Potential drivers and implications of a balanced breeding sex ratio in a small population of an imperiled species with environmental sex determination

Small populations of imperiled species are susceptible to the negative consequences of skewed sex-ratios. In imperiled species with environmental sex determination such as sea turtles, examining sex ratios across a range of environments and population abundance levels can provide insight into factors that influence population resilience, which can then be the foci of management plans for these species. Breeding sex ratios (the ratio of actively breeding males to females during a reproductive season; BSRs) extrapolated from genetic parentage analyses are a common approach for enumerating sex ratios in sea turtles. Such analyses also allow for the characterization of multiple paternity within sea turtle clutches, which should reflect BSRs and breeding behaviors. We characterized the first BSR for a breeding assemblage of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) belonging to the temperate, low-abundance Northern Gulf of Mexico Recovery Unit using genotypes of 16 microsatellite loci from nesting females and hatchlings. Unlike prior studies at both more-tropical and more-temperate, and higher-abundance, Recovery Units in this region, we found a balanced BSR of 1.3:1 males:female and a low incidence (~17%) of multiple paternity. This suggests that there are relatively few males breeding at this assemblage and within this Recovery Unit. Beaches in this region are expected to produce substantial numbers of male hatchlings based on sand temperature data. The relative dearth of mature males may then be due to hydrologic disturbances that disproportionately affect the fitness and survival of male hatchlings, or due to demographic stochasticity. More work is needed to study the factors that might influence male hatchling production and fitness in this region, particularly as climate change is predicted to lead to feminization in global sea turtle populations. Our work demonstrates the broad utility of characterizing BSRs and other sex ratios across a range of populations in imperiled, environmentally sensitive species.

Correlations between local geoclimatic variables and hatchling body size in the sea turtles Caretta caretta and Chelonia mydas

It has been widely demonstrated that air and sand temperatures influence the anatomy of sea turtle hatchlings. We examined the impact of precipitation during the nesting season on the hatchling body size of loggerhead and green turtles from 37 beaches worldwide. Longitudinal data collected between 2012 and 2018 from Florida (US) and from a sample on Bõa Vista Island (Cabo Verde) carried out in 2019 showed that loggerhead body size at hatching was negatively correlated with precipitation, while precipitation was not correlated with hatchling body size in green turtles. A meta-analysis revealed that precipitation is positively correlated with hatchling mass in loggerhead turtles, while it is positively correlated with straight carapace length and width in green turtle hatchlings. The strongest influence of precipitation was found in the middle of the incubation period of loggerhead turtles in Cabo Verde, and we posit that this is due to an increase in the uptake of water for embryonic growth. These findings highlight the great importance of understanding the correlated effects of regional environmental variables, such as precipitation, on the development of sea turtle hatchlings and will have an impact on the evaluation of ongoing conservation and climate change discussions.

Green and Hawksbill Sea turtles of Eastern Atlantic: New insights into a globally important rookery in the Gulf of Guinea

Sea turtles are critical components of marine ecosystems, and their conservation is important for Ocean Governance and Global Planet Health. However, there is limited knowledge of their ecology in the Gulf of Guinea. To fill this knowledge gap, this study presents the first integrative assessment of green and hawksbill turtles in the region, combining nesting surveys over 9 years and telemetry data, to offer insights into these population dynamics, and behaviours, including nesting preferences, morphological and reproductive parameters, diving patterns and inter-nesting core-use areas. Both green and hawksbill turtles are likely making a recovery on São Tomé, potentially driven by sustained conservation efforts. There are preliminary indications of recovery, but we interpret this cautiously. Coupled with satellite tracking, this study estimated that 482 to 736 green turtles and 135 to 217 hawksbills nest on the beaches of São Tomé. Their movements overlap significantly with a proposed Marine Protected Area (MPA), which suggests they may be well placed for conservation if managed appropriately. However, the presence of artisanal fisheries and emerging threats, such as sand mining and unregulated tourism, highlight the urgent need for robust management strategies that align global conservation objectives with local socioeconomic realities. This study significantly enhances our understanding of the ecology and conservation needs of the green and hawksbill turtles in the Gulf of Guinea. The insights gleaned here can contribute to the development of tailored conservation strategies that benefit these populations and the ecosystem services upon which they depend.

