1918 Influenza: the mother of all pandemics

Statins for the prevention of cardiovascular events associated with avian influenza: the COVID-19 pandemic as a reference

There is growing concern that the severe respiratory disease in birds (avian influenza or 'bird flu') caused by the H5N1 influenza virus, might potentially spread more widely to humans and cause a pandemic. Here we discuss clinical issues related to human infections by the highly pathogenic H5N1 subtype of the avian influenza A virus and make a clinical comparison with recent information obtained from studies of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Firstly, we consider the potential increase in cardiovascular events in humans infected with the H5N1 virus. Like SARS-CoV-2 infection, H5N1 infection may result in endothelial dysfunction and the associated procoagulant and prothrombotic state, and via this mechanism, the infection can potentially increase cardiovascular morbidity, especially in vulnerable individuals with pre-existing cardiovascular disease. Secondly, we discuss the potential beneficial role of statin use, both in the prophylaxis and the treatment of individuals with influenza A(H5N1), as was found favorable for the treatment of COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Broad-spectrum RNA antiviral inspired by ISG15 -/- deficiency

Type I interferons (IFN-I) are cytokines with potent antiviral and inflammatory capacities. IFN-I signaling drives the expression of hundreds of IFN-I stimulated genes (ISGs), whose aggregate function results in the control of viral infection. A few of these ISGs are tasked with negatively regulating the IFN-I response to prevent overt inflammation. ISG15 is a negative regulator whose absence leads to persistent, low-grade elevation of ISG expression and concurrent, self-resolving mild autoinflammation. The limited breadth and low-grade persistence of ISGs expressed in ISG15 deficiency are sufficient to confer broad-spectrum antiviral resistance. Inspired by ISG15 deficiency, we have identified a nominal collection of 10 ISGs that recapitulate the broad antiviral potential of the IFN-I system. The expression of the 10 ISG collection in an IFN-I non-responsive cell line increased cellular resistance to Zika, Vesicular Stomatitis, Influenza A (IAV), and SARS-CoV-2 viruses. A deliverable prophylactic formulation of this syndicate of 10 ISGs significantly inhibited IAV PR8 replication in vivo in mice and protected hamsters against a lethal SARS-CoV-2 challenge, suggesting its potential as a broad-spectrum antiviral against many current and future emerging viral pathogens.

One-Sentence Summary

Human inborn error of immunity-guided discovery and development of a broad-spectrum RNA antiviral therapy.

Anti-idiotype isolation of a broad and potent influenza A virus-neutralizing human antibody

The VH6-1 class of antibodies includes some of the broadest and most potent antibodies that neutralize influenza A virus. Here, we elicit and isolate anti-idiotype antibodies against germline versions of VH6-1 antibodies, use these to sort human leukocytes, and isolate a new VH6-1-class member, antibody L5A7, which potently neutralized diverse group 1 and group 2 influenza A strains. While its heavy chain derived from the canonical IGHV6-1 heavy chain gene used by the class, L5A7 utilized a light chain gene, IGKV1-9, which had not been previously observed in other VH6-1-class antibodies. The cryo-EM structure of L5A7 in complex with Indonesia 2005 hemagglutinin revealed a nearly identical binding mode to other VH6-1-class members. The structure of L5A7 bound to the isolating anti-idiotype antibody, 28H6E11, revealed a shared surface for binding anti-idiotype and hemagglutinin that included two critical L5A7 regions: an FG motif in the third heavy chain-complementary determining region (CDR H3) and the CDR L1 loop. Surprisingly, the chemistries of L5A7 interactions with hemagglutinin and with anti-idiotype were substantially different. Overall, we demonstrate anti-idiotype-based isolation of a broad and potent influenza A virus-neutralizing antibody, revealing that anti-idiotypic selection of antibodies can involve features other than chemical mimicry of the target antigen.

Towards classification and comprehensive analysis of AI-based COVID-19 diagnostic techniques: A survey

The unpredictable pandemic came to light at the end of December 2019, known as the novel coronavirus, also termed COVID-19, identified by the World Health Organization (WHO). The virus first originated in Wuhan (China) and rapidly affected most of the world's population. This outbreak's impact is experienced worldwide because it causes high mortality risk, many cases, and economic falls. Around the globe, the total number of cases and deaths reported till November 12, 2022, were >600 million and 6.6 million, respectively. During the period of COVID-19, several diverse diagnostic techniques have been proposed. This work presents a systematic review of COVID-19 diagnostic techniques in response to such acts. Initially, these techniques are classified into different categories based on their working principle and detection modalities, i.e. chest X-ray imaging, cough sound or respiratory patterns, RT-PCR, antigen testing, and antibody testing. After that, a comparative analysis is performed to evaluate these techniques' efficacy which may help to determine an optimum solution for a particular scenario. The findings of the proposed work show that Artificial Intelligence plays a vital role in developing COVID-19 diagnostic techniques which support the healthcare system. The related work can be a footprint for all the researchers, available under a single umbrella. Additionally, all the techniques are long-lasting and can be used for future pandemics.

Two complete 1918 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic virus genomes characterized by next-generation sequencing using RNA isolated from formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded autopsy lung tissue samples along with evidence of secondary bacterial co-infection

The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most devastating respiratory pandemic in modern human history, with 50-100 million deaths worldwide. Here, we characterized the complete genomes of influenza A virus (IAV) from two fatal cases during the fall wave of 1918 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in the United States, one from Walter Reed Army Hospital in Washington, DC, and the other from Camp Jackson, SC. The two complete IAV genomes were obtained by combining Illumina deep sequencing data from both total RNA and influenza viral genome-enriched libraries along with Sanger sequencing data from PCR across the sequencing gaps. This study confirms the previously reported 1918 IAV genomes and increases the total number of available complete or near-complete influenza viral genomes of the 1918 pandemic from four to six. Sequence comparisons among them confirm that the genomes of the 1918 pandemic virus were highly conserved during the main wave of the pandemic with geographic separation in North America and Europe. Metagenomic analyses revealed bacterial co-infections in both cases. Interestingly, in the Washington, DC, case, evidence is presented of the first reported Rhodococcus-influenza virus co-infection.

IMPORTANCE

This study applied modern molecular biotechnology and high-throughput sequencing to formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded autopsy lung samples from two fatal cases during the fall wave of the 1918 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in the United States. Complete influenza genomes were obtained from both cases, which increases the total number of available complete or near-complete influenza genomes of the 1918 pandemic virus from four to six. Sequence analysis confirms that the 1918 pandemic virus was highly conserved during the main wave of the pandemic with geographic separation in North America and Europe. Metagenomic analyses revealed bacterial co-infections in both cases, including the first reported evidence of Rhodococcus-influenza co-infection. Overall, this study offers a detailed view at the molecular level of the very limited samples from the most devastating influenza pandemic in modern human history.

