Reliability of direct genomic values for animals with different relationships within and to the reference population

Impact of truncating historical data on prediction ability of dairy sheep selection candidates

Along the last decades, the genetic evaluation methodology has evolved, improving breeding value estimates. Many breeding programmes have historical phenotypic records and large number of generations, but to make use of them could result in more inconveniences than benefits. In this study, the prediction ability of genotyped young animals was assessed by simultaneously evaluating the removal of historical data, two pedigree deepness and two methodologies (traditional BLUP and single-step genomic BLUP or ssGBLUP), using milk yield records of 40 years of three Latxa dairy sheep populations. The linear regression method was used to compare predictions of young rams before and after progeny testing, with six cut-off points, by intervals of 4 years (from 1992 to 2012), and statistics of ratio of accuracies, bias, and dispersion were calculated. The prediction accuracy of selection candidates, when genomic information was included, was the highest in all Latxa populations (between 0.54 and 0.69 with full data set). Nevertheless, the deletion of historical phenotypic data resulted on moderate accuracy gain in the bigger data size populations (mean gain 2.5%), and the smaller population took advantage of a moderate data deletion (2.7% gain by removing data until 2004), reducing accuracy when more records were removed. The bias of validation individuals was lower when the breeding value was predicted based on genomic information (between 2.1 and 13.9), being lower when the biggest amount of data was deleted in the bigger data size populations (5.2% reduction), and the smaller population was benefited from data deletion between 1996 and 2008 (3.8% bias reduction). Meanwhile, the slope of estimated genetic trend was lower when less data were included, and an overestimation of the unknown parent group estimates was observed. The results indicated that ssGBLUP evaluations were outstanding, compared with traditional BLUP evaluations, while the depth of pedigree had a very small influence, and deletion of historical phenotypic data was beneficial. Thus, Latxa routine genetic evaluations would benefit from truncating phenotypic records between 2000 and 2004, the use of two pedigree generations and the implementation of ssGBLUP methodology.

Boosting genome-wide association power and genomic prediction accuracy for date palm fruit traits with advanced statistics

The date palm is economically vital in the Middle East and North Africa, providing essential fibres, vitamins, and carbohydrates. Understanding the genetic architecture of its traits remains complex due to the tree's perennial nature and long generation times. This study aims to address these complexities by employing advanced genome-wide association (GWAS) and genomic prediction models using previously published data involving fruit acid content, sugar content, dimension, and colour traits. The multivariate GWAS model identified seven QTL, including five novel associations, that shed light on the genetic control of these traits. Furthermore, the research evaluates different genomic prediction models that considered genotype by environment and genotype by trait interactions. While colour- traits demonstrate strong predictive power, other traits display moderate accuracies across different models and scenarios aligned with the expectations when using small reference populations. When designing the cross-validation to predict new individuals, the accuracy of the best multi-trait model was significantly higher than all single-trait models for dimension traits, but not for the remaining traits, which showed similar performances. However, the cross-validation strategy that masked random phenotypic records (i.e., mimicking the unbalanced phenotypic records) showed significantly higher accuracy for all traits except acid contents. The findings underscore the importance of understanding genetic architecture for informed breeding strategies. The research emphasises the need for larger population sizes and multivariate models to enhance gene tagging power and predictive accuracy to advance date palm breeding programs. These findings support more targeted breeding in date palm, improving productivity and resilience to various environments.

Genomic selection in plant breeding: Key factors shaping two decades of progress

Genomic selection, the application of genomic prediction (GP) models to select candidate individuals, has significantly advanced in the past two decades, effectively accelerating genetic gains in plant breeding. This article provides a holistic overview of key factors that have influenced GP in plant breeding during this period. We delved into the pivotal roles of training population size and genetic diversity, and their relationship with the breeding population, in determining GP accuracy. Special emphasis was placed on optimizing training population size. We explored its benefits and the associated diminishing returns beyond an optimum size. This was done while considering the balance between resource allocation and maximizing prediction accuracy through current optimization algorithms. The density and distribution of single-nucleotide polymorphisms, level of linkage disequilibrium, genetic complexity, trait heritability, statistical machine-learning methods, and non-additive effects are the other vital factors. Using wheat, maize, and potato as examples, we summarize the effect of these factors on the accuracy of GP for various traits. The search for high accuracy in GP-theoretically reaching one when using the Pearson's correlation as a metric-is an active research area as yet far from optimal for various traits. We hypothesize that with ultra-high sizes of genotypic and phenotypic datasets, effective training population optimization methods and support from other omics approaches (transcriptomics, metabolomics and proteomics) coupled with deep-learning algorithms could overcome the boundaries of current limitations to achieve the highest possible prediction accuracy, making genomic selection an effective tool in plant breeding.

Maximizing efficiency in sunflower breeding through historical data optimization

Genomic selection (GS) has become an increasingly popular tool in plant breeding programs, propelled by declining genotyping costs, an increase in computational power, and rediscovery of the best linear unbiased prediction methodology over the past two decades. This development has led to an accumulation of extensive historical datasets with genotypic and phenotypic information, triggering the question of how to best utilize these datasets. Here, we investigate whether all available data or a subset should be used to calibrate GS models for across-year predictions in a 7-year dataset of a commercial hybrid sunflower breeding program. We employed a multi-objective optimization approach to determine the ideal years to include in the training set (TRS). Next, for a given combination of TRS years, we further optimized the TRS size and its genetic composition. We developed the Min_GRM size optimization method which consistently found the optimal TRS size, reducing dimensionality by 20% with an approximately 1% loss in predictive ability. Additionally, the Tails_GEGVs algorithm displayed potential, outperforming the use of all data by using just 60% of it for grain yield, a high-complexity, low-heritability trait. Moreover, maximizing the genetic diversity of the TRS resulted in a consistent predictive ability across the entire range of genotypic values in the test set. Interestingly, the Tails_GEGVs algorithm, due to its ability to leverage heterogeneity, enhanced predictive performance for key hybrids with extreme genotypic values. Our study provides new insights into the optimal utilization of historical data in plant breeding programs, resulting in improved GS model predictive ability.

Portability of genomic predictions trained on sparse factorial designs across two maize silage breeding cycles

KEY MESSAGE

We validated the efficiency of genomic predictions calibrated on sparse factorial training sets to predict the next generation of hybrids and tested different strategies for updating predictions along generations. Genomic selection offers new prospects for revisiting hybrid breeding schemes by replacing extensive phenotyping of individuals with genomic predictions. Finding the ideal design for training genomic prediction models is still an open question. Previous studies have shown promising predictive abilities using sparse factorial instead of tester-based training sets to predict single-cross hybrids from the same generation. This study aims to further investigate the use of factorials and their optimization to predict line general combining abilities (GCAs) and hybrid values across breeding cycles. It relies on two breeding cycles of a maize reciprocal genomic selection scheme involving multiparental connected reciprocal populations from flint and dent complementary heterotic groups selected for silage performances. Selection based on genomic predictions trained on a factorial design resulted in a significant genetic gain for dry matter yield in the new generation. Results confirmed the efficiency of sparse factorial training sets to predict candidate line GCAs and hybrid values across breeding cycles. Compared to a previous study based on the first generation, the advantage of factorial over tester training sets appeared lower across generations. Updating factorial training sets by adding single-cross hybrids between selected lines from the previous generation or a random subset of hybrids from the new generation both improved predictive abilities. The CDmean criterion helped determine the set of single-crosses to phenotype to update the training set efficiently. Our results validated the efficiency of sparse factorial designs for calibrating hybrid genomic prediction experimentally and showed the benefit of updating it along generations.

Principles and methods for transferring polygenic risk scores across global populations

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) summarize the genetic predisposition of a complex human trait or disease and may become a valuable tool for advancing precision medicine. However, PRSs that are developed in populations of predominantly European genetic ancestries can increase health disparities due to poor predictive performance in individuals of diverse and complex genetic ancestries. We describe genetic and modifiable risk factors that limit the transferability of PRSs across populations and review the strengths and weaknesses of existing PRS construction methods for diverse ancestries. Developing PRSs that benefit global populations in research and clinical settings provides an opportunity for innovation and is essential for health equity.

Evaluation of genomic prediction considering non-additive genetic effects on fatty acid traits of Japanese Black cattle

Genomic prediction was conducted using 2494 Japanese Black cattle from Hiroshima Prefecture and both single-nucleotide polymorphism information and phenotype data on monounsaturated fatty acid (MUFA) and oleic acid (C18:1) analyzed with gas chromatography. We compared the prediction accuracy for four models (A, additive genetic effects; AD, as for A with dominance genetic effects; ADR, as for AD with the runs of homozygosity (ROH) effects calculated by ROH-based relationship matrix; and ADF, as for AD with the ROH-based inbreeding coefficient of the linear regression). Bayesian methods were used to estimate variance components. The narrow-sense heritability estimates for MUFA and C18:1 were 0.52-0.53 and 0.57, respectively; the corresponding proportions of dominance genetic variance were 0.04-0.07 and 0.04-0.05, and the proportion of ROH variance was 0.02. The deviance information criterion values showed slight differences among the models, and the models provided similar prediction accuracy.