Nocturnal emergence facilitated by thermally‐induced hatching in the Chinese softshell turtle, Pelodiscus sinensis

The coincidence of hatching and emergence events with favorable conditions is crucial for turtle survival. Nocturnal emergence has been widely documented across marine and freshwater turtles, and has long been suggested as an adaptive behavior that reduces risks of heat stress and predation. To our knowledge, however, studies related to nocturnal emergence have mainly focused on the post‐hatching behaviors of turtles, and very few experimental studies have been performed to investigate the effects of hatching time on the distribution of emergence times over the course of a day. Here, we visually monitored the activity of the Chinese softshell turtle (Pelodiscus sinensis)—a shallow‐nesting freshwater turtle—from hatching to emergence. Our study provides evidence for the novel finding that (i) the timing of synchronous hatching events in P. sinensis coincides with the time of day when nest temperatures decrease, (ii) the synchrony between hatching and emergence may further facilitate their nocturnal emergence, and (iii) synchronous behaviors of hatchlings in the nest may be effective in reducing the risk of hatchling predation, and predation is more likely to occur in the asynchronous hatching groups. This study suggests that the hatching of shallow‐nesting P. sinensis in response to temperature changes in the nest might be an adaptive nocturnal emergence strategy.

Mitigating the effects of climate change on the nests of sea turtles with artificial irrigation

For sea turtles, like many oviparous species, increasing temperatures during development threaten to increase embryonic mortality, alter offspring quality, and potentially create suboptimal primary sex ratios. Various methods are being implemented to mitigate the effects of climate change on reproductive success, but these methods, such as breeding programs, translocations, and shading, are often invasive and expensive. Irrigation is an alternative strategy for cooling nests that, depending on location, can be implemented relatively quickly and cheaply. However, multiple factors, including ambient conditions, nest substrate, and species characteristics, can influence irrigation success. Additionally, irrigation can vary in duration, frequency, and the volume of water applied to nests, which influences the cooling achieved and embryonic survival. Thus, it is critical to understand how to maximize cooling and manage risks before implementing irrigation as a nest-cooling strategy. We reviewed the literature on nest irrigation to examine whether artificial irrigation is feasible as a population management tool. Key factors that affected cooling were the volume of water applied and the frequency of applications. Embryonic responses varied with species, ambient conditions, and the timing of irrigation during development. Nest inundation was the key risk to a successful irrigation regime. Future irrigation regimes must identify clear targets, either primary or adult sex ratios, that maximize population viability. Monitoring population responses and adjusting the irrigation regime in response to population characteristics will be critical. Most studies reported on the manipulation of only one or two variables, further research is required to understand how altering multiple factors in an irrigation regime influences the cooling achieved and embryonic responses.

A morphologist, a modeler, and an endocrinologist consider sea turtle sex ratios in a changing climate. Some wine was involved

Because the sex of sea turtles is determined by temperature during embryonic development, many populations are vulnerable to increased bias in primary sex ratios as global temperatures rise. Higher temperatures produce more females, and some populations are already showing years with all-female offspring production. But because sea turtles take decades to mature and have long adult lifespans, these primary sex ratio biases can take years to impact adult sex ratios, and the males from cohorts that are produced during cooler years may compensate for the sex ratio bias if they can breed more frequently and with multiple females. To date, little is known about male sea turtle reproductive behavior, making predictions of sex ratio skew impacts highly speculative. We used data from southern Florida loggerhead sea turtle nests to parameterize a simple population model to explore the effects of an increase in the proportion of female hatchlings over time on population trends, effective population size (Ne), and quasi-extinction probability. We also tested the effects of increasing the frequency of relatively high male production years to simulate potential mitigation strategies. While heuristic rather than predictive, our results expectedly show a rise in nest counts due to the increase in females over time, followed by population decline as males become limiting. Population collapse due to increased female bias will take many decades to occur, but sex ratio skew can have large impacts on Ne, and thus increase the potential for inbreeding. An increase in the frequency of male production years, even just one additional “good male year” per decade, can help mitigate these outcomes if the rate of feminization is not too rapid. Male breeding frequency and mating success are critical drivers of the results and must be prioritized for research.

