders. However, little is known about the mechanisms behind this, in particular if this increase is caused by genetic factors. This study examined the risk and heritability of primary osteoarthritis of the hip leading to a total hip arthroplasty, and if this heritability increased with increasing age.

METHODS

In a nationwide population-based follow-up study 118,788 twins from the Danish Twin Register and 90,007 individuals from the Danish Hip Arthroplasty Register for the period 1995 to 2010 were examined. Our main outcomes were the cumulative incidence, proband-wise concordance and heritability on age, within-pair correlations in monozygotic and dizygotic twin pairs, and the genetic and environmental influence estimated in models taking into account that individuals may not have had a total hip arthroplasty at the time of follow-up.

RESULTS

There were 94,063 twins eligible for analyses, comprising 835 cases of 36 concordant and 763 discordant twin pairs. The probability increased particularly from 50 years of age. After sex and age adjustment a significant additive genetic component of 47% (12:79), a shared environmental component of 21% (2:76) and a unique environment component of 32% (21:41) accounted for the variation in population liability to total hip arthroplasty. The sex-adjusted proband-wise concordance and heritability on age indicated an increasing age-associated genetic influence onwards from 60 years of age.

CONCLUSION

The cumulative incidence in primary hip osteoarthritis leading to total hip arthroplasty increases in particular after the age of 50 years in both genders. Family factors of genes and shared environment are highly significant and account for 68% of the variation in the population liability to total hip arthroplasty; however, the genetic influence increases significantly from 60 years of age onwards.

Fosså S, Trovik C, Lie SA. Pelvic irradiation does not increase the risk of hip replacement in patients with gynecological cancer. A cohort study based on 8,507 patients

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Long-term survivors of cancer can develop adverse effects of the treatment. 60% of cancer patients survive for at least 5 years after diagnosis. Pelvic irradiation can cause bone damage in these long-term survivors, with increased risk of fracture and degeneration of the hip.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Analyses were based on linkage between the Cancer Registry of Norway (CRN) and the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register (NAR). All women who had been exposed to radiation for curative radiotherapy of gynecological cancer (40-60 Gy for at least 28 days) were identified in the CRN. Radiotherapy had been given between 1998 and 2006 and only patients who were irradiated within 6 months of diagnosis were included. The control group contained women with breast cancer who had also undergone radiotherapy, but not to the pelvic area. Fine and Gray competing-risk analysis was used to calculate subhazard-rate ratios (subHRRs) and cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) for the risk of having a prosthesis accounting for differences in mortality.

RESULTS

Of 962 eligible patients with gynecological cancer, 26 (3%) had received a total hip replacement. In the control group without exposure, 253 (3%) of 7,545 patients with breast cancer had undergone total hip replacement. The 8-year CIF for receiving a total hip replacement was 2.7% (95% CI: 2.6-2.8) for gynecological cancer patients and 3.0% (95% CI: 2.95-3.03) for breast cancer patients; subHRR was 0.80 (95% CI: 0.53-1.22; p=0.3). In both groups, the most common reason for hip replacement was idiopathic osteoarthritis.

INTERPRETATION

We did not find any statistically significantly higher risk of undergoing total hip replacement in patients with gynecological cancer who had had pelvic radiotherapy than in women with breast cancer who had not had pelvic radiotherapy.

Increasing age and female gender are associated with early knee replacement following arthroscopy

PURPOSE

Early knee replacement following arthroscopy may be perceived as a failure of the original treatment and thus a poor use of resources. Factors that may be associated with increased risk of early replacement were explored in this study.

METHODS

All adult patients who underwent planned knee arthroscopy in a national cohort over a 6-month period in 2005 were extracted from the administrative hospital admissions database and linked to determine whether and when a knee replacement occurred on the same knee within the subsequent 5 years. A combination of survival analysis and mixed effect modelling was used to investigate risk factors for replacement.