Comparison of genomic-enabled cross selection criteria for the improvement of inbred line breeding populations

A crucial step in inbred plant breeding is the choice of mating design to derive high-performing inbred varieties while also maintaining a competitive breeding population to secure sufficient genetic gain in future generations. In practice, the mating design usually relies on crosses involving the best parental inbred lines to ensure high mean progeny performance. This excludes crosses involving lower performing but more complementary parents in terms of favorable alleles. We predicted the ability of crosses to produce putative outstanding progenies (high mean and high variance progeny distribution) using genomic prediction models. This study compared the benefits and drawbacks of 7 genomic cross selection criteria (CSC) in terms of genetic gain for 1 trait and genetic diversity in the next generation. Six CSC were already published, and we propose an improved CSC that can estimate the proportion of progeny above a threshold defined for the whole mating plan. We simulated mating designs optimized using different CSC. The 835 elite parents came from a real breeding program and were evaluated between 2000 and 2016. We applied constraints on parental contributions and genetic similarities between selected parents according to usual breeder practices. Our results showed that CSC based on progeny variance estimation increased the genetic value of superior progenies by up to 5% in the next generation compared to CSC based on the progeny mean estimation (i.e. parental genetic values) alone. It also increased the genetic gain (up to 4%) and/or maintained more genetic diversity at QTLs (up to 4% more genic variance when the marker effects were perfectly estimated).

Effect of subdivision of the Lacaune dairy sheep breed on the accuracy of genomic prediction

Genomic selection was deployed in Lacaune dairy breed in 2015. Lacaune population split in 1972 into 2 breeding companies with associated flocks, and there have been very few exchanges of animals between the subpopulations, leading to divergence of the 2 subpopulations. In spite of that, there is a joint genomic prediction. The objective of this study is to understand how this structuring affects prediction accuracy. We analyzed all the data available from Lacaune breeding program for milk yield: around 6 million phenotypes, 2 million animals in the pedigree and more than 29,000 genotyped animals, including 3,434 and 2,868 AI rams for each company. To consider missing pedigree, we set up genetic groups using the theory of metafounders. First, we studied the pedigree and genomic structures of the 2 subpopulations calculating Fst, evolution of average pedigree relationships across time and principal components analysis of genomic relationships. In a second part, we compared the reliability between different scenarios: an evaluation with a single reference population (Alone), an evaluation with a joint reference population (Together) and an evaluation of one subpopulation based on the reference population of the other group (Indirect). The low Fst value (0.02) reveals that the 2 subpopulations are still genetically close. Nevertheless, a low and constant average relationship between the animals of the 2 subpopulations confirms the absence of recent connections between them. We can see with principal component analysis results that even if they are close, they diverge over time. Finally, we observe small gains in accuracy of Together versus Alone, in spite of whereas doubling the reference population size in Together. These gains vary across years and subpopulations: less than 0.08 (0.46 to 0.54; ratio of accuracy for the partial and whole evaluations-corresponding to the greatest change in this ratio for breeding company 1, observed for the cohort 2016) for one subpopulation and between 0.03 (0.55 to 0.58) and 0.17 (0.48 to 0.65) for the other. To conclude, the 2 subpopulations remain close enough genetically so that their combined evaluation is advantageous, even if only slightly.

Integrated Genomic Selection for Accelerating Breeding Programs of Climate-Smart Cereals

Rapidly rising population and climate changes are two critical issues that require immediate action to achieve sustainable development goals. The rising population is posing increased demand for food, thereby pushing for an acceleration in agricultural production. Furthermore, increased anthropogenic activities have resulted in environmental pollution such as water pollution and soil degradation as well as alterations in the composition and concentration of environmental gases. These changes are affecting not only biodiversity loss but also affecting the physio-biochemical processes of crop plants, resulting in a stress-induced decline in crop yield. To overcome such problems and ensure the supply of food material, consistent efforts are being made to develop strategies and techniques to increase crop yield and to enhance tolerance toward climate-induced stress. Plant breeding evolved after domestication and initially remained dependent on phenotype-based selection for crop improvement. But it has grown through cytological and biochemical methods, and the newer contemporary methods are based on DNA-marker-based strategies that help in the selection of agronomically useful traits. These are now supported by high-end molecular biology tools like PCR, high-throughput genotyping and phenotyping, data from crop morpho-physiology, statistical tools, bioinformatics, and machine learning. After establishing its worth in animal breeding, genomic selection (GS), an improved variant of marker-assisted selection (MAS), has made its way into crop-breeding programs as a powerful selection tool. To develop novel breeding programs as well as innovative marker-based models for genetic evaluation, GS makes use of molecular genetic markers. GS can amend complex traits like yield as well as shorten the breeding period, making it advantageous over pedigree breeding and marker-assisted selection (MAS). It reduces the time and resources that are required for plant breeding while allowing for an increased genetic gain of complex attributes. It has been taken to new heights by integrating innovative and advanced technologies such as speed breeding, machine learning, and environmental/weather data to further harness the GS potential, an approach known as integrated genomic selection (IGS). This review highlights the IGS strategies, procedures, integrated approaches, and associated emerging issues, with a special emphasis on cereal crops. In this domain, efforts have been taken to highlight the potential of this cutting-edge innovation to develop climate-smart crops that can endure abiotic stresses with the motive of keeping production and quality at par with the global food demand.

The trend of breeding value research in animal science: bibliometric analysis

This study aims to identify trends and hot topics in breeding value to support researchers in finding new directions for future research in that area. The data of this study consist of 7072 academic studies on breeding value in the Web of Science database. Network visualizations and in-depth bibliometric analysis were performed on cited references, authors, countries, institutions, journals, and keywords through CiteSpace. VanRaden (2008) is the most cited work and has an essential place in the field. The most prolific writer is Ignacy Misztal. While the most productive country in breeding value studies is the United States, the People's Republic of China is an influential country that has experienced a strong citation burst in the last 3 years. The National Institute for Agricultural Research and Wageningen University are important institutions that play a critical role in connecting other institutions. Also, these two institutions have the highest centrality values. "Genomic prediction" is the outstanding sub-study field in the active clusters appearing in the analysis results. We have summarized the literature on breeding value, including publication information, country, institution, author, and journal. We can say that hot topics today are "genome-wide association", "feed efficiency", and "genomic prediction". While the studies conducted in the past years have focused on economic value and accuracy, the studies conducted in recent years have started to be studies that consider technological developments and changing world conditions such as global warming and carbon emission.

Polygenic scoring accuracy varies across the genetic ancestry continuum

Polygenic scores (PGSs) have limited portability across different groupings of individuals (for example, by genetic ancestries and/or social determinants of health), preventing their equitable use1-3. PGS portability has typically been assessed using a single aggregate population-level statistic (for example, R2)4, ignoring inter-individual variation within the population. Here, using a large and diverse Los Angeles biobank5 (ATLAS, n = 36,778) along with the UK Biobank6 (UKBB, n = 487,409), we show that PGS accuracy decreases individual-to-individual along the continuum of genetic ancestries7 in all considered populations, even within traditionally labelled 'homogeneous' genetic ancestries. The decreasing trend is well captured by a continuous measure of genetic distance (GD) from the PGS training data: Pearson correlation of -0.95 between GD and PGS accuracy averaged across 84 traits. When applying PGS models trained on individuals labelled as white British in the UKBB to individuals with European ancestries in ATLAS, individuals in the furthest GD decile have 14% lower accuracy relative to the closest decile; notably, the closest GD decile of individuals with Hispanic Latino American ancestries show similar PGS performance to the furthest GD decile of individuals with European ancestries. GD is significantly correlated with PGS estimates themselves for 82 of 84 traits, further emphasizing the importance of incorporating the continuum of genetic ancestries in PGS interpretation. Our results highlight the need to move away from discrete genetic ancestry clusters towards the continuum of genetic ancestries when considering PGSs.

Multibreed genomic prediction using summary statistics and a breed-origin-of-alleles approach

Because of an increasing interest in crossbreeding between dairy breeds in dairy cattle herds, farmers are requesting breeding values for crossbred animals. However, genomically enhanced breeding values are difficult to predict in crossbred populations because the genetic make-up of crossbred individuals is unlikely to follow the same pattern as for purebreds. Furthermore, sharing genotype and phenotype information between breed populations are not always possible, which means that genetic merit (GM) for crossbred animals may be predicted without the information needed from some pure breeds, resulting in low prediction accuracy. This simulation study investigated the consequences of using summary statistics from single-breed genomic predictions for some or all pure breeds in two- and three-breed rotational crosses, rather than their raw data. A genomic prediction model taking into account the breed-origin of alleles (BOA) was considered. Because of a high genomic correlation between the breeds simulated (0.62-0.87), the prediction accuracies using the BOA approach were similar to a joint model, assuming homogeneous SNP effects for these breeds. Having a reference population with summary statistics available from all pure breeds and full phenotype and genotype information from crossbreds yielded almost as high prediction accuracies (0.720-0.768) as having a reference population with full information from all pure breeds and crossbreds (0.753-0.789). Lacking information from the pure breeds yielded much lower prediction accuracies (0.590-0.676). Furthermore, including crossbred animals in a combined reference population also benefitted prediction accuracies in the purebred animals, especially for the smallest breed population.