Minor Sea Turtle Nesting Areas May Remain Unnoticed without Specific Monitoring: The Case of the Largest Mediterranean Island (Sicily, Italy)

Simple Summary

Before protecting sea turtles’ nesting sites from coastal development, these sites must be identified and evaluated. This is particularly difficult with minor nesting sites distributed over large areas. We report on the case of Sicily, the largest Mediterranean island with 464 km of sandy shores, where sea turtle nesting activity was basically unknown until recent years when specific projects focused on this topic. This may be the case for many other areas. A total of 323 nests have been reported in the 1944–2021 period (mostly in the last decade). However, the real number of nests occurring annually is still unknown and more research and monitoring is needed. In sea turtles, sex is determined by the incubation temperature, with high temperatures producing more females, and with global warming the scarcity of males may become a problem. Nests in Sicily seem to produce more males and therefore this area may be important for the species’ conservation in the future.

Abstract

Identifying coastal tracts suitable for sea turtle reproduction is crucial for sea turtle conservation in a context of fast coastal development and climate change. In contrast to nesting aggregations, diffuse nesting is elusive and assessing nesting levels is challenging. A total of 323 nesting events by the loggerhead sea turtle Caretta caretta have been reported in Sicily, the largest Mediterranean island, in the 1944–2021 period, mostly in the last decade. Specific monitoring efforts are the most likely explanation for such an increase and shows that sea turtle nesting may be underestimated or completely ignored in many areas with scattered nesting. The real nesting level along the 464 km sandy shores of Sicily is still unknown and more research is needed. The observed incubation period was relatively long (57 d) suggesting that a majority of males are produced in Sicily, in contrast to the typical female-biased sex ratio of sea turtles. In a context of climate warming producing sex ratios more skewed towards females, the potential of Sicily as a male-producing area should be further investigated. Other reproductive parameters are provided, such as clutch size and hatching and emergence success. A negative effect of relocation on the latter two was observed.

Resilient Eggs: Highly Successful Loggerhead Sea Turtle Nesting Sites Vary in Their Characteristics

Sea turtle nest success, defined as the number of eggs in a nest that successfully hatch and emerge, is closely linked to environmental conditions. Interacting biotic and abiotic factors influence hatching and hatchling emergence success. To date, combinations of multiple factors interacting together, which result in highly successful sea turtle nests are not well understood. Using 25 years of historic nest data and local expert experience, we identified five historically successful loggerhead (Caretta caretta) nesting beaches (hotspots) along the Florida (United States) Atlantic coast and measured nest environments along with the nest success. Principal component analysis was used to reduce 12 environmental variables so that the relative contributions of sand characteristics, nest temperatures, sand moisture, and nest location were considered. The nest environments differed among nesting beaches and were broadly segregated into two distinct climates: subtropical (hot and humid) and warm-temperate (warm and dry). We found that nests at subtropical sites, compared with warm-temperate sites, were characterized by environmental gradients in contrasting ways. Nest locations were predominantly mid-beach in subtropical sites but clustered at higher elevations and closer to the base of the dune at warm-temperate climate sites. Collectively, highly successful nest hotspots represent a mosaic of abiotic factors providing conditions that promote successful hatching and emergence. This new perspective on consistently successful loggerhead nesting beach traits demonstrate that the key traits of sea turtle nesting habitat vary with prevailing climate type and should be managed accordingly.

A review of the effects of incubation conditions on hatchling phenotypes in non-squamate reptiles

Developing embryos of oviparous reptiles show substantial plasticity in their responses to environmental conditions during incubation, which can include altered sex ratios, morphology, locomotor performance and hatching success. While recent research and reviews have focused on temperature during incubation, emerging evidence suggests other environmental variables are also important in determining hatchling phenotypes. Understanding how the external environment influences development is important for species management and requires identifying how environmental variables exert their effects individually, and how they interact to affect developing embryos. To address this knowledge gap, we review the literature on phenotypic responses in oviparous non-squamate (i.e., turtles, crocodilians and tuataras) reptile hatchlings to temperature, moisture, oxygen concentration and salinity. We examine how these variables influence one another and consider how changes in each variable alters incubation conditions and thus, hatchling phenotypes. We explore how incubation conditions drive variation in hatchling phenotypes and influence adult populations. Finally, we highlight knowledge gaps and suggest future research directions.