COVID-19 pandemic waves: Identification and interpretation of global data

The mention of the COVID-19 waves is as prevalent as the pandemic itself. Identifying the beginning and end of the wave is critical to evaluating the impact of various COVID-19 variants and the different pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical (including economic, health and social, etc.) interventions. We demonstrate a scientifically robust method to identify COVID-19 waves and the breaking points at which they begin and end from January 2020 to June 2021. Employing the Break Least Square method, we determine the significance of COVID-19 waves for global-, regional-, and country-level data. The results show that the method works efficiently in detecting different breaking points. Identifying these breaking points is critical for evaluating the impact of the economic, health, social and other welfare interventions implemented during the pandemic crisis. Employing our method with high frequency data effectively determines the start and end points of the COVID-19 wave(s). Identifying waves at the country level is more relevant than at the global or regional levels. Our research results evidenced that the COVID-19 wave takes about 48 days on average to subside once it begins, irrespective of the circumstances.

Reduction of acute respiratory infections in day-care by non-pharmaceutical interventions: a narrative review

Objective

Children who start in day-care have 2-4 times as many respiratory infections compared to children who are cared for at home, and day-care staff are among the employees with the highest absenteeism. The extensive new knowledge that has been generated in the COVID-19 era should be used in the prevention measures we prioritize. The purpose of this narrative review is to answer the questions: Which respiratory viruses are the most significant in day-care centers and similar indoor environments? What do we know about the transmission route of these viruses? What evidence is there for the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical prevention measures?

Design

Literature searches with different terms related to respiratory infections in humans, mitigation strategies, viral transmission mechanisms, and with special focus on day-care, kindergarten or child nurseries, were conducted in PubMed database and Web of Science. Searches with each of the main viruses in combination with transmission, infectivity, and infectious spread were conducted separately supplemented through the references of articles that were retrieved.

Results

Five viruses were found to be responsible for ≈95% of respiratory infections: rhinovirus, (RV), influenza virus (IV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), coronavirus (CoV), and adenovirus (AdV). Novel research, emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic, suggests that most respiratory viruses are primarily transmitted in an airborne manner carried by aerosols (microdroplets).

Conclusion

Since airborne transmission is dominant for the most common respiratory viruses, the most important preventive measures consist of better indoor air quality that reduces viral concentrations and viability by appropriate ventilation strategies. Furthermore, control of the relative humidity and temperature, which ensures optimal respiratory functionality and, together with low resident density (or mask use) and increased time outdoors, can reduce the occurrence of respiratory infections.

Ethical dilemma arises from optimizing interventions for epidemics in heterogeneous populations

Interventions to mitigate the spread of infectious diseases, while succeeding in their goal, have economic and social costs associated with them. These limit the duration and intensity of the interventions. We study a class of interventions which reduce the reproduction number and find the optimal strength of the intervention which minimizes the final epidemic size for an immunity inducing infection. The intervention works by eliminating the overshoot part of an epidemic, and avoids a second wave of infections. We extend the framework by considering a heterogeneous population and find that the optimal intervention can pose an ethical dilemma for decision and policymakers. This ethical dilemma is shown to be analogous to the trolley problem. We apply this optimization strategy to real-world contact data and case fatality rates from three pandemics to underline the importance of this ethical dilemma in real-world scenarios.

The potential of Ethiopian medicinal plants to treat emergent viral diseases

Ethiopians have deep-rooted traditions of using plants to treat ailments affecting humans and domesticated animals. Approximately 80% of the population continues to rely on traditional medicine, including for the prevention and treatment of viral diseases. Many antiviral plants are available to and widely used by communities in areas where access to conventional healthcare systems is limited. In some cases, pharmacological studies also confirm the potent antiviral properties of Ethiopian plants. Building on traditional knowledge of medicinal plants and testing their antiviral properties may help to expand options to address the global pandemic of COVID-19 including its recently isolated virulent variants and prepare for similar outbreaks in the future. Here, we provide an ethnobotanical and pharmacological inventory of Ethiopian medicinal plants that might contribute to the prevention and treatment of viral diseases. We identified 387 species, about 6% of Ethiopia's known flora, for which records of use by local communities and traditional herbalists have been documented for the treatment of viral diseases. We provide a framework for further investigation and development of this vital resource much anticipated to help combat emergent viral diseases along with existing ones in Ethiopia and elsewhere.

Prevalence and Trajectories of Post-COVID-19 Neurological Manifestations: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to evaluate the prevalence of thirteen neurological manifestations in people affected by COVID-19 during the acute phase and at 3, 6, 9 and 12-month follow-up time points.

METHODS

The study protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42022325505). MEDLINE (PubMed), Embase, and the Cochrane Library were used as information sources. Eligible studies included original articles of cohort studies, case-control studies, cross-sectional studies, and case series with ≥5 subjects that reported the prevalence and type of neurological manifestations, with a minimum follow-up of 3 months after the acute phase of COVID-19 disease. Two independent reviewers screened studies from January 1, 2020, to June 16, 2022. The following manifestations were assessed: neuromuscular disorders, encephalopathy/altered mental status/delirium, movement disorders, dysautonomia, cerebrovascular disorders, cognitive impairment/dementia, sleep disorders, seizures, syncope/transient loss of consciousness, fatigue, gait disturbances, anosmia/hyposmia, and headache. The pooled prevalence and their 95% confidence intervals were calculated at the six pre-specified times.

RESULTS

126 of 6,565 screened studies fulfilled the eligibility criteria, accounting for 1,542,300 subjects with COVID-19 disease. Of these, four studies only reported data on neurological conditions other than the 13 selected. The neurological disorders with the highest pooled prevalence estimates (per 100 subjects) during the acute phase of COVID-19 were anosmia/hyposmia, fatigue, headache, encephalopathy, cognitive impairment, and cerebrovascular disease. At 3-month follow-up, the pooled prevalence of fatigue, cognitive impairment, and sleep disorders was still 20% and higher. At six- and 9-month follow-up, there was a tendency for fatigue, cognitive impairment, sleep disorders, anosmia/hyposmia, and headache to further increase in prevalence. At 12-month follow-up, prevalence estimates decreased but remained high for some disorders, such as fatigue and anosmia/hyposmia. Other neurological disorders had a more fluctuating occurrence.

DISCUSSION

Neurological manifestations were prevalent during the acute phase of COVID-19 and over the 1-year follow-up period, with the highest overall prevalence estimates for fatigue, cognitive impairment, sleep disorders, anosmia/hyposmia, and headache. There was a downward trend over time, suggesting that neurological manifestations in the early post-COVID-19 phase may be long-lasting but not permanent. However, especially for the 12-month follow-up time point, more robust data are needed to confirm this trend.

Comparative evolution of influenza A virus H1 and H3 head and stalk domains across host species

IMPORTANCE

For decades, researchers have studied the rapid evolution of influenza A viruses for vaccine design and as a useful model system for the study of host/parasite evolution. By performing an exhaustive analysis of hemagglutinin protein (HA) sequences from 49 lineages independently evolving in birds, swine, canines, equines, and humans over the last century, our work uncovers surprising features of HA evolution. In particular, the canine H3 stalk, unlike human H3 and H1 stalk domains, is not evolving slowly, suggesting that evolution in the stalk domain is not universally constrained across all host species. Therefore, a broader multi-host perspective on HA evolution may be useful during the evaluation and design of stalk-targeted vaccine candidates.