Viral nervous necrosis resistance in gilthead sea bream (Sparus aurata) at the larval stage: heritability and accuracy of genomic prediction with different training and testing settings

BACKGROUND

The gilthead sea bream (Sparus aurata) has long been considered resistant to viral nervous necrosis (VNN), until recently, when significant mortalities caused by a reassortant nervous necrosis virus (NNV) strain were reported. Selective breeding to enhance resistance against NNV might be a preventive action. In this study, 972 sea bream larvae were subjected to a NNV challenge test and the symptomatology was recorded. All the experimental fish and their parents were genotyped using a genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array consisting of over 26,000 markers.

RESULTS

Estimates of pedigree-based and genomic heritabilities of VNN symptomatology were consistent with each other (0.21, highest posterior density interval at 95% (HPD95%): 0.1-0.4; 0.19, HPD95%: 0.1-0.3, respectively). The genome-wide association study suggested one genomic region, i.e., in linkage group (LG) 23 that might be involved in sea bream VNN resistance, although it was far from the genome-wide significance threshold. The accuracies (r) of the predicted estimated breeding values (EBV) provided by three Bayesian genomic regression models (Bayes B, Bayes C, and Ridge Regression) were consistent and on average were equal to 0.90 when assessed in a set of cross-validation (CV) procedures. When genomic relationships between training and testing sets were minimized, accuracy decreased greatly (r = 0.53 for a validation based on genomic clustering, r = 0.12 for a validation based on a leave-one-family-out approach focused on the parents of the challenged fish). Classification of the phenotype using the genomic predictions of the phenotype or using the genomic predictions of the pedigree-based, all data included, EBV as classifiers was moderately accurate (area under the ROC curve 0.60 and 0.66, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The estimate of the heritability for VNN symptomatology indicates that it is feasible to implement selective breeding programs for increased resistance to VNN of sea bream larvae/juveniles. Exploiting genomic information offers the opportunity of developing prediction tools for VNN resistance, and genomic models can be trained on EBV using all data or phenotypes, with minimal differences in classification performance of the trait phenotype. In a long-term view, the weakening of the genomic ties between animals in the training and test sets leads to decreased genomic prediction accuracies, thus periodical update of the reference population with new data is mandatory.

Genomic prediction in pigs using data from a commercial crossbred population: insights from the Duroc x (Landrace x Yorkshire) three-way crossbreeding system

BACKGROUND

Genomic selection is widely applied for genetic improvement in livestock crossbreeding systems to select excellent nucleus purebred (PB) animals and to improve the performance of commercial crossbred (CB) animals. Most current predictions are based solely on PB performance. Our objective was to explore the potential application of genomic selection of PB animals using genotypes of CB animals with extreme phenotypes in a three-way crossbreeding system as the reference population. Using real genotyped PB as ancestors, we simulated the production of 100,000 pigs for a Duroc x (Landrace x Yorkshire) DLY crossbreeding system. The predictive performance of breeding values of PB animals for CB performance using genotypes and phenotypes of (1) PB animals, (2) DLY animals with extreme phenotypes, and (3) random DLY animals for traits of different heritabilities ([Formula: see text] = 0.1, 0.3, and 0.5) was compared across different reference population sizes (500 to 6500) and prediction models (genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) and Bayesian sparse linear mixed model (BSLMM)).

RESULTS

Using a reference population consisting of CB animals with extreme phenotypes showed a definite predictive advantage for medium- and low-heritability traits and, in combination with the BSLMM model, significantly improved selection response for CB performance. For high-heritability traits, the predictive performance of a reference population of extreme CB phenotypes was comparable to that of PB phenotypes when the effect of the genetic correlation between PB and CB performance ([Formula: see text]) on the accuracy obtained with a PB reference population was considered, and the former could exceed the latter if the reference size was large enough. For the selection of the first and terminal sires in a three-way crossbreeding system, prediction using extreme CB phenotypes outperformed the use of PB phenotypes, while the optimal design of the reference group for the first dam depended on the percentage of individuals from the corresponding breed that the PB reference data comprised and on the heritability of the target trait.

CONCLUSIONS

A commercial crossbred population is promising for the design of the reference population for genomic prediction, and selective genotyping of CB animals with extreme phenotypes has the potential for maximizing genetic improvement for CB performance in the pig industry.

A comparison of methods for training population optimization in genomic selection

Maximizing CDmean and Avg_GRM_self were the best criteria for training set optimization. A training set size of 50-55% (targeted) or 65-85% (untargeted) is needed to obtain 95% of the accuracy.  With the advent of genomic selection (GS) as a widespread breeding tool, mechanisms to efficiently design an optimal training set for GS models became more relevant, since they allow maximizing the accuracy while minimizing the phenotyping costs. The literature described many training set optimization methods, but there is a lack of a comprehensive comparison among them. This work aimed to provide an extensive benchmark among optimization methods and optimal training set size by testing a wide range of them in seven datasets, six different species, different genetic architectures, population structure, heritabilities, and with several GS models to provide some guidelines about their application in breeding programs. Our results showed that targeted optimization (uses information from the test set) performed better than untargeted (does not use test set data), especially when heritability was low. The mean coefficient of determination was the best targeted method, although it was computationally intensive. Minimizing the average relationship within the training set was the best strategy for untargeted optimization. Regarding the optimal training set size, maximum accuracy was obtained when the training set was the entire candidate set. Nevertheless, a 50-55% of the candidate set was enough to reach 95-100% of the maximum accuracy in the targeted scenario, while we needed a 65-85% for untargeted optimization. Our results also suggested that a diverse training set makes GS robust against population structure, while including clustering information was less effective. The choice of the GS model did not have a significant influence on the prediction accuracies.

Genomic evaluation of commercial herds with different pedigree structures using the single-step genomic BLUP in Nelore cattle

The aim of this work was to evaluate the impact of applying genomic information in pedigree uncertainty situations on genetic evaluations for growth- and cow productivity-related traits in Nelore commercial herds. Records for accumulated cow productivity (ACP) and adjusted weight at 450 days of age (W450) were used, as well as genotypes of registered and commercial herd animals, genotyped with the Clarifide Nelore 3.1 panel (~29,000 SNPs). The genetic values for commercial and registered populations were estimated using different approaches that included (ssGBLUP) or did not include genomic information (BLUP), with different pedigree structures. Different scenarios were tested, varying the proportion of young animals with unknown sires (0, 25, 50, 75, and 100%), and unknown maternal grandsires (0, 25, 50, 75, and 100%). The prediction accuracies and abilities were calculated. The estimated breeding value accuracies decreased as the proportion of unknown sires and maternal grandsires increased. The genomic estimated breeding value accuracy using the ssGBLUP was higher in scenarios with a lower proportion of known pedigree when compared to the BLUP methodology. The results obtained with the ssGBLUP showed that it is possible to obtain reliable direct and indirect predictions for young animals from commercial herds without pedigree structure.

The association of immune response and colostral immunoglobulin G in Canadian and US Holstein-Friesian dairy cows

In cattle, maternal immunoglobulins are transferred through colostrum to provide passive immunity to the neonatal calf once they are absorbed into circulation. Cows can be assessed for antibody- and cell-mediated immune responses (AMIR and CMIR, respectively), and through estimated breeding values (EBV) and genomic parent averages (GPA), cows can be classified as having high, average, or low immune response (IR). The objective of this study was to identify associations of colostral IgG concentrations with IR in dairy cows. High IR dairy cows identified by GPA or EBV were hypothesized to produce higher colostral IgG concentrations than cows with average or low IR. Colostrum was collected from Holstein dairy cows from 3 large commercial herds (n = 590) in the United States and 1 research herd at the Ontario Dairy Research Centre (n = 275) in Canada. For the US herds, IR GPA were available through genotyping. For the Canadian herd, IR EBV were available through phenotyping and pedigree information. Colostral IgG concentrations were measured by radial immunodiffusion and analyzed using general linear models in SAS. Based on a prediction equation, cows in US herds with a CMIR GPA of 1 would have colostral IgG concentrations 6.3 g/L higher on average than cows with a CMIR GPA of 0. High CMIR cows produced statistically greater colostral IgG concentrations (least squares mean ± standard error of the mean, 107.5 ± 7.7 g/L) than low CMIR cows (91.4 ± 7.1 g/L), with intermediate values for average CMIR cows (105.1 ± 5.6 g/L). No differences were found among AMIR categories in US cows. The Canadian herd showed a trend for cows with high CMIR EBV (continuous variable) to produce greater colostral IgG. No differences were observed among high, average, and low AMIR EBV classifications in Canadian cows. The findings suggest that selective breeding of Holstein cows to enhance CMIR could contribute to higher-quality colostrum in succeeding generations.