Effects of moisture during incubation on green sea turtle (Chelonia mydas) development, morphology and performance

While the effect of temperature on embryonic development in sea turtles has been well studied over recent years, our understanding of the effect of substrate moisture, another important environmental variable, is limited. High sand moisture decreases nest temperature through evaporative and direct cooling during rainfall, but its direct effect on hatchling development, morphology and performance is unclear. To address this knowledge gap, we incubated 40 green sea turtle Chelonia mydas clutches in a beach hatchery under either high (~8% v/v) or low (~5% v/v) sand moisture concentrations for the duration of embryonic development. In half of the clutches, temperature sensors were deployed to measure any effect of sand moisture on nest temperature. As hatchlings emerged, we measured body size and locomotory performance during the first 24 h, an important period of frenzied activity for sea turtles. We excavated clutches post-emergence to determine hatching success, emergence success and to determine the stage of embryonic death for unsuccessful eggs. High moisture concentrations increased incubation duration, decreased nest temperature and had marginal effects on hatchling morphology, but no effect on hatching success, stage of embryonic death, crawling speed or initial swimming performance. However, after 24 h of swimming, hatchlings from high-moisture clutches produced less mean swim thrust and spent less time powerstroking than hatchlings from low-moisture clutches, suggesting reduced swimming endurance and potentially impacting the ability of hatchlings to successfully disperse. The effect of moisture on nest temperature and hatchling endurance highlights the importance of considering rainfall patterns when predicting future impacts of climate change on sea turtle populations.

Effects of global warming on species with temperature-dependent sex determination: Bridging the gap between empirical research and management

Global warming could threaten over 400 species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) worldwide, including all species of sea turtle. During embryonic development, rising temperatures might lead to the overproduction of one sex and, in turn, could bias populations' sex ratios to an extent that threatens their persistence. If climate change predictions are correct, and biased sex ratios reduce population viability, species with TSD may go rapidly extinct unless adaptive mechanisms, whether behavioural, physiological or molecular, exist to buffer these temperature-driven effects. Here, we summarize the discovery of the TSD phenomenon and its still elusive evolutionary significance. We then review the molecular pathways underpinning TSD in model species, along with the hormonal mechanisms that interact with temperatures to determine an individual's sex. To illustrate evolutionary mechanisms that can affect sex determination, we focus on sea turtle biology, discussing both the adaptive potential of this threatened TSD taxon, and the risks associated with conservation mismanagement.

Influence of short-term temperature drops on sex-determination in sea turtles

All sea turtles exhibit temperature-dependent sex-determination, where warmer temperatures produce mostly females and cooler temperatures produce mostly males. As global temperatures continue to rise, sea turtle sex-ratios are expected to become increasingly female-biased, threatening the long-term viability of many populations. Nest temperatures are dependent on sand temperature, and heavy rainfall events reduce sand temperatures for a brief period. However, it is unknown whether these short-term temperature drops are large and long enough to produce male hatchlings. To discover if short-term temperature drops within the sex-determining period can lead to male hatchling production, we exposed green and loggerhead turtle eggs to short-term temperature drops conducted in constant temperature rooms. We dropped incubation temperature at four different times during the sex-determining period for a duration of either 3 or 7 days to mimic short-term drops in temperature caused by heavy rainfall in nature. Some male hatchlings were produced when exposed to temperature drops for as little as 3 days, but the majority of male production occurred when eggs were exposed to 7 days of lowered temperature. More male hatchlings were produced when the temperature drop occurred during the middle of the sex-determining period in green turtles, and the beginning and end of the sex-determining period in loggerhead turtles. Inter-clutch variation was evident in the proportion of male hatchlings produced, indicating that maternal and or genetic factors influence male hatchling production. Our findings have management implications for the long-term preservation of sea turtles on beaches that exhibit strongly female-biased hatchling sex-ratios.

Extreme rainfall events and cooling of sea turtle clutches: Implications in the face of climate warming

Understanding how climate change impacts species and ecosystems is integral to conservation. When studying impacts of climate change, warming temperatures are a research focus, with much less attention given to extreme weather events and their impacts. Here, we show how localized, extreme rainfall events can have a major impact on a species that is endangered in many parts of its range. We report incubation temperatures from the world's largest green sea turtle rookery, during a breeding season when two extreme rainfall events occurred. Rainfall caused nest temperatures to drop suddenly and the maximum drop in temperature for each rain-induced cooling averaged 3.6°C (n = 79 nests, min = 1.0°C, max = 7.4°C). Since green sea turtles have temperature-dependent sex determination, with low incubation temperatures producing males, such major rainfall events may have a masculinization effect on primary sex ratios. Therefore, in some cases, extreme rainfall events may provide a "get-out-of-jail-free card" to avoid complete feminization of turtle populations as climate warming continues.