Antiviral options and therapeutics against influenza: history, latest developments and future prospects

Drugs and chemotherapeutics have helped to manage devastating impacts of infectious diseases since the concept of 'magic bullet'. The World Health Organization estimates about 650,000 deaths due to respiratory diseases linked to seasonal influenza each year. Pandemic influenza, on the other hand, is the most feared health disaster and probably would have greater and immediate impact on humanity than climate change. While countermeasures, biosecurity and vaccination remain the most effective preventive strategies against this highly infectious and communicable disease, antivirals are nonetheless essential to mitigate clinical manifestations following infection and to reduce devastating complications and mortality. Continuous emergence of the novel strains of rapidly evolving influenza viruses, some of which are intractable, require new approaches towards influenza chemotherapeutics including optimization of existing anti-infectives and search for novel therapies. Effective management of influenza infections depend on the safety and efficacy of selected anti-infective in-vitro studies and their clinical applications. The outcomes of therapies are also dependent on understanding diversity in patient groups, co-morbidities, co-infections and combination therapies. In this extensive review, we have discussed the challenges of influenza epidemics and pandemics and discoursed the options for anti-viral chemotherapies for effective management of influenza virus infections.

Distinguishing Swine Flu (H1N1) from COVID-19: Clinical, Virological, and Immunological Perspectives

This article provides an in-depth examination on the differences between the influenza A strain, H1N1 (also called Swine Flu) and Covid-19 focusing on the immune response and clinical symptoms. Flu symptoms due to influenza A strain, H1N1, were initially discovered in 2009. This variant of influenza A is believed to have emerged through reassortment, a process where the resulting virus inherits gene segments from each of its parental viruses. This reassortment event has resulted in a variant with altered characteristics, potentially affecting the level of immunity in humans. The symptoms of this strain typically manifest 1-4 days after exposure and include fever, cough, sore throat, runny/stuffy nose, body aches, fatigue, and gastrointestinal symptoms such as diarrhea. The transmission dynamics of this new variant, including human-to-human transmission, are still under investigation by health authorities. Individuals with weakened immune systems are generally more susceptible to severe illness. Risk factors associated with swine flu can include older adults, young children, pregnant women, and individuals with obesity. Historical variants of swine flu, such as the 2015 variant in India, have been associated with significant case numbers and deaths, often due to respiratory failure. Since the epidemic of Covid-19 due to SARS-CoV2 in early 2020, several symptoms of COVID-19 and swine flu overlap. In this article, we critically reviewed the differences and similarities in the immune response and clinical symptoms due to H1N1 virus and SARS-CoV2 in human.

Influenza A virus replication has a stronger dependency on Raf/MEK/ERK signaling pathway activity than SARS-CoV-2

The recent COVID-19 pandemic again highlighted the urgent need for broad-spectrum antivirals, both for therapeutic use in acute viral infection and for pandemic preparedness in general. The targeting of host cell factors hijacked by viruses during their replication cycle presents one possible strategy for development of broad-spectrum antivirals. By inhibiting the Raf/MEK/ERK signaling pathway, a central kinase cascade of eukaryotic cells, which is being exploited by numerous viruses of different virus phyla, the small-molecule MEK inhibitor zapnometinib has the potential to address this need. We here performed a side-by-side comparison of the antiviral efficacy of zapnometinib against IAV and SARS-CoV-2 to determine the concentration leading to 50% of its effect on the virus (EC50) and the concentration leading to 50% reduction of ERK phosphorylation (IC50) in a comparable manner, using the same experimental conditions. Our results show that the EC50 value and IC50 value of zapnometinib are indeed lower for IAV compared to SARS-CoV-2 using one representative strain for each. The results suggest that IAV's replication has a stronger dependency on an active Raf/MEK/ERK pathway and, thus, that IAV is more susceptible to treatment with zapnometinib than SARS-CoV-2. With zapnometinib's favorable outcome in a recent phase II clinical trial in hospitalized COVID-19 patients, the present results are even more promising for an upcoming phase II clinical trial in severe influenza virus infection.

Modelling lifespan reduction in an exogenous damage model of generic disease

We model the effects of disease and other exogenous damage during human aging. Even when the exogenous damage is repaired at the end of acute disease, propagated secondary damage remains. We consider both short-term mortality effects due to (acute) exogenous damage and long-term mortality effects due to propagated damage within the context of a generic network model (GNM) of individual aging that simulates a U.S. population. Across a wide range of disease durations and severities we find that while excess short-term mortality is highest for the oldest individuals, the long-term years of life lost are highest for the youngest individuals. These appear to be universal effects of human disease. We support this conclusion with a phenomenological model coupling damage and mortality. Our results are consistent with previous lifetime mortality studies of atom bomb survivors and post-recovery health studies of COVID-19. We suggest that short-term health impact studies could complement lifetime mortality studies to better characterize the lifetime impacts of disease on both individuals and populations.

MicroRNA-9-1 Attenuates Influenza A Virus Replication via Targeting Tankyrase 1

An unstable influenza genome leads to the virus resistance to antiviral drugs that target viral proteins. Thus, identification of host factors essential for virus replication may pave the way to develop novel antiviral therapies. In this study, we investigated the roles of the poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase enzyme, tankyrase 1 (TNKS1), and the endogenous small noncoding RNA, miR-9-1, in influenza A virus (IAV) infection. Increased expression of TNKS1 was observed in IAV-infected human lung epithelial cells and mouse lungs. TNKS1 knockdown by RNA interference repressed influenza viral replication. A screen using TNKS1 3'-untranslation region (3'-UTR) reporter assays and predicted microRNAs identified that miR-9-1 targeted TNKS1. Overexpression of miR-9-1 reduced influenza viral replication in lung epithelial cells as measured by viral mRNA and protein levels as well as virus production. miR-9-1 induced type I interferon production and enhanced the phosphorylation of STAT1 in cell culture. The ectopic expression of miR-9-1 in the lungs of mice by using an adenoviral viral vector enhanced type I interferon response, inhibited viral replication, and reduced susceptibility to IAV infection. Our results indicate that miR-9-1 is an anti-influenza microRNA that targets TNKS1 and enhances cellular antiviral state.

Severe forms of influenza infections admitted in intensive care units: Analysis of mortality factors

Background

The severe forms of influenza infection requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission remain a medical challenge due to its high mortality. New H1N1 strains were hypothesized to increase mortality. The studies below represent a large series focusing on ICU-admitted influenza patients over the last decade with an emphasis on factors related to death.

Methods

A retrospective study of patients admitted in ICU for influenza infection over the 2010-2019 period in Réunion Island (a French overseas territory) was conducted. Demographic data, underlying conditions, and therapeutic management were recorded. A univariate analysis was performed to assess factors related to ICU mortality.

Results

Three hundred and fifty adult patients were analyzed. Overall mortality was 25.1%. Factors related to higher mortality were found to be patient age >65, cancer history, need for intubation, early intubation within 48 h after admission, invasive mechanical ventilation (MV), acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), vaso-support drugs, extracorporal oxygenation by membrane (ECMO), dialysis, bacterial coinfection, leucopenia, anemia, and thrombopenia. History of asthma and oseltamivir therapy were correlated with a lower mortality. H1N1 did not impact mortality.

Conclusion

Patient's underlying conditions influence hospital admission and secondary ICU admission but were not found to impact ICU mortality except in patients age >65, history of cancer, and bacterial coinfections. Pulmonary involvement was often present, required MV, and often evolved toward ARDS. ICU mortality was strongly related to ARDS severity. We recommend rapid ICU admission of patients with influenza-related pneumonia, management of bacterial coinfection, and early administration of oseltamivir.