RESULTS

There were a total of 20,556 arthroscopies, of which 2,161 (10.6%) subsequently underwent knee replacement. For patients under 60 years, female gender (62.1% higher risk, p < 0.001) and increasing age (12.7% increased risk per increasing year of age, p < 0.001) were significant associations for requiring knee replacement, after risk adjusting. Of those aged ≥60, 12.7% (576) had undergone a replacement at 1 year following arthroscopy. Females (33% higher risk), increasing age (7.3% increased risk per increasing year of age, p < 0.001) and hypertension (1,600% higher risk, p < 0.001) were significant predictors. The risk associated with increased age was not proportional for the older age group, with risk declining as time passed from arthroscopy, indicating other factors were influencing progression to knee replacement.

CONCLUSIONS

The predictors of early knee replacement following arthroscopy were female sex, age over 60 years and hypertension, irrespective of type of operation. This work may contribute to national recommendations regarding the provision of arthroscopy for patients over 60 years.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

III.

Cemented Thompson's hemiarthroplasty in patients with intracapsular neck of femur fractures: survival analysis of 1,670 procedures

Cemented Thompson's prostheses have been used to treat elderly patients with displaced intracapsular hip fractures at our two units for the last 15 years, amid growing support for the use of newer implant designs for hip hemiarthroplasty. This provided us with an opportunity to investigate survival of the Thompson's stem in our patients. A retrospective cohort study was set up to review previously collected data on patients who underwent Thompson's hemiarthroplasty over a 7-year period. These were linked to surgical notes, clinical letters and radiographs to record post-operative course and subsequent admissions and procedures. The identifiers were then linked to mortality data from the Office of 'National Statistics. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were done for implants and patients. A total of 1,632 patients (mean age 82.7 years) underwent 1,670 procedures. Five-year implant survival was 95.4 %. A total of 36 stems were revised, including 14 revisions to total hip arthroplasty and 22 excision arthroplasties. Reasons for revision included infection (2.1 %), dislocation (1.1 %) and aseptic loosening (0.5 %). Symptomatic aseptic loosening and acetabular erosion occurred late (mean time 3.2 and 5.7 years, respectively following surgery). Aseptic loosening and erosion following hemiarthroplasty are relatively late complications.

Hemiarthroplasties after hip fractures in Norway and Sweden: a collaboration between the Norwegian and Swedish national registries

National registration of hemiarthroplasties after hip fractures has been established in both Norway and Sweden. We aimed to investigate differences in demographics, choice of implant selection, surgical approaches, and reoperations between the Norwegian Hip Fracture Register (NHFR) and the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Register (SHAR). As part of the Nordic Arthroplasty Register Association (NARA) project a common hemiarthroplasty dataset has been established. 36,989 primary hemiarthroplasties (HAs) for acute hip fractures reported to NHFR (n = 12,761) and SHAR (n = 24,228) for the period 2005-2010 were included. Cemented prostheses were used in 78% of the operations in Norway and in 95% of the patients in Sweden. In Norway HAs almost exclusively had bipolar design (98%), whereas in Sweden HAs with unipolar design were used in 42% of the cases. Monoblock (non-modular) prostheses were uncommon, but still more frequently used in Sweden than in Norway (6.9% and 2.1% respectively). The lateral approach was more common in Norway (83%) than in Sweden (52%), where the posterior approach was used in 42% of the cases. The five-year survival of all HAs was 95.5% (95% CI: 94.8-96.2) in Norway and 94.8% (95% CI: 94.4-95.3) in Sweden. We concluded that surprisingly large differences between the two countries in demographics, implant design, and surgical technique had been revealed. This common dataset enables further investigations of the impact of these differences on revision rates and mortality.

How to deal with lost to follow-up in total knee arthroplasty : a new method based on the competing risks approach

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to develop a more accurate method to deal with patients lost to follow-up based on the competing risks approach.