Nonparallel genome changes within subpopulations over time contributed to genetic diversity within the US Holstein population

Maintaining genetic variation in a population is important for long-term genetic gain. The existence of subpopulations within a breed helps maintain genetic variation and diversity. The 20,990 genotyped animals, representing the breeding animals in the year 2014, were identified as the sires of animals born after 2010 with at least 25 progenies, and females measured for type traits within the last 2 yr of data. K-means clustering with 5 clusters (C1, C2, C3, C4, and C5) was applied to the genomic relationship matrix based on 58,990 SNP markers to stratify the selected candidates into subpopulations. The general higher inbreeding resulting from within-cluster mating than across-cluster mating suggests the successful stratification into genetically different groups. The largest cluster (C4) contained animals that were less related to each animal within and across clusters. The average fixation index was 0.03, indicating that the populations were differentiated, and allele differences across the subpopulations were not due to drift alone. Starting with the selected candidates within each cluster, a family unit was identified by tracing back through the pedigree, identifying the genotyped ancestors, and assigning them to a pseudogeneration. Each of the 5 families (F1, F2, F3, F4, and F5) was traced back for 10 generations, allowing for changes in frequency of individual SNPs over time to be observed, which we call allele frequencies change. Alternative procedures were used to identify SNPs changing in a parallel or nonparallel way across families. For example, markers that have changed the most in the whole population, markers that have changed differently across families, and genes previously identified as those that have changed in allele frequency. The genomic trajectory taken by each family involves selective sweeps, polygenic changes, hitchhiking, and epistasis. The replicate frequency spectrum was used to measure the similarity of change across families and showed that populations have changed differently. The proportion of markers that reversed direction in allele frequency change varied from 0.00 to 0.02 if the rate of change was greater than 0.02 per generation, or from 0.14 to 0.24 if the rate of change was greater than 0.005 per generation within each family. Cluster-specific SNP effects for stature were estimated using only females and applied to obtain indirect genomic predictions for males. Reranking occurs depending on SNP effects used. Additive genetic correlations between clusters show possible differences in populations. Further research is required to determine how this knowledge can be applied to maintain diversity and optimize selection decisions in the future.

High-precision early warning system for rice cadmium accumulation risk assessment

Rapid global industrialization has resulted in widespread cadmium contamination in agricultural soils and products. A considerable proportion of rice consumers are exposed to Cd levels above the provisional safe intake limit, raising widespread environmental concerns on risk management. Therefore, a generalized approach is urgently needed to enable correct evaluation and early warning of cadmium contaminants in rice products. Combining big data and computer science together, this study developed a system named "SMART Cd Early Warning", which integrated 4 modules including genotype-to-phenotype (G2P) modelling, high-throughput sequencing, G2P prediction and rice Cd contamination risk assessment, for rice cadmium accumulation early warning. This system can rapidly assess the risk of rice cadmium accumulation by genotyping leaves at seeding stage. The parameters including statistical methods, population size, training population-testing population ratio, SNP density were assessed to ensure G2P model exhibited superior performance in terms of prediction precision (up to 0.76 ± 0.003) and computing efficiency (within 2 h). In field trials of cadmium-contaminated farmlands in Wenling and Fuyang city, Zhejiang Province, "SMART Cd Early Warning" exhibited superior capability for identification risk rice varieties, suggesting a potential of "SMART Cd Early-Warning system" in OsGCd risk assessment and early warning in the age of smart.

Weighted kernels improve multi-environment genomic prediction

Crucial to variety improvement programs is the reliable and accurate prediction of genotype's performance across environments. However, due to the impactful presence of genotype by environment (G×E) interaction that dictates how changes in expression and function of genes influence target traits in different environments, prediction performance of genomic selection (GS) using single-environment models often falls short. Furthermore, despite the successes of genome-wide association studies (GWAS), the genetic insights derived from genome-to-phenome mapping have not yet been incorporated in predictive analytics, making GS models that use Gaussian kernel primarily an estimator of genomic similarity, instead of the underlying genetics characteristics of the populations. Here, we developed a GS framework that, in addition to capturing the overall genomic relationship, can capitalize on the signal of genetic associations of the phenotypic variation as well as the genetic characteristics of the populations. The capacity of predicting the performance of populations across environments was demonstrated by an overall gain in predictability up to 31% for the winter wheat DH population. Compared to Gaussian kernels, we showed that our multi-environment weighted kernels could better leverage the significance of genetic associations and yielded a marked improvement of 4-33% in prediction accuracy for half-sib families. Furthermore, the flexibility incorporated in our Bayesian implementation provides the generalizable capacity required for predicting multiple highly genetic heterogeneous populations across environments, allowing reliable GS for genetic improvement programs that have no access to genetically uniform material.

Boundaries for genotype, phenotype, and pedigree truncation in genomic evaluations in pigs

Historical data collection for genetic evaluation purposes is a common practice in animal populations; however, the larger the dataset, the higher the computing power needed to perform the analyses. Also, fitting the same model to historical and recent data may be inappropriate. Data truncation can reduce the number of equations to solve, consequently decreasing computing costs; however, the large volume of genotypes is responsible for most of the increase in computations. This study aimed to assess the impact of removing genotypes along with phenotypes and pedigree on the computing performance, reliability, and inflation of genomic predicted breeding value (GEBV) from single-step genomic best linear unbiased predictor for selection candidates. Data from two pig lines, a terminal sire (L1) and a maternal line (L2), were analyzed in this study. Four analyses were implemented: growth and "weaning to finish" mortality on L1, pre-weaning and reproductive traits on L2. Four genotype removal scenarios were proposed: removing genotyped animals without phenotypes and progeny (noInfo), removing genotyped animals based on birth year (Age), the combination of noInfo and Age scenarios (noInfo + Age), and no genotype removal (AllGen). In all scenarios, phenotypes were removed, based on birth year, and three pedigree depths were tested: two and three generations traced back and using the entire pedigree. The full dataset contained 1,452,257 phenotypes for growth traits, 324,397 for weaning to finish mortality, 517,446 for pre-weaning traits, and 7,853,629 for reproductive traits in pure and crossbred pigs. Pedigree files for lines L1 and L2 comprised 3,601,369 and 11,240,865 animals, of which 168,734 and 170,121 were genotyped, respectively. In each truncation scenario, the linear regression method was used to assess the reliability and dispersion of GEBV for genotyped parents (born after 2019). The number of years of data that could be removed without harming reliability depended on the number of records, type of analyses (multitrait vs. single trait), the heritability of the trait, and data structure. All scenarios had similar reliabilities, except for noInfo, which performed better in the growth analysis. Based on the data used in this study, considering the last ten years of phenotypes, tracing three generations back in the pedigree, and removing genotyped animals not contributing own or progeny phenotypes, increases computing efficiency with no change in the ability to predict breeding values.

Genetic Comparisons of Body Weight, Average Daily Gain, and Breast Circumference between Slow-Growing Thai Native Chickens (Pradu Hang dum) Raised On-Site Farm and On-Station

To ensure that any new technology developed within an experimental station is appropriate to the community’s needs and compatible with the existing systems, on-site farm research is an important component in examining the effectiveness of agricultural research. The present study examined the growth performance and genetics of Thai native chickens under conditions typically experienced by farmers on smallholder farms (on-site farms) compared with at an experimental unit (on-station). There were 1694 Thai native chickens (Pradu Hang dum) used in this experiment, and they were divided into 613 chickens for the on-station and 1081 chickens for the on-site farm experiments. The individual chicken data included the birth weight (BW0) and body weight at 4, 8, 12, and 16 weeks of age (BW4, BW8, BW12, and BW16, respectively), ADG from 0−4, 4−8, 8−12, 12−16 weeks of age (ADG0−4, ADG4−8, ADG8−12, ADG12−16, respectively), and breast circumference at 8, 12, and 16 weeks of age (BrC8, BrC12, BrC16, respectively). A multiple traits animal model and a selection index were used to estimate the variance components, genetic parameters, and breeding values of growth traits. The results showed that the body weight, average daily gain, and breast circumference at 8, 12, and 16 weeks of age of Thai native chickens raised on-station were higher than those raised on-site at the farm among mixed-sex and sex-segregated chickens, while the birth weight and body weight at four weeks of age (BW0 and BW4) and ADG from 0−4 weeks of age (ADG0−4) were not significantly different (p > 0.05). The heritability estimates of body weight, average daily gain, and breast circumference in the chickens raised at the on-site farm and on-station were moderate to high, with on-station values slightly higher than on-site farm values. The heritability estimates of body weight were 0.236 to 0.499 for the on-site farm, and 0.291 to 0.499 for on-station. For average daily gain, the heritability estimates were 0.274 to 0.283 for the on-site farm and 0.298 to 0.313 for on-station; meanwhile, and for breast circumference, the heritability estimates were 0.204 to 0.268 for the on-site farm and 0.278 to 0.296 for on-station. Both phenotypic and genetic correlations among and between growth traits were positive and ranged from low to high values. The top 20% of the estimated breeding values and selection indices in the on-site farm and on-station experiments showed that the body weight at eight weeks of age (BW8), ADG from 4−8 weeks of age (ADG4−8), and breast circumference at eight weeks of age (BrC8) should be used as selection criteria for Thai native chicken breeding programs. In conclusion, the genetic parameters and breeding values in on-station experiments showed that the breeding program by selection index for improving growth performance is valid. Therefore, to implement such a breeding program in an on-site farm, an intensive or semi-intensive farm system should be considered to minimize the effect of genotype-environment interaction.