Epidemiological waves - Types, drivers and modulators in the COVID-19 pandemic

Introduction

A discussion of 'waves' of the COVID-19 epidemic in different countries is a part of the national conversation for many, but there is no hard and fast means of delineating these waves in the available data and their connection to waves in the sense of mathematical epidemiology is only tenuous.

Methods

We present an algorithm which processes a general time series to identify substantial, significant and sustained periods of increase in the value of the time series, which could reasonably be described as 'observed waves'. This provides an objective means of describing observed waves in time series. We use this method to synthesize evidence across different countries to study types, drivers and modulators of waves.

Results

The output of the algorithm as applied to epidemiological time series related to COVID-19 corresponds to visual intuition and expert opinion. Inspecting the results of individual countries shows how consecutive observed waves can differ greatly with respect to the case fatality ratio. Furthermore, in large countries, a more detailed analysis shows that consecutive observed waves have different geographical ranges. We also show how waves can be modulated by government interventions and find that early implementation of NPIs correlates with a reduced number of observed waves and reduced mortality burden in those waves.

Conclusion

It is possible to identify observed waves of disease by algorithmic methods and the results can be fruitfully used to analyse the progression of the epidemic.

COVID-19 Pandemic and Challenges Faced by Healthcare Professionals in India

Since the Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918, a pandemic of such magnitude as the COVID-19 pandemic was yet to be confronted. While the pandemic led to unforeseen challenges globally as well as at the country level, it also brought forth certain perennial issues. This editorial is an attempt to revisit some of the major challenges faced by healthcare professionals in India during the pandemic. Timely interventions by the government of India dealt with several challenges confronted by the healthcare sector. However, issues about working hours, mental health, safety, and security of healthcare professionals also need to be looked into in the future.

Intergenerational coresidence and the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States

This paper investigates the relation between intergenerational coresidence and mortality from Covid-19 in 2020. Using a cross-section of U.S. counties, we show that this association is positive, sizeable, significant, and robust to the inclusion of several demographic and socio-economic controls. Furthermore, using evidence from past, pre-pandemic years, we argue that this positive, sizeable and significant association is somewhat specific to the Covid-19 pandemic.

COVID-19 pandemic in long-term care: An international perspective for policy considerations

This paper identifies key factors rooted in the systemic failings of the long-term care sector amongst four high income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. The goal is to offer practice and policy solutions to prevent future tragedies. Based on data from Australia, Canada, Spain and the United States, the findings support evidence-based recommendations at macro, meso and micro levels of practice and policy intervention. Key macro recommendations include improving funding, transparency, accountability and health system integration; and promoting not-for-profit and government-run long-term care facilities. The meso recommendation involves moving from warehouses to “green houses.” The micro recommendations emphasize mandating recommended staffing levels and skill mix; providing infection prevention and control training; establishing well-being and mental health supports for residents and staff; building evidence-based practice cultures; ensuring ongoing education for staff and nursing students; and fully integrating care partners, such as families or friends, into the healthcare team. Enacting these recommendations will improve residents' safety and quality of life; families’ peace of mind; and staff retention and work satisfaction.

The persistence of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies after COVID-19: A one-year observation. Is a SARS-CoV-2 vaccination booster dose necessary?

Introduction

The aim of this study was to investigate the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) one year after contracting COVID-19.

Material and methods

The study included 38 patients - 34 men and 4 women - suffering from COVID-19 between March 15 and May 26, 2020. The median age in the group was 31 years, ranging from 22 to 67 years. The levels of neutralizing antibodies were measured at three time-points - baseline, 6 months, and 12 months. The primary endpoint was a post-infection positive result for NAbs (> 15 AU/ml; Liaison SARS-CoV-2 S1/S2 IgG quantitative test) 12 months after infection.

Results

The median level of NAbs after 12 months was 26.5 AU/ml. At the end of observation (12 months), 21 of the 38 patients had a NAb level of >15 AU/ml (positive). The median antibody half-life was 5.8 months.

Conclusions

A high percentage of the patients maintained positive levels of antibodies 6 and 12 months after COVID-19 infection. The dynamics of the antibody level decline suggests the need for booster vaccination at least once a year.

Surveillance and Phylogenetic Characterisation of Avian Influenza Viruses Isolated from Wild Waterfowl in Zambia in 2015, 2020, and 2021

In recent years, the southern African region has experienced repeated incursions of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs), with wild migratory birds being implicated in the spread. To understand the profile of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) circulating in Zambia, we surveyed wild waterfowl for AIVs and phylogenetically characterised the isolates detected in 2015, 2020, and 2021. A total of 2,851 faecal samples of wild waterfowl were collected from Lochinvar National Park in the Southern Province of Zambia. During the study period, 85 (3.0%) low pathogenicity AIVs belonging to various subtypes were isolated, with H2N9, H8N4, and H10N8 being reported for the first time in avian species in Africa. The majority of the isolates were detected from glossy ibis (order Pelecaniformes) making it the first report of AIV from these birds in Zambia. Phylogenetic analysis of all eight gene segments of the 30 full genomes obtained in this study revealed that all the isolates belonged to the Eurasian lineage with their closest relatives being viruses isolated from wild and/or domestic birds in Bangladesh, Belgium, Egypt, Georgia, Mongolia, the Netherlands, and South Africa. Additionally, the Zambian viruses were grouped into distinct clusters based on the year of isolation. While no notifiable AIVs of the H5 or H7 subtypes were detected in wild birds in Zambia, viral internal protein genes of some viruses were closely related to H7 low pathogenicity AIVs. This study shows that periodically, a considerable diversity of AIV subtypes are introduced into the Zambian ecosystem by wild migratory waterfowl. The findings highlight the importance of continuous surveillance and monitoring of AIVs in wild waterfowl, including birds traditionally not considered to be major AIV reservoirs, for a better understanding of the eco-epidemiology and evolutionary dynamics of AIVs in Africa.

The Staphylococcus aureus protein IsdA increases SARS CoV-2 replication by modulating JAK-STAT signaling

The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (CoV-2) pandemic has affected millions globally. A significant complication of CoV-2 infection is secondary bacterial co-infection, as seen in approximately 25% of severe cases. The most common organism isolated during co-infection is Staphylococcus aureus. Here, we describe the development of an in vitro co-infection model where both viral and bacterial replication kinetics may be examined. We demonstrate CoV-2 infection does not alter bacterial interactions with host epithelial cells. In contrast, S. aureus enhances CoV-2 replication by 10- to 15-fold. We identify this pro-viral activity is due to the S. aureus iron-regulated surface determinant A (IsdA) protein and demonstrate IsdA modifies host transcription. We find that IsdA alters Janus Kinase - Signal Transducer and Activator of Transcription (JAK-STAT) signaling, by affecting JAK2-STAT3 levels, ultimately leading to increased viral replication. These findings provide key insight into the molecular interactions between host cells, CoV-2 and S. aureus during co-infection.