METHODS

A cohort of 112 patients who received 143 primary cemented total knee arthroplasties forms the basis for this study. Follow-up was up to 25 years. The new method for dealing with lost to follow-up accounts for competing events (i.e. death and failure of a prosthesis) using the cumulative incidence estimator and estimates time to event for patients lost to follow-up using national demographic registries. The results of this new method were compared with the worst case scenario estimated by Kaplan-Meier.

RESULTS

Six different situations were identified covering all possible situations in long-term follow-up for total knee arthroplasty. The new method--considering all patients lost to follow-up as revised--showed a twofold reduction in revision rate compared to the traditional worst case scenario using Kaplan-Meier.

CONCLUSIONS

Lost to follow-up should be prevented whenever possible, but this may be unavoidable for long-term follow-up studies. In situations where lost to follow-up does occur, the new proposed method offers an efficient and valid approach to deal with this problem.

Long-term results of cemented total hip arthroplasty in patients younger than 30 years and the outcome of subsequent revisions

BACKGROUND

The number of total hip arthroplasties in patients under 30 years is increasing over the years. Almost all of them will face at least one or more future revisions in their life. Therefore, the implant used should have a high survival rate, and needs to be easily revisable resulting in a low re-revision rate. Several studies have evaluated the outcome of total hip arthroplasties in patients under 30 years. However, only a few reported on the follow-up outcome of 10 years or more. In addition, none of these reports published data of the subsequent revisions of these implants within their original report.

METHODS

We studied historically prospective collected data of 48 consecutive patients (69 hips) younger than 30 years, treated with a cemented primary total hip prosthesis between 1988 and 2004. Since the last evaluation of this cohort, two patients were lost to follow-up. For all hip revisions in this cohort, again cemented implants were used, mostly in combination with bone impaction grafting. Kaplan-Meier survival curves at 10- and 15 years for the primary total hip arthroplasties and revisions were determined.

RESULTS

The mean age at time of primary surgery was 25 years (range, 16 to 29 years). Mean follow-up of the primary hips was 11.5 years (range, 7 to 23 years). During follow-up 13 revisions were performed; in 3 cases a two-stage total revision was performed for septic loosening and 9 cups were revised for aseptic loosening. There were no aseptic stem revisions. The 10 and 15-year survival rates with endpoint revision for aseptic loosening of the primary total hip were 90% (95% CI: 79 to 96) and 82% (95% CI: 65 to 92) respectively. None of our 13 subsequent revisions needed a re-revision within 10 years after re-implantation.

CONCLUSIONS

Cemented total hip implants in patients under 30 years have an encouraging outcome at 10 and 15 years after surgery in these young patients. The 13 revised hips, treated with bone grafting and the third generation cement technique, were performing well with no re-revisions within ten years after surgery.

Obesity and increased burden of hip and knee joint disease in Australia: results from a national survey

BACKGROUND

Research involving more representative samples is needed to extend our understanding of the broader impact of obesity in hip or knee joint disease (arthritis and OA) beyond clinical settings. Although population-based research has been conducted in the United States, how these findings translate to other countries is unclear. Using a national approach, this study explored associations between obesity and the burden of hip and knee joint disease in Australia (in terms of prevalence, pain, stiffness, function, Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) and disease severity).

METHODS

A random sample of 5000 Australians (≥ 39 years) from the federal electoral roll was invited to complete a mailed questionnaire to identify doctor-diagnosed hip arthritis, hip OA, knee arthritis and knee OA and evaluate the burden of these conditions. Validated questionnaires included the WOMAC Index, Assessment of Quality of Life instrument and Multi-Attribute Prioritisation Tool. Body Mass Index (BMI) was classified into underweight/normal weight (≤ 24.99 kg/m2), overweight (25-29.99) or obese (≥ 30). Multiple logistic regression was used to estimate odds of arthritis and OA, with demographic and socioeconomic variables included in the models. Associations between BMI and other variables were investigated using analysis of covariance, with adjustment for age and sex.