Sea turtle hatchling locomotor performance: incubation moisture effects, ontogeny and species-specific patterns

Incubation conditions are critical in determining numerous traits in reptilian neonates. This is particularly significant in species with low offspring survival such as sea turtle species, because of the extremely high predation rates that hatchlings face during their initial dispersal from nesting beaches. Hatchlings that develop in suboptimal nest environments are likely to be smaller, slower and more susceptible to predation than hatchlings from optimal nest environments. Previous studies have focused on the effects of temperature on hatchling traits, but few have investigated the effects of moisture concentrations, despite moisture levels in nests influencing hatchling size, sex, incubation duration, and hatching success. Here, we incubated eggs of three sea turtle species at various moisture levels and tested the terrestrial and aquatic locomotor performance of the resultant hatchlings during the frenzy and post-frenzy period. We also compared and evaluated the ontogeny of early locomotor performance for each species over the first months of life. Drier incubation conditions produced hatchlings that crawled more slowly and took longer to self-right than hatchlings from wetter incubation conditions. There was no difference in swimming performance associated with moisture treatments. We suggest that moisture in the nest environment during incubation may influence hatchling performance via their initial hydration levels. Thus, nest moisture influences terrestrial performance (i.e., escaping from the nest and dispersing across the beach), although upon entering the ocean hatchlings have the opportunity to rehydrate by drinking and thus, differences in locomotor performance associated with moisture treatments cease.

Linking Ecology, Morphology, and Behavior to Conservation: Lessons Learned from Studies of Sea Turtles

Here we describe examples of studies that have contributed both to a basic understanding of the biology of imperiled marine turtles, and to their management and conservation. Key elements include, first and foremost, correctly identifying species that differ strikingly in their morphology at different life stages because with growth, they change size by several orders of magnitude and have accompanying shape changes. We also review comprehensive field studies documenting the need for management actions to correct abnormal shifts in sex ratios caused by climate change. We highlight the need to describe those perturbations in terms that are clear to regulators and personnel responsible for management and conservation policies. Finally, we review several basic studies that enhance our understanding of how selection has shaped morphological, functional, and performance attributes, and describe how that knowledge can be applied to the tasks required for enhancing species recovery.

Temporal variation in maternal nest choice and its consequences for lizard embryos

Microhabitat choice of nest sites is an important maternal effect that influences the survival and development of embryos in oviparous species. Embryos of many species display a high degree of plasticity in response to developmental environments, which places maternal nesting behavior under strong selective pressure, particularly in temporally changing environments. Nesting behavior varies widely across taxa that exhibit diverse reproductive strategies. The brown anole (Anolis sagrei), for example, lays one egg every 7–10 days across an extended reproductive season from April to October. This aspect of their reproduction provides an opportunity to examine temporal shifts in nesting behavior and its consequences on egg survival and offspring development under seasonally changing climatic conditions. We conducted a two-part study to quantify temporal variation in maternal nesting behavior and its effect on development of A. sagrei embryos. First, we measured nest micro-environments over the nesting season. Second, we “planted” eggs across the landscape at our field site to examine the influence of nest conditions on egg survival and hatchling phenotypes. We also incubated eggs inside chambers in the field to decouple effects of nest moisture from those of other environmental variables (e.g., temperature). Females chose nest sites with higher moisture and lower temperatures relative to what was generally available across the landscape during the nesting season. In addition, eggs exposed to relatively cool temperatures had higher hatching success, and high nest moisture increased egg survival and body condition of hatchlings. Overall, we provide evidence in the field that maternal nesting behavior facilitates offspring survival.

Incubation environment and parental identity affect sea turtle development and hatchling phenotype

For reptiles, the incubation environment experienced by embryos during development plays a major role in many biological processes. The unprecedented rate of climate change makes it critical to understand the effects that the incubation environment has on developing embryos, particularly in imperiled species such as chelonians. Consequently, a number of studies have focused on the effects of different environmental conditions on several developmental processes and hatchling phenotypic traits. In addition to the incubation environment, it is also essential to understand how parental contributions can influence hatchling quality. This is the first study that investigates the effects of parental origin and incubation conditions on sea turtle embryonic development and hatchling phenotype in nests incubating in the field (rather than under controlled laboratory conditions). Here, we used the loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) to investigate the effects of parental origin (clutch), incubation temperature, and the nest hydric environment on embryonic growth, incubation durations, hatching success, and hatchling phenotype. Our results show that nest moisture and temperature affect embryo mass towards the last third of development, with hatchling size positively correlated with nest moisture content, and maternal origin had a strong impact on hatching success and hatchling size regardless of the incubation conditions. The results from this experiment identify multiple factors that affect turtle embryonic development under field incubation conditions, a fundamental consideration when interpreting the potential impacts of climate change on reptilian development.