The Legacy of the Pandemic Preparedness Regime: An Integrative Review

Objectives: The global response to COVID-19 inherited a long history of preparedness features pertaining to various threats, including bioterrorism, (re)-emerging infectious diseases, and pandemics. We describe the evolution of pandemic preparedness frameworks, before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: We conducted an integrative literature review of publicly available documents, including grey and scientific literature, on pandemic preparedness frameworks. We relied on social science literature as a main source and used search keywords: pandemic preparedness, H1N1, COVID-19, "whole-of-society"/"whole-of-community." Results: The H1N1 pandemic (2009-2010) tested pandemic preparedness frameworks. Lessons-learned reports concluded that the global H1N1 response were too strong and unnecessarily alarming. Such critiques, pandemic fatigue, and budgetary cuts post-2008 explain lack of preparedness for COVID-19. Critiques culminated in a shift towards a "whole-of-society" approach to health crises, although its uptake has not been ideal. Conclusion: Traditional preparedness regime limits arose again during the COVID-19 pandemic. The "whole-of-society" approach was not fully deployed in COVID-19 responses. A "whole-of-organizations" approach could be designed, ensuring that countries consider local organizations' potential to partake in containing infectious disease and counter undesirable side-effects of non-pharmaceutical measures.

Vulnerability and COVID-19 infection rates: A changing relationship during the first year of the pandemic

In the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, Spain was one of the worst-hit countries, although not all areas and social groups were affected equally. This study focuses on Malaga, a cosmopolitan tourist destination located on the southern Mediterranean coast that has the sixth largest population in Spain. Specifically, it examines the relationship between multidimensional vulnerability and COVID-19 infection rates across the city's census tracts for the period February 2020 to February 2021. The analysis uses high frequency (daily) data on the accumulated incidence of the disease at 14 days and shows that COVID-19 did not spread symmetrically across the census tracts of Malaga but had a greater impact on the most vulnerable neighbourhoods. However, the pattern of this relationship was not uniform in the period examined, with specific contextual factors driving the higher infection rates across time. Our findings show that pandemic containment regulations cannot overlook vulnerability considerations and universal restrictions to reduce the spread of disease should be supplemented by targeted regulations for specific areas.

Unequal excess mortality during the Spanish Flu pandemic in the Netherlands

A century after the Spanish Flu, the COVID-19 pandemic has brought renewed attention to socioeconomic and occupational differences in mortality in the earlier pandemic. The magnitude of these differences and the pathways between occupation and increased mortality remain unclear, however. In this paper, we explore the relation between occupational characteristics and excess mortality among men during the Spanish Flu pandemic in the Netherlands. By creating a new occupational coding for exposure to disease at work, we separate social status and occupational conditions for viral transmission. We use a new data set based on men's death certificates to calculate excess mortality rates by region, age group, and occupational group. Using OLS regression models, we estimate whether social position, regular interaction in the workplace, and working in an enclosed space affected excess mortality among men in the Netherlands in the autumn of 1918. We find some evidence that men with occupations that featured high levels of social contact had higher mortality in this period. Above all, however, we find a strong socioeconomic gradient to excess mortality among men during the Spanish Flu pandemic, even after accounting for exposure in the workplace.

Curcumin-Loaded Oil-Free Self-Assembled Micelles Inhibit the Influenza A Virus Activity and the Solidification of Curcumin-Loaded Micelles for Pharmaceutical Applications

Curcumin, a well-known natural lipophilic phenolic compound, plays a vital role in inhibiting the influenza infection. Currently, many kinds of formulations for the enhancement of a water dispersion of curcumin have been developed; however, the anti-influenza abilities of formulated curcumin have been much less investigated. In this study, the optimized self-assembled micelles of RH 40/Tween 80 loaded with curcumin (Cur-M) in an oil-free-based system were spherical with a hydrodynamic size at 13.55 nm ± 0.208 and polydispersity at 0.144 characterized by atomic force microscopy and dynamic light scattering, respectively. Additionally, Cur-M significantly increased the bioactivity/stability of curcumin and effectively inhibited the influenza A virus infection and its replication after viral entry, indicating the alteration of the inhibition mechanisms of curcumin against virus infection via RH 40/Tween 80 micelle formulation. Furthermore, a solid formulation (Cur-SM) of Cur-M was successfully developed by a one-pot physical adsorption method using a small amount of adsorbent and ~50% of curcumin/Cur-M that could be burst released from Cur-SM in 1 h, facilitating the fast-releasing applications. Ultimately, all of the results show that Cur-SM acts as a good nano-formulation of curcumin with improved solubility/dispersity in aqueous solutions and demonstrate new anti-influenza mechanisms of curcumin for pharmaceutical development.

Sars-Cov2 world pandemic recurrent waves controlled by variants evolution and vaccination campaign

While understanding the time evolution of Covid-19 pandemic is needed to plan economics and tune sanitary policies, a quantitative information of the recurrent epidemic waves is elusive. This work describes a statistical physics study of the subsequent waves in the epidemic spreading of Covid-19 and disclose the frequency components of the epidemic waves pattern over two years in United States, United Kingdom and Japan. These countries have been taken as representative cases of different containment policies such as "Mitigation" (USA and UK) and "Zero Covid" (Japan) policies. The supercritical phases in spreading have been identified by intervals with RIC-index > 0. We have used the wavelet transform of infection and fatality waves to get the spectral analysis showing a dominant component around 130 days. Data of the world dynamic clearly indicates also the crossover to a different phase due to the enforcement of vaccination campaign. In Japan and United Kingdom, we observed the emergence in the infection waves of a long period component (~ 170 days) during vaccination campaign. These results indicate slowing down of the epidemic spreading dynamics due to the vaccination campaign. Finally, we find an intrinsic difference between infection and fatality waves pointing to a non-trivial variation of the lethality due to different gene variants.

Sensitivity of influenza virus to ultraviolet irradiation

BACKGROUND

The measures implemented against the coronavirus pandemic also led to a sharp decline in influenza infections in the 2020/2021 flu season. In the meantime, however, the number of influenza infections has risen again; it is known from history that influenza viruses can also trigger severe pandemics. Therefore, we investigated the efficacy of ultraviolet radiation in the spectral range of 200-400 nm for inactivating influenza viruses.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The scientific literature was searched for published ultraviolet (UV) irradiation experiments with influenza viruses and the results were standardized by determining the lg-reduction dose. The results were then sorted and analyzed by virus type and wavelength as far as possible.

RESULTS

The scope of the published data sets was limited and revealed large variations with regard to the lg-reduction dose. Only for experiments with influenza viruses in liquid media in the UVC spectral range around 260 nm - the emission range of commonly-used mercury vapor lamps - was there sufficient data to compare virus types. No significant difference between the virus (sub-) types was observed. The lg-reduction dose in this spectral range is 1.75 mJ/cm² (median). It was also shown that influenza viruses are particularly sensitive in the far-UVC spectral range (200-230 nm).

CONCLUSION

UVC, including far-UVC, is suited for influenza virus inactivation as long as the viruses are in UVC-transparent materials. A large difference in the UV sensitivity of different influenza viruses from the last approx. 100 years could not be detected. Thus, it is reasonable to assume that future influenza viruses will also be similarly UV-sensitive or that UV can also inactivate new influenza viruses.