RESULTS

Data were available from 1,157 participants (23%). Overweight participants had increased odds of knee arthritis (adjusted OR (AOR) 1.87, 95%CI 1.14-3.07) and knee OA (AOR 2.11, 95%CI 1.07-4.15). Obesity was associated with higher prevalence of hip arthritis (AOR 2.18, 95%CI 1.17-4.06), knee arthritis (AOR 5.47, 95%CI 3.35-8.95) and knee OA (AOR 7.35, 95%CI 3.85-14.02). Of those with arthritis or OA, obese individuals reported more pain (for hip arthritis, hip OA and knee OA), greater stiffness (for hip arthritis, knee arthritis and knee OA), worse function (all diagnoses), lower HRQoL (for hip arthritis and hip OA) and greater disease severity (all diagnoses).

CONCLUSIONS

This national study has demonstrated that the odds of arthritis and OA was up to 7 times higher for obese individuals, compared with those classified as underweight/normal weight. Concurrent obesity and joint disease had a marked impact on several key aspects of wellbeing, highlighting the need for public health interventions.

The risk of revision due to dislocation after total hip arthroplasty depends on surgical approach, femoral head size, sex, and primary diagnosis. An analysis of 78,098 operations in the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Register

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The effects of patient-related and technical factors on the risk of revision due to dislocation after primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) are only partly understood. We hypothesized that increasing the femoral head size can reduce this risk, that the lateral surgical approach is associated with a lower risk than the posterior and minimally invasive approaches, and that gender and diagnosis influence the risk of revision due to dislocation.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Data on 78,098 THAs in 61,743 patients performed between 2005 and 2010 were extracted from the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Register. Inclusion criteria were a head size of 22, 28, 32, or 36 mm, or the use of a dual-mobility cup. The covariates age, sex, primary diagnosis, type of surgical approach, and head size were entered into Cox proportional hazards models in order to calculate the adjusted relative risk (RR) of revision due to dislocation, with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

After a mean follow-up of 2.7 (0-6) years, 399 hips (0.5%) had been revised due to dislocation. The use of 22-mm femoral heads resulted in a higher risk of revision than the use of 28-mm heads (RR = 2.0, CI: 1.2-3.3). Only 1 of 287 dual-mobility cups had been revised due to dislocation. Compared with the direct lateral approach, minimally invasive approaches were associated with a higher risk of revision due to dislocation (RR = 4.2, CI: 2.3-7.7), as were posterior approaches (RR = 1.3, CI: 1.1-1.7). An increased risk of revision due to dislocation was found for the diagnoses femoral neck fracture (RR = 3.9, CI: 3.1-5.0) and osteonecrosis of the femoral head (RR = 3.7, CI: 2.5-5.5), whereas women were at lower risk than men (RR = 0.8, CI: 0.7-1.0). Restriction of the analysis to the first 6 months after the index procedure gave similar risk estimates.

INTERPRETATION

Patients with femoral neck fracture or osteonecrosis of the femoral head are at higher risk of dislocation. Use of the minimally invasive and posterior approaches also increases this risk, and we raise the question of whether patients belonging to risk groups should be operated using lateral approaches. The use of femoral head diameters above 28 mm or of dual-mobility cups reduced this risk in a clinically relevant manner, but this observation was not statistically significant.

Long-term outcome in an uncemented, hydroxyapatite-coated total knee replacement

A consecutive series of patients with a hydroxyapatite-coated uncemented total knee replacement (TKR) performed by a single surgeon between 1992 and 1995 was analysed. All patients were invited for clinical review and radiological assessment. Revision for aseptic loosening was the primary outcome. Assessment was based on the Knee Society clinical score (KSS) and an independent radiological analysis. Of 471 TKRs performed in 356 patients, 432 TKRs in 325 patients were followed for a mean of 16.4 years (15 to 18). The 39 TKRs in 31 patients lost to follow-up had a mean KSS of 176 (148 to 198) at a mean of ten years. There were revisions in 26 TKRs (5.5%), of which 11 (2.3%) were for aseptic loosening. Other further surgery was carried out on 49 TKRs (10.4%) including patellar resurfacing in 20, arthrolysis in 19, manipulation under anaesthetic in nine and extensor mechanism reconstruction in one.