Phenomic selection in wheat breeding: prediction of the genotype-by-environment interaction in multi-environment breeding trials

Phenomic prediction of wheat grain yield and heading date in different multi-environmental trial scenarios is accurate. Modelling the genotype-by-environment interaction effect using phenomic data is a potentially low-cost complement to genomic prediction. The performance of wheat cultivars in multi-environmental trials (MET) is difficult to predict because of the genotype-by-environment interactions (G × E). Phenomic selection is supposed to be efficient for modelling the G × E effect because it accounts for non-additive effects. Here, phenomic data are near-infrared (NIR) spectra obtained from plant material. While phenomic selection has recently been shown to accurately predict wheat grain yield in single environments, its accuracy needs to be investigated for MET. We used four datasets from two winter wheat breeding programs to test and compare the predictive abilities of phenomic and genomic models for grain yield and heading date in different MET scenarios. We also compared different methods to model the G × E using different covariance matrices based on spectra. On average, phenomic and genomic prediction abilities are similar in all different MET scenarios. Better predictive abilities were obtained when G × E effects were modelled with NIR spectra than without them, and it was better to use all the spectra of all genotypes in all environments for modelling the G × E. To facilitate the implementation of phenomic prediction, we tested MET designs where the NIR spectra were measured only on the genotype-environment combinations phenotyped for the target trait. Missing spectra were predicted with a weighted multivariate ridge regression. Intermediate predictive abilities for grain yield were obtained in a sparse testing scenario and for new genotypes, which shows that phenomic selection is an efficient and practicable prediction method for dealing with G × E.

Genomic selection in tropical perennial crops and plantation trees: a review

To overcome the multiple challenges currently faced by agriculture, such as climate change and soil deterioration, more efficient plant breeding strategies are required. Genomic selection (GS) is crucial for the genetic improvement of quantitative traits, as it can increase selection intensity, shorten the generation interval, and improve selection accuracy for traits that are difficult to phenotype. Tropical perennial crops and plantation trees are of major economic importance and have consequently been the subject of many GS articles. In this review, we discuss the factors that affect GS accuracy (statistical models, linkage disequilibrium, information concerning markers, relatedness between training and target populations, the size of the training population, and trait heritability) and the genetic gain expected in these species. The impact of GS will be particularly strong in tropical perennial crops and plantation trees as they have long breeding cycles and constrained selection intensity. Future GS prospects are also discussed. High-throughput phenotyping will allow constructing of large training populations and implementing of phenomic selection. Optimized modeling is needed for longitudinal traits and multi-environment trials. The use of multi-omics, haploblocks, and structural variants will enable going beyond single-locus genotype data. Innovative statistical approaches, like artificial neural networks, are expected to efficiently handle the increasing amounts of heterogeneous multi-scale data. Targeted recombinations on sites identified from profiles of marker effects have the potential to further increase genetic gain. GS can also aid re-domestication and introgression breeding. Finally, GS consortia will play an important role in making the best of these opportunities.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11032-022-01326-4.

International single-step SNPBLUP beef cattle evaluations for Limousin weaning weight

Background

Compared to national evaluations, international collaboration projects further improve accuracies of estimated breeding values (EBV) by building larger reference populations or performing a joint evaluation using data (or proxy of them) from different countries. Genomic selection is increasingly adopted in beef cattle, but, to date, the benefits of including genomic information in international evaluations have not been explored. Our objective was to develop an international beef cattle single-step genomic evaluation and investigate its impact on the accuracy and bias of genomic evaluations compared to current pedigree-based evaluations.

Methods

Weaning weight records were available for 331,593 animals from seven European countries. The pedigree included 519,740 animals. After imputation and quality control, 17,607 genotypes at a density of 57,899 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from four countries were available. We implemented two international scenarios where countries were modelled as different correlated traits: an international genomic single-step SNP best linear unbiased prediction (SNPBLUP) evaluation (ssSNPBLUP_INT) and an international pedigree-based BLUP evaluation (PBLUP_INT). Two national scenarios were implemented for pedigree and genomic evaluations using only nationally submitted phenotypes and genotypes. Accuracies, level and dispersion bias of EBV of animals born from 2014 onwards, and increases in population accuracies were estimated using the linear regression method.

Results

On average across countries, 39 and 17% of sires and maternal-grand-sires with recorded (grand-)offspring across two countries were genotyped. ssSNPBLUP_INT showed the highest accuracies of EBV and, compared to PBLUP_INT, led to increases in population accuracy of 13.7% for direct EBV, and 25.8% for maternal EBV, on average across countries. Increases in population accuracies when moving from national scenarios to ssSNPBLUP_INT were observed for all countries. Overall, ssSNPBLUP_INT level and dispersion bias remained similar or slightly reduced compared to PBLUP_INT and national scenarios.

Conclusions

International single-step SNPBLUP evaluations are feasible and lead to higher population accuracies for both large and small countries compared to current international pedigree-based evaluations and national evaluations. These results are likely related to the larger multi-country reference population and the inclusion of phenotypes from relatives recorded in other countries via single-step international evaluations. The proposed international single-step approach can be applied to other traits and breeds.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12711-022-00748-0.

Genomic prediction of hybrid performance: comparison of the efficiency of factorial and tester designs used as training sets in a multiparental connected reciprocal design for maize silage

Calibrating a genomic selection model on a sparse factorial design rather than on tester designs is advantageous for some traits, and equivalent for others. In maize breeding, the selection of the candidate inbred lines is based on topcross evaluations using a limited number of testers. Then, a subset of single-crosses between these selected lines is evaluated to identify the best hybrid combinations. Genomic selection enables the prediction of all possible single-crosses between candidate lines but raises the question of defining the best training set design. Previous simulation results have shown the potential of using a sparse factorial design instead of tester designs as the training set. To validate this result, a 363 hybrid factorial design was obtained by crossing 90 dent and flint inbred lines from six segregating families. Two tester designs were also obtained by crossing the same inbred lines to two testers of the opposite group. These designs were evaluated for silage in eight environments and used to predict independent performances of a 951 hybrid factorial design. At a same number of hybrids and lines, the factorial design was as efficient as the tester designs, and, for some traits, outperformed them. All available designs were used as both training and validation set to evaluate their efficiency. When the objective was to predict single-crosses between untested lines, we showed an advantage of increasing the number of lines involved in the training set, by (1) allocating each of them to a different tester for the tester design, or (2) reducing the number of hybrids per line for the factorial design. Our results confirm the potential of sparse factorial designs for genomic hybrid breeding.

Optimizing the Construction and Update Strategies for the Genomic Selection of Pig Reference and Candidate Populations in China

Optimizing the construction and update strategies for reference and candidate populations is the basis of the application of genomic selection (GS). In this study, we first simulated1200-purebred-pigs population that have been popular in China for 20 generations to study the effects of different population sizes and the relationship between individuals of the reference and candidate populations. The results showed that the accuracy was positively correlated with the size of the reference population within the same generation (r = 0.9366, p < 0.05), while was negatively correlated with the number of generation intervals between the reference and candidate populations (r = −0.9267, p < 0.01). When the reference population accumulated more than seven generations, the accuracy began to decline. We then simulated the population structure of 1200 purebred pigs for five generations and studied the effects of different heritabilities (0.1, 0.3, and 0.5), genotyping proportions (20, 30, and 50%), and sex ratios on the accuracy of the genomic estimate breeding value (GEBV) and genetic progress. The results showed that if the proportion of genotyping individuals accounts for 20% of the candidate population, the traits with different heritabilities can be genotyped according to the sex ratio of 1:1male to female. If the proportion is 30% and the traits are of low heritability (0.1), the sex ratio of 1:1 male to female is the best. If the traits are of medium or high heritability, the male-to-female ratio is 1:1, 1:2, or 2:1, which may achieve higher genetic progress. If the genotyping proportion is up to 50%, for low heritability traits (0.1), the proportion of sows from all genotyping individuals should not be less than 25%, and for the medium and high heritability traits, the optimal choice for the male-to-female ratio is 1:1, which may obtain the greatest genetic progress. This study provides a reference for determining a construction and update plan for the reference population of breeding pigs.