Narrative review on century of respiratory pandemics from Spanish flu to COVID-19 and impact of nanotechnology on COVID-19 diagnosis and immune system boosting

The rise of the highly lethal severe acute respiratory syndrome-2 (SARS-2) as corona virus 2019 (COVID-19) reminded us of the history of other pandemics that happened in the last century (Spanish flu) and stayed in the current century, which include Severe-Acute-Respiratory-Syndrome (SARS), Middle-East-Respiratory-Syndrome (MERS), Corona Virus 2019 (COVID-19). We review in this report the newest findings and data on the origin of pandemic respiratory viral diseases, reservoirs, and transmission modes. We analyzed viral adaption needed for host switch and determinants of pathogenicity, causative factors of pandemic viruses, and symptoms and clinical manifestations. After that, we concluded the host factors associated with pandemics morbidity and mortality (immune responses and immunopathology, ages, and effect of pandemics on pregnancy). Additionally, we focused on the burdens of COVID-19, non-pharmaceutical interventions (quarantine, mass gatherings, facemasks, and hygiene), and medical interventions (antiviral therapies and vaccines). Finally, we investigated the nanotechnology between COVID-19 analysis and immune system boosting (Nanoparticles (NPs), antimicrobial NPs as antivirals and immune cytokines). This review presents insights about using nanomaterials to treat COVID-19, improve the bioavailability of the abused drugs, diminish their toxicity, and improve their performance.

CRISPR/Cas13a combined with hybridization chain reaction for visual detection of influenza A (H1N1) virus

This study provides proof of concept of a colorimetric biosensor for influenza H1N1 virus assay based on the CRISPR/Cas13a system and hybridization chain reaction (HCR). Target RNA of influenza H1N1 virus activated the trans-cleavage activity of Cas13a, which cleaved the special RNA sequence (-UUU-) of the probe, further initiating HCR to copiously generate G-rich DNA. Abundant G-quadruplex/hemin was formed in the presence of hemin, thus catalyzing a colorimetric reaction. The colorimetric biosensor exhibited a linear relationship from 10 pM to 100 nM. The detection limit was 0.152 pM. The biosensor specificity was excellent. This new and sensitive detection method for influenza virus is a promising rapid influenza diagnostic test.

Detection of multiple waves for COVID-19 and its optimal control through media awareness and vaccination: study based on some Indian states

COVID-19 is a highly infectious disease, and in very recent times, it has shown a massive impact throughout the globe. Several countries faced the COVID-19 infection waves multiple times. These later waves are more aggressive than the first wave and drastically impact social and economic factors. We developed a mechanistic model with imperfect lockdown effect, reinfection, transmission variability between symptomatic & asymptomatic, and media awareness to focus on the early detection of multiple waves and their control measures. Using daily COVID-19 cases data from six states of India, we estimated several important model parameters. Moreover, we estimated the home quarantine, community, and basic reproduction numbers. We developed an algorithm to carry out global sensitivity analysis (Sobol) of the parameters that influence the number of COVID-19 waves ( W C ) and the average number of COVID-19 cases in a wave ( A W ). We have identified some critical controlling parameters that mainly influenced W C and A W . Our study also revealed the best COVID-19 control strategy/strategies among vaccination, media awareness, and their combination using an optimal cost-effective study. The detailed analysis suggests that the severity of asymptomatic transmission is around 10% to 29% of that of symptomatic transmission in all six locations. About 1% to 4% of the total population under lockdown may contribute to new COVID-19 infection in all six locations. Optimal cost-effective analysis based on interventions, namely only vaccination (VA), only media awareness (ME), and a combination of vaccination & media (VA+ME), are projected for the period March 14, 2020, to August 31, 2021, for all the six locations. We have found that a large percentage of the population (26% to 45%) must be vaccinated from February 13 to August 31, 2021, to avert an optimal number of COVID-19 cases in these six locations.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11071-022-07887-5.

COVID-19 turbulence and positive shifts in online purchasing by consumers: modeling the enablers using ISM- MICMAC analysis

Purpose

Suppliers and marketers have started planning toward postpandemic scenarios where logistics and retail will happen in a new way with the help of technological advances. This shift means new challenges for manufacturers, suppliers and retailers, and there is a need for strategic sourcing decisions for a robust supply chain system, logistics and on-time delivery system, as consumers have shown a positive change in online buying behavior. Furthermore, with digital transformation, customers are expected to not return to traditional buying. Hence, it becomes essential to identify the factors acting as enablers of online purchase behavior for sustainable digital business. This study aims to analyze the positive shifts in online purchasing by consumers, identify and model the enablers of positive transformations in online purchasing by consumers.

Design/methodology/approach

The interpretative structural modeling (ISM) technique is used to draw the interrelationships among the variables and their impact on online buying. A context-oriented relationship among the factors has been set up through the expert opinion technique. A total of 40 specialists have been approached for this. ISM with Matrice d’impacts croisés multiplication appliquée á un classment (MICMAC) analysis was used to prioritize these drivers, identify the most critical factors and establish a driver-dependence relationship among these drivers.

Findings

Several significant categories of enablers like health, trust, convenience, work from home, referral buying, panic purchase and overstocking possess a strong influence on the shift to online due to the pandemic. The results will help the policymakers, suppliers, retailers, managers and practitioners with insights to plan, prepare for challenges and make decisions toward preparation and shifting to the emergent digital world. In addition, the study provides academicians scope for further research in the related area.

Research limitations/implications

Consumer behavior significantly impacts retail and supply chain business, as it is an interface with the customer and links between a manufacturer and a customer. This study provides an insight into the shift in purchase behavior which can help suppliers in this transition phase to be better prepared for tomorrow to achieve sustainable competitive advantage.

Originality/value

This study assists practitioners and researchers in understanding the interrelationships among the factors using ISM-MICMAC analysis in a realistic way rather than daydreaming with overambitious goals.

Emerging and Re-Emerging Viral Infections: An Indian Perspective

Emerging and re-emerging viral infections pose a constant threat, especially in healthcare settings. Viral infections can be thought of as an ecological system, like a forest or a pond, with different species competing for resources. Pandemics tend to occur when there is a disruption to this ecosystem, such as introducing a strain of virus into humans or animals that they have no immunity against. Around 60% of human infectious diseases and 75% of emerging infections are zoonotic, with two-thirds originating in wildlife. There is an ongoing risk of viral diseases as the human population continues to grow and the rate of urbanization increases. The emergence and re-emergence of viral diseases are influenced by a variety of virologic and environmental factors. These factors can be roughly categorized as affecting humans, the environment and/or ecology, and viruses. The spread of zoonotic diseases among humans can be prevented by reducing the transmission risk associated with wildlife and exotic pets through education, legislation, and behavioral change programs that target individuals at risk for exposure.

Public health ethics: critiques of the "new normal"

The global response to the recent coronavirus pandemic has revealed an ethical crisis in public health. This article analyses key pandemic public health policies in light of widely accepted ethical principles: the need for evidence, the least restrictive/harmful alternative, proportionality, equity, reciprocity, due legal process, and transparency. Many policies would be considered unacceptable according to pre-pandemic norms of public health ethics. There are thus significant opportunities to develop more ethical responses to future pandemics. This paper serves as the introduction to this Special Issue of Monash Bioethics Review and provides background for the other articles in this collection.