Survivorship at up to 18 years without aseptic loosening was 96% (95% confidence interval 91.9 to 98.1), at which point the mean KSS was 176 (134 to 200). Of 110 knees that underwent radiological evaluation, osteolysis was observed in five (4.5%), one of which was revised.

These data indicate that uncemented hydroxyapatite-coated TKR can achieve favourable long-term survivorship, at least as good as that of cemented designs.

Mortality and implant revision rates of hip arthroplasty in patients with osteoarthritis: registry based cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To examine mortality and revision rates among patients with osteoarthritis undergoing hip arthroplasty and to compare these rates between patients undergoing cemented or uncemented procedures and to compare outcomes between men undergoing stemmed total hip replacements and Birmingham hip resurfacing.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

SETTING

National Joint Registry.

POPULATION

About 275,000 patient records.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Hip arthroplasty procedures were linked to the time to any subsequent mortality or revision (implant failure). Flexible parametric survival analysis methods were used to analyse time to mortality and also time to revision. Comparisons between procedure groups were adjusted for age, sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade, and complexity.

RESULTS

As there were large baseline differences in the characteristics of patients receiving cemented, uncemented, or resurfacing procedures, unadjusted comparisons are inappropriate. Multivariable survival analyses identified a higher mortality rate for patients undergoing cemented compared with uncemented total hip replacement (adjusted hazard ratio 1.11, 95% confidence interval 1.07 to 1.16); conversely, there was a lower revision rate with cemented procedures (0.53, 0.50 to 0.57). These translate to small predicted differences in population averaged absolute survival probability at all time points. For example, compared with the uncemented group, at eight years after surgery the predicted probability of death in the cemented group was 0.013 higher (0.007 to 0.019) and the predicted probability of revision was 0.015 lower (0.012 to 0.017). In multivariable analyses restricted to men, there was a higher mortality rate in the cemented group and the uncemented group compared with the Birmingham hip resurfacing group. In terms of revision, the Birmingham hip resurfacings had a similar revision rate to uncemented total hip replacements. Both uncemented total hip replacements and Birmingham hip resurfacings had a higher revision rate than cemented total hip replacements.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a small but significant increased risk of revision with uncemented rather than cemented total hip replacement, and a small but significant increased risk of death with cemented procedures. It is not known whether these are causal relations or caused by residual confounding. Compared with uncemented and cemented total hip replacements, Birmingham hip resurfacing has a significantly lower risk of death in men of all ages. Previously, only adjusted analyses of hip implant revision rates have been used to recommend and justify use of cheaper cemented total hip implants. Our investigations additionally consider mortality rates and suggest a potentially higher mortality rate with cemented total hip replacements, which merits further investigation.

Risk of periprosthetic femur fracture after anterior cortical bone windowing: a mechanical analysis of short versus long cemented stems in pigs

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Removal of distal cement at femoral implant revision is technically challenging and is associated with complications such as cortical perforations. A technique that can reduce the risks and operating time is to make a small cortical window in the distal femur for enhanced access. We wanted to determine whether the use of long, bridging, cemented femoral stems is necessary to reduce the risk of postoperative periprosthetic fractures after using an anterior cortical bone window.

METHODS

66 fresh pig femurs underwent mechanical testing. Steel rods were implanted at 3 locations: (1) at the distal window edge, (2) 15 mm proximally to the cortical window edge, and (3) 15 mm distally. 54 femurs were tested using a 3-point bending setup and 12 femurs were tested using a torsional load setup.

RESULTS

Load to fracture ratio and bending stiffness ratio were similar in the 3 groups, for either the 3-point bending test or the torsional load test.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings suggest that bypass of cortical windows with a revision femoral component may not reduce the risk of periprosthetic fracture.