The impact of sand moisture on the temperature-sex ratio responses of developing loggerhead (Caretta caretta) sea turtles

All species of sea turtles exhibit a cooler male/warmer female temperature-sex ratio response. Field and experimental studies on loggerhead sea turtle sex ratios suggest that increased sand moisture impacts sea turtle sex ratios with, and perhaps beyond, a cooling effect. This study examines how varying sand moisture impacts the embryo's response to temperature. Across three years, loggerhead (Caretta caretta) sea turtle eggs were incubated at temperatures ranging from 28.0°C to 33.0°C. Groups of eggs were incubated in one of three volumetric moisture contents: low, medium, or high. Temperatures inside the group of eggs were recorded throughout incubation. Hatchlings were raised for 2-3 months and sex was identified laparoscopically. We calculated temperature response curves for groups of eggs incubated at each moisture level. Pivotal temperatures did not different among eggs incubated in different sand moistures. The transitional ranges of temperatures (TRT) for eggs incubated in high moisture and low moisture were narrower than the TRT for eggs incubated in medium moisture. The results of this study are crucial for understanding how sea turtle embryos respond to temperature directly or indirectly under different moisture conditions. Current sex ratio predictions rely on the embryos response to temperature only and may inaccurately estimate sex ratios especially during periods of heavy rainfall or drought.

Effects of local climate on loggerhead hatchling production in Brazil: Implications from climate change

Sea turtle eggs are heavily influenced by the environment in which they incubate, including effects on hatching success and hatchling viability (hatchling production). It is crucial to understand how the hatchling production of sea turtles is influenced by local climate and how potential changes in climate may impact future hatchling production. Generalized Additive Models were used to determine the relationship of six climatic variables at different temporal scales on loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) hatchling production at seventeen nesting beaches in Bahia, Espirito Santo, and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Using extreme and conservative climate change scenarios throughout the 21^st century, potential impacts on future hatching success (the number of hatched eggs in a nest) were predicted using the climatic variable(s) that best described hatchling production at each nesting beach. Air temperature and precipitation were found to be the main drivers of hatchling production throughout Brazil. CMIP5 climate projections are for a warming of air temperature at all sites throughout the 21^st century, while projections for precipitation vary regionally. The more tropical nesting beaches in Brazil, such as those in Bahia, are projected to experience declines in hatchling production, while the more temperate nesting beaches, such as those in Rio de Janeiro, are projected to experience increases in hatchling production by the end of the 21^st century.

Warmer and wetter conditions will reduce offspring production of hawksbill turtles in Brazil under climate change

Climate change is expected to impact animals that are heavily reliant on environmental factors, such as sea turtles, since the incubation of their eggs, hatching success and sex ratio are influenced by the environment in which eggs incubate. As climate change progresses it is therefore important to understand how climatic conditions influence their reproductive output and the ramifications to population stability. Here, we examined the influences of five climatic variables (air temperature, accumulated and average precipitation, humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed) at different temporal scales on hawksbill sea turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata) hatchling production at ten nesting beaches within two regions of Brazil (five nesting beaches in Rio Grande do Norte and five in Bahia). Air temperature and accumulated precipitation were the main climatic drivers of hawksbill hatching success (number of eggs hatched within a nest) across Brazil and in Rio Grande do Norte, while air temperature and average precipitation were the main climatic drivers of hatching success at Bahia. Solar radiation was the main climatic driver of emergence success (number of hatchlings that emerged from total hatched eggs within a nest) at both regions. Warmer temperatures and higher solar radiation had negative effects on hatchling production, while wetter conditions had a positive effect. Conservative and extreme climate scenarios show air temperatures are projected to increase at this site, while precipitation projections vary between scenarios and regions throughout the 21st century. We predicted hatching success of undisturbed nests (no recorded depredation or storm-related impacts) will decrease in Brazil by 2100 as a result of how this population is influenced by local climate. This study shows the determining effects of different climate variables and their combinations on an important and critically endangered marine species.