Genetic Characterization and Population Connectedness of North American and European Dairy Goats

Genomic prediction of breeding values is routinely performed in several livestock breeding programs around the world, but the size of the training populations and the genetic structure of populations evaluated have, in many instances, limited the increase in the accuracy of genomic estimated breeding values. Combining phenotypic, pedigree, and genomic data from genetically related populations can be a feasible strategy to overcome this limitation. However, the success of across-population genetic evaluations depends on the pedigree connectedness and genetic relationship among individuals from different populations. In this context, this study aimed to evaluate the genetic connectedness and population structure of Alpine and Saanen dairy goats from four countries involved in the European project SMARTER (SMAll RuminanTs Breeding for Efficiency and Resilience), including Canada, France, Italy, and Switzerland. These analyses are paramount for assessing the potential feasibility of an across-country genomic evaluation in dairy goats. Approximately, 9,855 genotyped individuals (with 51% French genotyped animals) and 6,435,189 animals included in the pedigree files were available across all four populations. The pedigree analyses indicated that the exchange of breeding animals was mainly unilateral with flows from France to the other three countries. Italy has also imported breeding animals from Switzerland. Principal component analyses (PCAs), genetic admixture analysis, and consistency of the gametic phase revealed that French and Italian populations are more genetically related than the other dairy goat population pairs. Canadian dairy goats showed the largest within-breed heterogeneity and genetic differences with the European populations. The genetic diversity and population connectedness between the studied populations indicated that an international genomic evaluation may be more feasible, especially for French and Italian goats. Further studies will investigate the accuracy of genomic breeding values when combining the datasets from these four populations.

Building a Calibration Set for Genomic Prediction, Characteristics to Be Considered, and Optimization Approaches

The efficiency of genomic selection strongly depends on the prediction accuracy of the genetic merit of candidates. Numerous papers have shown that the composition of the calibration set is a key contributor to prediction accuracy. A poorly defined calibration set can result in low accuracies, whereas an optimized one can considerably increase accuracy compared to random sampling, for a same size. Alternatively, optimizing the calibration set can be a way of decreasing the costs of phenotyping by enabling similar levels of accuracy compared to random sampling but with fewer phenotypic units. We present here the different factors that have to be considered when designing a calibration set, and review the different criteria proposed in the literature. We classified these criteria into two groups: model-free criteria based on relatedness, and criteria derived from the linear mixed model. We introduce criteria targeting specific prediction objectives including the prediction of highly diverse panels, biparental families, or hybrids. We also review different ways of updating the calibration set, and different procedures for optimizing phenotyping experimental designs.

Prediction performance of linear models and gradient boosting machine on complex phenotypes in outbred mice

We compared the performance of linear (GBLUP, BayesB, and elastic net) methods to a nonparametric tree-based ensemble (gradient boosting machine) method for genomic prediction of complex traits in mice. The dataset used contained genotypes for 50,112 SNP markers and phenotypes for 835 animals from 6 generations. Traits analyzed were bone mineral density, body weight at 10, 15, and 20 weeks, fat percentage, circulating cholesterol, glucose, insulin, triglycerides, and urine creatinine. The youngest generation was used as a validation subset, and predictions were based on all older generations. Model performance was evaluated by comparing predictions for animals in the validation subset against their adjusted phenotypes. Linear models outperformed gradient boosting machine for 7 out of 10 traits. For bone mineral density, cholesterol, and glucose, the gradient boosting machine model showed better prediction accuracy and lower relative root mean squared error than the linear models. Interestingly, for these 3 traits, there is evidence of a relevant portion of phenotypic variance being explained by epistatic effects. Using a subset of top markers selected from a gradient boosting machine model helped for some of the traits to improve the accuracy of prediction when these were fitted into linear and gradient boosting machine models. Our results indicate that gradient boosting machine is more strongly affected by data size and decreased connectedness between reference and validation sets than the linear models. Although the linear models outperformed gradient boosting machine for the polygenic traits, our results suggest that gradient boosting machine is a competitive method to predict complex traits with assumed epistatic effects.

The long-term effects of genomic selection: 1. Response to selection, additive genetic variance, and genetic architecture

Background

Genomic selection has revolutionized genetic improvement in animals and plants, but little is known about its long-term effects. Here, we investigated the long-term effects of genomic selection on response to selection, genetic variance, and the genetic architecture of traits using stochastic simulations. We defined the genetic architecture as the set of causal loci underlying each trait, their allele frequencies, and their statistical additive effects. We simulated a livestock population under 50 generations of phenotypic, pedigree, or genomic selection for a single trait, controlled by either only additive, additive and dominance, or additive, dominance, and epistatic effects. The simulated epistasis was based on yeast data.

Results

Short-term response was always greatest with genomic selection, while response after 50 generations was greater with phenotypic selection than with genomic selection when epistasis was present, and was always greater than with pedigree selection. This was mainly because loss of genetic variance and of segregating loci was much greater with genomic and pedigree selection than with phenotypic selection. Compared to pedigree selection, selection response was always greater with genomic selection. Pedigree and genomic selection lost a similar amount of genetic variance after 50 generations of selection, but genomic selection maintained more segregating loci, which on average had lower minor allele frequencies than with pedigree selection. Based on this result, genomic selection is expected to better maintain genetic gain after 50 generations than pedigree selection. The amount of change in the genetic architecture of traits was considerable across generations and was similar for genomic and pedigree selection, but slightly less for phenotypic selection. Presence of epistasis resulted in smaller changes in allele frequencies and less fixation of causal loci, but resulted in substantial changes in statistical additive effects across generations.

Conclusions

Our results show that genomic selection outperforms pedigree selection in terms of long-term genetic gain, but results in a similar reduction of genetic variance. The genetic architecture of traits changed considerably across generations, especially under selection and when non-additive effects were present. In conclusion, non-additive effects had a substantial impact on the accuracy of selection and long-term response to selection, especially when selection was accurate.

Phenomic selection in wheat breeding: identification and optimisation of factors influencing prediction accuracy and comparison to genomic selection

Phenomic selection is a promising alternative or complement to genomic selection in wheat breeding. Models combining spectra from different environments maximise the predictive ability of grain yield and heading date of wheat breeding lines. Phenomic selection (PS) is a recent breeding approach similar to genomic selection (GS) except that genotyping is replaced by near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy. PS can potentially account for non-additive effects and has the major advantage of being low cost and high throughput. Factors influencing GS predictive abilities have been intensively studied, but little is known about PS. We tested and compared the abilities of PS and GS to predict grain yield and heading date from several datasets of bread wheat lines corresponding to the first or second years of trial evaluation from two breeding companies and one research institute in France. We evaluated several factors affecting PS predictive abilities including the possibility of combining spectra collected in different environments. A simple H-BLUP model predicted both traits with prediction ability from 0.26 to 0.62 and with an efficient computation time. Our results showed that the environments in which lines are grown had a crucial impact on predictive ability based on the spectra acquired and was specific to the trait considered. Models combining NIR spectra from different environments were the best PS models and were at least as accurate as GS in most of the datasets. Furthermore, a GH-BLUP model combining genotyping and NIR spectra was the best model of all (prediction ability from 0.31 to 0.73). We demonstrated also that as for GS, the size and the composition of the training set have a crucial impact on predictive ability. PS could therefore replace or complement GS for efficient wheat breeding programs.

Development of genomic predictions for Angus cattle in Brazil incorporating genotypes from related American sires

Genomic prediction has become the new standard for genetic improvement programs, and currently, there is a desire to implement this technology for the evaluation of Angus cattle in Brazil. Thus, the main objective of this study was to assess the feasibility of evaluating young Brazilian Angus (BA) bulls and heifers for 12 routinely recorded traits using single-step genomic BLUP (ssGBLUP) with and without genotypes from American Angus (AA) sires. The second objective was to obtain estimates of effective population size (Ne) and linkage disequilibrium (LD) in the Brazilian Angus population. The dataset contained phenotypic information for up to 277,661 animals belonging to the Promebo breeding program, pedigree for 362,900, of which 1,386 were genotyped for 50k, 77k, and 150k single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) panels. After imputation and quality control, 61,666 SNPs were available for the analyses. In addition, genotypes from 332 American Angus (AA) sires widely used in Brazil were retrieved from the AA Association database to be used for genomic predictions. Bivariate animal models were used to estimate variance components, traditional EBV, and genomic EBV (GEBV). Validation was carried out with the linear regression method (LR) using young-genotyped animals born between 2013 and 2015 without phenotypes in the reduced dataset and with records in the complete dataset. Validation animals were further split into progeny of BA and AA sires to evaluate if their progenies would benefit by including genotypes from AA sires. The Ne was 254 based on pedigree and 197 based on LD, and the average LD (±SD) and distance between adjacent single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) across all chromosomes were 0.27 (±0.27) and 40743.68 bp, respectively. Prediction accuracies with ssGBLUP outperformed BLUP for all traits, improving accuracies by, on average, 16% for BA young bulls and heifers. The GEBV prediction accuracies ranged from 0.37 (total maternal for weaning weight and tick count) to 0.54 (yearling precocity) across all traits, and dispersion (LR coefficients) fluctuated between 0.92 and 1.06. Inclusion of genotyped sires from the AA improved GEBV accuracies by 2%, on average, compared to using only the BA reference population. Our study indicated that genomic information could help us to improve GEBV accuracies and hence genetic progress in the Brazilian Angus population. The inclusion of genotypes from American Angus sires heavily used in Brazil just marginally increased the GEBV accuracies for selection candidates.