Usage of Compartmental Models in Predicting COVID-19 Outbreaks

Accurately predicting the spread of the SARS-CoV-2, the cause of the COVID-19 pandemic, is of great value for global regulatory authorities to overcome a number of challenges including medication shortage, outcome of vaccination, and control strategies planning. Modeling methods that are used to simulate and predict the spread of COVID-19 include compartmental model, structured metapopulations, agent-based networks, deep learning, and complex network, with compartmental modeling as one of the most widely used methods. Compartmental model has two noteworthy features, a flexible framework that allows users to easily customize the model structure and its high adaptivity that allows well-matured approaches (e.g., Bayesian inference and mixed-effects modeling) to improve parameter estimation. We retrospectively evaluated the prediction performances of the compartmental models on the CDC COVID-19 Mathematical Modeling webpage based on data collected between August 2020 and February 2021, and subsequently discussed in detail their corresponding model enhancement. Finally, we presented examples using the compartmental models to assist policymaking. By evaluating all models in parallel, we systemically evaluated the performance and evolution of using compartmental models for COVID-19 pandemic prediction. In summary, as a 100-year-old epidemic approach, the compartmental model presents a powerful tool that is extremely adaptive and can be readily customized and implemented to address new data or emerging needs during a pandemic.

Emerging Infectious Diseases and One Health: Implication for Public Health

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are defined as diseases that are newly identified, newly introduced, or newly evolved; or diseases that have recently and rapidly changed in incidence or expanded geographic, host, or vector range agents; or previous infections that acquire new virulence factors; or infections that spread to unaffected regions [...].

Periodic recurrent waves of Covid-19 epidemics and vaccination campaign

While understanding of periodic recurrent waves of Covid-19 epidemics would aid to combat the pandemics, quantitative analysis of data over a two years period from the outbreak, is lacking. The complexity of Covid-19 recurrent waves is related with the concurrent role of i) the containment measures enforced to mitigate the epidemics spreading ii) the rate of viral gene mutations, and iii) the variable immune response of the host implemented by vaccination. This work focuses on the effect of massive vaccination and gene variants on the recurrent waves in a representative case of countries enforcing mitigation and vaccination strategy. The spreading rate is measured by the ratio between the reproductive number Rt(t) and the doubling time Td(t) called RIC-index and the daily fatalities number. The dynamics of the Covid-19 epidemics have been studied by wavelet analysis and represented by a non-linear helicoid vortex in a 3D space where both RIC-index and fatalities change with time. The onset of periodic recurrent waves has been identified by the transition from convergent to divergent trajectories on the helicoid vortex. We report a main period of recurrent waves of 120 days and the elongation of this period after the vaccination campaign.

Archival influenza virus genomes from Europe reveal genomic variability during the 1918 pandemic

The 1918 influenza pandemic was the deadliest respiratory pandemic of the 20th century and determined the genomic make-up of subsequent human influenza A viruses (IAV). Here, we analyze both the first 1918 IAV genomes from Europe and the first from samples prior to the autumn peak. 1918 IAV genomic diversity is consistent with a combination of local transmission and long-distance dispersal events. Comparison of genomes before and during the pandemic peak shows variation at two sites in the nucleoprotein gene associated with resistance to host antiviral response, pointing at a possible adaptation of 1918 IAV to humans. Finally, local molecular clock modeling suggests a pure pandemic descent of seasonal H1N1 IAV as an alternative to the hypothesis of origination through an intrasubtype reassortment.

For archival pathogens, like pH1N1 Influenza A virus the causative agent of 1918/19 pandemic, only few whole genome sequences exist. Here, Patrono et al. provide one complete and two partial genomes from Germany and find variation in two sites in the nucleoprotein gene in pandemic samples compared to pre-pandemic samples, that are associated with resistance to host antiviral response, pointing at a possible viral adaptation to humans.

Comparison of public health measures taken during Spanish flu and COVID-19 pandemics: A Narrative Review

The similarity of the consequences of COVID-19 reminded us of the destruction caused by the Spanish flu over a century ago and led us to find similarities in the way the two pandemics were handled. PRISMA Guideline was followed for a systematic search to identify eligible published articles. Information about the public health measures adopted during both the pandemics was taken from literature. It was found that there are parallels between the two pandemics in terms of general unpreparedness, attitudes of the community and government, and various policy issues. All the measures implemented in 2020 were the same as those implemented in 1918-1919, with the same trend, uncertainty, early relaxing, and rapid reversals. Even from a scientific standpoint, all the elements were already known. All the issues such as social isolation, intra-family spread, personal protective equipment, medicine types (quinine, aspirin, anti-inflammatories, etc.), immunization requirements, and so on had already been addressed. No doubt, we do have technology today at our disposal for managing the spread of the disease and even spread awareness among people much easily. We also have taken many steps forward in the world of globalization, which make the progression and spread of the pandemic very fast as well. Both factors tend to counter each other and hence make timely public health intervention as important (if not more) today as it was yesterday. When possible, approaches and goals should be found on scientific facts and include ethical input. Finally, we must take careful notice of past local and national lessons to avoid repeating the mistakes done in the past. The development of a strategy ahead of time that includes all levels of government health infrastructure and outlines clear lines of duties and functions is critical. The main objective of this article was to compare the public health measures undertaken during the pandemic of Spanish Flu and the pandemic of COVID-19, and assess the similarities and differences in the public health measures taken during these pandemics. The correlation of the public health measures and the outcomes was assessed and the implication of this article was to be pandemic-ready in the future.

COVID-19 pandemic experiences of secondary school students in Turkey

This study aims at identifying secondary school students' life experiences during the coronavirus (covid-19) pandemic time. With the concept of life experiences used throughout the research; Students' views on their daily routines during the pandemic, changes in their lives, the precautions they take against the epidemic and their continuing education practices are expressed. Phenomenology, which is an approach to qualitative research, was adopted in this study. The study data were gathered through semi-structured interviews and analysed via content analysis. This study was carried out with a study group composed of students who were attending a state school in Turkey and who were included in the scope of lockdown. The study group was determined by criterion sampling, which is one of the purposeful sampling methods. The study group consisted of 20 students, 14 girls and 6 boys. Students' age ranged from 14 to 16 years old. Students are in the 7th and 8th grades of secondary school. According to the content analysis carried out within the framework of this study, secondary school students interpret covid-19 as unhealthiness and unusualness, they spend time at home indulging in academic pastime, daily routine and free time activities. They take necessary precautionary measures regarding hygiene, interpersonal contact and nourishment in order to protect themselves from covid-19 virus. As a result of the covid-19 pandemic, students' daily routines and perceptions have changed, and they have experienced positive and negative emotions in the face of these changes. They tend to receive social support, participate in leisure activities and use personal coping strategies to manage negative emotions and thoughts caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. The participant students have positive and negative thoughts about the distance education conducted during the pandemic time, and they have some suggestions as to education and protection from the virus in order to spend the pandemic days more healthily.

COVID-19 seasonality in temperate countries

INTRODUCTION

While the beneficial effect of vaccination, restrictive measures, and social distancing in reducing mortality due to SARS-CoV-2 is intuitive and taken for granted, seasonality (predictable fluctuation or pattern that recurs or repeats over a one-year period) is still poorly understood and insufficiently taken into consideration. We aimed to examine SARS-CoV-2 seasonality in countries with temperate climate.