Experimental assessment of the effects of moisture on loggerhead sea turtle hatchling sex ratios

Many reptiles have temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD). Sex determination in marine turtles is described by a cool-male, warm-female pattern. Nest sand temperature strongly influences sea turtle embryo development and sex differentiation. Yet, variation in hatchling sex ratios is explained only partially by nest temperature and can be predicted only at the warmest and coolest temperatures. Hence, other factors during development influence sex determination. Rainfall is a common environmental variable that may impact development and sex determination. We experimentally evaluated bias in sex ratio production associated with nest moisture. Conditions tested in surrogate nests were sand moisture in combination with (i) very restricted evaporation, (ii) moderate evaporation (allowing evaporative cooling), and (iii) evaporative cooling plus cooling from rain-temperature water. We collected eggs from 32 unique loggerhead (Caretta caretta L.) turtle clutches, distributed them among the three different conditions, and incubated the eggs until they hatched. All hatchlings were raised for several months and sex was verified laparoscopically to establish sex ratios for each treatment. The nests were expected to produce 50:50 sex ratios or a moderate female bias (∼70%) based on incubation temperatures. All experimental treatments produced high male bias (87-96%). These results support the hypothesis that moisture impacts sex ratios through evaporation and rainfall-based cooling. High male bias was observed in nests with and without restricted evaporative cooling and no direct cooling due to watering as well as those nests hydrated via cool (rainwater temperature) water. High moisture conditions may produce males through thermal or other mechanisms, highlighting the importance of examining other nest environmental factors on sex determination.

Climate change increases the production of female hatchlings at a northern sea turtle rookery

The most recent climate change projections show a global increase in temperatures, along with major adjustments to precipitation, throughout the 21st century. Species exhibiting temperature-dependent sex determination are highly susceptible to such changes since the incubation environment influences critical offspring characteristics such as survival and sex ratio. Here we show that the mean incubation duration of loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nests from a high-density nesting beach on Bald Head Island, North Carolina, USA has decreased significantly over the past 25 yr. This decrease in incubation duration is significantly positively correlated with mean air temperature and negatively correlated with mean precipitation during the nesting season. Additionally, although no change in hatching success was detected during this same period, a potentially detrimental consequence of shorter incubation durations is that they lead to the production of primarily female offspring. Given that global temperatures are predicted to increase by as much as 4°C over the next century, the mass feminization of sea turtle hatchlings is a high-priority concern. While presently limited in number, studies using long-term data sets to examine the temporal correlation between offspring characteristics and climatic trends are essential for understanding the scope and direction of climate change effects on species persistence.

Climate Impacts on Sea Turtle Breeding Phenology in Greece and Associated Foraging Habitats in the Wider Mediterranean Region

Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change impacts in both their terrestrial (nesting beach) and oceanic habitats. From 1982 to 2012, air and sea surface temperatures at major high use foraging and nesting regions (n = 5) of loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nesting in Greece have steadily increased. Here, we update the established relationships between sea surface temperature and nesting data from Zakynthos (latitude: 37.7°N), a major nesting beach, while also expanding these analyses to include precipitation and air temperature and additional nesting data from two other key beaches in Greece: Kyparissia Bay (latitude: 37.3°N) and Rethymno, Crete (latitude: 35.4°N). We confirmed that nesting phenology at Zakynthos has continued to be impacted by breeding season temperature; however, temperature has no consistent relationship with nest numbers, which are declining on Zakynthos and Crete but increasing at Kyparissia. Then using statistically downscaled outputs of 14 climate models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we projected future shifts in nesting for these populations. Based on the climate models, we projected that temperature at the key foraging and breeding sites (Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Crete, Gulf of Gabès and Zakynthos/Kyparissia Bay; overall latitudinal range: 33.0°-45.8°N) for loggerhead turtles nesting in Greece will rise by 3-5°C by 2100. Our calculations indicate that the projected rise in air and ocean temperature at Zakynthos could cause the nesting season in this major rookery to shift to an earlier date by as much as 50-74 days by 2100. Although an earlier onset of the nesting season may provide minor relief for nest success as temperatures rise, the overall climatic changes to the various important habitats will most likely have an overall negative impact on this population.