Genetic Evaluation of Body Weights and Egg Production Traits Using a Multi-Trait Animal Model and Selection Index in Thai Native Synthetic Chickens (Kaimook e-san2)

To improve the genetics of both growth and egg production, which are limitations in purebred native chickens, new genetic lines can be developed using an appropriate genetic approach. The data used in this study included 2713 body weight (BW0, BW4, BW6, BW8, and BW10), breast circumference (BrC6), chicken age at first egg (AFE), and egg production (240EP, 270EP, 300EP, and 365EP) records covering the period 2015 to 2020. A multi-trait animal model with the average information-restricted maximum likelihood (AI-REML) and a selection index was used to estimate the variance components, genetic parameters, and breeding values. The results showed that males had significantly higher weights than females (p < 0.05) from 4 to 10 weeks of age and that this difference increased over the generations. The differences between BW0 and BrC6 by sex and generation were not significant (p > 0.05). The estimated heritability of body weight ranged from 0.642 (BW0) to 0.280 (BW10); meanwhile, the estimated heritability of BrC6 was moderate (0.284). For egg production traits, the estimated heritability of 240EP, 270EP, 300EP, and 365EP was 0.427, 0.403, 0.404, and 0.426, respectively, while the estimated heritability of AFE was 0.269. The genetic and phenotypic correlations among the growth traits (BW0 to BW10) were low to highly positive. The genetic and phenotypic correlations between growth (BW0 to BW10) and BrC6 traits were positive, and the genetic correlations between BW6 (0.80), BW8 (0.84), BW10 (0.93), and BrC6 were strongly positive. Genetic correlations among the egg production traits (240EP, 270EP, 300EP, and 365EP) were low to highly positive and ranged from 0.04 to 0.86. The genetic correlations between AFE and all egg production traits were low to moderately negative and ranged from −0.14 to −0.29. The positive genetic correlations between body weight (BW6, BW8, and BW10) and egg production traits were found only in 240EP. The average genetic progress of body weight traits ranged from −0.38 to 30.12 g per generation for BW0 to BW10 (p < 0.05); the genetic progress was 0.28 cm per generation for BrC6 (p > 0.05). The average genetic progress of cumulative egg production traits ranged from 4.25 to 12.42 eggs per generation for 240EP to 365EP (p < 0.05), while the average genetic progress of AFE was −7.12 days per generation (p < 0.05). In conclusion, our study suggests that the body weight at six weeks of age (BW6), breast circumference at six weeks of age (BrC6), cumulative egg production at 240 days of age (240EP), and age at first egg (AFE) are the traits that should be used as selection criteria, as they have a positive effect on the development of growth and egg production.

Genomic Prediction: Progress and Perspectives for Rice Improvement

Genomic prediction can be a powerful tool to achieve greater rates of genetic gain for quantitative traits if thoroughly integrated into a breeding strategy. In rice as in other crops, the interest in genomic prediction is very strong with a number of studies addressing multiple aspects of its use, ranging from the more conceptual to the more practical. In this chapter, we review the literature on rice (Oryza sativa) and summarize important considerations for the integration of genomic prediction in breeding programs. The irrigated breeding program at the International Rice Research Institute is used as a concrete example on which we provide data and R scripts to reproduce the analysis but also to highlight practical challenges regarding the use of predictions. The adage "To someone with a hammer, everything looks like a nail" describes a common psychological pitfall that sometimes plagues the integration and application of new technologies to a discipline. We have designed this chapter to help rice breeders avoid that pitfall and appreciate the benefits and limitations of applying genomic prediction, as it is not always the best approach nor the first step to increasing the rate of genetic gain in every context.

Genomic Prediction of Complex Traits, Principles, Overview of Factors Affecting the Reliability of Genomic Prediction, and Algebra of the Reliability

The quality of the predictions of genetic values based on the genotyping of neutral markers (GEBVs) is a key information to decide whether or not to implement genomic selection. This quality depends on the part of the genetic variability captured by the markers and on the precision of the estimate of their effects. Selection index theory provided the framework for evaluating the accuracy of GEBVs once the information had been gathered, with the genomic relationship matrix (GRM) playing a central role. When this accuracy must be known a priori, the theory of quantitative genetics gives clues to calculate the expectation of this GRM. This chapter makes a critical inventory of the methods developed to calculate these accuracies a posteriori and a priori. The most significant factors affecting this accuracy are described (size of the reference population, number of markers, linkage disequilibrium, heritability).

Estimation of breeding value and accuracy using pedigree and genotype of Hanwoo cows (Korean cattle)

The genetic improvement of Hanwoo is dependent on the estimated breeding value (EBV) of pedigree-based Korean proven bull's number, and the genetic evaluation for cows is difficult due to insufficient pedigree and test records. Genomic selection involves utilizing the individual's genotype to estimate the breeding value (BV) and is determined to be an appropriate evaluation method for cows who lack test information. This study used pedigree and genotype to estimate and analyse BV and accuracy of Hanwoo cows in the Gyeongnam area using pedigree best linear unbiased prediction (PBLUP) and genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP). The test group acquired pedigree and genotype of 919 Hanwoo cows in the Gyeongnam area. The traits used for analysis were carcass weight (CWT), eye muscle areas (EMA), backfat thickness (BFT) and marbling score (MS). PBLUP used Reference group 1 containing the pedigree and phenotype of 919 Hanwoo cows and 545,483 heads to construct the numeric relationship matrix and estimated the EBV and accuracy. GBLUP used Reference group 2 containing the genotype and phenotype of 919 Hanwoo cows and 17,226 heads to construct the genomic relationship matrix and estimated the genomic EBV (GEBV) and accuracy. In the order of CWT, EMA, BFT and MS, the accuracy of PBLUP was 0.488, 0.480, 0.482 and 0.486 while the accuracy of GBLUP was higher with 0.779, 0.758, 0.766 and 0.791. And for 104 cows without relationship coefficient on pedigree to the reference group, the accuracy as PBLUP was estimated to be 0, but for GBLUP, it was possible to estimate the accuracy for all individuals. If GBLUP is applied to cows raised in general farms, the genetic evaluation can be performed even on animals without pedigree and high-accuracy estimation, enabling selection of excellent cows. Accordingly, by securing the genetic diversity of cows, it is expected to increase the profitability of farms by decreasing the inbreeding rate and increasing efficiency of elite calf production.

Training Set Construction for Genomic Prediction in Auto-Tetraploids: An Example in Potato

Training set construction is an important prerequisite to Genomic Prediction (GP), and while this has been studied in diploids, polyploids have not received the same attention. Polyploidy is a common feature in many crop plants, like for example banana and blueberry, but also potato which is the third most important crop in the world in terms of food consumption, after rice and wheat. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of different training set construction methods using a publicly available diversity panel of tetraploid potatoes. Four methods of training set construction were compared: simple random sampling, stratified random sampling, genetic distance sampling and sampling based on the coefficient of determination (CDmean). For stratified random sampling, population structure analyses were carried out in order to define sub-populations, but since sub-populations accounted for only 16.6% of genetic variation, there were negligible differences between stratified and simple random sampling. For genetic distance sampling, four genetic distance measures were compared and though they performed similarly, Euclidean distance was the most consistent. In the majority of cases the CDmean method was the best sampling method, and compared to simple random sampling gave improvements of 4-14% in cross-validation scenarios, and 2-8% in scenarios with an independent test set, while genetic distance sampling gave improvements of 5.5-10.5% and 0.4-4.5%. No interaction was found between sampling method and the statistical model for the traits analyzed.

Genomic prediction and training set optimization in a structured Mediterranean oat population

The strong genetic structure observed in Mediterranean oats affects the predictive ability of genomic prediction as well as the performance of training set optimization methods. In this study, we investigated the efficiency of genomic prediction and training set optimization in a highly structured population of cultivars and landraces of cultivated oat (Avena sativa) from the Mediterranean basin, including white (subsp. sativa) and red (subsp. byzantina) oats, genotyped using genotype-by-sequencing markers and evaluated for agronomic traits in Southern Spain. For most traits, the predictive abilities were moderate to high with little differences between models, except for biomass for which Bayes-B showed a substantial gain compared to other models. The consistency between the structure of the training population and the population to be predicted was key to the predictive ability of genomic predictions. The predictive ability of inter-subspecies predictions was indeed much lower than that of intra-subspecies predictions for all traits. Regarding training set optimization, the linear mixed model optimization criteria (prediction error variance (PEVmean) and coefficient of determination (CDmean)) performed better than the heuristic approach "partitioning around medoids," even under high population structure. The superiority of CDmean and PEVmean could be explained by their ability to adapt the representation of each genetic group according to those represented in the population to be predicted. These results represent an important step towards the implementation of genomic prediction in oat breeding programs and address important issues faced by the genomic prediction community regarding population structure and training set optimization.