METHODS

We identified countries with temperate climate and extracted average country temperature data from the National Center for Environmental information and from the Climate Change Knowledge Portal. We obtained mortality and vaccination rates from an open access database. We used the stringency index derived from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker to quantify restriction policies. We used Spearman's and rank-correlation non-parametric test coefficients to investigate the association between COVID-19 mortality and temperature values. We employed multivariate regression models to analyze how containment measures, vaccinations, and monthly temperatures affected COVID-19 mortality rates.

RESULTS

The time series for daily deaths per million inhabitants and average monthly temperatures of European countries and US states with a temperate climate had a negative correlation (p < 0.0001 for all countries, 0.40 < R < 0.86). When running multivariate regression models with country fixed effects, we noted that mortality rates were significantly lower when temperature were higher. Interestingly, when adding an interaction term between monthly temperatures and vaccination rates, we found that as monthly temperatures dropped, the effect of the vaccination campaign on mortality was larger than at higher temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Deaths attributed to SARS-CoV-2 decreased during the summer period in temperate countries. We found that the effect of vaccination rates on mortality was stronger when temperatures were lower. Stakeholders should consider seasonality in managing SARS-CoV-2 and future pandemics to minimize mortality, limit the pressure on hospitals and intensive care units while maintaining economic and social activities.

COVID-19: Forecasting confirmed cases and deaths with a simple time series model

Forecasting the outcome of outbreaks as early and as accurately as possible is crucial for decision-making and policy implementations. A significant challenge faced by forecasters is that not all outbreaks and epidemics turn into pandemics, making the prediction of their severity difficult. At the same time, the decisions made to enforce lockdowns and other mitigating interventions versus their socioeconomic consequences are not only hard to make, but also highly uncertain. The majority of modeling approaches to outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics take an epidemiological approach that considers biological and disease processes. In this paper, we accept the limitations of forecasting to predict the long-term trajectory of an outbreak, and instead, we propose a statistical, time series approach to modelling and predicting the short-term behavior of COVID-19. Our model assumes a multiplicative trend, aiming to capture the continuation of the two variables we predict (global confirmed cases and deaths) as well as their uncertainty. We present the timeline of producing and evaluating 10-day-ahead forecasts over a period of four months. Our simple model offers competitive forecast accuracy and estimates of uncertainty that are useful and practically relevant.

Anti-pathogen stainless steel combating COVID-19

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) exhibits strong stability on conventional stainless steel (SS) surface, with infectious virus detected even after two days, posing a high risk of virus transmission via surface touching in public areas. In order to mitigate the surface toughing transmission, the present study develops the first SS with excellent anti-pathogen properties against SARS-COV-2. The stabilities of SARS-CoV-2, H1N1 influenza A virus (H1N1), and Escherichia coli (E.coli) on the surfaces of Cu-contained SS, pure Cu, Ag-contained SS, and pure Ag were investigated. It is discovered that pure Ag and Ag-contained SS surfaces do not display apparent inhibitory effects on SARS-CoV-2 and H1N1. In comparison, both pure Cu and Cu-contained SS with a high Cu content exhibit significant antiviral properties. Significantly, the developed anti-pathogen SS with 20 wt% Cu can distinctly reduce 99.75% and 99.99% of viable SARS-CoV-2 on its surface within 3 and 6 h, respectively. In addition, the present anti-pathogen SS also exhibits an excellent inactivation ability for H1N1 influenza A virus (H1N1), and Escherichia coli (E.coli). Interestingly, the Cu ion concentration released from the anti-pathogen SS with 10 wt% and 20 wt% Cu was notably higher than the Ag ion concentration released from Ag and the Ag-contained SS. Lift buttons made of the present anti-pathogen SS are produced using mature powder metallurgy technique, demonstrating its potential applications in public areas and fighting the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and other pathogens via surface touching.

Antigenic characterization of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 viruses

Antigenic characterization of emerging and re-emerging viruses is necessary for the prevention of and response to outbreaks, evaluation of infection mechanisms, understanding of virus evolution, and selection of strains for vaccine development. Primary analytic methods, including enzyme-linked immunosorbent/lectin assays, hemagglutination inhibition, neuraminidase inhibition, micro-neutralization assays, and antigenic cartography, have been widely used in the field of influenza research. These techniques have been improved upon over time for increased analytical capacity, and some have been mobilized for the rapid characterization of the SARS-CoV-2 virus as well as its variants, facilitating the development of highly effective vaccines within 1 year of the initially reported outbreak. While great strides have been made for evaluating the antigenic properties of these viruses, multiple challenges prevent efficient vaccine strain selection and accurate assessment. For influenza, these barriers include the requirement for a large virus quantity to perform the assays, more than what can typically be provided by the clinical samples alone, cell- or egg-adapted mutations that can cause antigenic mismatch between the vaccine strain and circulating viruses, and up to a 6-month duration of vaccine development after vaccine strain selection, which allows viruses to continue evolving with potential for antigenic drift and, thus, antigenic mismatch between the vaccine strain and the emerging epidemic strain. SARS-CoV-2 characterization has faced similar challenges with the additional barrier of the need for facilities with high biosafety levels due to its infectious nature. In this study, we review the primary analytic methods used for antigenic characterization of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 and discuss the barriers of these methods and current developments for addressing these challenges.

Macroeconomics of the Great Influenza Pandemic, 1918-1920

Data for 48 countries during the Great Influenza Pandemic imply flu-related deaths in 1918-1920 of 40 million, 2.1 percent of world population, implying 160 million deaths when applied to current population. Regressions with annual information on flu deaths 1918-1920 and war deaths during WWI imply flu-generated economic declines for GDP and consumption in the typical country of 6 and 8 percent, respectively. Higher flu death rates also decreased realized real returns on stocks and, especially, on short-term government bills.

Ecological Barrier Deterioration Driven by Human Activities Poses Fatal Threats to Public Health due to Emerging Infectious Diseases

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and concerns about several other pandemics in the 21st century have attracted extensive global attention. These emerging infectious diseases threaten global public health and raise urgent studies on unraveling the underlying mechanisms of their transmission from animals to humans. Although numerous works have intensively discussed the cross-species and endemic barriers to the occurrence and spread of emerging infectious diseases, both types of barriers play synergistic roles in wildlife habitats. Thus far, there is still a lack of a complete understanding of viral diffusion, migration, and transmission in ecosystems from a macro perspective. In this review, we conceptualize the ecological barrier that represents the combined effects of cross-species and endemic barriers for either the natural or intermediate hosts of viruses. We comprehensively discuss the key influential factors affecting the ecological barrier against viral transmission from virus hosts in their natural habitats into human society, including transmission routes, contact probability, contact frequency, and viral characteristics. Considering the significant impacts of human activities and global industrialization on the strength of the ecological barrier, ecological barrier deterioration driven by human activities is critically analyzed for potential mechanisms. Global climate change can trigger and expand the range of emerging infectious diseases, and human disturbances promote higher contact frequency and greater transmission possibility. In addition, globalization drives more transmission routes and produces new high-risk regions in city areas. This review aims to provide a new concept for and comprehensive evidence of the ecological barrier blocking the transmission and spread of emerging infectious diseases. It also offers new insights into potential strategies to protect the ecological barrier and reduce the wide-ranging risks of emerging infectious diseases to public health.