Genomic selection of parents and crosses beyond the native gene pool of a breeding program

Genomic selection has become a valuable tool for selecting cultivar candidates in many plant breeding programs. Genomic selection of elite parents and crossing combinations with germplasm developed outside a breeding program has, however, hardly been explored until now. The aim of this study was to assess the potential of this method for commonly ranking and selecting elite germplasm developed within and beyond a given breeding program. A winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) population consisting of 611 in-house and 87 externally developed lines was used to compare training population compositions and statistical models for genomically predicting baking quality in this framework. Augmenting training populations with lines from other breeding programs had a larger influence on the prediction ability than adding in-house generated lines when aiming to commonly rank both germplasm sets. Exploiting preexisting information of secondary correlated traits resulted likewise in more accurate predictions both in empirical analyses and simulations. Genotyping germplasm developed beyond a given breeding program is moreover a convenient way to clarify its relationships with a breeder's own germplasm because pedigree information is oftentimes not available for this purpose. Genomic predictions can thus support a more informed diversity management, especially when integrating simply to phenotype correlated traits to partly circumvent resource reallocations for a costly phenotyping of germplasm from other programs.

Genomic prediction of milk-production traits and somatic cell score using single-step genomic best linear unbiased predictor with random regression test-day model in Thai dairy cattle

Cow genotypes are expected to improve the accuracy of genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV) for young bulls in relatively small populations such as Thai Holstein-Friesian crossbred dairy cattle in Thailand. The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of cow genotypes on the predictive ability and individual accuracies of GEBV for young dairy bulls in Thailand. Test-day data included milk yield (n = 170,666), milk component traits (fat yield, protein yield, total solids yield, fat percentage, protein percentage, and total solids percentage; n = 160,526), and somatic cell score (n = 82,378) from 23,201, 82,378, and 13,737 (for milk yield, milk component traits, and SCS, respectively) cows calving between 1993 and 2017, respectively. Pedigree information included 51,128; 48,834; and 32,743 animals for milk yield, milk component traits, and somatic cell score, respectively. Additionally, 876, 868, and 632 pedigreed animals (for milk yield, milk component traits, and SCS, respectively) were genotyped (152 bulls and 724 cows), respectively, using Illumina Bovine SNP50 BeadChip. We cut off the data in the last 6 yr, and the validation animals were defined as genotyped bulls with no daughters in the truncated set. We calculated GEBV using a single-step random regression test-day model (SS-RR-TDM), in comparison with estimated breed value (EBV) based on the pedigree-based model used as the official method in Thailand (RR-TDM). Individual accuracies of GEBV were obtained by inverting the coefficient matrix of the mixed model equations, whereas validation accuracies were measured by the Pearson correlation between deregressed EBV from the full data set and (G)EBV predicted with the reduced data set. When only bull genotypes were used, on average, SS-RR-TDM increased individual accuracies by 0.22 and validation accuracies by 0.07, compared with RR-TDM. With cow genotypes, the additional increase was 0.02 for individual accuracies and 0.06 for validation accuracies. The inflation of GEBV tended to be reduced using cow genotypes. Genomic evaluation by SS-RR-TDM is feasible to select young bulls for the longitudinal traits in Thai dairy cattle, and the accuracy of selection is expected to be increased with more genotypes. Genomic selection using the SS-RR-TDM should be implemented in the routine genetic evaluation of the Thai dairy cattle population. The genetic evaluation should consider including genotypes of both sires and cows.

Training Set Optimization for Sparse Phenotyping in Genomic Selection: A Conceptual Overview

Genomic selection (GS) is becoming an essential tool in breeding programs due to its role in increasing genetic gain per unit time. The design of the training set (TRS) in GS is one of the key steps in the implementation of GS in plant and animal breeding programs mainly because (i) TRS optimization is critical for the efficiency and effectiveness of GS, (ii) breeders test genotypes in multi-year and multi-location trials to select the best-performing ones. In this framework, TRS optimization can help to decrease the number of genotypes to be tested and, therefore, reduce phenotyping cost and time, and (iii) we can obtain better prediction accuracies from optimally selected TRS than an arbitrary TRS. Here, we concentrate the efforts on reviewing the lessons learned from TRS optimization studies and their impact on crop breeding and discuss important features for the success of TRS optimization under different scenarios. In this article, we review the lessons learned from training population optimization in plants and the major challenges associated with the optimization of GS including population size, the relationship between training and test set (TS), update of TRS, and the use of different packages and algorithms for TRS implementation in GS. Finally, we describe general guidelines to improving the rate of genetic improvement by maximizing the use of the TRS optimization in the GS framework.

Optimization of Genomic Selection to Improve Disease Resistance in Two Marine Fishes, the European Sea Bass (Dicentrarchus labrax) and the Gilthead Sea Bream (Sparus aurata)

Disease outbreaks are a major threat to the aquaculture industry, and can be controlled by selective breeding. With the development of high-throughput genotyping technologies, genomic selection may become accessible even in minor species. Training population size and marker density are among the main drivers of the prediction accuracy, which both have a high impact on the cost of genomic selection. In this study, we assessed the impact of training population size as well as marker density on the prediction accuracy of disease resistance traits in European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax) and gilthead sea bream (Sparus aurata). We performed a challenge to nervous necrosis virus (NNV) in two sea bass cohorts, a challenge to Vibrio harveyi in one sea bass cohort and a challenge to Photobacterium damselae subsp. piscicida in one sea bream cohort. Challenged individuals were genotyped on 57K-60K SNP chips. Markers were sampled to design virtual SNP chips of 1K, 3K, 6K, and 10K markers. Similarly, challenged individuals were randomly sampled to vary training population size from 50 to 800 individuals. The accuracy of genomic-based (GBLUP model) and pedigree-based estimated breeding values (EBV) (PBLUP model) was computed for each training population size using Monte-Carlo cross-validation. Genomic-based breeding values were also computed using the virtual chips to study the effect of marker density. For resistance to Viral Nervous Necrosis (VNN), as one major QTL was detected, the opportunity of marker-assisted selection was investigated by adding a QTL effect in both genomic and pedigree prediction models. As training population size increased, accuracy increased to reach values in range of 0.51-0.65 for full density chips. The accuracy could still increase with more individuals in the training population as the accuracy plateau was not reached. When using only the 6K density chip, accuracy reached at least 90% of that obtained with the full density chip. Adding the QTL effect increased the accuracy of the PBLUP model to values higher than the GBLUP model without the QTL effect. This work sets a framework for the practical implementation of genomic selection to improve the resistance to major diseases in European sea bass and gilthead sea bream.

Predicting the accuracy of genomic predictions

Background

Mathematical models are needed for the design of breeding programs using genomic prediction. While deterministic models for selection on pedigree-based estimates of breeding values (PEBV) are available, these have not been fully developed for genomic selection, with a key missing component being the accuracy of genomic EBV (GEBV) of selection candidates. Here, a deterministic method was developed to predict this accuracy within a closed breeding population based on the accuracy of GEBV and PEBV in the reference population and the distance of selection candidates from their closest ancestors in the reference population.

Methods

The accuracy of GEBV was modeled as a combination of the accuracy of PEBV and of EBV based on genomic relationships deviated from pedigree (DEBV). Loss of the accuracy of DEBV from the reference to the target population was modeled based on the effective number of independent chromosome segments in the reference population (M_e). Measures of M_e derived from the inverse of the variance of relationships and from the accuracies of GEBV and PEBV in the reference population, derived using either a Fisher information or a selection index approach, were compared by simulation.

Results

Using simulation, both the Fisher and the selection index approach correctly predicted accuracy in the target population over time, both with and without selection. The index approach, however, resulted in estimates of M_e that were less affected by heritability, reference size, and selection, and which are, therefore, more appropriate as a population parameter. The variance of relationships underpredicted M_e and was greatly affected by selection. A leave-one-out cross-validation approach was proposed to estimate required accuracies of EBV in the reference population. Aspects of the methods were validated using real data.

Conclusions

A deterministic method was developed to predict the accuracy of GEBV in selection candidates in a closed breeding population. The population parameter M_e that is required for these predictions can be derived from an available reference data set, and applied to other reference data sets and traits for that population. This method can be used to evaluate the benefit of genomic prediction and to optimize genomic selection breeding programs.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12711-021-00647-w.

Perspectives on Applications of Hierarchical Gene-To-Phenotype (G2P) Maps to Capture Non-stationary Effects of Alleles in Genomic Prediction

Genomic prediction of complex traits across environments, breeding cycles, and populations remains a challenge for plant breeding. A potential explanation for this is that underlying non-additive genetic (GxG) and genotype-by-environment (GxE) interactions generate allele substitution effects that are non-stationary across different contexts. Such non-stationary effects of alleles are either ignored or assumed to be implicitly captured by most gene-to-phenotype (G2P) maps used in genomic prediction. The implicit capture of non-stationary effects of alleles requires the G2P map to be re-estimated across different contexts. We discuss the development and application of hierarchical G2P maps that explicitly capture non-stationary effects of alleles and have successfully increased short-term prediction accuracy in plant breeding. These hierarchical G2P maps achieve increases in prediction accuracy by allowing intermediate processes such as other traits and environmental factors and their interactions to contribute to complex trait variation. However, long-term prediction remains a challenge. The plant breeding community should undertake complementary simulation and empirical experiments to interrogate various hierarchical G2P maps that connect GxG and GxE interactions simultaneously. The existing genetic correlation framework can be used to assess the magnitude of non-stationary effects of alleles and the predictive ability of these hierarchical G2P maps in long-term, multi-context genomic predictions of complex traits in plant breeding.